Ask the Danish scientists who conducted the only randomized controlled study on the efficacy of masks for Covid, what they think about masks. They can't get their work published because the public health journals don't like the results.

Civilized said:

---

Daviewolf83 said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Daviewolf83 said:

---

wilmwolf80 said:

---

The success or failures in the handling of the virus fall on the states. There is very little the federal government can do, and they've done it. But let's keep making **** up and trying to steer a non political thread in that direction.

---

You are correct and it is a fact that Cisco has chosen to ignore. The federal government does not have the power to issue a national mask mandate. The federal government does not have the power to shut down all states. The federal government does not have the power to force states to test specific numbers of their populations. They can issue guidelines and they have. It is up to the states to either follow them or come up with their own guidelines.

---

Trump has been bragging for weeks about ending the pandemic so obviously he completely disagrees that there is very little the feds can do. He thinks he ended it.

Which is it?

Are the feds impotent to effect meaningful virus mitigation?

Or did Trump end the pandemic?

Can't be both.

---

Trump has not ended the pandemic and Biden will not end the pandemic. To think either of them has this much power is hubris. At this point, all you can do individually is to wear a mask, wash your hands, and avoid close personal contact when in public. The virus will slow down when we have an effective vaccine and enough people become infected to have natural immunity. It will not go away.

I stand by my earlier statement regarding national mask mandates, the shutting down of states, and the requirements on testing. Trump did not have the power to force states to reopen in April (as was correctly pointed out when he threatened to do so) and conversely, he does not have the power on a national level to force them to shutdown. The same goes for Biden, should he win the election.

---

I agree with this completely.

The pandemic is such a multifaceted problem and requires interagency and state/fed cooperation, communication, synergy, funding, etc. Neither can do it by themselves.

I do think a national mask mandate is prudent from a tone-setting standpoint. For the same reasons that Trump couldn't effectuate reopening, a national mandate can't be enforced federally but mask mandates aren't really enforced at any level so it's not about enforcement. No one is getting arrested for not wearing a mask.

In both cases (fed and state) I think the biggest failings have been communication failings, not logistical ones.

In PR, messaging matters and the feds and states need clear, cohesive messaging on virus mitigation. At the federal level, Trump's wildly inconsistent and incoherent messaging about the virus has shaped Americans' attitudes about the virus, and the science that needs to be shaping policy, in very counterproductive ways.

At the state level, Cooper's opaqueness regarding testing data and reopening strategy/benchmarks have been his administration's biggest misses by far. The nursing home situation has been a challenge but is much more complicated I think.

The nursing homes with the greatest success at keeping the virus out seem to correlate, at a minimum, with areas of the country that are much less impacted by the virus. Keeping the virus out of homes also requires more luck than some people are comfortable admitting. If you handle your business and get a little lucky, you may be able to lock it down but even if your logistics are sound and the virus gets in, it can get away from you so quickly because there's no natural immunity, the virus is so contagious, and older Americans with comorbidities handle it so poorly relative to even moderately younger/healthier Americans.

There's plenty of blame to go around here. Nobody is above criticism for missteps during this challenging time. Nobody - not the feds or the state - deserves all the blame either.

That was my overarching point and the reason for my earlier post. Trump can't claim success because (on top of not actually having ended the pandemic) he can only do so much; neither though should the states take all the blame when there are clear failings at the federal level too.

---

Agree and for people to claim that one politician can solve the issues where another can not is utter nonsense. Also, to claim one country has cracked the code and others just need to follow also shows a lack of awareness as to the complexities of dealing with a virus. Just as Dr. Fauci has said every state is different (which is true), every country is different as well. Some have easily controlled boarders and in some it is much more difficult. Some countries have cultural differences that enable them to better fight respiratory infections and most do not. Some get hit with different, potentially less virulent versions than other countries do. Some are more rural and less dense and some countries are highly dense. Some countries doing better with the virus (Japan as an example) test significantly fewer people than many of the countries doing poorly at suppressing the virus. Please note I say suppress and not control. I believe this is an important distinction.

It is complicated and even in the US, there is not a one size, fits all approach that is appropriate for all states. This is why the states need to be responsible for enacting their own measures, appropriate for their state. The federal government does have a roll to play, but they are not the solution. They can offer guidelines and knowledge that the states may not have. Guidelines can be modified by the states to fit their needs. The federal government can assist with funds where they are needed to support research, purchasing of supplies, and help to people who are impacted economically by the virus. The federal government has been doing this. The federal government can fund the production of vaccines and underwrite the cost of production before vaccine approval, which the federal government has done with Operation Warp Speed.

