Anyone near Duplin County. On June 25th they are doing a blood drive at the Duplin County Events Center. Anyone who donated blood or plasma for those recovered from COVID19 get a free antibody test and a $10 gift card. Perfect time to help a cause and find out if you have already been exposed to COVID19.
Coronavirus
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Last: 1 day ago by Werewolf
Yep, I just did something like this in Meck. Negative on antibodies for me
If ya'll really want to get po'd, read Joe Bruno's (reporter for Charlotte's WSOC TV who has been all over Corona and the race protests in CLT) tweet thread from last night about how Mecklenburg County is not currently including test results administered by Tryon Medical (one of the largest medical conglomerates in CLT), CVS, Walgreens, or any Urgent Care in the area UNLESS they come back as positive.Wayland said:Bummer that it looks like another month at least until resolution.packgrad said:
Maybe the media is finally starting to listen to Wayland and Davie. Dozens of outlets are suing the governor and NCDHHS to make records public. It also appears they cherry pick who gets to ask questions at each conference.
Although it makes me feel better that there are media members out there fighting for this information. I just wish they would make this fight more public in general.
So in RWW's example above, where all family members except the aunt tested negative, if that had been done at Tryon Medical, Meck County would have reported test rate at 100% for that family, as opposed to the <10% it should have been.
For a county / state now throwing out revised lockdowns, that should at least be partially based on positive test rate, that decision to omit should cost people some jobs.
I knew that Positive Rate on the DHHS was suspect since it didn't align to anything that could be discerned day over day. Which is why DHHS should be compelled to report the ACTUAL numbers used to calculate Positive Rate. Just be transparent with data, hell, there are enough of us out here that are willing to do the analysis and calculations for free.Packchem91 said:If ya'll really want to get po'd, read Joe Bruno's (reporter for Charlotte's WSOC TV who has been all over Corona and the race protests in CLT) tweet thread from last night about how Mecklenburg County is not currently including test results administered by Tryon Medical (one of the largest medical conglomerates in CLT), CVS, Walgreens, or any Urgent Care in the area UNLESS they come back as positive.Wayland said:Bummer that it looks like another month at least until resolution.packgrad said:
Maybe the media is finally starting to listen to Wayland and Davie. Dozens of outlets are suing the governor and NCDHHS to make records public. It also appears they cherry pick who gets to ask questions at each conference.
Although it makes me feel better that there are media members out there fighting for this information. I just wish they would make this fight more public in general.
So in RWW's example above, where all family members except the aunt tested negative, if that had been done at Tryon Medical, Meck County would have reported test rate at 100% for that family, as opposed to the <10% it should have been.
For a county / state now throwing out revised lockdowns, that should at least be partially based on positive test rate, that decision to omit should cost people some jobs.
It's disheartening to see our leaders hide things and not go about this honestly. Everything is political even a pandemic. Cooper is trying to manipulate things to benefit him for November. All of them are. It's sad and this is why nobody trusts anything that they say nor do they trust any media sources. In the absence of true leadership a vacuum is left for everyone from guerilla to BLM. I hope we get the truth soon from DHHS.Wayland said:I knew that Positive Rate on the DHHS was suspect since it didn't align to anything that could be discerned day over day. Which is why DHHS should be compelled to report the ACTUAL numbers used to calculate Positive Rate. Just be transparent with data, hell, there are enough of us out here that are willing to do the analysis and calculations for free.Packchem91 said:If ya'll really want to get po'd, read Joe Bruno's (reporter for Charlotte's WSOC TV who has been all over Corona and the race protests in CLT) tweet thread from last night about how Mecklenburg County is not currently including test results administered by Tryon Medical (one of the largest medical conglomerates in CLT), CVS, Walgreens, or any Urgent Care in the area UNLESS they come back as positive.Wayland said:Bummer that it looks like another month at least until resolution.packgrad said:
Maybe the media is finally starting to listen to Wayland and Davie. Dozens of outlets are suing the governor and NCDHHS to make records public. It also appears they cherry pick who gets to ask questions at each conference.
