Coronavirus

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wilmwolf
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2:15p, 4/17/20
We've been shutdown a month. They literally have nothing else to do but attack this problem. They are just now talking about a surge in testing? What the hell else have they been doing? I bet the agenda looks like this:

Tuesday
8:30 AM- Begin preparations for daily briefing.




2:00- Give daily briefing.




5:00- Go home
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Wayland
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In reply to wilmwolf • 2:17p, 4/17/20
wilmwolf80 said:
We've been shutdown a month. They literally have nothing else to do but attack this problem. They are just now talking about a surge in testing? What the hell else have they been doing? I bet the agenda looks like this:

Tuesday
8:30 AM- Begin preparations for daily briefing.




2:00- Give daily briefing.




5:00- Go home
The amazing part is the amount of copy and paste there is in the presentations. 90% of the briefing is the same from the day before.
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Tatted_Umpire
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In reply to RunsWithWolves26 • 2:19p, 4/17/20
RunsWithWolves26 said:
Wayland said:
Listening to the Governor now talking about just NOW putting together a testing surge task force. I know it is what we need to be doing, but I can't help be frustrated and bang my head against the wall because he is finally getting around to what we should have been doing weeks ago and exactly what I was ranting about then.

He still seems so lost in this.


He is lost in everything. Still blows my mind he actually got elected. The state of NC has been and will continue to be in a mess with him. I was truly hoping there were smarter people around him but I'm beginning to realize that isn't true
the state govt are used to ruining this state, remember the HB2 fiasco couple years ago that cost the state millions in revenue...
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Daviewolf83
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2:29p, 4/17/20
Staff
So Governor Cooper just today announced plans for a testing task force. We have known for weeks that testing was the key to ending the lock-downs and they just realized they need to get serious. I feel like we are all prisoners of government bureaucracy and ineptness.
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Wayland
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In reply to Daviewolf83 • 2:35p, 4/17/20
Daviewolf83 said:
So Governor Cooper just today announced plans for a testing task force. We have known for weeks that testing was the key to ending the lock-downs and they just realized they need to get serious. I feel like we are all prisoners of government bureaucracy and ineptness.
Listen closely to every answer they give to a question. It is a circle without anything concrete. He quoted that NC study again talking about how overwhelmed the healthcare system is... so lost. Cohen when asked about antibody testing danced in a circle and provided the longest non-answer of the day. I am almost in tears with frustration.

When asked about nursing homes, why deaths and totals aren't being provided, Cohen falls back on 'privacy and striking the balance'. It is a bull**** answer. She claims that they released nursing home deaths today, but didn't. We aren't asking for the names and addresses of everyone who is sick. But the number of ill and deaths out of nursing homes ISN'T protected.
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to Wayland • 2:49p, 4/17/20
Staff
Wayland said:
Daviewolf83 said:
So Governor Cooper just today announced plans for a testing task force. We have known for weeks that testing was the key to ending the lock-downs and they just realized they need to get serious. I feel like we are all prisoners of government bureaucracy and ineptness.
Listen closely to every answer they give to a question. It is a circle without anything concrete. He quoted that NC study again talking about how overwhelmed the healthcare system is... so lost. Cohen when asked about antibody testing danced in a circle and provided the longest non-answer of the day. I am almost in tears with frustration.

When asked about nursing homes, why deaths and totals aren't being provided, Cohen falls back on 'privacy and striking the balance'. It is a bull**** answer. She claims that they released nursing home deaths today, but didn't.
I have not been impressed with Cohen either through this whole ordeal. I have been told she has been good about certain things, but clearly crisis management and thinking outside the box are not things she can handle. The news media are nothing but parrots when it comes to this governor and his administration. They need to be asking the tough questions and demanding accountability and action and they are not doing so. They should be spending the weekend on testing plans, but I doubt they will do so.

