Is Green Valley still covid-only?Mormad said:
Btw, our numbers are up big. Over 80 in the hospital. Icu numbers not horrible.
Coronavirus
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Yes
Thanks.
Utah's hospitals prepare to ration care as a record number of coronavirus patients flood their ICUs
'At Capacity': Covid-19 Patients Push U.S. Hospitals to Brink
Hospitals Are Reeling Under a 46 Percent Spike in Covid-19 Patients
El Paso COVID-19 hospitalizations near 900; Fort Bliss sees 'steep increases' in cases
Coronavirus Is Roaring Back In Colorado With Record-High Cases
As Georgia cases increase, so is the number of patients seeking hospital care for COVID-19
Philly considering new restrictions as cases now exceed the city's ability to track them; as Pa. cases spike, another uptick at Penn State
Only 25 ICU beds open in North Dakota; US sees most new COVID-19 cases in 1 week
Wisconsin faces Covid-19 crisis as coronavirus cases continue to rise, governor says
614 Minnesota hospital beds filled with COVID-19 patients
Paris, Madrid and Rome to applaud exhausted nurses and doctors risking their lives to save others. The U.K. had a similar "clap for our carers"
Daily record of new coronavirus cases, deaths shattered Tuesday
COVID-19 patients in the hospital in Illinois reach early June levels
Florida adds 4,298 coronavirus cases and 57 deaths Tuesday
El Paso Sets Curfew After Running Out of ICU Beds for COVID Patients: 'We Are in a Crisis Stage'
BTO - You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet! Opinion - Covid - 19 will be worse on Dec. 4th than Nov. 4th and it will be worse on Jan. 4th than Dec. 4th and it will be worse on Feb. 4th than Jan. 4th SCIENCE. If you have not loaded up on toilet paper (et al), remember cisco told you! Oh, and testing does not cause people to go to the hospital or ICU! Pray for caretakers and the people of earth. Opinion - football season will not make it to the end because people did not care enough to make it happen.
We do have better treatments than last year and vaccines should be on the way at some point. We'll need 80% of the people to take the vaccine when a good one is on line.
'At Capacity': Covid-19 Patients Push U.S. Hospitals to Brink
Hospitals Are Reeling Under a 46 Percent Spike in Covid-19 Patients
El Paso COVID-19 hospitalizations near 900; Fort Bliss sees 'steep increases' in cases
Coronavirus Is Roaring Back In Colorado With Record-High Cases
As Georgia cases increase, so is the number of patients seeking hospital care for COVID-19
Philly considering new restrictions as cases now exceed the city's ability to track them; as Pa. cases spike, another uptick at Penn State
Only 25 ICU beds open in North Dakota; US sees most new COVID-19 cases in 1 week
Wisconsin faces Covid-19 crisis as coronavirus cases continue to rise, governor says
614 Minnesota hospital beds filled with COVID-19 patients
Paris, Madrid and Rome to applaud exhausted nurses and doctors risking their lives to save others. The U.K. had a similar "clap for our carers"
Daily record of new coronavirus cases, deaths shattered Tuesday
COVID-19 patients in the hospital in Illinois reach early June levels
Florida adds 4,298 coronavirus cases and 57 deaths Tuesday
El Paso Sets Curfew After Running Out of ICU Beds for COVID Patients: 'We Are in a Crisis Stage'
BTO - You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet! Opinion - Covid - 19 will be worse on Dec. 4th than Nov. 4th and it will be worse on Jan. 4th than Dec. 4th and it will be worse on Feb. 4th than Jan. 4th SCIENCE. If you have not loaded up on toilet paper (et al), remember cisco told you! Oh, and testing does not cause people to go to the hospital or ICU! Pray for caretakers and the people of earth. Opinion - football season will not make it to the end because people did not care enough to make it happen.
We do have better treatments than last year and vaccines should be on the way at some point. We'll need 80% of the people to take the vaccine when a good one is on line.
LOL
It'll all end next Tuesday. LOLwilmwolf80 said:
LOL
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I was just looking at some hospital data for NC and I thought others would find this information helpful. While daily new cases have increased recently in NC, the percentage of "active" cases that are hospitalized has remained relatively constant, if not "down" slightly. Unlike the early days of the virus where we saw much higher percentages of active cases hospitalized, this does not seem to be the case. It is likely due to a better understanding of the virus and the best ways to treat them.
