Coronavirus

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Packchem91
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caryking said:

Packchem91 said:

caryking said:

Packchem91 said:

caryking said:

Wayland said:



Basically, 'who' should be brought in is outside my purview

The short answer on who needs to go is 'EVERYBODY'. Is it practical... no. But it needs to be done.

But Fauci and Walensky (and basically whoever puts out the sham CDC cherry picked 'studies) should both be gone like yesterday. Or at least removed from public facing roles and gagged. It goes much broader than that, but that would be a start.

EDIT: Just to add. I get Fauci seemed like a dose of juxtaposed sanity when it came to the early pandemic and Trump. But if you really can not see him for the "me first" narcissistic bureaucrat (who it is not outside the realm of possibility had at least a small degree of fault for the pandemic), who's own self-interests MAY occasionally intersect with public health... BUT is likely to cause more harm than good.... I recommend you take a good hard look in the mirror and re-evaluate your entire world view.

Fauci is not a 'good actor'.

-Walensky is just a hysterical politicized MUPPET and if she at one point had any credibility, it is long gone.

To that CDC end, the CDC MMWR propaganda arm should be disbanded.... or at least reformed and include somebody who has greater than a high school level of statistics or data analysis. Additionally, all their cherry picked to fit a narrative, anecdotal studies should be subject to serious peer-review prior to being made public. The fact that the CDC has decided to eschew actual science and data in order to bow to whatever political winds happen to be blowing is a disservice to us all. It is great that they have a solid team infographic creators, but we don't need cute tweets right now.... we need ACTUAL science (not the narrative 'the science').


Perhaps you got the bold statement reversed... Remember, Trump brought in Scott Atlas as a new advisor. Probably because he didn't trust Fauci any longer. I've said this before: Trump was spot on with his assessment of the virus.

Yes, I understand he said we would beat this thing early on;
however, he stood there daily and took questions and a beating, by the media. What's Biden done?

Trump is the epitome of an optimist! That's the way he operates. He wants people to feel as if everything is going to be ok. Nothing wrong with that as a leader. At the same time, he stood their and took question after question.

Finally, this juxtapose crap is a joke! Somebody needed to juxtapose Fauci! Fauci is EVIL!!!
LOL. Come on man. It's ok to say Trump completely whiffed (and mislead) the American people on how bad this was. Lots of folks did early on.

This is like saying -- "I've said this before, but Edward Smith, was spot on with his assessment of the unsinkability of the Titanic".
"Yes, I know he ran it into an iceberg and sunk the unsinkable costing thousands of people who trusted him their lives but it was only because he was an optimist".


Chem, I wasn't talking to you. We all know how you feel about Trump! Please STOP!!!
LOL, you just said he was spot on in his assessment about Covid on a public forum. If you wanted it to be a response to a single person, send them a message. You see, I tend to mock it whenever someone says something really stupid, whether its about Trump or Biden or whomever. And that comment, was pretty stupid.
Did you hear that one in one of your beloved "Trump was always right (and if he wasn't it was only because he was lied to)" video sessions?

ETA: OK, now back to ongoing Corona stories....


Chem, it's obvious that you're butt hurt by people like me! Why you continue to respond to me shows this. BTW, you're the only STUPID one here!

It's time for you to get lost!!!!

BTW, I still have the private messages you've sent me!
LOL, ok. I'm not sure what that even means -- the PM thread you started and that was cordial - where you sent me your thoughts, I replied in kind, and you replied one last time?
Wow. Post it all here, as far as I'm concerned.
You make it seem like something was untoward, it was reasonable both directions.

Why have you started acting like such a spoiled child on here? You made a dumb comment. Everyone does occasionally, so no, I won't "get lost".
Packchem91
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WPNfamily said:

If I have learned one thing from Covid it is that more people than ever have rooted their own personal identities in their political affiliation... This is why we can not have nice things and have to suffer through so much misinformation.
Right --- was just reading thru a twitter thread involving a former NFL FB player here in CLT, who is very opposed to the vaccine mandates, etc. It's funny to see the selective use of facts and figured, and selective ignorance of others. Pretty much everyone, regardless of "sides" can be guilty of this, and contributes again to why I said the other day that the actual informed opinions, like Mormad, must be pulling out hair.
caryking
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Packchem91 said:

caryking said:

Packchem91 said:

caryking said:

Packchem91 said:

caryking said:

Wayland said:



Basically, 'who' should be brought in is outside my purview

The short answer on who needs to go is 'EVERYBODY'. Is it practical... no. But it needs to be done.

But Fauci and Walensky (and basically whoever puts out the sham CDC cherry picked 'studies) should both be gone like yesterday. Or at least removed from public facing roles and gagged. It goes much broader than that, but that would be a start.

