acslater1344 said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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I haven't read any of this thread lately, but here is a link to a video of a press conference yesterday in Washington, DC at the Capitol with several doctors. These doctors believe in using Hydroxycloroquine and getting the kids back to school. Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube have scrubbed this video because they say it's giving out misinformation. These doctors are on the frontline and have real experience with Covid 19. The main stream media will not show it because it helps Trump. These doctors believe in using the medication with zinc and a Z-pack. They make a very convincing case that we can get people back to work, kids back to school, and return to our normal lives. Watch it and make your own decision.

https://www.teapartypatriots.org/press-conference-americas-frontline-doctors-summit/

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COVID Cure: Hydroxycloroquine, zinc, z-pack and a little demon sex

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Mock if you wish. She has treated 350 Covid patients and has not lost any.

acslater1344 said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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I haven't read any of this thread lately, but here is a link to a video of a press conference yesterday in Washington, DC at the Capitol with several doctors. These doctors believe in using Hydroxycloroquine and getting the kids back to school. Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube have scrubbed this video because they say it's giving out misinformation. These doctors are on the frontline and have real experience with Covid 19. The main stream media will not show it because it helps Trump. These doctors believe in using the medication with zinc and a Z-pack. They make a very convincing case that we can get people back to work, kids back to school, and return to our normal lives. Watch it and make your own decision.

https://www.teapartypatriots.org/press-conference-americas-frontline-doctors-summit/

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COVID Cure: Hydroxycloroquine, zinc, z-pack and a little demon sex

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Bobby Lutz's friend had success with the medicine. But because Trump suggested it, it's bad. I know.

Oh was he standing on capital hill today? He was censored by social media as well I bet.

IseWolf22 said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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acslater1344 said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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I haven't read any of this thread lately, but here is a link to a video of a press conference yesterday in Washington, DC at the Capitol with several doctors. These doctors believe in using Hydroxycloroquine and getting the kids back to school. Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube have scrubbed this video because they say it's giving out misinformation. These doctors are on the frontline and have real experience with Covid 19. The main stream media will not show it because it helps Trump. These doctors believe in using the medication with zinc and a Z-pack. They make a very convincing case that we can get people back to work, kids back to school, and return to our normal lives. Watch it and make your own decision.

https://www.teapartypatriots.org/press-conference-americas-frontline-doctors-summit/

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COVID Cure: Hydroxycloroquine, zinc, z-pack and a little demon sex

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Mock if you wish. She has treated 350 Covid patients and has not lost any.

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She's an outpatient Dr and not in Emergency Medicine.
I sent this article to my brother, who is an actual Emergency Dr treating patients. This is the response he sent me.


"We now have 4 major trials, all congruent in demonstrating hydroxychloroquine provides NO benefit in COVID-19.

1. Post exposure ppx: nejm.org/doi/full/10.10
2. RECOVERY (UK): medrxiv.org/content/10.110
3. ORCHID (USA): nih.gov/news-events/ne
4. SOLIDARITY (WHO): https://www.who.int/.../solidarity-clinical-trial-for...

We know this disease has a low incidence of severe illness. That doctor is an outpatient doctor, so people going to see her by definition are not very sick (in the framework of COVID). If they were sick, they would go to ER and get admitted. By the same logic I could give everyone lavender essential oils who is COVID+ and say that it works so well.

Their opinions are not backed by science. Science is apolitical."

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IseWolf22 said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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acslater1344 said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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I haven't read any of this thread lately, but here is a link to a video of a press conference yesterday in Washington, DC at the Capitol with several doctors. These doctors believe in using Hydroxycloroquine and getting the kids back to school. Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube have scrubbed this video because they say it's giving out misinformation. These doctors are on the frontline and have real experience with Covid 19. The main stream media will not show it because it helps Trump. These doctors believe in using the medication with zinc and a Z-pack. They make a very convincing case that we can get people back to work, kids back to school, and return to our normal lives. Watch it and make your own decision.

https://www.teapartypatriots.org/press-conference-americas-frontline-doctors-summit/

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COVID Cure: Hydroxycloroquine, zinc, z-pack and a little demon sex

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Mock if you wish. She has treated 350 Covid patients and has not lost any.

