Coronavirus

204,347 Views | 4278 Replies | Last: 10 hrs ago by Sierrawolf
Mormad
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Yup
Wayland
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Mormad said:

TheStorm said:

For those that are FAR more intelligent than I am... and how does this compare to the Moses Cone System?

https://www.wect.com/2020/06/26/nhrmc-releases-covid-data-state-rep-demands-nc-harden-virus-directives-hospitals/


We are testing all elective surgeries
We are testing all admits from the ER and all poorly responsive that can't answer questions

Last week I got pushback from anesthesia about bringing up a dying patient with a posterior fossa hemorrhage in the ED because his rapid covid wasn't back and he didn't want his team potentially exposed. I blew a gasket and had the ED doc intubate him and I rolled him up to the OR.

This week I discharged a negative post op patient who bounced back to the ED the next day for re admission and he had to be tested again to be put in for obs for one night.

A doc friend had a community exposure, and because he wasn't symptomatic he couldn't get the rapid test. Could get the 48 hr test but by then could have exposed many staff and patients and friends if the data out of China suggesting 44% exposure risk in pre symptomatics has any validity. And even if you test negative, can you trust that to make decisions about exposing others to yourself??? I would personally, but it's imperfect at best.
Is there a big difference in protocol for going to the OR when CV19+ vs non-CV19+?

Seems like some of the testing procedures weren't designed for practicality?
TheStorm
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Performed a C5/C6, C6/C7 fusion on me in 2003. at Cone.
Daviewolf83
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Wayland said:

If you want to go down some rabbit holes on twitter. Interesting theory (follow some of his sub-tweet theads in there as well). Brings up theory for discussion, not claiming proof.




Here is the thread reader version:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1276870968112115714.html
Thanks for posting this chart. Of course, if you say anything about the protests potentially being a contributor to the uptick in hospitalizations on social media, the mob will try to shout you down. The key is hospitalizations declined for a significant period of time, before rising in the last 14 days or so. Yes, it is everyone right to protest. It is also everyone's right to attend political events and one is not worse than the other, despite what some in thee media would try to say.
Mormad
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If positive then no elective surgery for at 21 days

If positive and emergent, then there are special ORs, special PPE, special precautions, etc
Mormad
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You'd have to go to Alabama to see him now...
Wayland
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Quote:

6/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
45,853
NC Deaths
1154
Currently Hospitalized
829 <- 85% still stable since increased from 73% yesterday reporting
Completed Tests
651,421

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
723 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
97 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+36 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

334 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
820 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+24)

193 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1196* and NandO is at 1169 deaths

751 positive cases over 12,942 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.

6/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
46,855
NC Deaths
1168
Currently Hospitalized
846 <- 86% reporting (was 829 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
667,422

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
729 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

340 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
828 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1208* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1002 positive cases over 16,001 new tests. 6.3% positive rate.

Dates of deaths reported today:
5/22 - 1
5/31 - 1
6/2 - 1
6/13 -2
6/14 - 2
6/15 - 3
6/16 - 4

Don't know who the back log belongs to. I think the majority of the deaths today were reported out of Meck/Guilford. But since they are also the two hardest places, just as likely to be the current reports.
6/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
48,188
NC Deaths
1175
Currently Hospitalized
857 <- 88% reporting (was 846 at 86% yesterday) still roughly stable. higher % report.
Completed Tests
693,678

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
733 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

343 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
832 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+4)

195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1222* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1333 positive cases over 26,256 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

7 deaths reported today occurred between 6/11 and 6/17

54% of the delta in the case ethnicity data (where available) were Hispanic.
6/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
49,840
NC Deaths
1197
Currently Hospitalized
871 <- 91% reporting (was 857 at 88% yesterday) new high, but higher %. Roughly stable
Completed Tests
712,313

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
745 Deaths are now Congregate (+12)
105 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

347 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
850 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+18)

191 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1235* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1652 positive cases over 18,638 new tests. 8.9% positive rate.

These hospitalizations need to go down. The only bright side is that the % of reporting hospitals has increased each day that the overall number has increased. The number is relatively stable but NEEDS to decline.

The case total is lower than last Friday, so not a new high. That is a positive we see a little case stabilization, maybe.

16 of the deaths reported today are from the last week. There was an adjustment and one death was removed from 5/27. One death reported today was as far back as 5/17, one additional on 5/31.

Deaths are still being driven by congregate facilities.

Of the cases with a reported ethnicity, over 50% of new cases are Hispanic.
6/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
51389
NC Deaths
1212
Currently Hospitalized
883 <- 87% reporting (was 871 at 91% yesterday) new high.
Completed Tests
731,341

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
749 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
106 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+15 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

357 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
855 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

192 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1262* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1197 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1549 positive cases over 19028 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Hospitalizations creeping up. Both ICU and overall are higher. Still need to turn that corner. First day in a while not driven by congregate deaths. Most of the ICU increases are coming out of EHPC (Eastern NC) and MHPC (Meck). Most other groups are relatively stable.
6/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
52801
NC Deaths
1220
Currently Hospitalized
845<- 74% reporting (was 883 at 87% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Stable/Small increase
Completed Tests
745,775


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
752 Deaths are now Congregate (+3)
108 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

360 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
860 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

190 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1269* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1197 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1412 positive cases over 14434 new tests. 9.8% positive rate.

3 day case rate reported last 6/12-6/14 = 4638, 6/19-621 = 4613. Cases stable week over week.

60% of new cases with ethnicity reported today are Hispanic. Need to keep focusing resources there to help.
6/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
53605
NC Deaths
1223
Currently Hospitalized
870<- 73% reporting (was 845 at 74% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Higher # admits.
Completed Tests
757.345


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
754 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
109 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

360 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
863 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

191 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1273* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1220 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

804 positive cases over 11570 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

Less than half of tests today had ethnicity data, would be interesting to know sourcing.

All 3 reported deaths were from 6/20-6/21.
6/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
54,453
NC Deaths
1251
Currently Hospitalized
915 new high <- 91% reporting (was 870 at 73% yesterday) Higher reporting %. Higher # admits.
Completed Tests
773,828

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
771 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
114 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

366 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
885 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

196 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1275* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1223 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

848 positive cases over 16,483 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.



Highest hospitalizations, but also one of the highest reporting days in weeks. This continues to creep up slowly and will be the reason for whatever Executive Orders come next, but dangerous to not provide context to this number.

Meck is having a tough time maintaining their peak case counts from last week. Still high but not as high.

Date of Death not updated yet.
I suspect a number of these deaths are lagged data. There has been a large gap in the DHHS data, and I feel like they were waiting for a quiet Tuesday to throw this all in. We will see if I am right. EDIT: WRAL showed a bit of a jump as well, so I expect we might see the lag data from the smaller counties come in over the next day as well.

Peak at the locations of deaths reported today, 5 Cumberland, 4 Robeson, and 3 Chatham. No other county above 2. I believe these are some of the counties I identified a while back as having a large disconnect with DHHS reporting. Most of this is 1 and 2 offs in smaller counties.

EDIT: As I was saying, 8 of the deaths added to the graph today are over 2 weeks old and an additional 3 are between 1 and 2 weeks old.