EDIT: Just to add. I get Fauci seemed like a dose of juxtaposed sanity when it came to the early pandemic and Trump. But if you really can not see him for the "me first" narcissistic bureaucrat (who it is not outside the realm of possibility had at least a small degree of fault for the pandemic), who's own self-interests MAY occasionally intersect with public health... BUT is likely to cause more harm than good.... I recommend you take a good hard look in the mirror and re-evaluate your entire world view.

Fauci is not a 'good actor'.

-Walensky is just a hysterical politicized MUPPET and if she at one point had any credibility, it is long gone.

To that CDC end, the CDC MMWR propaganda arm should be disbanded.... or at least reformed and include somebody who has greater than a high school level of statistics or data analysis. Additionally, all their cherry picked to fit a narrative, anecdotal studies should be subject to serious peer-review prior to being made public. The fact that the CDC has decided to eschew actual science and data in order to bow to whatever political winds happen to be blowing is a disservice to us all. It is great that they have a solid team infographic creators, but we don't need cute tweets right now.... we need ACTUAL science (not the narrative 'the science').


Perhaps you got the bold statement reversed... Remember, Trump brought in Scott Atlas as a new advisor. Probably because he didn't trust Fauci any longer. I've said this before: Trump was spot on with his assessment of the virus.

Yes, I understand he said we would beat this thing early on;
however, he stood there daily and took questions and a beating, by the media. What's Biden done?

Trump is the epitome of an optimist! That's the way he operates. He wants people to feel as if everything is going to be ok. Nothing wrong with that as a leader. At the same time, he stood their and took question after question.

Finally, this juxtapose crap is a joke! Somebody needed to juxtapose Fauci! Fauci is EVIL!!!
LOL. Come on man. It's ok to say Trump completely whiffed (and mislead) the American people on how bad this was. Lots of folks did early on.

This is like saying -- "I've said this before, but Edward Smith, was spot on with his assessment of the unsinkability of the Titanic".
"Yes, I know he ran it into an iceberg and sunk the unsinkable costing thousands of people who trusted him their lives but it was only because he was an optimist".


Chem, I wasn't talking to you. We all know how you feel about Trump! Please STOP!!!
LOL, you just said he was spot on in his assessment about Covid on a public forum. If you wanted it to be a response to a single person, send them a message. You see, I tend to mock it whenever someone says something really stupid, whether its about Trump or Biden or whomever. And that comment, was pretty stupid.
Did you hear that one in one of your beloved "Trump was always right (and if he wasn't it was only because he was lied to)" video sessions?

ETA: OK, now back to ongoing Corona stories....


Chem, it's obvious that you're butt hurt by people like me! Why you continue to respond to me shows this. BTW, you're the only STUPID one here!

It's time for you to get lost!!!!

BTW, I still have the private messages you've sent me!
LOL, ok. I'm not sure what that even means -- the PM thread you started and that was cordial - where you sent me your thoughts, I replied in kind, and you replied one last time?
Wow. Post it all here, as far as I'm concerned.
You make it seem like something was untoward, it was reasonable both directions.

Why have you started acting like such a spoiled child on here? You made a dumb comment. Everyone does occasionally, so no, I won't "get lost".


Ok
ciscopack
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I assume you guys heard about that plane crash a few weeks ago where 2 guys survived the crash and they struggled to find their way out for days? It was in some jungle; I forget where? Neither had Covid and one guy was vaccinated; he was an engineer and architect. They were walking through the jungle and came upon a dilapidated bridge about 300 feet long and below was a river full of crocodiles. The un-vaccinated guy asked the engineer, what chances do we have to cross on that bridge? The engineer looked at it carefully and said that he's estimate the chances of the bridge holding them up to be around 90%. The un-vaccinated guy said the hell with that, I'm going to swim across. 1 made it home and 1 did not.
Oldsouljer
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caryking said:

Packchem91 said:

caryking said:

Packchem91 said:

caryking said:

Packchem91 said:

caryking said:

Wayland said:



Basically, 'who' should be brought in is outside my purview

The short answer on who needs to go is 'EVERYBODY'. Is it practical... no. But it needs to be done.

But Fauci and Walensky (and basically whoever puts out the sham CDC cherry picked 'studies) should both be gone like yesterday. Or at least removed from public facing roles and gagged. It goes much broader than that, but that would be a start.

EDIT: Just to add. I get Fauci seemed like a dose of juxtaposed sanity when it came to the early pandemic and Trump. But if you really can not see him for the "me first" narcissistic bureaucrat (who it is not outside the realm of possibility had at least a small degree of fault for the pandemic), who's own self-interests MAY occasionally intersect with public health... BUT is likely to cause more harm than good.... I recommend you take a good hard look in the mirror and re-evaluate your entire world view.

