Coronavirus
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The model itself is likely fairly sound (it is based on a flu model), but the issue is the data to feed the model is not good. I believe they have had a difficult time getting "clean" data, which makes it hard to be as accurate as they would like. For example, up until this morning, there was a note on the website for the model, saying it would be updated with new data as of 4/4. This morning, the note was removed from the website and the model has not been updated since 4/1.packgrad said:
I did find an error in their death numbers (compared to the official numbers reported for NC) and sent an email to the owners of the model, informing them of the error and what the corrections should be. This model is one of the key ones I have been tracking, since it was one of the primary ones used by the taskforce last week when they recommended an extension to the lockdown.
I made a copy of the data from the date when the lockdown extension was made and have been tracking the actual and total death rates against it for NC. As of today, NC is tracking to the lower confidence interval for both daily deaths and total deaths. I do not have enough actual data yet with regards to deaths to comment on how accurate the model has been.
Sound alike Boris Johnson isn't doing very well fighting this virus. Hope he recovers quickly.
I cannot handle this shelter in place with two young kids at home and trying to work. All the smart people working on this need to figure out something quickly.
He's a doctor/scientist and he likes to know something works before giving it to everyone. He wants the data.packgrad said:
Why is Fauci so against the malaria treatment? It is being used with success around the world, but he refuses to embrace it. Wonder why...
Yeah I have a couple of moms with young kids who work with me. I feel for folks with the young kids at home now. And it makes me feel even more so for the single parents out there....fighting all this stress AND having to do so as a single parent must be horrible.statefan91 said:
I cannot handle this shelter in place with two young kids at home and trying to work. All the smart people working on this need to figure out something quickly.
That's good and all, but we don't have time for him to be 100% sure. He doesn't have a problem shutting everything down without being certain.
Packchem91 said:Yeah I have a couple of moms with young kids who work with me. I feel for folks with the young kids at home now. And it makes me feel even more so for the single parents out there....fighting all this stress AND having to do so as a single parent must be horrible.statefan91 said:
I cannot handle this shelter in place with two young kids at home and trying to work. All the smart people working on this need to figure out something quickly.
For sure - I have a great partner who honestly has much better patience with them than I do. Mine are 1.5 and 4.5 so can't really let them do their own thing and it's just a constant state of need. Not a good combination when trying to work a FT job still
Kerosene or Laudanum might work too? He's not stopping anyone from taking the drug...I think he does want critical Lupus patients to get their prescription? I know one guy at the CDC said that maybe he had a natural ability on March 6; he's prescribed it several times and I'd want it if push came to shove. Drugs made to combat it and vaccines are not out yet.packgrad said:
That's good and all, but we don't have time for him to be 100% sure. He doesn't have a problem shutting everything down without being certain.
ciscopack said:Kerosene or Laudanum might work too? He's not stopping anyone from taking the drug...I think he does want critical Lupus patients to get their prescription? I know one guy at the CDC said that maybe he had a natural ability on March 6; he's prescribed it several times and I'd want it if push came to shove. Drugs made to combat it and vaccines are not out yet.packgrad said:
That's good and all, but we don't have time for him to be 100% sure. He doesn't have a problem shutting everything down without being certain.
That's a ridiculous comparison. Italy is using it successfully. Sure if there's another solution, use that too. The lupus nonsense is more fear mongering. I think people aren't looking for a solution, just hysteria. Social distancing is going to come to an end sooner than later. People are not going to remain locked in their homes, especially in states like ours where we don't have the deaths to warrant it.
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packgrad said:ciscopack said:Kerosene or Laudanum might work too? He's not stopping anyone from taking the drug...I think he does want critical Lupus patients to get their prescription? I know one guy at the CDC said that maybe he had a natural ability on March 6; he's prescribed it several times and I'd want it if push came to shove. Drugs made to combat it and vaccines are not out yet.packgrad said:
That's good and all, but we don't have time for him to be 100% sure. He doesn't have a problem shutting everything down without being certain.
That's a ridiculous comparison. Italy is using it successfully. Sure if there's another solution, use that too. The lupus nonsense is more fear mongering. I think people aren't looking for a solution, just hysteria. Social distancing is going to come to an end sooner than later. People are not going to remain locked in their homes, especially in states like ours where we don't have the deaths to warrant it.
https://rheumatology.medicinematters.com/covid-19/infection/rheumatologists-urge-caution-on-chloroquine-hydroxychloroquine/17862288
I'm not sure the results in Italy are as great as some people have been making them out to be. I think that has already been pointed out. Many and perhaps a large majority of the people it's been prescribed to where already on the way to recovery and the global supply of the drug is dwindling when combined with the needs others have for the drug.
