Coronavirus

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Wayland
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In reply to packgrad • 10:18a, 4/6/20
packgrad said:
As has the screaming that we don't have enough ventilators. Cuomo said he needed 30000. Looks like he won't need close to that. Probably not even half. It's why I don't take the claims that we will run out of the malaria treatment seriously.
He said all that because the modelling based on incomplete data told him that. Wrong assumptions were made due to incomplete data and predicted things to be a lot worse than than are (albeit bad in NYC).

Which is why one of the top focuses of the government should be on trying to get as much data and sampling as possible, so that the proper reaction and planning can take place. There has been a failure at all levels on testing from day 1.
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CLA327
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In reply to Wayland • 11:04a, 4/6/20
Part of the problem with lack of testing.....

DR. BIRX: It is disappointing to me right now that we have about 500,000 capacity of Abbott tests that are not being utilized. So they are out. They're in the states. They're not being run and not utilized......

Why aren't the tests being utilized? The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) are standing in the way. The CDC has extremely restrictive criteria regarding who should be tested. The only ones with high priority are:
[ol]
  • Hospitalized patients.
  • Those who are in long-term care facilities with symptoms.
  • Those who are 65 years of age or older with symptoms.
  • Those with underlying conditions with symptoms.
  • First responders with symptoms.
    • [/ol]Additional people can receive testing, but only if resources allow. These include:
    [ol]
  • Critical infrastructure workers with symptoms.
  • Individuals who do not meet any of the above categories with symptoms.
  • Health care workers and first responders.
  • Individuals with mild symptoms in communities experiencing high COVID-19 hospitalizations.
    • [/ol]
    As well, the FDA has shut down at-home testing provided by numerous companies. Some of the tests had already been sent to FDA approved COVID-19 labs, but the FDA interceded and mandated that those tests be disposed of without analysis. And as of today, none of those companies have been permitted to resume at-home testing.
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    Wayland
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    In reply to Wayland • 11:09a, 4/6/20
    Wayland said:
    Wayland said:
    Wayland said:
    https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

    3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

    NC Cases*
    1,498
    NC Deaths**
    8
    Currently Hospitalized
    157

    4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

    NC Cases*
    1584
    NC Deaths**
    10
    Currently Hospitalized
    204


    4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

    NC Cases*
    1857
    NC Deaths**
    16
    Currently Hospitalized
    184

    4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)

    NC Cases*
    2093
    NC Deaths**
    19
    Currently Hospitalized
    259

    Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.

    15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
    2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
    2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)

    2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.
    4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

    NC Cases*
    2402
    NC Deaths**
    24
    Currently Hospitalized
    271

    Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?

    Congregate Data:
    6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.
    4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

    NC Cases*
    2585
    NC Deaths**
    31
    Currently Hospitalized
    261

    Deaths in NC
    26 > 65 years of age
    3 Between 50-64 years of age
    2 Between 25-49 years of age


    4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

    NC Cases*
    2870
    NC Deaths**
    33
    Currently Hospitalized
    270

    WRAL is reporting 39 (-2 for the two out of staters and 2 80 + year olds from this morning) leaves still 2 in a gap between media numbers and DHHS numbers. Hospitalizations remain pretty stable.

    Based on rough estimates and educated guesses based on DHHS numbers. Covid-19 accounts for less than 2% of all hospitalizations and 1% of ICU usage statewide.

    Fun fact to put more numbers in perspective. About 100,000 people die each year of all causes in North Carolina.

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    Pacfanweb
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    In reply to packgrad • 11:11a, 4/6/20
    packgrad said:
    As has the screaming that we don't have enough ventilators. Cuomo said he needed 30000. Looks like he won't need close to that. Probably not even half. It's why I don't take the claims that we will run out of the malaria treatment seriously.
    Yeah, and now I see folks talking about the lowered projections and saying "See? That's because of the stay at home orders"

    No, it's mostly because the projections weren't right to begin with.
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    Colonel Armstrong
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    In reply to Pacfanweb • 11:12a, 4/6/20
    Pacfanweb said:
    packgrad said:
    As has the screaming that we don't have enough ventilators. Cuomo said he needed 30000. Looks like he won't need close to that. Probably not even half. It's why I don't take the claims that we will run out of the malaria treatment seriously.
    Yeah, and now I see folks talking about the lowered projections and saying "See? That's because of the stay at home orders"

    No, it's mostly because the projections weren't right to begin with.
    Like most things in life, it's probably somewhere in the middle.

