Steve Williams said:

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I really think the numbers are going to start trending up again. I have no data to back that up other than they're back to giving away boxes of food again if you'll come and get a Covid test.

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Saw that prediction in an email today. I suspect it'll be short lived with an overall trend downward through the summer, especially with increasing vaxs

PackMom said:

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Question for the medical guys:

In a conversation last night with an older gentleman, he told me that a friend of his, a retired physician who is fully vaccinated, goes every few weeks to donate plasma. Each time they test for antibodies, and each time they've said he tests negative for them, and they have no explanation for this. Any ideas?

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He either can't mount an immune response, got a bad vax that didn't work, or had false negative Ab tests i guess.

Steve Williams said:

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I really think the numbers are going to start trending up again. I have no data to back that up other than they're back to giving away boxes of food again if you'll come and get a Covid test.

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The only reason the cases and deaths reported daily in NC are as high as they currently are is due to lagged data. For the past couple of weeks, NCDHHS has had days when they reported more deaths from the months prior to the current month. Those of us who have been watching this are surprised they are still pulling in deaths from over six months ago, some as far back as June.

The trends are definitely heading down. This is true for the hospitalizations, deaths, cases, and percent positive tests. I would also point out the curve below, showing how the UK is doing versus some EU countries in terms of cases. As many of you know, the EU countries have really struggled (for a variety of reasons) to get shots in arms, while the UK leads most countries (including the US) in getting shots in arms. In the case of several EU countries, cases are starting to trend up, but in the UK cases are continuing to head down. This is even with the more contagious UK variant being the prevalent strain.

Of course, the key in all of this is hospitalizations and deaths and as long as we keep getting shots in arms for people who are 65+, the hospitalizations and deaths should stay in control. Over 65% of hospitalizations have been people who are aged 60+ and the vast majority of deaths (83% of deaths) has been 65+. We will continue to see cases, but hopefully the vaccines will work to keep serious illness, hospitalizations, and deaths low.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777172?guestAccessKey=9c43eef6-7b8e-4f35-8aa7-f3a98ef7894e&utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jama&utm_content=olf&utm_term=030121


Easy graphic on the way J&J vaccine works

Mormad said:

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PackMom said:

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Question for the medical guys:

In a conversation last night with an older gentleman, he told me that a friend of his, a retired physician who is fully vaccinated, goes every few weeks to donate plasma. Each time they test for antibodies, and each time they've said he tests negative for them, and they have no explanation for this. Any ideas?

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He either can't mount an immune response, got a bad vax that didn't work, or had false negative Ab tests i guess.

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Thanks. In a case like that, would someone probably want to try getting a different vaccine somewhere down the line when the supply is more plentiful? (I don't know him and am not giving him advice, just curious as to how someone might deal with such a situation.)

Mormad said:

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https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777171?guestAccessKey=4ef53dc2-11ca-4f74-8ad0-491b1af5b290&utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jama&utm_content=olf&utm_term=030121

As expected, Ab titers higher after single dose mRNA vax in the previously infected than in those without previous infection, suggesting single dose ok for the previously infected, or at least delay the second dose. Short, easy read

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I was also listening to a Science Friday podcast update yesterday (from last Friday's show) and they mentioned that vaccinating someone who had already been infected would be beneficial, since the vaccine offers up a key target for the body to develop antibodies. They implied it would be a stronger reaction than in the case of someone who was infected, since it offers up a more consistent target.

Does this sound correct? I would assume the bodies reaction to the actual virus and the reaction to a vaccine would be very close to the same, from an antibodies standpoint. So, I was surprised by this viewpoint.

Wayland said:

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Steve Williams said:

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Wow, that's interesting. I would've thought it was the opposite. I don't see a fraction of the people at my local testing site that I saw 3 months ago.

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I would expect a lot of the people getting tests are 'repeaters'. Getting tested frequently for their jobs (or sports). My niece and nephew have been tested about twice weekly for the last 5 months in order to continue to compete.

Regarding cases, if there is any validity to Hope-Simpson model comparisons, we should expect a slowdown in the decline of cases in March in NC before bottoming out in April. Any 'surge' we would be due here would probably closer align to what we saw in the summer (as far as timing).

Of course vaccines are a variable in all this, and whether they provide proper full immunity or just a reduction in severe symptoms. Either way, hopefully their contribution makes any seasonal surge negligible.

One thing I did notice the other day looking over hospitalization numbers, is that while we haven't fallen below the total number of hospitalizations from the summer of 2020. The ICU numbers ARE actually below where we peaked in the summer. I would think this would be a huge positive sign (at least for now) that at least the most serious of the serious of the cases are seeing a decline.