I agree what Trump should have been clearer with messaging and his resistance to the wearing of masks is embarrassing on his part and on the part of his administration. The whole politicization of wearing a mask is baffling, but I think some of it is cultural. Many Americans pride themselves on their independence and doing things differently. This goes back to the cultural aspect i mentioned earlier. Japanese for example, have not issue wearing a mask and it is part of their culture. American's do not have this inherent in their culture and it is not something that will change overnight. It can take years and decades to change these types of behaviors.

We all have to recognize the virus is not going away and this is a marathon. Our next milestone will be approval of a vaccine and hopefully we will get some positive news on this in the next month or so. Until then, everyone should wear a mask, wash hands, avoid close contact and I would add to avoid being together indoors with large numbers of people. I know the last one is hard with the change in the weather to more cooler temperatures, but it is critically important.

NC - 11/3 *with* COVID Deaths Update. +67

Dates of Death Reported
11/2(10), 11/1(15), 10/31(13), 10/30(6) 10/29(7), 10/28(6), 10/27(2), 10/26, 10/23, 10/22, 10/20, 10/12, 9/4, 8/13

1 new missing DoD (3 total DoD missing)

Setting:
24 Congregate, 9 Unknown, 34 General

New single day reporting peak 11/3 - 67
New 7 day avg report deaths 11/3 - 35

Peak single day deaths (DAY OF) - 8/1 - 40
Peak 7 day avg deaths (DAY OF) - 8/12 - 30

NC - 11/4 *with* COVID Deaths Update. +50

Dates of Death Reported
11/3(5), 11/2(11), 11/1(7), 10/31(5), 10/30(3), 10/29, 10/28(2), 10/27(2), 10/26, 10/24(2), 10/22(2), 10/21(3), 10/19, 10/13(2), 10/12

2 new missing DoD (5 total missing)

Setting:
25 Cong, 10 Unk, 15 General


Good news is that hospitalizations have remained relatively stable overall for the last few weeks, and there may be a hint of levelling in the cases by date of specimen collection. But I guess we will see how that fills out.

Cooper is speaking to the media today. Anyone thing that there will be new restrictions?

No idea what will be discussed but any new restrictions will be arbitrary if implemented.

Just so we are clear on if there are any additional restrictions.

In the past MONTH NC DHHS has traced a grand total:

5 cases to Restaurants (2 in the last 3 weeks)
0 cases to Bars/breweries
1 case to Retail
0 cases to Personal Services (salons, barbers, spas)
Don't know where gyms fall in since they aren't listed.

So since cases are being traced to churches, homes, government, and manufacturing, what arbitrary rules may get added?

These aren't CLUSTERS... these are CASES. Not sure what we are paying all these contact tracers to do.

Also, it appears based on cases by date of specimen collection that there may be levelling already going on (fingers crossed), so this would also allow Cooper to take credit for any downturn since report numbers lag on trends (even though the plateau may have already started forming). Reported cases peaking right now but looking back a week to where they are being assigned, it looks like things are getting flatter.

We still have to see how things fill out.

My friend in the brewing industry said that there have been rumors circulating in his industry for a week that Cooper was going to tighten restrictions. If he does, it won't be because of the science, but that hasn't really stopped him so far, so who knows.

wilmwolf80 said:

---

My friend in the brewing industry said that there have been rumors circulating in his industry for a week that Cooper was going to tighten restrictions. If he does, it won't be because of the science, but that hasn't really stopped him so far, so who knows.

---

I was trying to think of what the best 'arbitrary' theater Cooper could come up with.

I was leaning to a stricter statewide curfew on breweries and restaurants. Allows them to stay open while he pretends to do something. All the while his own traced data is unable to find clusters there.

As I said, Churches, Homes, Nursing Homes, and manufacturing/gov't workplace are apparently where spread is occurring... so let's set limits on bars, restaurants, gyms etc. Is the logic I am expecting.

wilmwolf80 said:

---

My friend in the brewing industry said that there have been rumors circulating in his industry for a week that Cooper was going to tighten restrictions. If he does, it won't be because of the science, but that hasn't really stopped him so far, so who knows.

---

I'm curious as to what what happen if the entire brewing industry in the state decided to get together and just open....

