Gulfstream4 said:
Civilized said:
Gulfstream4 said:
Werewolf said:
As I've posted here numerous times, the MSM is a significant part of the crime family. Free airwaves - publicly funded - for propaganda.
Just like their "pollling," it serves two purposes. It keeps their low information, pop culture, everyone hates Trump just like I do base engaged and it discourages conservative turnout.
Oooh busted. The scary MSM overlords are at it again.
Now weed out all the unopposed and noncompetitive races and crunch the numbers, and also note which are incumbents, focus on the competitive races, and tell me what you find.
Y'all and Libs of TikTok-adjacent bootlickers
I stopped right here^ at "bootlickers". I expect this from Sampty but from you is disappointing.
To be clear I wasn't calling you or other people on here bootlickers.
Libs of TikTok and other similar sites are, though. They're just mouthpieces, bordering on propaganda. There's zero critical analysis. It's all rah-rah bootlicking.
Some of that does carry over to here, where there's often little attempt to parse, dive into nuance, or actually get at the meat of an issue.
The "polls are out to get us" victimhood is not founded in any sort of evidence, and makes no rational sense.
First of all, polls are historically equally accurate (or innaccurate) when comparing R and D candidates in other presidential elections and downballot races, *except* when Trump is running, for a variety of plausible reasons. Yes, polls have a hard time capturing Trump's coalition. That is true.
But Trump's coalition contains disproportionately large numbers of people who are:
- less likely to have college degrees;
- less likely to trust institutions;
- less likely to answer unsolicited phone calls;
- less likely to participate in surveys generally; and
- in some cases, less likely to be captured adequately by the sampling methods pollsters use.
Also, polling innaccuracy cuts both ways. Remember the Red Wave that was predicted in 2022 that never materialized? Did those polls that overstated support for Republican candidates "discourage Democratic turnout?" No, Democratic turnout was actually historically high for a midterm election, *despite* loads of prominent right-leaning pollsters dramatically inflating Republican candidate support. Polling bias is quantifiable, and if you look at polling analyses over time they shift back and forth between R and D bias.
Ironically, the same thing that bites pollsters when Trump is on the ballot (they can't accurately gauge who will vote) bit pollsters in 2022, except in 2022, they dramatically understated how many Dems would turn out. As it turns out, Dobbs was a huge motivator; D's turned out in significant numbers, and the Red Wave ended up being a surprisingly strong D showing instead.
Most importantly, there's simply no evidence that unfavorable polling decreases support for the alleged underdog candidate. If anything, it serves as a motivator to turn out.