Although it makes me feel better that there are media members out there fighting for this information. I just wish they would make this fight more public in general.
So in RWW's example above, where all family members except the aunt tested negative, if that had been done at Tryon Medical, Meck County would have reported test rate at 100% for that family, as opposed to the <10% it should have been.
For a county / state now throwing out revised lockdowns, that should at least be partially based on positive test rate, that decision to omit should cost people some jobs.
How you feeling buddy? You still recovering ok?acslater1344 said:RunsWithWolves26 said:GuerrillaPack said:Honest question for you or anyone....how does this test to see if someone "has covid-19" work? And how reliable truly is it?RunsWithWolves26 said:
You're insensitive every single time you come on here ranting and raving about the "fake" virus. Just an FYI, and not that you give a damn, my aunt was perfectly healthy before this outside of being over 60 and having minimal blood pressure issues and she got it. She actually got a "fake" virus. Insensitive is what you are and what you've always been.
Honest answer. I don't know but I damn sure don't act like you and act like I know everything. I damn sure don't deny it's real and rant and rave that it's fake from the mountain tops. I know that my aunt along with 3 others that died from it, had all the symptoms of this, as you call it, "fake" virus. Again, I don't claim to know everything like you do. I don't ignore facts and stick to my crazy opinions like you do. I do know you are about the most insensitive, opinionated, and wrong person I've ever done across.
It's not worth it, brother. GP is the crazy uncle of these boards. No reason to entertain his nonsense.
ncsualum05 said:It's disheartening to see our leaders hide things and not go about this honestly. Everything is political even a pandemic. Cooper is trying to manipulate things to benefit him for November. All of them are. It's sad and this is why nobody trusts anything that they say nor do they trust any media sources. In the absence of true leadership a vacuum is left for everyone from guerilla to BLM. I hope we get the truth soon from DHHS.Wayland said:I knew that Positive Rate on the DHHS was suspect since it didn't align to anything that could be discerned day over day. Which is why DHHS should be compelled to report the ACTUAL numbers used to calculate Positive Rate. Just be transparent with data, hell, there are enough of us out here that are willing to do the analysis and calculations for free.Packchem91 said:If ya'll really want to get po'd, read Joe Bruno's (reporter for Charlotte's WSOC TV who has been all over Corona and the race protests in CLT) tweet thread from last night about how Mecklenburg County is not currently including test results administered by Tryon Medical (one of the largest medical conglomerates in CLT), CVS, Walgreens, or any Urgent Care in the area UNLESS they come back as positive.Wayland said:Bummer that it looks like another month at least until resolution.packgrad said:
Maybe the media is finally starting to listen to Wayland and Davie. Dozens of outlets are suing the governor and NCDHHS to make records public. It also appears they cherry pick who gets to ask questions at each conference.
Although it makes me feel better that there are media members out there fighting for this information. I just wish they would make this fight more public in general.
So in RWW's example above, where all family members except the aunt tested negative, if that had been done at Tryon Medical, Meck County would have reported test rate at 100% for that family, as opposed to the <10% it should have been.
For a county / state now throwing out revised lockdowns, that should at least be partially based on positive test rate, that decision to omit should cost people some jobs.
Even as hospitalizations rise and we should rightfully be concerned. We should keep things in true perspective and talk about what the changes are with the panicked hyperbole that the media or doomers like to use.
But we can even look north to Virginia. They topped out at 1625 concurrent hospitalizations.
And seem to be on a decline now.
So if we get a fuller picture of what is going on in NC, we should be able to understand better using the experiences of states and countries that are farther along in the curve. I am not saying things are going to get better overnight, but we went for a flatter curve. Our peak is going to be hard to discern, but we have so many different examples of what other places have gone through, that we should be able to see that at some point the trend will shift.
So until then, we need to keep taking 'reasonable' precautions, testing, tracing, and limiting outbreaks. And not panicking. This won't burn the fields and salt the earth.
NC has had things relatively easy through all this, so people are freaking out at every small hop.
