Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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4/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
5859
NC Deaths**
152
Currently Hospitalized
429 (87% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
72981

4/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:40am)

NC Cases*
6140
NC Deaths**
164
Currently Hospitalized
388 (88% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
76211

4/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
6493
NC Deaths**
172
Currently Hospitalized
465
Completed Tests
78772

66 Deaths are now Congregate (+7 since yesterday)
18 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not

That means 7 of the 8 deaths added to the total since yesterday are congregate deaths

59 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)

WRAL is at 188 (+2) and NandO is at 185. Again, the lag, I am guess is coming in trying to confirm death location. Don't know why the lag since WRAL was in the 180s on Friday.

85% of the deaths are 65+. That number keeps creeping up.
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4/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
6764
NC Deaths**
179
Currently Hospitalized
373
Completed Tests
79484

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4/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:35am)

NC Cases*
6951
NC Deaths**
213
Currently Hospitalized
427
Completed Tests
83331

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4/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
7220
NC Deaths**
242
Currently Hospitalized
434
Completed Tests
90336

116 Deaths are now Congregate (+20 since yesterday)
29 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not (+3)
+29 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+23 Not GenPop, +6 GenPop)

97 Deaths assumed General Population
145 Congregate and Unknown Setting.

67 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)

WRAL is at 244 (+2) and NandO is at 261

269 positive cases over 7005 new tests. 3.8% positive rate.

Why aren't we seeing all the reporting and media focus on the true crisis of congregate settings?

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4/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
7608
NC Deaths**
253
Currently Hospitalized
486
Completed Tests
96185

124 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
31 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+10 Not GenPop, +1 GenPop)

98 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
155 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+10)

68 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 270 (+2) and NandO is at 273

388 positive cases over 5849 new tests. 6.6% positive rate.

DHHS is lagging hard on the media again but 10 of the 11 new deaths on DHHS were Congregate/Unknown. Only 1 was not.

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4/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:40am)

NC Cases*
8052
NC Deaths**
269
Currently Hospitalized
477
Completed Tests
100,584

132 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+16 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+11 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)

103 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
166 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

73 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 279 (+2) and NandO is at 281 deaths

444 positive cases over 4399 new tests. 10% positive rate.

Positive test rate is above average today. That sucks big time, would like to know if this is largely indicative of a congregate outbreak(s). I guess a side benefit is, if we can get the positive rate to spike, we can show improvement.

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4/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
8542 (subtracted 81 reporting error)
NC Deaths**
289
Currently Hospitalized
456
Completed Tests
105,265

148 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
35 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+17 Not GenPop, +3 GenPop)

106 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
183 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+17)

80 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7) <- Note a number of prisons added

WRAL is at 299 (+2) and NandO is at 304 deaths

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4/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
8830
NC Deaths**
299
Currently Hospitalized
451
Completed Tests
107,894

155 Deaths are now Congregate (+7 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+6 Not GenPop, +4 GenPop)

110 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
189 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

81 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 306 (+2) and NandO is at 306 deaths

288 positive cases over 2629 new tests. 11% positive rate.

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4/27/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:20am)

NC Cases*
9142
NC Deaths**
306
Currently Hospitalized
473
Completed Tests
109,920

159 Deaths are now Congregate (+4 since yesterday)
33 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+3 Not GenPop, +4 GenPop)

114 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
192 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

82 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 316 (+2) and NandO is at 325 deaths

312 positive cases over 2026 new tests. 15.4% positive rate.

Really low number of tests. Also starting to lag way behind media numbers, so expect a big spike as they clear lag tomorrow.

Deaths over 65 have hit their highest percentage of total deaths now accounting for 86% of the deaths.
10% are between 50 and 64 years of age and 4% between 25 and 49 years of age.

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4/28/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
9568
NC Deaths**
342
Currently Hospitalized
463
Completed Tests
112,752

188 Deaths are now Congregate (+29 since yesterday)
33 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+36 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+29 Not GenPop, +7 GenPop)

121 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
221 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+29)

85 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)

WRAL is at 360 (+2) and NandO is at 360 deaths

426 positive cases over 2832 new tests. 15.0% positive rate. <- Note there was a women's prison and food plant outbreak in these numbers.

