IseWolf22 said:

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The phrase "Security Theatre" comes to mind. TSA really isn't very good at finding threats, but it makes the general public feel safer and more confident in flying. A lot of these protocols are similar.

However, I'm ok with it if it improves public confidence to open schools.

---

Yep the economy's health is as much about consumer confidence as it is underlying metrics. Perception ends up shaping reality.

In fairness regarding TSA, it also has the effect of making security seem more stringent which serves as a likely deterrent for more amateurish but still real threats. We don't need terrorists thinking it's so easy, even a caveman terrorist could do it.

Civilized said:

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IseWolf22 said:

---

The phrase "Security Theatre" comes to mind. TSA really isn't very good at finding threats, but it makes the general public feel safer and more confident in flying. A lot of these protocols are similar.

However, I'm ok with it if it improves public confidence to open schools.

---

Yep the economy's health is as much about consumer confidence as it is underlying metrics. Perception ends up shaping reality.

In fairness regarding TSA, it also has the effect of making security seem more stringent which serves as a likely deterrent for more amateurish but still real threats. We don't need terrorists thinking it's so easy, even a caveman terrorist could do it.

---

And yet we still take off our shoes 19 years later (in the US), due to one crackpot.

Once the theater starts, the machine has a hard time stopping it.

Maybe at your job you're making the same sacrifices and additional work you think school workers should have to take on, but most people are not. It's that type of mindset that teachers unions key in on when they fight to keep schools closed.

Civilized said:

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IseWolf22 said:

---

The phrase "Security Theatre" comes to mind. TSA really isn't very good at finding threats, but it makes the general public feel safer and more confident in flying. A lot of these protocols are similar.

However, I'm ok with it if it improves public confidence to open schools.

---

Yep the economy's health is as much about consumer confidence as it is underlying metrics. Perception ends up shaping reality.

In fairness regarding TSA, it also has the effect of making security seem more stringent which serves as a likely deterrent for more amateurish but still real threats. We don't need terrorists thinking it's so easy, even a caveman terrorist could do it.

---

Most threats are stopped before they ever really get going via the intelligence agencies.
I've worked with the TSA as part of an internship at a consulting firm 7 years back. They have people pretend to smuggle fake weapons and such to test the system and their metrics are consistently... not good.

Looks like paper pushers are trying to clear the congregate deaths off their desks by Thanksgiving.

NC - 11/25 *with* COVID Deaths Update. +64

Setting: 38 Congregate, 9 Unknown, 17 General Population

Counties with more than 3 deaths (any setting) reported today:
Forsyth 5
Madison 10
Moore 7

While we do not get a death setting breakdown by county.

Madison and Moore both have Nursing Home outbreaks with greater than 100 cases.

Forsyth has 4 Nursing Home outbreaks greater than 50 cases.

wilmwolf80 said:

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Schools being open is the key to the economy. There are too many people that cannot work, or cannot work full time, if their kids can't be in school during the day. It's not just single parents either. I know a lot of professional couples who work jobs that can't be done remotely that have struggled with their kids not in school. The kids need to be in school full time. No, it's probably not fair to the teachers to have to take on the risk and do all the extra work, but pretty much everyone working anywhere is making those same sacrifices right now.

---

This was one of the primary reasons Sweden (and now most of Europe) decided to not close schools. They recognized the impact to their overall economy of closing the schools and the data backed up not closing schools. The data still says to not close schools, but many school systems in NC are still online only. I am going to repost the direct quote of Dr. Ohl again below. He is very clear on his opinion on schools and his opinion is based on medicine and science. He is a infectious disease physician and he knows more about this topic than any teacher, school administrator, or teacher association leader. I trust his opinion over all of them.

