Coronavirus

2,605,017 Views | 20306 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Werewolf
Wayland
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Great proactive effort! Hope testing keeps being utilized proactively as well as reactively.

Re UPMC: I am surprised it took them so long. I have a friend who was privy to their financials weeks ago and they were losing money and had relatively low covid numbers. I hope they can strike a good balance.
Packchem91
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wilmwolf80 said:

Another article supporting what I've felt almost since the start of this.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/umpc-argues-covid-19-not-as-deadly-as-feared-says-its-hospitals-will-shift-back-to-normal.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
Look for CNN dot com to look up every piece of dirt possible to discredit this guy, and then post another 5 articles of how it's going to come back even worse in the fall.
Steve Williams
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wilmwolf80 said:

Another article supporting what I've felt almost since the start of this.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/umpc-argues-covid-19-not-as-deadly-as-feared-says-its-hospitals-will-shift-back-to-normal.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
I think we're going to see more and more of this headed forward. It's interesting, guy I follow on Twitter (Alex Borenson) has emails from reporters who have stated that they have been shot down by news directors or fellow reporters whenever they want to report anything other than a doomsday scenario. For me, that is very, very disturbing.
ncsupack1
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Steve Williams said:

wilmwolf80 said:

Another article supporting what I've felt almost since the start of this.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/umpc-argues-covid-19-not-as-deadly-as-feared-says-its-hospitals-will-shift-back-to-normal.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
I think we're going to see more and more of this headed forward. It's interesting, guy I follow on Twitter (Alex Borenson) has emails from reporters who have stated that they have been shot down by news directors or fellow reporters whenever they want to report anything other than a doomsday scenario. For me, that is very, very disturbing.


Not surprised at all. I have found myself reading and watching less of the news of late. Everything is the end of the world.
packgrad
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Wayland said:

statefan91 said:

Why have they waited to go into Phase 1 anyway? I'm not really sure I understand that.
I think it was to pretend to give a 14 day window. They announced the phases right at 14ish days out from the expiration of the extended order.

I think it was all optics to make it appear that a 14 day trend window was analysed before moving to Phase 1 per federal guidance.

Some people are really scared, and this gives them the illusion that proper rules are being followed.

Cohen has to say daily in the briefings that a spike or drop of 50 to 100 hospitalizations is not significant with regards to hospital capacity. She has also really been bringing up the hospital capacity not being an issue lately.

Zip code map is up.

https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/covid19/covid-19-nc-case-count#zip-code-map


Unfortunately it appears their numbers are incorrect. 27705 zip code in Durham has more deaths than the entire county shows.
Wayland
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

4/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
9948
NC Deaths**
354
Currently Hospitalized
551 <- New High
Completed Tests
118,440

196 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+9 Not GenPop, +3 GenPop)

124 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
230 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

86 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 366 (+2) and NandO is at 366 deaths

380 positive cases over 5688 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.

Good low positive daily rate. Likely less congregate outbreaks represented.
Spike in hospitalizations. Would like to see a breakdown of ICU/non-ICU here.
DHHS still lagging media on deaths. WRAL and NandO had those totals late last night, again lag is likely due to trying to confirm congregate or not.

149 of the new cases came from congregate facilities.

Wake County is allowing their separate Stay at Home order to expire, and will continue under the state's order.
4/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
10509
NC Deaths**
378
Currently Hospitalized
546
Completed Tests
128,036

212 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
37 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+24 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+19 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)

129 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
249 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)

87 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 386 (+2) and NandO is at 385 deaths

561 positive cases over 9596 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.

5/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
10,923
NC Deaths**
399
Currently Hospitalized
547
Completed Tests
133,832

229 Deaths are now Congregate (+17 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+16 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)

134 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
265 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

92 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 411 (+2) and NandO is at 414 deaths

414 positive cases over 5796 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.


160 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.

Guilford County is up to 30 deaths and as of Tuesday's report they did not have a single congregate setting death, which is super unusual. Most of the high death count counties have significant congregate death tolls. So what is going on in Guilford County or are they submitting incomplete data? It sticks out as such an outlier, I would love to know what is actually happening there.

5/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
11,509
NC Deaths**
420
Currently Hospitalized
502
Completed Tests
139,475

245 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
35 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+15 Not GenPop, +6 GenPop)

140 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
280 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

95 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)

WRAL is at 420 (+2) and NandO is at 419 deaths

586 positive cases over 5642 new tests. 10.4% positive rate.


