Coronavirus

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packgrad
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In reply to Wayland • 7:37p, 4/27/20
Wayland said:
PossumJenkins said:
Jensen's tweet before that one is just as alarming. The Charlotte chief of police (obvious medical expert) says Novant and Atrium have gotten better at treating the disease and that's the reason less patients are on vents. Actual doctors then refute that and say "number of total hospitalized cases have dropped". Seriously...this is absurd


Some crazy tweet sequences there. Someone needs to break up the groupthink in Mecklenburg.


I think it explains the ridiculous model they have been using.
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to Wayland • 9:09p, 4/27/20
Staff
Wayland said:
PossumJenkins said:
Jensen's tweet before that one is just as alarming. The Charlotte chief of police (obvious medical expert) says Novant and Atrium have gotten better at treating the disease and that's the reason less patients are on vents. Actual doctors then refute that and say "number of total hospitalized cases have dropped". Seriously...this is absurd


Some crazy tweet sequences there. Someone needs to break up the groupthink in Mecklenburg.
I said it in a post last night and I will say it again - for a handful of government leaders, Covid and the lock-downs present an opportunity to control people and suspend Constitutional rights. This is a big reason why the Attorney General has told his prosecutors to "be on the lookout" for local orders that may violate the Constitution. I am willing to accept some limited suspension of rights for a short period of time if they are justified (scientifically sound and based on data) and if they are severely limited and time-bound. If I find that we have met the terms of the social contract (modify behavior to bend the curve) and we are still locked down, I will no longer be supportive of the suspension of rights.
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RunsWithWolves26
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12:18a, 4/28/20
When this whole thing first started, I was concerned but not worried. I understood, or at least thought is understood, why the measures were taken that were taken. As this has gone on, I have changed completely my line of thinking. I've literally witnessed something I never thought I would, the mass overtaking of people's rights and the blatant way it has been done. I believe Davie said it before but the government had one shot at this and they failed miserably. I can't foresee in my lifetime, another time where the people will allow the government to just take their rights from them. This entire thing has gone way to far, IMO, and I hope(even though I know I am wrong) that people will speak their minds in November. The fact that a government so openly, blatantly, obviously and totally took away basic rights from people is not only sad but in some ways, scary. As one of Obama's people said before, never let a crisis go to waste. Damn if every politician from every side of the isle, sat back and made sure they took advantage of this one.
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packgrad
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In reply to PossumJenkins • 6:41a, 4/28/20
I picked on my mother last week for going to one of those chicken pick ups and getting 80#s of meat that she split with us, but I guess she knew what she was doing. We should be good for a while on meat.
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to RunsWithWolves26 • 8:21a, 4/28/20
Staff
RunsWithWolves26 said:
When this whole thing first started, I was concerned but not worried. I understood, or at least thought is understood, why the measures were taken that were taken. As this has gone on, I have changed completely my line of thinking. I've literally witnessed something I never thought I would, the mass overtaking of people's rights and the blatant way it has been done. I believe Davie said it before but the government had one shot at this and they failed miserably. I can't foresee in my lifetime, another time where the people will allow the government to just take their rights from them. This entire thing has gone way to far, IMO, and I hope(even though I know I am wrong) that people will speak their minds in November. The fact that a government so openly, blatantly, obviously and totally took away basic rights from people is not only sad but in some ways, scary. As one of Obama's people said before, never let a crisis go to waste. Damn if every politician from every side of the isle, sat back and made sure they took advantage of this one.
The courts are starting to get involved, so it will be interesting to start following the cases. In the first case I know of, a Republican lawmaker in Illinois sued the governor over his extension of his stay-at-home order and a judge has issued an injunction, allowing the lawmaker (injunction only applies to him) to ignore the stay-at-home order. This is likely the first of many actions to test governor's powers to restrict rights in the interest of public health. Governor Pritzker has said he will continue to fight this up through the courts and I hope he does. I would like to see how the courts view this in constitutional terms.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-illinois-stay-at-home-lawsuit-20200427-luf5hsnhpff7harnkckfopq26u-story.html
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Wayland
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8:26a, 4/28/20
IHME updated. They are going hard on countries/states that ease up.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
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statefan91
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In reply to Wayland • 8:59a, 4/28/20
Wayland said:
IHME updated. They are going hard on countries/states that ease up.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
I linked to it earlier in the thread, but there was a good discussion with 538 podcast with the person who oversees the model.

