My sister and BIL took the antibody test. His came back positive for antibodies. Hers negative. Not sure how that's possible as when he THINKS he had the virus they were both home bound quarantined. I think they also had their baby tested and she also came back negative.
Coronavirus
2,795,929 Views |
20388 Replies |
Last: 3 hrs ago by Oldsouljer
The antibody test results have all been very similar, in very different parts of the country. Every one I've seen was 10-20% higher number of infections than currently reported. It's a popular retort that the antibody testing is flawed with false positives and so on, but the fact that all of these studies keep showing similar results would seem to point to some fairly consistent level of accuracy with the testing. If you make some admittedly unscientific extrapolations based on test results regarding antibodies, you could come up with the possibility that ten million people could've already been infected. That would put the rate of death under 1 percent. Number of total infected could go even higher if the rate of asymptomatic cases from the small scale prison study were anywhere close to the rate for the general population.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
My other BIL in NY attributed my sister's negative test to a false negative test. He said there have been a lot of those up there. Is that true? I'm trying not to follow the daily stuff so much so have no idea.
Wisconsin Supreme Court just struck down governor's stay at home order. Let's hope others begin to follow suit
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,329
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
Didn't strike it down as I understand it as much as they said he couldn't extend it past the 60 day period that their law allows for emergencies. I said about fifty pages ago that I was interested in seeing how some of this held up in court, and so far most of it isn't. There have already been several cases of people who were arrested for violating orders getting charges thrown out. I think that the people in charge certainly have powers to restrict certain things during emergencies, but those powers can't be open ended and above challenge.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
I guess what that tells us is either:packgrad said:
My sister and BIL took the antibody test. His came back positive for antibodies. Hers negative. Not sure how that's possible as when he THINKS he had the virus they were both home bound quarantined. I think they also had their baby tested and she also came back negative.
Just because you're around someone with Covid doesn't mean you automatically get it
OR
The tests are not always accurate
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,329
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
According to recent studies, transmission of the virus requires close and prolonged contact with someone who has the virus. Close means within 6 feet and prolonged means 5-10 minutes of conversation. Just passing someone in a store is likely not enough to transmit the virus. Also, if you have contact with someone in an outdoors environment, the risk of transmission declines. Transmission risk is higher when indoors. This is why the closing of parks was a bad policy.Pacfanweb said:I guess what that tells us is either:packgrad said:
My sister and BIL took the antibody test. His came back positive for antibodies. Hers negative. Not sure how that's possible as when he THINKS he had the virus they were both home bound quarantined. I think they also had their baby tested and she also came back negative.
Just because you're around someone with Covid doesn't mean you automatically get it
OR
The tests are not always accurate
As far as accuracy of antibody tests, it really depends on the type of test.Some of the tests being done by labs have as high as 95% accuracy, but other tests can have as low as 85% accuracy. As far as antibody tests aare concerned, false negative results are much better than false positive results.
From what i read in the Supreme Court opinion it stated they declared the Order unlawful, invalid and unenforceable. I thought the 60 day thing was something they were working on in Illinois. Either way, everything in Wisconsin can open immediately unless there are local restrictions.
The nature of antibody tests are that they have a high number of false positives. Let' say 100,000 people are tested and in reality 3,000 people have had Covid. Assume the test ill correctly identify 90% of positives and 95% of negatives (These error percentages are rarely the same for positive vs negative).Daviewolf83 said:According to recent studies, transmission of the virus requires close and prolonged contact with someone who has the virus. Close means within 6 feet and prolonged means 5-10 minutes of conversation. Just passing someone in a store is likely not enough to transmit the virus. Also, if you have contact with someone in an outdoors environment, the risk of transmission declines. Transmission risk is higher when indoors. This is why the closing of parks was a bad policy.Pacfanweb said:I guess what that tells us is either:packgrad said:
My sister and BIL took the antibody test. His came back positive for antibodies. Hers negative. Not sure how that's possible as when he THINKS he had the virus they were both home bound quarantined. I think they also had their baby tested and she also came back negative.
Just because you're around someone with Covid doesn't mean you automatically get it
OR
The tests are not always accurate
As far as accuracy of antibody tests, it really depends on the type of test.Some of the tests being done by labs have as high as 95% accuracy, but other tests can have as low as 85% accuracy. As far as antibody tests aare concerned, false negative results are much better than false positive results.
