I hope everyone had a very good holiday. Even though there was a holiday, we have had some news over the past few days and I thought it would be helpful to summarize. Also, I have not provided any stats for a couple of weeks, so I thought that would be helpful as well.
- Just before the Christmas holiday, the US government provided some good news. As discussed previously, the government had been negotiating with Pfizer for 100 million additional doses of their Covid-19 vaccine. The good news is the government has reached an agreement and we will have an additional 100 million doses available, starting in the May/June time period. This will bring the total number of doses available from Pfizer to 200 million.
- While we have been having a holiday, the vaccine distribution has continued and the CDC now estimates that 9.5 million doses of vaccines have been distributed and 1,944,585 people have been immunize. Since these figures have not been updated since 12/26, I believe it is safe to say that over 10 million doses have been distributed and over 2 million people have been vaccinated.
- A recent poll indicated that at least 80% of the people, when asked, said they would get vaccinated for Covid-19 when it becomes available. This is good news.
- As mentioned in posts yesterday, the AstraZeneca vaccine candidate study is close to concluding in the UK an the results should be published shortly. Based on this latest news, it is possible the UK will have an additional vaccine available in a couple of weeks. As far as the US is concerned, the study is still underway and it is expected to conclude in late January. Based on this timing, it is possible AstraZeneca will file for an EUA in early February and if everything goes well, it could be approved by mid to late February. Through Operation Warp Speed, the US will have access to 300 million doses of this vaccine, once it is approved.
- In a study recently published by four professors from the University of Florida's Department of Biostatistics, they performed a meta-analysis of 54 studies looking at the secondary attack (# of new cases among contacts divided by the total number of contacts) rate of Covid-19. The study found a few interesting things:
- Covid-19 is more contagious than other coronviruses with a secondary attack rate of 16.6%. This is compared to 7.5% for SARS-CoV and 4.7% for MERS-CoV.
- The rate of asymptomatic and presymptomatic attack rates was 0.7% (95% CI 0%-4.9%). The researchers concluded the secondary attack rate for asymptomatic people is "not statistically different from zero."
What does this study imply? It implies asymptomatic people and presymptomatic people are NOT responsible for the majority of the Covid-19 spread. Remember we have been told that we need to wear a mask to protect us from asymptomatic people who do not know they are infectious and to prevent spreading the virus if we are asymptomatic. If this study is accurate, we do not need to worry so much about asymptomatic people spreading Covid-19. The focus should be on keeping symptomatic people isolated and people who live with infected individuals should also stay isolated for 14 days.
- Estimates indicate that wearing a mask can decrease your chance of becoming infected with Covid-19 by 65%. Estimates indicated social distancing can decrease your chances of contracting Covid-19 by 90%. Too many people think if you wear a mask, you do not have to social distance. Even if you are wearing a mask, you must social distance.
- In looking at the latest hospitalization statistics for NC, it is clear the vast majority of people who require hospitalization are over the age of 60. For current hospitalizations, 68% are over the age of 60 and 44% are 70 years old and older. People under the age of 50 contribute 17% of all hospitalizations.
- Looking at hospitalizations, 23% of those hospitalized for Covid-19 are in ICU. This is an average for the last 30 days. The percentage is down 2% from the last 60 day average.
- Currently, ICUs are at 81% of capacity. The last 30 day average for this is 82%. The average for the last 60 days is 80%.
- While many believe the recent (past two months) increase in hospitalizations have been driven by Thanksgiving, the graph below clearly shows that hospitalizations were starting to increase a few weeks before the Thanksgiving holiday. I believe the increase is being driven more by a seasonal component (cold weather drives people indoors) and the holiday gatherings of Thanksgiving and now Christmas, only serve to reinforce the increase in hospitalizations. At this point, Covid-19 is everywhere and our ability to control it is limited. Hospitalizations began their rapid growth when the weather turned cold and people moved indoors with others.
- I estimate that slightly less than 4% (3.6%) of people in NC currently infected with Covid-19 are hospitalized. This is in line with the past 30 day average of 3.7%. The graph below shows the total number of people currently hospitalized versus the percentage of people hospitalized.