102 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.

Highest single day of positive cases, although the positive rate is only about 1.5% average. I wish I knew what congregate or workplaces testing was in there.
5/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
11,664
NC Deaths**
422
Currently Hospitalized
475
Completed Tests
143,835

246 Deaths are now Congregate (+1 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+2 Not GenPop, +0 GenPop)

140 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
282 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

97 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)

WRAL is at 435 (+2) and NandO is at 432 deaths

155 positive cases over 4360 new tests. 3.6% positive rate.


42 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.

DHHS has caught up to media as of yesterday morning. They are now lagging 8-13 behind again.
Wayland
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COVID in France in December? Will be interesting if true.



Professor Yves Cohen affirms that a patient had Covid-19 in France from December 27

Google translate of article:

This head of resuscitation at several hospitals in Ile-de-France resumed PCR tests carried out on several patients suffering from pneumonia between December and January last. A man, now in good health, has been identified as carrying the Covid-19.
What if the coronavirus has been present on French territory for longer than expected? Invited this Sunday on the set of BFMTV, Professor Yves Cohen, head of the resuscitation service of Avicenne hospitals in Bobigny, and Jean Verdier in Bondy, in Seine-Saint-Denis, ensures that the first traces of the disease could in fact go back to at least last December 27. Nearly a month before the detection of the first officially registered cases in France, at the end of January.
Quote:

"We resumed all the PCRs tested in patients with pneumonia in December and January whose results were negative. The PCRs are not made for Covid-19, but for influenza and other coronaviruses. And out of the 24 patients, we had a positive case at Covid-19, on December 27, when he was hospitalized with us, at Jean Verdier ", he assured.
The asymptomatic patient's wife?
After ensuring that the tests had been carried out several times "to eliminate the risks", Yves Cohen explained that he had carried out an investigation in order to trace this first contamination.
Quote:

"We called the patient. He was sick 15 days and he infected his two children, but not his wife, who works in a supermarket, at the fish stall. We wondered if there were not related to fish of Chinese origin, but it only works on French products, "he said.
Then, the professor later assured that he had found a potential lead.
Quote:

"Then we learn by chance that she (the patient's wife, editor's note) works alongside sushi sales or people of Chinese origin work. One wonders if she has not been reached asymptomatically. cannot go any further, but I think it is up to another institution to carry out the investigations. ", he adds.
Patient 0?
This discovery could also inform the search for patient 0, the first contaminated with Covid-19, on French territory.
Quote:

"He may be the zero patient, but perhaps there are others in other regions. All the negative PCRs for pneumonia must be retested. The virus was probably circulating," he said. it again.
At present, the patient in good health, as well as his children, who had also been infected.
"He was amazed, he did not understand how he had been infected. We put the puzzle together, he had not made any trips, the only contact is that made by his wife" concludes Yves Cohen.
statefan91
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Able to translate at all?
Daviewolf83
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Steve Williams said:

wilmwolf80 said:

Another article supporting what I've felt almost since the start of this.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/umpc-argues-covid-19-not-as-deadly-as-feared-says-its-hospitals-will-shift-back-to-normal.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
I think we're going to see more and more of this headed forward. It's interesting, guy I follow on Twitter (Alex Borenson) has emails from reporters who have stated that they have been shot down by news directors or fellow reporters whenever they want to report anything other than a doomsday scenario. For me, that is very, very disturbing.
I actually had a conversation with a very good friend of mine who is a news anchor in a very large metro area (much larger than Raleigh - closer to Charlotte in size) about this last week. He agreed the coverage nationally has not been balanced and he said it is a struggle to present news in a favorable way. He has followed my posts on Facebook (I did not include my last one here) and he agrees my numbers and analysis make more sense, but they are not supposed to present them in this way.

By the way, my latest analysis was picked up the former president of a large conservative public policy group and was sent to all his Facebook followers earlier this week.
cowboypack02
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Daviewolf83 said:

Steve Williams said:

wilmwolf80 said:

Another article supporting what I've felt almost since the start of this.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/umpc-argues-covid-19-not-as-deadly-as-feared-says-its-hospitals-will-shift-back-to-normal.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
I think we're going to see more and more of this headed forward. It's interesting, guy I follow on Twitter (Alex Borenson) has emails from reporters who have stated that they have been shot down by news directors or fellow reporters whenever they want to report anything other than a doomsday scenario. For me, that is very, very disturbing.
I actually had a conversation with a very good friend of mine who is a news anchor in a very large metro area (much larger than Raleigh - closer to Charlotte in size) about this last week. He agreed the coverage nationally has not been balanced and he said it is a struggle to present news in a favorable way. He has followed my posts on Facebook (I did not include my last one here) and he agrees my numbers and analysis make more sense, but they are not supposed to present them in this way.