JamesJohnson said:packgrad said:ciscopack said:Kerosene or Laudanum might work too? He's not stopping anyone from taking the drug...I think he does want critical Lupus patients to get their prescription? I know one guy at the CDC said that maybe he had a natural ability on March 6; he's prescribed it several times and I'd want it if push came to shove. Drugs made to combat it and vaccines are not out yet.packgrad said:
That's good and all, but we don't have time for him to be 100% sure. He doesn't have a problem shutting everything down without being certain.
That's a ridiculous comparison. Italy is using it successfully. Sure if there's another solution, use that too. The lupus nonsense is more fear mongering. I think people aren't looking for a solution, just hysteria. Social distancing is going to come to an end sooner than later. People are not going to remain locked in their homes, especially in states like ours where we don't have the deaths to warrant it.
https://rheumatology.medicinematters.com/covid-19/infection/rheumatologists-urge-caution-on-chloroquine-hydroxychloroquine/17862288
I'm not sure the results in Italy are as great as some people have been making them out to be. I think that has already been pointed out. Many and perhaps a large majority of the people it's been prescribed to where already on the way to recovery and the global supply of the drug is dwindling when combined with the needs others have for the drug.
Italy and France started widely prescribing it 3 weeks after that article was written. I'd guess they got some positive feedback suggesting it wasn't only people on their way to recovery.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/coronavirus-fauci-warns-americans-shouldnt-assume-hydroxychloroquine-is-a-knockout-drug.htmlpackgrad said:ciscopack said:Kerosene or Laudanum might work too? He's not stopping anyone from taking the drug...I think he does want critical Lupus patients to get their prescription? I know one guy at the CDC said that maybe he had a natural ability on March 6; he's prescribed it several times and I'd want it if push came to shove. Drugs made to combat it and vaccines are not out yet.packgrad said:
That's good and all, but we don't have time for him to be 100% sure. He doesn't have a problem shutting everything down without being certain.
That's a ridiculous comparison. Italy is using it successfully. Sure if there's another solution, use that too. The lupus nonsense is more fear mongering. I think people aren't looking for a solution, just hysteria. Social distancing is going to come to an end sooner than later. People are not going to remain locked in their homes, especially in states like ours where we don't have the deaths to warrant it.
Some people say they would not wear masks and then they and all the people around them get checked daily and get their temperatures checked like the people in China were doing in February....people on the streets in China with masks on
I don't mean this towards you or about your feeling on the matter. This quote is why the media is so against this treatment working.
"President Donald Trump has said chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine could be a "game-changer," "
"President Donald Trump has said chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine could be a "game-changer," "
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packgrad said:JamesJohnson said:packgrad said:ciscopack said:Kerosene or Laudanum might work too? He's not stopping anyone from taking the drug...I think he does want critical Lupus patients to get their prescription? I know one guy at the CDC said that maybe he had a natural ability on March 6; he's prescribed it several times and I'd want it if push came to shove. Drugs made to combat it and vaccines are not out yet.packgrad said:
That's good and all, but we don't have time for him to be 100% sure. He doesn't have a problem shutting everything down without being certain.
That's a ridiculous comparison. Italy is using it successfully. Sure if there's another solution, use that too. The lupus nonsense is more fear mongering. I think people aren't looking for a solution, just hysteria. Social distancing is going to come to an end sooner than later. People are not going to remain locked in their homes, especially in states like ours where we don't have the deaths to warrant it.
https://rheumatology.medicinematters.com/covid-19/infection/rheumatologists-urge-caution-on-chloroquine-hydroxychloroquine/17862288
I'm not sure the results in Italy are as great as some people have been making them out to be. I think that has already been pointed out. Many and perhaps a large majority of the people it's been prescribed to where already on the way to recovery and the global supply of the drug is dwindling when combined with the needs others have for the drug.
Italy and France started widely prescribing it 3 weeks after that article was written. I'd guess they got some positive feedback suggesting it wasn't only people on their way to recovery.
I mean there's newer articles if you really want them and the limit scope trail from China where 15 people were prescribed and 15 weren't. After a week 14 who weren't prescribed were negative and and 13 who were prescribed were negative. So while statistically insignificant it doesn't seem to indicate that the drug works wonders.
The newer stuff from Italy is promising but the drug is supposed to be used early in treatment (from what I have read that's when Italy is using it) so again I don't think its pulling people off the death bed and it isn't proven to stop the spread. Also the supply has quickly dwindled.
https://www.mdmag.com/medical-news/limited-supply-chloroquine-hydroxychloroquine-covid-19-use
Even some of the docs prescribing it still have questions despite seeing good results. Not sure why you think a guy on Fauci's position would be so quick to call it a cure.
