Agree with everything you said. The CDC and governments lack of preparedness to test people combined with the decisions to shut down so much of the economy has caused incredible damage.
In answer to your question, here are my thoughts on viral load and why the virus has been so good at infecting and in many cases, killing people in this country.lumberpack5 said:
Davie, when you get the chance maybe you could talk about viral load and titer.
https://www.sciencealert.com/does-the-amount-of-covid-19-virus-you-are-exposed-to-determine-how-sick-you-ll-get
Just as a guess, it seems the virus that came through Italy is more virulent than what came into Seattle from China but now enough time has passed that you could be getting exposed to both.
4/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/14/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/13/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)Wayland said:4/12/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)Wayland said:4/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:38am)Wayland said:4/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)Wayland said:Wayland said:4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc
3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157
4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204
4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184
4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)
NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259
Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.
15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)
2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.
NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271
Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?
Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.
NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261
Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age
4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270
NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354
Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.
The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.
NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987
NC Cases*
3651
NC Deaths**
65
Currently Hospitalized
398
Completed Tests
47809
Looks like deaths now align with media totals for the morning. 82% of deaths > 65
16 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care Facilities, 4 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.
NC Cases*
3908
NC Deaths**
74
Currently Hospitalized
423
Completed Tests
57645
A 2.5% positive test rate is insanely low.
23 Nursing Homes, 6 Residential Care Facilities, 5 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.
7 Additional nursing home since YESTERDAY (and 2 additional residential care). Just goes to show you how ineffective this has all been when we aren't actually protecting the most vulnerable. Time for a shift in strategy.
NC Cases*
4312
NC Deaths**
80
Currently Hospitalized
362
Completed Tests
60393
Hospitalizations down.
Media reporting 84 deaths (so still a gap in reporting there)
2 more Nursing Homes 1 more Residential to add to outbreaks.
NC Cases*
4520
NC Deaths**
81
Currently Hospitalized
331
Completed Tests
62139
NC Cases*
4816
NC Deaths**
86
Currently Hospitalized
313
Completed Tests
63,388
NC Cases*
5024
NC Deaths**
108
Currently Hospitalized
418
Completed Tests
65039
Now up to 30 nursing home outbreaks, 9 residential care, 6 correctional, and 1 other. Continues to explode here.
NC Cases*
5123
NC Deaths**
117
Currently Hospitalized
431
Completed Tests
67827
25-49 - 8 deathsstatefan91 said:
Do you have a breakout of the age ranges and deaths? I know I could search for it but I assume you've got it handy
It is interesting to me that 27% of the cases are people aged 65+ and yet 84% of the deaths are in this same age range. Like you, I believe most of the new cases are coming from the 65+ age group and it is directly related to the testing being conducted now in nursing homes. I expect cases to continue to rise as they test this population and I am certain almost half the deaths in NC will eventually be from people in nursing/long-term care facilities.Wayland said:25-49 - 8 deathsstatefan91 said:
Do you have a breakout of the age ranges and deaths? I know I could search for it but I assume you've got it handy
50-64 - 13 deaths
65+ - 110 deaths
No deaths below 25.
Unfortunately NC does not break it down even further like most states where they give actual decade instead of broad sweeping like 65+ or 25-49.
65 and 85 are very different as are 25 and 49.
Another fascinating trend. I wish I had noted the numbers are the time, but it makes sense based on testing. The percentage of cases in 65+ age has spiked. I feel like when DHHS first posted the numbers it was around 15% and now it is 27%. But it makes sense since they are basically only testing the elderly or SEVERELY ill (or frontline workers and rich people)
Even Charlotte where I'm at shouldn't be completely locked down. I am fine with the practices of limited capacity at stores and restaurants, social distancing, etc. I have little hope that Mecklenburg will be at the front of figuring out how to open up based on how the county's leaders are acting (Health Director and County Manager)King Leary said:
It's become clear that we can't treat all areas of the country the same. People in places with very little COVID spread are realizing that it makes no sense for them to stay at home for an indefinite amount of time.
NYC and other hot spots need drastic measures, but places in NC don't need those same measures.