Davie you would probably like it, it gets into a good bit of technical terms.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-how-one-modeler-is-trying-to-forecast-the-toll-of-covid-19/

I see what you mean about the states that are relaxing. Looks like big ranges / bumps potentially for Colorado / Georgia / Texas / SC, with containment dates pushed out into June whereas North Carolina is mid-May
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RunsWithWolves26
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In reply to Wayland • 9:22a, 4/28/20
Wayland said:
IHME updated. They are going hard on countries/states that ease up.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates


I quit listening to the IHME since they still say we are short on beds.
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PackBacker07
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9:30a, 4/28/20
The legality question is interesting as it brings up a question I've always had: when do your rights end and other people's begin? I guess a better way to ask would be when your rights start to infringe on others safety, where is the line?
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packgrad
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In reply to PackBacker07 • 9:44a, 4/28/20
Unfortunately those rights are more likely to be influenced by an election year than they are data.
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IseWolf22
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In reply to RunsWithWolves26 • 9:49a, 4/28/20
RunsWithWolves26 said:
When this whole thing first started, I was concerned but not worried. I understood, or at least thought is understood, why the measures were taken that were taken. As this has gone on, I have changed completely my line of thinking. I've literally witnessed something I never thought I would, the mass overtaking of people's rights and the blatant way it has been done. I believe Davie said it before but the government had one shot at this and they failed miserably. I can't foresee in my lifetime, another time where the people will allow the government to just take their rights from them. This entire thing has gone way to far, IMO, and I hope(even though I know I am wrong) that people will speak their minds in November. The fact that a government so openly, blatantly, obviously and totally took away basic rights from people is not only sad but in some ways, scary. As one of Obama's people said before, never let a crisis go to waste. Damn if every politician from every side of the isle, sat back and made sure they took advantage of this one.
I feel similar.

At the beginning, I supported lock downs. There isn't enough data to know how contagious and how deadly Covid actually is. The smart thing was an abundance of caution given what we saw in other countries.

As the weeks have gone on, it's clear that while data is still lacking, it's less deadly than originally thought. Exponential growth has either been stopped or prevented entirely depending on the State. It's time to being phased reopening now. While I would support the ability to go up and down on those phases based on outbreaks and new data, I have no faith that the local, state, or Federal government officials have any idea what they are doing.
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IseWolf22
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In reply to PackBacker07 • 9:52a, 4/28/20
PackBacker07 said:
The legality question is interesting as it brings up a question I've always had: when do your rights end and other people's begin? I guess a better way to ask would be when your rights start to infringe on others safety, where is the line?
The government is always given the burden of proof to show that a restriction in someone's rights is justified. They have to be able to show that these restrictions save lives. Additionally, anything enacted should have clearly defined sunset provisions that do not allow rights to be taken away past the end of the crisis.
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Colonel Armstrong
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In reply to IseWolf22 • 9:54a, 4/28/20
I agree with this. Lockdowns were the right approach to begin with, but as we've learned more about the virus blanket lockdowns are not the best approach.
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packgrad
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10:01a, 4/28/20
Time will tell if quarantine was the right decision. I do still think our response, and continued response in NC, will undermine citizen follow through of future quarantines.
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to statefan91 • 10:28a, 4/28/20
Staff
statefan91 said:
Wayland said:
IHME updated. They are going hard on countries/states that ease up.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
I linked to it earlier in the thread, but there was a good discussion with 538 podcast with the person who oversees the model.

Davie you would probably like it, it gets into a good bit of technical terms.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-how-one-modeler-is-trying-to-forecast-the-toll-of-covid-19/

I see what you mean about the states that are relaxing. Looks like big ranges / bumps potentially for Colorado / Georgia / Texas / SC, with containment dates pushed out into June whereas North Carolina is mid-May
Thanks for the link. I will try to spend some time tonight watching it. I a very familiar with the 538 website and the work of Nate Silver. He really came to the forefront many years ago with his very accurate forecasting of elections and sporting events. One of his primary statistical tools is the use of Bayes Theorem and Bayesian statistics. In simple terms, Bayes Theorem involves the use of probabilities for conditional events to determine the probability of an outcome. He wrote a book on this called "The Signal and the Noise" and I have read parts of the book for fun. I think I have mentioned before that I am a big nerd.
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Daviewolf83
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10:39a, 4/28/20
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For context, I was reminded of a version of the flu from my early childhood. I definitely remember the "Hong Kong Flu", but I was only 9 years old at the time of its peak in the US, so I did not remember the details. To put the Covid-19 virus into context, here is what I found on the CDC's website regarding this flu from 1968-69:

"The 1968 pandemic was caused by an influenza A (H3N2) virus comprised of two genes from an avian influenza A virus, including a new H3 hemagglutinin, but also contained the N2 neuraminidase from the 1957 H2N2 virus. It was first noted in the United States in September 1968. The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older. The H3N2 virus continues to circulate worldwide as a seasonal influenza A virus. Seasonal H3N2 viruses, which are associated with severe illness in older people, undergo regular antigenic drift."

This sounds very familiar, doesn't it? Virus that made a jump from animals, affecting the blood and particularly fatal to people over the age of 65 with pre-existing conditions. By the way, I do remember that we did not shutdown the entire economy for this virus.

Since the US population in 1968 was approximately 200 million people, this means approximately 0.05% of the population died from the Hong Kong flu. As of today, there are 56,933 deaths from Covid-19 and we have a total population estimated at 331 million people. If you do the math, you will see that the percent of the population that has died so far from Covid-19 is 0.017%. To reach the same percentage of deaths for Covid-19, deaths in the US would need to affect 162,000 people. I really hope we do not come anywhere close to this number and Covid-19 turns out to be less deadly than the Hong Kong flu.
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Wayland
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In reply to Daviewolf83 • 10:41a, 4/28/20
Daviewolf83 said:
statefan91 said:
Wayland said:
IHME updated. They are going hard on countries/states that ease up.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
I linked to it earlier in the thread, but there was a good discussion with 538 podcast with the person who oversees the model.

Davie you would probably like it, it gets into a good bit of technical terms.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-how-one-modeler-is-trying-to-forecast-the-toll-of-covid-19/

I see what you mean about the states that are relaxing. Looks like big ranges / bumps potentially for Colorado / Georgia / Texas / SC, with containment dates pushed out into June whereas North Carolina is mid-May
Thanks for the link. I will try to spend some time tonight watching it. I a very familiar with the 538 website and the work of Nate Silver. He really came to the forefront many years ago with his very accurate forecasting of elections and sporting events. One of his primary statistical tools is the use of Bayes Theorem and Bayesian statistics. In simple terms, Bayes Theorem involves the use of probabilities for conditional events to determine the probability of an outcome. He wrote a book on this called "The Signal and the Noise" and I have read parts of the book for fun. I think I have mentioned before that I am a big nerd.
It was actually interesting to see how the model is framed when the 538 and IHME guys are talking about it vs. how the media reports what the model says.
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PackBacker07
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In reply to packgrad • 11:03a, 4/28/20
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Wayland
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In reply to Wayland • 11:03a, 4/28/20
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
4/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
5859
NC Deaths**
152
Currently Hospitalized
429 (87% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
72981

4/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:40am)

NC Cases*
6140
NC Deaths**
164
Currently Hospitalized
388 (88% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
76211

4/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
6493
NC Deaths**
172
Currently Hospitalized
465
Completed Tests
78772

66 Deaths are now Congregate (+7 since yesterday)
18 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not

That means 7 of the 8 deaths added to the total since yesterday are congregate deaths

59 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)

WRAL is at 188 (+2) and NandO is at 185. Again, the lag, I am guess is coming in trying to confirm death location. Don't know why the lag since WRAL was in the 180s on Friday.

85% of the deaths are 65+. That number keeps creeping up.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
6764
NC Deaths**
179
Currently Hospitalized
373
Completed Tests
79484
4/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:35am)

NC Cases*
6951
NC Deaths**
213
Currently Hospitalized
427
Completed Tests
83331
4/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
7220
NC Deaths**
242
Currently Hospitalized
434
Completed Tests
90336

116 Deaths are now Congregate (+20 since yesterday)
29 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not (+3)
+29 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+23 Not GenPop, +6 GenPop)

97 Deaths assumed General Population
145 Congregate and Unknown Setting.

67 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)

WRAL is at 244 (+2) and NandO is at 261

269 positive cases over 7005 new tests. 3.8% positive rate.

