Coronavirus

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Packchem91
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12:00p, 5/12/20
In an effort to continue to get info to determine if can keep our planned family vacation to Yellowstone this summer, I looked up the Billings Gazette. Interesting article that as they enter their 3rd week of limited openings, they are actually seeing a drop in cases.

https://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana-coronavirus-cases-decline-amid-retail-reopenings/article_1583b95b-b8aa-5874-9809-d1739b72698b.html#tracking-source=home-top-story

MT is still enacting the 14-day self quarantine for out of state visitors....which will significantly impact travel to YNP if not lifted when the park opens. Seems like a huge financial hit for a state seeing less than 10 cases a week (though I do get the argument that a bunch of folks flying in from NYC might change that).
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packgrad
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1:13p, 5/12/20

U.S. Field Hospitals Stand Down, Most Without Treating Any COVID-19 Patients

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851712311/u-s-field-hospitals-stand-down-most-without-treating-any-covid-19-patients

Amazing federal response that was fortunately/unfortunately not necessary. Lots of tax dollars spent for naught.

Edit... article is a few days old. Sorry if already posted.
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statefan91
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In reply to packgrad • 1:43p, 5/12/20
packgrad said:

U.S. Field Hospitals Stand Down, Most Without Treating Any COVID-19 Patients

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851712311/u-s-field-hospitals-stand-down-most-without-treating-any-covid-19-patients

Amazing federal response that was fortunately/unfortunately not necessary. Lots of tax dollars spent for naught.

Edit... article is a few days old. Sorry if already posted.
I don't think it had been posted, thanks for doing so.

I feel like the field hospitals may have been useful if we had literally done nothing but continue on as normal. Maybe then you would've hit the numbers they were anticipating. Since we shut down EVERYTHING basically, I'm sure that helped to slow transmission but now we wonder if we ever would've really needed them.

Will be interesting to see as things begin to open back up if we'll need somewhere in the middle.
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Wayland
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2:17p, 5/12/20
Updated Mecklenburg County data. I guess good thing they didn't build that $70million field hospital.

Would love to see Wake provide some of this.

https://www.mecknc.gov/news/Pages/Mecklenburg-County-COVID-19-Data-for-May-10.aspx




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redsteel33
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3:05p, 5/12/20
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Daviewolf83
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3:26p, 5/12/20
Staff
I know we hear a lot about Sweden and their approach, so I thought I would pull the latest info with regards to daily cases and daily deaths. I found it interesting that they appear of have peaked around 4/25 and have been trending down since this date. They have done so by enacting guidelines on groups (no more than 50 people), reduced capacity in restaurants, and encouraging people to practice healthy practices such as hand washing and avoiding unnecessary trips out. They have not closed parks or stores and students have continued to attend classes. Just as the studies are indicating, young children do not seem to be significant vectors for viral transmission.

I spent some time earlier today posting a rebuttal on Twitter to a NY Times writer who was trying to take Senator Rand Paul to task to day for the suggestion that it would be okay to send kids back to school. Senator Paul pointed out that kids are generally extremely low risk of dying and he made some comparison to Sweden in relation to other countries in Europe. The writer posted his attempt at a forecast of harm if children are forced to return to school and one of his blue-check followers weight in that Sweden was a bad example (compared to other Nordic countries) and they have not flattened the curve. Here are the curves for Daily New Cases and Daily Deaths, with 7-day moving average trend lines (7 days, since Sweden's data has a lot of lag in reporting). You can be the judge if they have peaked or not (I say they have).

Sweden Daily New Cases:



Sweden Daily Deaths:

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statefan91
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In reply to Daviewolf83 • 3:31p, 5/12/20
I had to get off twitter when all of this started. Too much doomsday everywhere I looked from a lot of dumb people.
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Wayland
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3:46p, 5/12/20
I think I saw that take on Twitter and it was so outrageous I couldn't even read it.

To follow on that chart. I think they may have peaked a little sooner than that even, and it may appear later due to their early lack of testing. Here is the Swedish chart for deaths on actual day of death coded by lag time of reporting. Looks like the green line is mirrored here in the dotted line.