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She's an outpatient Dr and not in Emergency Medicine.
I sent this article to my brother, who is an actual Emergency Dr treating patients. This is the response he sent me.


"We now have 4 major trials, all congruent in demonstrating hydroxychloroquine provides NO benefit in COVID-19.

1. Post exposure ppx: nejm.org/doi/full/10.10
2. RECOVERY (UK): medrxiv.org/content/10.110
3. ORCHID (USA): nih.gov/news-events/ne
4. SOLIDARITY (WHO): https://www.who.int/.../solidarity-clinical-trial-for...

We know this disease has a low incidence of severe illness. That doctor is an outpatient doctor, so people going to see her by definition are not very sick (in the framework of COVID). If they were sick, they would go to ER and get admitted. By the same logic I could give everyone lavender essential oils who is COVID+ and say that it works so well.

Their opinions are not backed by science. Science is apolitical."

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This Yale professor's piece is backed by 12 studies. He says it works.

https://www.newsweek.com/key-defeating-covid-19-already-exists-we-need-start-using-it-opinion-1519535?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

I'll go with the Yale guy.

Ugh. Another quack

Mormad said:

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It's hard to get docs to agree that Tylenol helps a headache, but plenty have the freedom to give it or get it. I suspect the same should be done here

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Exactly. People respond differently to drugs. What helps one person's headache might no do anything for another. Not everyone gets the same side effects from the same chemo drug. If it might be useful, don't just dismiss it.

Mormad said:

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It's hard to get docs to agree that Tylenol helps a headache, but plenty have the freedom to give it or get it. I suspect the same should be done here

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Exactly. Some states have banned it's use and this is a drug that has been around for 65 years with very little side effects. One of the main doctors, Doctor Gold, said in the video that hydroxycloroquine is over the counter in many countries including Iran, but not available in many places in the U. S. She said that disturbed her greatly.

Also in the video they talk about when the first Sars virus came around in about 2005 and Fauci was head of NIH, they used cloroquine to treat it. Dr. Gold said that the characteristics of the first Sars was about 68% the same as Covid 19 and Fauci was pushing the use then.

As has been stated, different medicines work differently on different people, but some doctors get too tied up with peer reviewed studies that are controlled. These doctors in the video are having success treating the disease. Other doctors may not agree, but the object is to save lives and these doctors are doing it.

It's unfortunate that medicine, just like everything else from Little League Baseball on up is political. When the FDA slowed usage of the drug because of a mainly fake study that was published in Lancet(It was withdrawn two weeks after publication) then the drug became political. Saving lives should not be political, but because the media hates Trump it's into hyperdrive now.

Here is another story about Dr. Risch at Yale and a passage from something I believe he wrote for Newsweek.

https://www.theblaze.com/news/yale-epidemiologist-hydroxychloroquine-works-against-covid

In the northern Brazil state of Par, COVID-19 deaths were increasing exponentially. On April 6, the public hospital network purchased 75,000 doses of azithromycin and 90,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine. Over the next few weeks, authorities began distributing these medications to infected individuals. Even though new cases continued to occur, on May 22 the death rate started to plummet and is now about one-eighth what it was at the peak.

A reverse natural experiment happened in Switzerland. On May 27, the Swiss national government banned outpatient use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19. Around June 10, COVID-19 deaths increased four-fold and remained elevated. On June 11, the Swiss government revoked the ban, and on June 23 the death rate reverted to what it had been beforehand. People who die from COVID-19 live about three to five weeks from the start of symptoms, which makes the evidence of a causal relation in these experiments strong. Both episodes suggest that a combination of hydroxychloroquine and its companion medications reduces mortality and should be immediately adopted as the new standard of care in high-risk patients.

^I'd suggest you reconsider the claim that it has few side effects. Simply untrue.

The rationale for restricting its use is that its efficacy for Covid is dubious, however it is used for other conditions such as lupus. There is a finite production capacity.