Why aren't we seeing all the reporting and media focus on the true crisis of congregate settings?
4/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
7608
NC Deaths**
253
Currently Hospitalized
486
Completed Tests
96185

124 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
31 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+10 Not GenPop, +1 GenPop)

98 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
155 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+10)

68 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 270 (+2) and NandO is at 273

388 positive cases over 5849 new tests. 6.6% positive rate.

DHHS is lagging hard on the media again but 10 of the 11 new deaths on DHHS were Congregate/Unknown. Only 1 was not.
4/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:40am)

NC Cases*
8052
NC Deaths**
269
Currently Hospitalized
477
Completed Tests
100,584

132 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+16 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+11 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)

103 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
166 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

73 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 279 (+2) and NandO is at 281 deaths

444 positive cases over 4399 new tests. 10% positive rate.

Positive test rate is above average today. That sucks big time, would like to know if this is largely indicative of a congregate outbreak(s). I guess a side benefit is, if we can get the positive rate to spike, we can show improvement.
4/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
8542 (subtracted 81 reporting error)
NC Deaths**
289
Currently Hospitalized
456
Completed Tests
105,265

148 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
35 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+17 Not GenPop, +3 GenPop)

106 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
183 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+17)

80 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7) <- Note a number of prisons added

WRAL is at 299 (+2) and NandO is at 304 deaths
4/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
8830
NC Deaths**
299
Currently Hospitalized
451
Completed Tests
107,894

155 Deaths are now Congregate (+7 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+6 Not GenPop, +4 GenPop)

110 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
189 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

81 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 306 (+2) and NandO is at 306 deaths

288 positive cases over 2629 new tests. 11% positive rate.
4/27/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:20am)

NC Cases*
9142
NC Deaths**
306
Currently Hospitalized
473
Completed Tests
109,920

159 Deaths are now Congregate (+4 since yesterday)
33 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+3 Not GenPop, +4 GenPop)

114 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
192 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

82 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 316 (+2) and NandO is at 325 deaths

312 positive cases over 2026 new tests. 15.4% positive rate.

Really low number of tests. Also starting to lag way behind media numbers, so expect a big spike as they clear lag tomorrow.

Deaths over 65 have hit their highest percentage of total deaths now accounting for 86% of the deaths.
10% are between 50 and 64 years of age and 4% between 25 and 49 years of age.
4/28/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
9568
NC Deaths**
342
Currently Hospitalized
463
Completed Tests
112,752

188 Deaths are now Congregate (+29 since yesterday)
33 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+36 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+29 Not GenPop, +7 GenPop)

121 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
221 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+29)

85 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)

WRAL is at 360 (+2) and NandO is at 360 deaths

426 positive cases over 2832 new tests. 15.0% positive rate. <- Note there was a women's prison and food plant outbreak in these numbers.

Interesting that DHHS is now including the number of NON-Congregate deaths in their Congregate data section. Showing how little impact to the general public there is.

This represents the weekend catch up I was expecting and then some. The number of Nursing Home/Congregate deaths is too hard to ignore. It is the true story.

Also deaths over 65 years of age have ticked up another percent to 87% of total.
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PackBacker07
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In reply to packgrad • 11:04a, 4/28/20
packgrad said:
Unfortunately those rights are more likely to be influenced by an election year than they are data.


I'm speaking in general terms? Not every post is about Trump or the election?
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PackBacker07
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In reply to IseWolf22 • 11:07a, 4/28/20
IseWolf22 said:
PackBacker07 said:
The legality question is interesting as it brings up a question I've always had: when do your rights end and other people's begin? I guess a better way to ask would be when your rights start to infringe on others safety, where is the line?
The government is always given the burden of proof to show that a restriction in someone's rights is justified. They have to be able to show that these restrictions save lives. Additionally, anything enacted should have clearly defined sunset provisions that do not allow rights to be taken away past the end of the crisis.