As I mentioned in a post several days ago, the efforts on the part of North Carolina to implement effective contact tracing measures have not gone well. I pointed to a story WRAL did several weeks ago that highlighted the failures of the state government to implement an effective contact tracing response. This story included comments from a couple of the top epidemiologists in the state that highlighted the issues with the poor state of contact tracing.

If anyone has done any reading about South Korea and Japan, they will understand how critical contact tracing is to their ability to slow the spread of Coronavirus in the country. South Korea as an example, implemented significant changes in their country's laws after their poor experience with the MERS outbreak. These changes give the government very broad powers to conduct surveillance of their population, in an attempt to identify, test, and isolate people who may have been infected. Some of these changes consisted of:

1. Warrantless access to CCTV footage (significant infrastructure exists in S. Korean cities)
2. Warrantless access to geolocation data from a patients' phone
3. Government's ability to send text alerts broadly, notifying the population as to the recent whereabouts of new patients
4. Access to credit card transaction logs, so patients visits to stores and restaurants can be tracked
5. Tracking of visits to pharmacies and medical facilities

As you can see from this list, much of what South Korea is able to do (due to changes in their laws) would NOT be allowed in the US or in many other countries. While NC and other states have limits on how they can conduct contact tracing, they do appear to have a long way to go to improve in this critical area.

I will add that as cases grow (as they are doing now), contact tracing becomes more difficult. One thing I noted in the articles on the South Korea experience is that most of their cases early on came from "clusters" instead of "individual" cases. According to the articles, this made it much easier to conduct contact tracing and isolate people who were found to be infected. As we are seeing in the US, most of the case spread is coming from one on one interactions with strangers and in the home. While here have been some cluster events, most of the cases in the US (according to contact tracing) are coming from household spread.

As to overall cases in NC, the growth rate, while not high, does appear to still be increasing slightly. Hopefully, in the coming days it will flatten out, but everyone needs to continue to do your part. As always, wear a mask in public, wash your hands, and maintain the recommended distance from others who you may come in contact with for a prolonged period of time. I would also add one more which comes from my readings on Japan and what they have done - avoid groups of people in "indoor" environments. Confined spaces with poor airflow are the environments we should all avoid.

I've been thinking about the whole "my mask protects you, your mask protects me" mantra. If this is true, and wearing a mask offers little to no protection to the wearer, why aren't restaurant wait staff cases piling up by the hundreds? They're in constant close contact with the unwashed masses of maskless people in poorly ventilated indoor environments.

Side note. Today NC passed VA for per capita deaths w/ COVID. NoVa was hit in the first wave but NC managed to catch them anyways on the strength of NC congregate deaths.

Wayland said:

---

---

Cooper basically opened the presser with this meme basically stating (paraphrase) "3Ws worked in the summer to bring cases down and would work again if we just 3W harder)


ED CLI is still going down (despite cases) <- my take from stats.

Cohen pushing for more PRE-SCREENING testing for before travel or family gatherings. Doesn't appear to be new EOs today.

NC - 11/6 *with* COVID Deaths Update. +34

Dates of Death Reported
11/5(3), 11/4(9), 11/3(2), 11/1, 10/30(3), 10/29(3), 10/28, 10/26(2), 10/24, 10/22, 10/21, 10/17, 10/13, 10/6, 9/20, 8/27

2 new missing DoD (5 total missing)

Setting:
16 Congregate, 1 Unknown, 17 General


By tomorrow's reporting we should have a new peak in deaths *with* COVID by date of death sometime the last week of October. This is not being driven Wake and Meck but smaller population counties.

Hospitalizations and cases by date remain relatively flat.

cowboypack02 said:

---

Does anyone notice that no one seems to care about covid anymore?

---

Covid in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count


Covid-19 cases break record for second day in a row, topping 120,000


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Steve Wms. said about 1 month ago that Covid would probably keep going up until election day. I replied that is probably true and it will keep going up at least to April of 2021 after that. We can cut out ~near 70,000 -100,000 deaths between now and then by following science and what science suggests. The quicker we get rid of it, the quicker we'll be back to near 100%.

statefan91 said:

---

---

Cases (by date of collection) seem to started to level a little over a week ago. We need to continue to watch how this fills out.

Hospitalizations and ICU have been steady for weeks (would also love to see this come down).

We need to be careful making aggregated data points (especially one so tied to tests run) our primary factor for trend data.

There are other signs other than daily aggregated positive cases identified which show we MAY be reaching a peak or plateau.