Deaths included from today are from 5/24, 5/25, 5/26, 6/1, 6/4(2), 6/5, 6/6, 6/11, and 6/13(2). The remaining deaths are from the last 7 days.


6/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
56,174
NC Deaths
1271 (Date of Death Graphy only lists 1266 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
906 <- 88% reporting (was 915 at 91% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Lower # admits.
Completed Tests
791,285

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
781 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
120 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

370 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
901 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

197 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1294* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1251 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1721 positive cases over 17,457 new tests. 9.9% positive rate.

Case data and day of death data have not been updated. Huge case dump to justify(?) whatever Cooper's decision is. Will be interesting to see if the next two days are also huge spikes, the high reporting usually comes later in the week.

Interesting. When I break down their county data, I only get 1461 cases assigned to counties. That leaves 260 cases that are not being assigned a location. I wonder why that is? Something about this feel a little like a data dump again.

Meck+ 247
Wake+ 147
Guilford +65
Forsyth +64
No other county over 40 new cases.

Even worse they have screwed up their Total Deaths by Date of Deaths graph by adding 20 deaths today in the Outbreaks and Clusters tab but only 15 in their Date of Death tab... so there is that. They are also now listing a missing date of death... which is kind of odd they don't know when someone died but they know how.

Even worse than stating that they only added 15 deaths to the chart today, they somehow actually added 22 instead of 20. HOT MESS.

Deaths again high from Cumberland and Guilford and DHHS now reporting higher deaths than the counties themselves report, wish I know why the reporting discrepancies.
6/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
57,183
NC Deaths
1290 (Date of Death Graph only lists 1284 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
891 <- 90% reporting (was 906 at 88% yesterday) Higher reporting %. Lower # admits.
Completed Tests
811,278

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
787 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
130 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+19 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

373 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
917 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

200 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1317* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1009 positive cases over 19,993 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

Hospitalizations down. Cases lowest Thursday in weeks. Check out what I bolded from yesterday's post when I noticed the odd early week case spike.

Deaths were +22 on the Date of Death chart today (regardless of what they say). One death was removed from 5/8.
Deaths added today by date 5/15, 5/23, 5/27, 5/28, 6/3, 6/8, 6/13, 6/15(2), 6/16(2), 6/17, 6/19, 6/20, 6/22, 6/23(5), and 6/24(3).

So significant lagged data in the report today. It looks like they slide 6 of the old Robeson deaths and 4 old Meck deaths into today's data. Been waiting a long time for that Robeson reconciliation.

And notice yesterday when I remarked there were about an extra 260 cases that were missing a county from yesterday. Well guess what there are about about an extra 260 cases that are assigned a county over what was reported as a total. In the county level data 1254 cases were added even though the overall count was 1009. Yesterday they reported 1461 county cases but 1721 overall cases.

Data was juiced.
6/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
58,818
NC Deaths
1303 (Date of Death Graph only lists 1297 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
892 <- 90% reporting (was 891 at 90% yesterday) Same reporting %. One addl # admits.
Completed Tests
836,725

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
793 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
132 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+19 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

378 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
925 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

203 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1338* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1635 positive cases over 25447 new tests. 6.4% positive rate.

Date of death chart makes no sense today. 5 deaths were taken off of 6/15-6/16. One death was added as far back as 5/15. And 2 additional no dates of death were added. I just can't make any sense of the changes.

Nothing that unusual the county data. Deaths seem spread around (Columbus and Forsyth with 2)

Meck a +330 in cases, Wake +159. Durham +77, Forsyth +73, Guilford +59, Iredell +48, Johnston +44, New Hanover +44, Gaston +43.
6/27/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
60,537
NC Deaths
1318 (Date of Death Graph only lists XXXX deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
888 <- 90% reporting (was 892 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
855,131

CONGREGATE and DEATH DATE LOCATION NOT UPDATED ON DHHS YET.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
795 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
142 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+15 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

381 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
937 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

204 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1347* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1719 positive cases over 18406 new tests. 9.3% positive rate.

First time I remember chaining three days of 90% hospital reporting in a row. Somebody must be getting a talking to over reporting.

I feel DHHS has gone into full on 'F*** IT' mode over location of deaths. That is 33 Unknown deaths in the last 5 days.

Deaths added today by date: 5/25(2), 5/29, 6/3, 6/9, 6/11, 6/13, 6/14, 6/18, 6/19, 6/20(2), 6/23(2), 6/25(2), 6/26.

County level data is not downloadable right now, and certainly not going to move that over manually.

6 of the deaths reported today came from Duplin County and they have only had 1 death in the last 2 weeks. So I am going to say most of those old deaths are coming out of their backlog.

wilmwolf80
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I think that anyone who can't admit that the protests have had an impact on the spread of the virus just has their head in the sand. That's not a statement on my personal beliefs about the unrest, just a simple logical observation that everyone should be able to make regardless of affiliation or beliefs. I also don't necessarily think that increased spread amongst that age group is the worst thing, provided they are not putting older or compromised people in their social circle at risk, which admittedly may be a big ask.
Just A Guy
metcalfmafia
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No one at my pool today seems worried about the virus.
Follow me on Twitter: @metcalfmafia
statefan91
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Wouldn't this mean the IFR is significantly lower than what is currently being estimated? This seems like a very good thing.
Wayland
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statefan91 said:



Wouldn't this mean the IFR is significantly lower than what is currently being estimated? This seems like a very good thing.
And that is based on AB testing. Doesn't even cover people who fought with T-cell or undetected AB immunity. The number is likely much much higher. Kind of puts it in perspective when the number of people with COVID has already been in the 10s of millions.

NY at its peak was likely pushing 100,000s of cases a day, but since they were never captured by testing, media doesn't chart them, people can't reason backwards and imagine what the TRUE COVID case graph looks like as opposed to the DECTECTED case graph that is shown.

Wayland
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One of the guys I follow on Twitter was playing with some state graphs the last few days. Here is NC.

Wayland
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Quote:

6/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
45,853
NC Deaths
1154
Currently Hospitalized
829 <- 85% still stable since increased from 73% yesterday reporting
Completed Tests
651,421

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
723 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
97 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+36 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

334 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
820 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+24)

193 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1196* and NandO is at 1169 deaths

751 positive cases over 12,942 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.

6/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
46,855
NC Deaths
1168
Currently Hospitalized
846 <- 86% reporting (was 829 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
667,422

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
729 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

340 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
828 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1208* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1002 positive cases over 16,001 new tests. 6.3% positive rate.

Dates of deaths reported today:
5/22 - 1
5/31 - 1
6/2 - 1
6/13 -2
6/14 - 2
6/15 - 3
6/16 - 4

Don't know who the back log belongs to. I think the majority of the deaths today were reported out of Meck/Guilford. But since they are also the two hardest places, just as likely to be the current reports.
6/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
48,188
NC Deaths
1175
Currently Hospitalized
857 <- 88% reporting (was 846 at 86% yesterday) still roughly stable. higher % report.
Completed Tests
693,678

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
733 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

343 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
832 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+4)

195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1222* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1333 positive cases over 26,256 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

7 deaths reported today occurred between 6/11 and 6/17

54% of the delta in the case ethnicity data (where available) were Hispanic.
6/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
49,840
NC Deaths
1197
Currently Hospitalized
871 <- 91% reporting (was 857 at 88% yesterday) new high, but higher %. Roughly stable
Completed Tests
712,313

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
745 Deaths are now Congregate (+12)
105 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

347 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
850 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+18)

191 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1235* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1652 positive cases over 18,638 new tests. 8.9% positive rate.

