Coronavirus

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Wayland
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11:18a, 4/30/20
I am pretty sure that is by far the largest single day. I think almost 4x (edit) the numbers from 2 days ago.

Death numbers already spiking on the media sites. NandO already at 397, so we could break 400 today. Usually WRAL and NandO's death tolls are posted between 11-2pm (with occaisionally a late add in the evening)
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ZAXPACK15
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11:37a, 4/30/20
Has anyone seen any good data on face masks? I went to Costco yesterday and starting next week they are requiring all customers to wear face masks to enter the store. That is their decision so I am not going to debate that, but I am not convinced wrapping a bandanna around your head is going to stop virus particles.
3rd generation CALS grad
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to Wayland • 11:40a, 4/30/20
Staff
Wayland said:
I am pretty sure that is by far the largest single day. I think almost 4x (edit) the numbers from 2 days ago.
On 4/10, we show total testing of 9,836. So, today's number would be second highest and is almost 3X the average number of daily tests for the month of April. There were two days in April where testing was 7,000+.
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packgrad
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In reply to ZAXPACK15 • 11:41a, 4/30/20
ZAXPACK15 said:
Has anyone seen any good data on face masks? I went to Costco yesterday and starting next week they are requiring all customers to wear face masks to enter the store. That is their decision so I am not going to debate that, but I am not convinced wrapping a bandanna around your head is going to stop virus particles.


It's not going to stop the virus, but I believe it will meet their standards.
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to ZAXPACK15 • 11:50a, 4/30/20
Staff
ZAXPACK15 said:
Has anyone seen any good data on face masks? I went to Costco yesterday and starting next week they are requiring all customers to wear face masks to enter the store. That is their decision so I am not going to debate that, but I am not convinced wrapping a bandanna around your head is going to stop virus particles.
Stop - No
Slowdown or inhibit - Yes

A doubled-up bandanna will reduce the number of virus particles based on articles I read a couple of weeks ago. People do need to remember that while wearing a mask or bandanna, they also have to continue to stay 6 feet away. I think some people believe that the wearing of a mask eliminates the need to maintain the 6 feed distancing guidelines.

You also have to seal-off the area around the nose. I have seen people wearing the mask too low on the nose which leaves a gap on each side of their nose. If you wear glasses, the mask/bandanna should extend underneath the glasses - it should not stop below the glasses or overlap on top of the bottom of glasses. They should also extend to the bottom of the chin.

Additionally, if you are riding in a car by yourself or even with family members, you do not need to have the mask on your face. I see a lot of people doing this when I am out in the car. This is not an airborne virus what is always present in the air. You will not catch the virus if there is no one near you or when you are in your house or car. It requires person-to-person interaction or it requires you to touch a surface that may have some of the virus present and active.
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cowboypack02
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In reply to Daviewolf83 • 11:53a, 4/30/20
Daviewolf83 said:
ZAXPACK15 said:
Has anyone seen any good data on face masks? I went to Costco yesterday and starting next week they are requiring all customers to wear face masks to enter the store. That is their decision so I am not going to debate that, but I am not convinced wrapping a bandanna around your head is going to stop virus particles.
Stop - No
Slowdown or inhibit - Yes

A doubled-up bandanna will reduce the number of virus particles based on articles I read a couple of weeks ago. People do need to remember that while wearing a mask or bandanna, they also have to continue to stay 6 feet away. I think some people believe that the wearing of a mask eliminates the need to maintain the 6 feed distancing guidelines.

You also have to seal-off the area around the nose. I have seen people wearing the mask too low on the nose which leaves a gap on each side of their nose. If you wear glasses, the mask/bandanna should extend underneath the glasses - it should not stop below the glasses or overlap on top of the bottom of glasses. They should also extend to the bottom of the chin.

Additionally, if you are riding in a car by yourself or even with family members, you do not need to have the mask on your face. I see a lot of people doing this when I am out in the car. This is not an airborne virus what is always present in the air. You will not catch the virus if there is no one near you or when you are in your house or car. It requires person-to-person interaction or it requires you to touch a surface that may have some of the virus present and active.
I've seen several folks here with the mask covering their mouth, but not their nose. Gives me a good laugh
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statefan91
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In reply to cowboypack02 • 11:58a, 4/30/20
Yep - I've also seen a lot of people using the mask, pulling it down under their chin and talking, and then putting it back up. Seems to defeat some of the purpose.