But I hear things like "Hospitalizations double in NC the last few weeks" when they went from 702 on 5/27 (three weeks ago) to 846 6/17 yesterday, I see a concerning trend. But let's not pretend we are in full on exponential growth. We absolutely need to take steps to mitigate, but by not being honest with what the data actually is we can't create good policy and practices.
That's insane! Adding only positives from 25% of tests being run and not the negatives throws the % positive completely out of whack.
I wonder if other counties are doing the same?
I wonder if other counties are doing the same?
I feel like people should be making a bigger deal about this. The government is deliberately putting out incomplete data and using it to make polices that effect people's livelihoods.Packchem91 said:If ya'll really want to get po'd, read Joe Bruno's (reporter for Charlotte's WSOC TV who has been all over Corona and the race protests in CLT) tweet thread from last night about how Mecklenburg County is not currently including test results administered by Tryon Medical (one of the largest medical conglomerates in CLT), CVS, Walgreens, or any Urgent Care in the area UNLESS they come back as positive.Wayland said:Bummer that it looks like another month at least until resolution.packgrad said:
Maybe the media is finally starting to listen to Wayland and Davie. Dozens of outlets are suing the governor and NCDHHS to make records public. It also appears they cherry pick who gets to ask questions at each conference.
Although it makes me feel better that there are media members out there fighting for this information. I just wish they would make this fight more public in general.
So in RWW's example above, where all family members except the aunt tested negative, if that had been done at Tryon Medical, Meck County would have reported test rate at 100% for that family, as opposed to the <10% it should have been.
For a county / state now throwing out revised lockdowns, that should at least be partially based on positive test rate, that decision to omit should cost people some jobs.
They're leaving out almost 25% of negative tests and the media plays along with their fear mongering.
It is a massive deal. Transparency is everything.kmb717 said:I feel like people should be making a bigger deal about this. The government is deliberately putting out incomplete data and using it to make polices that effect people's livelihoods.Packchem91 said:If ya'll really want to get po'd, read Joe Bruno's (reporter for Charlotte's WSOC TV who has been all over Corona and the race protests in CLT) tweet thread from last night about how Mecklenburg County is not currently including test results administered by Tryon Medical (one of the largest medical conglomerates in CLT), CVS, Walgreens, or any Urgent Care in the area UNLESS they come back as positive.Wayland said:Bummer that it looks like another month at least until resolution.packgrad said:
Maybe the media is finally starting to listen to Wayland and Davie. Dozens of outlets are suing the governor and NCDHHS to make records public. It also appears they cherry pick who gets to ask questions at each conference.
Although it makes me feel better that there are media members out there fighting for this information. I just wish they would make this fight more public in general.
So in RWW's example above, where all family members except the aunt tested negative, if that had been done at Tryon Medical, Meck County would have reported test rate at 100% for that family, as opposed to the <10% it should have been.
For a county / state now throwing out revised lockdowns, that should at least be partially based on positive test rate, that decision to omit should cost people some jobs.
They're leaving out almost 25% of negative tests and the media plays along with their fear mongering.
People in general don't know about it. Due to the group think on social media, any time I've seen someone try to educate people on it, they get shouted down by the mob.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
It's a shame that the government and media control the narrative and all the sheep will just mindlessly follow them. The biggest thing I've taken away from this whole ordeal is just how little people can actually think for themselves.
Yeah, all these sports media types I follow go ballistic when Trump mocks/ignores/abuses the press (they are right to be bothered).but are silent on this -- in their home state, and often home town. Its mind boggling.kmb717 said:I feel like people should be making a bigger deal about this. The government is deliberately putting out incomplete data and using it to make polices that effect people's livelihoods.Packchem91 said:If ya'll really want to get po'd, read Joe Bruno's (reporter for Charlotte's WSOC TV who has been all over Corona and the race protests in CLT) tweet thread from last night about how Mecklenburg County is not currently including test results administered by Tryon Medical (one of the largest medical conglomerates in CLT), CVS, Walgreens, or any Urgent Care in the area UNLESS they come back as positive.Wayland said:Bummer that it looks like another month at least until resolution.packgrad said:
Maybe the media is finally starting to listen to Wayland and Davie. Dozens of outlets are suing the governor and NCDHHS to make records public. It also appears they cherry pick who gets to ask questions at each conference.