These hospitalizations need to go down. The only bright side is that the % of reporting hospitals has increased each day that the overall number has increased. The number is relatively stable but NEEDS to decline.

The case total is lower than last Friday, so not a new high. That is a positive we see a little case stabilization, maybe.

16 of the deaths reported today are from the last week. There was an adjustment and one death was removed from 5/27. One death reported today was as far back as 5/17, one additional on 5/31.

Deaths are still being driven by congregate facilities.

Of the cases with a reported ethnicity, over 50% of new cases are Hispanic.
6/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
51389
NC Deaths
1212
Currently Hospitalized
883 <- 87% reporting (was 871 at 91% yesterday) new high.
Completed Tests
731,341

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
749 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
106 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+15 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

357 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
855 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

192 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1262* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1197 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1549 positive cases over 19028 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Hospitalizations creeping up. Both ICU and overall are higher. Still need to turn that corner. First day in a while not driven by congregate deaths. Most of the ICU increases are coming out of EHPC (Eastern NC) and MHPC (Meck). Most other groups are relatively stable.
6/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
52801
NC Deaths
1220
Currently Hospitalized
845<- 74% reporting (was 883 at 87% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Stable/Small increase
Completed Tests
745,775


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
752 Deaths are now Congregate (+3)
108 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

360 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
860 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

190 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1269* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1197 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1412 positive cases over 14434 new tests. 9.8% positive rate.

3 day case rate reported last 6/12-6/14 = 4638, 6/19-621 = 4613. Cases stable week over week.

60% of new cases with ethnicity reported today are Hispanic. Need to keep focusing resources there to help.
6/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
53605
NC Deaths
1223
Currently Hospitalized
870<- 73% reporting (was 845 at 74% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Higher # admits.
Completed Tests
757.345


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
754 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
109 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

360 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
863 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

191 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1273* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1220 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

804 positive cases over 11570 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

Less than half of tests today had ethnicity data, would be interesting to know sourcing.

All 3 reported deaths were from 6/20-6/21.
6/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
54,453
NC Deaths
1251
Currently Hospitalized
915 new high <- 91% reporting (was 870 at 73% yesterday) Higher reporting %. Higher # admits.
Completed Tests
773,828

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
771 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
114 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

366 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
885 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

196 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1275* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1223 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

848 positive cases over 16,483 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.



Highest hospitalizations, but also one of the highest reporting days in weeks. This continues to creep up slowly and will be the reason for whatever Executive Orders come next, but dangerous to not provide context to this number.

Meck is having a tough time maintaining their peak case counts from last week. Still high but not as high.

Date of Death not updated yet.
I suspect a number of these deaths are lagged data. There has been a large gap in the DHHS data, and I feel like they were waiting for a quiet Tuesday to throw this all in. We will see if I am right. EDIT: WRAL showed a bit of a jump as well, so I expect we might see the lag data from the smaller counties come in over the next day as well.

Peak at the locations of deaths reported today, 5 Cumberland, 4 Robeson, and 3 Chatham. No other county above 2. I believe these are some of the counties I identified a while back as having a large disconnect with DHHS reporting. Most of this is 1 and 2 offs in smaller counties.

EDIT: As I was saying, 8 of the deaths added to the graph today are over 2 weeks old and an additional 3 are between 1 and 2 weeks old.

Deaths included from today are from 5/24, 5/25, 5/26, 6/1, 6/4(2), 6/5, 6/6, 6/11, and 6/13(2). The remaining deaths are from the last 7 days.


6/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
56,174
NC Deaths
1271 (Date of Death Graphy only lists 1266 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
906 <- 88% reporting (was 915 at 91% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Lower # admits.
Completed Tests
791,285

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
781 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
120 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

370 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
901 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

197 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1294* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1251 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1721 positive cases over 17,457 new tests. 9.9% positive rate.

Case data and day of death data have not been updated. Huge case dump to justify(?) whatever Cooper's decision is. Will be interesting to see if the next two days are also huge spikes, the high reporting usually comes later in the week.

Interesting. When I break down their county data, I only get 1461 cases assigned to counties. That leaves 260 cases that are not being assigned a location. I wonder why that is? Something about this feel a little like a data dump again.

Meck+ 247
Wake+ 147
Guilford +65
Forsyth +64
No other county over 40 new cases.

Even worse they have screwed up their Total Deaths by Date of Deaths graph by adding 20 deaths today in the Outbreaks and Clusters tab but only 15 in their Date of Death tab... so there is that. They are also now listing a missing date of death... which is kind of odd they don't know when someone died but they know how.

Even worse than stating that they only added 15 deaths to the chart today, they somehow actually added 22 instead of 20. HOT MESS.

Deaths again high from Cumberland and Guilford and DHHS now reporting higher deaths than the counties themselves report, wish I know why the reporting discrepancies.
6/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
57,183
NC Deaths
1290 (Date of Death Graph only lists 1284 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
891 <- 90% reporting (was 906 at 88% yesterday) Higher reporting %. Lower # admits.
Completed Tests
811,278

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
787 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
130 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+19 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

373 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
917 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

200 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1317* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1009 positive cases over 19,993 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

Hospitalizations down. Cases lowest Thursday in weeks. Check out what I bolded from yesterday's post when I noticed the odd early week case spike.

Deaths were +22 on the Date of Death chart today (regardless of what they say). One death was removed from 5/8.
Deaths added today by date 5/15, 5/23, 5/27, 5/28, 6/3, 6/8, 6/13, 6/15(2), 6/16(2), 6/17, 6/19, 6/20, 6/22, 6/23(5), and 6/24(3).

So significant lagged data in the report today. It looks like they slide 6 of the old Robeson deaths and 4 old Meck deaths into today's data. Been waiting a long time for that Robeson reconciliation.

And notice yesterday when I remarked there were about an extra 260 cases that were missing a county from yesterday. Well guess what there are about about an extra 260 cases that are assigned a county over what was reported as a total. In the county level data 1254 cases were added even though the overall count was 1009. Yesterday they reported 1461 county cases but 1721 overall cases.

Data was juiced.
6/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
58,818
NC Deaths
1303 (Date of Death Graph only lists 1297 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
892 <- 90% reporting (was 891 at 90% yesterday) Same reporting %. One addl # admits.
Completed Tests
836,725

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
793 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
132 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+19 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

378 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
925 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

203 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1338* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1635 positive cases over 25447 new tests. 6.4% positive rate.

Date of death chart makes no sense today. 5 deaths were taken off of 6/15-6/16. One death was added as far back as 5/15. And 2 additional no dates of death were added. I just can't make any sense of the changes.