    The projections were wrong, but the stay at home orders prevented deaths due to Corona
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    Daviewolf83
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    In reply to Colonel Armstrong • 11:24a, 4/6/20
    Staff
    King Leary said:
    Pacfanweb said:
    packgrad said:
    As has the screaming that we don't have enough ventilators. Cuomo said he needed 30000. Looks like he won't need close to that. Probably not even half. It's why I don't take the claims that we will run out of the malaria treatment seriously.
    Yeah, and now I see folks talking about the lowered projections and saying "See? That's because of the stay at home orders"

    No, it's mostly because the projections weren't right to begin with.
    Like most things in life, it's probably somewhere in the middle.

    The projections were wrong, but the stay at home orders prevented deaths due to Corona
    I agree. Projections were definitely wrong, but they were the best we had at the time based on the data. If people spent some time looking at the actual curves (not the models) you would see the bending in the data. This is due to the stay at home orders, since we do not have a vaccine or treatments that prevent cases.

    For this wave, physical distancing will need to remain in place for the rest of this month and likely a couple of weeks into May for NC. For other States such as Virginia, they will be under restrictions for a longer period of time, since they were slow to implement restrictions.

    When the next wave hits, the physical distancing measures we took this time should not be implemented. We will have to come up with a better approach that does not destroy the economy. This will come from Test-and-Trace and a focus on protecting the most at risk portions of the population. I read an interesting article about what Sweden is doing and it, combined with Test-and-Trace might help to provide a roadmap for the next outbreak of this virus. I can tell you now that a full shutdown of the economy for the next wave will be rejected by the majority of the population. The US has one chance to do a total shutdown, so we best make the most of it.

    If you are interested, you can read about the Swedish approach here:

    Sweden Avoids Isolation Response to Coronavirus
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    wilmwolf
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    11:33a, 4/6/20
    I don't think the social distancing measures were wrong necessarily, but we'll likely never know. If the overall impact had gone up, people would just say it was because we didn't distance sooner. When they go down, it's proof that it worked. Until we have way more data on the virus, how it is transmitted, and the true lethality, it's really hard to know what actually works and what doesn't. If, as some scientists have speculated, the virus actually has a much higher transmission rate and much lower death rate than we currently think, then we may figure out that what we've done had little impact. Just too early with too little data to know with certainty.
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    packgrad
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    In reply to Colonel Armstrong • 12:07p, 4/6/20
    King Leary said:
    Pacfanweb said:
    packgrad said:
    As has the screaming that we don't have enough ventilators. Cuomo said he needed 30000. Looks like he won't need close to that. Probably not even half. It's why I don't take the claims that we will run out of the malaria treatment seriously.
    Yeah, and now I see folks talking about the lowered projections and saying "See? That's because of the stay at home orders"

    No, it's mostly because the projections weren't right to begin with.
    Like most things in life, it's probably somewhere in the middle.

    The projections were wrong, but the stay at home orders prevented deaths due to Corona