Interesting that DHHS is now including the number of NON-Congregate deaths in their Congregate data section. Showing how little impact to the general public there is.

This represents the weekend catch up I was expecting and then some. The number of Nursing Home/Congregate deaths is too hard to ignore. It is the true story.

Also deaths over 65 years of age have ticked up another percent to 87% of total.

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Wayland said:

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There has been a large push out of Eastern NC to re-open regionally. I swear every day I hear a media member out of Eastern NC asking about it in a briefing.

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Everpack said:

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I've been reading a lot of information lately on twitter in regards to the lag in reporting of both cases and deaths. Has anyone been able to find the data for North Carolina for actual days of death and actual days of administered tests? There's a lot of noise out there that the peak of the positive tests/onset of symptoms occurred prior to the stay at home orders and we were already on the downward slope of the curve.

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Everpack said:

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I've been reading a lot of information lately on twitter in regards to the lag in reporting of both cases and deaths. Has anyone been able to find the data for North Carolina for actual days of death and actual days of administered tests? There's a lot of noise out there that the peak of the positive tests/onset of symptoms occurred prior to the stay at home orders and we were already on the downward slope of the curve.

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Even with data lags, it is fair to say that the number of cases is greater after the lock-downs went into effect. I estimate that cases of people after the lockdown is 6,297 and cases of people infected before the lock-downs went into effect are 3,650. These numbers assume that a person can be infected for as many as 10 days before symptoms appear. The average appears to be 5 days before symptoms appear, but I am being conservative and looking at the higher number. My numbers are more conservative and if you assume the 5 day average, the number of people infected after the lock-downs went into effect goes up to 7,546 cases post lock-down.

I can say for deaths for the general public (non-congregate deaths), we are definitely trending down and have been for many days.

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packgrad said:

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Gaston County opening up is a big middle finger to Mecklenburg County and their **** model.

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Daviewolf83 said:

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According to Dr. Fauci in an announcement today, anti-viral drug Remdesivir is showing positive results against the Coronavirus. It will now be peer reviewed, but results point to this drug being a new standard of care against the virus. Future study to be conducted with this drug and a anti-inflammatory drug. Remdesivir targets an enzyme used by the virus to invade the body. There are other enzymes the virus also uses, but this gives scientists a path forward in finding other drugs that target the virus' ability to function and replicate.

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Everpack said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Everpack said:

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I've been reading a lot of information lately on twitter in regards to the lag in reporting of both cases and deaths. Has anyone been able to find the data for North Carolina for actual days of death and actual days of administered tests? There's a lot of noise out there that the peak of the positive tests/onset of symptoms occurred prior to the stay at home orders and we were already on the downward slope of the curve.

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Even with data lags, it is fair to say that the number of cases is greater after the lock-downs went into effect. I estimate that cases of people after the lockdown is 6,297 and cases of people infected before the lock-downs went into effect are 3,650. These numbers assume that a person can be infected for as many as 10 days before symptoms appear. The average appears to be 5 days before symptoms appear, but I am being conservative and looking at the higher number. My numbers are more conservative and if you assume the 5 day average, the number of people infected after the lock-downs went into effect goes up to 7,546 cases post lock-down.

I can say for deaths for the general public (non-congregate deaths), we are definitely trending down and have been for many days.

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Curious to your method of calculating those numbers? Shouldn't the date of infection be the most important factor when looking at the effect of the stay at home order? Onset of symptoms could occur 5-10 days later, correct?

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The stay-at-home order was issued on 3/30. So anyone infected after this date is considered to be an infection after the order. I am saying it could take as much as 10 days for symptoms to appear and for someone to come forward and request testing. So between 3/31 and 4/10, people will be coming forward to get tested who were infected prior to 3/31 and people will come forward for testing by people infected after 3/31. The period of 3/31 to 4/10 contains both old and new cases and the total number of cases over this period is 2,344. I am being conservative and counting these all as pre-lock-down cases, but they are likely a mix of pre- and post-lock-down cases.

