89_Grad said:
Nice analysis. WHat do you think will happen if we lose a close one to Louisville in Raleigh in two weeks, but then beat them at ACC tourney for automatic bid? With a split like that would both Louisville and State end up on 2 line? Unlike just about everyone else in the top 8, we haven't played any of the other potential 1 and 2 seeds. Will that schedule weakness be held against us?
Memo to Wes and Boo...do whatever it takes to get a home and home with South Carolina.
Excellent question. I guess I would say this. If either Louisville or NC State win out, I think they get the 1 seed as long as UConn loses at least 1 other game. If Louisville and NC State both win out except for splitting the two games against each other, then it's going to hinge on how the rest of the country shakes out. I guess I tend to think that the winner of the ACC tournament in that situation would get the 1 seed, but that's dependent on favorites winning across the country. (Maryland is warrennolan predicted to win out and probably move to the 2 line, so that would be the big nonconference win for us. They have to actually have that success down the stretch, but that is the win that allows us to be in the discussion)
South Carolina would need to beat UConn, and keep Mississippi State from running the table (if MSU won out til the SEC final)
The Pac 12 would need to settle on one dominant team, which at the moment is Oregon after beating Oregon State twice. But Stanford sits at RPI 4, and has games against #2, #6, and #13 all at home. Similarly, UCLA sits at #6, with games at #4, and home games with #2 and #13. Two Pac 12 #1 seeds is certainly in play. Particularly in a scenario where the ACC champ has 2 losses.
In the Big 12, Baylor looks be be pretty set, but with two games against #30 Texas, the Longhorns could do us a double favor since we have that win on their resume. Baylor however, has no more games against ranked teams, and they have a win at UConn in their pocket. Hard to see them giving up the 1 seed. If they were to lose a couple of games against unranked opponents, that essentially opens up a spot that is pretty much locked up.
UConn sits at #8 and with two more chances to impress. Hosting RPI #2 Oregon, and at RPI #1 South Carolina. If they don't get either of those, they would sit at 0-3 against the top 10, with only #19 Depaul as their defining win. (NC State would have wins over #4 Maryland and #5 Louisville (predicted end of year ranking per warrennolan) To be honest, if UConn only has 2 losses on the year, and they are to two teams that are 1 seeds, it's hard to imagine the committee wanting to overall UConn for NC State with 2 losses, even if our second best win is better than theirs.
A lot of rambling in this post, so to answer the original question. I think a 1 loss ACC champion is a 1 seed as long as UConn loses 1 more game. I think a 2 loss ACC champion needs a lot of things to go right to get a one seed. Even more so if it's NC State because our big non conference win (Maryland) needs to make a run where as Louisville's big nonconference win (Oregon) already looks great.