PackMom said:

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WolfQuacker said:

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Finally got my test results back from my 3/22 test. Positive, as expected. I'm about 75% recovered. 5 days without fever, but still get winded really easily. Y'all be safe, it's not a fun disease.

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Glad to hear you're on the rebound. Take care of yourself. How is your family?

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Just me and my wife, no kids. She rebounded a lot better than I. About a week with on/off fever for her. Thanks for asking. We were unlucky, and lucky all at the same time.

WolfQuacker said:

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Finally got my test results back from my 3/22 test. Positive, as expected. I'm about 75% recovered. 5 days without fever, but still get winded really easily. Y'all be safe, it's not a fun disease.

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goodness. glad you are recovering. you've perhaps mentioned earlier in thread -- but how are your close family members doing?

WolfQuacker said:

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Finally got my test results back from my 3/22 test. Positive, as expected. I'm about 75% recovered. 5 days without fever, but still get winded really easily. Y'all be safe, it's not a fun disease.

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Glad you're feeling better!

Fun little article about why case counts is meaningless.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/

King Leary said:

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WolfQuacker said:

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Finally got my test results back from my 3/22 test. Positive, as expected. I'm about 75% recovered. 5 days without fever, but still get winded really easily. Y'all be safe, it's not a fun disease.

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Glad you're feeling better!

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Absolutely!!

I'm just glad there are state boundary lines to prevent cross-contamination.

Saw this comment in an article about Trump's presser today:

On March 27, the United States hit the 100,000 case benchmark. On April 1, the number of Americans infected doubled to more than 200,000 cases. Just three days later, on Saturday, positive COVID-19 cases topped 300,000.

That's one week.

Packchem91 said:

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Saw this comment in an article about Trump's presser today:

On March 27, the United States hit the 100,000 case benchmark. On April 1, the number of Americans infected doubled to more than 200,000 cases. Just three days later, on Saturday, positive COVID-19 cases topped 300,000.

That's one week.

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Would love to know the number of negative results. Think we are sitting around 1.3 million negative test so far. I know that's not as head turning, attention getting for most of the media, but it is important. Also, the number of recovered is extremely important as well

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Saw this comment in an article about Trump's presser today:

On March 27, the United States hit the 100,000 case benchmark. On April 1, the number of Americans infected doubled to more than 200,000 cases. Just three days later, on Saturday, positive COVID-19 cases topped 300,000.

That's one week.

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Would love to know the number of negative results. Think we are sitting around 1.3 million negative test so far. I know that's not as head turning, attention getting for most of the media, but it is important. Also, the number of recovered is extremely important as well

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Sure...there are plenty of positive-slanted stories to this. And 100k people+ have recovered (versus the terrible # whom have died). And unfortunately, only the negative gets viewed.

I also expect with ample testing, that 100k case # would have been reached well before Mar 27.

There's a lot of noise on social media about that being the case. I've read that in only 15% of the deaths in Italy attributed to Coronavirus was it the actual cause of death after review.

Steve Williams said:

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Should we make anything out of the following info? It suggests that a person with congestive heart failure could come in, have a heart attack and die and if he had flu-like symptoms- be counted as a Covid-19 death. I have no clue if any of this is true. If it is (and man, I really hope not) it opens the door for wildly inflated C-19 death rates.

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Comorbidity really should be reported, but people are so focused on raw deaths that it is hard to get away from the noise. CDC had some interesting death charts this week.

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204


4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184

4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)

NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259

Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.

15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)

2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.

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4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271

Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?

Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.

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4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261

Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age

Pivoting from "the flu is worse" to "Covid death counts are being inflated" I see. Nice

Both can be true.

Steve Williams said:

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Should we make anything out of the following info? It suggests that a person with congestive heart failure could come in, have a heart attack and die and if he had flu-like symptoms- be counted as a Covid-19 death. I have no clue if any of this is true. If it is (and man, I really hope not) it opens the door for wildly inflated C-19 death rates.

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https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=234886347709169

Candace Owens is on the warpath about something similar to what you're talking about, Steve.

acslater1344 said:

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Pivoting from "the flu is worse" to "Covid death counts are being inflated" I see. Nice

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Corona can be really bad and there also be a lot of noise in the data and a real lack of understanding of the scope and the scale.

Covid-19 is not going away. It will not disappear with a few weeeks or even months of social distancing, that is the thing that people don't want to acknowledge, until there is a vaccine or herd immunity (and even after) there will be deaths in perpetuity due to Covid-19. We need to understand the full scale and scope so that we can find the balance between managing the disaster and moving forward with life.

People in charge are not dong a good enough job taking advantage of this shut down time to accurately determine the true scale of the pandemic and are too focused on micro data or noise.

curmudgeon.zen said:

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Steve Williams said:

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Should we make anything out of the following info? It suggests that a person with congestive heart failure could come in, have a heart attack and die and if he had flu-like symptoms- be counted as a Covid-19 death. I have no clue if any of this is true. If it is (and man, I really hope not) it opens the door for wildly inflated C-19 death rates.

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https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=234886347709169

Candace Owens is on the warpath about something similar to what you're talking about, Steve.

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Really hope that this isn't happening....but who knows? I also agree with you Steve what you posted about having confidence right now....not sure what to believe.

Wayland said:

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acslater1344 said:

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Pivoting from "the flu is worse" to "Covid death counts are being inflated" I see. Nice

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Corona can be really bad and there also be a lot of noise in the data and a real lack of understanding of the scope and the scale.

Covid-19 is not going away. It will not disappear with a few weeeks or even months of social distancing, that is the thing that people don't want to acknowledge, until there is a vaccine or herd immunity (and even after) there will be deaths in perpetuity due to Covid-19. We need to understand the full scale and scope so that we can find the balance between managing the disaster and moving forward with life.