    Maybe they did. I think at the end of this there needs to be an evaluation of how many deaths it truly did cause though. I still feel that our reaction to this virus, NC in particular,is going to make the general public much more apathetic to future calls for pandemic quarantine.
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    RunsWithWolves26
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    12:28p, 4/6/20
    I believe social distancing has certainly worked. If this virus is as contagious as the experts say it is, then social distancing certainly made a difference. Hell, NC took steps sooner the NY, NJ, etc and it shows. If this virus is as contagious as the experts say it is, then it is obvious to anyone not looking at it from an agenda standpoint, to see that keeping distance from people slows the spread of this virus. That much is obvious. We will never know exactly how many it did save from being infected or dieing but for me, it's obvious it has helped to at least cut down on what could have been.
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    wilmwolf
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    In reply to RunsWithWolves26 • 12:44p, 4/6/20
    RunsWithWolves26 said:
    I believe social distancing has certainly worked. If this virus is as contagious as the experts say it is, then social distancing certainly made a difference. Hell, NC took steps sooner the NY, NJ, etc and it shows. If this virus is as contagious as the experts say it is, then it is obvious to anyone not looking at it from an agenda standpoint, to see that keeping distance from people slows the spread of this virus. That much is obvious. We will never know exactly how many it did save from being infected or dieing but for me, it's obvious it has helped to at least cut down on what could have been.
    It's really hard though to compare the spread here though versus New York and the like because of population density. In places like NYC, it's unlikely any measures would work, people are crammed in too tight. And social distancing has never been about preventing death. It has always been about slowing it down so that the hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Without a cure or a vaccine, it will continue to spread around the country, and those that are vulnerable will continue to die. That might take 12-18 months instead of two, but it will happen. I don't personally have an agenda, and I'm following all the guidelines and have been since before the lockdown. There remains plenty of room to question how things have been done, and the opportunity cost of what has been done.
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    RunsWithWolves26
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    In reply to wilmwolf • 12:48p, 4/6/20
    wilmwolf80 said:
    RunsWithWolves26 said:
    I believe social distancing has certainly worked. If this virus is as contagious as the experts say it is, then social distancing certainly made a difference. Hell, NC took steps sooner the NY, NJ, etc and it shows. If this virus is as contagious as the experts say it is, then it is obvious to anyone not looking at it from an agenda standpoint, to see that keeping distance from people slows the spread of this virus. That much is obvious. We will never know exactly how many it did save from being infected or dieing but for me, it's obvious it has helped to at least cut down on what could have been.
    It's really hard though to compare the spread here though versus New York and the like because of population density. In places like NYC, it's unlikely any measures would work, people are crammed in too tight. And social distancing has never been about preventing death. It has always been about slowing it down so that the hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Without a cure or a vaccine, it will continue to spread around the country, and those that are vulnerable will continue to die. That might take 12-18 months instead of two, but it will happen. I don't personally have an agenda, and I'm following all the guidelines and have been since before the lockdown. There remains plenty of room to question how things have been done, and the opportunity cost of what has been done.


    Have no issue with questioning it. I guess a better comparison would be NC to VA. As Davie pointed out, we are looking a lot better right now compared to them.
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    packgrad
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    In reply to wilmwolf • 12:52p, 4/6/20
    Agreed. The only ones with an agenda, imo, would be the ones not wanting to question the deaths or our handling of the situation. I think a lot of times with politics, and this board, it has to do with who makes a statement as opposed to the statement made.
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    statefan91
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    1:16p, 4/6/20
    Despite the good news of the article about the UW team cutting their projections for NC, Charlotte Observer is out with an accompanying article talking about NC model shows that we'll have 750k potentially infected if we don't extend the stay at home order past end of April.

    I'm realistic, I know it's highly likely the order gets extended into May. I don't know how far into May it will go, but articles like this one don't really benefit anyone except driving additional hysteria and forcing Government leaders into decisions so as to not look bad.

    I have never been big on trashing the media, but I had to delete twitter and barely read the news right now because it's so frustrating to see doomsday articles being printed every day.

    https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article241797076.html?
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    Daviewolf83
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    In reply to packgrad • 1:17p, 4/6/20
    Staff
    packgrad said:
    Agreed. The only ones with an agenda, imo, would be the ones not wanting to question the deaths or our handling of the situation. I think a lot of times with politics, and this board, it has to do with who makes a statement as opposed to the statement made.
    I agree and I have tried to stay out of politics as it relates to this discussion. There is absolutely NO reason to introduce politics into the discussion or to look for who to blame at this point. In forums and social media, everyone divides up into their respective "tribes" and try to attack the views that do not agree with theirs. I try to stay open minded and consider other viewpoints and do not have problems admitting when I am wrong.

    From a political standpoint, there is plenty of blame to go around, on both sides. People from each "tribe" can cite where people from the other "tribe" messed up or have an opinion that does not agree with their "tribe's" opinion. In my posts, I have tried to offer facts to the best of my ability and to offer opinion and interpretations based on the facts and my knowledge about the subject. Others can offer counter opinions and facts and it does not hurt my feelings. It is how I grow as person and how I learn.

    One way I consume news is likely different from the way a lot of people do so in this country. I watch as many different news networks as possible. I follow people on Twitter who are rational, even when I do not agree with them politically. There is one in particular that I follow quite a bit. He has been way out in front on some of the thinking about the virus. I do not agree with his views on everything, but I read his Tweets and his articles and they make be consider my own views and beliefs.