Nothing that unusual the county data. Deaths seem spread around (Columbus and Forsyth with 2)

Meck a +330 in cases, Wake +159. Durham +77, Forsyth +73, Guilford +59, Iredell +48, Johnston +44, New Hanover +44, Gaston +43.
6/27/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
60,537
NC Deaths
1318 (Date of Death Graph only lists XXXX deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
888 <- 90% reporting (was 892 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
855,131

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
795 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
142 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+15 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

381 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
937 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

204 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1347* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1719 positive cases over 18406 new tests. 9.3% positive rate.

First time I remember chaining three days of 90% hospital reporting in a row. Somebody must be getting a talking to over reporting.

I feel DHHS has gone into full on 'F*** IT' mode over location of deaths. That is 33 Unknown deaths in the last 5 days.

Deaths added today by date: 5/25(2), 5/29, 6/3, 6/9, 6/11, 6/13, 6/14, 6/18, 6/19, 6/20(2), 6/23(2), 6/25(2), 6/26.

County level data is not downloadable right now, and certainly not going to move that over manually.

6 of the deaths reported today came from Duplin County and they have only had 1 death in the last 2 weeks. So I am going to say most of those old deaths are coming out of their backlog.


6/28/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
62,142
NC Deaths
1322
Currently Hospitalized
890 <- 78% reporting (was 888 at 90% yesterday) Big drop in report %. Small increase in Hosp.
Completed Tests
871,905

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
795 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
144 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

383 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
939 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

204 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1353* deaths

1605 positive cases over 16774 new tests. 9.6% positive rate.

Boring day other than cases staying about the same/high. And hospitalizations staying about the same despite a drop in reporting. (Maybe some of that is small hospitals with low case loads not reporting? Maybe some actual increase?)
Daviewolf83
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Wayland said:

One of the guys I follow on Twitter was playing with some state graphs the last few days. Here is NC.


Related to this, it appears the number of people infected is increasing. As many know, Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center is testing for COVID-19 antibodies in a study funded by the Republicans in the legislature. They have just published their most recent results, showing the positive test rates among North Carolinians has increased from 3% as of June 8, to between 8% and 10% as of June 22. A pretty dramatic incease.

This means the IFR continues to fall significantly and the number of people infected is likely much higher than what is being captured in the official case numbers from NCDHHS.
Wayland
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Daviewolf83 said:

Wayland said:

One of the guys I follow on Twitter was playing with some state graphs the last few days. Here is NC.


Related to this, it appears the number of people infected is increasing. As many know, Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center is testing for COVID-19 antibodies in a study funded by the Republicans in the legislature. They have just published their most recent results, showing the positive test rates among North Carolinians has increased from 3% as of June 8, to between 8% and 10% as of June 22. A pretty dramatic incease.

This means the IFR continues to fall significantly and the number of people infected is likely much higher than what is being captured in the official case numbers from NCDHHS.
What I found interesting about their study is that they were detecting a lot more cases with IgM testing than IgG. i thought it would be the opposite, unless there is really flaws in the IgG.

Most bloodtests for AB through Labcorp or Quest are IgG.

IgM is supposed to decline a lot quicker. Is it easier to pick up on tests? Are IgG tests calibrated well enough?


Been trying to find an answer to that because when I looked at the graph I was shocked.
Wayland
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And if you have time and an advanced degree, Michael Levitt (Stanford Nobel Laureate) finally put out his paper in preprint.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.26.20140814v1.full.pdf

Quote:

DISCUSSION Non-Exponential Growth It is evident from our data analysis that the growth of a COVID19 epidemic does not follow an exponential growth law even in the very first days, but instead its growth is slowing down exponentially with time. While all growth functions decelerate exponentially when approaching the plateau, the Gompertz function is unique in that it is decelerating from the first day, and thus can fit the first part of the COVID-19 outbreak. Moreover, its relatively simple functional form, allowed us to produce an efficient computer code to fit data in all different locations in a consistent way.
Packchem91
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This article in WSJ should be repeated, and then repeated, and then repeated for all the numbnuts who won't wear a mask in public.
HK is one of the most densely populated cities in the world and has such a small number of cases. Has to be the masks. And yet, we have people still crying about not going to bars.

https://t.co/y6vWnELNNV
Wayland
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Quote:

6/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
45,853
NC Deaths
1154
Currently Hospitalized
829 <- 85% still stable since increased from 73% yesterday reporting
Completed Tests
651,421

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
723 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
97 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+36 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

334 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
820 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+24)

193 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1196* and NandO is at 1169 deaths

751 positive cases over 12,942 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.

6/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
46,855
NC Deaths
1168
Currently Hospitalized
846 <- 86% reporting (was 829 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
667,422

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
729 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

340 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
828 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1208* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1002 positive cases over 16,001 new tests. 6.3% positive rate.

Dates of deaths reported today:
5/22 - 1
5/31 - 1
6/2 - 1
6/13 -2
6/14 - 2
6/15 - 3
6/16 - 4

Don't know who the back log belongs to. I think the majority of the deaths today were reported out of Meck/Guilford. But since they are also the two hardest places, just as likely to be the current reports.
6/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
48,188
NC Deaths
1175
Currently Hospitalized
857 <- 88% reporting (was 846 at 86% yesterday) still roughly stable. higher % report.
Completed Tests
693,678

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
733 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

343 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
832 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+4)

195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1222* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1333 positive cases over 26,256 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

7 deaths reported today occurred between 6/11 and 6/17

54% of the delta in the case ethnicity data (where available) were Hispanic.
6/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
49,840
NC Deaths
1197
Currently Hospitalized
871 <- 91% reporting (was 857 at 88% yesterday) new high, but higher %. Roughly stable
Completed Tests
712,313

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
745 Deaths are now Congregate (+12)
105 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

347 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
850 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+18)

191 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1235* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1652 positive cases over 18,638 new tests. 8.9% positive rate.

These hospitalizations need to go down. The only bright side is that the % of reporting hospitals has increased each day that the overall number has increased. The number is relatively stable but NEEDS to decline.

The case total is lower than last Friday, so not a new high. That is a positive we see a little case stabilization, maybe.

16 of the deaths reported today are from the last week. There was an adjustment and one death was removed from 5/27. One death reported today was as far back as 5/17, one additional on 5/31.

Deaths are still being driven by congregate facilities.

Of the cases with a reported ethnicity, over 50% of new cases are Hispanic.
6/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
51389
NC Deaths
1212
Currently Hospitalized
883 <- 87% reporting (was 871 at 91% yesterday) new high.
Completed Tests
731,341

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
749 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
106 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+15 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

357 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
855 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

192 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1262* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1197 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1549 positive cases over 19028 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Hospitalizations creeping up. Both ICU and overall are higher. Still need to turn that corner. First day in a while not driven by congregate deaths. Most of the ICU increases are coming out of EHPC (Eastern NC) and MHPC (Meck). Most other groups are relatively stable.
6/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
52801
NC Deaths
1220
Currently Hospitalized
845<- 74% reporting (was 883 at 87% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Stable/Small increase
Completed Tests
745,775


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
752 Deaths are now Congregate (+3)
108 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

360 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
860 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

190 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1269* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1197 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1412 positive cases over 14434 new tests. 9.8% positive rate.