Even more interesting is to the total daily hospitalizations versus the estimated "active" cases. I think this graph does a good job in showing that not all cases are the same and even more so, do not always lead to increases in hospitalizations. The bump in active cases you see in late August/early September are due to the cases associated with large numbers of students returning to universities. While the active cases increased significantly during this time, it did not lead to an increase in hospitalizations.
As we know, the vast majority of people under the age of 24 do not see see severe impacts from Covid-19 and they definitely require less hospitalization. Currently, only 1% of all hospitalizations in NC are people 17 years old and younger and only 5% of all hospitalizations are people under the age of 30. On the other hand, 60% of the current hospitalizations are aged 60 and older and almost 20% are 80 years old or older. While overall hospitalizations are up, the total capacity of beds, ICU beds, and ventilators appear to be in good shape, as you can see from the graph below.
Even more important to look at is the percentage of hospital patients in ICU. As you can see, the percentage of patients in ICU (Green line) is much lower now than it was just a month or two ago and it is hold steady in the upper 20% range. ICU percentages are important to look at, since these are typically the most severe cases and as such, the ones with the worst outcomes overall. While hospitalization numbers are up, it does appear the cases right now are not as severe as in the past. This is most likely due to a much better understanding of the virus and the better treatment protocols available.
Even more interesting is to the total daily hospitalizations versus the estimated "active" cases. I think this graph does a good job in showing that not all cases are the same and even more so, do not always lead to increases in hospitalizations. The bump in active cases you see in late August/early September are due to the cases associated with large numbers of students returning to universities. While the active cases increased significantly during this time, it did not lead to an increase in hospitalizations.
As we know, the vast majority of people under the age of 24 do not see see severe impacts from Covid-19 and they definitely require less hospitalization. Currently, only 1% of all hospitalizations in NC are people 17 years old and younger and only 5% of all hospitalizations are people under the age of 30. On the other hand, 60% of the current hospitalizations are aged 60 and older and almost 20% are 80 years old or older. While overall hospitalizations are up, the total capacity of beds, ICU beds, and ventilators appear to be in good shape, as you can see from the graph below.
Even more important to look at is the percentage of hospital patients in ICU. As you can see, the percentage of patients in ICU (Green line) is much lower now than it was just a month or two ago and it is hold steady in the upper 20% range. ICU percentages are important to look at, since these are typically the most severe cases and as such, the ones with the worst outcomes overall. While hospitalization numbers are up, it does appear the cases right now are not as severe as in the past. This is most likely due to a much better understanding of the virus and the better treatment protocols available.
But Davie, the hospitals are "on the brink"!
Great info Davie. I noticed myself the other day that the university spike in cases had basically ZERO impact on the hospitalization trends (at the time). Was interesting to see the case line bump up but hospitalizations not shift.
I think nationally this latest wave is looking to peak in 1-2 weeks based on what I have seen data people calculate on trajectory. Again, just models and assumptions, but will interesting to see if they are right.
I think NC case growth rate has slowed a bit in the last few weeks... will see if that holds and if things start to turn again (not adjusted for testing volume).
It is interesting to watch the trajectories of various states and countries and how seasonal components could be entering into all this.
I think nationally this latest wave is looking to peak in 1-2 weeks based on what I have seen data people calculate on trajectory. Again, just models and assumptions, but will interesting to see if they are right.
I think NC case growth rate has slowed a bit in the last few weeks... will see if that holds and if things start to turn again (not adjusted for testing volume).
It is interesting to watch the trajectories of various states and countries and how seasonal components could be entering into all this.
This one may peak in a couple of weeks, but you know it's going to go up after Thanksgiving and again after Christmas. Presumably that's why schools are delaying spring semester until mid January.
Lazy NC update 10/28
NC - 10/28 *with* COVID Deaths Update. +34
Dates of Death Reported 10/27(5), 10/26(6), 10/25(4), 10/24(5), 10/22(3), 10/21(2), 10/19(2), 10/15, 10/13(2), 10/10, 10/9, 10/6, 10/4, 9/29 1 missing DoD assigned dates (7 total missing)
Setting: 16 Congregate, 8 Unknown, 10 General
Cases still high by reported. Date of specimen seems to be levelling still (or at least not rapid increase, yet).
Hospitalizations down a couple over yesterday. Still Triad and Meck driving the hospital bus.
NC - 10/28 *with* COVID Deaths Update. +34
Dates of Death Reported 10/27(5), 10/26(6), 10/25(4), 10/24(5), 10/22(3), 10/21(2), 10/19(2), 10/15, 10/13(2), 10/10, 10/9, 10/6, 10/4, 9/29 1 missing DoD assigned dates (7 total missing)
Setting: 16 Congregate, 8 Unknown, 10 General
Cases still high by reported. Date of specimen seems to be levelling still (or at least not rapid increase, yet).