I definitely agree with the latter. So what about mandated vaccinations? I've always thought about this question in this regard. If it is proven to save lives and is mandated, but then someone doesn't vaccinate their child and a disease spreads in schools for instance, shouldn't that person be held liable? They are infringing on thousands of children's rights because of a misguided personal belief IMO.
Y'all means ALL.
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to Wayland • 11:13a, 4/28/20
Staff
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
4/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
5859
NC Deaths**
152
Currently Hospitalized
429 (87% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
72981

4/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:40am)

NC Cases*
6140
NC Deaths**
164
Currently Hospitalized
388 (88% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
76211

4/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
6493
NC Deaths**
172
Currently Hospitalized
465
Completed Tests
78772

66 Deaths are now Congregate (+7 since yesterday)
18 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not

That means 7 of the 8 deaths added to the total since yesterday are congregate deaths

59 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)

WRAL is at 188 (+2) and NandO is at 185. Again, the lag, I am guess is coming in trying to confirm death location. Don't know why the lag since WRAL was in the 180s on Friday.

85% of the deaths are 65+. That number keeps creeping up.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
6764
NC Deaths**
179
Currently Hospitalized
373
Completed Tests
79484
4/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:35am)

NC Cases*
6951
NC Deaths**
213
Currently Hospitalized
427
Completed Tests
83331
4/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
7220
NC Deaths**
242
Currently Hospitalized
434
Completed Tests
90336

116 Deaths are now Congregate (+20 since yesterday)
29 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not (+3)
+29 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+23 Not GenPop, +6 GenPop)

97 Deaths assumed General Population
145 Congregate and Unknown Setting.

67 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)

WRAL is at 244 (+2) and NandO is at 261

269 positive cases over 7005 new tests. 3.8% positive rate.

Why aren't we seeing all the reporting and media focus on the true crisis of congregate settings?
4/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
7608
NC Deaths**
253
Currently Hospitalized
486
Completed Tests
96185

124 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
31 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+10 Not GenPop, +1 GenPop)

98 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
155 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+10)

68 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 270 (+2) and NandO is at 273

388 positive cases over 5849 new tests. 6.6% positive rate.

DHHS is lagging hard on the media again but 10 of the 11 new deaths on DHHS were Congregate/Unknown. Only 1 was not.
4/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:40am)

NC Cases*
8052
NC Deaths**
269
Currently Hospitalized
477
Completed Tests
100,584

132 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+16 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+11 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)

103 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
166 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

73 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 279 (+2) and NandO is at 281 deaths

444 positive cases over 4399 new tests. 10% positive rate.

Positive test rate is above average today. That sucks big time, would like to know if this is largely indicative of a congregate outbreak(s). I guess a side benefit is, if we can get the positive rate to spike, we can show improvement.
4/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
8542 (subtracted 81 reporting error)
NC Deaths**
289
Currently Hospitalized
456
Completed Tests
105,265

148 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
35 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+17 Not GenPop, +3 GenPop)

106 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
183 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+17)

80 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7) <- Note a number of prisons added

WRAL is at 299 (+2) and NandO is at 304 deaths
4/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
8830
NC Deaths**
299
Currently Hospitalized
451
Completed Tests
107,894

155 Deaths are now Congregate (+7 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+6 Not GenPop, +4 GenPop)

110 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
189 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

81 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 306 (+2) and NandO is at 306 deaths

288 positive cases over 2629 new tests. 11% positive rate.
4/27/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:20am)

NC Cases*
9142
NC Deaths**
306
Currently Hospitalized
473
Completed Tests
109,920

159 Deaths are now Congregate (+4 since yesterday)
33 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+3 Not GenPop, +4 GenPop)

114 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
192 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

82 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 316 (+2) and NandO is at 325 deaths

312 positive cases over 2026 new tests. 15.4% positive rate.

Really low number of tests. Also starting to lag way behind media numbers, so expect a big spike as they clear lag tomorrow.

Deaths over 65 have hit their highest percentage of total deaths now accounting for 86% of the deaths.
10% are between 50 and 64 years of age and 4% between 25 and 49 years of age.
4/28/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
9568
NC Deaths**
342
Currently Hospitalized
463
Completed Tests
112,752

188 Deaths are now Congregate (+29 since yesterday)
33 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+36 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+29 Not GenPop, +7 GenPop)

121 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
221 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+29)

85 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)

WRAL is at 344 (+2) and NandO is at 337 deaths

426 positive cases over 2832 new tests. 15.0% positive rate. <- Note there was a women's prison and food plant outbreak in these numbers.

