Gulfstream4 said:
Civilized said:
Gulfstream4 said:
Civilized said:
Gulfstream4 said:
Civilized said:
TVPack said:
The tariffs are looking like one of these typical Trump things where he announces some massive policy change, extracts some mostly symbolic concessions, then declares victory.
I will give the devil his due: he's very good at creating these distractions from the real work behind the scenes, viz., the illegal firings of career civil servants, Musk and his 20 year old henchmen infiltrating / disrupting government agencies without any legal basis, etc.
Exactly.
I'll ask again do think 8 million illegals will flood the border and do you think the cartels will get as much drugs across the the border this time?
8 million? If we're making up numbers why don't we just say a kagillion?
Nobody that's not a quack thinks that there were 8 million crossers under Biden.
"Not get as much drugs across the border" isn't the right question to ask.
The question to ask is "will there be consequentially less fentanyl in the US as a result of Trump's fake tough guy act that definitely embarrasses the United States amongst our allies and may well have significant negative economic impacts for our country?"
That answer is almost assuredly 'no'.
Given that almkst 90% of the fentanyl that comes in is smuggled in by US citizens, even a significant reduction in fentanyl smuggled in by illegals will likely only reduce the fentanyl supply in the US by very low single digit amounts - 2% or 3% of the overall supply, tops.
There are much more effective ways to combat fentanyl OD's than this, they just don't get you all frothy.
Okay I'll ask do you think just as many illegals will flood Trumps border as they did Biden's border? Yes or no?
Do you think more or less fentanyl will enter the U.S. under Trump as did with Biden?
I think we all know the answer but you will talk in circles to not say it.
What are your recommendations on combating fentanyl OD's? Would reducing the amount crossing the border not be a good start?
Translation:
No
No
I got nothing but hot air.
Thanks
No, there will be no discernible improvement to the net level of drug supply in this country (fentanyl or otherwise) due to Trump's tariffs/border policy. Too little of the supply is brought in by illegals for border policies governing illegal immigration to move the needle as an effective means to combat addiction and OD deaths. Almost all the illegal drugs that enter this country are brought in by American citizens and nationals.
No, focusing on border policy is not a good start to combat fentanyl OD's. Cutting off drug supply has never been successful in this country as a means to reduce OD's. Again, only a tiny fraction - small single-digit percentages - of fentanyl enters this country via an illegal southern border crossing.
Reducing the fentanyl supply by 1.5% - if that even happens - and expecting that to consequentially reduce deaths won't work because the fentanyl market isn't supply-constrained. Even absent the tiny amount of fentanyl that crosses the southern border, there is still more than enough fentanyl in this country to literally kill every American. You have to reduce demand and/or increase treatment options.
For fentanyl and other opiods, which account for more than 70% of OD deaths in this country, a much more direct way to reduce OD's is to get Narcan in literally as many hands as possible around the country - addicts, their family members and friends, first responders, community members, basically anyone that could come into contact with an OD'ing user. That would have more impact than any drug war measure you could possible dream up.
Regarding immigration policy, migrant encounters at the border were already down over 80% from their peak by the time Biden left office, to around 58k/month.
Do I expect crossings to continue to decline under Trump? Definitely yes given his and his base's extreme focus on the issue. I'm confident he'll drive those numbers down further.