90% * 3,000 = 2,700
5% * 97,000 = 4,850
According to the test, 7,550 had Covid, or 7.55% compared to an actual percentage of 3%, overstating the count by a factor of 250%. To your point, this is hy a false positive error is a much larger problem than false negative.
The scientists running these studies are very aware of all of this, but I don't see it referenced in any of the articles I've read about the antibody tests.
Does this story give anyone on here any pause? Basically a fit 42 year old virus doc (who is regularly on the Today show) flew home to New Orleans wearing a mask and gloves. Still contracted covid and thinks it was through his eyes. Ended up in ICU after a week and is doing better. Also, tested negative four times for covid. The contraction through the eyes and also the negative tests made me stop and think.
https://www.today.com/video/dr-joseph-fair-best-guess-is-i-got-coronavirus-through-my-eyes-83456069750
https://www.today.com/video/dr-joseph-fair-best-guess-is-i-got-coronavirus-through-my-eyes-83456069750
This whole PMIS/Kawasaki thing is driving me nuts. WRAL had a segment on it last night where they gave 10 seconds and asked a local UNC doctor and they said that people shouldn't be worried and then they spent 5 minutes on a family who is super scared due to their immunocompromised child.
It is something that should be taken seriously and medical professionals and parents should be aware of the symptoms and seek medical advice if they notice these things since this is treatable.
It absolutely deserves to be studied and taken seriously, but why are we ignoring the fact that half the 100 cases in NYC are negative for coronavirus or antibodies?
Are we capturing coronavirus caused PMIS and SOMETHING else because we are looking for it?
Is there something else environmental or otherwise that is causing this due to behavior changes?
I am sure the people looking at this are looking at all options but media and politicians are deeming this CAUSED by COVID-19. Isn't it too early to say that? Make people and medical professionals aware, take it VERY seriously, but you don't have to mislead.
Just be honest that it is rare, serious, and being looked at.
It is something that should be taken seriously and medical professionals and parents should be aware of the symptoms and seek medical advice if they notice these things since this is treatable.
It absolutely deserves to be studied and taken seriously, but why are we ignoring the fact that half the 100 cases in NYC are negative for coronavirus or antibodies?
Are we capturing coronavirus caused PMIS and SOMETHING else because we are looking for it?
Is there something else environmental or otherwise that is causing this due to behavior changes?
I am sure the people looking at this are looking at all options but media and politicians are deeming this CAUSED by COVID-19. Isn't it too early to say that? Make people and medical professionals aware, take it VERY seriously, but you don't have to mislead.
Just be honest that it is rare, serious, and being looked at.
5/14/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/13/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/12/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
4/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
9948
NC Deaths**
354
Currently Hospitalized
551 <- New High
Completed Tests
118,440
196 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+9 Not GenPop, +3 GenPop)
124 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
230 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
86 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 366 (+2) and NandO is at 366 deaths
380 positive cases over 5688 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.
Good low positive daily rate. Likely less congregate outbreaks represented.
Spike in hospitalizations. Would like to see a breakdown of ICU/non-ICU here.
DHHS still lagging media on deaths. WRAL and NandO had those totals late last night, again lag is likely due to trying to confirm congregate or not.
149 of the new cases came from congregate facilities.
Wake County is allowing their separate Stay at Home order to expire, and will continue under the state's order.
NC Cases*
10509
NC Deaths**
378
Currently Hospitalized
546
Completed Tests
128,036
212 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
37 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+24 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+19 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)
129 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
249 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)
87 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 386 (+2) and NandO is at 385 deaths
561 positive cases over 9596 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.
NC Cases*
10,923
NC Deaths**
399
Currently Hospitalized
547
Completed Tests
133,832
229 Deaths are now Congregate (+17 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+16 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)
134 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
265 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)
92 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 411 (+2) and NandO is at 414 deaths
414 positive cases over 5796 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.
160 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.
Guilford County is up to 30 deaths and as of Tuesday's report they did not have a single congregate setting death, which is super unusual. Most of the high death count counties have significant congregate death tolls. So what is going on in Guilford County or are they submitting incomplete data? It sticks out as such an outlier, I would love to know what is actually happening there.