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Pacfanweb
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In reply to statefan91 • 3:52p, 5/12/20
statefan91 said:
packgrad said:

U.S. Field Hospitals Stand Down, Most Without Treating Any COVID-19 Patients

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851712311/u-s-field-hospitals-stand-down-most-without-treating-any-covid-19-patients

Amazing federal response that was fortunately/unfortunately not necessary. Lots of tax dollars spent for naught.

Edit... article is a few days old. Sorry if already posted.
I don't think it had been posted, thanks for doing so.

I feel like the field hospitals may have been useful if we had literally done nothing but continue on as normal. Maybe then you would've hit the numbers they were anticipating. Since we shut down EVERYTHING basically, I'm sure that helped to slow transmission but now we wonder if we ever would've really needed them.

Will be interesting to see as things begin to open back up if we'll need somewhere in the middle.
If we had done nothing, I don't think things would have gone much different. The virus was already here, and enough already were carrying it that it was going to spread anyway. With maybe a few exceptions, I don't think the quarantine has done much at all.
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statefan91
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In reply to Pacfanweb • 4:08p, 5/12/20
Fair enough, hard to say without much testing. You've obviously seen positive rates go down with the ramp up of testing, but sort of chicken and the egg on if it's just testing a broader group of people now that testing capacity is getting better, or if truly less people as a percentage have it.
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Packchem91
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4:28p, 5/12/20
Los Angeles County to extend its stay-at-home orders for 3 more months. Wow.
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wilmwolf
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In reply to statefan91 • 4:33p, 5/12/20
I'm almost ready to give up all social media at this point. Twitter is a cesspool of people actually rooting for the worst case scenario. I've got friends on Facebook, who I thought were fairly intelligent, attacking anyone who tries to offer a factual, non apocalyptic take on what is going on. I've tried to keep anything I post about the virus on the humor side of things, but I'm fighting the urge to go scorched Earth and then delete the app from my phone so I don't have to read the responses. The weird thing is, most people I talk to in person have a similar, pragmatic take on things like I do, but social media is the opposite.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
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StateFan2001's favorite poster.
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statefan91
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In reply to wilmwolf • 4:49p, 5/12/20
Yep - deleted facebook about a year ago, and twitter I just deleted the app and links but still have my account so I can use it when I want, but definitely dont' check it like I used to.

I used it mostly for sports anyways, and all of that is obviously out the window for now.
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Packchem91
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In reply to wilmwolf • 5:52p, 5/12/20
wilmwolf80 said:
I'm almost ready to give up all social media at this point. Twitter is a cesspool of people actually rooting for the worst case scenario. I've got friends on Facebook, who I thought were fairly intelligent, attacking anyone who tries to offer a factual, non apocalyptic take on what is going on. I've tried to keep anything I post about the virus on the humor side of things, but I'm fighting the urge to go scorched Earth and then delete the app from my phone so I don't have to read the responses. The weird thing is, most people I talk to in person have a similar, pragmatic take on things like I do, but social media is the opposite.
This is very true. The attack mentality is really sad, and unfortunately, leads to policy impacts, because some leaders don't want to stand up to the vitriol attacks they would / do receive on SM.
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barnburner
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6:44p, 5/12/20
At Neuse Correctional 90% of positives are a symptomatic. Wow
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Wayland
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In reply to barnburner • 6:57p, 5/12/20
burnbarn said:
At Neuse Correctional 90% of positives are a symptomatic. Wow
I thought I saw somewhere that most of their cases are considered resolved. If that is the case, that is a huge positive.
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Wayland
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7:14p, 5/12/20
IHME now predicts 4400 deaths for NC through August 1. Not sure about that.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/north-carolina
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RunsWithWolves26
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In reply to Wayland • 7:20p, 5/12/20
Wayland said:
IHME now predicts 4400 deaths for NC through August 1. Not sure about that.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/north-carolina