Although it makes me feel better that there are media members out there fighting for this information. I just wish they would make this fight more public in general.
So in RWW's example above, where all family members except the aunt tested negative, if that had been done at Tryon Medical, Meck County would have reported test rate at 100% for that family, as opposed to the <10% it should have been.
For a county / state now throwing out revised lockdowns, that should at least be partially based on positive test rate, that decision to omit should cost people some jobs.
They're leaving out almost 25% of negative tests and the media plays along with their fear mongering.
Short of....HIPAA or some other regulation prevented the other medicals from sharing...which is not the case here....this should be a firable offense.
If you have doubts about the validity of the results...concerned about too many false negatives, for example, put an asterisk on your data and say that. But don't ignore 25% of your data, and then have city / area leaders complaining about how high the positive rate has become and its therefore going to influence decisions....
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I have been DMing a reporter who has been closely tracking the data and can provide some insight that may be helpful. On the NCDHHS dashboard in the Testing section, they include the graph below. As I now understand it, the percentages on this graph are calculated only from those agencies reporting both positive and negative testing results. This now helps to explain why the percentages I have been calculating, do not always match the percent positive being reported on this graph by NCDHHS. So, the percentage NCDHHS is not as inaccurate as it could be if they were including the positive test results without the full set of tests.Wayland said:It is a massive deal. Transparency is everything.kmb717 said:I feel like people should be making a bigger deal about this. The government is deliberately putting out incomplete data and using it to make polices that effect people's livelihoods.Packchem91 said:If ya'll really want to get po'd, read Joe Bruno's (reporter for Charlotte's WSOC TV who has been all over Corona and the race protests in CLT) tweet thread from last night about how Mecklenburg County is not currently including test results administered by Tryon Medical (one of the largest medical conglomerates in CLT), CVS, Walgreens, or any Urgent Care in the area UNLESS they come back as positive.Wayland said:Bummer that it looks like another month at least until resolution.packgrad said:
Maybe the media is finally starting to listen to Wayland and Davie. Dozens of outlets are suing the governor and NCDHHS to make records public. It also appears they cherry pick who gets to ask questions at each conference.
Although it makes me feel better that there are media members out there fighting for this information. I just wish they would make this fight more public in general.
So in RWW's example above, where all family members except the aunt tested negative, if that had been done at Tryon Medical, Meck County would have reported test rate at 100% for that family, as opposed to the <10% it should have been.
For a county / state now throwing out revised lockdowns, that should at least be partially based on positive test rate, that decision to omit should cost people some jobs.
They're leaving out almost 25% of negative tests and the media plays along with their fear mongering.
This is how NCDHHS has explained it to him. It is worth monitoring, but it does help explain how NCDHHS is calculating the percentage, since it was an area I could never reconcile.
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I will also add that NCDHHS is at the mercy of the health groups reporting the numbers. State law does not require them to report negative tests, only to report illnesses (ie., positive tests). Many groups will not report all testing due to the cost of compiling and maintaining the records. For this to change, state law must be changed.
One of the problems is that these days, everything has to be black/white, yes/no, all/nothing. If you question the validity of the numbers, then you must be a crazy person who thinks the virus is fake or whatever. That just simply isn't the case. As we see on this thread, most all of us acknowledge the severity and unknown of the virus. The fact that we want transparency in the numbers, numbers that are being used to justify decisions made for the whole population, isn't an indictment on our belief in the virus, nor the measures being taken. These days you aren't allowed to have that kind of nuanced opinion. If you aren't with one mob, you must be with the other.kmb717 said:
It's a shame that the government and media control the narrative and all the sheep will just mindlessly follow them. The biggest thing I've taken away from this whole ordeal is just how little people can actually think for themselves.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
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As some good news, it does appear the number of older NC residents being infected with Covid-19 are declining. This is good news, since it means infection rates are shifting from the more "at risk" groups to ages where the risks are lower. You can see the shift from the graph below. It shows the percentage of cases by age group for the past four months.