The can not seriously believe people are going to stay in lock-down for another month, waiting on a increased testing plan to be implemented. It will not happen. They have a couple of weeks to start showing real improvement or people are going to start leaving their lock-downs and doing what they want to. The government will not be able to arrest or cite the number of people involved in civil disobedience.
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PackBacker07
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3:24p, 4/17/20
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wilmwolf
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3:45p, 4/17/20
I don't do the news, are any of the mainstream outlets discussing the antibody results we were talking about earlier? Would seem to me to be a very big deal, and it's important that as states ramp up testing, they do so using the antibody test. Simply testing more people with the normal test only tells you if they are sick right then, which is useful, but not nearly as useful as knowing the full scope of the spread through antibody testing.
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RunsWithWolves26
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In reply to Daviewolf83 • 3:58p, 4/17/20
Daviewolf83 said:
So Governor Cooper just today announced plans for a testing task force. We have known for weeks that testing was the key to ending the lock-downs and they just realized they need to get serious. I feel like we are all prisoners of government bureaucracy and ineptness.


He is to busy ****ing over the farmers to care about anything else. Screw that moron and all his government buddies.
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Colonel Armstrong
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4:05p, 4/17/20
Listened to the Governors news briefing today. One incredibly interesting tidbit:

The state secured testing for Neuse River Correctional inmates. ALL 700 inmates were tested as well as prison staff.

300 inmates that were viewed most likely to have the virus were tested and half came back positive. The remaining 400 inmates plus prison staff were tested the next day. Of that 400 that tested positive (they didn't give an exact number) 98% are showing NO symptoms.

Interesting that

1. We allocated so many tests to inmates.

2. That 98% of positives in the second group show no symptoms whatsoever.
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Colonel Armstrong
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4:06p, 4/17/20
Starts around 19:30 for reference to the prison testing

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Daviewolf83
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5:55p, 4/17/20
Staff
The new IHME model is out. Shows the mean total number of deaths to be 251 for NC and reaching this number the first of May. I said last weekend I thought deaths would be around 250, based on data last week and I still think it may be close to that number, but could go a little higher due to long-term managed care facilities and the recent uptick in cases. The model shows NC peaking on daily deaths yesterday. I think the model is using data that may be a couple of days old, given the recent uptick in cases and deaths. I still believe the peak in daily deaths will be next week.
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Wayland
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6:12p, 4/17/20
NandO has the deaths at 170 and WRAL at 179 (+2 non NC). Which doesn't align with our hospital numbers. It means we are losing a lot in congregate facilities.

Davie - one map here has congregate cases: https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/nc-coronavirus-cases-live-maps/19010016/ But I don't think the counts are accurate.
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lumberpack5
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6:27p, 4/17/20
There is an underlying American policy issue here that could stand some discussion - the amount of medical treatment given to Septuagenarians, Octogenarians, and Nonagenarians. The health profession that we are attempting to protect is most vulnerable when they are treating the very old. The cost/benefit to society is very high when you lose a healthcare or emergency responder for several really old people.

The laws, payments systems, and training all encourage heroic and expensive treatments for those in their last 10% of life.

Personally I think society should spend more on the very young. That's the better economic choice.
I like the athletic type
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cowboypack02
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In reply to lumberpack5 • 6:33p, 4/17/20
lumberpack5 said:
There is an underlying American policy issue here that could stand some discussion - the amount of medical treatment given to Septuagenarians, Octogenarians, and Nonagenarians. The health profession that we are attempting to protect is most vulnerable when they are treating the very old. The cost/benefit to society is very high when you lose a healthcare or emergency responder for several really old people.

The laws, payments systems, and training all encourage heroic and expensive treatments for those in their last 10% of life.

Personally I think society should spend more on the very young. That's the better economic choice.


I don't think that's very fair to those people considering that they have paid into the system their entire life
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to Wayland • 7:25p, 4/17/20
Staff
Wayland said:
NandO has the deaths at 170 and WRAL at 179 (+2 non NC). Which doesn't align with our hospital numbers. It means we are losing a lot in congregate facilities.