NC Cases*
11,509
NC Deaths**
420
Currently Hospitalized
502
Completed Tests
139,475
245 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
35 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+15 Not GenPop, +6 GenPop)
140 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
280 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)
95 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 420 (+2) and NandO is at 419 deaths
586 positive cases over 5642 new tests. 10.4% positive rate.
102 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.
Highest single day of positive cases, although the positive rate is only about 1.5% average. I wish I knew what congregate or workplaces testing was in there.
NC Cases*
11,664
NC Deaths**
422
Currently Hospitalized
475
Completed Tests
143,835
246 Deaths are now Congregate (+1 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+2 Not GenPop, +0 GenPop)
140 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
282 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)
97 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 435 (+2) and NandO is at 432 deaths
155 positive cases over 4360 new tests. 3.6% positive rate.
42 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.
DHHS has caught up to media as of yesterday morning. They are now lagging 8-13 behind again.
NC Cases*
11,848
NC Deaths**
430
Currently Hospitalized
498
Completed Tests
146,439
252 Deaths are now Congregate (+6 since yesterday)
37 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+7 Not GenPop, +1 GenPop)
141 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
289 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)
99 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 450 (+2) and NandO is at 442 deaths <- should hop up shortly from weekend lag.
184 positive cases over 2604 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.
DHHS lagging again. Behind 10 or so deaths, but they usually catch up later in the week with verification.
NC Cases*
12,256
NC Deaths**
452
Currently Hospitalized
534
Completed Tests
151,800
263 Deaths are now Congregate (+11 since yesterday)
39 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+13 Not GenPop, +9 GenPop)
150 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
302 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)
104 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 464 (+2) and NandO is at 460 deaths
408 positive cases over 5361 new tests. 7.6% positive rate.
NC Cases*
12,758
NC Deaths**
477
Currently Hospitalized
516
Completed Tests
164,482
282 Deaths are now Congregate (+19 since yesterday)
41 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+25 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+21 Not GenPop, +4 GenPop)
154 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
323 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+21)
107 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 493 (+2) and NandO is at 485 deaths
502 positive cases over 12682 new tests. 4.0% positive rate.
Every day I post these, I seethe a little when I see the Congregate number, knowing that that total is driving bad policy.
NC Cases*
13,397
NC Deaths**
507
Currently Hospitalized
525
Completed Tests
171,328
303 Deaths are now Congregate (+21 since yesterday)
46 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+26 Not GenPop, +4 GenPop)
158 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
349 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+26)
108 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 522 (+2) and NandO is at 513 deaths
631 positive cases over 6846 new tests. 9.3% positive rate.
Looks like a super catch-up day out of DHHS. New high for new tests in one day. Positive rate a little over average. Deaths I almost don't look at anymore since it is mostly congregate/unknown and so little is in the general population.
I am guessing the spike in cases came from the meat processing outbreak earlier this week, since the data of specimen collection chart shows a HUGE spike a couple days ago.
10 of those new deaths came out of Orange County. I was wondering when they were going to post since the Congregate Report has showed more deaths than the County report for some time now. A LOT of data lag here.... still want DHHS to put out an actual date of death report.
NC Cases*
13,868
NC Deaths**
527
Currently Hospitalized
515
Completed Tests
178,613
323 Deaths are now Congregate (+20 since yesterday)
44 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-2)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+18 Not GenPop, +2 GenPop)
160 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
367 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+18)
110 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 542 (+2) and NandO is at 529 deaths
471 positive cases over 7285 new tests. 6.5% positive rate.
Seriously... 20 new deaths yesterday, 20 reported congregate deaths and 2 deaths moving from unknown to general population. Wonder where attention should be focused? I still question those early deaths that more weren't congregate since Guilford County still shows a big fat 0 in the congregate report despite their high death total.
Around April 18th, NC started reporting Congregate deaths as a separate category.