Dr. Ohl said the following in his weekly Covid-19 update late last week:

"A little bit of a word about other school systems, like our public schools. So, you'll different things across the country. Some schools are staying open and doing great. Other schools are getting fearful and shutting down. New York shut down their schools today, which probably didn't need to happen, but a lot of places are just doing it because they did it last Spring. I think the schools that have gone forward and have been open this Fall have found it can be done safely ... and the transmissions of virus in the schools are basically non-existent. When it does happen between teachers, it happens at lunch or around the break room or in a social activity outside of school. There's a few cases associated with school that are after school athletics and I think athletics will need to be revisited a little bit and they ... You know I read with interest here in Forsyh County and I talked with some people and I heard about the school board meeting on Tuesday night. So, here in Forsyth County we've decided, they've decided to leave school open to first grade, for the first graders which I think is fine, I think it's, I don't see any problem with that, it's going well for them. But they're not going to be bringing back any other grades until January. Quite frankly, you know there's a group of people that have been extremely vocal and, and they've developed a kind of life of their own and a crusade against opening schools and there's a lot of misinformation, disinformation and ignorance of science quite frankly in that group. And, that's going to keep schools from reopening in Forsyth County unless they start thinking about it a little bit more. I don't see Forsyth County schools opening at all, maybe even to 2022, as long as this is going on and I, it's just an appeal, I think we need to look at, you know, real science and the schools are safer than the Halloween party. The schools are safer than going to a brew pub and getting pizza. The schools are safer than having friends over to your house. The schools are pretty much safer than anywhere else around. Bars are open. Restaurants are open. Our fitness centers are open. These are play areas for adults and we won't open our schools. Shame on us as a society. What's important? So, I know it's a little bit of a political comment - it does not reflect the views of Wake Forest Baptist Health or anyone else, it's just my opinion as a scientist, as a parent, as a doctor and anyway, it's just something to think about."

Alex Berenson's Part 3 paperpack/online book about Covid-19 is now available at Apple, Amazon, B&N. Masks are obliterated. Zero science for wearing masks. But of course for anyone who has been following this subject already knew this months ago.

sf59 said:

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Thank you for posting this quote.

Early good news from Moderna this AM. The full data set analysis was completed just before Thanksgiving. Vaccine efficacy against CVD19 is 94.1% with efficacy of 100% against severe CVD19. No serious safety concerns identified to date.

Filing for EUA today with FDA and for conditional marketing authorization with the EMA.

Dec 17 is D-day.

---

Awesome news - Pfizer submitted earlier right? I thought I saw something about a 12/10 date floating out there.

Also, assuming the 100% efficacy means that none of those who still contracted COVID in the vaccine group were severe? Just mild cases?

statefan91 said:

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sf59 said:

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Thank you for posting this quote.

Early good news from Moderna this AM. The full data set analysis was completed just before Thanksgiving. Vaccine efficacy against CVD19 is 94.1% with efficacy of 100% against severe CVD19. No serious safety concerns identified to date.

Filing for EUA today with FDA and for conditional marketing authorization with the EMA.

Dec 17 is D-day.

---

Awesome news - Pfizer submitted earlier right? I thought I saw something about a 12/10 date floating out there.

Also, assuming the 100% efficacy means that none of those who still contracted COVID in the vaccine group were severe? Just mild cases?

---

I don't have the pfizer date at hand. It's possible the FDA may just review both at the same time.

You are correct. There have been no severe cases of CVD19 observed from subjects who received vaccine on the Moderna study. Here is how the numbers break down:

-30,000 study volunteers
-196 CVD19 Cases of which185 received placebo
-11 CVD19 cases from the mRNA-1273 vaccine group
-30 severe cases of CVD19, all in the placebo group

Mormad said:

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I don't know where Alex berenson got his MD or where he did his fellowship in infectious disease, but I'll say, and i realize this is fully anecdotal and it appears completely nonsensical, the ID docs around here are wearing masks and imploring others to do so. I'm sure they are more aware of the studies than Alex, and can very likely critically interpret them better than him. I think I'll follow their advice over that of Alex berenson. I bet Dr. Ohl wears his, too. But maybe for purely political reasons.