Fauci is not a 'good actor'.

-Walensky is just a hysterical politicized MUPPET and if she at one point had any credibility, it is long gone.

To that CDC end, the CDC MMWR propaganda arm should be disbanded.... or at least reformed and include somebody who has greater than a high school level of statistics or data analysis. Additionally, all their cherry picked to fit a narrative, anecdotal studies should be subject to serious peer-review prior to being made public. The fact that the CDC has decided to eschew actual science and data in order to bow to whatever political winds happen to be blowing is a disservice to us all. It is great that they have a solid team infographic creators, but we don't need cute tweets right now.... we need ACTUAL science (not the narrative 'the science').


Perhaps you got the bold statement reversed... Remember, Trump brought in Scott Atlas as a new advisor. Probably because he didn't trust Fauci any longer. I've said this before: Trump was spot on with his assessment of the virus.

Yes, I understand he said we would beat this thing early on;
however, he stood there daily and took questions and a beating, by the media. What's Biden done?

Trump is the epitome of an optimist! That's the way he operates. He wants people to feel as if everything is going to be ok. Nothing wrong with that as a leader. At the same time, he stood their and took question after question.

Finally, this juxtapose crap is a joke! Somebody needed to juxtapose Fauci! Fauci is EVIL!!!
LOL. Come on man. It's ok to say Trump completely whiffed (and mislead) the American people on how bad this was. Lots of folks did early on.

This is like saying -- "I've said this before, but Edward Smith, was spot on with his assessment of the unsinkability of the Titanic".
"Yes, I know he ran it into an iceberg and sunk the unsinkable costing thousands of people who trusted him their lives but it was only because he was an optimist".


Chem, I wasn't talking to you. We all know how you feel about Trump! Please STOP!!!
LOL, you just said he was spot on in his assessment about Covid on a public forum. If you wanted it to be a response to a single person, send them a message. You see, I tend to mock it whenever someone says something really stupid, whether its about Trump or Biden or whomever. And that comment, was pretty stupid.
Did you hear that one in one of your beloved "Trump was always right (and if he wasn't it was only because he was lied to)" video sessions?

ETA: OK, now back to ongoing Corona stories....


Chem, it's obvious that you're butt hurt by people like me! Why you continue to respond to me shows this. BTW, you're the only STUPID one here!

It's time for you to get lost!!!!

BTW, I still have the private messages you've sent me!
LOL, ok. I'm not sure what that even means -- the PM thread you started and that was cordial - where you sent me your thoughts, I replied in kind, and you replied one last time?
Wow. Post it all here, as far as I'm concerned.
You make it seem like something was untoward, it was reasonable both directions.

Why have you started acting like such a spoiled child on here? You made a dumb comment. Everyone does occasionally, so no, I won't "get lost".


Ok
Right. Let's get back to more important topics, like Fauci being exposed for the colossal conspirator that he is. If we had a professional and ethical DOJ, there'd be a grand jury investigation already underway.
caryking
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Where can I get J&J vaccine data? At one point, the J&J was the vaccine I was planning on getting (mRNA vaccines bothered me); however, it was pulled for reasons and started back up.

Right now, too many people are dying with and without the vaccine, from COVID-19. I guess I need to start looking at the vaccines again and weigh the risk/reward…
statefan91
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Not sure where you are so I used my old Raleigh zip code:

https://www.vaccines.gov/results/?zipcode=27606&medications=784db609-dc1f-45a5-bad6-8db02e79d44f&radius=25&appointments=true

Lots of good locations available if you decide to go.
GuerrillaPack
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ciscopack said:

I assume you guys heard about that plane crash a few weeks ago where 2 guys survived the crash and they struggled to find their way out for days? It was in some jungle; I forget where? Neither had Covid and one guy was vaccinated; he was an engineer and architect. They were walking through the jungle and came upon a dilapidated bridge about 300 feet long and below was a river full of crocodiles. The un-vaccinated guy asked the engineer, what chances do we have to cross on that bridge? The engineer looked at it carefully and said that he's estimate the chances of the bridge holding them up to be around 90%. The un-vaccinated guy said the hell with that, I'm going to swim across. 1 made it home and 1 did not.
That joke goes the other way. Two guys look at a flu virus that has a 99.9% chance of survival (the bridge), and one guy says I'll take my chances and the other guy says "No. I'm scared. Give me 5 injections and I'll wear 3 masks at one time everywhere I go, and on top of that let's shut down our whole society for a year and destroy our economy to save us from the virus" (I'll swim).
"Ye are not of the world, but I have chosen you out of the world, therefore the world hateth you." - John 15:19
PackPA2015
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Even after 50+% of the US has been fully vaccinated, mortality rate for COVID is currently 1.6%. Yearly estimated flu mortality is 0.1%. That would be 16 times more deadly. This ain't the flu brother.
GuerrillaPack
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PackPA2015 said:

Even after 50+% of the US has been fully vaccinated, mortality rate for COVID is currently 1.6%. Yearly estimated flu mortality is 0.1%. That would be 16 times more deadly. This ain't the flu brother.
Fake "data". Deliberately inflated numbers of "cases" and "covid deaths" based on the bogus PCR testing (giving HUGE numbers of false positives) and tons of "cases" based on no testing at all (ie, "presumptive" cases). And supposedly the seasonal flu just magically "disappeared" worldwide for the last 1.5 years. No. They just re-named everything as "covid". It's just the flu with a new name and dramatically inflated numbers of cases. The real mortality rate of "covid" is on par with the flu.

"Ye are not of the world, but I have chosen you out of the world, therefore the world hateth you." - John 15:19
Wayland
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PackPA2015 said:

Even after 50+% of the US has been fully vaccinated, mortality rate for COVID is currently 1.6%. Yearly estimated flu mortality is 0.1%. That would be 16 times more deadly. This ain't the flu brother.

Not to pick. But I believe you are comparing a U.S.CFR (660k/40mil for the ENTIRE pandemic) of COVID to an estimated U.S. IFR of influenza there.

While certainly the population IFR for C19 is higher than that of flu, you comparison appears to be apples to oranges. Those numbers are also subject to severe age stratification.

Flu, RSV etc remain with higher IFR for children than C19.

Then again C19 is orders of magnitude worse at the upper age range.

In NC the CFR of the flu the 20/21 winter/spring flu season was 7/43 or 16%.

In NC the CFR of COVID so far has been 14.7k/1.2 million or 1.2%.

See how careful we need to be with numbers? Even when we are using the same basis for calculating CFR... deaths/cases identified (instead of deaths/estimated infections).

Your point remains. But be aware of the numbers your are throwing around and that when you are talking 'mortality rate' you conflate IFR and CFR in your comparisons.
Daviewolf83
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Wayland said:

PackPA2015 said:

Even after 50+% of the US has been fully vaccinated, mortality rate for COVID is currently 1.6%. Yearly estimated flu mortality is 0.1%. That would be 16 times more deadly. This ain't the flu brother.

Not to pick. But I believe you are comparing a U.S.CFR (660k/40mil for the ENTIRE pandemic) of COVID to an estimated U.S. IFR of influenza there.

While certainly the population IFR for C19 is higher than that of flu, you comparison appears to be apples to oranges. Those numbers are also subject to severe age stratification.

Flu, RSV etc remain with higher IFR for children than C19.

Then again C19 is orders of magnitude worse at the upper age range.

In NC the CFR of the flu the 20/21 winter/spring flu season was 7/43 or 16%.

In NC the CFR of COVID so far has been 14.7k/1.2 million or 1.2%.

See how careful we need to be with numbers? Even when we are using the same basis for calculating CFR... deaths/cases identified (instead of deaths/estimated infections).

Your point remains. But be aware of the numbers your are throwing around and that when you are talking 'mortality rate' you conflate IFR and CFR in your comparisons.
Below is are my calculated CFR values for Covid-19, using known case and death statistics for North Carolina. The following values show the age stratification as it relates to mortality and it is quite striking.

0-17 = 0.00%
18-24 = 0.00%
25-49 = 0.15%
50-64 = 1.00%
65-74 = 3.57%
75+ = 11.09%

Overall CFR = 1.19%

Of course, IFR is more difficult to calculate, since we do not know the number of actual Covid infections. I have seen estimates that 15-20% of the overall population in the US has been infected with Covid and if you assume the lower end of the scale (15%) for North Carolina, the IFRs by age group are as follows:

0-17 = 0.00%
18-24 = 0.00%
25-49 = 0.12% (0.09% assuming 20% infection rate)
50-64 = 0.79% (0.60% assuming 20% infection rate)
65-74 = 2.83% (2.12% assuming 20% infection rate)
75+ = 8.80% (6.60% assuming 20% infection rate)

Overall IFR = 0.94% (0.71% assuming 20% of population has been infected)
PackFansXL
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Quote:

A case fatality rate (CFR) is the proportion of deaths from a disease compared to the total number of people diagnosed.

