Davie, I think you are absolutely correct with your assessments. I also think that someone or someones at NCDHHS know this as well but are refusing to publicly release this information and it is a big reason of why they are mysteriously forecasting a mid June peak for covid cases.

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/15/boston-homeless-population-coronavirus-asymptomatic-universal-testing

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20059618v1

A week and a half ago, over 400 in Boston tested for Covid 19, 36% tested active positive. 3 showed symptoms.

Links to study and article from Boston NPR radio station.

Wayland said:

---

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/15/boston-homeless-population-coronavirus-asymptomatic-universal-testing

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20059618v1

A week and a half ago, over 400 in Boston tested for Covid 19, 36% tested active positive. 3 showed symptoms.

Links to study and article from Boston NPR radio station.

---

Really need testing to determine how many asymptomatic people there are. This thing could be significantly more widespread than they think and less of a danger to the broad public.

CLA327 said:

---

Davie, I think you are absolutely correct with your assessments. I also think that someone or someones at NCDHHS know this as well but are refusing to publicly release this information and it is a big reason of why they are mysteriously forecasting a mid June peak for covid cases.

---

I would hate to think our NC leaders have information the public could consume that would make their forecast more reasonable, but are not releasing it. As it sounds now, it appears they are using a bunk model.

"This thing could be significantly more widespread than they think and less of a danger to the broad public. "

I've believed this for quite some time. I don't know whether anyone actually cares enough to ever do enough testing to confirm it, but I believe it to be the case, and as such, I think we are currently off course with the actions we are taking.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/One-fifth-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-Texas-linked-15201176.php

One third of Texas deaths linked to nursing homes (22%) or assisted living facilities (8%).

statefan91 said:

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Wayland said:

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https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/15/boston-homeless-population-coronavirus-asymptomatic-universal-testing

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20059618v1

A week and a half ago, over 400 in Boston tested for Covid 19, 36% tested active positive. 3 showed symptoms.

Links to study and article from Boston NPR radio station.

---

Really need testing to determine how many asymptomatic people there are. This thing could be significantly more widespread than they think and less of a danger to the broad public.

---

Better tests are needed in addition to more.

My brother is an ER Dr. The data he's being given at a hospital in Charlotte is that the antibody tests are inaccurate at best and they easily confuse CV19 antibodies with the more mild coronaviruses.

They are also seeing some data that antibodies may not make you immune and that reinfection is possible.

As a Dr. he's very conservative on all of this, but it's interesting to hear his worries as a front line person who's getting most of his info directly from published studies and the hospital, not the news media.

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https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204


4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184

4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)

NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259

Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.

15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)

2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.

---

4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271

Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?

Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.

---

4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261

Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age

---

4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270

---

4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)

NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354

Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.

The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.

---

4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987

---

4/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3651
NC Deaths**
65
Currently Hospitalized
398
Completed Tests
47809

Looks like deaths now align with media totals for the morning. 82% of deaths > 65

16 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care Facilities, 4 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.

---

4/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3908
NC Deaths**
74
Currently Hospitalized
423
Completed Tests
57645

A 2.5% positive test rate is insanely low.

23 Nursing Homes, 6 Residential Care Facilities, 5 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.

7 Additional nursing home since YESTERDAY (and 2 additional residential care). Just goes to show you how ineffective this has all been when we aren't actually protecting the most vulnerable. Time for a shift in strategy.

---

4/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:38am)

NC Cases*
4312
NC Deaths**
80
Currently Hospitalized
362
Completed Tests
60393

Hospitalizations down.

Media reporting 84 deaths (so still a gap in reporting there)

2 more Nursing Homes 1 more Residential to add to outbreaks.

---

4/12/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)

NC Cases*
4520
NC Deaths**
81
Currently Hospitalized
331
Completed Tests
62139

---

4/13/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)

NC Cases*
4816
NC Deaths**
86
Currently Hospitalized
313
Completed Tests
63,388

---

4/14/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
5024
NC Deaths**
108
Currently Hospitalized
418
Completed Tests
65039

Now up to 30 nursing home outbreaks, 9 residential care, 6 correctional, and 1 other. Continues to explode here.

---

4/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
5123
NC Deaths**
117
Currently Hospitalized
431
Completed Tests
67827

Less than 100 positives in almost 3000 tests. Unusually low. Deaths still lagging behind media (121)

No additional reported outbreaks over yesterday.