Davie - one map here has congregate cases: https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/nc-coronavirus-cases-live-maps/19010016/ But I don't think the counts are accurate.
WRAL has updated there tracking map.When I looked early this morning they had not filled in the Long-term Care facility information. It looks like they have started filling it in, but some data that was there yesterday, is not there today. I am not sure if the data changed or if they have not gotten all counties updated yet. I will try counting up the numbers later tonight.
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PackMom
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7:56p, 4/17/20
Really appreciate y'all who accumulate and analyze this information for us.
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Wayland
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7:17a, 4/18/20
Nearly one third of people tested in Chelsea, MA had antibodies for covid.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true


Testing was done using a device from company in Morrisville, NC with results done in minutes, but our state government seemed puzzled when asked about antibody testing. The companies are in your damn backyard.
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Wayland
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8:20a, 4/18/20
NC is now reporting that 54 of the 152 deaths as of yesterday are congregate related.

An additional 16 deaths they do not have the type setting for.

1226 cases are CONFIRMED congregate cases.

2139 cases they do not have a type setting for.

2494 cases are NON congregate cases.
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Wayland
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8:43a, 4/18/20
When you are the state and you have a predetermined outcome for your models, you get something like this. The most recent NC specific analysis. Funny that they didn't go back and release a second model of their April 6 analysis that was mostly crap because they couldn't get it to fit their narrative. They just throw a bunch of 'hypothetical' scenarios in a blender without using any basis in reality for the models. But this is what policy will be build on because this is how the state government wanted the argument framed.

https://www.shepscenter.unc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Brief-2_4-17-20.pdf

Also notice they are using a starting point of 523 hospitalization number, which far exceeds what was actually reported by DHHS on April 15.

I mean even look how arguments are framed:

"For example, fast forward a few weeks, and imagine social distancing measures were relaxed, and the number of COVID-19 patients hospitalized has now risen to 2,000 statewide (again, this is hypothetical, not the result of new modeling). "

Their is no REAL analysis for achieving their model. They are just plugging random numbers into hypotheticals to drive the fear and narrative.

Hypothetically, what if social distancing is lifted and hospitalized patients stay relatively level? Hypothetically, I can say anything since there is no basis in reality for my model. Hypothetically?
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wilmwolf
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In reply to Wayland • 9:03a, 4/18/20
And that is yet another indication that the rate of spread is much higher than being reported. If they would get off their asses and have widespread antibody testing, I'm certain we would see this everywhere. We're locked up inside trying to prevent the spread of something that has likely already run through much of the population.
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Steve Williams
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In reply to wilmwolf • 9:20a, 4/18/20
Staff
wilmwolf80 said:
And that is yet another indication that the rate of spread is much higher than being reported. If they would get off their asses and have widespread antibody testing, I'm certain we would see this everywhere. We're locked up inside trying to prevent the spread of something that has likely already run through much of the population.
But if they do widespread testing and it does show that it's much more widespread than is being reported, doesn't that kill the narrative that we're in the middle of the apocalypse? You look at the testing done at just one prison in NC. 98% tested positive and were asymptomatic.

It's so difficult (at least for me) to take anything the media says seriously. You look at this headline:

COVID-19 cases surge at NC prison; more than 250 inmates infected, officials say

That headline is certainly accurate but buried at the bottom of the article is the following quote which makes the headline very misleading.

Among the inmates who've tested positive, 98 percent have no symptoms so far, according to Ishee, the state prisons commissioner.




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CLA327
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In reply to wilmwolf • 9:23a, 4/18/20
Linked below is an extremely well-written article by a Tennessee doctor and five of his colleagues that supports a lot of what has been posited here by Wayland, Davie, Wilmwolf and others. Read it while you can though; it is posted on Medium and this guy has already had one post erased because it "did not Medium's standards"......

https://medium.com/@jbgeach/changing-the-goalposts-four-more-reasons-it-is-safe-to-open-america-560cfc0ab4c3
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Wayland
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9:27a, 4/18/20
98% ASYMPTOMATIC. WOW.

