https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/unc-doctor-i-ve-never-been-as-concerned-as-i-am-right-now-about-growth-of-covid-19-cases/19162301/

wilmwolf80 said:

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That's a frustrating mush of an article, weaving the doctors concerns in with the CDC data saying the rate of infection is likely much higher than reported. Nobody bothering to connect the dots that if the rate of infection is ten times higher than reported, and we are at the current hospitalization levels, that actually means the risk of overwhelming the hospital system is lower.

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Indeed!

wilmwolf80 said:

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That's a frustrating mush of an article, weaving the doctors concerns in with the CDC data saying the rate of infection is likely much higher than reported. Nobody bothering to connect the dots that if the rate of infection is ten times higher than reported, and we are at the current hospitalization levels, that actually means the risk of overwhelming the hospital system is lower.

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More WRAL trying to make panic porn. I mean I thought we have basically known for months (well anyone that was actually paying attention to the 'science') that the true number of cases out there was like a 10x on reported. I didn't take the CDC coming out and saying that as a 'dire warning', it is just the opposite. This is a lot LESS deadly than was being reported.

On top of that, the CDC is only estimating that number based on antibody serology studies. When there could be (as articles have suggested) even more resolved cases that are out there that aren't being identified in AB testing because of lowered IgG over time or were protected with other immune system defenses such as T-cells.

There is so a different angle to look at all this information in the wake of the pandemic, that there might actually be a light to the end of the tunnel and that we are actually a lot further along in getting past this.

redsteel33 said:

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Man, it would be great to have this breakdown nationally

I think you'd see it following the same trend lines.

In NC for example - https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/cases

25-49 age group is 49% of the cases, however it's only 5% of the deaths
65+ is only 14% of the cases, however it's 80% of the deaths

wilmwolf80 said:

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That's a frustrating mush of an article, weaving the doctors concerns in with the CDC data saying the rate of infection is likely much higher than reported. Nobody bothering to connect the dots that if the rate of infection is ten times higher than reported, and we are at the current hospitalization levels, that actually means the risk of overwhelming the hospital system is lower.

---

Was watching CBS Evening news last night, and the host acted with dread as she voiced the "BREAKING NEWS" as the # 23M cases of Corona in US banner popped up (I guess they just did a 10x of the current reported cases),
But said host never mentioned once how this might be good news in regards to the death rate and hospitalization rate.

Of course, when they spent 5 minutes on the impacts in Houston and never once called out the G Floyd protests / celebrations there as a contributing factor, while in the next segment showing unmasked Trump followers in AZ at his speech there (admitted, idiots).I mean, you just have to shake your head.....

wilmwolf80 said:

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The unfortunate thing is that the public at large is completely incapable of understanding statistics, graphs, etc. If you put up a big number and say it's bad, people believe it. It is frankly irresponsible for the news to not provide the broader context and implications of these numbers. I've come to the conclusion that the folks in the media just don't actually have the capacity to understand the numbers any better than the general public.

---

100%.

We're a headline and news banner audience nowadays. No depth needed, just give me the 140 characters to tell me how bad things are.

People (including the media) don't even ask detailed questions or doubt the data, which is mind-numbing in this time.

wilmwolf80 said:

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The unfortunate thing is that the public at large is completely incapable of understanding statistics, graphs, etc. If you put up a big number and say it's bad, people believe it. It is frankly irresponsible for the news to not provide the broader context and implications of these numbers. I've come to the conclusion that the folks in the media just don't actually have the capacity to understand the numbers any better than the general public.

---

It was painful a few times I caught the WRAL 'graph explaining guy' on the news flipping by. Just a bunch of graphs on a screen and he would read numbers off as if it was the first time he had ever seen ANY data, let alone what was being reported on.

As this was passed off as 'news'. Context, unfortunately, doesn't get the same clicks and views as "BIG NUMBERS BAD, ME SEE BIG NUMBERS" that the news has become.