Try to convince me that up until the time they started reporting until April 17 origination of COVID deaths:
Congregate: 36%
Unknown: 11%
General Public: 53%
BUT SINCE April 18 average reported origination of COVID deaths:
Congregate: 72.7%
Unknown: 7.2%
General Public: 20.1%
NC Cases*
14360
NC Deaths**
544
Currently Hospitalized
513
Completed Tests
186,362
336 Deaths are now Congregate (+13 since yesterday)
47 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+17 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+16 Not GenPop, +1 GenPop)
161 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
383 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)
106 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
WRAL is at 557 (+2) and NandO is at 545 deaths
492 positive cases over 7749 new tests. 6.3% positive rate.
Again notice only 1 confirmed not in congregate setting.
If the site is right, today is the first day of DECLINE in total number of congregate facilities affected. That means facilities are starting to clear cases.
NC Cases*
14764
NC Deaths**
547
Currently Hospitalized
442
Completed Tests
192,135
339 Deaths are now Congregate (+3)
46 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
162 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
385 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)
109 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 562 (+2) and NandO is at 561 deaths
404 positive cases over 5773 new tests. 7.0% positive rate.
Weird reporting today. Hospitalized likely low due to lower hospital reporting percentage. DHHS is becoming like Sweden with this weekend lag (15 behind this morning's media numbers). I guess they don't verify on weekends.
NC Cases*
15045
NC Deaths**
550
Currently Hospitalized
464
Completed Tests
195,865
339 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
47 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
164 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
386 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)
109 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 564 (+2) and NandO is at 567 deaths
282 positive cases over 3730 new tests. 7.6% positive rate.
Still a lot of weekend lag. I guess verification of congregate can't take place on the weekend. Tomorrow should see a good sized bump since media is already 15+ deaths ahead before their daily boost.
NC Cases*
15,346
NC Deaths**
577
Currently Hospitalized
475
Completed Tests
202,244
359 Deaths are now Congregate (+20)
49 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+27 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
169 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
408 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)
110 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 574 (+2) and NandO is at 596 deaths
301 positive cases over 6379 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.
There is the weekend catchup. Numbers about what you would expect. Mostly congregate.
Based on NandO, we are getting another big catchup day tomorrow. They are posting death totals early.
NC Cases*
15,816
NC Deaths**
597
Currently Hospitalized
521
Completed Tests
210,457
371 Deaths are now Congregate (+12)
52 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
174 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
423 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)
117 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7)
WRAL is at 618 (+2) and NandO is at 615 deaths
470 positive cases over 8213 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.
7 new congregate outbreaks today. Two months into this, either lack of effort or better job identifying the outbreaks sooner since outbreaks can be as few as 2 people. Over 100 of the new cases today are Nursing Home or Residential Facility.
NC Cases*
16,507
NC Deaths**
615
Currently Hospitalized
507
Completed Tests
219,268
381 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
181 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
434 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)
121 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)
WRAL is at 629 (+2) and NandO is at 635 deaths
691 positive cases over 8811 new tests. 7.8% positive rate.
Highest single day reported positive. % isn't awful. I am guessing a lot of this is the meat processing outbreaks being reported. (This is reinforced that only 20 of the day over day new cases were from Nursing Homes or Residential Facilities)
DHHS seems to be a full day(+) behind media numbers right now.
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,329
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
We know virus' can be transmitted through the eyes, so not out of the area of possibility. Also, we know being in confined spaces with little air movement increases the transmission levels. Masks are not 100% and neither are the wearing of gloves. Most people wearing gloves are doing it wrong - including the workers in the stores.Ncstatefan01 said:
Does this story give anyone on here any pause? Basically a fit 42 year old virus doc (who is regularly on the Today show) flew home to New Orleans wearing a mask and gloves. Still contracted covid and thinks it was through his eyes. Ended up in ICU after a week and is doing better. Also, tested negative four times for covid. The contraction through the eyes and also the negative tests made me stop and think.
https://www.today.com/video/dr-joseph-fair-best-guess-is-i-got-coronavirus-through-my-eyes-83456069750
Here's the deal on gloves - once the glove comes in contact with any surface, you have to assume it is contaminated. For example, if a cashier in a store is touching packages as they pass them over the pricing scanner, you can assume contaminants are now on the surface of the glove. Once the cashier touches another surface or more packages for another customer, they can transfer the contaminate to the new surface. Unless you are changing gloves after every interaction, the gloves are not protecting the customer. They are only protecting the wearer of the gloves. Additionally, if the cashier touches any portion of their body not covered by a glove or the outside of their mask, they can transfer contaminate to those surfaces.