Over prescribing it to patients who won't clearly benefit from it will create supply shortages for patients who ACTUALLY need it.

https://www.hss.edu/conditions_hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil-chloroquine-shortage-covid-19-coronavirus.asp

GoPack2008 said:

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^I'd suggest you reconsider the claim that it has few side effects. Simply untrue.

The rationale for restricting its use is that its efficacy for Covid is dubious, however it is used for other conditions such as lupus. There is a finite production capacity.

Over prescribing it to patients who won't clearly benefit from it will create supply shortages for patients who ACTUALLY need it.

https://www.hss.edu/conditions_hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil-chloroquine-shortage-covid-19-coronavirus.asp

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And if you had read the first thing in that link it says there have been recent shortages, but the producer was ramping up production. That would be a temporary side effect and it's produced fairly cheaply.

DrummerboyWolf said:

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GoPack2008 said:

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^I'd suggest you reconsider the claim that it has few side effects. Simply untrue.

The rationale for restricting its use is that its efficacy for Covid is dubious, however it is used for other conditions such as lupus. There is a finite production capacity.

Over prescribing it to patients who won't clearly benefit from it will create supply shortages for patients who ACTUALLY need it.

https://www.hss.edu/conditions_hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil-chloroquine-shortage-covid-19-coronavirus.asp

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And if you had read the first thing in that link it says there have been recent shortages, but the producer was ramping up production. That would be a temporary side effect and it's produced fairly cheaply.

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It's still the rationale for limiting its use.

There's still an upper limit on how much a manufacturer can make over a given time period. You would think NC State alumni would have some concept of the fact that manufacturing and factories are a finite, fixed physical resource.

So now they've cancelled the Fair.

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7/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
93,426
NC Deaths
1588
Currently Hospitalized
1134 <- 90% reporting (was 1142 at 89% yesterday) Higher % Lower Total. Stable
Completed Tests
1,312,757


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
888 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
196 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

504 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1084 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

283 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+19)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1604* deaths

2160 positive cases over 28,120 new tests. 7.7% positive rate.

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7/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
95,477
NC Deaths
1606
Currently Hospitalized
1180 <- 90% reporting (was 1134 at 91% yesterday) Higher % Higher Total. New High
Completed Tests
1,343,974


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
892 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
204 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+8)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

510 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
1096 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

293 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
Nursing Homes 147 -> 155
Resident Care 99 -> 100
Correctional 24 -> 25
Other 13 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1629* deaths

2051 positive cases over 31,217 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.
*DHHS added 31,217 new tests today but claims only 25,555 completed tests.

Deaths by Date of Death 7/17 - 18 new deaths, 1 previously missing.
7/16(3), 7/15(6), 7/14(3), 7/10(2), 7/9, 7/1, 6/28(2), 6/25
It appears one death may have been added that was previously missing a date.

Cumberland, Wake, and Meck each with 3 deaths reported today.

---

7/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
97,958
NC Deaths
1629
Currently Hospitalized
1154 <- XX% reporting (was 1180 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,379,143


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
897 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
210 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+23 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

522 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1107 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

300 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 155 -> 157
Resident Care 100 -> 104
Correctional 25 -> 25
Other 13 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1634* deaths

2481 positive cases over 35,619 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.

New high (by 19 cases) comes after last new high, maybe back to patterned reporting.

Day over day delta in completed tests is 35,619, but DHHS says it is only 23,440.

Deaths today, 3 Wake and 3 Meck again.
23 Deaths reported 7/18 by Date of Death:
7/17(4), 7/16(7), 7/15(3), 7/14(2), 7/12(5). Two deaths with no date.

Today's number of new tests is the highest delta day over day yet! Also there are some positive signs with plateauing when looking back 9 days based on Date of Specimen collection being mostly complete. Hopefully things can level or trend down soon.

---

7/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
99,778
NC Deaths
1634
Currently Hospitalized
1115 <- 86% reporting (was 1154 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,394,864


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
898 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
212 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

524 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1110 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

290 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-10)
Nursing Homes 157 -> 149
Resident Care 104 -> 103
Correctional 25 -> 24
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1651* deaths

1820 positive cases over 15721 new tests. 11.6% positive rate.