Hospitalizations down a couple over yesterday. Still Triad and Meck driving the hospital bus.
I thought this article and the paper it discusses was interesting.
https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2020/10/28/big-ten-covid-protocol-21-days-heart-screening?__twitter_impression=true
"The nine-page report, heralded by physicians across the country, indicates that doctors are finding so few heart abnormalities in COVID-positive athletes that they are no longer recommending any cardiac screenings for those who experienced mild symptoms or no symptoms."
Which makes sense to me. Clearly caution is wise in the face of the unknown, but as we get more data, we should'nt be so inflexible in our policies, and that's for across the board, not just sports.
https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2020/10/28/big-ten-covid-protocol-21-days-heart-screening?__twitter_impression=true
"The nine-page report, heralded by physicians across the country, indicates that doctors are finding so few heart abnormalities in COVID-positive athletes that they are no longer recommending any cardiac screenings for those who experienced mild symptoms or no symptoms."
Which makes sense to me. Clearly caution is wise in the face of the unknown, but as we get more data, we should'nt be so inflexible in our policies, and that's for across the board, not just sports.
That's only because you don't want to.statefan91 said:Do you mind explaining this in a little bit more layman's terms, i'm not quite sure I understand? Is it saying that they are considering any trace of the virus as an active case, even if it's not enough to cause someone to get sick or something?wilmwolf80 said:
"Lowering the cycle threshold would reduce cases by 80 to 90 percent, he said.
Heneghan said thresholds in the high 30s paint a false picture, causing unnecessary quarantines and negative economic impacts,"
That's the crux of it right there. Being cautious is one thing, especially early on during this. But at this point, the hospitals are not overwhelmed, we have measures in place, there should be nothing to be gained by unnecessarily considering people positive. This is also yet another reason why it is fruitless to compare our statistics to the rest of the world. Without any standardized threshold for the testing, it very well could be apples to oranges. Eighty to ninety percent. Jeez. Imagine if that were actually being used in practice, we go from "the US is doing terrible dealing with the Rona because people suck, government is bad,, blah blah", to actually, no, we're doing better than everyone. That wouldn't fit the narrative though. I hope I live long enough for some deep dives on the numbers and science of this stuff to be done down the road.
Green Valley? The old Women's Hospital? (that's the only guess I can come up with)PackMom said:Is Green Valley still covid-only?Mormad said:
Btw, our numbers are up big. Over 80 in the hospital. Icu numbers not horrible.
I don't live in that area anymore (January 2005), but both my children were born at Women's...
TheStorm said:Green Valley? The old Women's Hospital? (that's the only guess I can come up with)PackMom said:Is Green Valley still covid-only?Mormad said:
Btw, our numbers are up big. Over 80 in the hospital. Icu numbers not horrible.
I don't live in that area anymore (January 2005), but both my children were born at Women's...
Yep. Cone built the new women's attached to the elm street facility, so the old women's is now covid only. About 55 beds.
It's my understanding they had only recently moved the women's hospital part to the new facility before Covid hit, so they had this nice empty facility they could dedicate to the purpose.
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A new article in Science casts doubt on the effectiveness of remdesivir to treat Covid-19. Remdesivir is the first drug to be approved for the treatment of Covid-19, but in a Solidarity trial conducted by the WHO, remdesivir did not lower mortality and "did not affect 'the duration of hospitalization' or whether COVID-19 patients required ventilators...".
The Solidarity trial was not a placebo based trial. Instead of a placebo, it compared remdesivir with three (3) other repurposed drugs. It was conducted in 405 hospitals in 30 countries and it was about three times as large as the the three other remdesivir studies combined. Apparently, the FDA never considered the Solidarity study before it granted approval for the use of remdesivir for the treatment of Covid-19.
I encourage everyone to read the full article, found at the following URL:
The 'very, very bad look' of remdesivir, the first FDA-approved COVID-19 drug
The Solidarity trial was not a placebo based trial. Instead of a placebo, it compared remdesivir with three (3) other repurposed drugs. It was conducted in 405 hospitals in 30 countries and it was about three times as large as the the three other remdesivir studies combined. Apparently, the FDA never considered the Solidarity study before it granted approval for the use of remdesivir for the treatment of Covid-19.