"9:00 a.m.: A COVID-19 outbreak at a North Carolina state prison has spread to more than 250 inmates, prison officials said Friday. On April 2, the prison reported two inmates with COVID-19. By April 17, it had reached at least 259 inmates.

State prisons Commissioner Todd Ishee said during a media briefing that 259 inmates had tested positive as of Friday afternoon at Neuse Correctional Institution, a state prison in Goldsboro. He said none currently require hospitalization and that 98% of those testing positive were asymptomatic. All 700 inmates have been tested but some test results are pending."

Steve, and those positive cases are going to be held as a huge negative against the state. "Look at the spike!!!" when we know COVID is already way more widespread and more testing will just lead to more positives.

We need sampling!!!!
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wilmwolf
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In reply to Steve Williams • 9:31a, 4/18/20
Honestly, one of the strangest things about this totally unprecedented situation is how a certain narrative has been pushed, sometimes to the detriment of the actual facts. It is understandable that early on it was necessary to help people understand the potential dangers, but we are four months in now (depending on which timeline you believe), I'm quite certain that everyone in the world knows that this virus can kill you. Very early on, some very smart people said that the virus may be more widespread and less lethal than was being reported, but those people all were shouted down. If in fact that theory turns out to be true, then there shouldn't be anything wrong with updating the narrative to fit the facts as we now know them. As I said earlier in the thread, it's fine to make drastic decisions based on the information you have at that time, but when the information changes, the decisions need to be updated.
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Steve Williams
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In reply to CLA327 • 9:33a, 4/18/20
Staff
CLA327 said:
Linked below is an extremely well-written article by a Tennessee doctor and five of his colleagues that supports a lot of what has been posited here by Wayland, Davie, Wilmwolf and others. Read it while you can though; it is posted on Medium and this guy has already had one post erased because it "did not Medium's standards"......

https://medium.com/@jbgeach/changing-the-goalposts-four-more-reasons-it-is-safe-to-open-america-560cfc0ab4c3
Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.
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Wayland
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In reply to wilmwolf • 9:38a, 4/18/20
wilmwolf80 said:
Honestly, one of the strangest things about this totally unprecedented situation is how a certain narrative has been pushed, sometimes to the detriment of the actual facts. It is understandable that early on it was necessary to help people understand the potential dangers, but we are four months in now (depending on which timeline you believe), I'm quite certain that everyone in the world knows that this virus can kill you. Very early on, some very smart people said that the virus may be more widespread and less lethal than was being reported, but those people all were shouted down. If in fact that theory turns out to be true, then there shouldn't be anything wrong with updating the narrative to fit the facts as we now know them. As I said earlier in the thread, it's fine to make drastic decisions based on the information you have at that time, but when the information changes, the decisions need to be updated.

I watched a couple interviews last night from UnHerd. It is a UK channel and the perspective is focused that way.

I watched the epidemiologist, media, and then the day 10 one. Basically it is dissenting opinions, but the one guy was interesting (if not an ass) where he was more upset that anyone challenge the narrative was being shot down. He said he was OK to be wrong with his assertions that we have gone too far, but we need to at least have an open and data driven discussion about things.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMxiv15iK_MFayY_3fU9loQ/videos
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Steve Williams
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In reply to wilmwolf • 9:41a, 4/18/20
Staff
wilmwolf80 said:
Honestly, one of the strangest things about this totally unprecedented situation is how a certain narrative has been pushed, sometimes to the detriment of the actual facts. It is understandable that early on it was necessary to help people understand the potential dangers, but we are four months in now (depending on which timeline you believe), I'm quite certain that everyone in the world knows that this virus can kill you. Very early on, some very smart people said that the virus may be more widespread and less lethal than was being reported, but those people all were shouted down. If in fact that theory turns out to be true, then there shouldn't be anything wrong with updating the narrative to fit the facts as we now know them. As I said earlier in the thread, it's fine to make drastic decisions based on the information you have at that time, but when the information changes, the decisions need to be updated.
Beyond a narrative, it almost seems if this story is agenda driven by the media. Politics aside, I do give Dan Forest credit for being bluntly honest in calling out the media and basically saying this has been a huge money maker for them. The longer they keep it alive, the more money they make. In the beginning they threw out numbers like 2.2 million deaths and we shut the nation down accordingly. Now, we're unlikely to see 5% of that initial estimate. However, they continue to shove shutdown down everyone's throat as if we're still facing the 2.2 million number.
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RunsWithWolves26
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11:07a, 4/18/20
Hold on. You mean to tell me that the media is pushing a false narrative and that government official sat all levels and and in political parties are doing this? That can't be! None of these people have an agenda. The are all just as dumb as a knot on a log! When this first started, I was in the group that said ok, **** it down for a couple weeks until new data is available and then go from there. The problem is, they did shut it down but they have REFUSED to use the new data available to them now. They've just kept up the narrative that life is over and you just have to deal with it because we are the government and we know best.