Interesting that DHHS is now including the number of NON-Congregate deaths in their Congregate data section. Showing how little impact to the general public there is.

This represents the weekend catch up I was expecting and then some. The number of Nursing Home/Congregate deaths is too hard to ignore. It is the true story.
North Carolina really needs to get a handle on the Congregate facilities and put a stop to the increases in cases (and eventual deaths) in these facilities. There has to be a statewide focus on this one area and the bulk of the testing should be targeted at anyone who enters these facilities from outside.

Yesterday, over half of the new cases came from Congregate facilities and 80% of the deaths (29 of 36) were from these facilities.
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Wayland
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11:24a, 4/28/20
I had missed tracking the cases coming out of congregate facilities.

Every state should be embarrassed. We saw it in Europe, we saw it with the first outbreak of in Kirkland, WA.

We should have known this would have been an issue for nursing homes and we didn't take it seriously.

Lock downs should not have been done, congregate lock downs should have. All the resources should have been thrown there.
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packgrad
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In reply to PackBacker07 • 11:28a, 4/28/20
PackBacker07 said:
packgrad said:
Unfortunately those rights are more likely to be influenced by an election year than they are data.


I'm speaking in general terms? Not every post is about Trump or the election?


I'm speaking about this virus and the handling of it by local NC leaders.
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wilmwolf
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In reply to Wayland • 11:33a, 4/28/20
Yup, the shutdown is a failure in my eyes because they didn't or couldn't protect the congregate facilities. Those places are like an island. The folks on the island don't typically leave the island, so you only have to control the flow of the disease in one direction. And they didn't. Maybe that shows that it's just not possible to stop the spread, which would fit with the information showing it is more more prevalent than reported. Either way, if the shutdown can't stop the nursing homes from getting hit, it was a waste to me
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barnburner
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12:04p, 4/28/20
I disagree wilm that the shutdown was useless. Could we have done it in a better way? In hindsight we could have but did we know enough at that time to make those decisions? There has no doubt many weeks lost fighting this virus due to incompetence to go around....
I hear the argument but also, what if we hadn't socially distanced? What would the impact been on the healthcare system? It took the shut down for everyone to pay attention. It has caused people to modify their behaviors and has kept many from contracting the disease such as to overwhelm the healthcare system. Talking about the adult care centers.. aren't there about 1200 in NC.. we had cases in how many? 70ish? It's not great but it is not abysmal either. I'm really not sure, but reading through the list of facilities infected in NC it seems about 2/3rd of the outbreaks have been in more rural areas.
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ciscopack
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12:07p, 4/28/20
No matter what.....testing and PPE is needed big time! We've know that now for 2 months.
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Wayland
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In reply to barnburner • 12:09p, 4/28/20
burnbarn said:
I disagree wilm that the shutdown was useless. Could we have done it in a better way? In hindsight we could have but did we know enough at that time to make those decisions? There has no doubt many weeks lost fighting this virus due to incompetence to go around....
I hear the argument but also, what if we hadn't socially distanced? What would the impact been on the healthcare system? It took the shut down for everyone to pay attention. It has caused people to modify their behaviors and has kept many from contracting the disease such as to overwhelm the healthcare system. Talking about the adult care centers.. aren't there about 1200 in NC.. we had cases in how many? 70ish? It's not great but it is not abysmal either. I'm really not sure, but reading through the list of facilities infected in NC it seems about 2/3rd of the outbreaks have been in more rural areas.
Per NC DHHS. There are 421 regulated nursing homes in NC. There have been outbreaks in 48 of them (ot just over 11%).

I don't have the numbers for Residential or Other Facilities.

I certainly do believe it could have been a lot worse. Honestly, if you compare NC to something like Sweden where something like 75% of their nursing homes were hit that probably is the difference in the death totals.

Hospitals were never going to be overrun. We didn't know that of course because we were sold a bad bill of goods. So for that moment in time, the lock down made some sense. Now we could open open, be moderately socially aware and the hospitals still wouldn't be overrun.