I encourage everyone to read the full article, found at the following URL:
The 'very, very bad look' of remdesivir, the first FDA-approved COVID-19 drug
It ain't rocket science and average intelligence can figure things out. Look at the places that have sharply rising hot-spots and it's easy to figure out why. Look at Europe and the trends and what they did and when. Look at S. Korea and we can't be like S. Korea but look at their results. Look at Australia and what they did to greatly reduce a very active pandemic....they hit it with a bat and it worked really well! What we could/can do to quail the virus has been preached; not abiding what science and doctors have told us will cost 10's of 1000's of lives, it will cost jobs and it will prolong Covid problems. Not doing what they say will postpone NORMALCY! (fact)
We lost a lot of things we love last spring and summer; what did we learn? To keep America rolling, it must be done smartly for a couple years! We didn't even have Covid-19 around last winter.....now we have fall and winter coming. Should the dogs and cats be in charge? It's not an Aesop's Fable.
US at 'critical point' as COVID-19 cases up nationwide
'There's no way to sugarcoat it': COVID-19 cases are surging; one American dies every 107 seconds
We lost a lot of things we love last spring and summer; what did we learn? To keep America rolling, it must be done smartly for a couple years! We didn't even have Covid-19 around last winter.....now we have fall and winter coming. Should the dogs and cats be in charge? It's not an Aesop's Fable.
US at 'critical point' as COVID-19 cases up nationwide
'There's no way to sugarcoat it': COVID-19 cases are surging; one American dies every 107 seconds
10/29 - Lazy man update.
Lot's of new cases! Hospitalizations flat.
Good bit of death backlog. Congregate still dominates deaths. Wake with only 2 reported deaths in last 7 days. Meck with 9. Not necessarily population centers dominating deaths.
NC - 10/29 *with* COVID Deaths Update. +38
Dates of Death Reported See Chart. 4 missing DoD assigned dates (3 total missing)
Setting: 20 Congregate, 6 Unknown, 12 General
Lot's of new cases! Hospitalizations flat.
Good bit of death backlog. Congregate still dominates deaths. Wake with only 2 reported deaths in last 7 days. Meck with 9. Not necessarily population centers dominating deaths.
NC - 10/29 *with* COVID Deaths Update. +38
Dates of Death Reported See Chart. 4 missing DoD assigned dates (3 total missing)
Setting: 20 Congregate, 6 Unknown, 12 General
ciscopack said:
It ain't rocket science and average intelligence can figure things out. Look at the places that have sharply rising hot-spots and it's easy to figure out why. Look at Europe and the trends and what they did and when. Look at S. Korea and we can't be like S. Korea but look at their results. Look at Australia and what they did to greatly reduce a very active pandemic....they hit it with a bat and it worked really well! What we could/can do to quail the virus has been preached; not abiding what science and doctors have told us will cost 10's of 1000's of lives, it will cost jobs and it will prolong Covid problems. Not doing what they say will postpone NORMALCY! (fact)
We lost a lot of things we love last spring and summer; what did we learn? To keep America rolling, it must be done smartly for a couple years! We didn't even have Covid-19 around last winter.....now we have fall and winter coming. Should the dogs and cats be in charge? It's not an Aesop's Fable.
US at 'critical point' as COVID-19 cases up nationwide
'There's no way to sugarcoat it': COVID-19 cases are surging; one American dies every 107 seconds
Do you have any examples of eliminating other respiratory viruses? The only thing postponing normalcy is allowing the fear mongering media to convince you that what you're seeing with your own two eyes is not reality. The reality is that humans get sick, some worse than others. Humans share sicknesses with others. The old and susceptible sometimes struggle to recover. On extremely rare occasions, even some young, healthy folks die. This was a novel virus pandemic. Excess deaths were expected (remember 2.2 million Americans were gonna die!). In the beginning, we were told 15 days to slow the spread to give healthcare time to prepare. The reasoning for the 15 days was to "flatten the curve." The experts said then that you CAN NOT change the area under the curve (ie. infections), you can only increase the span of time at which they occur. It's a respiratory virus. It isn't going away. Ever. The longer we pretend that it will, the longer this insanity will go on. The solution is to go back to being humans. Wash your hands. Stay out of peoples personal space. Stay home if you're sick. Allocate our resources to protecting and treating the most at risk.