It looks like the reporting lag has settled on a pattern and being a Sunday we are seeing more electronic and less lab cases. We will see if any lag changes affect this new pattern (with the peak Saturday).
Part of the reason for the case drop on Sundays is that the last few days of the lagging data (9 days out) now fall on a weekend, so there are less of those lagged cases to report. We'd expect tomorrow to be about the same and then a small bump up on Tuesday as the lagged cases (9 days out) now start falling on a weekday again.


Going to review county data, but don't expect to see much on a Sunday.

Deaths today: 7/18, 7/17(3), 7/15

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7/20/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
101,046
NC Deaths
1642
Currently Hospitalized
1086 <- 86% reporting (was 1115 at 86% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,423,888


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
900 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
216 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

526 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1116 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

287 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-3)
Nursing Homes 149 -> 147
Resident Care 103 -> 102
Correctional 24 -> 24
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1676* deaths

1268 positive cases over 29024 new tests. 4.4% positive rate.

Dates of Death Reported 7/20
7/19(2), 7/17(2), 7/16, 7/10, 7/7, 7/6, 6/30, 6/26
8 deaths + 2 previously missing deaths given dates.

Second consecutive day of net drop in congregate outbreaks.

Cases really low. I expected low but not THAT low, so I don't know if that lag is recovered already or it is waiting to drop.

---

7/21/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
102,861
NC Deaths
1668
Currently Hospitalized
1179 <- 92% reporting (was 1086 at 86% yesterday) New high by 1
Completed Tests
1,458,997

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
906 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
225 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

537 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
1131 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

295 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
Nursing Homes 147 -> 150
Resident Care 102 -> 108
Correctional 24 -> 24
Other 14 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1680* deaths

1815 positive cases over 35103 new tests. 5.2% positive rate.

Delta Tests is 35103, but DHHS says 24087

Dates of Death Reported 7/21
7/20(5), 7/19(5), 7/18(4), 7/17(3), 7/16(3), 7/12, 7/11, 7/9, 7/4 and 2 missing dates

Cases back up a little, but unless there is some super duper lag.. things trending down some.

Hospitalizations big jump out of EHCP (maybe someone who hadn't been reporting?) and MHPC continues to go up despite cases going down. Other hospital groups stable with declining ICU. Would love more insight into what is going on in Charlotte that isn't elsewhere.

Seems like they don't care about finding location of death anymore, 9 unknown is kind of slack.

---

7/22/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
105,001
NC Deaths
1698
Currently Hospitalized
1137 <- 90% reporting (was 1179 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,491,820

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
915 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
231 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

552 Deaths assumed General Population (+15)
1146 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

304 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+9)
Nursing Homes 150 -> 154
Resident Care 108 -> 110
Correctional 24 -> 27
Other 13 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1703* deaths

2140 positive cases over 32823 new tests. 6.5% positive rate.

Delta Tests is 32,823, but DHHS says 31,815

Dates of Death Reported 7/22
7/21, 7/20(8), 7/19(3), 7/18(4), 7/17(3), 7/15, 7/14(4), 7/13(2), 6/28(2), 1 DHHS Missing Date = 29
1 I didn't find a date for. Double checking to see if I missed it.

County Deaths:
Brunswick, Burke(2), Cumberland, Gaston(2), Harnett, Hoke, Iredell(2), Meck(2), Montgomery, Moore(4), Nash(3), Pender, Randolph, Richmond, Union, Wake(6)

EDIT: RE HOSPITALIZATIONS. It looks like New Hanover Regional Medical Center DID NOT REPORT today. They account for 80%+ of hospitalized patients in SHPR so their ~50 missing patients is significant.

---

7/23/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
106,893
NC Deaths
1726
Currently Hospitalized
1188 <- 94% reporting (was 1137 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,524,643

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
929 Deaths are now Congregate (+14)
235 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

562 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1164 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+18)

314 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
Nursing Homes 154 -> 160
Resident Care 110 -> 114
Correctional 27 -> 26
Other 13 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1734* deaths

1892 positive cases over 31855 new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta Tests is 31,855, but DHHS says 30,430

Dates of Death Reported 7/23 - LAG DAY
7/22(3), 7/21(3), 7/20(3), 7/19(1), 7/18(1), 7/16(2), 7/15, 7/14(2), 7/12, 7/10, 7/9, 7/8, 6/30(2), 6/26, 6/11, 5/29(2), 5/17, and 1 missing date

It looks like they adjusted yesterday hospitalizations to be 1188 to match today and a new high. Still only 9 higher than 1 week ago.