As time went on, I started trending toward the group that said this is getting way out of hand. You can't take people's rights from them just because you want to and just because you have a narrative to portray. My hope is that, come election time, this stuff is remembered. As someone who didn't vote for Trump, he's about the only one who didn't jump into the fear mongering category even though he has certainly fallen short during this, as has every other elected official. I've always felt this thing was lore widespread then reported. Doctors were saying they had seen this stuff all the way back to December. The question remains though. Will this new testing showing it is more widespread and less deadly then previously reported actually get a fair shake in the media or will it be buried to keep the narrative going? In of the thinking it will be the latter of the two.
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CLA327
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In reply to Wayland • 11:59a, 4/18/20
Regarding the importance of antibody testing and sampling, the latest moonbattery from WHO. Don't let them fool us again......


https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2020/04/18/820853/
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Wayland
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12:06p, 4/18/20
As I wait for DHHS to publish their daily numbers (they are an hour past their own deadline), I checked Wake County.

Yesterday Wake's COVID count increased by the massive number of 8 new cases 566->574.

Again, positives is a false metric, but wow, the hospitals must be overrun with 8 new positives today.
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Wayland
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In reply to Wayland • 12:48p, 4/18/20
Wayland said:
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https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204


4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184

4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)

NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259

Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.

15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)

2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.
4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271

Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?

Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.
4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261

Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age


4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270


4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)

NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354

Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.

The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.
4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987

4/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3651
NC Deaths**
65
Currently Hospitalized
398
Completed Tests
47809

Looks like deaths now align with media totals for the morning. 82% of deaths > 65

16 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care Facilities, 4 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.
4/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3908
NC Deaths**
74
Currently Hospitalized
423
Completed Tests
57645

A 2.5% positive test rate is insanely low.

23 Nursing Homes, 6 Residential Care Facilities, 5 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.

7 Additional nursing home since YESTERDAY (and 2 additional residential care). Just goes to show you how ineffective this has all been when we aren't actually protecting the most vulnerable. Time for a shift in strategy.
4/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:38am)

NC Cases*
4312
NC Deaths**
80
Currently Hospitalized
362
Completed Tests
60393

Hospitalizations down.

Media reporting 84 deaths (so still a gap in reporting there)

2 more Nursing Homes 1 more Residential to add to outbreaks.

4/12/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)

NC Cases*
4520
NC Deaths**
81
Currently Hospitalized
331
Completed Tests
62139

4/13/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)

NC Cases*
4816
NC Deaths**
86
Currently Hospitalized
313
Completed Tests
63,388
4/14/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
5024
NC Deaths**
108
Currently Hospitalized
418
Completed Tests
65039

Now up to 30 nursing home outbreaks, 9 residential care, 6 correctional, and 1 other. Continues to explode here.
4/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
5123
NC Deaths**
117
Currently Hospitalized
431
Completed Tests
67827
4/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
5465
NC Deaths**
131
Currently Hospitalized
452 (88% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
70917


Interesting the >65 death rate seems to have spiked. It was around 80% for a long time, and is now at 84%

4/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
5859
NC Deaths**
152
Currently Hospitalized
429 (87% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
72981
4/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
6140
NC Deaths**
164
Currently Hospitalized
388 (88% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
76211

This count is way below NandO (at 172) and WRAL 179 (+2 non NC). So I don't know what DHHS is doing those sites have been pretty consistent since midday yesterday. Unless DHHS is lagging trying to confirm case info.