Covid -19
Tennessee and Idaho see record daily deaths, while France and Germany return to lockdown
Coronavirus updates: Wisconsin may run out of ICU beds in 2 weeks; Boston Marathon postponed; CVS adds rapid testing sites
Parts of U.S. and Europe face new COVID-19 restrictions
"The solution is to go back to being humans. Wash your hands. Stay out of peoples personal space. Stay home if you're sick. Allocate our resources to protecting and treating the most at risk."
I think Dr. Fauci would have agreed mostly with that long ago. He'd probably add to wear a mask and maybe glasses when you must be in other's space and to wear a mask when moving from space to space in a crowd, not to gather in large crowds. People want to balk at the idea!
Tennessee and Idaho see record daily deaths, while France and Germany return to lockdown
Coronavirus updates: Wisconsin may run out of ICU beds in 2 weeks; Boston Marathon postponed; CVS adds rapid testing sites
Parts of U.S. and Europe face new COVID-19 restrictions
"The solution is to go back to being humans. Wash your hands. Stay out of peoples personal space. Stay home if you're sick. Allocate our resources to protecting and treating the most at risk."
I think Dr. Fauci would have agreed mostly with that long ago. He'd probably add to wear a mask and maybe glasses when you must be in other's space and to wear a mask when moving from space to space in a crowd, not to gather in large crowds. People want to balk at the idea!
Have we heard this before? I swear I have read this headline over 20 times and haven't seen where anyone has run out of ICU beds across a city. Just curious has a city run out of ICU beds yet?ciscopack said:
Coronavirus updates: Wisconsin may run out of ICU beds in 2 weeks
I have no idea..... "There is nothing magical about this math," said Bill Melms, chief medical officer for Marshfield Clinic Health System (50 locations in Wisconsin). "Every single positive increases the probability or likelihood of having another patient who is hospitalized."WPNfamily said:Have we heard this before? I swear I have read this headline over 20 times and haven't seen where anyone has run out of ICU beds across a city. Just curious has a city run out of ICU beds yet?ciscopack said:
Coronavirus updates: Wisconsin may run out of ICU beds in 2 weeks
Cool, keep sharing the fear porn...ciscopack said:I have no idea..... "There is nothing magical about this math," said Bill Melms, chief medical officer for Marshfield Clinic Health System (50 locations in Wisconsin). "Every single positive increases the probability or likelihood of having another patient who is hospitalized."WPNfamily said:Have we heard this before? I swear I have read this headline over 20 times and haven't seen where anyone has run out of ICU beds across a city. Just curious has a city run out of ICU beds yet?ciscopack said:
Coronavirus updates: Wisconsin may run out of ICU beds in 2 weeks
Fauci knows masks do very little, especially the cloth masks. He is periodically spotted without his mask.ciscopack said:
Covid -19
Tennessee and Idaho see record daily deaths, while France and Germany return to lockdown
Coronavirus updates: Wisconsin may run out of ICU beds in 2 weeks; Boston Marathon postponed; CVS adds rapid testing sites
Parts of U.S. and Europe face new COVID-19 restrictions
"The solution is to go back to being humans. Wash your hands. Stay out of peoples personal space. Stay home if you're sick. Allocate our resources to protecting and treating the most at risk."
I think Dr. Fauci would have agreed mostly with that long ago. He'd probably add to wear a mask and maybe glasses when you must be in other's space and to wear a mask when moving from space to space in a crowd, not to gather in large crowds. People want to balk at the idea!
It's not fear porn....I'm not afraid. It is SCIENCE! It's probably above the heads of 20 of you?WPNfamily said:Cool, keep sharing the fear porn...ciscopack said:I have no idea..... "There is nothing magical about this math," said Bill Melms, chief medical officer for Marshfield Clinic Health System (50 locations in Wisconsin). "Every single positive increases the probability or likelihood of having another patient who is hospitalized."WPNfamily said:Have we heard this before? I swear I have read this headline over 20 times and haven't seen where anyone has run out of ICU beds across a city. Just curious has a city run out of ICU beds yet?ciscopack said:
Coronavirus updates: Wisconsin may run out of ICU beds in 2 weeks
he
US coronavirus cases are the highest they've ever been but the fall-winter surge is just beginning
Daily coronavirus cases reached a new high on Thursday with more than 83,700 cases
Virus numbers will get much higher than they will be next Tuesday; no matter whom is elected for what office!!!!!!!!!!ciscopack said:It's not fear porn....I'm not afraid. It is SCIENCE! It's probably above the heads of 20 of you?WPNfamily said:Cool, keep sharing the fear porn...ciscopack said:I have no idea..... "There is nothing magical about this math," said Bill Melms, chief medical officer for Marshfield Clinic Health System (50 locations in Wisconsin). "Every single positive increases the probability or likelihood of having another patient who is hospitalized."WPNfamily said:Have we heard this before? I swear I have read this headline over 20 times and haven't seen where anyone has run out of ICU beds across a city. Just curious has a city run out of ICU beds yet?ciscopack said:
Coronavirus updates: Wisconsin may run out of ICU beds in 2 weeks
he
US coronavirus cases are the highest they've ever been but the fall-winter surge is just beginning
Daily coronavirus cases reached a new high on Thursday with more than 83,700 cases
Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, said he believes 100,000 new cases per day in the US is imminent.