Hasn't even thought about it looked at that thing in a couple weeks. I just don't believe anything an expert for model says anymore, sadly.
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PackBacker07
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7:26p, 5/12/20
I plan on giving blood at the drive at PNC Arena in a couple weeks. Supposedly they're conducting free COVID-19 antibody tests for those who give. I wonder if this will become a trend and if this data will be used by the state in some way?
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Wilson
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8:40p, 5/12/20
My wife and I were tested for antibodies last week. Our daughter in law works for a dentist and he had his employees tested. They had to do at least 100 tests so she asked us if we wanted to be tested. She tested positive for the antibodies. I tested negative. She was sick as a dog last November and so we're a lot of people in our community.
Everyone was being tested for flu and kept turning up negative for the flu. I go back to the cruise ship that had it and some people never got it. I hope I'm in that category. All of this has way more questions than answers.
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Packchem91
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9:36p, 5/12/20
Two more gripes on how this is reported.

1) CBS Evening news....Norah O'Donnell kicks off with their "Breaking News"...says "as of this evening, 82k Americans HAVE BEEN KILLED by the Coronavirus". They have murders where they'd never say the victim was killed. These people died b/c many had bad hearts, bad livers, bad kidneys, bad blood pressure, bad lungs, and covid was the final straw. It just seems disingenuous (and inflammatory to start a mainstream national news with "82K americans killed....."

2) To wit #1....father of a family friend lives in NY, outside the city, and recently died. He was 70+, drank and smoked routinely, obese, bad kidneys, and had been in heart failure for the last several years, with several trips to the ER to correct that. Started having heart attack symptoms / shortness of breath, they called the medics....died on the way to the hospital. Medics listed it as "Death by Covid" on his paperwork, by directive.
Per Norah, this man was killed by Covid.
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PackBacker07
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In reply to Packchem91 • 9:55p, 5/12/20
Packchem91 said:
Two more gripes on how this is reported.

1) CBS Evening news....Norah O'Donnell kicks off with their "Breaking News"...says "as of this evening, 82k Americans HAVE BEEN KILLED by the Coronavirus". They have murders where they'd never say the victim was killed. These people died b/c many had bad hearts, bad livers, bad kidneys, bad blood pressure, bad lungs, and covid was the final straw. It just seems disingenuous (and inflammatory to start a mainstream national news with "82K americans killed....."

2) To wit #1....father of a family friend lives in NY, outside the city, and recently died. He was 70+, drank and smoked routinely, obese, bad kidneys, and had been in heart failure for the last several years, with several trips to the ER to correct that. Started having heart attack symptoms / shortness of breath, they called the medics....died on the way to the hospital. Medics listed it as "Death by Covid" on his paperwork, by directive.
Per Norah, this man was killed by Covid.


Not trying to disaude or say it's right, but sadly this is how a lot of deaths are recorded, not just in the current COVID climate.
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1985 NCSU Grad
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9:59p, 5/12/20
So many reports, models that have been wrong while knowledge gained has been good. The USS Theodore Roosevelt has provided great and confusing insight for the research teams. Media has created fear and fuels it with 24 hour coverage...
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to Wayland • 11:19p, 5/12/20
Staff
Wayland said:
IHME now predicts 4400 deaths for NC through August 1. Not sure about that.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/north-carolina
They have not gotten anything right with their models. I still track the model, but it has no credibility. Considering the majority of deaths are coming from nursing homes, I am not sure how they arrive at the 4,000+ number. If does end up to be that high, we will never get out of lockdown. I guess they are not putting any faith in test-and-trace.
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packgrad
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6:55a, 5/13/20
My wife has a distant cousin that has been in a nursing home, and is now in hospice and not expected to last much longer. She has diabetes, heart failure, a staff infection, and several other ailments that I can't recall at the moment. She was recently tested for coronavirus and it came back positive. She will be listed as a coronavirus death. Hospice was before the coronavirus test fwiw.
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FlossyDFlynt
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In reply to wilmwolf • 7:20a, 5/13/20
wilmwolf80 said:
I'm almost ready to give up all social media at this point. Twitter is a cesspool of people actually rooting for the worst case scenario. I've got friends on Facebook, who I thought were fairly intelligent, attacking anyone who tries to offer a factual, non apocalyptic take on what is going on. I've tried to keep anything I post about the virus on the humor side of things, but I'm fighting the urge to go scorched Earth and then delete the app from my phone so I don't have to read the responses. The weird thing is, most people I talk to in person have a similar, pragmatic take on things like I do, but social media is the opposite.
Twitter without sports is the damn worst. Before all this happened, I felt like I had curated a really good mix of sports/news. Now, its just yelling into the void without sports. If I didnt still find it somewhat useful, I would have gotten rid of it a while ago.