Of course, it is not exact, since people are getting tested after they show symptoms and there is a lag in data. However, I can confidently say there have been more cases of people infected after the stay-at-home order was put in place than before the order. I can also confidently say there are people dying today that were infected after the stay-at-home order was put in place.

I hope this all makes sense and if you have any suggestions about how I could better approximate this information, please let me know. I welcome any input on this that helps to make for better information.

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Wayland said:

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https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-29/coronavirus-lockdown-critics-may-have-some-valid-points

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JetsonGeorge said:

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Gaston County county commissioners signed an order today opening Gaston County at 5pm today in defiance of the Governor's order. This will be interesting to follow. I believe the Governor has to allow phase 1 to begin on May 9 if he expects continued compliance from citizens of NC.

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statefan91 said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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According to Dr. Fauci in an announcement today, anti-viral drug Remdesivir is showing positive results against the Coronavirus. It will now be peer reviewed, but results point to this drug being a new standard of care against the virus. Future study to be conducted with this drug and a anti-inflammatory drug. Remdesivir targets an enzyme used by the virus to invade the body. There are other enzymes the virus also uses, but this gives scientists a path forward in finding other drugs that target the virus' ability to function and replicate.

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Is there any reason they're not practicing social distancing / wearing masks in this interview? If those are the recommendations it seems weird that no one is adhering to them?

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Wayland said:

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https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-29/coronavirus-lockdown-critics-may-have-some-valid-points

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Interesting news out of Gaston County this morning. They are going to go against the governor's orders and allow businesses to begin opening today at 5pm. I expect to see other counties that were not hard hit by the virus do the same thing. The Gaston Co. commissioner making the updates questioned the governor's authority and says the local hospital and the Gaston county data support the decision to open up.

It is encouraging that the percent positive tested was slightly less than 7% and I agree it likely means there were fewer congregate tests, based on the fact that congregate positive tests fell from the day before. I will also point out that daily non-congregate deaths are also continuing to trend down, with only 4 non-congregate deaths reported today.

With regards to ICU bed utilization, I would suggest using Mecklenburg County as a reference point to extrapolate across other cities. Mecklenburg has seen a much larger amount of congregate cases and deaths than other areas, so it could represent a worst case example. In the Mecklenburg hospitals, there are roughly 15 people in ICU and less than 10 on ventilators due to Covid-19. On April 26, there were 70 people in the hospital in Mecklenburg County. So roughly, 21% of people hospitalized are in ICU and 14% are on ventilators. Applying these percentages to NC (very rough I know), means NC has an estimated 115 people in ICU and 77 on ventilators out of 551 people hospitalized.

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Great news. I wish lots of the restaurants and other counties would open up too. What has been done is totally unconstitutional and I have been against it from the start. As you mentioned yesterday Davie, one's rights should never be compromised and ours have severely been compromised with not much pushback. We all need to pushback.

My business has taken a tremendous hit. I don't know if it will come back or not. I am not as bad off as some people as I had a little put away, but in two months, if this continues, I may have to sell my house to survive. We need to reopen the whole state.

Thanks for posting Daviewolf

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JetsonGeorge said:

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Gaston County county commissioners signed an order today opening Gaston County at 5pm today in defiance of the Governor's order. This will be interesting to follow. I believe the Governor has to allow phase 1 to begin on May 9 if he expects continued compliance from citizens of NC.

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Wayland said:

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4/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
9948
NC Deaths**
354
Currently Hospitalized
551 <- New High
Completed Tests
118,440

196 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+9 Not GenPop, +3 GenPop)

124 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
230 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

86 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 366 (+2) and NandO is at 366 deaths

380 positive cases over 5688 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.

Good low positive daily rate. Likely less congregate outbreaks represented.
Spike in hospitalizations. Would like to see a breakdown of ICU/non-ICU here.
DHHS still lagging media on deaths. WRAL and NandO had those totals late last night, again lag is likely due to trying to confirm congregate or not.

149 of the new cases came from congregate facilities.

Wake County is allowing their separate Stay at Home order to expire, and will continue under the state's order.

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