Coronavirus

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Pacfanweb
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Don't know where that twitter guy got his numbers. They might be right, I don't know. I do know there is an "Excess deaths" part of the CDC site doesn't seem to agree, although I don't think it's talking totals from year to year.

https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID_excess_mort_withcauses_09092020/WeeklyExcessDeaths?:embed=y&:jsdebug=y&:toolbar=n&:tabs=n&isplay_count=n&rigin=viz_share_link

That's an interactive link, but here's the graph:

Pacfanweb
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packgrad said:

redsteel33 said:




That is bat**** crazy.
And they wonder why businesses are leaving Cali in droves.

They promise more and more "free stuff" and have to take more and more from those who actually produce anything. And then those folks eventually decide enough is enough and leave.
Civilized
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Mormad said:

Bas2020 said:

CDC themselves has said actual numbers are probably around 15,000. Republicans are absolute idiots not to hammer this home. Why on earth everybody keeps accepting the 200,000 number is beyond me.

Can i ask where you got the 15k stat?

Pretty sure it was from this guy.

Colonel Armstrong
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Thanks for posting Davie, article at the bottom is really interesting and a great read
Cthepack
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IseWolf22 said:

Cthepack said:

Civilized said:

DrummerboyWolf said:

Total deaths nationwide for the last three full years and total deaths this year.



Shutdowns have decreased deaths from other causes.

Also, what would deaths this year have been without distancing, masks, and shutdowns?

That's the relevant comparison.

Wear masks. Distance. Open up.

We've got to open up but damn-sure don't need to open up without masks and distancing.


What other deaths are down because of the shutdown?
Without looking anything up, I'd assume traffic deaths would be way down. Even now the roads are a lot less busy with so many white collar jobs working from home
There are like 40k US traffic deaths a year. If that drops to 0 that is around 3000 deaths per month. What else makes up the difference?
Daviewolf83
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Daviewolf83 said:

Daviewolf83 said:

Daviewolf83 said:

Daviewolf83 said:

While Wayland is enjoying a well-earned vacation, below is some of the data he normally supplies daily:

10/5/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
219,754 (214,209 PCR + 5545 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3606 (PCR) + 31 (Anitgen) = 3637
Currently Hospitalized
971 <- 92% reporting (was 907 at 91%)
Completed Tests
3,188,374
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,905 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2248 positive cases over 32,941 new tests. 6.8% positive rate. (DHHS 6.4%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/5:
10/4(1), 10/3(2), 10/2(2), 10/1(2) <== PCR Deaths
10/3(1), 10/2(1) <== Antigen Deaths

They added previously missing deaths in today's report, since the total number added is greater then the total number of new reported deaths.
10/6/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
221,258 (215,477 PCR + 5,781 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3,639 (PCR) + 31 (Anitgen) = 3,670
Currently Hospitalized
1,013 <- 97% reporting (was 971 at 92%)
Completed Tests
3,210,905
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,921 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 from yesterday)
+33 Deaths Overall since yesterday

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (48% were Congregate today)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1268 positive cases over 22,531 new tests (DHHS reports 17,092). 5.6% positive rate. (DHHS 7.9%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/5:
10/5(2), 10/4(12), 10/3(6), 10/2(7), 10/1(1), 9/30(2), 9/28(1), 9/26(1), 9/24(1), 9/17(1) <== PCR Deaths
No new deaths from people, verified using the Antigen test, were reported today.

Reminder that Governor Cooper is supposed to have a press briefing this afternoon at 2:00pm. I am not sure if he will highlight the increasing hospital numbers or increasing percent positive tests. Deaths had a lag in reporting the past couple of days, but like most Tuesdays, they have begun catching up on reporting today.

10/7/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
222,969 (216,943 PCR + 6,026 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3,661 (PCR) + 32 (Anitgen) = 3,693
Currently Hospitalized
1,028<- 93% reporting (was 1,013 at 97%)
Completed Tests
3,229,247
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,932 Deaths are now Congregate (+11 from yesterday)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (50% of deaths were Congregate today)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1,466 positive cases over 18,342 new tests (DHHS reports 17,028). 8.0% positive rate. (DHHS 6.4%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/7:
10/6, 10/5(7), 10/4(2), 10/3(6), 10/2, 10/1, 9/25, 9/17, 9/11, 9/1 <== PCR Deaths
9/29(1) <== Antigen tested Death


Hospitalizations have definitely begun to head upward, along with an increase in daily cases over the past week. Daily cases are flat, but they are higher on average than a week ago and the trend is no longer down. The interesting thing is the percentage of Covid-19 patients in ICU (percentage of all hospitalized Covid patients) is less than 30%. This is down slightly from the percentage for the past couple of months. So, it appears more people are being admitted to the hospital, but the severity of those admitted is lower.