By the way, my latest analysis was picked up the former president of a large conservative public policy group and was sent to all his Facebook followers earlier this week.


Davie.....

Don't take this the wrong way but when the media, who has access to all kinds of professionals with says that your analysis that you are giving us on a random message board makes more sense than what he can get and present on the actual news it's a sad day for news media and journalism overall.

In saying that your have been killing it and keep us the great work. Post like yours are the reason that I come here for my coronavirus news instead of the actual news organizations that should be reporting on it
Daviewolf83
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Staff
cowboypack02 said:

Daviewolf83 said:

Steve Williams said:

wilmwolf80 said:

Another article supporting what I've felt almost since the start of this.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/umpc-argues-covid-19-not-as-deadly-as-feared-says-its-hospitals-will-shift-back-to-normal.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
I think we're going to see more and more of this headed forward. It's interesting, guy I follow on Twitter (Alex Borenson) has emails from reporters who have stated that they have been shot down by news directors or fellow reporters whenever they want to report anything other than a doomsday scenario. For me, that is very, very disturbing.
I actually had a conversation with a very good friend of mine who is a news anchor in a very large metro area (much larger than Raleigh - closer to Charlotte in size) about this last week. He agreed the coverage nationally has not been balanced and he said it is a struggle to present news in a favorable way. He has followed my posts on Facebook (I did not include my last one here) and he agrees my numbers and analysis make more sense, but they are not supposed to present them in this way.

By the way, my latest analysis was picked up the former president of a large conservative public policy group and was sent to all his Facebook followers earlier this week.


Davie.....

Don't take this the wrong way but when the media, who has access to all kinds of professionals with says that your analysis that you are giving us on a random message board makes more sense than what he can get and present on the actual news it's a sad day for news media and journalism overall.

In saying that your have been killing it and keep us the great work. Post like yours are the reason that I come here for my coronavirus news instead of the actual news organizations that should be reporting on it
As an example, just watch the maddening WRAL newscasts. They present the graphs from NCDHHS, but they have no idea what they really mean and what is causing the daily changes. If they do, they are not reporting it accurately and are purposely being misleading. I have stopped watching WRAL's newscasts until it is time for the weather, since their coronavirus coverage appears to purposefully be trying to strike fear in people about reopening. I find myself talking back to the television too often :-) I have been impressed with Brett Jensen in Charlotte. His tweets are very reasonable and he really seems to be trying to get into the basis for the numbers.

When we reopen, cases will increase. The question will be:
1. What is happening with % of tests that are positive? If flat or declining, we should not worry.
2. Are the increases due to increased tests being run? If they are, we should not worry.

The media and leaders need to be telling people cases will increase when we reopen and they need to say now what they will do to address the increases. Shutting the economy back down should be a last resort move. I am afraid they will believe they can shutdown again and use it as an early tool. I predict if they do this too early, people will ignore it and will resist.
Packchem91
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Daviewolf83 said:

cowboypack02 said:

Daviewolf83 said:

Steve Williams said:

wilmwolf80 said:

Another article supporting what I've felt almost since the start of this.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/umpc-argues-covid-19-not-as-deadly-as-feared-says-its-hospitals-will-shift-back-to-normal.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
I think we're going to see more and more of this headed forward. It's interesting, guy I follow on Twitter (Alex Borenson) has emails from reporters who have stated that they have been shot down by news directors or fellow reporters whenever they want to report anything other than a doomsday scenario. For me, that is very, very disturbing.
I actually had a conversation with a very good friend of mine who is a news anchor in a very large metro area (much larger than Raleigh - closer to Charlotte in size) about this last week. He agreed the coverage nationally has not been balanced and he said it is a struggle to present news in a favorable way. He has followed my posts on Facebook (I did not include my last one here) and he agrees my numbers and analysis make more sense, but they are not supposed to present them in this way.