    In the end, I find truth in the news in this way - I follow multiple news stories and articles from a variety of sources, where they agree - I belief this would be where the facts are found. Where they disagree - this is where you will find opinion. This is how I go about separating the two. I do not view CBS News, NBC News, Bloomberg News, The National Review, Fox News, etc to be evil or wrong if they do not agree with my worldview. I take it all in - I watch and read all of the places I listed, plus many others and then I use that to separate fact from opinion. It makes life a lot easier.

    I will continue to review the data, post articles I find interesting, and give my opinions on the way forward. I think we all can agree we are ready for this nightmare to be over and we all want to move forward as a nation and return to normal.

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    Wayland
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    In reply to wilmwolf • 1:20p, 4/6/20
    wilmwolf80 said:
    RunsWithWolves26 said:
    I believe social distancing has certainly worked. If this virus is as contagious as the experts say it is, then social distancing certainly made a difference. Hell, NC took steps sooner the NY, NJ, etc and it shows. If this virus is as contagious as the experts say it is, then it is obvious to anyone not looking at it from an agenda standpoint, to see that keeping distance from people slows the spread of this virus. That much is obvious. We will never know exactly how many it did save from being infected or dieing but for me, it's obvious it has helped to at least cut down on what could have been.
    It's really hard though to compare the spread here though versus New York and the like because of population density. In places like NYC, it's unlikely any measures would work, people are crammed in too tight. And social distancing has never been about preventing death. It has always been about slowing it down so that the hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Without a cure or a vaccine, it will continue to spread around the country, and those that are vulnerable will continue to die. That might take 12-18 months instead of two, but it will happen. I don't personally have an agenda, and I'm following all the guidelines and have been since before the lockdown. There remains plenty of room to question how things have been done, and the opportunity cost of what has been done.

    I think people REALLY underestimate the population density in these European cities. The average American hears Lombardy region and thinks Podunk, Italy. Lombardy region is Milan. If Milan was in the U.S. it would be the second most population dense city after NYC.

    Paris, Athens, Barcelona, Bucharest, Naples, Brussels, Turin, Copenhagen are just some of the other cities that would fall between NYC and San Francisco on the population density list.

    I think that was a huge factor in the quick escalation in Europe.
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    Daviewolf83
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    In reply to statefan91 • 1:21p, 4/6/20
    Staff
    statefan91 said:
    Despite the good news of the article about the UW team cutting their projections for NC, Charlotte Observer is out with an accompanying article talking about NC model shows that we'll have 750k potentially infected if we don't extend the stay at home order past end of April.

    I'm realistic, I know it's highly likely the order gets extended into May. I don't know how far into May it will go, but articles like this one don't really benefit anyone except driving additional hysteria and forcing Government leaders into decisions so as to not look bad.

    I have never been big on trashing the media, but I had to delete twitter and barely read the news right now because it's so frustrating to see doomsday articles being printed every day.

    https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article241797076.html?
    At this point, the government should be letting the facts govern what the policy will be going forward and not purely rely on the models. Despite what many of the models say, it is too early for them to be forecasting what we should be doing in May. I do agree that lockdowns into mid-May seem reasonable. However, we as a society are going to reach a point in the not to distant future where we have begin to open back up. It will be scary and the government needs to be making plans now as to how they are going to open the economy back up in the next month or so.
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    Wayland
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    In reply to statefan91 • 1:32p, 4/6/20
    statefan91 said:
    Despite the good news of the article about the UW team cutting their projections for NC, Charlotte Observer is out with an accompanying article talking about NC model shows that we'll have 750k potentially infected if we don't extend the stay at home order past end of April.

    I'm realistic, I know it's highly likely the order gets extended into May. I don't know how far into May it will go, but articles like this one don't really benefit anyone except driving additional hysteria and forcing Government leaders into decisions so as to not look bad.

    I have never been big on trashing the media, but I had to delete twitter and barely read the news right now because it's so frustrating to see doomsday articles being printed every day.

    https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article241797076.html?

    They get clicks based of the drama. Same reason they race to tally every possible Covid death on their death tracker counters.

    People are going to get sick and die, social distancing was never about people not getting sick and dying. It was about not overwhelming the hospital system and people dying as a result of not having access to care. Even Cuomo has started to move to that language. That it is not about the people dying as much as the people dying because they did not have access to the best possible resources

    NC is using a fraction of their resources right now. The sad reality is that we just need to pace the illness and deaths over a period of time that the hospital system can handle them.