10/8/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
225,397 (219,162 PCR + 6,235 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3,689 (PCR) + 33 (Anitgen) = 3,693 (+29 from yesterday)
Currently Hospitalized
1,051<- 97% reporting (was 1,028 at 93%)
Completed Tests
3,262,720
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,951 Deaths are now Congregate (+19 from yesterday)

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (66% of deaths were Congregate today)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2,219 positive cases over 33,473 new tests (DHHS reports 33,074). 6.6% positive rate. (DHHS reports 5.5%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/8:
10/7(2), 10/6(9), 10/5, 10/4(3), 10/3, 10/2(3), 10/1, 9/27(2), 9/25, 9/22, 9/21, 9/20, 9/14 <== PCR Deaths
9/11 <== Antigen tested Death

A larger percentage of the deaths than normal were from Congregate facilities today (68% of all deaths reported).

10/9/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
227,431 (220,965 PCR + 6,466 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3,713 (PCR) + 34 (Anitgen) = 3,747 (+25 from yesterday)
Currently Hospitalized
1,065<- 95% reporting (was 1,051 at 97%)
Completed Tests
3,304,819
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,960 Deaths are now Congregate (+9 from yesterday)

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (36% of deaths were Congregate today)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2,034 positive cases over 42,099 new tests (DHHS reports 39,442). 4.8% positive rate. (DHHS reports 5.7%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/8:
10/8(4), 10/7(7), 10/6(3), 10/4(2), 10/2, 9/29(2), 9/23(2), 8/25, 8/24, 6/27 <== PCR Deaths
10/5 <== Antigen tested Death
Daviewolf83
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Daviewolf83 said:

Daviewolf83 said:

Daviewolf83 said:

Daviewolf83 said:

Daviewolf83 said:

While Wayland is enjoying a well-earned vacation, below is some of the data he normally supplies daily:

10/5/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
219,754 (214,209 PCR + 5545 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3606 (PCR) + 31 (Anitgen) = 3637
Currently Hospitalized
971 <- 92% reporting (was 907 at 91%)
Completed Tests
3,188,374
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,905 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2248 positive cases over 32,941 new tests. 6.8% positive rate. (DHHS 6.4%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/5:
10/4(1), 10/3(2), 10/2(2), 10/1(2) <== PCR Deaths
10/3(1), 10/2(1) <== Antigen Deaths

They added previously missing deaths in today's report, since the total number added is greater then the total number of new reported deaths.
10/6/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
221,258 (215,477 PCR + 5,781 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3,639 (PCR) + 31 (Anitgen) = 3,670
Currently Hospitalized
1,013 <- 97% reporting (was 971 at 92%)
Completed Tests
3,210,905
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,921 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 from yesterday)
+33 Deaths Overall since yesterday

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (48% were Congregate today)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1268 positive cases over 22,531 new tests (DHHS reports 17,092). 5.6% positive rate. (DHHS 7.9%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/5:
10/5(2), 10/4(12), 10/3(6), 10/2(7), 10/1(1), 9/30(2), 9/28(1), 9/26(1), 9/24(1), 9/17(1) <== PCR Deaths
No new deaths from people, verified using the Antigen test, were reported today.

Reminder that Governor Cooper is supposed to have a press briefing this afternoon at 2:00pm. I am not sure if he will highlight the increasing hospital numbers or increasing percent positive tests. Deaths had a lag in reporting the past couple of days, but like most Tuesdays, they have begun catching up on reporting today.

10/7/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
222,969 (216,943 PCR + 6,026 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3,661 (PCR) + 32 (Anitgen) = 3,693
Currently Hospitalized
1,028<- 93% reporting (was 1,013 at 97%)
Completed Tests
3,229,247
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,932 Deaths are now Congregate (+11 from yesterday)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (50% of deaths were Congregate today)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1,466 positive cases over 18,342 new tests (DHHS reports 17,028). 8.0% positive rate. (DHHS 6.4%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/7:
10/6, 10/5(7), 10/4(2), 10/3(6), 10/2, 10/1, 9/25, 9/17, 9/11, 9/1 <== PCR Deaths
9/29(1) <== Antigen tested Death


Hospitalizations have definitely begun to head upward, along with an increase in daily cases over the past week. Daily cases are flat, but they are higher on average than a week ago and the trend is no longer down. The interesting thing is the percentage of Covid-19 patients in ICU (percentage of all hospitalized Covid patients) is less than 30%. This is down slightly from the percentage for the past couple of months. So, it appears more people are being admitted to the hospital, but the severity of those admitted is lower.



10/8/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
225,397 (219,162 PCR + 6,235 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3,689 (PCR) + 33 (Anitgen) = 3,693 (+29 from yesterday)
Currently Hospitalized
1,051<- 97% reporting (was 1,028 at 93%)
Completed Tests
3,262,720
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,951 Deaths are now Congregate (+19 from yesterday)

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (66% of deaths were Congregate today)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2,219 positive cases over 33,473 new tests (DHHS reports 33,074). 6.6% positive rate. (DHHS reports 5.5%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/8:
10/7(2), 10/6(9), 10/5, 10/4(3), 10/3, 10/2(3), 10/1, 9/27(2), 9/25, 9/22, 9/21, 9/20, 9/14 <== PCR Deaths
9/11 <== Antigen tested Death

A larger percentage of the deaths than normal were from Congregate facilities today (68% of all deaths reported).