3 day case rate reported last 6/12-6/14 = 4638, 6/19-621 = 4613. Cases stable week over week.

60% of new cases with ethnicity reported today are Hispanic. Need to keep focusing resources there to help.
6/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
53605
NC Deaths
1223
Currently Hospitalized
870<- 73% reporting (was 845 at 74% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Higher # admits.
Completed Tests
757.345


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
754 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
109 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

360 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
863 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

191 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1273* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1220 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

804 positive cases over 11570 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

Less than half of tests today had ethnicity data, would be interesting to know sourcing.

All 3 reported deaths were from 6/20-6/21.
6/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
54,453
NC Deaths
1251
Currently Hospitalized
915 new high <- 91% reporting (was 870 at 73% yesterday) Higher reporting %. Higher # admits.
Completed Tests
773,828

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
771 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
114 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

366 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
885 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

196 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1275* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1223 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

848 positive cases over 16,483 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.



Highest hospitalizations, but also one of the highest reporting days in weeks. This continues to creep up slowly and will be the reason for whatever Executive Orders come next, but dangerous to not provide context to this number.

Meck is having a tough time maintaining their peak case counts from last week. Still high but not as high.

Date of Death not updated yet.
I suspect a number of these deaths are lagged data. There has been a large gap in the DHHS data, and I feel like they were waiting for a quiet Tuesday to throw this all in. We will see if I am right. EDIT: WRAL showed a bit of a jump as well, so I expect we might see the lag data from the smaller counties come in over the next day as well.

Peak at the locations of deaths reported today, 5 Cumberland, 4 Robeson, and 3 Chatham. No other county above 2. I believe these are some of the counties I identified a while back as having a large disconnect with DHHS reporting. Most of this is 1 and 2 offs in smaller counties.

EDIT: As I was saying, 8 of the deaths added to the graph today are over 2 weeks old and an additional 3 are between 1 and 2 weeks old.

Deaths included from today are from 5/24, 5/25, 5/26, 6/1, 6/4(2), 6/5, 6/6, 6/11, and 6/13(2). The remaining deaths are from the last 7 days.


6/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
56,174
NC Deaths
1271 (Date of Death Graphy only lists 1266 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
906 <- 88% reporting (was 915 at 91% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Lower # admits.
Completed Tests
791,285

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
781 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
120 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

370 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
901 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

197 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1294* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1251 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1721 positive cases over 17,457 new tests. 9.9% positive rate.

Case data and day of death data have not been updated. Huge case dump to justify(?) whatever Cooper's decision is. Will be interesting to see if the next two days are also huge spikes, the high reporting usually comes later in the week.

Interesting. When I break down their county data, I only get 1461 cases assigned to counties. That leaves 260 cases that are not being assigned a location. I wonder why that is? Something about this feel a little like a data dump again.

Meck+ 247
Wake+ 147
Guilford +65
Forsyth +64
No other county over 40 new cases.

Even worse they have screwed up their Total Deaths by Date of Deaths graph by adding 20 deaths today in the Outbreaks and Clusters tab but only 15 in their Date of Death tab... so there is that. They are also now listing a missing date of death... which is kind of odd they don't know when someone died but they know how.

Even worse than stating that they only added 15 deaths to the chart today, they somehow actually added 22 instead of 20. HOT MESS.

Deaths again high from Cumberland and Guilford and DHHS now reporting higher deaths than the counties themselves report, wish I know why the reporting discrepancies.
6/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
57,183
NC Deaths
1290 (Date of Death Graph only lists 1284 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
891 <- 90% reporting (was 906 at 88% yesterday) Higher reporting %. Lower # admits.
Completed Tests
811,278

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
787 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
130 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+19 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

373 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
917 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

200 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1317* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1009 positive cases over 19,993 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

Hospitalizations down. Cases lowest Thursday in weeks. Check out what I bolded from yesterday's post when I noticed the odd early week case spike.

Deaths were +22 on the Date of Death chart today (regardless of what they say). One death was removed from 5/8.
Deaths added today by date 5/15, 5/23, 5/27, 5/28, 6/3, 6/8, 6/13, 6/15(2), 6/16(2), 6/17, 6/19, 6/20, 6/22, 6/23(5), and 6/24(3).

So significant lagged data in the report today. It looks like they slide 6 of the old Robeson deaths and 4 old Meck deaths into today's data. Been waiting a long time for that Robeson reconciliation.

And notice yesterday when I remarked there were about an extra 260 cases that were missing a county from yesterday. Well guess what there are about about an extra 260 cases that are assigned a county over what was reported as a total. In the county level data 1254 cases were added even though the overall count was 1009. Yesterday they reported 1461 county cases but 1721 overall cases.

Data was juiced.
6/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
58,818
NC Deaths
1303 (Date of Death Graph only lists 1297 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
892 <- 90% reporting (was 891 at 90% yesterday) Same reporting %. One addl # admits.
Completed Tests
836,725

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
793 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
132 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+19 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

378 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
925 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

203 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1338* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1635 positive cases over 25447 new tests. 6.4% positive rate.

Date of death chart makes no sense today. 5 deaths were taken off of 6/15-6/16. One death was added as far back as 5/15. And 2 additional no dates of death were added. I just can't make any sense of the changes.

Nothing that unusual the county data. Deaths seem spread around (Columbus and Forsyth with 2)

Meck a +330 in cases, Wake +159. Durham +77, Forsyth +73, Guilford +59, Iredell +48, Johnston +44, New Hanover +44, Gaston +43.
6/27/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
60,537
NC Deaths
1318 (Date of Death Graph only lists XXXX deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
888 <- 90% reporting (was 892 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
855,131

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
795 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
142 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+15 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

381 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
937 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

204 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1347* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1719 positive cases over 18406 new tests. 9.3% positive rate.

First time I remember chaining three days of 90% hospital reporting in a row. Somebody must be getting a talking to over reporting.

I feel DHHS has gone into full on 'F*** IT' mode over location of deaths. That is 33 Unknown deaths in the last 5 days.

Deaths added today by date: 5/25(2), 5/29, 6/3, 6/9, 6/11, 6/13, 6/14, 6/18, 6/19, 6/20(2), 6/23(2), 6/25(2), 6/26.

County level data is not downloadable right now, and certainly not going to move that over manually.

6 of the deaths reported today came from Duplin County and they have only had 1 death in the last 2 weeks. So I am going to say most of those old deaths are coming out of their backlog.


6/28/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
62,142
NC Deaths
1322
Currently Hospitalized
890 <- 78% reporting (was 888 at 90% yesterday) Big drop in report %. Small increase in Hosp.
Completed Tests
871,905

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
795 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
144 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

383 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
939 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

204 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1353* deaths

1605 positive cases over 16774 new tests. 9.6% positive rate.