People in charge are not dong a good enough job taking advantage of this shut down time to accurately determine the true scale of the pandemic and are too focused on micro data or noise.

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I certainly agree with so much of what you just said. I don't know who's in charge, but I know there many many great minds who are trying to figure this thing out with the goal of getting life back to normal. I hope they are in communication with the decision makers.

Provisional death counts involving pneumonia, covid-19, and all causes.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

Will be interesting to see when the data comes out next week what the reports show and how lagged data will impact what the numbers are.

I can't assume the answers are there and they're just being withheld from the world for some secondary gain issue. I don't think anybody knows the answer. Given a lack of durable equipment in the short run and a lack of confirmed effective treatment or vaccine, the current measures seem to me to buy the necessary time to make such things happen. Again, the downside risk if the ones who fight for quick return to normalcy are mistaken seems too great

Correct

Daviewolf83 said:

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Mormad said:

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I can't assume the answers are there and they're just being withheld from the world for some secondary gain issue. I don't think anybody knows the answer. Given a lack of durable equipment in the short run and a lack of confirmed effective treatment or vaccine, the current measures seem to me to buy the necessary time to make such things happen. Again, the downside risk if the ones who fight for quick return to normalcy are mistaken seems too great

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My view is the government got this one shot at a total economic and society shutdown and during it, they need to accomplish the following:

1. Flatten the curve, reduce the stress on the capacity of the healthcare systems, and minimize deaths.
2. Provide time for the healthcare system to develop fast, effective testing methodologies and potential treatments.
3. Put in place plans to operate the economy and all industries at close to normal levels. This is where Test-and-Trace has to be implemented.

If the government, healthcare experts, and the testing industry only does #1, partially does #2, and does not do #3, they will have failed to make full utilization of the shutdown. In my personal view, this was the government's one shot to do all three things and when the death curves flatten out and the demand for healthcare returns to more normal levels, the economy has to reopen and to keep it reopened, they have to implement #3.

If the government fails to implement #3, people will not be willing to go the total shutdown route when the next wave hits. I hope the really smart people are currently working on #3 now, so we will be ready to implement it in a couple of months.

Personally, I do not think the news media (both nationally and at the state/local level) are doing enough to ask about #3. They seem to be too focused on reporting on current deaths and looking for people to blame. In the press briefings (both federal and more specifically the state level) they need to be focusing questions on what the plans are to implement #3. I keep hearing the NC governor complain that they do not have enough testing capacity. He needs to be explain why and then identify what is being done to remedy the why.

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The media and those that have access to officials need to be pressing 3 every day and call them out for the circular/non-answers they are providing. And the government needs to be forthcoming on where they are with #3.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/bill-gates-coronavirus-pandemic-a-nightmare-scenario.html

Interesting perspective from Gates. Scary stuff but predicts less than 100k deaths due to social distancing.

I understood the lack of 3 relates to lack of tests, lack of PCR labs, lack of PCR technicians and available PPE for them, etc. Seems they were trying to ramp that up to allow broader testing.

Why is Fauci so against the malaria treatment? It is being used with success around the world, but he refuses to embrace it. Wonder why...

packgrad said:

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Why is Fauci so against the malaria treatment? It is being used with success around the world, but he refuses to embrace it. Wonder why...

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It's being used here, just more judicially than some would like.

We don't know if it's been successfully use around the world. We do know people have taken it and recovered. We also know people have not taken it and recovered.

We also know that it's a nasty drug with lots of side effects. It can't just be given out, in mass, because some people took the drug and didn't die.

So the doctors in other countries that say it works (and heck this country) are to be ignored. We do know it's been safely used around the world.

Also no one suggested giving it out "in mass".

Mormad said:

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I understood the lack of 3 relates to lack of tests, lack of PCR labs, lack of PCR technicians and available PPE for them, etc. Seems they were trying to ramp that up to allow broader testing.

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I agree lack of #3 now has been linked to the items you mentioned, but there has to be some plan to address those issues. I think some States are currently doing a better job of planning for a ramp up in testing and contact tracing and they will be the first to return to a more normal economy.

For example, on Friday the Massachusetts governor announced a new initiative focused on tracking the spread of the virus using contact tracing and they are now making plans to implement. They are hiring over 1,000 people to man a call-center, to reach out to all people who have been in close contact with people known to test positive. The purpose will be to isolate those people as well. This is something that can be done, even when testing capabilities are in short supply. It is not the ultimate Test-and-Trace I outlined earlier, but it is a step in the right direction. I am not aware of any announcement by NC officials to do something like this and these are the kind of "thinking out of the box" ideas they need to be strongly considering.

Now for my rant of the day. My wife and I just returned from taking food and household goods to my daughter. She lives by herself in another area of Raleigh and due to a chronic health condition, she has a severely compromised immune system. Other than walking her dog (something she does while wearing a mask), she does not leave her apartment. We leave the food at her door and then knock, to let her know we have stepped away from the door and it is safe for her to open the door and get her food (we stand at least 12 feed away). While she was doing this today, she told us someone in her apartment building had a large party last night. My wife and I were stunned.

THIS VIRUS AND ASSOCIATED LOCKDOWN IS NOT A JOKE!!

I told her if it happens again, do not feel bad about calling the police. In my mind, people doing this are showing a reckless disregard for other people and this type of behavior should not be tolerated right now.

packgrad said:

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So the doctors in other countries that say it works (and heck this country) are to be ignored. We do know it's been safely used around the world.

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They're not being ignored, it's being used here solely based on their anecdotal evidenced.