By the way, my latest analysis was picked up the former president of a large conservative public policy group and was sent to all his Facebook followers earlier this week.


Davie.....

Don't take this the wrong way but when the media, who has access to all kinds of professionals with says that your analysis that you are giving us on a random message board makes more sense than what he can get and present on the actual news it's a sad day for news media and journalism overall.

In saying that your have been killing it and keep us the great work. Post like yours are the reason that I come here for my coronavirus news instead of the actual news organizations that should be reporting on it
As an example, just watch the maddening WRAL newscasts. They present the graphs from NCDHHS, but they have no idea what they really mean and what is causing the daily changes. If they do, they are not reporting it accurately and are purposely being misleading. I have stopped watching WRAL's newscasts until it is time for the weather, since their coronavirus coverage appears to purposefully be trying to strike fear in people about reopening. I find myself talking back to the television too often :-) I have been impressed with Brett Jensen in Charlotte. His tweets are very reasonable and he really seems to be trying to get into the basis for the numbers.

When we reopen, cases will increase. The question will be:
1. What is happening with % of tests that are positive? If flat or declining, we should not worry.
2. Are the increases due to increased tests being run? If they are, we should not worry.

The media and leaders need to be telling people cases will increase when we reopen and they need to say now what they will do to address the increases. Shutting the economy back down should be a last resort move. I am afraid they will believe they can shutdown again and use it as an early tool. I predict if they do this too early, people will ignore it and will resist.
Agreed -- context matters. Graphs or numbers w/o context are useless....well, except to convey a message which may be misleading.

Also agree that our leaders should absolutely be letting folks know that as the market reopens, claims of "case counts increasing" is not necessarily bad news...that additional details are necessary to know whether it is significant or not.

Wayland
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WRAL's chart readers are the worst, they have no idea how to bring any context to the data. If you go back and look at when there are high spikes,in positive cases or rate, there is almost always a direct correlation to an outbreak (be it prison, food processing, or nursing home).

When there are things that don't fit the data trends, 'why?' should be asked.

WRAL did their best to blow by the low numbers today, which I am sure is a bit of an anomaly (even though it was across almost 5000 tests) in favor of the spikes last week.

They are also unable to comprehend scale of numbers. Be it hospitalizations or daily cases, NC's numbers are so low that minor increases of less than 100 are made out by media to be MASSIVE data shifts.

They aren't. New York's variance in cases between yesterday and today (+679) is greater than the highest ACTUAL positive case number for any day for North Carolina.

Scale and scope are lost on a lot of the media. I could do a better job explaining the charts from my couch if they just gave me a quick call at the start of the 5pm news.

Here is WRAL on today's case number

"152 new cases were reported today. While that's still 152 people affect by the virus, it's much lower than yesterday's number: 385 people testing positive for the virus. This is the lowest number of new cases reported in the spam of day since April 5, but dips in the data are not uncommon."

One QA that ***** Two the actual lowest case report was April 15, per DHHS and both WRAL and NandO's graphs. Three, it is a little uncommon since the number has only dipped that low one other time since the beginning of April.

So while it is ok to acknowledge the outlier, the same treatment wasn't given to the late week 'panic numbers' after increased testing.

I mean WRAL is so bad that on their 'Death Per Day' chart, they list 51 deaths on May 1st because they didn't bother to update it for a few days. So instead of going back and figuring out when the deaths were reported they just lump it all on one day. They then use this graph to directly report what the 7 day rolling average is. While it may still be 'close' since it is an average, as this day trends near the end of the 7 day instead of the middle it is going to make the numbers wonky.
wilmwolf
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Currently seeing a rash of posts on my social media timelines of "if we reopen too soon, people will die!". I just don't know how to make people understand that people are going to continue to die from this virus for the rest of time. Even if/when a vaccine and cure are available, people will die. No amount of staying home will stop people from dying of Covid19, and that was never the intention in doing so.
ncsupack1
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wilmwolf80 said:

Currently seeing a rash of posts on my social media timelines of "if we reopen too soon, people will die!". I just don't know how to make people understand that people are going to continue to die from this virus for the rest of time. Even if/when a vaccine and cure are available, people will die. No amount of staying home will stop people from dying of Covid19, and that was never the intention in doing so.


Thank you.
Everpack
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wilmwolf80 said:

Currently seeing a rash of posts on my social media timelines of "if we reopen too soon, people will die!". I just don't know how to make people understand that people are going to continue to die from this virus for the rest of time. Even if/when a vaccine and cure are available, people will die. No amount of staying home will stop people from dying of Covid19, and that was never the intention in doing so.