An infection fatality rate (IFR) is the proportion of deaths among all infected individuals, in other words the true fatality rate. While related to the CFR, an IFR attempts to estimate the mortality rate including non-diagnosed cases (e.g. not tested, asymptomatic). An IFR should be lower than the CFR, since the denominator would be expected to be larger.
Wayland
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Daviewolf83 said:

Wayland said:

PackPA2015 said:

Even after 50+% of the US has been fully vaccinated, mortality rate for COVID is currently 1.6%. Yearly estimated flu mortality is 0.1%. That would be 16 times more deadly. This ain't the flu brother.

Not to pick. But I believe you are comparing a U.S.CFR (660k/40mil for the ENTIRE pandemic) of COVID to an estimated U.S. IFR of influenza there.

While certainly the population IFR for C19 is higher than that of flu, you comparison appears to be apples to oranges. Those numbers are also subject to severe age stratification.

Flu, RSV etc remain with higher IFR for children than C19.

Then again C19 is orders of magnitude worse at the upper age range.

In NC the CFR of the flu the 20/21 winter/spring flu season was 7/43 or 16%.

In NC the CFR of COVID so far has been 14.7k/1.2 million or 1.2%.

See how careful we need to be with numbers? Even when we are using the same basis for calculating CFR... deaths/cases identified (instead of deaths/estimated infections).

Your point remains. But be aware of the numbers your are throwing around and that when you are talking 'mortality rate' you conflate IFR and CFR in your comparisons.
Below is are my calculated CFR values for Covid-19, using known case and death statistics for North Carolina. The following values show the age variance as it relates to mortality and it is quite striking.

0-17 = 0.00%
18-24 = 0.00%
25-49 = 0.15%
50-64 = 1.00%
65-74 = 3.57%
75+ = 11.09%

Overall CFR = 1.19%

Of course, IFR is more difficult to calculate, since we do not know the number of actual Covid infections. I have seen estimates that 15-20% of the overall population in the US has been infected with Covid and if you assume the lower end of the scale (15%) for North Carolina, the IFRs by age group are as follows:

0-17 = 0.00%
18-24 = 0.00%
25-49 = 0.12% (0.09% assuming 20% infection rate)
50-64 = 0.79% (0.60% assuming 20% infection rate)
65-74 = 2.83% (2.12% assuming 20% infection rate)
75+ = 8.80% (6.60% assuming 20% infection rate)

Overall IFR = 0.94% (0.71% assuming 20% of population has been infected)

Ya, there is a bit of a nebulous nature to calculating IFR.

In May, the CDC had the estimated COVID burden at 120 million or over 1/3. I would think that may be even higher now.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

I had thought I had seen some estimates of a touch lower than your estimates even. But then again you can play all kinds of IFR games when you separate institutional/LTC cases/deaths from general population.

But, still a lot of hashing out that will be done in the years to folllow... etc.
Wayland
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Daviewolf83 said:

Wayland said:

PackPA2015 said:

Even after 50+% of the US has been fully vaccinated, mortality rate for COVID is currently 1.6%. Yearly estimated flu mortality is 0.1%. That would be 16 times more deadly. This ain't the flu brother.

Not to pick. But I believe you are comparing a U.S.CFR (660k/40mil for the ENTIRE pandemic) of COVID to an estimated U.S. IFR of influenza there.

While certainly the population IFR for C19 is higher than that of flu, you comparison appears to be apples to oranges. Those numbers are also subject to severe age stratification.

Flu, RSV etc remain with higher IFR for children than C19.

Then again C19 is orders of magnitude worse at the upper age range.

In NC the CFR of the flu the 20/21 winter/spring flu season was 7/43 or 16%.

In NC the CFR of COVID so far has been 14.7k/1.2 million or 1.2%.

See how careful we need to be with numbers? Even when we are using the same basis for calculating CFR... deaths/cases identified (instead of deaths/estimated infections).

Your point remains. But be aware of the numbers your are throwing around and that when you are talking 'mortality rate' you conflate IFR and CFR in your comparisons.
Below is are my calculated CFR values for Covid-19, using known case and death statistics for North Carolina. The following values show the age stratification as it relates to mortality and it is quite striking.

0-17 = 0.00%
18-24 = 0.00%
25-49 = 0.15%
50-64 = 1.00%
65-74 = 3.57%
75+ = 11.09%

Overall CFR = 1.19%

Of course, IFR is more difficult to calculate, since we do not know the number of actual Covid infections. I have seen estimates that 15-20% of the overall population in the US has been infected with Covid and if you assume the lower end of the scale (15%) for North Carolina, the IFRs by age group are as follows:

0-17 = 0.00%
18-24 = 0.00%
25-49 = 0.12% (0.09% assuming 20% infection rate)
50-64 = 0.79% (0.60% assuming 20% infection rate)
65-74 = 2.83% (2.12% assuming 20% infection rate)
75+ = 8.80% (6.60% assuming 20% infection rate)

Overall IFR = 0.94% (0.71% assuming 20% of population has been infected)

Also, while this is an 'incomplete' picture as the data will certainly be updated over time, but you can follow the trend line. If someone really had the inclination they could probably examine CFR pre/post mass vaccination (say March/April 2021).