Case trends still holding in decline as of 9 day lag window.

Still reviewing county data.
County Deaths
5 for Duplin
4 for Pitt
no other county more than 2.
There are your likely culprits for the lag.

Another oddity with county data. County reported cases today only add up to 1747. There are 145 cases that don't have an assignment. The last time that happened with that kind of difference came on the announcement of the extension of Phase 2.

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7/24/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
108,995
NC Deaths
1746
Currently Hospitalized
1182 <- 92% reporting (was 1188 at 94% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,550,297

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
931 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
244 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

571 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
1175 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

291Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-23)
Nursing Homes 160 -> 156
Resident Care 114 -> 95
Correctional 26 -> 25
Other 14 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1749* deaths

2102 positive cases over 25654 new tests. 8.2% positive rate.


Dates of Death Reported 7/24
7/23(3), 7/22(9), 7/21(3), 7/18(2), 7/17(2), 7/16, 7/15, 7/8, 7/2, 6/28, 6/25
4 deaths moved from date of death missing to chart.
1 additional death added that I can't account for, but it is what it is.

A lot of Resident Care facilities off the outbreak list today.

Still reviewing county data

Lag looks to be tightening. For the last few days things have been mostly complete at 7 days back.

It looks like those county cases that were not assigned yesterday were assigned today. County data is a +143 over reported cases vs the -145 yesterday.

---

7/25/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
111,092
NC Deaths
1778
Currently Hospitalized
1168 <- 95% reporting (was 1182 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,579,042

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
944 Deaths are now Congregate (+13)
247 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+32 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

587 Deaths assumed General Population (+16)
1191 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

298 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 156 -> 161
Resident Care 95 -> 96
Correctional 25 -> 26
Other 15 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1778* deaths

2094 positive cases over 28745 new tests. 7.3% positive rate.

Delta 28745, but DHHS claims 25417 Completed Tests


Dates of Death Reported 7/25 - NET 32 Deaths
7/24(5), 7/23(4), 7/22(4), 7/21(2), 7/20(2), 7/19(2), 7/17(2), 7/12, 7/10(2), 7/8, 7/6, 6/18, 5/31, 5/13

3 Deaths Added to DoD Missing.

1 Death REMOVED from 5/13

DoD was a tough one today. Lots of data and lag to do manually, but I got to 32.

Hospitalizations down slight. Decrease in case pattern holding.

Still downloading report data.

---

7/26/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
112,713
NC Deaths
1785
Currently Hospitalized
1170 <- 85% reporting (was 1168 at 95% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,613,385

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
947 Deaths are now Congregate (+3)
248 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

590 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
1195 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+4)

298 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 161 -> 160
Resident Care 96 -> 96
Correctional 26 -> 26
Other 15 -> 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1803* deaths

1621 positive cases over 34343 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.

Delta 34343, but DHHS claims 30619 Completed Tests


Dates of Death Reported 7/26 = 7
7/25, 7/23(2), 7/21, 7/8(2), and 1 Missing Date of Death

Reviewing county data.

3 of the 7 deaths were reported out of Wake.

Case trends seem to be going in the right direction.

DHHS is still going back and retroactively changing hospitalizations numbers to values other than what they reported on that day.

My only logic for hospitalizations (as cases have been declining for 3 weeks now) is that hospitals have allotted space for COVID and are filling it because it is available. Hospitalizations should be declining based on case data.

---

7/27/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
114,338
NC Deaths
1790
Currently Hospitalized
1169 <- 86% reporting (was 1170 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,635,476

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
947 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
251 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

592 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1198 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

298 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 160 -> 160
Resident Care 96 -> 96
Correctional 26 -> 26
Other 16 -> 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1813* deaths

1625 positive cases over 22091 new tests. 7.4% positive rate.