    Which is why we need to get the data and clearest picture about how widespread it is and how to track outbreaks quickly to manage that balance of resource and illness (and limit outbreaks as much as possible).

    NC is using 1-2% of its hospital beds/ICUs on Covid-19. 100,000 people die a year in NC, many of them elderly, some of them not. Every death is a tragedy. It is a HARD hard conversation to have, and some compartmentalization has to take place. I am not saying it doesn't suck or isn't a crisis but it also doesn't exist in a vacuum.
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    wilmwolf
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    In reply to Daviewolf83 • 1:40p, 4/6/20
    I do the same thing regarding news. If you're only getting news from one source, you aren't getting the news.
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    PossumJenkins
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    1:49p, 4/6/20
    So we have or have had 2900 confirmed cases in NC and this model is predicting 750k in a month? Even the 250k number in the article is exorbitant at the current infection rate. Someone might wanna go back and look at their math.

    Agreed. Articles like this do nothing in the form of informing and only stoke fear. As Davie said, policy at this point sure be driven by facts and not models
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    redsteel33
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    2:13p, 4/6/20
    Can we have a COVID thread where only Daviewolf83 posts? jk - sort of.

    I skip some posts but I read all of his...
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    Packchem91
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    In reply to Daviewolf83 • 2:42p, 4/6/20
    Daviewolf83 said:
    packgrad said:
    Agreed. The only ones with an agenda, imo, would be the ones not wanting to question the deaths or our handling of the situation. I think a lot of times with politics, and this board, it has to do with who makes a statement as opposed to the statement made.
    I agree and I have tried to stay out of politics as it relates to this discussion. There is absolutely NO reason to introduce politics into the discussion or to look for who to blame at this point. In forums and social media, everyone divides up into their respective "tribes" and try to attack the views that do not agree with theirs. I try to stay open minded and consider other viewpoints and do not have problems admitting when I am wrong.

    From a political standpoint, there is plenty of blame to go around, on both sides. People from each "tribe" can cite where people from the other "tribe" messed up or have an opinion that does not agree with their "tribe's" opinion. In my posts, I have tried to offer facts to the best of my ability and to offer opinion and interpretations based on the facts and my knowledge about the subject. Others can offer counter opinions and facts and it does not hurt my feelings. It is how I grow as person and how I learn.

    One way I consume news is likely different from the way a lot of people do so in this country. I watch as many different news networks as possible. I follow people on Twitter who are rational, even when I do not agree with them politically. There is one in particular that I follow quite a bit. He has been way out in front on some of the thinking about the virus. I do not agree with his views on everything, but I read his Tweets and his articles and they make be consider my own views and beliefs.

    In the end, I find truth in the news in this way - I follow multiple news stories and articles from a variety of sources, where they agree - I belief this would be where the facts are found. Where they disagree - this is where you will find opinion. This is how I go about separating the two. I do not view CBS News, NBC News, Bloomberg News, The National Review, Fox News, etc to be evil or wrong if they do not agree with my worldview. I take it all in - I watch and read all of the places I listed, plus many others and then I use that to separate fact from opinion. It makes life a lot easier.

    I will continue to review the data, post articles I find interesting, and give my opinions on the way forward. I think we all can agree we are ready for this nightmare to be over and we all want to move forward as a nation and return to normal.

    Great great post. Something we can all be mindful of for perspective. We are all wrong from time to time. Best way to limit that is looking at multiple inputs rather than just one source.

    **Regarding your first para about pursuing blame at this point, with which I 100% agree....the problem is, with everyone already hyped up beyond any normal sensitivity level, it does not help when 2 out of every 3 questions at the daily POTUS pressers is a "gotcha" question about something he said 6 weeks ago.

    Hey...bring those up in July, this fall, etc...when we look back and try to ensure we are better prepared next time (and/or hold people who really dropped the ball this time, accountable).but for now, it does not one bit of good except stir the pot and create additional angst. Completely unnecessary.
    And distracts from what should be the purpose of that availability of decision makers, to get perspective on where things are headed.
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    Wayland
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    2:49p, 4/6/20
    New brief from the state. Sadly, while not commissioned by the state, this is the study that our DHHS loves.