"We'll cross 100,000 infections at some point in the next couple of weeks, probably. We might do it this week, if all the states report on time," Gottlieb said.
Gottlieb, who was appointed by President Donald Trump to lead the FDA in 2017, said this surge is due to the public's behavior and lack of caution.
That being said. While these round numbers make for great headlines, we could probably have easily gotten 100k detected cases in a day many times in the last 7 months if we pumped the testing volume up high enough. We are most certainly over 100k cases a day right now.ciscopack said:Virus numbers will get much higher than they will be next Tuesday; no matter whom is elected for what office!!!!!!!!!!ciscopack said:It's not fear porn....I'm not afraid. It is SCIENCE! It's probably above the heads of 20 of you?WPNfamily said:Cool, keep sharing the fear porn...ciscopack said:I have no idea..... "There is nothing magical about this math," said Bill Melms, chief medical officer for Marshfield Clinic Health System (50 locations in Wisconsin). "Every single positive increases the probability or likelihood of having another patient who is hospitalized."WPNfamily said:Have we heard this before? I swear I have read this headline over 20 times and haven't seen where anyone has run out of ICU beds across a city. Just curious has a city run out of ICU beds yet?ciscopack said:
Coronavirus updates: Wisconsin may run out of ICU beds in 2 weeks
he
US coronavirus cases are the highest they've ever been but the fall-winter surge is just beginning
Daily coronavirus cases reached a new high on Thursday with more than 83,700 cases
Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, said he believes 100,000 new cases per day in the US is imminent.
"We'll cross 100,000 infections at some point in the next couple of weeks, probably. We might do it this week, if all the states report on time," Gottlieb said.
Gottlieb, who was appointed by President Donald Trump to lead the FDA in 2017, said this surge is due to the public's behavior and lack of caution.
Certainly the surge is concerning, but to again blame this ALL on 'behavior and lack of caution' is a bit much... as is ascribing morality to a respiratory virus.
A large part of the Western world all took a left hand turn in the last few weeks, either everyone has 'stopped caring and loving their families' (to take a page from Cooper) at the same time, or it is a lot more complex than people just being naughty.
Is there a seasonal component? I don't know, but these massive regional turns should be something we start paying attention to when it comes to focused mitigation.
Are some of these mountain/mid-west states seeing a higher spike now because they weren't fully seeded when the last 'seasonal' wave should have come through?
Why is Illinois doing so much worse than Florida right now? One governor is putting in additional restrictions while the other has little in the way of restrictions and has schools and theme parks open. Could it be seasonality and not morality?
And what about all of us that have already had it and never knew it?Wayland said:That being said. While these round numbers make for great headlines, we could probably have easily gotten 100k detected cases in a day many times in the last 7 months if we pumped the testing volume up high enough. We are most certainly over 100k cases a day right now.ciscopack said:Virus numbers will get much higher than they will be next Tuesday; no matter whom is elected for what office!!!!!!!!!!ciscopack said:It's not fear porn....I'm not afraid. It is SCIENCE! It's probably above the heads of 20 of you?WPNfamily said:Cool, keep sharing the fear porn...ciscopack said:I have no idea..... "There is nothing magical about this math," said Bill Melms, chief medical officer for Marshfield Clinic Health System (50 locations in Wisconsin). "Every single positive increases the probability or likelihood of having another patient who is hospitalized."WPNfamily said:Have we heard this before? I swear I have read this headline over 20 times and haven't seen where anyone has run out of ICU beds across a city. Just curious has a city run out of ICU beds yet?ciscopack said:
Coronavirus updates: Wisconsin may run out of ICU beds in 2 weeks
he
US coronavirus cases are the highest they've ever been but the fall-winter surge is just beginning
Daily coronavirus cases reached a new high on Thursday with more than 83,700 cases
Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, said he believes 100,000 new cases per day in the US is imminent.