What do I do? When I leave a store and get to my car, I remove my mask (if I am wearing one - grabbing the straps and not the surface of the mask) and then I clean my hands with hand sanitizer. I do these things before touching my steering wheel or other surfaces in the car. When I open doors, I use either my sleeve covering my hand or the bottom of my shirt. Is it 100% protection? No. Does it give me some percentage of protection? Yes. My philosophy - Everything in life has risks and it is my responsibility to protect myself.
As far testing, we do know they are not 100%. In particular, the Abbott Labs quick test has a very high false negative percentage. So depending on the tests the doctor received, it is possible the tests were in error. Additionally, we know a test is only good for the point in time. The current tests depend on collecting enough viral material in the sample to be enough for testing. If the area sampled does not carry enough of a sample of the virus, it is possible it will be undetected.
Saw where NBC TV doc has the Rona.. said he tested negative 4 times with symptoms..
burnbarn said:
Saw where NBC TV doc has the Rona.. said he tested negative 4 times with symptoms..
So did he eventually test positive or just assuming he has it? Either way, how was this person able to get tested FIVE times? Seems like a relatively useless anecdote.
Maybe he just had something else. There are other diseases than Corona since by his own words he wasn't experiencing 'classic COVID symptoms'.
From the Today article:
So 5 tests all negative, but doctors told him he had COVID for sure... ok then. Good thing we have eliminated all other viral and bacterial illness out there.
From the Today article:
https://www.today.com/health/nbc-news-contributor-dr-joseph-fair-sick-coronavirus-t181487Quote:
After visiting the emergency room, he was admitted to Tulane Medical Center because of a bacterial lung infection, which caused his shortness of breath. He received four tests for COVID-19, all of which were negative, but doctors told him that they had no doubt that's what he had.
So 5 tests all negative, but doctors told him he had COVID for sure... ok then. Good thing we have eliminated all other viral and bacterial illness out there.
Four negative tests and they have "no doubt" that's what he had. Lol. Lunacy.
Was it NBC reporting this, or its brother-in-arms MSNBC?burnbarn said:
Saw where NBC TV doc has the Rona.. said he tested negative 4 times with symptoms..
Like I said, if you can't get hyped for the Carolina game, why are you here?
-Earl Wolff-
-Earl Wolff-
Soooo he doesn't or didn't have COVID. That's my take away. Seems to just want the attention, which you'd expect.
NBCbigeric said:Was it NBC reporting this, or its brother-in-arms MSNBC?burnbarn said:
Saw where NBC TV doc has the Rona.. said he tested negative 4 times with symptoms..
I'm sorry, if you've had five tests and they were all negative, either you don't have the Rona, or all of the testing numbers we have so far are under suspicion. Even if it was a bad batch of tests, a decent scientist would've switched to a different batch after the first three. I don't find that story credible at all.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
He said that he took three different I guess types of tests? The Abbott one, a PCR test, and one other?
Daviewolf83 said:We know virus' can be transmitted through the eyes, so not out of the area of possibility. Also, we know being in confined spaces with little air movement increases the transmission levels. Masks are not 100% and neither are the wearing of gloves. Most people wearing gloves are doing it wrong - including the workers in the stores.Ncstatefan01 said:
Does this story give anyone on here any pause? Basically a fit 42 year old virus doc (who is regularly on the Today show) flew home to New Orleans wearing a mask and gloves. Still contracted covid and thinks it was through his eyes. Ended up in ICU after a week and is doing better. Also, tested negative four times for covid. The contraction through the eyes and also the negative tests made me stop and think.
https://www.today.com/video/dr-joseph-fair-best-guess-is-i-got-coronavirus-through-my-eyes-83456069750
Here's the deal on gloves - once the glove comes in contact with any surface, you have to assume it is contaminated. For example, if a cashier in a store is touching packages as they pass them over the pricing scanner, you can assume contaminants are now on the surface of the glove. Once the cashier touches another surface or more packages for another customer, they can transfer the contaminate to the new surface. Unless you are changing gloves after every interaction, the gloves are not protecting the customer. They are only protecting the wearer of the gloves. Additionally, if the cashier touches any portion of their body not covered by a glove or the outside of their mask, they can transfer contaminate to those surfaces.