Boring day other than cases staying about the same/high. And hospitalizations staying about the same despite a drop in reporting. (Maybe some of that is small hospitals with low case loads not reporting? Maybe some actual increase?)
6/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1325
Currently Hospitalized
843 <- 75% reporting (was 890 at 78% yesterday) Lower report % Lower Hosp #
Completed Tests
886,305

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
796 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
145 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

384 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
941 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

210 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1360* deaths

1342 positive cases over 14400 new tests. 9.3% positive rate.

I remain convinced that hospitalizations have been stable for weeks and the change is all in whatever hospitals choose to report plus any additional non-critical cases being caught with pre-procedural testing.

Concerning that congregate facilities keep going up. Hope here is that they are catching staff cases early.

So since hospitalizations down (yes, it is likely reporting) and deaths low. Expect to see CASES CASES HIGHEST MONDAY EVER!!!! out of media.

Deaths added today. 6/27(2), 6/25(2), 6/12(1).


EDIT: See bolded media panic statement. I am good.
RunsWithWolves26
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Packchem91 said:

This article in WSJ should be repeated, and then repeated, and then repeated for all the numbnuts who won't wear a mask in public.
HK is one of the most densely populated cities in the world and has such a small number of cases. Has to be the masks. And yet, we have people still crying about not going to bars.

https://t.co/y6vWnELNNV



My mom has severe closterphobia. Should I let her know she's a, as you call people who don't wear masks, "numbnut?" I will hang up and wait for an answer.
packgrad
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Packchem91 said:

This article in WSJ should be repeated, and then repeated, and then repeated for all the numbnuts who won't wear a mask in public.
HK is one of the most densely populated cities in the world and has such a small number of cases. Has to be the masks. And yet, we have people still crying about not going to bars.

https://t.co/y6vWnELNNV



Did Hong Kong close down bars indefinitely? Next, people are going to "cry about" your false equivalencies.
Packchem91
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packgrad said:

Packchem91 said:

This article in WSJ should be repeated, and then repeated, and then repeated for all the numbnuts who won't wear a mask in public.
HK is one of the most densely populated cities in the world and has such a small number of cases. Has to be the masks. And yet, we have people still crying about not going to bars.

https://t.co/y6vWnELNNV



Did Hong Kong close down bars indefinitely? Next, people are going to "cry about" your false equivalencies.
Don't know....but if we would wear masks and lower all the metrics, we'd be going back to bars soon enough. If we had worn masks a month ago, and prevented the spread, you could be back in a bar right now.

Did you ever put a call in to your folks in TX & FL to ask why their governor is being so political to close the bars there?
Packchem91
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

Packchem91 said:

This article in WSJ should be repeated, and then repeated, and then repeated for all the numbnuts who won't wear a mask in public.
HK is one of the most densely populated cities in the world and has such a small number of cases. Has to be the masks. And yet, we have people still crying about not going to bars.

https://t.co/y6vWnELNNV



My mom has severe closterphobia. Should I let her know she's a, as you call people who don't wear masks, "numbnut?" I will hang up and wait for an answer.
Come on man, you know there are exceptions to every rule, and that is one. So lets modify....if the numbnuts who don't have a qualified reason to avoid a mask...you know, the people who think the govt shouldn't tell them what to do, the people who think they can't possibly catch it, the people who hate the media (or the governor) so aren't going to listen to anything they say.
Those are the numbnuts.

Does that answer your concern?
Civilized
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

Packchem91 said:

This article in WSJ should be repeated, and then repeated, and then repeated for all the numbnuts who won't wear a mask in public.
HK is one of the most densely populated cities in the world and has such a small number of cases. Has to be the masks. And yet, we have people still crying about not going to bars.

https://t.co/y6vWnELNNV



My mom has severe closterphobia. Should I let her know she's a, as you call people who don't wear masks, "numbnut?" I will hang up and wait for an answer.

Your mom is in the very, very small percentage of people that have a legit reason to not wear a mask.

Of course, if she's anything like my Mom's age/health (older, and OK health, but not great) she probably shouldn't be hanging out much in public without one anyway, for her own good if nothing else.

The numbnuts are the kids out at bars without masks or the people not wearing masks to make a statement (political or otherwise).

Since the mask mandate by the State, I've noticed a real uptick in mask wearing. Now easily 90%+ in most every public place I go (mainly Lowes and grocery).

I'm totally and completely for wearing masks in public but even still I chuckle at the folks wearing masks in the car, with the windows up, with no one else in the car. Now THAT makes me claustrophobic.
packgrad
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Packchem91 said:

packgrad said:

Packchem91 said:

This article in WSJ should be repeated, and then repeated, and then repeated for all the numbnuts who won't wear a mask in public.
HK is one of the most densely populated cities in the world and has such a small number of cases. Has to be the masks. And yet, we have people still crying about not going to bars.

https://t.co/y6vWnELNNV



Did Hong Kong close down bars indefinitely? Next, people are going to "cry about" your false equivalencies.
Don't know....but if we would wear masks and lower all the metrics, we'd be going back to bars soon enough. If we had worn masks a month ago, and prevented the spread, you could be back in a bar right now.

Did you ever put a call in to your folks in TX & FL to ask why their governor is being so political to close the bars there?


Why would I do that? I've been clear that I don't think bars should be closed. I'm guessing you still dont under the usage of "political".
RunsWithWolves26
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Packchem91 said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Packchem91 said:

This article in WSJ should be repeated, and then repeated, and then repeated for all the numbnuts who won't wear a mask in public.
HK is one of the most densely populated cities in the world and has such a small number of cases. Has to be the masks. And yet, we have people still crying about not going to bars.

https://t.co/y6vWnELNNV



My mom has severe closterphobia. Should I let her know she's a, as you call people who don't wear masks, "numbnut?" I will hang up and wait for an answer.
Come on man, you know there are exceptions to every rule, and that is one. So lets modify....if the numbnuts who don't have a qualified reason to avoid a mask...you know, the people who think the govt shouldn't tell them what to do, the people who think they can't possibly catch it, the people who hate the media (or the governor) so aren't going to listen to anything they say.
Those are the numbnuts.

Does that answer your concern?


Wasn't a concern, just a simple question. You decided like a poster did before, to lump anyone who does not wear a mask, some type of name or terrible person. Personally, if you want to wear a mask, wear a mask. If you don't want to, then don't wear one.
Daviewolf83
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Quote:

6/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
45,853
NC Deaths
1154
Currently Hospitalized
829 <- 85% still stable since increased from 73% yesterday reporting
Completed Tests
651,421

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
723 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
97 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+36 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

334 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
820 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+24)

193 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1196* and NandO is at 1169 deaths

751 positive cases over 12,942 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.

6/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
46,855
NC Deaths
1168
Currently Hospitalized
846 <- 86% reporting (was 829 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
667,422

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
729 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

340 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
828 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1208* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1002 positive cases over 16,001 new tests. 6.3% positive rate.