For all the "had to be a political move to hurt Trump" crowd for Cooper keeping bars closed -- you might want to get your knives out for the GOP governors of TX and FL, who have now closed bars again.

Wayland said:

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Quote:

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6/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
45,853
NC Deaths
1154
Currently Hospitalized
829 <- 85% still stable since increased from 73% yesterday reporting
Completed Tests
651,421

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
723 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
97 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+36 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

334 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
820 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+24)

193 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1196* and NandO is at 1169 deaths

751 positive cases over 12,942 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.

---

6/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
46,855
NC Deaths
1168
Currently Hospitalized
846 <- 86% reporting (was 829 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
667,422

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
729 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

340 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
828 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1208* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1002 positive cases over 16,001 new tests. 6.3% positive rate.

Dates of deaths reported today:
5/22 - 1
5/31 - 1
6/2 - 1
6/13 -2
6/14 - 2
6/15 - 3
6/16 - 4

Don't know who the back log belongs to. I think the majority of the deaths today were reported out of Meck/Guilford. But since they are also the two hardest places, just as likely to be the current reports.

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6/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
48,188
NC Deaths
1175
Currently Hospitalized
857 <- 88% reporting (was 846 at 86% yesterday) still roughly stable. higher % report.
Completed Tests
693,678

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
733 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

343 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
832 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+4)

195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1222* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1333 positive cases over 26,256 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

7 deaths reported today occurred between 6/11 and 6/17

54% of the delta in the case ethnicity data (where available) were Hispanic.

---

6/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
49,840
NC Deaths
1197
Currently Hospitalized
871 <- 91% reporting (was 857 at 88% yesterday) new high, but higher %. Roughly stable
Completed Tests
712,313

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
745 Deaths are now Congregate (+12)
105 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

347 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
850 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+18)

191 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1235* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1652 positive cases over 18,638 new tests. 8.9% positive rate.

These hospitalizations need to go down. The only bright side is that the % of reporting hospitals has increased each day that the overall number has increased. The number is relatively stable but NEEDS to decline.

The case total is lower than last Friday, so not a new high. That is a positive we see a little case stabilization, maybe.

16 of the deaths reported today are from the last week. There was an adjustment and one death was removed from 5/27. One death reported today was as far back as 5/17, one additional on 5/31.

Deaths are still being driven by congregate facilities.

Of the cases with a reported ethnicity, over 50% of new cases are Hispanic.

---

6/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
51389
NC Deaths
1212
Currently Hospitalized
883 <- 87% reporting (was 871 at 91% yesterday) new high.
Completed Tests
731,341

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
749 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
106 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+15 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

357 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
855 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

192 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1262* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1197 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1549 positive cases over 19028 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Hospitalizations creeping up. Both ICU and overall are higher. Still need to turn that corner. First day in a while not driven by congregate deaths. Most of the ICU increases are coming out of EHPC (Eastern NC) and MHPC (Meck). Most other groups are relatively stable.

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6/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
52801
NC Deaths
1220
Currently Hospitalized
845<- 74% reporting (was 883 at 87% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Stable/Small increase
Completed Tests
745,775


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
752 Deaths are now Congregate (+3)
108 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

360 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
860 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

190 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1269* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1197 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1412 positive cases over 14434 new tests. 9.8% positive rate.

3 day case rate reported last 6/12-6/14 = 4638, 6/19-621 = 4613. Cases stable week over week.

60% of new cases with ethnicity reported today are Hispanic. Need to keep focusing resources there to help.

---

6/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
53605
NC Deaths
1223
Currently Hospitalized
870<- 73% reporting (was 845 at 74% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Higher # admits.
Completed Tests
757.345


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
754 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
109 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

360 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
863 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

191 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1273* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1220 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

804 positive cases over 11570 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

Less than half of tests today had ethnicity data, would be interesting to know sourcing.

