Daviewolf83 said:

---

Some updates on vaccinations and vaccine development:

1. On Face the Nation this morning, Dr. Fauci Dr. Anthony Fauci said the Biden Administration's vaccination goal is 100 million "shots in arms within 100 days" and not 100 people vaccinated. He estimated this will mean 67 million people will be vaccinated. Some will be fully vaccinated and some will have received one dose.

Personally, I believe the 100 million doses in 100 days is not a new goal, since we were already tracking to this number prior to President Biden taking office. It is basically "sleeves out of his vest", since it is an accomplishment that would have likely occurred without any additional action on his administration's part, beyond what is already being done to ramp up vaccinations. A more aggressive goal would be 150 to 200 million vaccine doses in 100 days. There are indications we will have enough vaccine supply to achieve a higher goal and the states are starting to show significant improvements in vaccination rates.

As I have indicated before, I am tracking against this target, both for the US and NC and will provide updates starting next week with regards to how we are doing in meeting this goal.

2. Reports indicate the Johnson and Johnson vaccine trial could be close to concluding and there could be a read-out in the next couple of weeks. This was actually expected by some this past week, but it appears the reports are not ready yet. Dr. Fauci said a couple of days ago that we could have the J&J vaccine approved by mid-February. It might be possible if J&J submits their data and EUA to the FDA the first week of February, but it will be tight. A J&J board member said they may have 100 million doses available this Spring by end of April, but other reports I have seen indicate this may be difficult. Hopefully, we will get more clarity on supply in a couple of weeks when the EUA is filed. Two advantages of the J&J vaccine are that it does not need to be kept at super-cold temperatures (refrigerator temps are fine) and it only requires one dose, so supplies do not need to be reserved for a second dose.

3. For the AstraZeneca vaccine, it is still going through trials in the US. It was approved for use in the UK in December and Brazil in January. The AstraZeneca vaccine is a vector vaccine, like the J&J vaccine. However, it will require two shots to be fully effective, unlike the one-shot J&J vaccine. The trial results for the US and other countries have been a little confusing, but it appears efficacy could be around 70%. While good, this is not as effective as the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. The AstraZeneca vaccine could be submitted for EUA by the end of March.

4. The Novavax vaccine entered Phase 3 trials in December and they are enrolling 30,000 participants in the US and Mexico. The vaccine requires two doses, given 21 days apart. Novavax expects to have results for this trial by early first quarter of this year.

5. There was a very good article posted yesterday on Operation Warp Speed and how well it worked in getting Covid-19 vaccines developed. I encourage everyone to read it. It was written by someone I have followed on Twitter for months - Alicia Smith. She has been on top of the vaccine development news for months. You can read the article at the following link:

Operation Warp Speed's Success

---

Daviewolf83 said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Biden raises the bar on vaccines and suggests US will get to 1.5 million a day

Good call. The bar needed to be raised from 1M/day. In early December, when we were only vaccinating around 300K/day, 1MM/day seemed like a reasonable goal but by the time Biden took office we weren't far off from averaging 1MM/day already. It wasn't a very ambitious goal anymore once we got to mid-Jan.

Will be interested to see how far they can push the envelope, and how many are getting vaccinated per day in 3 months.

---

I agree. We are doing over 1M a day now and as supply improves, it is not unreasonable to think 150M is very attainable. I think 150M should be a goal and 200M should be an aspirational goal. We should have supply to support up to, if not more than 200M by May.

Some not so good news is coming out on the AstraZeneca vaccine. Some reports appeared today that suggest the vaccine's efficacy for 65+ is only 8%. If so, it is very possible that it will only be approved for younger people. This is apparently how it is being approved in Germany. Of course, AstraZeneca is saying the reporting is in error, but people who have seen the data that is being reviewed in Germany say the reporting is accurate. I guess we will find out soon.

---

Daviewolf83 said:

---

Today's vaccination updates for the US and NC, per Bloomberg. For some reason, the CDC did not update their numbers today:

US Vaccinations
Total Doses Available: 41,418,325
Total Doses Administered: 23,461,494
% of Available Doses Administered: 56.6%

NC Vaccinations:
Total Doses Available: 1,246,600
Total Doses Administered: 676,037
% of Available Doses Administered: 54.2% <== significant improvement in usage in the past several days

If you have not seen the news today, it is being reported that many people in NC who had appointments to get the vaccine have had their appointments cancelled. This apparently is being caused by:

1. Reserving vaccine doses for people who will need their second dose
2. Reallocating supply to sites in the state that are performing more large-scale vaccination events. For example, in Charlotte they are doing vaccinations at Charlotte Motor Speedway and due to how effectively they are getting shots in arms, more of the supply is going to this site.

The good news is the reallocation will help to expedite getting shots in arms. However, some of the rural counties (and even some like Wake Co) will see their supply cut, since they have not scheduled any large events or do not have the ability to conduct these type of events.

---

PackMom said:

---

Cone had to reschedule over 10,000 people due to the reallocation to Charlotte. Wake County expected 3000 and got less than 1000. But for some reason Alamance County was expecting 975 and got about 2000. How are they supposed to schedule the vaccinations when the state does this?

---

Mormad said:

---

Yep. With the R0 3 wks ago they were predicting 350 admitted by feb1. We were just under 300 a week ago. So 3 wks ago they planned the shutdown. We're now down to like 220, and only 20 in the unit and 10 tubed. Things are looking up. And until this week, every day I'd walk in to round there'd be a line around the corner of folks waiting in line to roll up their sleeves.

---

Daviewolf83 said:

---

If you have not seen the news today, it is being reported that many people in NC who had appointments to get the vaccine have had their appointments cancelled. This apparently is being caused by:

1. Reserving vaccine doses for people who will need their second dose
2. Reallocating supply to sites in the state that are performing more large-scale vaccination events. For example, in Charlotte they are doing vaccinations at Charlotte Motor Speedway and due to how effectively they are getting shots in arms, more of the supply is going to this site.

The good news is the reallocation will help to expedite getting shots in arms. However, some of the rural counties (and even some like Wake Co) will see their supply cut, since they have not scheduled any large events or do not have the ability to conduct these type of events.

---

Mormad said:

---

Israel is reporting a 60% reduction in hospitalizations in those over 60 23 days after vaccination.

Haven't read the study, but Canada has been looking at colchicine since March and they're saying it has been effective in reducing hospitalizations and mortality.

Here, the curve has flattened so quickly, they are rolling out a plan by this afternoon to ramp up elective surgeries again. Great for the community we serve.

---