JamesJohnson said:packgrad said:JamesJohnson said:packgrad said:ciscopack said:Kerosene or Laudanum might work too? He's not stopping anyone from taking the drug...I think he does want critical Lupus patients to get their prescription? I know one guy at the CDC said that maybe he had a natural ability on March 6; he's prescribed it several times and I'd want it if push came to shove. Drugs made to combat it and vaccines are not out yet.packgrad said:
That's good and all, but we don't have time for him to be 100% sure. He doesn't have a problem shutting everything down without being certain.
That's a ridiculous comparison. Italy is using it successfully. Sure if there's another solution, use that too. The lupus nonsense is more fear mongering. I think people aren't looking for a solution, just hysteria. Social distancing is going to come to an end sooner than later. People are not going to remain locked in their homes, especially in states like ours where we don't have the deaths to warrant it.
https://rheumatology.medicinematters.com/covid-19/infection/rheumatologists-urge-caution-on-chloroquine-hydroxychloroquine/17862288
I'm not sure the results in Italy are as great as some people have been making them out to be. I think that has already been pointed out. Many and perhaps a large majority of the people it's been prescribed to where already on the way to recovery and the global supply of the drug is dwindling when combined with the needs others have for the drug.
Italy and France started widely prescribing it 3 weeks after that article was written. I'd guess they got some positive feedback suggesting it wasn't only people on their way to recovery.
I mean there's newer articles if you really want them and the limit scope trail from China where 15 people were prescribed and 15 weren't. After a week 14 who weren't prescribed were negative and and 13 who were prescribed were negative. So while statistically insignificant it doesn't seem to indicate that the drug works wonders.
The newer stuff from Italy is promising but the drug is supposed to be used early in treatment (from what I have read that's when Italy is using it) so again I don't think its pulling people off the death bed and it isn't proven to stop the spread. Also the supply has quickly dwindled.
https://www.mdmag.com/medical-news/limited-supply-chloroquine-hydroxychloroquine-covid-19-use
I think we don't need to trust any information from China on the matter. If it is to be used early in treatment then that's what we do. Because it doesn't work after someone has to be intubated doesn't mean we shouldn't use it early. Additionally, it's never been said to stop the spread.
I never said Fauci should call it a cure...... interesting you edited to put that in.
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packgrad said:
I never said Fauci should call it a cure...... interesting you edited to put that in.
In the flow of conversation, I took part of Cisco's response to you as something you actually said by accident. So I apologize for that but I could not care less if you think its interesting I edited to put it in there.
Lol. Ok. Good talk.
10,000 less new cases today then yesterday. Not a trend but sure is nice to see for one day at least
Was just going to post that. Drop in new cases and deaths. Reporting tends to be off on the weekends so will see if that continues through Tuesday.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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packgrad said:
Lol. Ok. Good talk.
I am curious why you think Fauci is against the treatment? You did ask that question earlier or am I mistaken again.
I said I wonder why. And I do. I get not having concrete info, but it's not certain his recommendations work either.
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packgrad said:
I said I wonder why. And I do. I get not having concrete info, but it's not certain his recommendations work either.
That's fair enough. If I misread or misinterpreted apologies once again.
Hopefully the trails that started recently here prove it to be highly effective and then we find a way to get it produced in sufficient quantities.
Where did he say he was against it?
The media I watch are talking to doctors and scientist....they are who I listen to, not some fruitcake running their mouth. Everyone I've seen tell what that medicine is made for and say it may work but they won't know until trials are done. In other words, a lot of people are taking it to find out. From what I saw about 3 weeks ago, at times they put antibiotics with it which attack bacteria, not a virus. I assume there must be a reason there too?packgrad said:
I don't mean this towards you or about your feeling on the matter. This quote is why the media is so against this treatment working.
"President Donald Trump has said chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine could be a "game-changer," "
I heard one cat today talking about building roads quicker.....talking about the asphalt. There's a good bit to be done before you get to the asphalt!!!
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I finally had a chance to look at the latest graphs tonight and I am seeing some positive trends starting to appear for NC. These are:
1) Looking at the New Cases per Day (logarithmic plot), it appears the percentage change in the growth of new cases per day is starting to show some flattening. If it stays flat, this will be good news. It means the total number of new cases from day to day is not increasing.
2) Looking at a plot of Total Cases (logarithmic plot), it appears the rate of change day to day is starting to flatten. It is not flat yet, but the bend of the curve indicates it is starting to flatten out. I would estimate that in the next three days or so, it could flatten, if it stays on its current trajectory.