I have a reusable mask that I've worn to costco the last couple times. My understanding is that even though it won't necessarily keep other people's germs away 100%, it will inhibit them to some degree while also keeping my germs from spreading broadly throughout the air. I'm fine with taking that step in case I'm an asymptomatic carrier.
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wilmwolf
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11:59a, 4/30/20
People wearing masks not covering their noses, or while driving alone in their car, are proof that Darwin was right. Neither wearing a mask (of the type that most people are wearing) nor staying six feet apart will prevent you from getting the virus. It will lessen your chances, but it's mostly just to make people feel better about being out and about IMO. I'm sure stores requiring them also have been advised that it lessens their liability in some way. I'll wear one if an establishment that I want to patronize requires it, but I have no feeling that it's actually making me safer.
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Wayland
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12:00p, 4/30/20
My wife was at the grocery store Saturday and someone was in full mask and gloves. She watches them go to the car, take their mask off with their gloved hands, and then stick their gloved fingers in their mouth and use their teeth to remove the gloves.

But back to the masks, they aren't even to reduce the chance of 100%, the intent is to reduce the chance ANY percent. Whatever the efficacy actually is, if I need to suck up a mask for a few weeks for this to be over and to be let back out in the world, I'll compromise and suck it up.
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PackMom
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12:04p, 4/30/20
If I go somewhere, I put on my mask when I arrive. However, I don't handle it until I get home, at which time I wash my hands, put the mask in a wash bag, and wash my hands again. Especially if I'm going more than one place, I'm not taking it off and putting it back on. So yes, you might see me driving with a mask on.
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statefan91
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12:22p, 4/30/20
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wilmwolf
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In reply to statefan91 • 12:46p, 4/30/20
Seems pretty clear that the SEC is pretty intent on playing in some form this fall.
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metcalfmafia
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In reply to wilmwolf • 12:49p, 4/30/20
wilmwolf80 said:
Seems pretty clear that the SEC is pretty intent on playing in some form this fall.
It just means more.
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Wayland
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1:01p, 4/30/20
.
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statefan91
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In reply to Wayland • 1:11p, 4/30/20
61% with antibodies vs. what % of confirmed positives? I tried to look at the article but couldn't find it, but I just did a cursory read through.
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Wayland
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1:20p, 4/30/20
I'd expect the number to drop a good bit with expanded testing, reading through the article, these numbers may have been for people who for some reason or another couldn't get a regular test at the time.

I think later on they discuss numbers for overall healthcare workers that are much lower. I would expect things to eventually fall in line with NYC and the Lombardy healthcare workers in the 20-30% range.
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Wayland
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2:07p, 4/30/20
New weekly flu report for NC is out.

The main thing of value in this report is that first graph (% Outpatient Visits with ILI) it tends to heavily mirror the %ED Visits with COVID like illness that comes out in the weekly surveillance that will come out later this afternoon.

It looks like ILI is right in line with trends again this week.

https://flu.ncdhhs.gov/data/documents/flu1920.pdf

Interesting, there is a little bit of a spike in respiratory illness in patients without laboratory confirmed COVID-19 or other known non-influenza respiratory infections.

Another side note, on an interview with UNC TV last night, Cohen suggested that we were on track to enter Phase 1 on May 8/9 and that NC just needs to keep pushing through to be in the best position for when we do.

Governor just echoed those comments in his briefings that we are on track for May 8/9 barring something breaking our curves.
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to Wayland • 3:04p, 4/30/20
Staff
Wayland said:
My wife was at the grocery store Saturday and someone was in full mask and gloves. She watches them go to the car, take their mask off with their gloved hands, and then stick their gloved fingers in their mouth and use their teeth to remove the gloves.

But back to the masks, they aren't even to reduce the chance of 100%, the intent is to reduce the chance ANY percent. Whatever the efficacy actually is, if I need to suck up a mask for a few weeks for this to be over and to be let back out in the world, I'll compromise and suck it up.
Here's a little graphic I saw Tweeted out a short time ago. It shows the relative effectiveness of wearing a mask, depending on who is wearing it. The numbers are just illustrative, to do not take them literally.