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wilmwolf
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In reply to barnburner • 12:20p, 4/28/20
I just don't think that based on the way it was implemented it could possibly have any meaningful impact. Did it affect the numbers? I'm sure it did in some way. But in actual practice, as long as people were allowed out, there were going to be interactions. There's no difference, none, in standing six feet apart in Home Depot and standing six feet apart in Belks. There's no difference in getting a massage and getting adjust by a chiropractor. Yet some of those things are allowed, and some aren't. If we had truly sheltered in place, which I don't think would ever happen, then yes, you could point to the numbers and say there was a dramatic impact. To me, if it is in the nursing homes, which haven't allowed visitors since this started, then there is evidence that it is spreading at a significant enough rate that the shutdown is ineffective at best. If everything had remained open, and the measures that are in place in Home Depot or Costco were in place in every business, would the numbers be meaningfully different? I don't think so. I think population density and other demographic factors have had as much of an impact as anything, as evidenced by which areas are hardest hit.
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to barnburner • 12:21p, 4/28/20
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burnbarn said:
I disagree wilm that the shutdown was useless. Could we have done it in a better way? In hindsight we could have but did we know enough at that time to make those decisions? There has no doubt many weeks lost fighting this virus due to incompetence to go around....
I hear the argument but also, what if we hadn't socially distanced? What would the impact been on the healthcare system? It took the shut down for everyone to pay attention. It has caused people to modify their behaviors and has kept many from contracting the disease such as to overwhelm the healthcare system. Talking about the adult care centers.. aren't there about 1200 in NC.. we had cases in how many? 70ish? It's not great but it is not abysmal either. I'm really not sure, but reading through the list of facilities infected in NC it seems about 2/3rd of the outbreaks have been in more rural areas.
There are 411 nursing homes in NC. I am not sure about residential facilities and total prison populations. The news yesterday regarding prisons is absolutely embarrassing for NC. According to news articles, they have been letting prisoners leave for work release in public jobs (fast food restaurants as an example they used), often times riding public transportation, and then returning to the congregate prison settings at night to eat and sleep. Basically, becoming infected and returning to an environment where people are mixed together in tight quarters, only to infect others in the population.
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to wilmwolf • 12:26p, 4/28/20
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wilmwolf80 said:
Yup, the shutdown is a failure in my eyes because they didn't or couldn't protect the congregate facilities. Those places are like an island. The folks on the island don't typically leave the island, so you only have to control the flow of the disease in one direction. And they didn't. Maybe that shows that it's just not possible to stop the spread, which would fit with the information showing it is more more prevalent than reported. Either way, if the shutdown can't stop the nursing homes from getting hit, it was a waste to me
Think of New York City as a big Congregate facility. What happened in NYC from a cases standpoint (percentage wise), is what we should expect for any Congregate facility where it is not totally locked down and we allow people from the outside, untested, to enter and infect others.

It is definitely impossible to stop the spread. We can only hope to slow it down. However, I do believe with proper precautions, cases and deaths in Congregate facilities can be greatly reduced. I saw an media report late last week of a nursing home in NY or NJ. In this case, the head of the facility and most of the staff were staying 24/7 in the facility and any staff person who left was screened when they returned. This particular facility was in one of he hardest impacted areas and they have had zero cases inside the facility.
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wilmwolf
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In reply to Daviewolf83 • 12:50p, 4/28/20
Right, which is what I described in the follow up post as to the reason I feel the shutdown was ineffective. In the circumstance where people are essentially sheltering in place in the facility, sure it works. But we didn't do that on a large scale, and that is why what we did do was largely ineffective in my eyes. That should've been the policy day one in those facilities and other at risk places, and the rest of society should've been practicing social distancing and going about their lives.
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packgrad
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12:53p, 4/28/20
Candace Owens on Twitter said, " According to the CDC, an estimated 24,000 Americans have died from the flu this seasondown from 80,000 flu deaths in 2018."

Wow.
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wilmwolf
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In reply to packgrad • 12:55p, 4/28/20
I saw it said somewhere that deaths in general over the last three months were down 4% from the same period last year, but I didn't follow through to see if that was actually accurate or not.
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Wayland
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In reply to packgrad • 12:56p, 4/28/20
packgrad said:
Candace Owens on Twitter said, " According to the CDC, an estimated 24,000 Americans have died from the flu this seasondown from 80,000 flu deaths in 2018."

Wow.
2017-2018 was one of the more severe recent flu seasons, but yes, most people aren't aware than in any given flu season between 30-60k people die. It is hard for people to rationalize death numbers when they are bombarded by media induced fear.
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