6/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:Quote:
6/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)
NC Cases
45,853
NC Deaths
1154
Currently Hospitalized
829 <- 85% still stable since increased from 73% yesterday reporting
Completed Tests
651,421
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
723 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
97 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+36 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
334 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
820 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+24)
193 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1196* and NandO is at 1169 deaths
751 positive cases over 12,942 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.
6/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)
NC Cases
46,855
NC Deaths
1168
Currently Hospitalized
846 <- 86% reporting (was 829 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
667,422
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
729 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
340 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
828 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)
195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1208* and NandO is at 1181 deaths
1002 positive cases over 16,001 new tests. 6.3% positive rate.
Dates of deaths reported today:
5/22 - 1
5/31 - 1
6/2 - 1
6/13 -2
6/14 - 2
6/15 - 3
6/16 - 4
Don't know who the back log belongs to. I think the majority of the deaths today were reported out of Meck/Guilford. But since they are also the two hardest places, just as likely to be the current reports.
NC Cases
48,188
NC Deaths
1175
Currently Hospitalized
857 <- 88% reporting (was 846 at 86% yesterday) still roughly stable. higher % report.
Completed Tests
693,678
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
733 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
343 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
832 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+4)
195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1222* and NandO is at 1181 deaths
1333 positive cases over 26,256 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
7 deaths reported today occurred between 6/11 and 6/17
54% of the delta in the case ethnicity data (where available) were Hispanic.
It still doesn't give me a great feeling that they can report 1300 cases out of 26000 tests and called that 9%Daviewolf83 said:I have been DMing a reporter who has been closely tracking the data and can provide some insight that may be helpful. On the NCDHHS dashboard in the Testing section, they include the graph below. As I now understand it, the percentages on this graph are calculated only from those agencies reporting both positive and negative testing results. This now helps to explain why the percentages I have been calculating, do not always match the percent positive being reported on this graph by NCDHHS. So, the percentage NCDHHS is not as inaccurate as it could be if they were including the positive test results without the full set of tests.Wayland said:It is a massive deal. Transparency is everything.kmb717 said:I feel like people should be making a bigger deal about this. The government is deliberately putting out incomplete data and using it to make polices that effect people's livelihoods.Packchem91 said:If ya'll really want to get po'd, read Joe Bruno's (reporter for Charlotte's WSOC TV who has been all over Corona and the race protests in CLT) tweet thread from last night about how Mecklenburg County is not currently including test results administered by Tryon Medical (one of the largest medical conglomerates in CLT), CVS, Walgreens, or any Urgent Care in the area UNLESS they come back as positive.Wayland said:Bummer that it looks like another month at least until resolution.packgrad said:
Maybe the media is finally starting to listen to Wayland and Davie. Dozens of outlets are suing the governor and NCDHHS to make records public. It also appears they cherry pick who gets to ask questions at each conference.
Although it makes me feel better that there are media members out there fighting for this information. I just wish they would make this fight more public in general.
So in RWW's example above, where all family members except the aunt tested negative, if that had been done at Tryon Medical, Meck County would have reported test rate at 100% for that family, as opposed to the <10% it should have been.
For a county / state now throwing out revised lockdowns, that should at least be partially based on positive test rate, that decision to omit should cost people some jobs.
They're leaving out almost 25% of negative tests and the media plays along with their fear mongering.
This is how NCDHHS has explained it to him. It is worth monitoring, but it does help explain how NCDHHS is calculating the percentage, since it was an area I could never reconcile.
They need to come up with a better answer because that is a huge gap in numbers. Show the actual numbers that you are using them and how you source them. Given how bad they are with data otherwise, it just feels off.
It looks like DHHS assigned 5000+ of the tests total reported today to other days. Why do that for a 'Day reported' test? Sketchy backdating there as well.