Deleted Facebook a couple of years ago and havent looked back. That company is not your friend, and this is coming from someone who used to be a shareholder.
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TopsailWolf
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7:59a, 5/13/20
We have reached the point where fear is driving decisions and not science. Hard to argue with the decisions of the past 8-10 weeks on the knowledge we had at hand, but at this point there is nothing to support continuing to keep the economy stunted for another 12 weeks because of arbitrary timelines by non health professionals. The local and state leadership has been amazingly poor throughout this entire process, but especially now where the decisions they're making will directly impact economic burdens for the next decade. It shouldn't surprise me, yet here I am dumbfounded.
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Pacfanweb
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In reply to PackBacker07 • 10:27a, 5/13/20
PackBacker07 said:
Packchem91 said:
Two more gripes on how this is reported.

1) CBS Evening news....Norah O'Donnell kicks off with their "Breaking News"...says "as of this evening, 82k Americans HAVE BEEN KILLED by the Coronavirus". They have murders where they'd never say the victim was killed. These people died b/c many had bad hearts, bad livers, bad kidneys, bad blood pressure, bad lungs, and covid was the final straw. It just seems disingenuous (and inflammatory to start a mainstream national news with "82K americans killed....."

2) To wit #1....father of a family friend lives in NY, outside the city, and recently died. He was 70+, drank and smoked routinely, obese, bad kidneys, and had been in heart failure for the last several years, with several trips to the ER to correct that. Started having heart attack symptoms / shortness of breath, they called the medics....died on the way to the hospital. Medics listed it as "Death by Covid" on his paperwork, by directive.
Per Norah, this man was killed by Covid.


Not trying to disaude or say it's right, but sadly this is how a lot of deaths are recorded, not just in the current COVID climate.
True, but now everything is being called "Covid". Sometimes with no actual evidence, other than symptoms.

That confirms what I suspected. Prior to this, they would have said "flu like symptoms" and it would have been attributed to the flu. Now, damn near nobody is dying from the flu anymore....or so they say.
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statefan91
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In reply to TopsailWolf • 10:28a, 5/13/20
TopsailWolf said:
We have reached the point where fear is driving decisions and not science. Hard to argue with the decisions of the past 8-10 weeks on the knowledge we had at hand, but at this point there is nothing to support continuing to keep the economy stunted for another 12 weeks because of arbitrary timelines by non health professionals. The local and state leadership has been amazingly poor throughout this entire process, but especially now where the decisions they're making will directly impact economic burdens for the next decade. It shouldn't surprise me, yet here I am dumbfounded.
I feel like we're going to see the State do what they can to open up by 7/1 if possible. I am hoping that there isn't any big lagging data that prevents them from moving to Phase 2 on 5/22, and then another 4 weeks to see how things are going to open up in July.

I have a beach trip to Ocean Isle planned for just after 4th of July. Not sure if I want us to move into Phase 3 until after the 4th of July hoilday but that's just me being selfish. I understand a lot of businesses need the holiday especially to make their money.
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Wayland
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In reply to statefan91 • 10:32a, 5/13/20
statefan91 said:
TopsailWolf said:
We have reached the point where fear is driving decisions and not science. Hard to argue with the decisions of the past 8-10 weeks on the knowledge we had at hand, but at this point there is nothing to support continuing to keep the economy stunted for another 12 weeks because of arbitrary timelines by non health professionals. The local and state leadership has been amazingly poor throughout this entire process, but especially now where the decisions they're making will directly impact economic burdens for the next decade. It shouldn't surprise me, yet here I am dumbfounded.
I feel like we're going to see the State do what they can to open up by 7/1 if possible. I am hoping that there isn't any big lagging data that prevents them from moving to Phase 2 on 5/22, and then another 4 weeks to see how things are going to open up in July.