Dates of Death Reported 7/27 = 5
7/26, 7/25(4)

DHHS hasn't posted downloadable data, so will have to wait on county data.

Declining statewide case trend holding.

---

7/28/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
116,087
NC Deaths
1820
Currently Hospitalized
1244 <- 96% reporting (was 1169 at 86% yesterday) New High.
Completed Tests
1,658,937

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
962 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
257 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

601 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
1219 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+21)

280 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-18)
Nursing Homes 160 -> 155
Resident Care 96 -> 85
Correctional 26 -> 25
Other 16 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1831* deaths

1749 positive cases over 23497 new tests. 7.4% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 23497 but DHHS claims only 16631 completed tests


Dates of Death Reported 7/28 - 30 Deaths, mostly filling in last 2 weeks.
7/27(3), 7/26(8), 7/25(4), 7/24(3), 7/23(3), 7/22(2), 7/21, 7/20, 7/19, 7/17, 7/5 and 2 Deaths Reported with Missing Dates


New high in hospitalizations, also don't know that I have ever seen 96% reporting before. Which is weird because it wasn't a high day for new patients. As per usual MHPC, despite declining cases is all in on admits.

Getting some days of net decrease in cases congregate facilities. But deaths today also highly driven by congregate deaths.

Today's cases by date of collection included 8 cases from April. I am sure that is helpful.

Notable County Deaths Added:
Wake(7), Meck(5), Gaston(5), Forsyth(3). No other over 2.

---

7/29/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
116,087
NC Deaths
1865
Currently Hospitalized
1291 <- 91% reporting (was 1244 at 96% yesterday) ANOTHER New High.
Completed Tests
1,691,434

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
984 Deaths are now Congregate (+22)
270 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+13)
+45 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

611 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1254 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+35)

289 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+9)
Nursing Homes 155 -> 157
Resident Care 85 -> 89
Correctional 25 -> 27
Other 15 -> 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1847* deaths

1763 positive cases over 32,497 new tests. 5.4% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 32497 (4603 are from 3pm 7/28) but DHHS claims only 27464 completed tests


Dates of Death Reported 7/29 - 45 + 2 added deaths previously missing
7/28(2), 7/27(11), 7/26(3), 7/25(3), 7/24(2), 7/23(7), 7/22(4), 7/21(2), 7/20(2), 7/19(2), 7/18, 7/17(2), 7/16, 7/14, 7/9(2), 6/28, and 6/11

DHHS did a 3pm update on yesterday which added 4603 Completed Tests, but did not change the number of positives. Those cases will be included in my delta of Completed Tests for today. About 1600 Completed Tests were added to 7/28, I do not know where the remainder were added. Again, more late numbermucking.

Meck still driving the hospitalization increase, despite declining case numbers. Novant even said they had something like a 5 day patient time on non-critical and 8 day on ICU. No reason that shouldn't be bearing out in hospitalizations by now.

Big Death Day
56 Congregate and Unknown deaths the last 2 days

County Deaths
Catawba +7 (22 Total)
Forsyth +5 (49 Total, that is +8 last 2 days)
Wilson +4 (32 Total)
Cabarrus +3
Buncombe +3
Meck +3
Surry +3 (now 7 total)
Robeson +2
Haywood +2 (first 2 deaths)
Stanly +2 (8 Total)
Gaston +2
Alexander +1 (3 Total)
Burke +1
Caldwell +1 (9 Total, +2 last two days)
Craven +1
New Hanover +1
Rutherford +1
Union +1
Wake +1

A ton of small counties with deaths added.

Wayland said:

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County Deaths
Catawba +7 (22 Total)
Forsyth +5 (49 Total, that is +8 last 2 days)
Wilson +4 (32 Total)
Cabarrus +3
Buncombe +3
Meck +3
Surry +3 (now 7 total)
Robeson +2
Haywood +2 (first 2 deaths)
Stanly +2 (8 Total)
Gaston +2
Alexander +1 (3 Total)
Burke +1
Caldwell +1 (9 Total, +2 last two days)
Craven +1
New Hanover +1
Rutherford +1
Union +1
Wake +1

A ton of small counties with deaths added.