I've had almost all the symptoms since the middle of last week-- running a fever, constant dry cough, upset stomach, tight lungs. I have spoken to my Dr several times and I can't even get a test. I'm not in the risk group, tests are in short supply, and I'm not "near hospitalization". I imagine there are lots of people in my situation. Probably even more who are asymptomatic. I'll be happy when the antibody tests become widespread and available--- if I do have it I'm sure I'll be over it in a week and never have been added to any statistics

ETA- I have been self quarantining as the Dr has ordered

I hope you feel better 1437

I personally know at least four people in the same situation. They too won't be counted in any statistic, but they are presumed to have it. Hard to imagine that such important decisions are being made based on very flawed statistics, but here we are. I hope you recover soon friend.

Based on the updated numbers for NC this morning, below are the updated tracking graphs. I would note that daily new cases dropped significantly and this curve growth is definitely flat and could be trending down. The growth in hospitalizations has increased, so this is not a good sign and is likely due to the growth in cases in nursing homes. I checked this morning on nursing homes and the best number I could find is a reported 443 cases in nursing homes, but I believe this number is closer to 500. Also, as you will note below, actual deaths are starting to trend below the latest IHME model.

IHME Model Comparison to Actual




Logarithmic Plot of Daily New Cases



Logarithmic Plot of Hospitalizations



Positive to Negative Testing Comparison

DHHS when asked about the hospitalizations said the dip/rise over the weekend is likely due to lack of hospital reporting. (Reporting was in the 60%s on the weekend and is almost 90% now).

While, they stated that most non-reported hospitals tend to be smaller, this could be some of the variance. But no guarantee.

WRAL already has the death total at 129. They are fast this morning.

Highest Death Totals (according to NandO - some of these not in DHHS) by county

16 - Mecklenburg
10 - Guilford
8 - Johnston
7 - Rowan
7 - Henderson
5 - Burke
4 - Forsyth
3 - Seven Counties

I think a lot of these are congregate spikes.

Edited to add Burke at 5.

Wayland said:

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DHHS when asked about the hospitalizations said the dip/rise over the weekend is likely due to lack of hospital reporting. (Reporting was in the 60%s on the weekend and is almost 90% now).

While, they stated that most non-reported hospitals tend to be smaller, this could be some of the variance. But no guarantee.

WRAL already has the death total at 129. They are fast this morning.

Highest Death Totals (according to NandO - some of these not in DHHS) by county

16 - Mecklenburg
10 - Guilford
8 - Johnston
7 - Rowan
7 - Henderson
4 - Forsyth
3 - Seven Counties

I think a lot of these are congregate spikes.

---

I always subtract 2 from the WRAL number, since it includes 2 that will never be in the NC official numbers (out of state resident deaths). The latest IHME model projects a mean death total tomorrow of 145 people.

wolfpack1437 said:

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I've had almost all the symptoms since the middle of last week-- running a fever, constant dry cough, upset stomach, tight lungs. I have spoken to my Dr several times and I can't even get a test. I'm not in the risk group, tests are in short supply, and I'm not "near hospitalization". I imagine there are lots of people in my situation. Probably even more who are asymptomatic. I'll be happy when the antibody tests become widespread and available--- if I do have it I'm sure I'll be over it in a week and never have been added to any statistics

ETA- I have been self quarantining as the Dr has ordered

---

Ridiculous. I tested positive 3/22 (took until 4/4 for results). I've recovered. My wife was sick before me but didn't get tested... until today. She had not felt comfortable going to the facility where multiple high risk patients were going in and out. She went to UNC (yuck ) for a drive-through test today.

Call around, get tested if you want it. Don't take no for an answer.

Hope you feel better soon, it kicked my ass for about 13 days.

WolfQuacker said:

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wolfpack1437 said:

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I've had almost all the symptoms since the middle of last week-- running a fever, constant dry cough, upset stomach, tight lungs. I have spoken to my Dr several times and I can't even get a test. I'm not in the risk group, tests are in short supply, and I'm not "near hospitalization". I imagine there are lots of people in my situation. Probably even more who are asymptomatic. I'll be happy when the antibody tests become widespread and available--- if I do have it I'm sure I'll be over it in a week and never have been added to any statistics

ETA- I have been self quarantining as the Dr has ordered

---

Ridiculous. I tested positive 3/22 (took until 4/4 for results). I've recovered. My wife was sick before me but didn't get tested... until today. She had not felt comfortable going to the facility where multiple high risk patients were going in and out. She went to UNC (yuck ) for a drive-through test today.

Call around, get tested if you want it. Don't take no for an answer.

Hope you feel better soon, it kicked my ass for about 13 days.