What do I do? When I leave a store and get to my car, I remove my mask (if I am wearing one - grabbing the straps and not the surface of the mask) and then I clean my hands with hand sanitizer. I do these things before touching my steering wheel or other surfaces in the car. When I open doors, I use either my sleeve covering my hand or the bottom of my shirt. Is it 100% protection? No. Does it give me some percentage of protection? Yes. My philosophy - Everything in life has risks and it is my responsibility to protect myself.
As far testing, we do know they are not 100%. In particular, the Abbott Labs quick test has a very high false negative percentage. So depending on the tests the doctor received, it is possible the tests were in error. Additionally, we know a test is only good for the point in time. The current tests depend on collecting enough viral material in the sample to be enough for testing. If the area sampled does not carry enough of a sample of the virus, it is possible it will be undetected.
I guess it concerned me more being a doctor I assumed he would be trained in proper mask/glove practices.
All politics aside, I sure did enjoy seeing Burr with that Kerliner mask on this morning. To seem rather than to be.
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,329
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
First, Dr. Joseph Fair is a PhD doctor and not a medical school graduate doctor.Ncstatefan01 said:Daviewolf83 said:We know virus' can be transmitted through the eyes, so not out of the area of possibility. Also, we know being in confined spaces with little air movement increases the transmission levels. Masks are not 100% and neither are the wearing of gloves. Most people wearing gloves are doing it wrong - including the workers in the stores.Ncstatefan01 said:
Does this story give anyone on here any pause? Basically a fit 42 year old virus doc (who is regularly on the Today show) flew home to New Orleans wearing a mask and gloves. Still contracted covid and thinks it was through his eyes. Ended up in ICU after a week and is doing better. Also, tested negative four times for covid. The contraction through the eyes and also the negative tests made me stop and think.
https://www.today.com/video/dr-joseph-fair-best-guess-is-i-got-coronavirus-through-my-eyes-83456069750
Here's the deal on gloves - once the glove comes in contact with any surface, you have to assume it is contaminated. For example, if a cashier in a store is touching packages as they pass them over the pricing scanner, you can assume contaminants are now on the surface of the glove. Once the cashier touches another surface or more packages for another customer, they can transfer the contaminate to the new surface. Unless you are changing gloves after every interaction, the gloves are not protecting the customer. They are only protecting the wearer of the gloves. Additionally, if the cashier touches any portion of their body not covered by a glove or the outside of their mask, they can transfer contaminate to those surfaces.
What do I do? When I leave a store and get to my car, I remove my mask (if I am wearing one - grabbing the straps and not the surface of the mask) and then I clean my hands with hand sanitizer. I do these things before touching my steering wheel or other surfaces in the car. When I open doors, I use either my sleeve covering my hand or the bottom of my shirt. Is it 100% protection? No. Does it give me some percentage of protection? Yes. My philosophy - Everything in life has risks and it is my responsibility to protect myself.
As far testing, we do know they are not 100%. In particular, the Abbott Labs quick test has a very high false negative percentage. So depending on the tests the doctor received, it is possible the tests were in error. Additionally, we know a test is only good for the point in time. The current tests depend on collecting enough viral material in the sample to be enough for testing. If the area sampled does not carry enough of a sample of the virus, it is possible it will be undetected.
I guess it concerned me more being a doctor I assumed he would be trained in proper mask/glove practices.
The masks being worn are not 100% effective in stopping infection. A surgical mask is effective in stopping approximately 80% of particles and an N95 mask effective in capturing 95% of particles. This is why people are told to continue social distancing, even when they wear a mask. The doctor said the plane was very crowded, so I suspect it was difficult to maintain the 6' distance required for proper social distancing. Additionally, we know air circulation is key to helping diminish the viral spread and airplanes would be one of the worst environments from this standpoint.
A mask can help to reduce your chances of becoming infected, but it will not completely eliminate it - even when you wear it correctly. The doctor could have done everything perfectly with regards to the mask and still gotten infected. I recognize a mask, just like a vaccine, is not going to be 100% effective in stopping the virus. In my opinion (based on everything I have read), we are going to have to learn to live with this virus for years, just like we have learned to live with the flu.