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PossumJenkins
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3:15p, 4/30/20
Nascar back in Darlington May 17th
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wilmwolf
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4:02p, 4/30/20
It really depends on what type of mask people are wearing. Most of what I see people wearing wouldn't filter dust particles, much less stop the virus. Maybe it's better than not wearing anything, but if you are at risk, you shouldn't assume you are safe because you are wearing a bandana or whatever.
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Wayland
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In reply to Wayland • 11:25a, 5/1/20
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
4/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
9948
NC Deaths**
354
Currently Hospitalized
551 <- New High
Completed Tests
118,440

196 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+9 Not GenPop, +3 GenPop)

124 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
230 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

86 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 366 (+2) and NandO is at 366 deaths

380 positive cases over 5688 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.

Good low positive daily rate. Likely less congregate outbreaks represented.
Spike in hospitalizations. Would like to see a breakdown of ICU/non-ICU here.
DHHS still lagging media on deaths. WRAL and NandO had those totals late last night, again lag is likely due to trying to confirm congregate or not.

149 of the new cases came from congregate facilities.

Wake County is allowing their separate Stay at Home order to expire, and will continue under the state's order.
4/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
10509
NC Deaths**
378
Currently Hospitalized
546
Completed Tests
128,036

212 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
37 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+24 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+19 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)

129 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
249 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)

87 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 386 (+2) and NandO is at 385 deaths

561 positive cases over 9596 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.
5/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
10,923
NC Deaths**
399
Currently Hospitalized
547
Completed Tests
133,832

229 Deaths are now Congregate (+17 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+16 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)

134 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
265 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

92 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 411 (+2) and NandO is at 414 deaths

414 positive cases over 5796 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.


160 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.

Guilford County is up to 30 deaths and as of Tuesday's report they did not have a single congregate setting death, which is super unusual. Most of the high death count counties have significant congregate death tolls. So what is going on in Guilford County or are they submitting incomplete data? It sticks out as such an outlier, I would love to know what is actually happening there.
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to Wayland • 11:51a, 5/1/20
Staff
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
4/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
9948
NC Deaths**
354
Currently Hospitalized
551 <- New High
Completed Tests
118,440

196 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+9 Not GenPop, +3 GenPop)

124 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
230 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

86 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 366 (+2) and NandO is at 366 deaths

380 positive cases over 5688 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.

Good low positive daily rate. Likely less congregate outbreaks represented.
Spike in hospitalizations. Would like to see a breakdown of ICU/non-ICU here.
DHHS still lagging media on deaths. WRAL and NandO had those totals late last night, again lag is likely due to trying to confirm congregate or not.

149 of the new cases came from congregate facilities.

Wake County is allowing their separate Stay at Home order to expire, and will continue under the state's order.
4/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
10509
NC Deaths**
378
Currently Hospitalized
546
Completed Tests
128,036

212 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
37 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+24 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+19 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)

129 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
249 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)

87 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 386 (+2) and NandO is at 385 deaths

561 positive cases over 9596 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.
5/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
10,923
NC Deaths**
399
Currently Hospitalized
547
Completed Tests
133,832

229 Deaths are now Congregate (+17 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+16 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)

134 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
265 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

92 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 405 (+2) and NandO is at 414 deaths

414 positive cases over 5796 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.


160 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.

Guilford County is up to 30 deaths and as of Tuesday's report they did not have a single congregate setting death, which is super unusual. Most of the high death count counties have significant congregate death tolls. So what is going on in Guilford County or are they submitting incomplete data? It sticks out as such an outlier, I would love to know what is actually happening there.
Guilford County reporting with regards to nursing homes is wrong as it relates to the latest report posted for Congregate facilities on the NCDHHS website. I just did a Google search and found a report from WFMY-TV on 4/27 of 2 deaths at the Clapps Nursing Center. Additionally, the report only says 6 residents are positive for Covid-19, but the same WFMY report includes a statement from an administrator with the facility that 23 residents have tested positive for Covid-19.