You can't. I've tried. I've been nice, understanding, forthcoming and provided data, but I just get the "why haven't the experts called you" responses.
Wayland
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wilmwolf80 said:

Currently seeing a rash of posts on my social media timelines of "if we reopen too soon, people will die!". I just don't know how to make people understand that people are going to continue to die from this virus for the rest of time. Even if/when a vaccine and cure are available, people will die. No amount of staying home will stop people from dying of Covid19, and that was never the intention in doing so.
That is a solid maybe and it is hard for them to overcome the fear that has been force fed to them.

I struggle with this since I don't know the perfect right answer, or if there is one. These are the same people that will accuse you of wanting to kill grandma and every life matters. But what about the missed cancer diagnosis, the heart attack that didn't get proper medical attention, the domestic abuse, or even the suicide due to the stress and mental illness from all this. All these things still need attention too in this. Now that we SHOULD understand the true risk of the virus.

People crap on Sweden when compared to other Nordic countries, but those countries all have significantly smaller populations and (for the most part) are less dense populations. Why does no one crap on Belgium that has the roughly the same population of Sweden but over twice as many deaths per million DESPITE being locked down since early March? Belgium has a lot higher population density so it makes sense, but there are so many variables.

And why can't we examine Sweden and acknowledge they didn't do everything right even though many points of their strategy are sound? They failed miserably at protecting nursing homes (something like outbreaks in 75% of facilities) and also did very little testing early on. But DESPITE those big mistakes, they have not had any kind of crazy uncontrolled outbreak. Yes, their death toll (population adjusted) is higher than some lower population Nordic countries, but it is also lower than Belgium, Netherlands, France, UK, Spain, Italy who have all been locked down for over 6 weeks.

There is a whole lot of the COVID story that isn't being told. How differing populations around the world and even around the U.S. are being affected. There are so many variables other than lock downs that factor in.

And yes, it sucks that a largely asymptomatic and highly contagious virus got out. It sucks a lot that people will die, but none of this happens in a vacuum and we have to deal with the larger consequences both economic and health related that are coming out of this.

It is the same hypocrisy I struggled with since day 1. That all deaths have meaning but a COVID death means more.
82TxPackFan
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Haven't watched WRAL in a while. Zero value in their opinions & their news when everything is sensationalized & used to create as much panic as possible.
Andrew4343
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So where do people get their news? Looking for as unbiased as possible. Local and national
metcalfmafia
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wilmwolf80 said:

Currently seeing a rash of posts on my social media timelines of "if we reopen too soon, people will die!". I just don't know how to make people understand that people are going to continue to die from this virus for the rest of time. Even if/when a vaccine and cure are available, people will die. No amount of staying home will stop people from dying of Covid19, and that was never the intention in doing so.


You're not woke enough.
metcalfmafia
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Anyone know if/when pools might open?
Wayland
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metcalfmafia said:

Anyone know if/when pools might open?
That 'should' be phase 2, as early as May 22nd. (Again, I don't know with how many people).

That being said, I have heard that TAC (who have apparently contacted the powers that be) is going to be running 10 swimmers to a pool once Phase 1 begins.

There should be no reason that pools shouldn't be generally available for lap swimming come next week but the rules in the phases are so generic and there are so many possible exceptions.

Outdoor transmission is so not an issue.
Daviewolf83
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Everpack said:

wilmwolf80 said:

Currently seeing a rash of posts on my social media timelines of "if we reopen too soon, people will die!". I just don't know how to make people understand that people are going to continue to die from this virus for the rest of time. Even if/when a vaccine and cure are available, people will die. No amount of staying home will stop people from dying of Covid19, and that was never the intention in doing so.


You can't. I've tried. I've been nice, understanding, forthcoming and provided data, but I just get the "why haven't the experts called you" responses.
Just tell them the experts probably know the same thing and do not need to bother. Also, point out the people reporting in the media are not experts, so they should not be believed.

I guarantee I have completed more class hours in statistics and have spent more time as part of my job analyzing numbers and using statistics to make business decisions than anyone currently reporting on the numbers in the media.
packgrad
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Wayland said:

metcalfmafia said:

Anyone know if/when pools might open?
That 'should' be phase 2, as early as May 22nd. (Again, I don't know with how many people).