Worth watching elsewhere in the world, since obviously there appears to be seasonality.

johntom said:

---

ciscopack said:

---

cowboypack02 said:

---

Does anyone notice that no one seems to care about covid anymore?

---

Covid in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count


Covid-19 cases break record for second day in a row, topping 120,000


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Steve Wms. said about 1 month ago that Covid would probably keep going up until election day. I replied that is probably true and it will keep going up at least to April of 2021 after that. We can cut out ~near 70,000 -100,000 deaths between now and then by following science and what science suggests. The quicker we get rid of it, the quicker we'll be back to near 100%.

---

Following science right now only cuts down on cases and deaths (which IMO is necessary). Can we please stop saying that if we follow protocols we can get back to normal though? We get back to 100% when there's a readily accessible vaccine and/or treatment. This isn't going away until then.

The goal right now is to balance the need to keep the economy running with limiting deaths. There is no easy answer. Shutting down completely for an indefinite amount of time isn't feasible. Opening up completely and being OK with hundreds of thousands of preventable deaths is ridiculous as well. What number of cases/deaths are acceptable though. It's not something a doctor or politician will say out loud but that's what we have to decide until a vaccine is available.

BTW I know you were just saying that we can cut down on deaths and that's the point you were going for. I've just been extremely annoyed by people acting like we can get back to normal (have concerts, go to football games, go to bars, etc.) quicker if we follow the protocols now. No, we can't unless we accept that there will be a spike in cases and deaths to follow.

---

and every person has the freedom to make the decision they feel comfortable making. If they don't want to go to a football game, because they fear catching the virus and potentially death; then, don't go. For those that are not fearful, go to the game...

Isn't that liberty?

cowboypack02 said:

---

Does anyone notice that no one seems to care about covid anymore?

---

I care about Covid. My S/O has a heart condition (born with it) that makes her already at a higher risk of stroke/other heart problems. If she were to get COVID, could be game over for her given the toll it takes on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. I don't want to lose her and I'm sure she isn't ready to go out either.

So we continue to do what's best for us. We social distance, stay home, wear masks when we do go out. Do I want things shut down? No. I just want people to think about people like my S/O when they go out and act accordingly. It may not be a big deal for you but it could be a big deal for someone else.

mrcpack17 said:

---

cowboypack02 said:

---

Does anyone notice that no one seems to care about covid anymore?

---

I care about Covid. My S/O has a heart condition (born with it) that makes her already at a higher risk of stroke/other heart problems. If she were to get COVID, could be game over for her given the toll it takes on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. I don't want to lose her and I'm sure she isn't ready to go out either.

So we continue to do what's best for us. We social distance, stay home, wear masks when we do go out. Do I want things shut down? No. I just want people to think about people like my S/O when they go out and act accordingly. It may not be a big deal for you but it could be a big deal for someone else.

---

I'm in the same boat as you. I'm a healthy mid 30's guy but my wife is a two time cancer survivor with no thyroid. We have no choice but to be careful because of that. We do the same things as you and yours do. I refuse to tell others what to do or want things shut down. I would just like to see some type of consistency. Signs say you can't come in without wearing a face covering yet people are everywhere in there without one. Either make something that is followed across the board or don't. My wife and I wear our mask anytime we are out in a store. We will continue that but for gods sake, take the signs down if it is really in there for window dressing and to make you feel better.

I looked at the percentage of active cases hospitalized (an estimate based on 14 day infection period - same the State uses) and graphed it against the current daily hospital census. The positive sign is that hospitalizations as a percentage of active cases is declining slightly. This would seem to indicate that cases being identified now are either:

1) Less severe and require less hospitalization, or
2) Medical professionals have found better ways to treat patients away from a hospital setting

The good news it should continue to prevent NC's hospitals from seeing significant stress on the capacity of hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators.




I also looked at the percentage of hospitalized patients in ICU. I graphed it showing the overall percentage of ICU, since early June (31%) and the average percentage for the past 30 days (28%).



Last, as Wayland pointed out in an earlier post, some of the smaller counties appear to be driving many of the deaths. I looked at deaths by county for the past seven days and found a few of the smaller counties did have a higher than normal level of deaths. I would need more data, but I suspect these could be driven by deaths in Nursing Homes and other congregate facilities. Deaths from these facilities continue to contribute to over half of the deaths in NC.