10/9/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
227,431 (220,965 PCR + 6,466 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3,713 (PCR) + 34 (Anitgen) = 3,747 (+25 from yesterday)
Currently Hospitalized
1,065<- 95% reporting (was 1,051 at 97%)
Completed Tests
3,304,819
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,960 Deaths are now Congregate (+9 from yesterday)

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (36% of deaths were Congregate today)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2,034 positive cases over 42,099 new tests (DHHS reports 39,442). 4.8% positive rate. (DHHS reports 5.7%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/9:
10/8(4), 10/7(7), 10/6(3), 10/4(2), 10/2, 9/29(2), 9/23(2), 8/25, 8/24, 6/27 <== PCR Deaths
10/5 <== Antigen tested Death


10/10/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
229,752 (223,089 PCR + 6,663 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3,731 (PCR) + 34 (Anitgen) = 3,765 (+18 from yesterday)
Currently Hospitalized
1,034<- 97% reporting (was 1,065 at 95%)
Completed Tests
3,344,152
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,967 Deaths are now Congregate (+7 from yesterday)

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (39% of deaths were Congregate today)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2,124 positive cases over 39,333 new tests (DHHS reports 38,676). 5.4% positive rate. (DHHS reports 5.2%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/10:
10/9(2), 10/8(4), 10/7(5), 10/5, 10/4, 10/3, 10/1(2), 9/29, 9/28, 9/22 <== PCR Deaths
No Antigen tested Deaths Today
Wayland
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One more week to go.


packgrad
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Cthepack said:

Civilized said:

DrummerboyWolf said:

Total deaths nationwide for the last three full years and total deaths this year.



Shutdowns have decreased deaths from other causes.

Also, what would deaths this year have been without distancing, masks, and shutdowns?

That's the relevant comparison.

Wear masks. Distance. Open up.

We've got to open up but damn-sure don't need to open up without masks and distancing.


What other deaths are down because of the shutdown?


Because of the shutdown is debatable, but lightning strikes are down.

Steve Williams
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Staff
I fully expect Covid to be at the absolute worst numbers we've seen since last March by the time we get to the election. The explosion of cases will be the number one story in the nation leading up to the election.
Daviewolf83
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Steve Williams said:

I fully expect Covid to be at the absolute worst numbers we've seen since last March by the time we get to the election. The explosion of cases will be the number one story in the nation leading up to the election.
Cases are rising throughout the world. Partially due to increases in testing and more as a direct impact of the onset of cooler weather. People are starting to spend more time inside and we know that ventilation (or lack of) is a significant contributor to viral spread.

Cases will continue to rise after the election is over and there is very little governments can do about the increases. Locking down economies is not the answer (it never was). Governments like to do it because it makes it appear they are being serious and are "doing" something. Governments would be better served if they came up with better plans to secure and protect Congregate facilities and the elderly living outside of these facilities. We know many European countries had lockdowns even more severe than the US and in most of those countries, they are now seeing increases in in cases. Lockdowns will not make the virus go away and politicians and healthcare officials who say this are not being truthful.

Right now, the focus should be on:

1. Getting as many people as possible vaccinated for the flu.
2. Protecting the elderly and people living and working in Congregate facilities.
3. Continue the message of wearing a mask, avoiding large crowds indoors, social distancing, and washing hands regularly.
4. Increase emphasis and funding for the production of therapeutics - specifically monoclonal antibody treatments. With all the attention on the rapid development of a vaccine, I believe this is an area that has been missed by the US government and other governments around the world. It is not too late and the government should be focused on this area. Reportedly, the US government has secured 300K does of the Regeneron drug, but we will need a lot more doses.
5. Making sure plans are locked down and ready to implement day one of the approval of a vaccine. As I have noted in earlier posts, emphasis for the early doses should be on vaccination of front-line healthcare workers, the elderly (particularly those in Congregate facilities), and people with preexisting health conditions. Health people under the age of 65 and in particular, those under the age of 24 should be the last to receive the vaccine.
Daviewolf83
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Related to my post above regarding lockdowns and their use (or non-use), here is what a key member of the WHO is saying:

Ripper
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Only a power hungry moron or a lemming would think lockdowns are beneficial. Of course lockdowns and school closings are detrimental and worse than the virus itself. Sweden already proved it. I'm glad WHO is joining the Great Barrington Declaration.