Four months in and we still haven't figured out how to accurately test and report data? That's a major failure at the state level and comes back directly to Cooper.
This clown will create further restrictions based on flawed data.
This clown will create further restrictions based on flawed data.
NC is now testing all 31000+ prisoners and staff in the prison systems over the next 60 days.
Comprehensive package to slow the spread coming next week from Cooper for the state and next phase. Scared what that means.
Comprehensive package to slow the spread coming next week from Cooper for the state and next phase. Scared what that means.
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Likely means mandatory mask wearing and delays in reopening the economy further. Cooper and Dr. Cohen were both wearing masks at the start of today's press conference. I believe this is a signal as to what is coming. I think gyms, bars, and other indoor establishments can forget about reopening until July at the earliest. I am not as worried about cases as some people are, but I am concerned about the increasing hospitalizations and the growing number of Covid patients in ICU. I think a lot of the growth in cases and hospitalizations are being driven by food processing plants,an increase in people attending church and other large gatherings like the protests over the past couple of weeks.Wayland said:
NC is now testing all 31000+ prisoners and staff in the prison systems over the next 60 days.
Comprehensive package to slow the spread coming next week from Cooper for the state and next phase. Scared what that means.
I am most worried about what happens in the Fall with schools. For a lot of reasons, schools need to reopen in the Fall. Personally, I think NC should be following the lead of the major universities. Start classes in mid-August, no Fall break and limit other school holidays, complete all classes by Thanksgiving and do not return until the third week of January at the earliest. When school resumes, all students and staff/teachers should wear masks when on the buses to school and when on campus.
I still believe a large number of cases we are finding now are due to the huge increases in testing, but not all of it is due to the larger testing numbers. I did a quick analysis this morning of case growth and you can see the results below. I applied the current average daily testing for June (14,722 tests/day) to the actual percent positive for each day in April and May. This is a crude way of looking at the effect of testing increases on case growth. You could argue that cases reported daily are "discovered" cases and are only found if there is a lot of testing. The more testing you do, the more cases you will "discover." Assuming the percent positive is constant for each day and cases are dependent on the number of tests, you can project how many cases you may have found if you had only tested more people at the higher levels we are now doing. When comparing to the actual numbers, it is clear cases were coming down during late April and early May, before beginning to head back up in late May and June.
Hospitalization numbers do confuse me right now. Based on the graph below and comparing to current hospitalization levels, we should have seen more people hospitalized in April and early May. I have not been able to reconcile this yet, but I think it is due to the increased testing. We are now finding people who may have not been admitted to a hospital, but they are now being admitted. This goes along with Wayland's observation that the people being admitted now seem to be less severe than they were in April and early May.
Great graph. I think we are seeing our Phase 2 surge, I have hopes that it can settle back this week. I had thought this week would have been a spike in deaths and cases based on the opening.
I am glad we didn't do the damage that the states in the NE did to their populace. I was talking to a friend in Boston a few weeks ago about how I was much more comfortable with MA's exit curve than I was with NC. I still feel like those states exhausted the virus (as did a number of the hardest hit European countries).
NC we never peaked, so we really have no good insight into what our penetration level is. The state doesn't care to actually sample and survey, again, not that I am sure those antibody tests are reliable. Even when we hit the peak we might not realize it.
Frustrates the hell out of me to see Cuomo and those states in the NE thump their chests about 'crushing the curve' when all they did was exhaust the virus.
We can get there.
I am glad we didn't do the damage that the states in the NE did to their populace. I was talking to a friend in Boston a few weeks ago about how I was much more comfortable with MA's exit curve than I was with NC. I still feel like those states exhausted the virus (as did a number of the hardest hit European countries).
NC we never peaked, so we really have no good insight into what our penetration level is. The state doesn't care to actually sample and survey, again, not that I am sure those antibody tests are reliable. Even when we hit the peak we might not realize it.
Frustrates the hell out of me to see Cuomo and those states in the NE thump their chests about 'crushing the curve' when all they did was exhaust the virus.
We can get there.