Study from China about their outbreak (I know I know) had virtually zero traced cases to outdoor activities... a vast majority of the cases was intrafamilial or from public transit, if I recall correctly.wilmwolf80 said:
Quite frankly a good number of people, at least here where I live, aren't staying at home, and haven't been for weeks. It was a ghost town at first, but for the last two weeks, traffic isn't much different than normal. They obviously aren't going to shops or restaurants, but they are out and about, in stores, definitely not always sex feet apart. There's people on the golf courses, on the tennis courts, in the parks. But cases remain low in New Hanover county, and only one death last time I looked, despite having a fairly large population of retirees. I can't see how having a bunch of people in a park is any different than having a bunch of people at an outdoor concert, or how a bunch of people in Home Depot is different than a bunch of people in a bar, so I really don't know what is being accomplished in my area. It's different everywhere, and I don't know what it's like in other parts of the state since things got locked down. It just seems like here it's mostly business as usual.
On the other hand, there are states like NY announcing a continued shutdown until mid-May. I suspect the other Northeastern states (NJ, Conn, RI, Mass) will follow their lead. I suspect Maine will open up earlier, given their low case and death numbers.Wayland said:
Some states are starting to announce May 1 for their initial restriction rollbacks. I have seen Ohio and ND so far.
Wayland said:Study from China about their outbreak (I know I know) had virtually zero traced cases to outdoor activities... a vast majority of the cases was intrafamilial or from public transit, if I recall correctly.wilmwolf80 said:
Quite frankly a good number of people, at least here where I live, aren't staying at home, and haven't been for weeks. It was a ghost town at first, but for the last two weeks, traffic isn't much different than normal. They obviously aren't going to shops or restaurants, but they are out and about, in stores, definitely not always sex feet apart. There's people on the golf courses, on the tennis courts, in the parks. But cases remain low in New Hanover county, and only one death last time I looked, despite having a fairly large population of retirees. I can't see how having a bunch of people in a park is any different than having a bunch of people at an outdoor concert, or how a bunch of people in Home Depot is different than a bunch of people in a bar, so I really don't know what is being accomplished in my area. It's different everywhere, and I don't know what it's like in other parts of the state since things got locked down. It just seems like here it's mostly business as usual.
Found it: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1
Take everything with a grain of salt these days but:
"Abstract
Background: By early April 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had infected nearly one million people and had spread to nearly all countries worldwide. It is essential to understand where and how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted. Methods: Case reports were extracted from the local Municipal Health Commissions of 320 prefectural cities (municipalities) in China, not including Hubei province, between 4 January and 11 February 2020. We identified all outbreaks involving three or more cases and reviewed the major characteristics of the enclosed spaces in which the outbreaks were reported and associated indoor environmental issues. Results: Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk."
I think the store crap is basically false measures to give people that they scared the crap out of 'warm fuzzies' to make sure that they can still do their daily tasks.wilmwolf80 said:
So that would again make me question what the fundamental difference is from being in Costco and being in a bar. I know that they are limiting the number of people in stores and trying to keep people six feet apart, but it hasn't been my experience that people are minding that distance. We also know that six feet is basically an arbitrary number, because the virus can travel much farther than that in a cough or sneeze, or live on a surface for a period of time. I can accept an argument that the nature of a bar or concert venue entails that people will probably be in closer contact in those areas, but is the risk of transmission fundamentally different between a Home Depot and a Waffle House? Do you realistically have less of a chance of picking up the virus in a drivethru line versus your barber if both are wearing a mask and gloves and sanitizing between customers? I just don't think so. Clearly if you are never in contact with anyone else, you have almost no chance of getting it, but we've effectively allowed some types of contact and not others, and in my eyes, I don't see how that is effective at all.
This makes sense to me on the surface. My only worry is interstate travel, inter-city travel, etc. How do we monitor?wilmwolf80 said:
"You really need to start treating the states more like countries a la Europe."
Yup. I've said that many times in this thread. The measures need to be tailored to individual states and even metropolitan areas within states. One size fits all is stupid.
Must have been an anomaly, because I live in WF and there's WAY less traffic. Even Capital Blvd isn't crowded anymore, which is quite nice.packgrad said:
Traffic has picked up substantially in the triangle this week. Still lower than pre quarantine, but it has increased significantly. My one outlier and it could have just been the time of day but this week I was in wake forest, first time in a few weeks, and noticed little difference in their traffic there. Cars everywhere. Not making it through the light cycle. Wake Forest people are ready to get the show on the road, it seems.
Pacfanweb said:Must have been an anomaly, because I live in WF and there's WAY less traffic. Even Capital Blvd isn't crowded anymore, which is quite nice.packgrad said:
Traffic has picked up substantially in the triangle this week. Still lower than pre quarantine, but it has increased significantly. My one outlier and it could have just been the time of day but this week I was in wake forest, first time in a few weeks, and noticed little difference in their traffic there. Cars everywhere. Not making it through the light cycle. Wake Forest people are ready to get the show on the road, it seems.