I suspect the reports out of Guilford are inaccurate, just based on this limited check I made. It is very unusual to have as many deaths as Guilford is having, considering 86% of deaths are people over the age of 65. It is surprising that of all the counties, Guilford is unlucky enough to have so many deaths from outside of Congregate facilities, when over half of the deaths state-wide are from Congregate facilities.

Also, WRAL has posted an article on the counts coming from Congregate facilities. To summarize the article - reporting is inconsistent and in many cases wrong. You can read the whole article at the following link:

NC Care Facilities, counties inconsistent in reporting
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Wayland
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12:01p, 5/1/20
Just watching these numbers day over day. It isn't even 50% of death in nursing homes anymore, we are at like 75% plus of the covid deaths in these facilities. It is mind boggling

"As of Thursday afternoon, Moore County spokesperson Matt Garner said although some nursing homes have expressed interest, no facilities had committed to taking the health director up on the free testing offer."

Seriously, take the free testing.

"...But even this reporting shows that attributing deaths to the disease can be tricky.
Pinehurst Health and Rehab on Monday reported two deaths for COVID-19 positive residents under hospice care one who had been in gradual decline and another suffering from cervical cancer."

I am fine with recording these as with COVID and opposed to from COVID. I wonder how they ended up categorized, but someone who was in hospice care with asymptomatic covid did not die from covid.
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statefan91
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1:37p, 5/1/20
Got an e-mail from my Dentist that they were opening back up 5/11 with some additional safety protocols like requesting patients wait in cars rather than the waiting room, confirming no symptoms, washing hands and a medical mouth wash. Glad I can finally get a new Invisalign tray.
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Wayland
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2:03p, 5/1/20
By the end of the day today, NC will provide number of cases by zip codes.

Cohen reiterated today, she remains optimistic about moving to Phase 1 when the current order expires (not that we aren't basically in Phase 1 now).
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statefan91
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In reply to Wayland • 2:11p, 5/1/20
Why have they waited to go into Phase 1 anyway? I'm not really sure I understand that.
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Wayland
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In reply to statefan91 • 2:14p, 5/1/20
statefan91 said:
Why have they waited to go into Phase 1 anyway? I'm not really sure I understand that.
I think it was to pretend to give a 14 day window. They announced the phases right at 14ish days out from the expiration of the extended order.

I think it was all optics to make it appear that a 14 day trend window was analysed before moving to Phase 1 per federal guidance.

Some people are really scared, and this gives them the illusion that proper rules are being followed.

Cohen has to say daily in the briefings that a spike or drop of 50 to 100 hospitalizations is not significant with regards to hospital capacity. She has also really been bringing up the hospital capacity not being an issue lately.

Zip code map is up.

https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/covid19/covid-19-nc-case-count#zip-code-map
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Daviewolf83
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3:14p, 5/1/20
Staff
Last night, I spent some time watching a couple of videos by Dr. Mark Hansen regarding Covid-19. One is a very good technical explanation of how Covid-19 attacks the body and why it is believed some people get more sick than others. The other is a very good video that discusses many of the treatment options currently going through trial and he explains how each of these treatments work and the likelihood of success with each. Since it is about a week old, he does not mention the results of the recent Remdesivir news, but he does talk about it in the video.

I encourage you to watch the videos if you are remotely interested in either topic. With regards to the drugs under review, I am very encouraged and hopeful for the ACE-2 inhibitors and Angiotensin Blockers (ARBs), since both of these help to block much of the crippling immune system reactions that causes people to go on respirators. There is a third one he discusses that he seems to think has a very good chance of success is Recombinant Human Angiotensin Converting Enzyme-2 (APN01). He gave this one an 8/10 for potential for success.

How does Coronavirus kill people?

Top 5 Most Promising Drugs
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packgrad
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In reply to Wayland • 3:47p, 5/1/20
Like the zip code addition. Looking from phone so was hard to see everything but was able to find my zip. Interested if they'll break it down further by congregate, gen pop.
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Wayland
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4:46p, 5/1/20
So the new congregate outbreak report is out.

https://files.nc.gov/ncdhhs/documents/files/covid-19/Weekly-COVID19-Ongoing-Outbreaks.pdf

And I count 239 (+9 that aren't listed as resident or staff and +2 staff for 250 total) non-prison congregate deaths in the report (that is still with Guilford having none and Orange having 28 despite reporting only 17 deaths).