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Seems like today was a big data clean-up day. Here are the graphs of new Deaths by Date of Death and newly added Cases by Date of Specimen graphs. They went all the way back to 5/1 to add a case. For the cases added today, 1,032 are from last week. Either testing is slowing down or NCDHHS has a big backlog they are slow to clear. Of the deaths reported today, 22 of them are from last week.

Deaths by Date of Death for Deaths reported on 7/29:




Cases by Specimen Date for Cases reported on 7/29:

Thanks picked up a few mistakes I made in the date of deaths from that.

Below is a graph that shows the daily testing originally reported by NCDHHS and the testing now being reported on their website for the same days.

Any idea if the updated testing (numerator and denominator) is what's used when the % positive is calculated?

statefan91 said:

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Any idea if the updated testing (numerator and denominator) is what's used when the % positive is calculated?

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They don't release what the NC EDDS data set is separately, so we don't know for sure what their numerator and denominator are. Remember that as they talk 'transparency'.

VVV
I treat it as a 'made up number'. Since there is no transparency to how that sausage is made (and they constantly retroactively change it), I consider it a trash metric.

statefan91 said:

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Any idea if the updated testing (numerator and denominator) is what's used when the % positive is calculated?

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I have tried to figure it out how NCDHHS is calculating their percentages in the past and I can not get to the percentages they report. I have tried to solve backwards using the percentages they report and the daily positives and I do not get the same daily new tests. Wayland may have some ideas, but I have given up trying to figure out NCDHHS's methodology.

Looking forward to the goggle virtue signaling.

LOL - I have worn glasses / sunglasses occasionally with a mask and it drives me crazy with fogging so that's a no for me.

RNA can be detected for months but live virus not isolated past 9 days.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.25.20162107v1.full.pdf

Quote:

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We identified studies that attempted to isolate live virus. All eight studies that attempted virus isolation in respiratory samples successfully cultured viable virus within the first week of illness, No live virus was isolated from any respiratory samples taken after day 8 of symptoms in three studies beyond day 9 in two studies.

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Wayland said:

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statefan91 said:

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Any idea if the updated testing (numerator and denominator) is what's used when the % positive is calculated?

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They don't release what the NC EDDS data set is separately, so we don't know for sure what their numerator and denominator are. Remember that as they talk 'transparency'.

VVV
I treat it as a 'made up number'. Since there is no transparency to how that sausage is made (and they constantly retroactively change it), I consider it a trash metric.

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LOL. So if I'm reading my spreadsheet correctly, the state managed to conjure up 75 deaths over the last 2 days after only reporting 12 deaths the 2 days previous... now that is impressive!

Two stories about HCQ. One is an interview with Dr. Risch of Yale and he says that Fauci is running a "misinformation campaign" against the drug. The other story is how FDA director Stephen Hahn says that Doctors can use HCQ if they feel it's helping.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/yale-epidemiologist-accuses-fauci-running-disinformation-campaign

Here is the story and there is also an audio interview with Dr. Hahn.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/fda-boss-some-studies-suggest-benefit-hydroxychloroquine-covid-wont

GoPack2008 said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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GoPack2008 said:

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^I'd suggest you reconsider the claim that it has few side effects. Simply untrue.

The rationale for restricting its use is that its efficacy for Covid is dubious, however it is used for other conditions such as lupus. There is a finite production capacity.

Over prescribing it to patients who won't clearly benefit from it will create supply shortages for patients who ACTUALLY need it.

https://www.hss.edu/conditions_hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil-chloroquine-shortage-covid-19-coronavirus.asp

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And if you had read the first thing in that link it says there have been recent shortages, but the producer was ramping up production. That would be a temporary side effect and it's produced fairly cheaply.

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It's still the rationale for limiting its use.

There's still an upper limit on how much a manufacturer can make over a given time period. You would think NC State alumni would have some concept of the fact that manufacturing and factories are a finite, fixed physical resource.

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Here is a story and I believe a video of Peter Navarro saying the government is sitting on millions of doses of HCQ. One would think an N. C. State alum would have some concept of checking the facts.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/peter-navarro-spars-cnn-host-hydroxychloroquine