Top 14 Counties for Deaths week ending 11/6:
Wayne (15)
Alamance (13)
Mecklenburg (13)
Gaston (12)
Moore (12)
Rutherford (10)
Chowan (7)
Forsyth (7)
Wake (7)
Brunswick (6)
Cumberland (6)
Edgecombe (6)
Guilford (6)
Wilson (6)

If you are suceptible to a serious Covid reaction (medical issues, comorbidities, etc), use social distancing. The Danish scientists have already proven masks are joke for Covid.

Thanks for the breakdown. Always good to see another visualization of data.

Also, Wake, Meck, and Guilford make up something like 26-27% of the population of NC and during the last week only account for 10% of the deaths (by report date) and that is with Wake and Meck being at almost double their average from the last few months (Wake has been averaging about 0.5 deaths a day and Meck around 1 over the last 6 weeks)

With regards to people not wearing masks, that's on the stores. It's the stores who would get in trouble ostensibly if their patrons aren't complying, so if they aren't enforcing that, you may want to lodge a complaint. I personally see hardly anyone not wearing a mask. My experiences are admittedly limited, but between my normal runs to Teeter, Costco, Sam's, and the liquor store, the only time in recent memory I saw someone without a mask was a lady who was on oxygen last weekend, who honestly probably shouldn't even be in the grocery store.

mrcpack17 said:

---

cowboypack02 said:

---

Does anyone notice that no one seems to care about covid anymore?

---

I care about Covid. My S/O has a heart condition (born with it) that makes her already at a higher risk of stroke/other heart problems. If she were to get COVID, could be game over for her given the toll it takes on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. I don't want to lose her and I'm sure she isn't ready to go out either.

So we continue to do what's best for us. We social distance, stay home, wear masks when we do go out. Do I want things shut down? No. I just want people to think about people like my S/O when they go out and act accordingly. It may not be a big deal for you but it could be a big deal for someone else.

---

I'm talking about the news organizations......not anyone here in particular.

For the last 6 months we've had all kinds of COVID counters on the "news" networks and now they don't mention it at all.....

cowboypack02 said:

---

mrcpack17 said:

---

cowboypack02 said:

---

Does anyone notice that no one seems to care about covid anymore?

---

I care about Covid. My S/O has a heart condition (born with it) that makes her already at a higher risk of stroke/other heart problems. If she were to get COVID, could be game over for her given the toll it takes on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. I don't want to lose her and I'm sure she isn't ready to go out either.

So we continue to do what's best for us. We social distance, stay home, wear masks when we do go out. Do I want things shut down? No. I just want people to think about people like my S/O when they go out and act accordingly. It may not be a big deal for you but it could be a big deal for someone else.

---

I'm talking about the news organizations......not anyone here in particular.

For the last 6 months we've had all kinds of COVID counters on the "news" networks and now they don't mention it at all.....

---

When I watch or listen to the news, it's CNN or NPR respectively (I know, I know, MSM!!!!!1111). Both have continued to cover it. They documented the dips, the recent spikes in Europe and now here. So I personally, have not noticed a decrease. NPR even has an UpFirst podcast that provides a convenient 10-15 minute daily break down of major stories around the country. More often than not, over the last few weeks (pre-election), that podcast has either led or touched on Covid updates. BUT MSM!!!!!!

wilmwolf80 said:

---

With regards to people not wearing masks, that's on the stores. It's the stores who would get in trouble ostensibly if their patrons aren't complying, so if they aren't enforcing that, you may want to lodge a complaint. I personally see hardly anyone not wearing a mask. My experiences are admittedly limited, but between my normal runs to Teeter, Costco, Sam's, and the liquor store, the only time in recent memory I saw someone without a mask was a lady who was on oxygen last weekend, who honestly probably shouldn't even be in the grocery store.

---

IDK man. We've all seen the stories about workers being assaulted over asking a customer wearing a mask. Most people "enforcing" these rules don't get paid enough to step in here.

No, really haven't seen those stories, but I don't watch the news. But if someone is seeing a lot of people without masks in in a store and that bothers them, then they either can complain about it to the health department, or they can find a different place to shop. Those are really the only options. As I said, I don't see people not wearing masks where I live and shop, which is probably a demographic thing. It doesn't bother me if I see an people without one, but if it did, I would consider doing one of those two things.

And I agree about workers. Not to take anything away from health care workers, but the folks working in stores and restaurants and other service jobs are unsung heroes. I worked in a grocery store for three years in college, and I barely got paid enough to do my job, and definitely not enough to deal with all this added stuff that they have to. It's out of respect for those people that I follow the rules.