Sure doesn't feel like there is anything going on in Raleigh today. Just open this **** back up. People are everywhere today.

Wayland said:

---

5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547

400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths

622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.

Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.

Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).

Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.

---

5/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
17,982
NC Deaths**
652
Currently Hospitalized
481
Completed Tests
238,586

407 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

192 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
460 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

128 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)

WRAL is at 661 (+2) and NandO is at 675 deaths

853 positive cases over 7039 new tests. 12.1% positive rate.

High number of cases, high positives today! Kind of balances out yesterday's low positive %. Around 200 of those cases out of congregate facilities.
DHHS falling behind media on numbers of deaths.

My gym in Durham is reopening Monday, despite governor and mayor lockdown. This pleases me.

packgrad said:

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My gym in Durham is reopening Monday, despite governor and mayor lockdown. This pleases me.

---

I have seen a lot of places talking about what their plans are WHEN they open on May 22nd, not IF they open. This whole thing is holding on by a thread and I can see it falling apart if Cooper doesn't give the Phase 2 go ahead.

I can almost see them holding off until the 25th, so it is after the long weekend. But even that I think the push back would be immense.

Wayland said:

---

packgrad said:

---

My gym in Durham is reopening Monday, despite governor and mayor lockdown. This pleases me.

---

I have seen a lot of places talking about what their plans are WHEN they open on May 22nd, not IF they open. This whole thing is holding on by a thread and I can see it falling apart if Cooper doesn't give the Phase 2 go ahead.

I can almost see them holding off until the 25th, so it is after the long weekend. But even that I think the push back would be immense.

---

I REALLY hope more businesses start pushing back, particularly in Durham. Our Mayor extended it indefinitely. I know that's a technicality, as it could end sooner than later, but I don't appreciate the unlimited approach they are taking.

At this point any elected official that says "we are following the science" in support of any continued lockdown should immediately be removed from office.

I hope that Cooper extends it just for he will have to deal with the push back. He deserves that

Good article someone put together with CDC provided graphs. Tells the tale.

https://medium.com/@adam_61330/eight-graphs-from-the-cdcs-most-recent-covidview-that-show-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-e1d849042a5b

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547

400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths

622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.

Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.

Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).

Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.

---

5/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
17,982
NC Deaths**
652
Currently Hospitalized
481
Completed Tests
238,586

407 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

192 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
460 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

128 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)

WRAL is at 661 (+2) and NandO is at 675 deaths

853 positive cases over 7039 new tests. 12.1% positive rate.

High number of cases, high positives today! Kind of balances out yesterday's low positive %. Around 200 of those cases out of congregate facilities.
DHHS falling behind media on numbers of deaths.

---

5/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
18,512
NC Deaths**
659
Currently Hospitalized
493
Completed Tests
248,944

413 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

193 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
466 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

129 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 667 (+2) and NandO is at 684 deaths

530 positive cases over 10358 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

DHHS still lagging.
Despite over 500 new cases today, 5.1% is a decently low rate.

Jordan Lake is closed also. They are opening the campgrounds May 22 I think but only campers no visitors. Beaches and boat ramps are closed.

Stone Mountain in Wilkes County was a disaster yesterday. Park was beyond capacity. There was a fall which required paramedics who had difficulty reaching patient. Paramedic fell during rescue requiring additional help. Another injury during the chaos. Park is now closed. Will reopen with significantly less capacity. People were literally picnicing in the entry roads.

Can't say I am surprised many parks are closed.

JetsonGeorge said:

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Stone Mountain in Wilkes County was a disaster yesterday. Park was beyond capacity. There was a fall which required paramedics who had difficulty reaching patient. Paramedic fell during rescue requiring additional help. Another injury during the chaos. Park is now closed. Will reopen with significantly less capacity. People were literally picnicing in the entry roads.

Can't say I am surprised many parks are closed.

---

Surprised that people get there, see how crowded that sounds, and didn't just leave. I know everyone wants to be back outside, but that seems a bit much.

Probably also shows parks will need more human prevention means -- guards or whatever to turn away traffic -- though as I say it, that sounds like a recipe for disaster too with how on edge some folks are.

I went yesterday afternoon with family to the Springs Greenway hike/bike trails in Ft Mill (property of Springs textile magnets) and I was shocked at how little it was used. There were only a few cars in the lot, and we passed only one walker, and both of us just kind of stepped to the side to allow the other to pass. Sorry to hear that is not the way all of them are going.

Did go fishing on a family member's boat out of a marina at Sullivans Island / Mt Pleasant, SC today...no controls I noticed whatsoever. Too windy for much boat traffic there today, but captain told us yesterday looked like the 4th of July.

Does anyone with children under K-5 age care to share their thoughts on daycare or preschool openings? The one my kid goes to is re-opening and I have mixed feelings. I don't think there is a right or wrong answer. I'm simply looking for other's reasonable opinions.