All 3 reported deaths were from 6/20-6/21.

---

6/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
54,453
NC Deaths
1251
Currently Hospitalized
915 new high <- 91% reporting (was 870 at 73% yesterday) Higher reporting %. Higher # admits.
Completed Tests
773,828

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
771 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
114 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

366 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
885 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

196 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1275* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1223 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

848 positive cases over 16,483 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.



Highest hospitalizations, but also one of the highest reporting days in weeks. This continues to creep up slowly and will be the reason for whatever Executive Orders come next, but dangerous to not provide context to this number.

Meck is having a tough time maintaining their peak case counts from last week. Still high but not as high.

Date of Death not updated yet.
I suspect a number of these deaths are lagged data. There has been a large gap in the DHHS data, and I feel like they were waiting for a quiet Tuesday to throw this all in. We will see if I am right. EDIT: WRAL showed a bit of a jump as well, so I expect we might see the lag data from the smaller counties come in over the next day as well.

Peak at the locations of deaths reported today, 5 Cumberland, 4 Robeson, and 3 Chatham. No other county above 2. I believe these are some of the counties I identified a while back as having a large disconnect with DHHS reporting. Most of this is 1 and 2 offs in smaller counties.

EDIT: As I was saying, 8 of the deaths added to the graph today are over 2 weeks old and an additional 3 are between 1 and 2 weeks old.

Deaths included from today are from 5/24, 5/25, 5/26, 6/1, 6/4(2), 6/5, 6/6, 6/11, and 6/13(2). The remaining deaths are from the last 7 days.

---

6/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
56,174
NC Deaths
1271 (Date of Death Graphy only lists 1266 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
906 <- 88% reporting (was 915 at 91% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Lower # admits.
Completed Tests
791,285

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
781 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
120 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

370 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
901 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

197 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1294* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1251 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1721 positive cases over 17,457 new tests. 9.9% positive rate.

Case data and day of death data have not been updated. Huge case dump to justify(?) whatever Cooper's decision is. Will be interesting to see if the next two days are also huge spikes, the high reporting usually comes later in the week.

Interesting. When I break down their county data, I only get 1461 cases assigned to counties. That leaves 260 cases that are not being assigned a location. I wonder why that is? Something about this feel a little like a data dump again.

Meck+ 247
Wake+ 147
Guilford +65
Forsyth +64
No other county over 40 new cases.

Even worse they have screwed up their Total Deaths by Date of Deaths graph by adding 20 deaths today in the Outbreaks and Clusters tab but only 15 in their Date of Death tab... so there is that. They are also now listing a missing date of death... which is kind of odd they don't know when someone died but they know how.

Even worse than stating that they only added 15 deaths to the chart today, they somehow actually added 22 instead of 20. HOT MESS.

Deaths again high from Cumberland and Guilford and DHHS now reporting higher deaths than the counties themselves report, wish I know why the reporting discrepancies.

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6/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
57,183
NC Deaths
1290 (Date of Death Graph only lists 1284 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
891 <- 90% reporting (was 906 at 88% yesterday) Higher reporting %. Lower # admits.
Completed Tests
811,278

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
787 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
130 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+19 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

373 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
917 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

200 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1317* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1009 positive cases over 19,993 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

Hospitalizations down. Cases lowest Thursday in weeks. Check out what I bolded from yesterday's post when I noticed the odd early week case spike.

Deaths were +22 on the Date of Death chart today (regardless of what they say). One death was removed from 5/8.
Deaths added today by date 5/15, 5/23, 5/27, 5/28, 6/3, 6/8, 6/13, 6/15(2), 6/16(2), 6/17, 6/19, 6/20, 6/22, 6/23(5), and 6/24(3).

So significant lagged data in the report today. It looks like they slide 6 of the old Robeson deaths and 4 old Meck deaths into today's data. Been waiting a long time for that Robeson reconciliation.