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I think you are onto something with the people who have to be tested regularly. My son is tested a couple of times a week, as are all of the athletes at his university. Those who are in season right now are tested even more than twice a week. His school (Wake Forest) is also testing every student weekly, to stay on top of outbreaks. They had an issue this semester when the students returned at the end of January for the Spring semester. The cases got up into the hundreds (total of 901 so far this semester). Instead of panicking, the university stayed with their plan, isolated the sick and the ones in contact trace, and increased testing of the entire student body. They now have it back to a good level, where the percent positive from testing is now 0.5% and the total number of currently infected is less than 30 students/staff.

We heard on the radio that the governor is going to go ahead and open up the rest of Group 3 as of tomorrow (maybe since a number of counties are already doing it).

Mormad said:

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https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777171?guestAccessKey=4ef53dc2-11ca-4f74-8ad0-491b1af5b290&utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jama&utm_content=olf&utm_term=030121

As expected, Ab titers higher after single dose mRNA vax in the previously infected than in those without previous infection, suggesting single dose ok for the previously infected, or at least delay the second dose. Short, easy read

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Awesome - I am ready for a Pfizer or Moderna shot and to be sent on my way. My antibodies are still showing up in plasma donations but would love to get a boost.

This seems like a huge deal, no?

statefan91 said:

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This seems like a huge deal, no?

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This seems like both good and bad news. The good news it will help to increase supply of the one-shot vaccine option. The bad news, based on reports I just read through, is it could take months for Merck to come online with supply capabilities. They are using two manufacturing facilities - one to manufacture the vaccine and another to fill the vaccine. According to the reports I read, it will take months to tool up the facility where they make the vaccine.

The other troubling aspect is that it is becoming more and more clear that J&J is having significant manufacturing issues that they are not able to easily solve. The fact that one of their competitors is being brought in to aid with manufacturing seems to be a good indicator of problems with J&J. Hopefully, they get the 20M doses shipped by the end of March, but I am definitely more concerned today than I was yesterday.

statefan91 said:

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This seems like a huge deal, no?

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YUGE

Daviewolf83 said:

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Mormad said:

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https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777171?guestAccessKey=4ef53dc2-11ca-4f74-8ad0-491b1af5b290&utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jama&utm_content=olf&utm_term=030121

As expected, Ab titers higher after single dose mRNA vax in the previously infected than in those without previous infection, suggesting single dose ok for the previously infected, or at least delay the second dose. Short, easy read

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I was also listening to a Science Friday podcast update yesterday (from last Friday's show) and they mentioned that vaccinating someone who had already been infected would be beneficial, since the vaccine offers up a key target for the body to develop antibodies. They implied it would be a stronger reaction than in the case of someone who was infected, since it offers up a more consistent target.

Does this sound correct? I would assume the bodies reaction to the actual virus and the reaction to a vaccine would be very close to the same, from an antibodies standpoint. So, I was surprised by this viewpoint.

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Yep, I'm really surprised by that. Natural immunity should be stronger than vax immunity, but it seems the vax is actually creating a stronger humoral and T-cell response

Mormad said:

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We now have 75 admitted, 16 in the unit, and 12 intubated across our 5 hospitals

About 2/3 of the population 65+ in guilford/ alamance/rockingham counties are vaxed now

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Do recall how those admissions/unit/intubated compares to the peak for you guys?

Media attacks will be relentless against Texas. This decision takes balls

Governor Cooper is expected to announce expansion of covid vaccine eligibility to all frontline workers no matter their age. This is group three.

As far as Texas goes, I would be hesitant to remove mask mandates at the moment if I was the Governor. I don't think we are there yet.

Hasn't Florida been open with no mask mandate? Forgive me I don't know the ins and outs of Florida but I know that they have claimed to be more open than any other state.

ncsualum05 said:

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Hasn't Florida been open with no mask mandate? Forgive me I don't know the ins and outs of Florida but I know that they have claimed to be more open than any other state.

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According to my brief google search (someone correct me if I am wrong), they have no state mandate, but do have many city and county mandates.

Mormad said:

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King Leary said:

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Media attacks will be relentless against Texas. This decision takes balls

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Ballsy, but i like it!

(I'd personally go 100% open with masking, but that's just me)

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This is where I am as well. Open business, but keep masking until vaccination rates improve and cases/hospitalizations/deaths decrease to a tolerable level.