Ncstatefan01 said:

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Jordan Lake is closed also. They are opening the campgrounds May 22 I think but only campers no visitors. Beaches and boat ramps are closed.

---

Keeping the boat ramps closed makes zero sense to me, especially in light of opening campgrounds with bath houses. The 3 open ramps are insane!

wnosaj83 said:

---

Does anyone with children under K-5 age care to share their thoughts on daycare or preschool openings? The one my kid goes to is re-opening and I have mixed feelings. I don't think there is a right or wrong answer. I'm simply looking for other's reasonable opinions.

---

Wayland and Daviewolf posted this about 10/11 days ago. I find the statistics compelling.

Quote:

---

Wayland said:
So somehow the first time I saw this one. And not that I believe it, but interesting in the correlation vs causation world.

Does MMR Vaccine Confer some level of protection from COVID-19? Take it all with a high degree of skepticism.

https://world.org/COVID-19

---

(Daviewolf83 addedthe following)

I was going to post about this earlier, but did not have time. I am somewhat skeptical, but it would go a long way to explain why younger people are not getting the virus and if they are, their symptoms are mild to non-existent. There has to be a reason for this to happen. If you think about it, most all children for the past 30 years or so have received the MMR vaccine as a standard vaccine you get as an infant. As you get older, the antibodies produced by the vaccine lessen and in some cases, older people never received a measles vaccine. As a result, people under the age of 30 or 40 would be more likely to have some protection and older people would be the ones who are the least protected.

I read through a couple of studies about this last night and it explained the linkage between the spike protein for the coronavirus and the spike protein for the measles virus. The proteins are not identical, but they are 26% similar. The theory is there is enough similarity for the antibodies generated for the measles (it is an antibody that inhibits the ability of the virus to attach to a cell) that it could also be inhibiting the coronavirus's ability to attach to the cell wall. The spike protein on the outside of the coronavirus is what allows the virus to attach to the ACE2 receptor on a cell. Without this attachment, the virus (same with measles) can not gain entry to the cell and begin reproduction.

Not all organs have an ACE2 receptor, but the ones that do are in the nose, mouth, lungs, stomach, small intestines, colon, and a few other places I can not remember. This is why the virus can attack these areas of the body. Blood cells (red and white) do not contain ACE2 receptors and this is why most people do not believe the virus can infect the blood. The issues with blood are coming from the body's immune system reaction to the virus and not an infection of the blood itself.

One of the key reasons the coronavirus is thought to be more infectious is that it's spike protein is much stronger (physically) than other coronavirus' spike proteins. This is why the coronavirus requires a lower viral load to infect someone, compared to other virus. So, anything you can do to disrupt the ability of the virus to attach to the ACE2 receptor, the more likely you are to decrease the virus' infection abilities. A week ago there was a lot of attention being paid to a trial being developed by the University of Louisville researchers. Their approach is similar, but it does not involve a vaccine. Their theory is to inject a drug that causes the production of a short segment enzymes that would bind to the spike protein and render it ineffective in attaching to the ACE2 receptor. In theory, it makes sense and it should be going into trials soon.

Also, there is another trial underway (currently underway with mice) that genetically modifies the measles vaccine to more directly attack the spike protein on the Coronavirus. So far, it has been successful in preventing the virus in mice and they are now planning to move to expanded trials. The key advantage of this approach is manufacturing of the measles vaccine is much simpler, so it could be more easily produced in volume.

NM

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547

400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths

622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.

Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.

Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).

Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.

---

5/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
17,982
NC Deaths**
652
Currently Hospitalized
481
Completed Tests
238,586

407 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

192 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
460 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

128 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)

WRAL is at 661 (+2) and NandO is at 675 deaths

853 positive cases over 7039 new tests. 12.1% positive rate.

High number of cases, high positives today! Kind of balances out yesterday's low positive %. Around 200 of those cases out of congregate facilities.
DHHS falling behind media on numbers of deaths.

---

5/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
18,512
NC Deaths**
659
Currently Hospitalized
493
Completed Tests
248,944

413 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

193 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
466 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

129 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 667 (+2) and NandO is at 684 deaths

530 positive cases over 10358 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

DHHS still lagging.
Despite over 500 new cases today, 5.1% is a decently low rate.

---

5/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
19,023
NC Deaths**
661
Currently Hospitalized
511
Completed Tests
255,755

415 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

193 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
468 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 674 (+2) and NandO is at 691 deaths

511 positive cases over 6811 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.

Would like to see positive cases lower. Would also like to see the hospitalization number come down, but I still feel we need a much better breakdown on what that number is. ICU vs non-ICU. New admits vs recovered cases....but it is what it is.

Also expect a HUGE dump tomorrow as deaths are lagging at a ridiculous pace at the moment.

I feel like Davie said if the positive rate is too low it means you're not testing enough, something like that.