Dates of deaths reported today:
5/22 - 1
5/31 - 1
6/2 - 1
6/13 -2
6/14 - 2
6/15 - 3
6/16 - 4

Don't know who the back log belongs to. I think the majority of the deaths today were reported out of Meck/Guilford. But since they are also the two hardest places, just as likely to be the current reports.
6/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
48,188
NC Deaths
1175
Currently Hospitalized
857 <- 88% reporting (was 846 at 86% yesterday) still roughly stable. higher % report.
Completed Tests
693,678

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
733 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

343 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
832 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+4)

195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1222* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1333 positive cases over 26,256 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

7 deaths reported today occurred between 6/11 and 6/17

54% of the delta in the case ethnicity data (where available) were Hispanic.
6/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
49,840
NC Deaths
1197
Currently Hospitalized
871 <- 91% reporting (was 857 at 88% yesterday) new high, but higher %. Roughly stable
Completed Tests
712,313

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
745 Deaths are now Congregate (+12)
105 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

347 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
850 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+18)

191 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1235* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1652 positive cases over 18,638 new tests. 8.9% positive rate.

These hospitalizations need to go down. The only bright side is that the % of reporting hospitals has increased each day that the overall number has increased. The number is relatively stable but NEEDS to decline.

The case total is lower than last Friday, so not a new high. That is a positive we see a little case stabilization, maybe.

16 of the deaths reported today are from the last week. There was an adjustment and one death was removed from 5/27. One death reported today was as far back as 5/17, one additional on 5/31.

Deaths are still being driven by congregate facilities.

Of the cases with a reported ethnicity, over 50% of new cases are Hispanic.
6/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
51389
NC Deaths
1212
Currently Hospitalized
883 <- 87% reporting (was 871 at 91% yesterday) new high.
Completed Tests
731,341

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
749 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
106 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+15 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

357 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
855 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

192 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1262* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1197 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1549 positive cases over 19028 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Hospitalizations creeping up. Both ICU and overall are higher. Still need to turn that corner. First day in a while not driven by congregate deaths. Most of the ICU increases are coming out of EHPC (Eastern NC) and MHPC (Meck). Most other groups are relatively stable.
6/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
52801
NC Deaths
1220
Currently Hospitalized
845<- 74% reporting (was 883 at 87% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Stable/Small increase
Completed Tests
745,775


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
752 Deaths are now Congregate (+3)
108 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

360 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
860 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

190 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1269* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1197 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1412 positive cases over 14434 new tests. 9.8% positive rate.

3 day case rate reported last 6/12-6/14 = 4638, 6/19-621 = 4613. Cases stable week over week.

60% of new cases with ethnicity reported today are Hispanic. Need to keep focusing resources there to help.
6/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
53605
NC Deaths
1223
Currently Hospitalized
870<- 73% reporting (was 845 at 74% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Higher # admits.
Completed Tests
757.345


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
754 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
109 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

360 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
863 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

191 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1273* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1220 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

804 positive cases over 11570 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

Less than half of tests today had ethnicity data, would be interesting to know sourcing.

All 3 reported deaths were from 6/20-6/21.
6/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
54,453
NC Deaths
1251
Currently Hospitalized
915 new high <- 91% reporting (was 870 at 73% yesterday) Higher reporting %. Higher # admits.
Completed Tests
773,828

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
771 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
114 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

366 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
885 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

196 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1275* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1223 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

848 positive cases over 16,483 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.



Highest hospitalizations, but also one of the highest reporting days in weeks. This continues to creep up slowly and will be the reason for whatever Executive Orders come next, but dangerous to not provide context to this number.

Meck is having a tough time maintaining their peak case counts from last week. Still high but not as high.

Date of Death not updated yet.
I suspect a number of these deaths are lagged data. There has been a large gap in the DHHS data, and I feel like they were waiting for a quiet Tuesday to throw this all in. We will see if I am right. EDIT: WRAL showed a bit of a jump as well, so I expect we might see the lag data from the smaller counties come in over the next day as well.

Peak at the locations of deaths reported today, 5 Cumberland, 4 Robeson, and 3 Chatham. No other county above 2. I believe these are some of the counties I identified a while back as having a large disconnect with DHHS reporting. Most of this is 1 and 2 offs in smaller counties.

EDIT: As I was saying, 8 of the deaths added to the graph today are over 2 weeks old and an additional 3 are between 1 and 2 weeks old.

Deaths included from today are from 5/24, 5/25, 5/26, 6/1, 6/4(2), 6/5, 6/6, 6/11, and 6/13(2). The remaining deaths are from the last 7 days.


6/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
56,174
NC Deaths
1271 (Date of Death Graphy only lists 1266 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
906 <- 88% reporting (was 915 at 91% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Lower # admits.
Completed Tests
791,285

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
781 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
120 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

370 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
901 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

197 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1294* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1251 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1721 positive cases over 17,457 new tests. 9.9% positive rate.

Case data and day of death data have not been updated. Huge case dump to justify(?) whatever Cooper's decision is. Will be interesting to see if the next two days are also huge spikes, the high reporting usually comes later in the week.

Interesting. When I break down their county data, I only get 1461 cases assigned to counties. That leaves 260 cases that are not being assigned a location. I wonder why that is? Something about this feel a little like a data dump again.

Meck+ 247
Wake+ 147
Guilford +65
Forsyth +64
No other county over 40 new cases.

Even worse they have screwed up their Total Deaths by Date of Deaths graph by adding 20 deaths today in the Outbreaks and Clusters tab but only 15 in their Date of Death tab... so there is that. They are also now listing a missing date of death... which is kind of odd they don't know when someone died but they know how.

Even worse than stating that they only added 15 deaths to the chart today, they somehow actually added 22 instead of 20. HOT MESS.

Deaths again high from Cumberland and Guilford and DHHS now reporting higher deaths than the counties themselves report, wish I know why the reporting discrepancies.
6/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
57,183
NC Deaths
1290 (Date of Death Graph only lists 1284 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
891 <- 90% reporting (was 906 at 88% yesterday) Higher reporting %. Lower # admits.
Completed Tests
811,278

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
787 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
130 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+19 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

373 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
917 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

200 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1317* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1009 positive cases over 19,993 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

Hospitalizations down. Cases lowest Thursday in weeks. Check out what I bolded from yesterday's post when I noticed the odd early week case spike.

Deaths were +22 on the Date of Death chart today (regardless of what they say). One death was removed from 5/8.
Deaths added today by date 5/15, 5/23, 5/27, 5/28, 6/3, 6/8, 6/13, 6/15(2), 6/16(2), 6/17, 6/19, 6/20, 6/22, 6/23(5), and 6/24(3).

So significant lagged data in the report today. It looks like they slide 6 of the old Robeson deaths and 4 old Meck deaths into today's data. Been waiting a long time for that Robeson reconciliation.

And notice yesterday when I remarked there were about an extra 260 cases that were missing a county from yesterday. Well guess what there are about about an extra 260 cases that are assigned a county over what was reported as a total. In the county level data 1254 cases were added even though the overall count was 1009. Yesterday they reported 1461 county cases but 1721 overall cases.

Data was juiced.
6/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
58,818
NC Deaths
1303 (Date of Death Graph only lists 1297 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
892 <- 90% reporting (was 891 at 90% yesterday) Same reporting %. One addl # admits.
Completed Tests
836,725

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
793 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
132 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+19 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

378 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
925 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

203 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1338* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1635 positive cases over 25447 new tests. 6.4% positive rate.