3) Death rates are still increasing, but this is to be expected, since it is a lagging indicator of cases.
Focusing on NY, since it has been the epicenter to date in the US, I am seeing some good news as well:
1) For New Cases per Day (logarithmic plot), the curve has been flat for the past 3 or so days. As I said above regarding NC, this is a very good sign.
2) Looking at the change in Total Cases (logarithmic plot), the curve is definitely bending and if the current trajectory holds, it could flatten in just a few days - definitely this week if people keep up the physical distancing measures.
3) Looking at Cumulative Deaths (logarithmic plot), the curve is also starting to bend, but not as much as the Total Cases curve. This is not unexpected, since Deaths will lag by 5 to 7 days. I do think (as some of the experts have been saying today), NY could hit a peak in number of cases and deaths by the end of this week. The bad news is this week will be very rough for the people of NY. We really need to pray that our healthcare workers are able to save as many people as possible.
I did look at a couple of other hotspots in the US and the numbers, while trailing New York, are encouraging as well. All of this shows evidence that the measures enacted two weeks ago for New York and a week ago for North Carolina are having an effect. I believe New York is about a week ahead of NC in seeing improvement, but NC is showing good results. Everyone needs to keep it up and please do not get complacent.
1) Looking at the New Cases per Day (logarithmic plot), it appears the percentage change in the growth of new cases per day is starting to show some flattening. If it stays flat, this will be good news. It means the total number of new cases from day to day is not increasing.
2) Looking at a plot of Total Cases (logarithmic plot), it appears the rate of change day to day is starting to flatten. It is not flat yet, but the bend of the curve indicates it is starting to flatten out. I would estimate that in the next three days or so, it could flatten, if it stays on its current trajectory.
3) Death rates are still increasing, but this is to be expected, since it is a lagging indicator of cases.
Focusing on NY, since it has been the epicenter to date in the US, I am seeing some good news as well:
1) For New Cases per Day (logarithmic plot), the curve has been flat for the past 3 or so days. As I said above regarding NC, this is a very good sign.
2) Looking at the change in Total Cases (logarithmic plot), the curve is definitely bending and if the current trajectory holds, it could flatten in just a few days - definitely this week if people keep up the physical distancing measures.
3) Looking at Cumulative Deaths (logarithmic plot), the curve is also starting to bend, but not as much as the Total Cases curve. This is not unexpected, since Deaths will lag by 5 to 7 days. I do think (as some of the experts have been saying today), NY could hit a peak in number of cases and deaths by the end of this week. The bad news is this week will be very rough for the people of NY. We really need to pray that our healthcare workers are able to save as many people as possible.
I did look at a couple of other hotspots in the US and the numbers, while trailing New York, are encouraging as well. All of this shows evidence that the measures enacted two weeks ago for New York and a week ago for North Carolina are having an effect. I believe New York is about a week ahead of NC in seeing improvement, but NC is showing good results. Everyone needs to keep it up and please do not get complacent.
All good here. I hope so as well. We need people getting back to work.
IHME finally updated their stats.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Now project NC to peak in a week with 30 deaths per day and total 496 deaths. I still don't think we will get to 30 a day the way we have been trending (unless there is a congregate situation that blows up)
Lowered the overall US number into to just over 80,000.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Now project NC to peak in a week with 30 deaths per day and total 496 deaths. I still don't think we will get to 30 a day the way we have been trending (unless there is a congregate situation that blows up)
Lowered the overall US number into to just over 80,000.
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Thanks for posting this Wayland. I checked last night and they had not updated the models, even though they said they would update them on 4/4. The update posted overnight is likely the update they originally said they would be providing on 4/4, since the actual death numbers are the actual numbers through 4/3.Wayland said:
IHME finally updated their stats.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Now project NC to peak in a week with 30 deaths per day and total 496 deaths. I still don't think we will get to 30 a day the way we have been trending (unless there is a congregate situation that blows up)
Lowered the overall US number into to just over 80,000.
I plan to track this new 4/4 model to see how it does against actual deaths, in addition to continuing to track the 3/29 model projections. Comparing the the 3/29 model to the 4/4 model, a couple of things jump out as it relates to NC. These are:
1) The maximum total number of deaths is much lower in the new model (just as it is for the national numbers). The 3/29 model forecast the Mean Total Deaths to reach 1,721. The 4/4 model now forecasts the Mean Total Deaths to reach 496. This is a substantial decrease in the mean number of deaths.