Davie - thoughts on the rates?

wnosaj83 said:

---

Does anyone with children under K-5 age care to share their thoughts on daycare or preschool openings? The one my kid goes to is re-opening and I have mixed feelings. I don't think there is a right or wrong answer. I'm simply looking for other's reasonable opinions.

---

Ours opened today, but we're keeping our 4 year old out at least until the end of May so we can assess the center and everything else.

We dropped our daughter off for the first time today. Not a ton of kids, and I trust the staff to take care of them. I have several friends who never took their kids out of daycare.

"Unfortunately, NCDHHS did not provide their update to the cases by specimen collection data on Saturday, but they did provide it yesterday. As a result, I was able to see the source of these case increases over the weekend. As you can see from the chart below, most of the case increases over the weekend came from samples taken on the previous Wednesday and Thursday. In addition, over 200 cases came from a week prior (5/6-5/9 samples)."

Going to be pretty difficult to do contact tracing for these lagging reports.

Cooper still claiming not sure Phase 2 will be Friday or what it will entail.

Quote:

---

WHAT PHASE TWO WOULD LOOK LIKE
Under Phase One, while people are still asked to stay-at-home when possible, they can leave for more reasons. Businesses that had previously been closed are allowed to open under guidelines that they limited occupancy to 50% of capacity. Cleaning and social distancing standards are suggested and people are encouraged to wear masks. Gatherings are limited to no more than 10 people, with exceptions for funerals or outdoor religious services.
A federal judge blocked limits on indoor religious services Saturday in response to a lawsuit filed against Cooper by some religious leaders who believed their First Amendment rights were being violated.
If the state moves to Phase Two, the plan calls for the stay-at-home order to be lifted. Vulnerable populations, including the elderly or those with compromised immune systems, would be encouraged to remain at home.
Restaurants and bars would be allowed to serve customers with on-site dining but at a reduced capacity. Entertainment venues would be able to reopen but also at a reduced capacity.

The limit on mass gatherings would be further relaxed by allowing more people at events, and public playgrounds could open again.
Restrictions on nursing homes and other congregate care facilities would remain in place.
The state would remain in Phase Two for four to six weeks before a decision would be made about relaxing even more restrictions with a move to Phase Three.
So far, the abrupt closing and slow reopening of businesses in response to the coronavirus pandemic have been done on a statewide level with executive orders. Cooper said Monday that, if the state isn't ready to move into Phase Two on Friday, he and state health officials would consider making decisions on a regional basis.
"We hope that we can move forward into Phase Two," Cooper said. "We know it's important to cushion the blow to the economy. But public health and safety is No. 1. We are going to continue to keep that at the top of the list. We believe that economic prosperity and the health of the people can go hand in hand."

---

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article242811521.html

That is nothing more than we knew weeks ago with regards to general idea of restrictions.

Specifics are needed so people can plan accordingly. If this is really 4 days away and you don't have a REAL good sense of what is coming, I question what is going on. They released DETAILED summer camp guidance. They have other documents, they are choosing not to release them.

There was no reason for Cooper to be at the briefing today, he provided no value.

They've been making this **** up as they go along this whole time. Some is understandable when you're dealing with so many unknowns, but the reopening plans should be very detailed with two months to plan for it, and very little else to do.

Daviewolf83 said:

---

82TxPackFan said:

---

"Unfortunately, NCDHHS did not provide their update to the cases by specimen collection data on Saturday, but they did provide it yesterday. As a result, I was able to see the source of these case increases over the weekend. As you can see from the chart below, most of the case increases over the weekend came from samples taken on the previous Wednesday and Thursday. In addition, over 200 cases came from a week prior (5/6-5/9 samples)."

Going to be pretty difficult to do contact tracing for these lagging reports.

---

It is hard to tell how much of the delay in the reporting is due to testing delays and how much is due to the people who input the data and create the chart. I suspect it is a combination of both causes.

---

Have you heard anything about NC juking the positive case results by adding in antibody test results? There is a guy on twitter who claims NC is one of the states doing this, but I have not seen any actual proof.

I try not to get too far into conspiracy theories, but I do believe some level of over coding is going on.

https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic

https://files.nc.gov/ncdhhs/documents/files/covid-19/Weekly-COVID19-Patients-Presumed-to-be-Recovered.pdf

Patients Presumed to be Recovered = 11,637

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/15/the_costly_failure_to_update_sky-is-falling_predictions_143215.html

Really good article about how the media has loved reporting the sky is falling narrative but has not followed up or reported all the times it's been wrong after the panic headline

82TxPackFan said:

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Going to be pretty difficult to do contact tracing for these lagging reports.

---

So do we know....with millions of folks across the land out of work, have state (or fed) governments been identifying candidates from that pool who would be good at these contact tracing jobs? I mean, surely since that has been discussed for many weeks as a critical need to implement to start up, positions are staffed and ready to go (if the data ever catches up)?