And notice yesterday when I remarked there were about an extra 260 cases that were missing a county from yesterday. Well guess what there are about about an extra 260 cases that are assigned a county over what was reported as a total. In the county level data 1254 cases were added even though the overall count was 1009. Yesterday they reported 1461 county cases but 1721 overall cases.

Data was juiced.

---

6/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
58,818
NC Deaths
1303 (Date of Death Graph only lists 1297 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
892 <- 90% reporting (was 891 at 90% yesterday) Same reporting %. One addl # admits.
Completed Tests
836,725

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
793 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
132 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+19 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

378 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
925 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

203 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1338* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1635 positive cases over 25447 new tests. 6.4% positive rate.

Date of death chart makes no sense today. 5 deaths were taken off of 6/15-6/16. One death was added as far back as 5/15. And 2 additional no dates of death were added. I just can't make any sense of the changes.

Nothing that unusual the county data. Deaths seem spread around (Columbus and Forsyth with 2)

Meck a +330 in cases, Wake +159. Durham +77, Forsyth +73, Guilford +59, Iredell +48, Johnston +44, New Hanover +44, Gaston +43.

I think they make it, but I suspect DNR status or Advanced directives send them back to LTC to pass in many cases

Something interesting (to me) I noticed is that Mecklenburg has almost 10k cases, but only 147 deaths.

So for the State, Mecklenburg is 17% of the cases (9944/58818) but only 11% of the deaths (144/1297)

Packchem91 said:

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For all the "had to be a political move to hurt Trump" crowd for Cooper keeping bars closed -- you might want to get your knives out for the GOP governors of TX and FL, who have now closed bars again.

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Not hard to see that one of Cooper's primary motivations is avoiding the mess that TX & FL are turning into right now. I imagine there is a balancing act between making decisions based solely on the cases/tests/hospitalizations figures for NC and using other states' differing reopening approaches and results as a guide and/or measuring stick for comparison.

IMO he should have moved to phase 3 while introducing the mask rule based on NC data and consideration of states that have reopened too quickly without proper precautions. Open up, mask up. If the NC numbers start to spike in a sustained, meaningful way.. adjust from there.

statefan91 said:

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Something interesting (to me) I noticed is that Mecklenburg has almost 10k cases, but only 147 deaths.

So for the State, Mecklenburg is 17% of the cases (9944/58818) but only 11% of the deaths (144/1297)

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https://www.wccbcharlotte.com/2020/06/26/mecklenburg-county-now-has-14-positive-cases-of-coronavirus/

Consider the source, but this article from earlier today states that "About 3 in 4 reported cases were adults ages 20 to 59 years old" for Mecklenburg which would explain the lower death totals.

Wayland said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

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That's a frustrating mush of an article, weaving the doctors concerns in with the CDC data saying the rate of infection is likely much higher than reported. Nobody bothering to connect the dots that if the rate of infection is ten times higher than reported, and we are at the current hospitalization levels, that actually means the risk of overwhelming the hospital system is lower.

---

More WRAL trying to make panic porn. I mean I thought we have basically known for months (well anyone that was actually paying attention to the 'science') that the true number of cases out there was like a 10x on reported. I didn't take the CDC coming out and saying that as a 'dire warning', it is just the opposite. This is a lot LESS deadly than was being reported.

On top of that, the CDC is only estimating that number based on antibody serology studies. When there could be (as articles have suggested) even more resolved cases that are out there that aren't being identified in AB testing because of lowered IgG over time or were protected with other immune system defenses such as T-cells.

There is so a different angle to look at all this information in the wake of the pandemic, that there might actually be a light to the end of the tunnel and that we are actually a lot further along in getting past this.

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I stopped watching wral 2 months ago because of their biased & theatrical news coVerage. Haven't missed it at all. Cut the cord & it will set you free!

acslater1344 said:

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statefan91 said:

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Something interesting (to me) I noticed is that Mecklenburg has almost 10k cases, but only 147 deaths.