Biden supports lockdowns.
Steve Williams
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Staff
I keep hearing about the Joe Biden Covid plan. What is it exactly and how does it differ from anything that's been done so far?
DrummerboyWolf
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Steve Williams said:

I keep hearing about the Joe Biden Covid plan. What is it exactly and how does it differ from anything that's been done so far?
It doesn't. Everything I have heard him say, Trump has already done 6-7 months ago. He won't answer question about packing the court because "the voters don't deserve to know." Biden said that the Republicans confirming Amy Coney Barrett is "unconstitutional" just yesterday. It's not unconstitutional in any way. He wants to go back to Obamacare and try it again after it failed spectacularly. He has no policies that make any sense.
Being an N. C. State Fan Builds Great Character
Ripper
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Biden said if the scientists tell him to lockdown, he'll lockdown. Biden also mentioned a national mask mandate, which is absurd on many levels. He appears to savor authoritarianism. Everything else he has muttered on the subject is what Trump already did.
Civilized
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DrummerboyWolf said:

Steve Williams said:

I keep hearing about the Joe Biden Covid plan. What is it exactly and how does it differ from anything that's been done so far?
It doesn't. Everything I have heard him say, Trump has already done 6-7 months ago. He won't answer question about packing the court because "the voters don't deserve to know." Biden said that the Republicans confirming Amy Coney Barrett is "unconstitutional" just yesterday. It's not unconstitutional in any way. He wants to go back to Obamacare and try it again after it failed spectacularly. He has no policies that make any sense.

You may say you don't like Biden's plan, or don't believe he can implement it.

But to say these are all things "Trump has already done 6-7 months ago" is obviously false. You either haven't actually taken the time to look at Biden's plan, or you just want to gloss over Trump's complete failure to conceive, communicate, and implement a coherent Covid strategy for America.

1. Stop the political theater and willful misinformation that has heightened confusion and discrimination.
2. Ensure that public health decisions are made by public health professionals and not politicians.
3. Immediately restore the White House National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense.
4. Make Testing Widely Available and Free.
5. Ensure that every person who needs a test can get one and that testing for those who need it is free.
6. Establish at least ten mobile testing sites and drive-through facilities per state to speed testing and protect health care workers.
7. Provide a daily public White House report on how many tests have been done by the CDC, state and local health authorities, and private laboratories.
8. Expand CDC sentinel surveillance programs and other surveillance programs so that we can offer tests not only only to those who ask but also to those who may not know to ask, especially vulnerable populations like nursing home patients and people with underlying medical conditions. This must be done in collaboration with private sector health care entities.
9. Task the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to help establish a diagnosis code for COVID-19 on an emergency basis so that surveillance can be done using claims data.
10. Preparing to stand up multi-hundred-bed temporary hospitals in any city on short notice by deploying existing Federal Medical Stations in the strategic national stockpile and preemptively defining potential locations for their use as needed.
11. Directing the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) to prepare for potential deployment of military resources, both the active and reserve components, and work with governors to prepare for potential deployment of National Guard resources, to provide medical facility capacity, logistical support, and additional medical personnel if necessary.
12. Instructing the CDC to establish real-time dashboards tracking (1) hospital admissions related to COVID-19, especially for ICUs and emergency departments, in concert with the American Hospital Association and large hospital chains, for which the HHS must ensure data is able to be shared, as needed; and (2) supply chain information including availability, allocation, and shipping for essential equipment and personal protective equipment, including in the various places where there may be federal reserves.
13. Ensuring that training, materials, and resources reach federally qualified health centers, rural health clinics, and safety-net hospitals, which are typically resource-poor and care disproportionately for vulnerable populations that will bear the brunt of COVID-19.
14. Surge tele-emergency room, tele-ICU care, and telemedicine through a concerted, coordinated effort by health care providers to enable staff to manage additional patients and save beds for the very sick. Leverage existing efforts like Project ECHO to ensure health professionals have tele-mentoring and other training resources they need to make informed decisions.
15. Support older adults, vulnerable individuals, and people with disabilities. Ensure essential home- and community-based services continue and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid works to provide the waivers necessary for those who rely on medication to have a sufficient supply.

...

And on, and on...

https://joebiden.com/covid-plan/

Is Trump's plan out there somewhere? Serious question. I'd like to compare the two, if so.
wilmwolf
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.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
Civilized
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Listen, it's Americans' responsibility to scrutinize politicians' plans.

But if you want to say Biden's Covid plan is the same as Trump's, the onus is on you to at least take the time to look at Biden's plan and then compare it to Trump's with a rational eye.
Daviewolf83
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I have some comments on the Biden Covid-19 plan:

1. Stop the political theater and willful misinformation that has heightened confusion and discrimination. (Comment: Political theater and willful misinformation does not rest solely on the Trump administration. Having followed this issue for months, I can say with certainty that misinformation has been spread by people across the entire political spectrum. Failure to properly explain the statistics and using those statistics to mislead and scare the general population and to advance messages that are not consistent with the facts. For this point, it is the responsibility for Democrats, Republicans, and the media to clean up their act and STOP making Covid-19 a political football, one that is used to advance policy decisions and scare people. For example, casting doubt on the validity of vaccine before it has even completed testing is wrong. We already know that many Americans do not trust vaccines, so propagating a message that the vaccine will not be safe is just wrong.)