---

I understand where that is coming from. I've said all along I didn't necessarily believe masks were the end all be all but I'd wear them out of curtesy. Of course now it's mandated and you're a pariah if you don't. But I still push back on it. If it were such a critical piece to helping slow the spread then why are we experiencing huge numbers and spikes like never before when everyone has been wearing masks for months now. Why in the summer when the mandate went into effect did our numbers go up higher? There's never been a correlation b/t mask wearing and improvement in spread. At least not that I'm aware of. So that's my biggest problem right now... OK Doctors... you say it helps.. .where's the evidence?

Ripper said:

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Alex Berenson's Part 3 paperpack/online book about Covid-19 is now available at Apple, Amazon, B&N. Masks are obliterated. Zero science for wearing masks. But of course for anyone who has been following this subject already knew this months ago.

---

Again, 'zero science for wearing masks' is just wrong.

You keep confusing there not being proof of their efficacy with there being proof of no efficacy. Those are two very different conclusions but you conflate them over and over.

There is lots of conflicting evidence about their efficacy.

If you sum and analyze all the evidence the almost certain verdict is that they work, some. Like a flu shot. It's a mitigator, not a guarantee. Just because a flu shot's effectiveness in a given year is low - 40% or 50%, say - doesn't mean that the flu shot that year 'doesn't work'. There are still significant public health benefits to getting that shot.

What we know beyond a shadow of a doubt is that masks do not hurt. They're all upside.

There is absolutely no proof their efficacy is zero.

There's little doubt that mask wearing is far more prevalent now than before, yet the spread has increased. People may say they wear it more, but one only has to be in the general public now vs 6 months ago to see it is true.

I don't get why we have to have the debates about if enough people are wearing masks now. It is readily apparent the majority are. You will never get 100% on anything, but if you can use the 100% goal to continue to scare and lock down, keep it up!!!

It's true that more people are wearing masks.

It's also true that many still are not.

Go to any car dealership. Go to the service and parts department.

Almost nobody is wearing on there, and that's a pretty universal thing in dealerships in NC anyway.

Loads of places where people still aren't wearing them.

Grocery stores? Other big stores? Most are complying in those. And that's where most people
encounter others, and where their opinions are formed, but if you get out a lot and move around
the area as I do, you still see a lot of people not wearing.

So 83% in bigger stores? Yeah, probably. 83% across the board? No way.

Pacfanweb said:

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It's true that more people are wearing masks.

It's also true that many still are not.

Go to any car dealership. Go to the service and parts department.

Almost nobody is wearing on there, and that's a pretty universal thing in dealerships in NC anyway.

Loads of places where people still aren't wearing them.

Grocery stores? Other big stores? Most are complying in those. And that's where most people
encounter others, and where their opinions are formed, but if you get out a lot and move around
the area as I do, you still see a lot of people not wearing.

So 83% in bigger stores? Yeah, probably. 83% across the board? No way.

---

It's also true that many never will. Don't let the perfect get in the way of the good. Unless you're trying to continue the fear porn and lockdowns. (edit to add... not "you" but the general "you")
I am also out and about every day, admittedly not in car dealerships. But in hardware supply stores (big and small), paint stores, plumbing supply stores, flooring stores, grocery stores, drug stores, restaurants, retail (furniture, clothes, etc), gas stations, the VAST majority are wearing them. Only in country gas stations do I occasionally see someone not wearing one, but they are typically behind a glass wall.

The only place I see them not commonly worn are gun shops.

I also don't expect mask wearing to improve, rather the opposite. With cases increasing while people have been wearing masks, I definitely see apathy setting in sooner than later.

Civilized said:

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ncsualum05 said:

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Mormad said:

---

I don't know where Alex berenson got his MD or where he did his fellowship in infectious disease, but I'll say, and i realize this is fully anecdotal and it appears completely nonsensical, the ID docs around here are wearing masks and imploring others to do so. I'm sure they are more aware of the studies than Alex, and can very likely critically interpret them better than him. I think I'll follow their advice over that of Alex berenson. I bet Dr. Ohl wears his, too. But maybe for purely political reasons.