So for the State, Mecklenburg is 17% of the cases (9944/58818) but only 11% of the deaths (144/1297)

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https://www.wccbcharlotte.com/2020/06/26/mecklenburg-county-now-has-14-positive-cases-of-coronavirus/

Consider the source, but this article from earlier today states that "About 3 in 4 reported cases were adults ages 20 to 59 years old" for Mecklenburg which would explain the lower death totals.

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Thanks - that text comes from the Mecklenburg DHHS site: https://www.mecknc.gov/news/Pages/Mecklenburg-County-COVID-19-Data-for-June-24.aspx

Highlights about the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Mecklenburg County as of June 24, 2020 include:

• About 3 in 4 reported cases were adults ages 20 to 59 years old.
  
• More than a third of reported cases are Hispanic most of whom are younger adults. The high number of reported cases among young Hispanics over the last several weeks remains a significant concern. As previously noted, some factors influencing this trend include:
  
  • Targeted testing occurring in neighborhoods with lower access to care, some of which have larger Hispanic populations;
  • Higher proportions of Hispanics working in essential jobs that make social distancing difficult;
  • Significant household spread among large families; and
  • Pre-existing disparities in other social and economic determinants of health, like poverty.
  
  MCPH continues to expand outreach to Hispanic members of our community, including increased dissemination of the outreach toolkit in Spanish for community partners, setting up targeted outreach to Hispanic owned- and serving-businesses, and partnering with local organizations and media outlets to spread key prevention messages.
  
• About 1 in 15 reported cases were hospitalized due to their COVID-19 infection. While everyone is at risk for severe COVID-19 complications, reported cases who were older adults ( 60 years) were more likely to be hospitalized compared to younger individuals.
  
• More than half of cases have met CDC criteria to be released from isolation.
  
• During the past week, an average of 134 individuals with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 infections were hospitalized at acute care facilities in Mecklenburg County. This represents an increase over the last 14-days. These data are based on daily census counts from acute care facilities in Mecklenburg County reporting to MCPH.
• During the past week, an average of 10.3 percent of individuals who were tested were positive for COVID-19. This represents a slight decrease over the last 14-days. These data only include tests conducted by Atrium Health, Novant Health, and CVS Health. After several weeks of local effort and coordination with NC DHHS, a new reporting mechanism with CVS Health is now active. Data since May 29 were provided, validated, and included in this report. As anticipated, these additions had very little impact on the overall trends. Atrium Health, Novant Health and CVS Health together administer most COVID-19 tests in Mecklenburg County, as such these trends are consistent and reliable over time.
  
  Reporting of negative results to MCPH is not currently required or covered by communicable disease reporting laws. MCPH will include results from other providers and laboratories as accurate, consistent and timely reporting mechanisms are established.
  
• One hundred-forty-seven deaths due to COVID-19 occurred among reported cases.
  
  • Almost all deaths were among older adults ( 60 years), 16 deaths were adults ages 40 to 59.
  • All deaths, except two, occurred among adults with underlying chronic illnesses.
  • More than half were non-Hispanic Whites. The disparity in COVID-19 deaths among non-Hispanic Whites is related to differences in race/ethnicity of residents of long-term care (LTC) facilities actively experiencing an outbreak.
  • Nearly 2 out of 3 deaths were connected to active outbreaks at long-term care (LTC) facilities.
    
• Based on publicly available mobility tracking data, there was a decrease in social distancing in Mecklenburg County over the last 14-days. Mobility is nearing baseline levels prior to the Stay at Home Order becoming effective.

wilmwolf80 said:

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I've come to the conclusion that the folks in the media just don't actually have the capacity to understand the numbers any better than the general public.

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This might be a bigger problem than the media's inherent bias. These media members are just not very bright. Can anyone name a journalist under fifty that you consider brilliant?