    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6825739-NC-Covid-Brief-1-4-6-20.html

    Looks like where Charlotte Observer got their crazy modelling numbers.

    NC may need to add some NC State people to the crazy Duke and UNC people that put together these models. If the infection rate on June 1 is 250,000 with current measures staying in place then the fatality rate is so low time to open up.

    Even on their whacked out charts, they only predict a 50% chance to exceed capacity if all restrictions are lifted May 1. I'd love to seem some of their actual inputs.

    Most the cited data in their report is over 2 weeks old. The State's newly released guidance is already WAY OUTDATED.

    "
    11 Ferguson NM, Laydon D, Gemma NG., et al. Impact of NPIs to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. March 16, 2020.
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    14 CDC COVID-19 Response Team. MMWR, March 26, 2020; 69(12): 343-346. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

    17 Li W., Guan X., Wu P., et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus infected pneumonia. January 29, 2020.
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
    18 Ma S., Zhang J., Zeng M., et al. Epidemiological parameters of coronavirus disease 2019: a pooled analysis of publicly reported individual data of 1155 cases from seven
    countries. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/03/24/2020.03.21.20040329.full.pdf?%253fcollection
    19 Muniz-Rodriguez K., Chun-Hai Fung, I., Ferdosi S., et. al. Transmission potential of COVID-19 in Iran. March 10, 2020.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.08.20030643v1
    "

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    packgrad
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    In reply to Wayland • 2:59p, 4/6/20
    Infection rate would have to go up 247000 in the next 2 months. Ridiculous.

    Holy cow on the dated data. Even more ridiculous.
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    statefan91
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    In reply to Wayland • 3:08p, 4/6/20
    Is #11 that Imperial model that was shown to be extremely out of whack near the end of the month?
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    CLA327
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    3:09p, 4/6/20
    https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-drug-covid-19-malaria-hydroxychloroquine/6079864/

    A Los Angeles doctor said he is seeing significant success in prescribing the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine in combination with zinc to treat patients with severe symptoms of COVID-19.

    Dr. Anthony Cardillo said he has seen very promising results when prescribing hydroxychloroquine in combination with zinc for the most severely-ill COVID-19 patients.

    "Every patient I've prescribed it to has been very, very ill and within 8 to 12 hours, they were basically symptom-free," Cardillo told Eyewitness News. "So clinically I am seeing a resolution."
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    PossumJenkins
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    3:10p, 4/6/20
    I'm moving to Sweden
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    Wayland
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    In reply to statefan91 • 3:10p, 4/6/20
    statefan91 said:
    Is #11 that Imperial model that was shown to be extremely out of whack near the end of the month?

    It looks like it to me. This UNC/Duke study is trash and our state leaders think it has value. Their inputs are already ridiculously outdated.

    I doubt anyone will call them out on being crap.
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    Daviewolf83
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    In reply to Wayland • 3:25p, 4/6/20
    Staff
    Wayland said:
    New brief from the state. Sadly, while not commissioned by the state, this is the study that our DHHS loves.

    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6825739-NC-Covid-Brief-1-4-6-20.html

    Looks like where Charlotte Observer got their crazy modelling numbers.

    NC may need to add some NC State people to the crazy Duke and UNC people that put together these models. If the infection rate on June 1 is 250,000 with current measures staying in place then the fatality rate is so low time to open up.

    Even on their whacked out charts, they only predict a 50% chance to exceed capacity if all restrictions are lifted May 1. I'd love to seem some of their actual inputs.

    Most the cited data in their report is over 2 weeks old. The State's newly released guidance is already WAY OUTDATED.

    "
    11 Ferguson NM, Laydon D, Gemma NG., et al. Impact of NPIs to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. March 16, 2020.
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    14 CDC COVID-19 Response Team. MMWR, March 26, 2020; 69(12): 343-346. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

    17 Li W., Guan X., Wu P., et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus infected pneumonia. January 29, 2020.
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
    18 Ma S., Zhang J., Zeng M., et al. Epidemiological parameters of coronavirus disease 2019: a pooled analysis of publicly reported individual data of 1155 cases from seven
    countries. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/03/24/2020.03.21.20040329.full.pdf?%253fcollection
    19 Muniz-Rodriguez K., Chun-Hai Fung, I., Ferdosi S., et. al. Transmission potential of COVID-19 in Iran. March 10, 2020.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.08.20030643v1
    "

    Wayland - Thanks again for posting the link. I wish I had not read it, but it is interesting to see the guidance that is influencing our State leadership. The key premise of the paper seems to be this - The best and only way to control the virus is to maintain social distancing into the future.