---

I understand where that is coming from. I've said all along I didn't necessarily believe masks were the end all be all but I'd wear them out of curtesy. Of course now it's mandated and you're a pariah if you don't. But I still push back on it. If it were such a critical piece to helping slow the spread then why are we experiencing huge numbers and spikes like never before when everyone has been wearing masks for months now. Why in the summer when the mandate went into effect did our numbers go up higher? There's never been a correlation b/t mask wearing and improvement in spread. At least not that I'm aware of. So that's my biggest problem right now... OK Doctors... you say it helps.. .where's the evidence?

---

'Everyone' has not been wearing masks for months now.

Almost everyone in the grocery stores in Raleigh wear them.

When I went camping at Medoc Mountain two weekends ago and stopped in the Dollar General in Hollister none of the three staff members or the two other customers in the store had masks on. Two staffers had their masks on their chins and the third stocking shelves in the back didn't have one on at all.

People often don't wear masks for small get-togethers at home or in places familiar to them.

Two neighbors two doors down from me just got it (one spouse from the other) when one of them had a work retreat where 12 staffers convened for a weekend and tested beforehand. All tests were negative. They worked unmasked that weekend. 4 of the 12 of them emerged from that weekend with COVID.

That's part of the issue trying to determine efficacy of masks. Everyone isn't wearing masks all the time and people over-report their rate of mask wearing because there is a social stigma against not wearing them.

---

There are anecdotal situations for sure. Yes that is still happening. But everywhere I go I see masks. Now I don't wear them in my home setting so family spread and get togethers like you were talking about are where it is. But that's impossible to stop. How closely were your neighbors working together? Even if they had masks on they probably would still spread it if they worked closely together for a weekend. But if you compare spring and summer to now you're seeing we went from no mask wearing as a society to by and large mask wearing. Seriously it's probably 90% in public places. I'm sure there are certain places where you'd find some people saying screw it but it has to be a very high % of this state. And yet spread is worse than ever. It can't be stopped in my opinion.

packgrad said:

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I also don't expect mask wearing to improve, rather the opposite. With cases increasing while people have been wearing masks, I definitely see apathy setting in sooner than later.

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Yep, we are (or were in the last few weeks) likely at peak mask-wearing.

Apathy and fatigue are not going to improve those numbers, that's for sure.

Daviewolf83 said:

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Very good points. I saw a news report last week regarding a Walmart in Wilson. The reporter observed and reported the following:

1. Walmart had a person in the front of the store to insure mask compliance. Several people walked into the store and were allowed to pass by while not wearing a masks.
2. The reporter walked through the store and found over 20 people not wearing a mask in the store, including one employee.

I was actually surprised at what they saw, since I generally see most people complying. When I was out and about last week in Raleigh and in the western part of the state, I observed most people wearing masks and I would estimate 90% of them had them on correctly. The only issue I saw was while waiting to pickup takeout in a restaurant (in the western part of NC). One man came inside to pickup takeout and he had no mask and a family of 5 came in and none of them had a mask on when they entered.

---

Yep, more people ARE wearing them which leads to people casually noticing that and thinking "Wow, nearly everyone is wearing one"

But as usual with "perceived" things, if you actually stop and count....you'll find out it's not so.

I'd say it just depends on where you go. Shop at a Lowes Foods or Harris Teeter or Publix....and most everyone will have a mask.

Shop at the Food Lion in Youngsville, and you'll see quite a few people without them. It varies.

Pacfanweb said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Very good points. I saw a news report last week regarding a Walmart in Wilson. The reporter observed and reported the following:

1. Walmart had a person in the front of the store to insure mask compliance. Several people walked into the store and were allowed to pass by while not wearing a masks.
2. The reporter walked through the store and found over 20 people not wearing a mask in the store, including one employee.

I was actually surprised at what they saw, since I generally see most people complying. When I was out and about last week in Raleigh and in the western part of the state, I observed most people wearing masks and I would estimate 90% of them had them on correctly. The only issue I saw was while waiting to pickup takeout in a restaurant (in the western part of NC). One man came inside to pickup takeout and he had no mask and a family of 5 came in and none of them had a mask on when they entered.