Heh! Actually, I guess the same could be said of the media dinosaurs that are still around. It's never been a profession that attracts the best and the brightest.

Just listen to the questions asked at these press conferences. Most are political or ignorant. No depth in the questions to understand the consequences of the policies being implemented. No nuance applied to the numbers being released and how that might hurt the public moving forward.

I will give former NYT reporter Alex Berenson credit for at least challenging the status quo script of almost every other reporter out there. It will be interesting to see if he survives and possibly thrives as a result. I hope so for the sake of journalism moving forward.

Each State needs to have a Data Scientist involved in these dashboards, to have mistakes like this is criminal.

I see headlines about surges in the number of cases some areas and states. To me, that's a concern, but I need more information than just an increase in cases. Who is getting it? How many have serious symptoms? How many require ICU? If you have a surge that is simply the result of a corresponding surge in testing, that should be expected. If you have a surge in young people getting it, which seems to be the case currently, and they aren't experiencing severe symptoms or requiring hospitalization, that's not really concerning to me. Yes, those young people could spread the virus to others that may be more at risk, but that only serves to highlight the precautions that need to be taken to protect the elderly and vulnerable.

For those that are FAR more intelligent than I am... and how does this compare to the Moses Cone System?

https://www.wect.com/2020/06/26/nhrmc-releases-covid-data-state-rep-demands-nc-harden-virus-directives-hospitals/

It appears there has been roughly 32,000,000 test taken to date. The positive rate so far is 7.8% of total cases. Is is roughly 4% of active cases. We've tested just about as many people as there is in the entire country of Canada. Now, if scientists and people who are supposed to be smarter then me, believe that the total positive case number is 10x what has been found to date, wouldn't that mean we've done a pretty damn good job?

That would mean roughly 35 million Americans have already had it which means 32 million roughly didn't even know(never showed signs, symptoms, etc.) And if that is the case and you take total deaths so far from it(no, I don't believe the total deaths are accurate) but for the sake of argument we will go with them, then the total deaths rate of this virus is 3% if you believe the 10x number some are suggesting have truly been infected. That's not that terrible either.

After taking with my brother who has his PHD is Pharmacy and his Master's in clinical research and a Master's in biology, works a major hospital in the state. He told me something that was interesting. They have yet to come close to capacity in their ICU section. The place he works has their numbers checked daily and when I saw them, I was alarmed. I noticed the ICU/hospitalization numbers had jumped a lot over the past 3 weeks. Figuring the way it's reported it has to be covid, I texted him and he called me back. I ask him what was going on and his response was "we put people in the hospital for multiple things. Not once, not one single time, has the government agencies ask who is and isn't COVID19. We've tried to break it down for them and their response is they don't want to know they just want the total number of hospitalizations and ICU patience." To say he was angry is an understatement. Now, he is a diehard, far left as you can get, board line socialist Democrat. He is pissed they way the state is handing things. He said through all his discussions with other colleagues, they just can't believe the data is so flawed in this state.

TheStorm said:

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For those that are FAR more intelligent than I am... and how does this compare to the Moses Cone System?

https://www.wect.com/2020/06/26/nhrmc-releases-covid-data-state-rep-demands-nc-harden-virus-directives-hospitals/

---

I'm far from intelligent so I'm hoping someone helps out with this. Actually, hoping someone breaks it down for me in 4th grade terms lol.

Reading that, I'm disappointed, but not particularly surprised, that my hometown hospital isn't testing patients before bringing them in for surgery. That would seem to be a no brainier. I also find it interesting that based on the numbers they provided, NH county hasn't been heavily impacted at all, which you wouldn't know by my Facebook feed. Honestly, 151 people hospitalized is much lower than I would've thought. Looking at the numbers on the DHHS dashboard, they only show 5 deaths for NH county, but the hospital has had 24 according to that article. Just more frustration about but having accurate numbers for me.