Date of death chart makes no sense today. 5 deaths were taken off of 6/15-6/16. One death was added as far back as 5/15. And 2 additional no dates of death were added. I just can't make any sense of the changes.

Nothing that unusual the county data. Deaths seem spread around (Columbus and Forsyth with 2)

Meck a +330 in cases, Wake +159. Durham +77, Forsyth +73, Guilford +59, Iredell +48, Johnston +44, New Hanover +44, Gaston +43.
6/27/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
60,537
NC Deaths
1318 (Date of Death Graph only lists XXXX deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
888 <- 90% reporting (was 892 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
855,131

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
795 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
142 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+15 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

381 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
937 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

204 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1347* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1719 positive cases over 18406 new tests. 9.3% positive rate.

First time I remember chaining three days of 90% hospital reporting in a row. Somebody must be getting a talking to over reporting.

I feel DHHS has gone into full on 'F*** IT' mode over location of deaths. That is 33 Unknown deaths in the last 5 days.

Deaths added today by date: 5/25(2), 5/29, 6/3, 6/9, 6/11, 6/13, 6/14, 6/18, 6/19, 6/20(2), 6/23(2), 6/25(2), 6/26.

County level data is not downloadable right now, and certainly not going to move that over manually.

6 of the deaths reported today came from Duplin County and they have only had 1 death in the last 2 weeks. So I am going to say most of those old deaths are coming out of their backlog.


6/28/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
62,142
NC Deaths
1322
Currently Hospitalized
890 <- 78% reporting (was 888 at 90% yesterday) Big drop in report %. Small increase in Hosp.
Completed Tests
871,905

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
795 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
144 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

383 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
939 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

204 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1353* deaths

1605 positive cases over 16774 new tests. 9.6% positive rate.

Boring day other than cases staying about the same/high. And hospitalizations staying about the same despite a drop in reporting. (Maybe some of that is small hospitals with low case loads not reporting? Maybe some actual increase?)
6/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1325
Currently Hospitalized
843 <- 75% reporting (was 890 at 78% yesterday) Lower report % Lower Hosp #
Completed Tests
886,305

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
796 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
145 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

384 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
941 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

210 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1360* deaths

1342 positive cases over 14400 new tests. 9.3% positive rate.

I remain convinced that hospitalizations have been stable for weeks and the change is all in whatever hospitals choose to report plus any additional non-critical cases being caught with pre-procedural testing.

Concerning that congregate facilities keep going up. Hope here is that they are catching staff cases early.

So since hospitalizations down (yes, it is likely reporting) and deaths low. Expect to see CASES CASES HIGHEST MONDAY EVER!!!! out of media.

Deaths added today. 6/27(2), 6/25(2), 6/12(1).


EDIT: See bolded media panic statement. I am good.

Here's the distribution of the cases reported today, by the date the specimen was taken. This is all based on the NCDHHS reporting. It appears over half of the cases (826 out of 1,342 cases) are from specimens sampled last Wednesday or earlier.


Wayland
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Hard to figure out the data when it is so laggy sometimes. Got to love that 5 week old positive COVID testing coming back now. It sure does add a lot of value!!
Daviewolf83
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Here's the tweet I just posted on WRAL's panic tweet about the significance of today being Monday.

ncsualum05
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Wayland said:

Hard to figure out the data when it is so laggy sometimes. Got to love that 5 week old positive COVID testing coming back now. It sure does add a lot of value!!
LOL. So they are adding cases to the number when the patient themselves might have already recovered.
Packchem91
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Civilized said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Packchem91 said:

This article in WSJ should be repeated, and then repeated, and then repeated for all the numbnuts who won't wear a mask in public.
HK is one of the most densely populated cities in the world and has such a small number of cases. Has to be the masks. And yet, we have people still crying about not going to bars.

https://t.co/y6vWnELNNV



My mom has severe closterphobia. Should I let her know she's a, as you call people who don't wear masks, "numbnut?" I will hang up and wait for an answer.

Your mom is in the very, very small percentage of people that have a legit reason to not wear a mask.

Of course, if she's anything like my Mom's age/health (older, and OK health, but not great) she probably shouldn't be hanging out much in public without one anyway, for her own good if nothing else.

The numbnuts are the kids out at bars without masks or the people not wearing masks to make a statement (political or otherwise).

Since the mask mandate by the State, I've noticed a real uptick in mask wearing. Now easily 90%+ in most every public place I go (mainly Lowes and grocery).

I'm totally and completely for wearing masks in public but even still I chuckle at the folks wearing masks in the car, with the windows up, with no one else in the car. Now THAT makes me claustrophobic.
Saw the same Friday -- I was at Bass Pro Shop at Concord Mills on Friday mid-afternoon, and it was maybe 50% masked. All demographics represented in both masked and non-masked.

That evening, after the requirement went into effect, went to a local Target, and saw one adult w/o a mask. That was progress, if even a very small sample size.

Still makes the obvious question...why not just make them required a month ago when we went to Ph2. If we had, bet we'd be going to Ph3 now....impossible to know, of course.
Wayland
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ncsualum05 said:

Wayland said:

Hard to figure out the data when it is so laggy sometimes. Got to love that 5 week old positive COVID testing coming back now. It sure does add a lot of value!!
LOL. So they are adding cases to the number when the patient themselves might have already recovered.
Not to be morbid. Just making sense of data now that I look at it. There is a distinct chance that those cases from like 5 weeks ago could be late death adds. There were some late May one-off deaths added recently, maybe that is adding in the positive case and death at the same time? Just trying to think through it because otherwise you would be absolutely right in it being a post-recovery case addition.
Everpack
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No one has bothered to answer the question of how long we wear masks? What is our finish line?
RunsWithWolves26
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Everpack said:

No one has bothered to answer the question of how long we wear masks? What is our finish line?


November. There's something big happening then and depending on the outcome of that, it will dictate if this virus is terrible or not so bad.
Civilized
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Everpack said:

No one has bothered to answer the question of how long we wear masks? What is our finish line?

I bothered to, you just didn't like the answer.

The answer is, until there's a vaccine or until there's a clinically significant downturn in cases in the US.

I'll leave it up to epidemiologists to develop some consensus around what's clinically significant. My guess is, it's to a level that syncs up with our ability at that time to test, contact-trace, and isolate to keep driving the numbers down.

That needs to be scientific consensus though, not as determined by partisan politics.



RunsWithWolves26
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Civilized said:

Everpack said:

No one has bothered to answer the question of how long we wear masks? What is our finish line?

I bothered to, you just didn't like the answer.

The answer is, until there's a vaccine or until there's a clinically significant downturn in cases in the US.

I'll leave it up to epidemiologists to develop some consensus around what's clinically significant. My guess is, it's to a level that syncs up with our ability at that time to test, contact-trace, and isolate to keep driving the numbers down.

That needs to be scientific consensus though, not as determined by partisan politics.






Not directed at you but I keep seeing people over and over say we must see a down turn in cases. The numbers that are being put out daily are terribly inaccurate to begin with. Hell, we may actually be having a downtick in cases but the numbers they show are so off and so out of date and out of line, that they can't be trusted at all.
 
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