---

Yep, more people ARE wearing them which leads to people casually noticing that and thinking "Wow, nearly everyone is wearing one"

But as usual with "perceived" things, if you actually stop and count....you'll find out it's not so.

I'd say it just depends on where you go. Shop at a Lowes Foods or Harris Teeter or Publix....and most everyone will have a mask.

Shop at the Food Lion in Youngsville, and you'll see quite a few people without them. It varies.

---

I was actually in a Food Lion in Mocksville, NC (population ~5,000) for about 30 minutes (up and down every row shopping for my dad in an unfamiliar store) on Friday and saw 100% mask compliance. I do agree that the rural areas likely have less compliance than the urban areas of the state and this is unfortunate. Much of the increase in cases and deaths is starting to come from these areas, instead of the more urban areas (with a few exceptions like the Triad region, which Mocksville is a part of).

IMO, when the numbers spike again in about 10 days, the governor is going to implement even stricter rules then before Thanksgiving. Christmas could be even worse then Thanksgiving was.

I have not updated the county level info in the past week, but thought it would be helpful given the last couple of posts. I am listing the Top-20-ish counties for both Cases and Deaths in the last 7 days. One county really jumped out at me - Macon County in the mountains. I assume they have an issue with some congregate facilities, given the level of cases and deaths they reported in the last seven days. It is 5th in new cases and 1st in deaths.

Also, notable is the fact that Wake County only reported 3 deaths over the 7 day period, despite being the second largest county in the state. This is also surprising, since Wake is second in the number of new cases over the same 7 day period.

Top-20 Cases by County:
Mecklenburg (2549)
Wake (2154)
Guilford (1348)
Forsyth (1187)
Macon (954)
Gaston (631)
Catawba (625)
Onslow (595)
Cumberland (570)
Durham (565)
Cabarrus (554)
Union (547)
Alamance (546)
Iredell (491)
Madison (481)
Johnston (474)
Rowan (455)
Davidson (440)
Pitt (440)
Buncombe (419)

Top-20 Deaths by County (listed more than 20, since several were tied at 4 deaths):
Macon (26)
Mecklenburg (20)
Forsyth (9)
Guilford (9)
Sampson (8)
Catawba (7)
Gaston (7)
Moore (7)
Randolph (7)
Buncombe ()6
Duplin (6)
Cleveland (5)
Cumberland (5)
Iredell (5)
Nash (5)
Wilson (5)
Alexander (4)
Avery (4)
Brunswick (4)
Cabarrus (4)
Greene (4)
Pitt (4)
Rowan (4)

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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IMO, when the numbers spike again in about 10 days, the governor is going to implement even stricter rules then before Thanksgiving. Christmas could be even worse then Thanksgiving was.

---

I don't think anyone is paying attention to rules at this point unless it's something that is shutting down businesses

Daviewolf83 said:

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I have not updated the county level info in the past week, but thought it would be helpful given the last couple of posts. I am listing the Top-20-ish counties for both Cases and Deaths in the last 7 days. One county really jumped out at me - Macon County in the mountains. I assume they have an issue with some congregate facilities, given the level of cases and deaths they reported in the last seven days. It is 5th in new cases and 1st in deaths.

Also, notable is the fact that Wake County only reported 3 deaths over the 7 day period, despite being the second largest county in the state. This is also surprising, since Wake is second in the number of new cases over the same 7 day period.

Top-20 Cases by County:
Mecklenburg (2549)
Wake (2154)
Guilford (1348)
Forsyth (1187)
Macon (954)
Gaston (631)
Catawba (625)
Onslow (595)
Cumberland (570)
Durham (565)
Cabarrus (554)
Union (547)
Alamance (546)
Iredell (491)
Madison (481)
Johnston (474)
Rowan (455)
Davidson (440)
Pitt (440)
Buncombe (419)

Top-20 Deaths by County (listed more than 20, since several were tied at 4 deaths):
Macon (26)
Mecklenburg (20)
Forsyth (9)
Guilford (9)
Sampson (8)
Catawba (7)
Gaston (7)
Moore (7)
Randolph (7)
Buncombe ()6
Duplin (6)
Cleveland (5)
Cumberland (5)
Iredell (5)
Nash (5)
Wilson (5)
Alexander (4)
Avery (4)
Brunswick (4)
Cabarrus (4)
Greene (4)
Pitt (4)
Rowan (4)

---

Wake for the most part has had tight control on not having large LTC outbreaks for the last few months.