When you look at the trends, at least the quick visual of cases v deaths it 'appears' that CFR has dropped post winter peak.

BBW12OG
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Sleepy Joe is going to release his "6 Point Plan" Thursday as cases are declining... Boy... you lefties are really "building back better with this clown show."

At least he isn't a "con man" and hurts anyone's "feewlings.."
Big Bad Wolf. OG...2002

"The Democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not."
- Thomas Jefferson
Daviewolf83
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Wayland said:

Daviewolf83 said:

Wayland said:

PackPA2015 said:

Even after 50+% of the US has been fully vaccinated, mortality rate for COVID is currently 1.6%. Yearly estimated flu mortality is 0.1%. That would be 16 times more deadly. This ain't the flu brother.

Not to pick. But I believe you are comparing a U.S.CFR (660k/40mil for the ENTIRE pandemic) of COVID to an estimated U.S. IFR of influenza there.

While certainly the population IFR for C19 is higher than that of flu, you comparison appears to be apples to oranges. Those numbers are also subject to severe age stratification.

Flu, RSV etc remain with higher IFR for children than C19.

Then again C19 is orders of magnitude worse at the upper age range.

In NC the CFR of the flu the 20/21 winter/spring flu season was 7/43 or 16%.

In NC the CFR of COVID so far has been 14.7k/1.2 million or 1.2%.

See how careful we need to be with numbers? Even when we are using the same basis for calculating CFR... deaths/cases identified (instead of deaths/estimated infections).

Your point remains. But be aware of the numbers your are throwing around and that when you are talking 'mortality rate' you conflate IFR and CFR in your comparisons.
Below is are my calculated CFR values for Covid-19, using known case and death statistics for North Carolina. The following values show the age stratification as it relates to mortality and it is quite striking.

0-17 = 0.00%
18-24 = 0.00%
25-49 = 0.15%
50-64 = 1.00%
65-74 = 3.57%
75+ = 11.09%

Overall CFR = 1.19%

Of course, IFR is more difficult to calculate, since we do not know the number of actual Covid infections. I have seen estimates that 15-20% of the overall population in the US has been infected with Covid and if you assume the lower end of the scale (15%) for North Carolina, the IFRs by age group are as follows:

0-17 = 0.00%
18-24 = 0.00%
25-49 = 0.12% (0.09% assuming 20% infection rate)
50-64 = 0.79% (0.60% assuming 20% infection rate)
65-74 = 2.83% (2.12% assuming 20% infection rate)
75+ = 8.80% (6.60% assuming 20% infection rate)

Overall IFR = 0.94% (0.71% assuming 20% of population has been infected)

Also, while this is an 'incomplete' picture as the data will certainly be updated over time, but you can follow the trend line. If someone really had the inclination they could probably examine CFR pre/post mass vaccination (say March/April 2021).

When you look at the trends, at least the quick visual of cases v deaths it 'appears' that CFR has dropped post winter peak.


I have the data to show changes over time. When I was looking at the latest CFRs today, I noticed an increase in the 50-64 age group and a decline in the 75+ age group. Here's a graph of the overall CFR by day, since the pandemic began NC. The large bump in the April/May/June 2020 period is likely due to the fact that testing had not evolved enough to find the vast majority of cases.


packgrad
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Yep.

PackPA2015
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Touche brother. Point remains, but I should be more careful in how I make that point.

ETA: IPS won't let me add the accent mark over the e.
PackFansXL
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That CNN graphic is confusing or misleading. They say 1,449 deaths for the 7 day average and then they say 53% fully vaccinated. I hope they aren't claiming 53% of the 1,449 were vaccinated. That's some sloppy reporting and it does nothing to encourage folks to get vaccinated. SMDH

ETA: It is CNN. I suspect those who are vaccine skeptics don't watch that poor excuse for news anyway.
Mormad
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PackPA2015 said:

Touch brother. Point remains, but I should be more careful in how I make that point.


It's cool, man. We know you know what's up. The point remains valid. If this is the flu, it's the most effed up flu in my lifetime.
Packchem91
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Mormad said:

PackPA2015 said:

Touch brother. Point remains, but I should be more careful in how I make that point.