2. Ensure that public health decisions are made by public health professionals and not politicians.
(Comment: I would say "ensure that public health recommendations" are made by public health professionals. In many cases, the Trump administration has followed the recommendations of public health officials. Decisions to lockdown the economy to slow the spread are a direct reflection of this. The issue in the US is that our system of government is based on a federal system, where vast powers and responsibilities are vested with the States. For example, remember when President Trump said he would force States to reopen and he later had to back down. The reason is this - a President does not have the power to shutdown businesses in a State and he does not have the power to force States to open up their businesses. Additionally, he does not have the ability to impose a national mask mandate across the nation. This power is vested with the States and their powers are ultimately governed by the State constitutions and by the US constitution. American's also have specific liberties and freedoms that restrict the power of the Federal and State governments. Many other countries to not enjoy these same restrictions and as such, comparing what one country does to another country is difficult. The power of public health officials to make decisions are restricted and limited by the rights Americans enjoy and it is the responsibility of the elected officials (referred to as politicians) to insure the policies and practices put in place to not infringe on these rights and privileges).

3. Immediately restore the White House National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense.
(Comment: I agree with this, but I do not believe it will help America in the immediate term to fight Covid-19.)

4. Make Testing Widely Available and Free.
(Comment: Testing already is widely available, but the government should continue to look for ways to expand it further. As to free, I would say "free to those who can not afford it." If you can afford the testing, you should pay for it or your insurance should pay.)

5. Ensure that every person who needs a test can get one and that testing for those who need it is free.
(Comment: This point seems to be the same as point #4).

6. Establish at least ten mobile testing sites and drive-through facilities per state to speed testing and protect health care workers.
(Comment: Why 10? Why not 20? Are these run by federal employees or by local state employees? What if a state already has 10, do they not need to do anything more. Each state needs to make the determination as to how many and in what location the test facilities need to be provided. It is not the role of the federal government to make or prescribe these types of these decisions. These are local/state decisions and they should be made at that level.)

7. Provide a daily public White House report on how many tests have been done by the CDC, state and local health authorities, and private laboratories.
(Comments: These reports already exist, but they are not as public as they should be and I do not know why. The federal government is already compiling this type of information and they are providing it to the states to make decisions. Other than the "daily public" part, this is something the Trump administration is already doing. This is also being done at the State level and many States are doing an excellent job (better than NC in many cases) at providing this information. This is another area where it is more important of the States to do the compiling of the information and I am not sure the Federal government's providing of this data provides much value.)

8. Expand CDC sentinel surveillance programs and other surveillance programs so that we can offer tests not only only to those who ask but also to those who may not know to ask, especially vulnerable populations like nursing home patients and people with underlying medical conditions. This must be done in collaboration with private sector health care entities.
(Comment: The CDC is using the sentinel surveillance program. I agree more should be done with regards to nursing home patients and people with underlying conditions, but this should be directed more at the county and state levels. This is an area in particular where I believe many states (including NC) have failed. This is also not unique to the US, but it is an area where countries globally have struggled. Given the data and our understanding of the virus, we should be focused more in NC and in other states on testing in nursing homes and congregate facilities and prioritizing the testing capacity to those facilities, instead of worrying about testing people under the age of 24.)

9. Task the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to help establish a diagnosis code for COVID-19 on an emergency basis so that surveillance can be done using claims data.
(Comment: I do not know if this makes sense or not, but will ask my wife, since it is something she has a dealt with in the past)

10. Preparing to stand up multi-hundred-bed temporary hospitals in any city on short notice by deploying existing Federal Medical Stations in the strategic national stockpile and preemptively defining potential locations for their use as needed.
(Comment: We should prepare them when needed. I remember back a few months ago, the politicians running Mecklenburg County wanted to establish a field hospital in Charlotte. They were insistent until the local hospitals explained that a field hospital is not necessary. I also remember President Trump having the Army Corps of Engineers setup additional hospital capacity in NYC, when it appeared they might need the capacity (along with sending a floating hospital). Thankfully, most of this capacity was never needed. What this demonstrates is the Federal government can move rapidly if necessary to establish additional capacity, so we should not do this until it is necessary.)

11. Directing the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) to prepare for potential deployment of military resources, both the active and reserve components, and work with governors to prepare for potential deployment of National Guard resources, to provide medical facility capacity, logistical support, and additional medical personnel if necessary.
(Comment: As I mentioned above, the Trump administration did this already as necessary. Additionally, they are already planning to use military personnel and capacity to assist with the deployment of the vaccines, when they are eventually approved. This is not something unique to the Biden plan.)

12. Instructing the CDC to establish real-time dashboards tracking (1) hospital admissions related to COVID-19, especially for ICUs and emergency departments, in concert with the American Hospital Association and large hospital chains, for which the HHS must ensure data is able to be shared, as needed; and (2) supply chain information including availability, allocation, and shipping for essential equipment and personal protective equipment, including in the various places where there may be federal reserves.
(Comment: This is probably something the US should consider, but I do not believe having this information on a national level is necessary at this point to fight Covid-19. It could be helpful in the future when we have an outbreak of a new virus, but it will also be a fairly costly and complex system to establish.)

13. Ensuring that training, materials, and resources reach federally qualified health centers, rural health clinics, and safety-net hospitals, which are typically resource-poor and care disproportionately for vulnerable populations that will bear the brunt of COVID-19.
(Comment: A lot of this is already being done, so I am not sure why it is part of the Biden plan. It is not a unique idea.)