On a personal note, my ex GF works in the covid group at NH hospital as a nurse. We had been exchanging messages fairly regularly since this started, but she's gone dark lately. It makes me wonder if she got it.

wilmwolf80 said:

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Reading that, I'm disappointed, but not particularly surprised, that my hometown hospital isn't testing patients before bringing them in for surgery. That would seem to be a no brainier. I also find it interesting that based on the numbers they provided, NH county hasn't been heavily impacted at all, which you wouldn't know by my Facebook feed. Honestly, 151 people hospitalized is much lower than I would've thought. Looking at the numbers on the DHHS dashboard, they only show 5 deaths for NH county, but the hospital has had 24 according to that article. Just more frustration about but having accurate numbers for me.

On a personal note, my ex GF works in the covid group at NH hospital as a nurse. We had been exchanging messages fairly regularly since this started, but she's gone dark lately. It makes me wonder if she got it.

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I don't know the hospital structure down there, but is it possible they picked up cases from nearby counties like Columbus? Patient dies in hospital but death is assigned to where the person actually lives.

I wouldn't think so. Plenty of big regional hospitals in the surrounding counties. But I guess it's possible people are being sent here if they feel like they have a better chance of taking care of them. Who knows?

wilmwolf80 said:

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On a personal note, my ex GF works in the covid group at NH hospital as a nurse. We had been exchanging messages fairly regularly since this started, but she's gone dark lately. It makes me wonder if she got it.

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Only one way to find out...

If you want to go down some rabbit holes on twitter. Interesting theory (follow some of his sub-tweet theads in there as well). Brings up theory for discussion, not claiming proof.

Here is the thread reader version:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1276870968112115714.html

I suspect that's because meck is less LTC per capita

TheStorm said:

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For those that are FAR more intelligent than I am... and how does this compare to the Moses Cone System?

https://www.wect.com/2020/06/26/nhrmc-releases-covid-data-state-rep-demands-nc-harden-virus-directives-hospitals/

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We are testing all elective surgeries
We are testing all admits from the ER and all poorly responsive that can't answer questions

Last week I got pushback from anesthesia about bringing up a dying patient with a posterior fossa hemorrhage in the ED because his rapid covid wasn't back and he didn't want his team potentially exposed. I blew a gasket and had the ED doc intubate him and I rolled him up to the OR.

This week I discharged a negative post op patient who bounced back to the ED the next day for re admission and he had to be tested again to be put in for obs for one night.

A doc friend had a community exposure, and because he wasn't symptomatic he couldn't get the rapid test. Could get the 48 hr test but by then could have exposed many staff and patients and friends if the data out of China suggesting 44% exposure risk in pre symptomatics has any validity. And even if you test negative, can you trust that to make decisions about exposing others to yourself??? I would personally, but it's imperfect at best.

Mormad said:

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TheStorm said:

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For those that are FAR more intelligent than I am... and how does this compare to the Moses Cone System?

https://www.wect.com/2020/06/26/nhrmc-releases-covid-data-state-rep-demands-nc-harden-virus-directives-hospitals/

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We are testing all elective surgeries
We are testing all admits from the ER and all poorly responsive that can't answer questions

Last week I got pushback from anesthesia about bringing up a dying patient with a posterior fossa hemorrhage in the ED because his rapid covid wasn't back and he didn't want his team potentially exposed. I blew a gasket and had the ED doc intubate him and I rolled him up to the OR.

This week I discharged a negative post op patient who bounced back to the ED the next day for re admission and he had to be tested again to be put in for obs for one night.

A doc friend had a community exposure, and because he wasn't symptomatic he couldn't get the rapid test. Could get the 48 hr test but by then could have exposed many staff and patients and friends if the data out of China suggesting 44% exposure risk in pre symptomatics has any validity. And even if you test negative, can you trust that to make decisions about exposing others to yourself??? I would personally, but it's imperfect at best.

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Do you know James Hirsch by chance?