I have a beach trip to Ocean Isle planned for just after 4th of July. Not sure if I want us to move into Phase 3 until after the 4th of July hoilday but that's just me being selfish. I understand a lot of businesses need the holiday especially to make their money.
Just need to keep the food processing and congregate outbreaks manageable. Long term care deaths are what is driving the death totals here. Since they have been reported separately by NC, congregate deaths are about 75% of deaths. (I question the source accuracy from some of the early deaths and contend the congregate deaths were under reported and missed in the first few weeks)

I know it leans on the dark side of all this, but after the vast majority of the inmates were infected and then recovered from COVID-19, the safest place in NC might be Neuse Correctional.
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Wayland
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In reply to Wayland • 10:48a, 5/13/20
Wayland said:
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4/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
9948
NC Deaths**
354
Currently Hospitalized
551 <- New High
Completed Tests
118,440

196 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+9 Not GenPop, +3 GenPop)

124 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
230 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

86 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 366 (+2) and NandO is at 366 deaths

380 positive cases over 5688 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.

Good low positive daily rate. Likely less congregate outbreaks represented.
Spike in hospitalizations. Would like to see a breakdown of ICU/non-ICU here.
DHHS still lagging media on deaths. WRAL and NandO had those totals late last night, again lag is likely due to trying to confirm congregate or not.

149 of the new cases came from congregate facilities.

Wake County is allowing their separate Stay at Home order to expire, and will continue under the state's order.
4/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
10509
NC Deaths**
378
Currently Hospitalized
546
Completed Tests
128,036

212 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
37 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+24 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+19 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)

129 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
249 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)

87 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 386 (+2) and NandO is at 385 deaths

561 positive cases over 9596 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.
5/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
10,923
NC Deaths**
399
Currently Hospitalized
547
Completed Tests
133,832

229 Deaths are now Congregate (+17 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+16 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)

134 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
265 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

92 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 411 (+2) and NandO is at 414 deaths

414 positive cases over 5796 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.


160 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.

Guilford County is up to 30 deaths and as of Tuesday's report they did not have a single congregate setting death, which is super unusual. Most of the high death count counties have significant congregate death tolls. So what is going on in Guilford County or are they submitting incomplete data? It sticks out as such an outlier, I would love to know what is actually happening there.
5/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
11,509
NC Deaths**
420
Currently Hospitalized
502
Completed Tests
139,475

245 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
35 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+15 Not GenPop, +6 GenPop)

140 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
280 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

95 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)

WRAL is at 420 (+2) and NandO is at 419 deaths

586 positive cases over 5642 new tests. 10.4% positive rate.


102 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.

Highest single day of positive cases, although the positive rate is only about 1.5% average. I wish I knew what congregate or workplaces testing was in there.
5/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
11,664
NC Deaths**
422
Currently Hospitalized
475
Completed Tests
143,835

246 Deaths are now Congregate (+1 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+2 Not GenPop, +0 GenPop)

140 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
282 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

97 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)

WRAL is at 435 (+2) and NandO is at 432 deaths

155 positive cases over 4360 new tests. 3.6% positive rate.


42 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.

DHHS has caught up to media as of yesterday morning. They are now lagging 8-13 behind again.
5/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
11,848
NC Deaths**
430
Currently Hospitalized
498
Completed Tests
146,439

252 Deaths are now Congregate (+6 since yesterday)
37 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+7 Not GenPop, +1 GenPop)

141 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
289 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)

99 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)

WRAL is at 450 (+2) and NandO is at 442 deaths <- should hop up shortly from weekend lag.

184 positive cases over 2604 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.