    While I am sure very smart people who are familiar with public health policy put this together, it seems to be lacking in its discussion of alternatives to social distancing as a method of flattening the curve. The thing missing most is a deep discussion of the benefits of Test-and-Trace methodologies as a way to get out of the severe social distancing policies.

    Additionally, the article I pointed to this morning regarding Sweden and the actions they are taken is completely ignored. Opposed to focusing on protecting the most vulnerable with Testing and Contact Tracing, they are going at it with the assumption that everyone is infected and as a result, everyone must self-quarantine. I am sorry, but this is not a good long-term solution and is not sustainable. They mention the unsustainable nature of the current policy, but offer no other alternatives.

    The media either does not understand the right questions to ask or they do not care to dig into the analysis and ask the appropriate questions. If they continue the current policies beyond the end of June, I believe people will begin to disregard the stay-at-home policies and will resume normal life. This is why the State of NC needs to be working now to have policies ready to go by the end of June that do not require massive lockdowns and further disruption to the state's economy. They will need to find a way to reopen businesses in July and beyond, a way to reopen schools, and a way to begin offering general services again. They have time now to put those plans in place. Waiting until June or July to make those plans will be too late.
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    packgrad
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    In reply to Daviewolf83 • 3:29p, 4/6/20
    I'm not sure there could be a better argument that social distancing DOES NOT work if we go from less than 3000 infected to 250,000 infected in less than 2 months.
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    Wayland
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    In reply to Daviewolf83 • 3:36p, 4/6/20
    Daviewolf83 said:
    Wayland said:
    New brief from the state. Sadly, while not commissioned by the state, this is the study that our DHHS loves.

    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6825739-NC-Covid-Brief-1-4-6-20.html

    Looks like where Charlotte Observer got their crazy modelling numbers.

    NC may need to add some NC State people to the crazy Duke and UNC people that put together these models. If the infection rate on June 1 is 250,000 with current measures staying in place then the fatality rate is so low time to open up.

    Even on their whacked out charts, they only predict a 50% chance to exceed capacity if all restrictions are lifted May 1. I'd love to seem some of their actual inputs.

    Most the cited data in their report is over 2 weeks old. The State's newly released guidance is already WAY OUTDATED.

    "
    11 Ferguson NM, Laydon D, Gemma NG., et al. Impact of NPIs to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. March 16, 2020.
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    14 CDC COVID-19 Response Team. MMWR, March 26, 2020; 69(12): 343-346. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

    17 Li W., Guan X., Wu P., et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus infected pneumonia. January 29, 2020.
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
    18 Ma S., Zhang J., Zeng M., et al. Epidemiological parameters of coronavirus disease 2019: a pooled analysis of publicly reported individual data of 1155 cases from seven
    countries. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/03/24/2020.03.21.20040329.full.pdf?%253fcollection
    19 Muniz-Rodriguez K., Chun-Hai Fung, I., Ferdosi S., et. al. Transmission potential of COVID-19 in Iran. March 10, 2020.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.08.20030643v1
    "

    Wayland - Thanks again for posting the link. I wish I had not read it, but it is interesting to see the guidance that is influencing our State leadership. The key premise of the paper seems to be this - The best and only way to control the virus is to maintain social distancing into the future.

    While I am sure very smart people who are familiar with public health policy put this together, it seems to be lacking in its discussion of alternatives to social distancing as a method of flattening the curve. The thing missing most is a deep discussion of the benefits of Test-and-Trace methodologies as a way to get out of the severe social distancing policies.

    Additionally, the article I pointed to this morning regarding Sweden and the actions they are taken is completely ignored. Opposed to focusing on protecting the most vulnerable with Testing and Contact Tracing, they are going at it with the assumption that everyone is infected and as a result, everyone must self-quarantine. I am sorry, but this is not a good long-term solution and is not sustainable. They mention the unsustainable nature of the current policy, but offer no other alternatives.

