WBB bracket predictions

1,167 Views | 16 Replies | Last: 6 mo ago by Wolfer79
Wolfer79
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NC State #3 seed in Greenville SC regional
#1 South Carolina
#2 Stanford
#3 NC State
#4 Indiana

Raleigh Regional
NC State
LSU
Marquette
Coastal Carolina

Wolfer79
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http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

1/3
#3 seed in Greenville SC
#1 South Carolina
#2 Stanford
#3 NC State
#4 Indiana

Raleigh Regional
NC State
South Dakota
Oklahoma
Stony Brook
Wolfer79
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UPDATED Bracketology: https://t.co/himXKz12s5

No. 1 seeds: Baylor, Oregon, Oregon State, South Carolina https://t.co/cuW44zfdDE

NC State #3 seed
Greenville Regional

Raleigh pod
NC State
Oklahoma
Princeton
UMass

Wolfer79
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January 13
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

Still #3 seed but now in Dallas Regional with
#1 Baylor
#2 UCLA
#4 Texas A&M

Raleigh Regional
#3 NC State
#6 South Dakota
# 11 Texas
#14 UNC Greensboro or Southern who are tied for lead in a single bid conference
Wolfer79
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January 28

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

#2 seed in Portland Regional
#1 Oregon
#2 NC State
#3 Gonzaga
#4 DePaul

Raleigh Regional
#2 NC State
#7 Rutgers
#10 St. John's
#15 UNC Greensboro
dj5377
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It's nice to see us move up to the 2 line this week. It's also significant that Louisville continues to hold the 1 seed. That just means that a one seed could be up for grabs for the ACC.

A long way to go, but right now we are looking at SEC, Big 12, Pac 12 and ACC for the 1 seeds. Connecticut looms large as not being on that list.

UConn still has to play #3 Oregon, and at #1 South Carolina. They could certainly play their way in or out of a 1 seed.

Stanford and UCLA could play their way into a second 1 seed for the Pac 12 as well.

The RPI doesn't like NC State right now (#18), and loves the Big Ten (Iowa #5 and Maryland #9), if you use WarrenNolans predicted RPI, it has Maryland finishing at #4 and Iowa finishing at #11. Meanwhile, it has NC State favored in all of their remaining games, finishing the RPI at #6.

If the RPI finishes as WarrenNolan predicts, NC State is #6 win wins over #4 Maryland and #5 Louisville, with Stanford at #7 with 4 losses and UConn at #8 with 3 losses. That snapshot look would put NC State as a 1 seed. Of course, then you have to play the conference tournament, which would mean probably having to beat Louisville on a neutral floor, which would either solidify our spot if we win, or bump Louisville back to the 1 line if they win it.

Long, long way to go here, but you can see things taking shape.
89_Grad
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dj5377 said:

It's nice to see us move up to the 2 line this week. It's also significant that Louisville continues to hold the 1 seed. That just means that a one seed could be up for grabs for the ACC.

A long way to go, but right now we are looking at SEC, Big 12, Pac 12 and ACC for the 1 seeds. Connecticut looms large as not being on that list.

UConn still has to play #3 Oregon, and at #1 South Carolina. They could certainly play their way in or out of a 1 seed.

Stanford and UCLA could play their way into a second 1 seed for the Pac 12 as well.

The RPI doesn't like NC State right now (#18), and loves the Big Ten (Iowa #5 and Maryland #9), if you use WarrenNolans predicted RPI, it has Maryland finishing at #4 and Iowa finishing at #11. Meanwhile, it has NC State favored in all of their remaining games, finishing the RPI at #6.

If the RPI finishes as WarrenNolan predicts, NC State is #6 win wins over #4 Maryland and #5 Louisville, with Stanford at #7 with 4 losses and UConn at #8 with 3 losses. That snapshot look would put NC State as a 1 seed. Of course, then you have to play the conference tournament, which would mean probably having to beat Louisville on a neutral floor, which would either solidify our spot if we win, or bump Louisville back to the 1 line if they win it.

Long, long way to go here, but you can see things taking shape.
Nice analysis. WHat do you think will happen if we lose a close one to Louisville in Raleigh in two weeks, but then beat them at ACC tourney for automatic bid? With a split like that would both Louisville and State end up on 2 line? Unlike just about everyone else in the top 8, we haven't played any of the other potential 1 and 2 seeds. Will that schedule weakness be held against us?

Memo to Wes and Boo...do whatever it takes to get a home and home with South Carolina.
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.
dj5377
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89_Grad said:


Nice analysis. WHat do you think will happen if we lose a close one to Louisville in Raleigh in two weeks, but then beat them at ACC tourney for automatic bid? With a split like that would both Louisville and State end up on 2 line? Unlike just about everyone else in the top 8, we haven't played any of the other potential 1 and 2 seeds. Will that schedule weakness be held against us?

Memo to Wes and Boo...do whatever it takes to get a home and home with South Carolina.
Excellent question. I guess I would say this. If either Louisville or NC State win out, I think they get the 1 seed as long as UConn loses at least 1 other game. If Louisville and NC State both win out except for splitting the two games against each other, then it's going to hinge on how the rest of the country shakes out. I guess I tend to think that the winner of the ACC tournament in that situation would get the 1 seed, but that's dependent on favorites winning across the country. (Maryland is warrennolan predicted to win out and probably move to the 2 line, so that would be the big nonconference win for us. They have to actually have that success down the stretch, but that is the win that allows us to be in the discussion)

South Carolina would need to beat UConn, and keep Mississippi State from running the table (if MSU won out til the SEC final)

The Pac 12 would need to settle on one dominant team, which at the moment is Oregon after beating Oregon State twice. But Stanford sits at RPI 4, and has games against #2, #6, and #13 all at home. Similarly, UCLA sits at #6, with games at #4, and home games with #2 and #13. Two Pac 12 #1 seeds is certainly in play. Particularly in a scenario where the ACC champ has 2 losses.