14. Surge tele-emergency room, tele-ICU care, and telemedicine through a concerted, coordinated effort by health care providers to enable staff to manage additional patients and save beds for the very sick. Leverage existing efforts like Project ECHO to ensure health professionals have tele-mentoring and other training resources they need to make informed decisions.
(Comment: I do not know anything about ProjectECHO to comment on it. As to tele-care, this is an area we have seen tremendous advancement in the past several months and I expect its use to grow. Healthcare companies will definitely pursue it, since it has the opportunity to reduce costs and to deliver more immediate care and limit potential exposure of people to disease. This is something the Federal government should promote, but it is not something the Federal government needs to run.)

15. Support older adults, vulnerable individuals, and people with disabilities. Ensure essential home- and community-based services continue and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid works to provide the waivers necessary for those who rely on medication to have a sufficient supply.
(Comment: I am certain the programs in existence are continuing to address these areas. I would need to see examples of where this is not working today to provide more input.)
Daviewolf83
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I am starting to see public officials and members of the media who are starting to Tweet and write about the increasing number of cases in NC and in other states. As a frame of reference, the increase in cases has coincided with an increase in daily testing. Additionally, while cases and testing have increased, the trend for the percentage of positive tests has declined over this same period.

The following graph shows the trend in Daily New Tests versus the Percentage Positive Tests for the past two months. As I mentioned in my comments above about the Biden plan (see my comments to Item 1), the media and other officials are not reporting the data properly and providing context to the numbers to provide an accurate portrayal of what is happening.


Civilized
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Daviewolf83 said:

I have some comments on the Biden Covid-19 plan:

[Edited in re-post for brevity; see above for comments]

For all these things that Trump has allegedly already done, don't you think it would make sense for him and his campaign to coherently communicate this?

His handling of COVID including his response to his personal bout with it are hamstringing him the most in the polls. Most Americans don't think he had a coherent, effective plan to deal with it and he hasn't communicated effectively enough to the contrary to avoid being badly hurt by that perception come November 3.
Mormad
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That's the problem. Most of the people who hit the polls and push the button are either ignorant, misinformed by campaign lies, or too dense to know and understand reality. Davie laid it out beautifully, but most people are too ignorant to realize all the pretty words in the "Biden plan" are neither unique nor immediately critical in reality. And they certainly aren't aware of what aspects of the plan are federal vs state jurisdiction. I'm no fan of Trump, but i can't help but laugh at the pure campaign rhetoric placing direct blame for 200k lives and the economic decline squarely on the man's shoulders and the self proclaimed intellectual party believing such hyperbolic non-sense. There's plenty of blame to go around and it scares the sht outta me that there's so little self awareness and honesty that both sides are basically playing roulette with American lives, and one dude promises he can fix it all with pretty words and sht loads of our money and the other dude is so self absorbed and poorly spoken that he can't destroy such subterfuge with simple common sense arguments. He could've hired davie and destroyed so much of the covid crap slung his way in 5 minutes flat, but the voters wouldn't really care. They're too interested in all the free stuff for everybody except the tax payers. But it does sound so good.
Daviewolf83
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Civilized said:

Daviewolf83 said:

I have some comments on the Biden Covid-19 plan:

[Edited in re-post for brevity; see above for comments]

For all these things that Trump has allegedly already done, don't you think it would make sense for him and his campaign to coherently communicate this?

His handling of COVID including his response to his personal bout with it are hamstringing him the most in the polls. Most Americans don't think he had a coherent, effective plan to deal with it and he hasn't communicated effectively enough to the contrary to avoid being badly hurt by that perception come November 3.
Oh, I agree with you and I am one who thinks the Trump administration has made mistakes while at the same time getting a lot of things right. He often gets in the way of his own team's messaging and no one would ever confuse him for being a great communicator. The simple act of Tweeting does not make you a great communicator. I have to imagine it drives his campaign staff and the communication people in the administration crazy.

I think the people who work in the administration in the CDC and HHS veterans are doing a good job. As I posted over the weekend, many countries are struggling with Covid-19 and a new rise in cases in countries thought to have the virus "under control." I also posted information that indicates the US and most of Europe were hit by a more virulent strain of the virus that could be causing much of the issues we have seen all along. Add to this some studies that indicate the Asian countries success could be due in part to resistance to Covid-19 that was built up during the large SARS outbreak many years ago (immunity and resistance from T-Cells).

I think the government's ability to control the spread of a virus, especially one as virulent as Covid-19 is extremely difficult. It is made even more difficult by the fact that America is a open society, with significant limitations on the power of the government to limit freedoms of movement and association. To compare America with other nations is difficult and the inability to control the spread is limited.

I do think the Trump administration, while fast to lock-down travel from China, was slow to shutdown travel from Europe. It is rather apparent from some of the early research that much of the virus to hit the east coast of America came from Europe and this is the strain that is much more virulent. It was also difficult to shutoff travel from Europe when you had so many American citizens traveling back. You can not restrict travel of American citizens back to America. However, I think you could have done more to isolate and quarantine those people, once they returned. It might have helped to slow the spread, but it would not have stopped it.