5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547
400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)
122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths
622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.
Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.
Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).
Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.
NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547
400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)
122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths
622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.
Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.
Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).
Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.
For those with kids and wondering about summer camps. The state just posted some interim guidance for Phase 2. Interesting to see some of the first insights into what might be allowed in Phase 2.
https://files.nc.gov/covid/documents/guidance/Interim-Guidance-for-Overnight-Camps-PHASE-2.pdf
https://files.nc.gov/covid/documents/guidance/Interim-Guidance-for-Overnight-Camps-PHASE-2.pdf
Girl Scouts had already canceled all summer camp activity for this year, but Boy Scouts just canceled all summer camps this week
And if anyone likes light reading. This is the CDC's weekly report (based on data received at the end of LAST week) on COVID.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/pdf/covidview-05-15-2020.pdf
So based on the CDC ILI report 8.1% of deaths (in week 19) occurred due to Pneumonia or Influenza but 12.8% of deaths (in week 19) were a result of Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID. So that puts the number of COVID deaths WITHOUT contributing pneumonia at 4.7% of all U.S. deaths. That seems to me like slight overcoding, but maybe I am just reading it wrong. Since OBVIOUSLY, the ILI is catching COVID related pneumonia since the amount of influenza death is virtually zero at the moment.
I believe the May 2 date on the second chart is a typo and should be May 9.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/pdf/covidview-05-15-2020.pdf
So based on the CDC ILI report 8.1% of deaths (in week 19) occurred due to Pneumonia or Influenza but 12.8% of deaths (in week 19) were a result of Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID. So that puts the number of COVID deaths WITHOUT contributing pneumonia at 4.7% of all U.S. deaths. That seems to me like slight overcoding, but maybe I am just reading it wrong. Since OBVIOUSLY, the ILI is catching COVID related pneumonia since the amount of influenza death is virtually zero at the moment.
I believe the May 2 date on the second chart is a typo and should be May 9.
Colorado changing the way the are coding COVID deaths after assigning a COVID death to a guy who died of alcohol poisoning. Now have both with COVID and from COVID deaths.
https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data
https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,329
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
This is the best way to report them - "with" Covid versus "from" Covid. It lowered deaths by 25% for Colorado. I also saw tonight that NY has been under-reporting nursing home deaths. It appears it was done to make percentage of nursing home deaths lower.Wayland said:
Colorado changing the way the are coding COVID deaths after assigning a COVID death to a guy who died of alcohol poisoning. Now have both with COVID and from COVID deaths.
https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data
I wondered that about NY. Just be honest with the numbers, and let's make informed decisions.Daviewolf83 said:This is the best way to report them - "with" Covid versus "from" Covid. It lowered deaths by 25% for Colorado. I also saw tonight that NY has been under-reporting nursing home deaths. It appears it was done to make percentage of nursing home deaths lower.Wayland said:
Colorado changing the way the are coding COVID deaths after assigning a COVID death to a guy who died of alcohol poisoning. Now have both with COVID and from COVID deaths.
https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data
Today I'm enjoying being inundated with Facebook posts from friends telling me that if I don't wear a mask, I'm an awful person. Also loving the fact that the great majority of people are too stupid or too lock step with what the media outlets are telling them to understand that the more you increase testing, the more cases there are going to be, and that in and of itself is not proof at all that states shouldn't open up. Way more people have or have had this disease than anyone knows. The number of positive tests shouldn't be tied at all to the reopening, and in fact is proof in my mind that being closed in the first place hasn't done much of anything to slow the spread. And I know this is all and we've talked about as nauseum in here, I'm just venting here to avoid telling relatives and friends that they are idiots.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
Featured Stories
See All
OUR FINAL TAKE: NC State vs. East Carolina
by James Henderson
12:15
8h ago
519
IPS IN 5: Three Keys For NC State vs. East Carolina
by James Henderson
CRITICAL QUESTIONS: East Carolina
by James Henderson
11:05
1d ago
452
ELITE+: Transfer OL Teague Andersen Talks With 1Pack Members
by James Henderson
4:26
1d ago
795
Justin Terrell: "They Had A Great Plan For Me"
by Samuel Locklear