"We'll cross 100,000 infections at some point in the next couple of weeks, probably. We might do it this week, if all the states report on time," Gottlieb said.
Gottlieb, who was appointed by President Donald Trump to lead the FDA in 2017, said this surge is due to the public's behavior and lack of caution.
Certainly the surge is concerning, but to again blame this ALL on 'behavior and lack of caution' is a bit much... as is ascribing morality to a respiratory virus.
A large part of the Western world all took a right hand turn in the last few weeks, either everyone was 'stopped caring and loving their families' (to take a page from Cooper) at the same time, or it is a lot more complex than people just being naughty.
Is there a seasonal component? I don't know, but these massive regional turns should be something we start paying attention to when it comes to focused mitigation.
Are some of these mountain/mid-west states seeing a higher spike now because they weren't fully seeded when the last 'seasonal' wave should have come through?
Why is Illinois doing so much worse than Florida right now? One governor is putting in additional restrictions while the other has little in the way of restrictions and has schools and theme parks open. Could it be seasonality and not morality?
Yeah, I think it's funny/sad that any time the numbers go up, the immediate reaction from some people is that it must mean that people are awful and not following restrictions. In many of the places that have surges, there are still very strict rules in place, and no real indication that people aren't following those rules. It's far more likely and logical that there is some other component at work that is resulting in the surge: testing being up, seasonal changes as you say, or perhaps just the nature of an unpredictable virus. When you are seeing these surges not just here, but in other countries, how can the first reaction be that Amercians are just ****ty people who won't follow the rules? I don't agree with any of the restrictions currently in place in NC, but I'm following them, because I follow the rules. It's a small sample size, but literally everyone I know and have interacted with is doing the same.
On a side note:
Not sure how this will hold for next week given our current case counts. But NC CLI/ILI surveillance came out yesterday and ED visits and CLI % have been trending down for two weeks. That is certainly a positive given current case rates. If hospitalizations keep trending down that would be a great sign, but I am not holding my breath.
Also zero cases of flu detected in NC last week.
https://files.nc.gov/covid/documents/dashboard/Weekly-COVID19-Surveillance.pdf
Not sure how this will hold for next week given our current case counts. But NC CLI/ILI surveillance came out yesterday and ED visits and CLI % have been trending down for two weeks. That is certainly a positive given current case rates. If hospitalizations keep trending down that would be a great sign, but I am not holding my breath.
Also zero cases of flu detected in NC last week.
https://files.nc.gov/covid/documents/dashboard/Weekly-COVID19-Surveillance.pdf
I too am sick of a morality argument with a virus. We have never done that with any virus and we shouldn't do it now. You can get the virus if you do all the things they recommend so just stop with the righteous attitude. And yes some people don't care and are taking more risks anyway... but they have been this whole time, there's no correlation to slow downs in cases or spikes.
Also why is the news media leading with this every day and it's always doom and gloom. No one ever reports positive news. I know it's out there. We have to be coming closer to vaccine but also what about our treatments? you never hear anything about it... but they have to be working. I expect the media and democrats are following political science and nothing more. DARK WINTER!
Also why is the news media leading with this every day and it's always doom and gloom. No one ever reports positive news. I know it's out there. We have to be coming closer to vaccine but also what about our treatments? you never hear anything about it... but they have to be working. I expect the media and democrats are following political science and nothing more. DARK WINTER!
ok, here we go...
if a pair of jeans can't stop the smell of a fart; then, how do we expect a mask to stop a microscopic virus?
for information purposes only: I wear a mask in stores and/or when around others outside. I do not wear a mask in my own home and/or my car when driving. I try to wash my hands frequently; however, like most humans, I forget sometimes. I do believe this is a powerful virus; however, I believe individuals should make a decision that's best for them, regardless of someone else's decision. In our country, no one should be able to tell someone else what to do. Sorry, if you don't like what someone else is doing, do something different yourself.
if a pair of jeans can't stop the smell of a fart; then, how do we expect a mask to stop a microscopic virus?
for information purposes only: I wear a mask in stores and/or when around others outside. I do not wear a mask in my own home and/or my car when driving. I try to wash my hands frequently; however, like most humans, I forget sometimes. I do believe this is a powerful virus; however, I believe individuals should make a decision that's best for them, regardless of someone else's decision. In our country, no one should be able to tell someone else what to do. Sorry, if you don't like what someone else is doing, do something different yourself.