That being said, I have heard that TAC (who have apparently contacted the powers that be) is going to be running 10 swimmers to a pool once Phase 1 begins.

There should be no reason that pools shouldn't be generally available for lap swimming come next week but the rules in the phases are so generic and there are so many possible exceptions.

Outdoor transmission is so not an issue.


They better open. Are there any cases tied to outdoor transmission? How is swimming in bleach water dangerous as pertains to the virus? I will be cancelling memberships if things don't start opening soon. I want to support local businesses in my gym and community pool, but at some point if they don't start saying "Damn the man", I'll be damning them.

Wayland
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packgrad said:

Wayland said:

metcalfmafia said:

Anyone know if/when pools might open?
That 'should' be phase 2, as early as May 22nd. (Again, I don't know with how many people).

That being said, I have heard that TAC (who have apparently contacted the powers that be) is going to be running 10 swimmers to a pool once Phase 1 begins.

There should be no reason that pools shouldn't be generally available for lap swimming come next week but the rules in the phases are so generic and there are so many possible exceptions.

Outdoor transmission is so not an issue.


They better open. Are there any cases tied to outdoor transmission? How is swimming in bleach water dangerous as pertains to the virus? I will be cancelling memberships if things don't start opening soon. I want to support local businesses in my gym and community pool, but at some point if they don't start saying "Damn the man", I'll be damning them.


I talked to our pool manager today. Our pool has passed Wake County inspection and for all intents and purposes is good to go, pending state guidance. The county inspector led the manager to believe that we would be fine to open in Phase 2 per what the inspector was hearing from the state.

I still don't know why (as a private member owned pool) we shouldn't be allowed to be open for lap swimming with 1 person per lane and 1 staff/lifeguard. Since we wouldn't exceed the 10 person limit, would be staffed, but even then are a private facility.
packgrad
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That's good news. I'm in Durham and have zero confidence our mayor. Just a couple weeks ago he wouldn't even let people ride in a golf cart together. Including parents with their children. I'm so freaking burnt out on this virus.
cowboypack02
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Daviewolf83 said:

cowboypack02 said:

Daviewolf83 said:

Steve Williams said:

wilmwolf80 said:

Another article supporting what I've felt almost since the start of this.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/umpc-argues-covid-19-not-as-deadly-as-feared-says-its-hospitals-will-shift-back-to-normal.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
I think we're going to see more and more of this headed forward. It's interesting, guy I follow on Twitter (Alex Borenson) has emails from reporters who have stated that they have been shot down by news directors or fellow reporters whenever they want to report anything other than a doomsday scenario. For me, that is very, very disturbing.
I actually had a conversation with a very good friend of mine who is a news anchor in a very large metro area (much larger than Raleigh - closer to Charlotte in size) about this last week. He agreed the coverage nationally has not been balanced and he said it is a struggle to present news in a favorable way. He has followed my posts on Facebook (I did not include my last one here) and he agrees my numbers and analysis make more sense, but they are not supposed to present them in this way.

By the way, my latest analysis was picked up the former president of a large conservative public policy group and was sent to all his Facebook followers earlier this week.


Davie.....

Don't take this the wrong way but when the media, who has access to all kinds of professionals with says that your analysis that you are giving us on a random message board makes more sense than what he can get and present on the actual news it's a sad day for news media and journalism overall.

In saying that your have been killing it and keep us the great work. Post like yours are the reason that I come here for my coronavirus news instead of the actual news organizations that should be reporting on it
As an example, just watch the maddening WRAL newscasts. They present the graphs from NCDHHS, but they have no idea what they really mean and what is causing the daily changes. If they do, they are not reporting it accurately and are purposely being misleading. I have stopped watching WRAL's newscasts until it is time for the weather, since their coronavirus coverage appears to purposefully be trying to strike fear in people about reopening. I find myself talking back to the television too often :-) I have been impressed with Brett Jensen in Charlotte. His tweets are very reasonable and he really seems to be trying to get into the basis for the numbers.

When we reopen, cases will increase. The question will be:
1. What is happening with % of tests that are positive? If flat or declining, we should not worry.
2. Are the increases due to increased tests being run? If they are, we should not worry.

The media and leaders need to be telling people cases will increase when we reopen and they need to say now what they will do to address the increases. Shutting the economy back down should be a last resort move. I am afraid they will believe they can shutdown again and use it as an early tool. I predict if they do this too early, people will ignore it and will resist.