I have never understood Trump's (and many in his administration) resistance to wearing a mask. I have no issue with wearing a mask if it will help to protect others and limit the spread. It is not 100% effective in reducing transmission, but I do believe it provides significant help. I do not believe it is better choice than a vaccine (as a story on 60 Minutes indicated in last night's broadcas) and the sooner we get to a vaccine, the better off we will be. Ultimately, we will need to herd immunity through both a vaccine and through people becoming infected and recovering from the virus. We will have to have both to ultimately return to normal. A vaccine alone will not provide this protection. As we get better medicines to fight the virus (they appear to be close) and a vaccine, people will have to get comfortable shifting from wearing masks and accept that you may become infected.

Where I think the Trump administration did well are:

1. Establishing a taskforce and communicating daily with the American public. I think the daily briefings were good, but Trump should have limited his participation. He is a too much of a lightning rod for criticism and he really did not add a lot of value to the meetings. I think he should have only attended a couple times a week and answered one or two questions - leaving most questions to the taskforce to answer. I do give Trump credit for taking so many questions from the press - this is something I have rarely seen from presidents recently. However, he is very thin-skinned and likes to appear to be the smartest person in the room, even when he is not.
2. Ramping up of testing capabilities from nothing. People seem to forget that the US developed its own Covid test (rightly or wrongly can be debated) and they had to get the test developed, tested, approved, and rolled out very fast. I understand people think it took too long, but if you understand science and let science guide the development, it will limit the speed.
3. Production of ventilators and the increase in hospital bed space and personnel in hard hit areas was clearly something the Trump administration did right and they should get recognized for this fact. Also, the procurement of PPE from China and other countries and utilizing the military's logistics arm to procure and distribute it was a key positive. In the future, America needs to look long and hard at their supply line for medical equipment and supplies and make some decisions about the appropriate location for these to be manufactured. I do not fault the Trump administration on this and believe past administrations should have already taken action to address something so critical to America's health and national security.
4. The on-going taskforce's monitoring and action are something good that has happened. Unfortunately, the taskforce is no longer reporting daily and some of the information they are producing is difficult to find. I am not sure why this is, but the info I have been able to find is very good. People would probably be surprised to learn that Dr. Birx is still heavily engaged in this area and she is someone I think very highly of.
5. I believe the FDA has done a very good job of reviewing and approving new tests and treatments due to this national emergency. The FDA has rightfully been slow to review and approve new drugs and treatments over the years, so the fact they have adjusted their policies and procedures to provide more rapid approval of new drugs and treatments is a positive development.
6. The use of the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corp to reach the indigenous and under-served populations was a key in the fight to protect areas of the population that are typically underserved. I was not really aware of this group until the pandemic, but I am impressed by this group of dedicated professionals and their mission. I do not believe people have a good understanding of what this group has done recently in the battle with Covid.
7. Project Warp Speed is definitely a positive and it is something that has not really been done in the past. The US government has basically taken on the underwriting of all risk associated with the development of a vaccine, to insure doses of the vaccine are ready once testing is complete. I think many people think Project Warp Speed is only focused on speeding up testing and this is not really its advantage. Typically, vaccines would only be manufactured after clinical trials are complete and a vaccine is approved. The reason - companies do not want to take on the risk of manufacturing large numbers of doses prior to approval. The federal government has now taken on this risk and it will mean potentially 10's to 100's of thousands of doses will be available at the time the vaccine is approved. Quite frankly, I do not believe Biden or any other president could have done this any faster.

Mormad
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Great post
Daviewolf83
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I am sorry to have missed providing yesterday's update, but here are the updated numbers from todays NCDHHS updated:

10/12/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
232,747 (225,959 PCR + 6,788 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3,738 (PCR) + 35 (Anitgen) = 3,773 (+3 from yesterday)
Currently Hospitalized
1,109<- 96% reporting (was 1,046 at 95%)
Completed Tests
3,411,026
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,970 Deaths are now Congregate (+0 from yesterday)

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (0% of deaths were Congregate today)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1,232 positive cases over 29,520 new tests (DHHS reports 27,662). 4.2% positive rate. (DHHS reports 6.0%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/12:
10/10, 10/9(2) <== PCR Deaths
No Antigen tested Deaths Today
Civilized
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Great post Davie!

Communication is the piece of Trump's handling of COVID that I quibble with the most.

His communication flaws are so bound up in his personality flaws that I don't think he could have done much better, but a less childish, less impulsive, more secure, more professional, more rational processor of information, and calmer and more skillful communicator would have lead the country more effectively through this crisis.

The real question is "How much better?"

That's unknowable but it's clearly not 'as much better' as many in the MSM and on the left think. Like you said, for a variety of reasons there was a ceiling on how well any president could have handled this crisis.



Mormad
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Civilized said:

Great post Davie!