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Based on what a Wake Forest Baptist hospital epidemiologist said a few weeks ago, I believe penetration levels in the higher impacted areas such as Mechlenburg County, the Triad, and Raleigh/Durham are likely in the 4-5% range. For other parts of the state, likely in the 2% range or less. This is based on the anti-body testing begin conducted by Wake Forest that was funded by the republicans in the Legislature. This is likely why NC never saw a huge "peak" in cases like the states in the Northeast.Wayland said:
Great graph. I think we are seeing our Phase 2 surge, I have hopes that it can settle back this week. I had thought this week would have been a spike in deaths and cases based on the opening.
I am glad we didn't do the damage that the states in the NE did to their populace. I was talking to a friend in Boston a few weeks ago about how I was much more comfortable with MA's exit curve than I was with NC. I still feel like those states exhausted the virus (as did a number of the hardest hit European countries).
NC we never peaked, so we really have no good insight into what our penetration level is. The state doesn't care to actually sample and survey, again, not that I am sure those antibody tests are reliable. Even when we hit the peak we might not realize it.
Frustrates the hell out of me to see Cuomo and those states in the NE thump their chests about 'crushing the curve' when all they did was exhaust the virus.
We can get there.
As a result, our case curve is relatively flat, with low slope increases/decreases from the beginning to the present. NC has not been able to exhaust the virus, since we never hit a large level of infection across the population. This is actually good, but it means we will continue to have a slow burn with upticks when restrictions are eased or when there are significant outbreaks.
I think if a larger portion of the population were to wear masks and to keep distancing, we will see the curve flatten and start heading down again. When Cooper relaxes restrictions again in a few weeks (I am guessing around July 4), we could see another uptick and then a gradual decline again. As I mentioned earlier, hospitalization levels have been perplexing to me. Something is going on with hospitalization stats based on case and death data, but I can not figure it out. The reporter I DMed earlier today said they are also struggling to make sense of much of the data we are seeing. The lack of transparency from the state leadership is not helping and this is why the media has gone the lawsuit route. I think they got tired of asking and getting no response.
Mormad touched on the anti-body testing and his comments were echoed by a team doctor for my son's team on Tuesday night. Both have highlighted that there are only a few tests for anti-bodies approved by the FDA (the team doctor said 3 tests) and those are not always accurate. Additionally, while doctors believe there may be some immunity resulting from the anti-bodies, they are not absolutely certain and they do not know how long the immunity would last. This is why my son's team is not planning to conduct anti-body testing for him and his team members. Even if someone on his team has the anti-bodies, there is no guarantee they are protected. My son did get tested for the virus a short time ago today and should get the results tomorrow or Saturday. Based on his two weeks of quarantine, I expect his results to come back negative.
Also, if anybody is curious, he does not have to sign a legal waiver to return to workouts and practice. His return is completely optional and this has been made very clear to him and us over the past two weeks in numerous conversations with the coaches and medical staff. He will be required to sign a pledge to abide by very specific behaviors to return to the campus and the football program and he has no issue doing so. If someone does not agree to the pledge, they will be asked not to return. Participation in sports for his school is conditional on following the rules and guidelines to keep the entire team and staff safe.
Wonder when we are all going to have our N95 masks? Is anyone working on that?
Is there a justifiable reason for the state to not have a mask-required-in-public mandate?
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Unless a person has a religious exemption or a medical reason, they should wear a mask when indoors or in environments where they can not social distance. When someone is outside by themselves, wearing a mask is not necessary.Civilized said:
Is there a justifiable reason for the state to not have a mask-required-in-public mandate?
I was out of town last weekend (Winston-Salem and Charlotte area), I had the opportunity to observe the following behaviors;
1. My wife and I went to a grocery store in Winston-Salem. I would estimate at least 95% of people in the store were wearing a mask. I was very impressed.
2. We had to go to Ikea in Charlotte on Saturday. It took approximately 45 minutes to get into the store, since they were trying to limit the number of people in the store and to space them out as the entered. When entering the store, everyone was asked to wear a mask. My wife and I wore one the entire time we were in the store and did not remove them until we were back at our car. The strange thing I observed was this:
- People wore their masks to enter the store. After entering the store, I would estimate 30-40% removed their masks while walking through the store.