2) The lower confidence total deaths are also substantially changed.The 3/29 model forecast the Lower Limit Total Deaths to be 987 deaths. The updated 4/4 model now forecasts the Lower Limit Total Deaths to be 315 deaths (roughly a 66% reduction).
I point out the lower confidence limit, since the total number of deaths and actual number of deaths for NC through 4/4 is the same number (31 total deaths). For the 4/4 model, NC is +2 to the lower confidence prediction for total deaths through yesterday.
Overall, this is very good news and reflects what I mentioned a couple of comments earlier with regards to the flattening that is occurring in the Cases per Day curves. It likely means cases are going to be lower and the maximum cases peak could be sooner than earlier forecast.
I believe these improved projections are a direct reflection of the measures we have taken. This seems to be born out by the data, since the bending of the curves and the peak maximums are aligning to the two week period since physical distancing was put in place. I believe, without the physical distancing measures, we would not be seeing these types of improvement in the models and in the actual results as reflected by the case and death tracking curves.
Wayland said:
IHME finally updated their stats.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Now project NC to peak in a week with 30 deaths per day and total 496 deaths. I still don't think we will get to 30 a day the way we have been trending (unless there is a congregate situation that blows up)
Lowered the overall US number into to just over 80,000.
Thanks for posting this. I don't believe most of these projections simply because they have been so far off and all over the place lately. With that said, it does make me feel better, even if only mentally, to see the projected death total going down. 93,000 down to just over 81,000 is a nice thing to see.
My question is this because I am not the sharpest tool in the shed. Is this the same model that has been way off on supplies needed, ie. ventilator's, beds, etc. or is that another model? Again, thanks for posting this along with all the other info you have provided to this thread.
The projections haven't been worth a crap because the data hasn't been worth a crap. It's useless to make projections like they've been doing with such limited data. All it's done is scare everyone.
As has the screaming that we don't have enough ventilators. Cuomo said he needed 30000. Looks like he won't need close to that. Probably not even half. It's why I don't take the claims that we will run out of the malaria treatment seriously.
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The projections/models being used by NY for example, are not the same model. They are using their own models to determine future needs. In fact, the governor of NY called into question the IHME model last week and said he did not believe their respirator needs would be as low as it was projecting. As a result, NY has continued on with their higher projections.RunsWithWolves26 said:Wayland said:
IHME finally updated their stats.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Now project NC to peak in a week with 30 deaths per day and total 496 deaths. I still don't think we will get to 30 a day the way we have been trending (unless there is a congregate situation that blows up)
Lowered the overall US number into to just over 80,000.
Thanks for posting this. I don't believe most of these projections simply because they have been so far off and all over the place lately. With that said, it does make me feel better, even if only mentally, to see the projected death total going down. 93,000 down to just over 81,000 is a nice thing to see.
My question is this because I am not the sharpest tool in the shed. Is this the same model that has been way off on supplies needed, ie. ventilator's, beds, etc. or is that another model? Again, thanks for posting this along with all the other info you have provided to this thread.
As far as NC is concerned, the death projections have tracked fairly closely to the lower limit, as I mentioned in my last post. The only difference being off by a couple. The issue with the early model was the fact they were having to use messy data for the US and were also including data from other countries like Italy and Spain. They were assuming the cases and deaths in the US would track to their data. I suspect they have done a couple of things, since the first model:
1) Adjusted the model to include more real data for the US. Testing in many parts of the country has gone up substantially, since the last model run, so they likely have less noisy or messy data.
2) Based on actual data in the US, they have likely adjusted the weighting they are putting on the data from other countries.
The IHME model seems to be one of the primary models being used by the Federal taskforce, since it is cited quite often by Dr. Birx and it is the source of one of the graphs she has displayed. This is why I have been tracking this data. This is likely the source of some of the push-back the Federal government has been giving the State's with regards to their need for more ventilators. There is a difference in models and unless the State's can show they are on a track to actually run out (based on current utilization and utilization projections), the Federal government is giving them a fraction of what they ask for from the available stockpile. This is actually the best way to handle it.
Based on the new projections, NC should not run out of beds, ICU beds, or ventilators. They may have shortages in some peak areas of the state, so they may have to move some supplies around inside the state. I am basing this on the capacity numbers posted on the NCHHS website and comparing to the peaks from the IHME model.
According to the current model, NC will peak next week, which is what I said was likely to happen in an earlier post from last night, when I looked at the Daily New Cases curve. On the other hand, Virginia is not doing as well. They were slower than NC in enacting shutdown measures and they have not enacted all the measures NC has done (have not close non-essential services as an example). As a result, they are two weeks away from peaking, according to the latest models.
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