59 Deaths are now Congregate (+5 since yesterday)
18 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not (+2 since yesterday)

55 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak.

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Pacfanweb
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12:56p, 4/18/20
Stanford study has shown what many of us suspect: The virus is already far more widespread than reported.

"Random sampling test shows coronavirus more widespread and less deadly than previously thought: Study


A coronavirus antibody test conducted by Stanford University scientists concluded that the infection is both more common than previously thought and possesses a lower fatality rate than what current data suggest.

"Our data imply that, by April 1 (three days prior to the end of our survey) between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara County. The reported number of confirmed positive cases in the county on April 1 was 956, 50-85-fold lower than the number of infections predicted by this study," their study reads."

""After adjusting for population and test performance characteristics, we estimate that the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County is between 2.49% and 4.16%, with uncertainty bounds ranging from 1.80% (lower uncertainty bound of the lowest estimate), up to 5.70% (upper uncertainty bound of the highest estimate)," the study said."




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Daviewolf83
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1:15p, 4/18/20
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So many things to discuss today. Here are my thoughts on what is happening (or not happening) in NC and nationwide regarding the virus.

1. Based on the data, I think it is safe to say the coronavirus is a highly transmittable disease - much more transmittable than the flu. It also seems like the virus has a higher percentage of asymptomatic cases than the flu.

2. As far as the mortality rate of the virus, it is still difficult to nail down a solid number due to how many asymptomatic and mild cases it produces. The degree to which it appears to "hide" makes it difficult to determine the true number of people infected. A recent anti-body study out of Santa Clara (run by Stanford) and the recent one out of Boston )(run by Boston Mass) seems to point to a much higher infection rate than evidenced by the confirmed cases. If you look at both studies and accept they are accurate on infection rates (still to be confirmed), it appears mortality rate may only be slightly higher than the flu.

3. I would urge caution at this point in accepting the results of any antibody test. The tests being cite are all using antibody tests that are still going through trial and are not fully validated through study. Dr.Birx discussed the antibody tests yesterday and also urged caution. She said more validation needs to be conducted by sampling know positive cases from areas that have been highly contaminated. The Boston Chelsea study seems to be a study that fits what she is talking about and I think she would also want to see some studies from NYC, given her comments. The Santa Clara study is being peer reviewed now and there are already some questions being raised about its potential for producing false-positives. As Dr. Birx said yesterday, the worst thing you can do is to tell someone they are positive for the antibody when they are not.

4. Testing is the one area I have been commenting on all along and I think everyone knows my view of Governor Cooper and staff. Based on the briefing yesterday by Dr. Birx and Admiral Giroir, I think we have a very good view of where we stand today, what we need, and how to get there. Governor Cooper keeps saying we do not have the capacity to do the testing necessary to move to Phase 1, but the update yesterday renders this inaccurate. Here is what we learned:

  • In the US, over 1 million tests were completed this past week. In a month, the US has completed over 3.7 million tests. To put this in context, the US conducts 2 million HIV tests in a year. So, the US has completed more Covid-19 tests in one month than we do in a year for HIV. I actually think this is impressive.
  • The federal government has outlined a plan the overall testing and sentinel testing. I do not know why the state of NC has to come up with their own plan. Maybe they are using the Federal plan, but it is not clear they are from their updates. Based on the Federal plan, they estimate the US will need to do 4.5 million tests per month to move to get enough data to move to Phase 1.
  • The plan is to test approximately 4 million people who are symptomatic and asymptomatic with the goal of finding one out of ten people tested who are positive. Currently, in NC we are seeing 8% of people tested as being positive. The flu tracking system the CDC has today will be used to raise the alert when an uptick in cases above a baseline is found. Part of this testing includes contact tracing and assumes you will need to test five contacts for every positive test you find (CDC estimates). The contract tracing numbers are included in the 4 million tests.
  • Additionally, they will need to sentinel test about 500,000 people a month - focused on the at-risk population in nursing homes and large metro areas. The sentinel testing will be conducted by the CDC and they will use the flu alert system to raise the alarm when they see a spike in one of these communities.
5. Testing capacity has been limited, but it is now increasing at a high rate. For example, by the end of May the federal government believes they will have enough testing kits available to run over 12 million tests.
  • For a period of time, swab capacity was an issue due to constraints on cotton swabs. Recently, the FDA has approved the use of foam swabs and synthetic polyester swabs. Reportedly, the polyester swabs can be manufactured in very large quantities.
  • Related to swabs, the FDA has approved the sampling of the virus from the front of the nose, in addition to the back of nasal cavity. This has also greatly improved the capacity of swabs.
  • Transport media capacity has been approved by the approval of new media. Originally FDA guidelines on transport media (fluid the swabs are placed into for transport to the labs) limited the types of media that could be used. Since this time, the FDA has approved more readily available media which greatly improves the supply of media.
  • NC currently has the capacity (spread across hospitals, private labs, and health departments) to perform 60 to 90 tests per 1,000 people. NC is in a tier of states that has a monthly capacity to run 500,00 to 999,000 tests per month. Given enough testing supplies (see above), NC has enough capacity NOW to test enough people to move to Phase 1.
  • Both Dr. Birx and Admiral Giroir stated that the private labs have excess and idle capacity now. They are focusing their attention over the next few day on educating all of the state governors and their staff on where this capacity exists.

6. It is definitely fair to point out that news programs and newspapers are motivated by generating eyeballs to look at their news reports. While they do report on news, they definitely do it in a way to increase attention and the best way to do this is to make hyperbolic statements and declarations in their reporting. Personally, I prefer to get my news straight from the source when possible. I find myself yelling at the reporters when I watch the news reports, due to the way they are choosing to report this story. When possible, I watch Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci and other health experts. I find this much more informative than watching someone interpret what others are saying and selecting parts of it to fit their narrative.

7. When I look at the most recent numbers, I am estimating that only 3,700 people in NC are currently still sick with the virus, out of 6,140 reported cases. I am basing this estimate on the fact most people are only sick for 14 days. Given the delays in reporting and the fact some cases may have been reported days after infection, I think this is a safe estimate. Of course the news media likes to report the more sensational cumulative case number I am certain many people believe there are 6,140 people in NC currently infected.

8. Good news in the latest numbers is hospitalizations are coming down again and have fallen two days in row. Also, new daily cases declined from yesterday's new cases to 281 new daily cases.The number of daily new deaths also declined from yesterdays number (21 deaths) to 12 deaths.

To point six, I would encourage everyone to watch the update of the Federal Task Force. I have included a link below and would encourage you to skip ahead to the 3 hour and 49 minute mark of the video. It contains all of the information I have mentioned here.

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lumberpack5
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In reply to cowboypack02 • 3:47p, 4/18/20
cowboypack02 said:
lumberpack5 said:
There is an underlying American policy issue here that could stand some discussion - the amount of medical treatment given to Septuagenarians, Octogenarians, and Nonagenarians. The health profession that we are attempting to protect is most vulnerable when they are treating the very old. The cost/benefit to society is very high when you lose a healthcare or emergency responder for several really old people.

The laws, payments systems, and training all encourage heroic and expensive treatments for those in their last 10% of life.

Personally I think society should spend more on the very young. That's the better economic choice.


I don't think that's very fair to those people considering that they have paid into the system their entire life
Paying into a system should cause you to get how big a benefit? Resources are not finite. I agree it's not "fair" but life is not fair. Does it make sense to spend so much on those that will not contribute back to society? From an economic standpoint a lot of resources are wasted on the very old.
I like the athletic type
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