People are already starting to ignore what the governor has put in place here. In out small downtown two businesses have already gone out of business. There are two more that have decided that they are going to open on Monday, regardless of the rules in place in the State.

That's what happens when all of these projections that were originally made were so far off and our government officials that have been making proclamations about what she be open and when don't adjust
Steve Williams
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Staff
Has anyone broken down general population deaths in NC and what % of NC counties have no deaths in general population? I'm guessing there has to be many.
Wayland
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Steve Williams said:

Has anyone broken down general population deaths in NC and what % of NC counties have no deaths in general population? I'm guessing there has to be many.


I believe it is about 40 counties without a death and 60 with.
Steve Williams
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Wayland said:

Steve Williams said:

Has anyone broken down general population deaths in NC and what % of NC counties have no deaths in general population? I'm guessing there has to be many.


I believe it is about 40 counties without a death and 60 with.
Thanks
wilmwolf
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wilmwolf80 said:

Continuing to extend the stay at home orders without offering any other long term solutions to getting people back to work is punting on 4th and a foot. It's the safe thing to do, and I don't mean that from a public safety standpoint. We are just kicking the can down the road at this point, and unless there starts to be meaningful discussions relatively soon about how it's going to end, people are going to stop obeying the orders. Leadership needs to step up, and I don't care if they have a D or an R by their name. Maybe we should use the military to support the hospitals and contain flare ups while the rest of the country goes back to work. I don't know the answer, but another few weeks and I fear things are going to start getting messy.


It took a few weeks longer than I thought it would when I posted this, but we're starting to see more and more push back against these orders. I saw today where a tattoo shop owner in Apex was arrested for opening up in defiance of the order. I fear that eventually the defiance could stop being of a peaceful nature. We should already be nearing the end of the first phase to reopen, not just nearing starting it.
Wayland
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Minimum of 3 weeks until Phase 2. People are going to be chomping at the bit especially since so little changes between now and Phase 1.

Unless they loosen additional restrictions.
Daviewolf83
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wilmwolf80 said:

wilmwolf80 said:

Continuing to extend the stay at home orders without offering any other long term solutions to getting people back to work is punting on 4th and a foot. It's the safe thing to do, and I don't mean that from a public safety standpoint. We are just kicking the can down the road at this point, and unless there starts to be meaningful discussions relatively soon about how it's going to end, people are going to stop obeying the orders. Leadership needs to step up, and I don't care if they have a D or an R by their name. Maybe we should use the military to support the hospitals and contain flare ups while the rest of the country goes back to work. I don't know the answer, but another few weeks and I fear things are going to start getting messy.


It took a few weeks longer than I thought it would when I posted this, but we're starting to see more and more push back against these orders. I saw today where a tattoo shop owner in Apex was arrested for opening up in defiance of the order. I fear that eventually the defiance could stop being of a peaceful nature. We should already be nearing the end of the first phase to reopen, not just nearing starting it.
A Karen on Twitter said they hoped the shop owner got Coronavirus and died. I find this kind of sentiment absolutely hideous.
Sierrawolf
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For those of you who are better with charts, etc. than I am...are we seeing flattening of the curve? I know that dail cases are increasing with more testing, but I'm assuming that we might still be seeing percentages decrease? Just trying to see if we're still on track to proceed with Phase 1 & Phase 2.
Wayland
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Despite the spike in positive cases late last week, the % positive on tests was below average. All of this with increased testing.

Hospitalizations have remained relatively steady. There was a jump mid last week into the 500s and then a dip back into the 400s over the weekend (probably lower reporting). Then again, that mid-week spike last week was either a reporting change or tied to some sort of specific outbreak. As one of the few locales that we have seen actual hospital data for (Mecklenburg County) has been trending down.

Cooper and Cohen have set the expectation that if we remain on our current trends we should be set for Phase 1 at the end of this week. I haven't seen anything too unusual that would concern me that we are not on track.

The only oddity was a spike in COVID like illness (CLI) in last weeks surveillance report but that in itself is not a large enough indicator. It could easily have been tied to congregate outbreaks, since it wasn't universal across all regions of the state.

Congregate outbreaks are really what makes NC's numbers look bad. If those can be limited, or at least PROPERLY EXPLAINED when data is provided. We should move forward.
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