Unfortunately one facility (Dan E and Mary Louise Stewart Health Center) which already had 10 deaths had a second outbreak and just about doubled their cases from 32 staff and 31 patients a month ago to 64 staff and 72 patients as of Tuesday.

I'd expect Wake to get a couple deaths out of this, since large Nursing Home outbreaks are a high driver of deaths since that population whether with or from are often not in for the long haul.

statefan91 said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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IMO, when the numbers spike again in about 10 days, the governor is going to implement even stricter rules then before Thanksgiving. Christmas could be even worse then Thanksgiving was.

---

I don't think anyone is paying attention to rules at this point unless it's something that is shutting down businesses

---

And they shouldn't. What person thinks a governor has the right to tell his citizens how and when they can visit with their families? Not this person.

packgrad said:

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statefan91 said:

---

RunsWithWolves26 said:

---

IMO, when the numbers spike again in about 10 days, the governor is going to implement even stricter rules then before Thanksgiving. Christmas could be even worse then Thanksgiving was.

---

I don't think anyone is paying attention to rules at this point unless it's something that is shutting down businesses

---

And they shouldn't. What person thinks a governor has the right to tell his citizens how and when they can visit with their families? Not this person.

---

Didn't say anyone did but if you think the spike won't be used for further restrictions, you're kidding yourself. As much as people want to pound their chest and say I can do this or that, the government can't stop me, they actually can. It's just a matter of time before the crazy restrictions kick in.

NC - 11/30 *with* COVID Deaths Update. +21

DoD Reported
11/29, 11/28(7), 11/27(5), 11/26(2), 11/23, 11/21, 11/20, 11/17(2), 10/20(2)

1 missing assigned DoD (5 missing)

Setting:
11 Congregate, 3 Unknown, 7 General Population

Per usual, Congregate driving the death *with* COVID death bus. I am expecting a big drop sometime over the next few days to fill out last week, once the paper pushers are back from vacation.




Bonus chart from Saturday of weekly reported deaths by setting.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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packgrad said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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packgrad said:

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statefan91 said:

---

RunsWithWolves26 said:

---

IMO, when the numbers spike again in about 10 days, the governor is going to implement even stricter rules then before Thanksgiving. Christmas could be even worse then Thanksgiving was.

---

I don't think anyone is paying attention to rules at this point unless it's something that is shutting down businesses

---

And they shouldn't. What person thinks a governor has the right to tell his citizens how and when they can visit with their families? Not this person.

---

Didn't say anyone did but if you think the spike won't be used for further restrictions, you're kidding yourself. As much as people want to pound their chest and say I can do this or that, the government can't stop me, they actually can. It's just a matter of time before the crazy restrictions kick in.

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Well, hopefully the governor will get out of his echo chamber and not try to implement further restrictions. Even if he does for the individual, I have no plans to comply with them. We have our Christmas plans and Herr Cooper doesn't have a say in them.

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I know you have your Christmas plans man, I get it. We also had our Thanksgiving plans and changed them due to covid and not due to the governor. For us, it was most important to have less people at Thanksgiving in order to be a little safer then to pound our chest, have a huge gathering because "the governor is a bad person" and risk others OUTSIDE of ourselves. To each their own but for us, we made the decision to sacrifice a little now for what will hopefully be more later. Sadly, a couple friends of mine didn't see it that way. One popped positive Saturday and one Sunday. Hopefully the 30+ at each house they were around are getting tested and quarantined.

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That's great man. You made the decision for yourself. Just like I should get to be able to make the decision for myself. We've made plenty of sacrifices.