ciscopack said:It's not fear porn....I'm not afraid. It is SCIENCE! It's probably above the heads of 20 of you?WPNfamily said:Cool, keep sharing the fear porn...ciscopack said:I have no idea..... "There is nothing magical about this math," said Bill Melms, chief medical officer for Marshfield Clinic Health System (50 locations in Wisconsin). "Every single positive increases the probability or likelihood of having another patient who is hospitalized."WPNfamily said:Have we heard this before? I swear I have read this headline over 20 times and haven't seen where anyone has run out of ICU beds across a city. Just curious has a city run out of ICU beds yet?ciscopack said:
Coronavirus updates: Wisconsin may run out of ICU beds in 2 weeks
he
US coronavirus cases are the highest they've ever been but the fall-winter surge is just beginning
Daily coronavirus cases reached a new high on Thursday with more than 83,700 cases
The headline is fear porn. It is the media. What does the media accomplish with that headline other than scaring people? What are they trying to accomplish? EVERYONE HAS AN AGENDA.
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If everyone remembers back to the early days of the virus, testing and testing capacity was a huge issue. We had lots of people showing up at hospitals, but no way to test them for the virus. There are several reasons for this, however the US has made tremendous strides in increasing testing capacity over the past several months and now has the capacity to test more people daily than any other country in the world.
The fact that reported cases are the highest they have ever been is due to the fact we have the ability to test and identify more cases. Antibody surveys indicate that anywhere between 10-20% of Americans have been infected with the virus in many locations that were very hard hit, but the actual number of official cases is below this percentage. The reasons are:
1. We did not have the ability to test large numbers of people in the early days. Our percentage of positive tests at time indicated we were missing a large number of infected people, since we did not have the testing capacity.
2. People did not have symptoms that indicated they were sick, so they did not get tested or their symptoms were mild and they were told to just quarantine and not worry about being tested.
In North Carolina alone, the capacity now exists to test almost 40,000 people a day. Think about that number. To me it is amazing that we now have the infrastructure and the testing capacity/supplies/protective equipment to test 40,000 people a day. While we could always use more, this is an amazing achievement and it should be recognized as such.
To get to this point, we had to develop and approve new tests, testing methodologies, and testing equipment. We had to acquire testing materials not made in the US today by either starting to manufacturing it in the US (not any easy accomplishment if you know anything at all about manufacturing processes). The federal government used the Defense Production Act to further enhance supply of much needed test equipment. The logistics branch of the military was marshalled to coordinate the logistics of moving supplies from around the world. Most people do not realize that the US military has some of the best logistics experts and capabilities in the world and they made a great call in involving those capabilities to help secure testing supplies and PPE. The federal government worked directly with the testing labs to develop faster, more streamlined testing processes. The states have done an equally impressive job in setting up testing facilities and getting the testing equipment and supplies distributed around their states.
I thought it would be helpful to show this growth in daily testing in NC, since it shows the impressive advances we have made in eight months time.
The fact that reported cases are the highest they have ever been is due to the fact we have the ability to test and identify more cases. Antibody surveys indicate that anywhere between 10-20% of Americans have been infected with the virus in many locations that were very hard hit, but the actual number of official cases is below this percentage. The reasons are:
1. We did not have the ability to test large numbers of people in the early days. Our percentage of positive tests at time indicated we were missing a large number of infected people, since we did not have the testing capacity.
2. People did not have symptoms that indicated they were sick, so they did not get tested or their symptoms were mild and they were told to just quarantine and not worry about being tested.
In North Carolina alone, the capacity now exists to test almost 40,000 people a day. Think about that number. To me it is amazing that we now have the infrastructure and the testing capacity/supplies/protective equipment to test 40,000 people a day. While we could always use more, this is an amazing achievement and it should be recognized as such.
To get to this point, we had to develop and approve new tests, testing methodologies, and testing equipment. We had to acquire testing materials not made in the US today by either starting to manufacturing it in the US (not any easy accomplishment if you know anything at all about manufacturing processes). The federal government used the Defense Production Act to further enhance supply of much needed test equipment. The logistics branch of the military was marshalled to coordinate the logistics of moving supplies from around the world. Most people do not realize that the US military has some of the best logistics experts and capabilities in the world and they made a great call in involving those capabilities to help secure testing supplies and PPE. The federal government worked directly with the testing labs to develop faster, more streamlined testing processes. The states have done an equally impressive job in setting up testing facilities and getting the testing equipment and supplies distributed around their states.
I thought it would be helpful to show this growth in daily testing in NC, since it shows the impressive advances we have made in eight months time.
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