- When lining up at the checkout lines, people put their masks back on. Absolutely ridiculous behavior. Wear masks is more important when inside a store and is important the entire time you are in the store.
3. On two evenings in Winston, my wife and I went to a restaurant to eat. Interestingly, no one in the restaurant (workers or patrons) wore a mask. We wore one to enter and we sat outside when eating to lower our chance of exposure.
I am surprised all businesses are not requiring the wearing of masks. It is their choice and unless you have a valid exemption, you should be required to follow their requirements. You do not have a "right" to not wear a mask if a business requires you to wear it. If someone does not want to wear a mask - fine. You just can't shop in the store. I was surprised when restaurants were allowed to open that masks were not required. My wife and I wear one when going to a restaurant, we remove it to eat and put it back on when we are done eating and ready to leave.
If people are magically thinking the virus is just going to go away, you are kidding yourselves. The only way this will go away is if we can develop herd immunity (not a reasonable strategy) or to have an effective vaccine (more than six months away at best). The best and most effective way to reduce the spread is to wear a mask and social distance. You have to do both at the same time.
Sorry for my rant, but I am ready for the virus to stop spreading. I want my son to have a football season. I want kids to return to school in the Fall. I want the economy to open up more. To do these things, if it requires wearing a mask, I will continue do it and I expect others to do it as well.
Civilized said:
Is there a justifiable reason for the state to not have a mask-required-in-public mandate?
Everyone should be required to wear a mask and those who can't afford one, should have it provided.
This should've happened weeks ago.
Agreed. Surprised more stores don't mandate it to protect their employees. I was just in Best Buy, and was surprised at the # of folks w/o them. Really ticks me off to have a person walk up close without one.King Leary said:Civilized said:
Is there a justifiable reason for the state to not have a mask-required-in-public mandate?
Everyone should be required to wear a mask and those who can't afford one, should have it provided.
This should've happened weeks ago.
It's really a simple ask. Don't smoke indoors. We can all get on board with that. Now, for the time being, put on a freaking mask while indoors or common areas.
**ETA: I'm sure some stores are concerned about the threat of violence and anger if they turn customers away. There have been a few instances of this around the country and with the edge everyone is on already...I'm sure some folks don't want to provoke anyone. So self-policing sounds great....until you're the guy having to tell someone to get out.
https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/antibody-study-shows-more-people-infected-with-coronavirus-in-nc-than-numbers-show/19150903/
10%!!! Doubt much of a random sample though.
We are much closer to turning a corner than I thought if this is true.
https://www.wakehealth.edu/Coronavirus/COVID-19-Community-Research-Partnership/Updates-and-Data
Even still, if we can get over 10% on a detectable AB test (for a TRUE sample), I really think a corner can get turned.
10%!!! Doubt much of a random sample though.
We are much closer to turning a corner than I thought if this is true.
https://www.wakehealth.edu/Coronavirus/COVID-19-Community-Research-Partnership/Updates-and-Data
Even still, if we can get over 10% on a detectable AB test (for a TRUE sample), I really think a corner can get turned.
Currently there is no leadership...
Millions of people were in the streets nationwide protesting & looting 2 weeks ago . Not a single peep from the media & politicians about corona . How stupid do these clowns think we are ?
Bas2020 said:
Millions of people were in the streets nationwide protesting & looting 2 weeks ago . Not a single peep from the media & politicians about corona . How stupid do these clowns think we are ?
Agree...can't wait for Roy to make a state wide mask requirement.... I think the fool is digging his own political grave.
I'm not surprised that funny numbers are coming out of Mecklenberg County whatsoever. In fact, I'd have been surprised otherwise.
For week ending June13, Hospitalizations continue to be driven upwards due to additional non-critical patients. ICU admits stable. Would love to see both these go down. But really don't want to see that ICU number go higher.
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