    The media either does not understand the right questions to ask or they do not care to dig into the analysis and ask the appropriate questions. If they continue the current policies beyond the end of June, I believe people will begin to disregard the stay-at-home policies and will resume normal life. This is why the State of NC needs to be working now to have policies ready to go by the end of June that do not require massive lockdowns and further disruption to the state's economy. They will need to find a way to reopen businesses in July and beyond, a way to reopen schools, and a way to begin offering general services again. They have time now to put those plans in place. Waiting until June or July to make those plans will be too late.

    Exactly. Just adds to my frustration. Their Exceeding Capacity probability graphs are comical, that if restrictions are lifted April 30, we will basically go instantaneously from a 10% chance to exceed capacity to a 50% chance to exceed capacity and then sit there and never go higher.

    No one takes a second glance at any of this, or asks any questions. They just go for the sound bites. I am sure there was a super dumbed down power point to go with this for the policy makers.
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    Packchem91
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    In reply to packgrad • 3:53p, 4/6/20
    packgrad said:
    I'm not sure there could be a better argument that social distancing DOES NOT work if we go from less than 3000 infected to 250,000 infected in less than 2 months.
    Haa...yeah, its like no one looked at that report with any sort of QA lens. I posted this just for Mecklenburg County from Friday, which to me, looks similarly suspicious. With social distancing already in place for couple of weeks, it references if curve not flattened, would have 8900 hospitalizations (whats that, 75k cases??) in just 3 weeks? That makes zero sense (or....should be the cause of widespread panic).

    So these #s for Meck County seem very concerning. Data is from the Meck County officials to Brett Jensen, a reporter here in CLT.
    Earlier today, it was 560 cases in Meck, next most in area was 60 in Union and 56 in Cabarrus, which are certainly low by comparison to other similarly sized states.

    But then he tweeted that officials are suggesting, if curve is not flattened....

    in late april, 8900 hospitalized, 3300 in ICU, and 1600 on ventilators.

    If flattened, peak is in mid-May, and 4700 hospitalized, 1700 in ICU, and 850 on ventilators.

    Those are huge #s, considering where things stand today. Not sure how many cases that suggests, but hospitalizations have been, what 10-20% of cases?
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    RunsWithWolves26
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    4:32p, 4/6/20
    Almost 1.9 million test done so far. Sitting at just below 1.6 million negative test results. Should be over 2 million test tomorrow. Looks like numbers will be up today from yesterday's numbers in terms of total cases and possibly deaths. I sort of expected that based on how low yesterday's total new cases were. Hoping to see a leveling off by the end of the week in total new cases and possibly a leveling off of daily deaths by the middle of next week. Not sure if that is to optimistic or not but here's to hoping.
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    Daviewolf83
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    In reply to RunsWithWolves26 • 4:43p, 4/6/20
    Staff
    RunsWithWolves26 said:
    Almost 1.9 million test done so far. Sitting at just below 1.6 million negative test results. Should be over 2 million test tomorrow. Looks like numbers will be up today from yesterday's numbers in terms of total cases and possibly deaths. I sort of expected that based on how low yesterday's total new cases were. Hoping to see a leveling off by the end of the week in total new cases and possibly a leveling off of daily deaths by the middle of next week. Not sure if that is to optimistic or not but here's to hoping.
    I do not believe you are being too optimistic. For example, in NY deaths have been effectively flat for two straight days. Curves for NC are starting to show a slowing in the growth of number of daily new cases. Despite what the NC government officials want to you to believe, there is reason for some optimism.
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    Wayland
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    5:04p, 4/6/20
    Per usual, nobody called out the DHHS secretary when she rattled of the 250,000 and 750,000 numbers in her presser today.

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    ciscopack
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    In reply to packgrad • 5:18p, 4/6/20
    packgrad said:
    I'm not sure there could be a better argument that social distancing DOES NOT work if we go from less than 3000 infected to 250,000 infected in less than 2 months.
    You're in the 3rd grade? Correct? If you shake hands with 10,846 people who do not have CV-19....you will not get it! If you hang out with 1 person that does not know he/she has it but they do.....you'll likely get it unless you've already had it....even then, you may get it again. That is a fact. The states that don't have shelter in place....our border will stop that because CV-19 can't hang with borders. Even in places like NC....if 2-3 people get it that are pretty much business as usual; they will likely pass it! Social distancing is helping but we very well may be too stupid!!! The other side is when everyone is immune........an inoculation that works; not something someone dreams of working..
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