It's cool, man. We know you know what's up. The point remains valid. If this is the flu, it's the most effed up flu in my lifetime.
We can call it Chinese flu, Wuhan flu, IPS' flu, Ol' Man Kelcey's flu, or covid....when you think that the average life expectancy dropped for first time in over 20 years, and by more than anytime since WW2.....its not the seasonal flu we all deal with every year.
Packchem91
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So re: school masking....Union County was one of few local to go no masking. Two weeks in, 375 students with Covid, but due to no masking and the corresponding quarantining process....over 5k students (out of 41k system wide) are out of school on quarantine.
Whatever your views on masking, whatever your views on quarantining based on positive cases, it can't be "healthy" to have 12% of the student pop out -- probably mostly completely healthy, with no arrangement this year for remote learning?

School board is meeting tonight. Will be interesting to see the path they take.
PackFansXL
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Given what we have read in this thread about mask efficacy, it seems like the bigger issue is quarantining kids based on contact protocol. Assuming buildings have adequate ventilation, it seems like just sending the sick ones home would be sufficient, with or without masking requirements.
Wayland
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Packchem91 said:

So re: school masking....Union County was one of few local to go no masking. Two weeks in, 375 students with Covid, but due to no masking and the corresponding quarantining process....over 5k students (out of 41k system wide) are out of school on quarantine.
Whatever your views on masking, whatever your views on quarantining based on positive cases, it can't be "healthy" to have 12% of the student pop out -- probably mostly completely healthy, with no arrangement this year for remote learning?

School board is meeting tonight. Will be interesting to see the path they take.
Have said it over and over.... and even reposted the video from summer of 2020. Over a year ago, it was a good strategy and discussed even here on this forum.

We need to 'test to stay', use paper antigen tests if exposed... and treat the result as 'good enough' so long as no symptoms when using the farce contact tracing.

Quarantining healthy people is simple minded and bad policy.
Packchem91
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Wayland said:

Packchem91 said:

So re: school masking....Union County was one of few local to go no masking. Two weeks in, 375 students with Covid, but due to no masking and the corresponding quarantining process....over 5k students (out of 41k system wide) are out of school on quarantine.
Whatever your views on masking, whatever your views on quarantining based on positive cases, it can't be "healthy" to have 12% of the student pop out -- probably mostly completely healthy, with no arrangement this year for remote learning?

School board is meeting tonight. Will be interesting to see the path they take.
Have said it over and over.... and even reposted the video from summer of 2020. Over a year ago, it was a good strategy and discussed even here on this forum.

We need to 'test to stay', use paper antigen tests if exposed... and treat the result as 'good enough' so long as no symptoms when using the farce contact tracing.

Quarantining healthy people is simple minded and bad policy.
Right. I think the quarantining policy makes zero sense. So change that...I have no issue with it. Or wear masks. Or test. But You can't say no masks AND have an aggressive quarantining policy just so you can avoid having masks. But its stupid to have 12% of your students sitting out of school. And unlikely to get any better for a month or more.....(without policy change)
MayorStoner
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My nextdoor neighbor just died from the virus. She has been putting all this antivax stuff on her facebook page for months....then she got sick, and now she is dead.

Get vaxxed. Don't be like her.
TheStorm
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Packchem91 said:

Wayland said:

Packchem91 said:

So re: school masking....Union County was one of few local to go no masking. Two weeks in, 375 students with Covid, but due to no masking and the corresponding quarantining process....over 5k students (out of 41k system wide) are out of school on quarantine.
Whatever your views on masking, whatever your views on quarantining based on positive cases, it can't be "healthy" to have 12% of the student pop out -- probably mostly completely healthy, with no arrangement this year for remote learning?

School board is meeting tonight. Will be interesting to see the path they take.
Have said it over and over.... and even reposted the video from summer of 2020. Over a year ago, it was a good strategy and discussed even here on this forum.

We need to 'test to stay', use paper antigen tests if exposed... and treat the result as 'good enough' so long as no symptoms when using the farce contact tracing.

Quarantining healthy people is simple minded and bad policy.
Right. I think the quarantining policy makes zero sense. So change that...I have no issue with it. Or wear masks. Or test. But You can't say no masks AND have an aggressive quarantining policy just so you can avoid having masks. But its stupid to have 12% of your students sitting out of school. And unlikely to get any better for a month or more.....(without policy change)
Interesting. So what is 12%? Isn't that like 3 kids out of a classroom of 25? Honestly, how unusual is that in real life?