DHHS lagging again. Behind 10 or so deaths, but they usually catch up later in the week with verification.
5/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
12,256
NC Deaths**
452
Currently Hospitalized
534
Completed Tests
151,800

263 Deaths are now Congregate (+11 since yesterday)
39 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+13 Not GenPop, +9 GenPop)

150 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
302 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

104 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 464 (+2) and NandO is at 460 deaths

408 positive cases over 5361 new tests. 7.6% positive rate.
5/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
12,758
NC Deaths**
477
Currently Hospitalized
516
Completed Tests
164,482

282 Deaths are now Congregate (+19 since yesterday)
41 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+25 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+21 Not GenPop, +4 GenPop)

154 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
323 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+21)

107 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)

WRAL is at 493 (+2) and NandO is at 485 deaths

502 positive cases over 12682 new tests. 4.0% positive rate.

Every day I post these, I seethe a little when I see the Congregate number, knowing that that total is driving bad policy.
5/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
13,397
NC Deaths**
507
Currently Hospitalized
525
Completed Tests
171,328

303 Deaths are now Congregate (+21 since yesterday)
46 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+26 Not GenPop, +4 GenPop)

158 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
349 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+26)

108 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 522 (+2) and NandO is at 513 deaths

631 positive cases over 6846 new tests. 9.3% positive rate.

Looks like a super catch-up day out of DHHS. New high for new tests in one day. Positive rate a little over average. Deaths I almost don't look at anymore since it is mostly congregate/unknown and so little is in the general population.

I am guessing the spike in cases came from the meat processing outbreak earlier this week, since the data of specimen collection chart shows a HUGE spike a couple days ago.

10 of those new deaths came out of Orange County. I was wondering when they were going to post since the Congregate Report has showed more deaths than the County report for some time now. A LOT of data lag here.... still want DHHS to put out an actual date of death report.
5/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
13,868
NC Deaths**
527
Currently Hospitalized
515
Completed Tests
178,613

323 Deaths are now Congregate (+20 since yesterday)
44 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-2)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+18 Not GenPop, +2 GenPop)

160 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
367 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+18)

110 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)

WRAL is at 542 (+2) and NandO is at 529 deaths

471 positive cases over 7285 new tests. 6.5% positive rate.

Seriously... 20 new deaths yesterday, 20 reported congregate deaths and 2 deaths moving from unknown to general population. Wonder where attention should be focused? I still question those early deaths that more weren't congregate since Guilford County still shows a big fat 0 in the congregate report despite their high death total.

Around April 18th, NC started reporting Congregate deaths as a separate category.

Try to convince me that up until the time they started reporting until April 17 origination of COVID deaths:
Congregate: 36%
Unknown: 11%
General Public: 53%

BUT SINCE April 18 average reported origination of COVID deaths:
Congregate: 72.7%
Unknown: 7.2%
General Public: 20.1%
5/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
14360
NC Deaths**
544
Currently Hospitalized
513
Completed Tests
186,362

336 Deaths are now Congregate (+13 since yesterday)
47 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+17 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+16 Not GenPop, +1 GenPop)

161 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
383 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

106 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)

WRAL is at 557 (+2) and NandO is at 545 deaths

492 positive cases over 7749 new tests. 6.3% positive rate.

Again notice only 1 confirmed not in congregate setting.

If the site is right, today is the first day of DECLINE in total number of congregate facilities affected. That means facilities are starting to clear cases.
5/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
14764
NC Deaths**
547
Currently Hospitalized
442
Completed Tests
192,135

339 Deaths are now Congregate (+3)
46 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

162 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
385 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

109 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)

WRAL is at 562 (+2) and NandO is at 561 deaths

404 positive cases over 5773 new tests. 7.0% positive rate.

Weird reporting today. Hospitalized likely low due to lower hospital reporting percentage. DHHS is becoming like Sweden with this weekend lag (15 behind this morning's media numbers). I guess they don't verify on weekends.
5/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
15045
NC Deaths**
550
Currently Hospitalized
464
Completed Tests
195,865

339 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
47 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

164 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
386 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

109 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)

WRAL is at 564 (+2) and NandO is at 567 deaths

282 positive cases over 3730 new tests. 7.6% positive rate.