---

This was posted on TOS and is exactly what I've run into. The "have you had contact with anyone who had or was exposed to COVID?" question is ridiculous. I've said that I have no freaking idea and that maybe people at the grocery or drugstore I frequent have had it

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/14/coronavirus-testing-delays-186883

wolfpack1437 said:

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wolfpack1437 said:

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I've had almost all the symptoms since the middle of last week-- running a fever, constant dry cough, upset stomach, tight lungs. I have spoken to my Dr several times and I can't even get a test. I'm not in the risk group, tests are in short supply, and I'm not "near hospitalization". I imagine there are lots of people in my situation. Probably even more who are asymptomatic. I'll be happy when the antibody tests become widespread and available--- if I do have it I'm sure I'll be over it in a week and never have been added to any statistics

ETA- I have been self quarantining as the Dr has ordered

---

Ridiculous. I tested positive 3/22 (took until 4/4 for results). I've recovered. My wife was sick before me but didn't get tested... until today. She had not felt comfortable going to the facility where multiple high risk patients were going in and out. She went to UNC (yuck ) for a drive-through test today.

Call around, get tested if you want it. Don't take no for an answer.

Hope you feel better soon, it kicked my ass for about 13 days.

---

This was posted on TOS and is exactly what I've run into. The "have you had contact with anyone who had or was exposed to COVID?" question is ridiculous. I've said that I have no freaking idea and that maybe people at the grocery or drugstore I frequent have had it

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/14/coronavirus-testing-delays-186883

---

Call UNC Hospitals and just tell them your neighbor tested positive or something. You have the symptoms, getting tested should not be an issue. Pisses me off.

wolfpack1437 said:

---

I've had almost all the symptoms since the middle of last week-- running a fever, constant dry cough, upset stomach, tight lungs. I have spoken to my Dr several times and I can't even get a test. I'm not in the risk group, tests are in short supply, and I'm not "near hospitalization". I imagine there are lots of people in my situation. Probably even more who are asymptomatic. I'll be happy when the antibody tests become widespread and available--- if I do have it I'm sure I'll be over it in a week and never have been added to any statistics

ETA- I have been self quarantining as the Dr has ordered

---

Sturgill Simpson was in your situation. Actively touring, feeling horrible, symptomatic, could not get tested.

Almost a month later, drive-thru testing confirmed he was positive.

And agree -- seems that then many more would be positive but asymptomatic.

ETA --- hope you get better quickly...and that your family is protected

So was he contagious that whole month? Or are people only contagious while they are recovering? I've been confused on this.

King Leary said:

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So was he contagious that whole month? Or are people only contagious while they are recovering? I've been confused on this.

---

I wondered the same. Told my kids I was just glad we didn't have any backstage passes when he was in Charlotte.
But....would wonder, impact on band, roadies, restaurants, hotels he stayed in, etc

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https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204


4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184

4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)

NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259

Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.

15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)

2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.

---

4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271

Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?

Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.

---

4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261

Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age

---

4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270

---

4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)

NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354

Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.

The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.

---

4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987

---

4/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3651
NC Deaths**
65
Currently Hospitalized
398
Completed Tests
47809

Looks like deaths now align with media totals for the morning. 82% of deaths > 65

16 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care Facilities, 4 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.

---

4/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3908
NC Deaths**
74
Currently Hospitalized
423
Completed Tests
57645

A 2.5% positive test rate is insanely low.

23 Nursing Homes, 6 Residential Care Facilities, 5 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.

7 Additional nursing home since YESTERDAY (and 2 additional residential care). Just goes to show you how ineffective this has all been when we aren't actually protecting the most vulnerable. Time for a shift in strategy.

---

4/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:38am)

NC Cases*
4312
NC Deaths**
80
Currently Hospitalized
362
Completed Tests
60393

Hospitalizations down.

Media reporting 84 deaths (so still a gap in reporting there)

2 more Nursing Homes 1 more Residential to add to outbreaks.

---

4/12/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)

NC Cases*
4520
NC Deaths**
81
Currently Hospitalized
331
Completed Tests
62139

---

4/13/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)

NC Cases*
4816
NC Deaths**
86
Currently Hospitalized
313
Completed Tests
63,388

---

4/14/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
5024
NC Deaths**
108
Currently Hospitalized
418
Completed Tests
65039

Now up to 30 nursing home outbreaks, 9 residential care, 6 correctional, and 1 other. Continues to explode here.

---

4/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
5123
NC Deaths**
117
Currently Hospitalized
431
Completed Tests
67827

Less than 100 positives in almost 3000 tests. Unusually low. Deaths still lagging behind media (121)

No additional reported outbreaks over yesterday.