Not that I don't agree with you on the contract tracing aspect of it... just that we're treating it that way to begin with for a subset of the population that is at zero risk (see Wayland and Davie's recently posted charts for reference),

Has the teacher's union called for a vaccine mandate for all of its members yet? I haven't paid enough attention to answer my own question.
Packchem91
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TheStorm said:

Packchem91 said:

Wayland said:

Packchem91 said:

So re: school masking....Union County was one of few local to go no masking. Two weeks in, 375 students with Covid, but due to no masking and the corresponding quarantining process....over 5k students (out of 41k system wide) are out of school on quarantine.
Whatever your views on masking, whatever your views on quarantining based on positive cases, it can't be "healthy" to have 12% of the student pop out -- probably mostly completely healthy, with no arrangement this year for remote learning?

School board is meeting tonight. Will be interesting to see the path they take.
Have said it over and over.... and even reposted the video from summer of 2020. Over a year ago, it was a good strategy and discussed even here on this forum.

We need to 'test to stay', use paper antigen tests if exposed... and treat the result as 'good enough' so long as no symptoms when using the farce contact tracing.

Quarantining healthy people is simple minded and bad policy.
Right. I think the quarantining policy makes zero sense. So change that...I have no issue with it. Or wear masks. Or test. But You can't say no masks AND have an aggressive quarantining policy just so you can avoid having masks. But its stupid to have 12% of your students sitting out of school. And unlikely to get any better for a month or more.....(without policy change)
Interesting. So what is 12%? Isn't that like 3 kids out of a classroom of 25? Honestly, how unusual is that in real life?

Not that I don't agree with you on the contract tracing aspect of it... just that we're treating it that way to begin with for a subset of the population that is at zero risk (see Wayland and Davie's recently posted charts for reference),

Has the teacher's union called for a vaccine mandate for all of its members yet? I haven't paid enough attention to answer my own question.
Fair question. I couldn't find the average run-rate in a quick google check, though I wouldn't think it was 12% across the entire district, but spikes of localized absences when cold/flu season hit? And difference would be -- sick kids who should be out vs likely healthy who could/should be in class.

As for whether union is involved -- Union is one of those counties that is extremely GOP. So unions don't tend to have much of a voice. I did read an article where the teachers union was upset that the county survey to teachers never asked if they were "concerned", simply would they return or leave when the county decided to go maskless....but not much I've read beyond that.

It was decided to continue maskless operations at the Board meeting last night.
TheStorm
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My teacher's union question was more of a national one than a county one. Have any of the national teacher's unions called for a mandatory vaccine mandate for their members to be able to teach? Like I said, I haven't paid enough attention to know that answer, but I know what the NFLPA's answer was. Just curious, that's all...
Packchem91
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TheStorm said:

My teacher's union question was more of a national one than a county one. Have any of the national teacher's unions called for a mandatory vaccine mandate for their members to be able to teach? Like I said, I haven't paid enough attention to know that answer, but I know what the NFLPA's answer was. Just curious, that's all...
Don't know, but in general, I'm never convinced that what a national union office says is necessarily in line with what is best for the most of its constituents
hokiewolf
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caryking said:

Those that know...

Why did FDA approve the Phyzer Vaccine under the name BioNTech? I know they were working together; however, everyone is saying that the Phyzer vaccine has FDA approval.

The Phyzer vaccine does not have FDA approval, legally. The vaccine is the exact same; however, legally, BioNTech is the FDA approved vaccine. With the FDA approval; doesn't that change the liability?
I believe BioNTech is the developer of the vaccine. Pfizer is producing the vaccine for BioNTech, hence why BioNTech holds the FDA approval.
caryking
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hokiewolf said:

caryking said:

Those that know...

Why did FDA approve the Phyzer Vaccine under the name BioNTech? I know they were working together; however, everyone is saying that the Phyzer vaccine has FDA approval.

The Phyzer vaccine does not have FDA approval, legally. The vaccine is the exact same; however, legally, BioNTech is the FDA approved vaccine. With the FDA approval; doesn't that change the liability?
I believe BioNTech is the developer of the vaccine. Pfizer is producing the vaccine for BioNTech, hence why BioNTech holds the FDA approval.
So, technically, Phyzer vaccine has not been FDA approved?
Wayland
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caryking said:

hokiewolf said:

caryking said:

Those that know...

Why did FDA approve the Phyzer Vaccine under the name BioNTech? I know they were working together; however, everyone is saying that the Phyzer vaccine has FDA approval.

The Phyzer vaccine does not have FDA approval, legally. The vaccine is the exact same; however, legally, BioNTech is the FDA approved vaccine. With the FDA approval; doesn't that change the liability?
I believe BioNTech is the developer of the vaccine. Pfizer is producing the vaccine for BioNTech, hence why BioNTech holds the FDA approval.
So, technically, Phyzer vaccine has not been FDA approved?
I think it is more a branding issue. Can't use the 'brand name' until approved.
statefan91
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Did you get a chance to get signed up for the J&J vaccine I linked you to earlier?
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