In the Big 12, Baylor looks be be pretty set, but with two games against #30 Texas, the Longhorns could do us a double favor since we have that win on their resume. Baylor however, has no more games against ranked teams, and they have a win at UConn in their pocket. Hard to see them giving up the 1 seed. If they were to lose a couple of games against unranked opponents, that essentially opens up a spot that is pretty much locked up.

UConn sits at #8 and with two more chances to impress. Hosting RPI #2 Oregon, and at RPI #1 South Carolina. If they don't get either of those, they would sit at 0-3 against the top 10, with only #19 Depaul as their defining win. (NC State would have wins over #4 Maryland and #5 Louisville (predicted end of year ranking per warrennolan) To be honest, if UConn only has 2 losses on the year, and they are to two teams that are 1 seeds, it's hard to imagine the committee wanting to overall UConn for NC State with 2 losses, even if our second best win is better than theirs.


A lot of rambling in this post, so to answer the original question. I think a 1 loss ACC champion is a 1 seed as long as UConn loses 1 more game. I think a 2 loss ACC champion needs a lot of things to go right to get a one seed. Even more so if it's NC State because our big non conference win (Maryland) needs to make a run where as Louisville's big nonconference win (Oregon) already looks great.




Wolfer79
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February 3
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

#2 seed in Portland Regional
#1 Oregon
#2 NC State
#3 Gonzaga
#4 Northwestern

Raleigh Regional
#2 NC State
#7 Kentucky
#10 Drake
#15 Campbell
dj5377
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The NCAA comes out with their first (of 2) "top 16" releases tonight. This is a snapshot of who they say would be ranked 1-16 if the tournament started today.

So I decided to take a guess with them. Remember the women still go by the RPI, and at the moment NC State sits at #16 in the RPI. When I first started to look at it, I was thinking I would put us as a 3, but our 6-0 mark against Quad 1 was too hard to pass up for #2. Here is my guess at tonight's reveal:

1. South Carolina
2. Oregon
3. Baylor
4. Louisville

5. Stanford
6. Connecticut
7. NC State
8. UCLA

9. Maryland
10. Oregon State
11. Mississippi State
12. Gonzaga

13. DePaul
14. Iowa
15. Northwestern
16. Florida State


For what it's worth comparing to ESPN, my 1s at the same. My twos are the same except I have UCLA instead of Oregon State. My 3s at the same except for the same UCLA/Oregon State swap, and I swapped in Maryland over Iowa.

My 4s have Depaul and Northwestern the same, Iowa instead of Maryland, and then I put Florida State in that last slot. ESPN has Indiana. They could go a bunch of different ways on that slot. Reward Missouri State or Central Michigan for gaudy records, but limited big wins. Reward Indiana, Texas A&M or LSU for higher RPI. But I ultimately settled on Florida State because they are 5-1 against Quad 1, including wins over LSU and Texas A&M. I'm overlooking their 3 losses against teams not in the field. They are a tough case, but generally the committee rewards you for who you beat, not punish for who you lose to. We will see though.

Wolfer79
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Wolfer79
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February 11
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

NC State #1 seed in Fort Wayne Regional

#1 NC State
#2 Maryland
#3 Oregon State
#4 Gonzaga

Raleigh Regional
#1 NC State
#8 Florida Gulf Coast
#9 Arkansas
#16 Jackson State
Wolfer79
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http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

#3 seed Greenville Regional

#1 South Carolina
#2 Stanford
#3 NC State
#4 Iowa

Raleigh Regional
#3 NC State
#6 Princeton
#11 Marquette
#14 Belmont

5 ACC teams
Louisville #2 seed in Fort Wayne
NC State #3 seed in Greenville
Florida State #5 seed in Portland
Virginia Tech #7 seed in Portland
Duke #9 seed in Dallas

#1 seeds
South Carolina
Baylor
Oregon
Maryland
Wolfer79
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http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

#2 seed Greenville Regional
#1 South Carolina
#2 NC State
#3 UCLA
#4 Gonzaga

Raleigh Regional
#2 NC State
#7 Arkansas
#10 Purdue
#15 Campbell
Wolfer79
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http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

March 1
11:45pm

NC State #3 seed in Greenville Regional
#1 South Carolina
#2 Stanford
#3 NC State
#4 Indiana

Raleigh Regional
#3 NC State
#6 Kentucky
#11 Purdue
#14 Coastal Carolina
Wolfer79
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Greenville Regional:
No. 1 South Carolina,
No. 8 UCLA,
No. 10 NC State,
No. 15 Oregon State

The Gamecocks were perfect in the SEC and haven't lost since November. They will be in Greenville, South Carolina, for the SEC tournament, and then could make that short trip from Columbia again for the regionals. NC State struggled in a stretch of losing three of four recently, but ended the regular season with two victories and the No. 2 seed in the ACC tournament.

https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28824503/5-pac-12-teams-top-16-tourney-seeds-latest-reveal
Wolfer79
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March 9
10am
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

#2 seed in Greenville Regional
#1 South Carolina
#2 NC State
#3 UCLA
#4 Oregon State

Raleigh Regional
#2 NC State
#7 Texas Christian
#10 Marquette
#15 Stony Brook

Field and bracket will be announced March 16 7pm on ESPN
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