Communication is the piece of Trump's handling of COVID that I quibble with the most.

His communication flaws are so bound up in his personality flaws that I don't think he could have done much better, but a less childish, less impulsive, more secure, more professional, more rational processor of information, and calmer and more skillful communicator would have lead the country more effectively through this crisis.

The real question is "How much better?"

That's unknowable but it's clearly not 'as much better' as many in the MSM and on the left think. Like you said, for a variety of reasons there was a ceiling on how well any president could have handled this crisis.






Perfectly said, IMHO
GuerrillaPack
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Daviewolf83
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Daviewolf83 said:

I am sorry to have missed providing yesterday's update, but here are the updated numbers from todays NCDHHS updated:

10/12/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
232,747 (225,959 PCR + 6,788 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3,738 (PCR) + 35 (Anitgen) = 3,773 (+3 from yesterday)
Currently Hospitalized
1,109<- 96% reporting (was 1,046 at 95%)
Completed Tests
3,411,026
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,970 Deaths are now Congregate (+0 from yesterday)

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (0% of deaths were Congregate today)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1,232 positive cases over 29,520 new tests (DHHS reports 27,662). 4.2% positive rate. (DHHS reports 6.0%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/12:
10/10, 10/9(2) <== PCR Deaths
No Antigen tested Deaths Today
10/13/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
234,481 (227,496 PCR + 6,985 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3,774 (PCR) + 42 (Anitgen) = 3,816 (+43 from yesterday)
Currently Hospitalized
1,103<- 96% reporting (was 1,109 at 96%)
Completed Tests
3,437,598
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,996 Deaths are now Congregate (+26 from yesterday)

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (60% of deaths were Congregate today)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1,537 positive cases over 26,572 new tests (DHHS reports 20,630). 5.8% positive rate. (DHHS reports 7.1%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/12:
10/12(3), 10/11(6), 10/10(8), 10/9(5), 10/8(5), 10/6(2), 10/5, 10/1, 9/30, 9/28, 9/23 <== PCR Deaths
10/10(3), 10/6, 10/5, 9/28, 9/10 <== Antigen tested Deaths

Of today's deaths, it is worth pointing out that 60% of the reported deaths were from Congregate facilities. Also, there was a large increase in Antigen tested deaths reported today, with an increase of 7 deaths (35 went to 42 deaths).
ciscopack
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Steve Williams said:

I fully expect Covid to be at the absolute worst numbers we've seen since last March by the time we get to the election. The explosion of cases will be the number one story in the nation leading up to the election.
If you guessed that it is going up now, you'd be correct. My guess is that it will go up some more by then but go even higher the next 3-5 months after that time; but I think that's more of a scientific guess? In the US...it depends on us as to what happens.
Daviewolf83
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Apparently, the MSM is finally waking up and realizing what Cooper (or his staff) have been doing in his weekly Covid-19 press conferences. As we have pointed out numerous times over the past several months, Cooper and his staff only call on reporters from news organizations that are more favorable to Cooper. They do not select questioners based on when they called into the press conference call in number or based on the size of the viewer/readership.

Now, even the News and Observer are writing about Cooper's behavior and how he has worked over the past several months to control the message regarding Covid-19 in NC. Cooper likes to claim his administration is transparent, but this is utter BS. There is still a lawsuit in place from the media to get access to Covid-19 information that really should be made public. While he has promised to release the records, he has not done so for months.

FlossyDFlynt
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Daviewolf83 said:

Apparently, the MSM is finally waking up and realizing what Cooper (or his staff) have been doing in his weekly Covid-19 press conferences. As we have pointed out numerous times over the past several months, Cooper and his staff only call on reporters from news organizations that are more favorable to Cooper. They do not select questioners based on when they called into the press conference call in number or based on the size of the viewer/readership.

Now, even the News and Observer are writing about Cooper's behavior and how he has worked over the past several months to control the message regarding Covid-19 in NC. Cooper likes to claim his administration is transparent, but this is utter BS. There is still a lawsuit in place from the media to get access to Covid-19 information that really should be made public. While he has promised to release the records, he has not done so for months.


WPNfamily
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Davie I have found your posts very insightful and thought provoking. I started following you as well on twitter. Please keep sharing this information. It is very helpful seeing facts....
DrummerboyWolf
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Daviewolf83 said:

Apparently, the MSM is finally waking up and realizing what Cooper (or his staff) have been doing in his weekly Covid-19 press conferences. As we have pointed out numerous times over the past several months, Cooper and his staff only call on reporters from news organizations that are more favorable to Cooper. They do not select questioners based on when they called into the press conference call in number or based on the size of the viewer/readership.

Now, even the News and Observer are writing about Cooper's behavior and how he has worked over the past several months to control the message regarding Covid-19 in NC. Cooper likes to claim his administration is transparent, but this is utter BS. There is still a lawsuit in place from the media to get access to Covid-19 information that really should be made public. While he has promised to release the records, he has not done so for months.


Roy is a complete worm and partisan hack. Let's send him a message on November 3rd that he will never forget. Elect Dan Forest!
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