Still a lot of weekend lag. I guess verification of congregate can't take place on the weekend. Tomorrow should see a good sized bump since media is already 15+ deaths ahead before their daily boost.
5/12/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
15,346
NC Deaths**
577
Currently Hospitalized
475
Completed Tests
202,244

359 Deaths are now Congregate (+20)
49 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+27 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

169 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
408 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

110 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 574 (+2) and NandO is at 596 deaths

301 positive cases over 6379 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.

There is the weekend catchup. Numbers about what you would expect. Mostly congregate.

Based on NandO, we are getting another big catchup day tomorrow. They are posting death totals early.
5/13/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
15,816
NC Deaths**
597
Currently Hospitalized
521
Completed Tests
210,457

371 Deaths are now Congregate (+12)
52 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

174 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
423 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

117 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7)

WRAL is at 618 (+2) and NandO is at 615 deaths

470 positive cases over 8213 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.

7 new congregate outbreaks today. Two months into this, either lack of effort or better job identifying the outbreaks sooner since outbreaks can be as few as 2 people. Over 100 of the new cases today are Nursing Home or Residential Facility.
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ncsualum05
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11:32a, 5/13/20
Thanks for all this tracking Wayland. It appears in NC where we have really failed is our nursing homes and living centers. Why did we spend so much time shutting things down and not targeting and protecting our vulnerable? Huge failure on NC's part. Seems like the testing has really ramped up and the % positive is low as well which is good. They also started tracking a presumed recovered number. As of May 11th it is 9,115.

You can also see that 8,131 cases out of the total 15,816 counted are general population. So pretty much half of the total cases are in congregate facilities and our recovered is now 57% of active cases.
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PackMom
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11:35a, 5/13/20
A friend of mine said they had their HVAC guy out recently and he told them that he's had a lot of orders to put UV light systems in the ductwork of various offices/plants/public buildings.
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Wayland
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3:03p, 5/13/20
Preliminary antibody study in Indiana had either 2.8% of population positive for COVID or having antibodies (about 13x their actual tested case rate identified). Varied from 0% to 4.9% based on area of state.

Based on their death toll they are calling an IFR of 0.58% in Indiana.

44.8% of those that tested positive in Indiana for active virus had no symptoms. 12 times more likely to be positive for COVID if living with someone else who was positive.

Will be interesting as more data comes in.
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to Wayland • 3:35p, 5/13/20
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Wayland said:
Preliminary antibody study in Indiana had either 2.8% of population positive for COVID or having antibodies (about 13x their actual tested case rate identified). Varied from 0% to 4.9% based on area of state.

Based on their death toll they are calling an IFR of 0.58% in Indiana.

44.8% of those that tested positive in Indiana for active virus had no symptoms. 12 times more likely to be positive for COVID if living with someone else who was positive.

Will be interesting as more data comes in.
Based on the limited results from the anti-body test in NC, I am not surprised with what Indiana is finding. I believe NC will likely see 2.2% positive across the state, but some of the larger metro areas such as Charlotte and Raleigh and Durham could approach 4%. The lead researcher for the NC study seemed surprised the number was so low in the Triad area. He did say they are currently expanding the testing into Charlotte, Raleigh, Greenville, and Wilmington in the coming weeks. When they do, we will definitely get a better picture as to how much of NC was affected.

I do believe the low percentage of people infected is contributing to the plateauing of cases and deaths in NC. Unlike NY, NJ, and some other hard hit states, NC has not hit infection levels high enough to bend the curve significantly. Our curves are trending down slightly (deaths and cases), but it will be a very slow process to see significant reductions. As such, I suspect we will see background daily cases remain fairly constant in the 400 person range and deaths among the general population in the 4/day range for a few more months. With the steady-state in cases, I expect the nursing homes to continue to be hot-spots and to continue to be the source of the large numbers of deaths.
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