I wonder if facility deaths are getting reported against other counties. A lot of discrepancies between that report and the daily numbers.

Henderson County has all 21 of their deaths accounted for from congregate facilities, and Durham has 19 of their 21 in facilities.

I wish these places could be accurate.
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PackMom
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4:58p, 5/1/20
FDA has granted emergency approval to remdesivir to treat COVID19.
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Wayland
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In reply to Wayland • 11:50a, 5/2/20
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
4/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
9948
NC Deaths**
354
Currently Hospitalized
551 <- New High
Completed Tests
118,440

196 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+9 Not GenPop, +3 GenPop)

124 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
230 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

86 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 366 (+2) and NandO is at 366 deaths

380 positive cases over 5688 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.

Good low positive daily rate. Likely less congregate outbreaks represented.
Spike in hospitalizations. Would like to see a breakdown of ICU/non-ICU here.
DHHS still lagging media on deaths. WRAL and NandO had those totals late last night, again lag is likely due to trying to confirm congregate or not.

149 of the new cases came from congregate facilities.

Wake County is allowing their separate Stay at Home order to expire, and will continue under the state's order.
4/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
10509
NC Deaths**
378
Currently Hospitalized
546
Completed Tests
128,036

212 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
37 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+24 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+19 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)

129 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
249 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)

87 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 386 (+2) and NandO is at 385 deaths

561 positive cases over 9596 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.
5/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
10,923
NC Deaths**
399
Currently Hospitalized
547
Completed Tests
133,832

229 Deaths are now Congregate (+17 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+16 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)

134 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
265 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

92 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 411 (+2) and NandO is at 414 deaths

414 positive cases over 5796 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.


160 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.

Guilford County is up to 30 deaths and as of Tuesday's report they did not have a single congregate setting death, which is super unusual. Most of the high death count counties have significant congregate death tolls. So what is going on in Guilford County or are they submitting incomplete data? It sticks out as such an outlier, I would love to know what is actually happening there.
5/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
11,509
NC Deaths**
420
Currently Hospitalized
502
Completed Tests
139,475

245 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
35 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+15 Not GenPop, +6 GenPop)

140 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
280 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

95 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)

WRAL is at 420 (+2) and NandO is at 419 deaths

586 positive cases over 5642 new tests. 10.4% positive rate.


102 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.

Highest single day of positive cases, although the positive rate is only about 1.5% average. I wish I knew what congregate or workplaces testing was in there.
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wilmwolf
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5:44p, 5/2/20
Another article supporting what I've felt almost since the start of this.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/umpc-argues-covid-19-not-as-deadly-as-feared-says-its-hospitals-will-shift-back-to-normal.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
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Pacfanweb
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8:52p, 5/2/20
So...since we've been locked down for over a month now: Why are these old folks homes still coming down with the virus?
You would think that if anywhere was seriously locked down, those places would be.

But they've been exposed to and caught the virus SINCE the lockdown. These aren't places where people simply hadn't shown signs yet...they've been exposed and gotten sick since lockdown was started.

IMO, this means that loads of asymptomatic people were already walking around with it, gave it to others that had no symptoms and it made its way to the vulnerable ones.

In other words, I don't think we could have stopped this from happening at all. It's all over the place and there's no stopping it....so we might as well go back to work, at least here in NC.
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Everpack
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9:09p, 5/2/20
My small WNC county recently completed a volunteer drive thru testing day for all "essential business" employees. 283 individuals tested with zero positives. As a county we're up to 17 total positive tests with 12 of the 17 results coming in in last week. Zero hospitalizations in the county. Keep in mind we are a pretty major tourism based county with Waynesville and Maggie Valley, as well as being neighbors to Buncombe, Transylvania, and Jackson Counties.

https://www.themountaineer.com/news/local/frontline-workers-test-negative-for-coronavirus/article_4c892d18-8bcc-11ea-ac3b-0bf504db672d.html
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