---

The fact that these #s (coupled with Charlotte's report of ~1000 cases) still has leadership in Charlotte pursuing millions of $$ worth of a field hospital should be grounds for immediate removal from leadership.

It's either evidence of alternative agendas, or complete disregard for what the real trends are showing currently.

It's fine to have a backup / worst case plan, but the days lost thinking about that rather than spending $$ on gathering test and trace supplies so folks could begin to return to normal is so "government", that its disturbing.

US House representative taking Mecklenburg Co to task. Good thread from him.

No word on how long it takes to get results in, but I assume it can't be worse than what we are seeing now. Hopefully this takes off in NJ and can help the current dearth of national testing.

Daviewolf - can you contact Joe Bruno on twitter/email? He seems like he's at least asking questions about the models and talking about them.

Also, Charlotte hospitals now saying they don't need the 3k or 600 bed field hospitals that were originally talked about

It makes no logical sense that a peak would come in June given that social distancing has been in effect for weeks now

As I have been trying to get out. That UPenn model is available to anyone and can be HIGHLY manipulated using the Social Distancing input. And even warns caution against using results from it.

Try it yourself.

https://penn-chime.phl.io/


You can't just have anyone using a plug and chug that they do not fundamentally understand and developing policy off of it.

statefan91 said:

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Daviewolf - can you contact Joe Bruno on twitter/email? He seems like he's at least asking questions about the models and talking about them.

---

I have tweeted back to Joe Bruno and provided him some of my information. Here is one of the tweets I just sent to him.

Awesome - glad to see.

Another question for anyone really - why does # of cases matter in terms of what is reported? Shouldn't it be # of ACTIVE cases? Everything being done is driven off of not overloading our HC system and trying to prolong the spread, so shouldn't the number of concurrent cases be the most relevant data point?

statefan91 said:

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Awesome - glad to see.

Another question for anyone really - why does # of cases matter in terms of what is reported? Shouldn't it be # of ACTIVE cases? Everything being done is driven off of not overloading our HC system and trying to prolong the spread, so shouldn't the number of concurrent cases be the most relevant data point?

---

600,000+ cases gets much more eyeballs then actual active cases. This is all media driven to get as many eyeballs on the tv as possible.

statefan91 said:

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Awesome - glad to see.

Another question for anyone really - why does # of cases matter in terms of what is reported? Shouldn't it be # of ACTIVE cases? Everything being done is driven off of not overloading our HC system and trying to prolong the spread, so shouldn't the number of concurrent cases be the most relevant data point?

---

This is the other thing that drives me nuts about NC (and most of US), we don't care about resolved cases. Once you are positive, you are positive forever and never tested again to get you off the chart. I guess not that it matters at this point, just need sampling data since they have so f'd up testing.

You were on that quick, as well as the governor's model.

statefan91 said:

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Awesome - glad to see.

Another question for anyone really - why does # of cases matter in terms of what is reported? Shouldn't it be # of ACTIVE cases? Everything being done is driven off of not overloading our HC system and trying to prolong the spread, so shouldn't the number of concurrent cases be the most relevant data point?

---

The number of actual cases is important for determining the case fatality rate (CFR). If you only include the confirmed cases, it will drastically over-inflate the CFR and give you a death rate that is much higher than you would expect to see. For example, in NC if you calculate the CFR based on confirmed cases and deaths, you get a CFR of 2%. This is really too high and in countries that have done a great deal more testing than NC (or the US), the CFR is much lower - in some cases below 1%. Even at a CFR of 2%, this means 98% of people will get the virus and survive.

Given the limited amount of testing being done, I have focused more on hospitalizations than I have on cases, since those are only cases verified by a lab. I have also looked at hospitalization as a percentage of total cases and this has ranged from 6% to the 11%. It is not an exact measure, since I am only able to see total cases and not total active cases.

Someone yesterday tweeted out that NC had over 5,000 active cases of Covid and this is entirely inaccurate. I corrected them by pointing out that 5,000 is the total number of confirmed cases, since testing began. It does not subtract out those people who are now over the virus and are no longer an infection risk.

packgrad said:

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You were on that quick, as well as the governor's model.

---

All this stuff is out there, I am no more an expert than anyone. I am just trying to reconcile the headlines and the warnings with the raw data as it is presented. I just want the people in charge to understand what they are talking about and when they don't the media to challenge them, but neither of these things is happening.

I just wish media and policy makers would be more open to discussion about this data and have a real honest conversation, instead of hiding behind charts and treating us all like children.

That is all I am asking. Honest and open discussion.