Your anger at the politicians is obvious and I get it. However, I'd throw in and I know you know but politicians are over-the-top sensitive to public perception and the media has basically backed them in a corner. Either the politician conforms to the chaos and sensationalism being perpetuated by the media or the media goes scorched earth on them to turn public opinion. I can't wait to see how the media is going to blister the governors of Georgia, South Carolina, etc.RunsWithWolves26 said:Everpack said:
Am I the only one who gets on social media and feels like I'm taking crazy pills? People are absolutely scared ****less of this virus and have no reasoning other than news headlines.
I spent an embarrassing amount of time yesterday running some numbers based on the top ten hit states. I've said all along that I felt strongly that this virus affects high density urban areas differently. My crude research confirms that. The ten states most affected (NY, NJ, MI, MA, PA, IL, CA, LA, CT and FL) account for about 43% of the USA population, but have 73% of all positive cases and 82% of deaths. Those numbers are insane to me, but if you dive in a little further and look at each state individually you'll see that almost all of the high numbers come from the major metros. NYC and the surrounding commuting counties make up about 5% of the US population, but account for 50% of deaths! 82% of the deaths in Michigan are in three counties that make up Detroit and suburbs. 88% of the Illinois deaths come from four counties around Chicago. If you add Philly, LA, Miami, New Orleans and Boston metros to the above mentioned cities, you can account for about 54% of all cases and 66% of all deaths. Eight cities with about 16% of the countries population has two-thirds of our deaths. Surely someone smarter than me can see this, too. What am I missing? Am I the one that's out of touch?
Nope. You are not out of touch. We are dealing with a government, regardless of party affiliation, federal, state or local that are all clueless. Not a dang one knows what they are doing. Some are doing better then others but thats just a case of one being less dumb then the others.
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It is interesting that media have made a big deal our of Georgia and South Carolina starting to lift restrictions, but there has been no mention of Colorado. They will begin opening up next Monday. Of course, we are told the media are not biased, but it is interesting that the Georgia and South Carolina governors are Republicans and the Colorado governor a Democrat. Interesting how they only mention the states run by the Republicans.Steve Williams said:Your anger at the politicians is obvious and I get it. However, I'd throw in and I know you know but politicians are over-the-top sensitive to public perception and the media has basically backed them in a corner. Either the politician conforms to the chaos and sensationalism being perpetuated by the media or the media goes scorched earth on them to turn public opinion. I can't wait to see how the media is going to blister the governors of Georgia, South Carolina, etc.RunsWithWolves26 said:Everpack said:
Am I the only one who gets on social media and feels like I'm taking crazy pills? People are absolutely scared ****less of this virus and have no reasoning other than news headlines.
I spent an embarrassing amount of time yesterday running some numbers based on the top ten hit states. I've said all along that I felt strongly that this virus affects high density urban areas differently. My crude research confirms that. The ten states most affected (NY, NJ, MI, MA, PA, IL, CA, LA, CT and FL) account for about 43% of the USA population, but have 73% of all positive cases and 82% of deaths. Those numbers are insane to me, but if you dive in a little further and look at each state individually you'll see that almost all of the high numbers come from the major metros. NYC and the surrounding commuting counties make up about 5% of the US population, but account for 50% of deaths! 82% of the deaths in Michigan are in three counties that make up Detroit and suburbs. 88% of the Illinois deaths come from four counties around Chicago. If you add Philly, LA, Miami, New Orleans and Boston metros to the above mentioned cities, you can account for about 54% of all cases and 66% of all deaths. Eight cities with about 16% of the countries population has two-thirds of our deaths. Surely someone smarter than me can see this, too. What am I missing? Am I the one that's out of touch?
Nope. You are not out of touch. We are dealing with a government, regardless of party affiliation, federal, state or local that are all clueless. Not a dang one knows what they are doing. Some are doing better then others but thats just a case of one being less dumb then the others.
Daviewolf83 said:It is interesting that media have made a big deal our of Georgia and South Carolina starting to lift restrictions, but there has been no mention of Colorado. They will begin opening up next Monday. Of course, we are told the media are not biased, but it is interesting that the Georgia and South Carolina governors are Republicans and the Colorado governor a Democrat. Interesting how they only mention the states run by the Republicans.Steve Williams said:Your anger at the politicians is obvious and I get it. However, I'd throw in and I know you know but politicians are over-the-top sensitive to public perception and the media has basically backed them in a corner. Either the politician conforms to the chaos and sensationalism being perpetuated by the media or the media goes scorched earth on them to turn public opinion. I can't wait to see how the media is going to blister the governors of Georgia, South Carolina, etc.RunsWithWolves26 said:Everpack said:
Am I the only one who gets on social media and feels like I'm taking crazy pills? People are absolutely scared ****less of this virus and have no reasoning other than news headlines.
I spent an embarrassing amount of time yesterday running some numbers based on the top ten hit states. I've said all along that I felt strongly that this virus affects high density urban areas differently. My crude research confirms that. The ten states most affected (NY, NJ, MI, MA, PA, IL, CA, LA, CT and FL) account for about 43% of the USA population, but have 73% of all positive cases and 82% of deaths. Those numbers are insane to me, but if you dive in a little further and look at each state individually you'll see that almost all of the high numbers come from the major metros. NYC and the surrounding commuting counties make up about 5% of the US population, but account for 50% of deaths! 82% of the deaths in Michigan are in three counties that make up Detroit and suburbs. 88% of the Illinois deaths come from four counties around Chicago. If you add Philly, LA, Miami, New Orleans and Boston metros to the above mentioned cities, you can account for about 54% of all cases and 66% of all deaths. Eight cities with about 16% of the countries population has two-thirds of our deaths. Surely someone smarter than me can see this, too. What am I missing? Am I the one that's out of touch?
Nope. You are not out of touch. We are dealing with a government, regardless of party affiliation, federal, state or local that are all clueless. Not a dang one knows what they are doing. Some are doing better then others but thats just a case of one being less dumb then the others.
It's been in the NYT, WaPo, and CNN? All places some criticize for being left-leaning. In fact, I learned CO is going to do this by an article on CNN.
If we're talking about the primetime shows, I wouldn't know because a) they're all trash and b) they're opinion/entertainment shows that people construe for actual news.
But, the info is out there. I also don't mean this to be confrontational!
Steve Williams said:Your anger at the politicians is obvious and I get it. However, I'd throw in and I know you know but politicians are over-the-top sensitive to public perception and the media has basically backed them in a corner. Either the politician conforms to the chaos and sensationalism being perpetuated by the media or the media goes scorched earth on them to turn public opinion. I can't wait to see how the media is going to blister the governors of Georgia, South Carolina, etc.RunsWithWolves26 said:Everpack said:
Am I the only one who gets on social media and feels like I'm taking crazy pills? People are absolutely scared ****less of this virus and have no reasoning other than news headlines.
I spent an embarrassing amount of time yesterday running some numbers based on the top ten hit states. I've said all along that I felt strongly that this virus affects high density urban areas differently. My crude research confirms that. The ten states most affected (NY, NJ, MI, MA, PA, IL, CA, LA, CT and FL) account for about 43% of the USA population, but have 73% of all positive cases and 82% of deaths. Those numbers are insane to me, but if you dive in a little further and look at each state individually you'll see that almost all of the high numbers come from the major metros. NYC and the surrounding commuting counties make up about 5% of the US population, but account for 50% of deaths! 82% of the deaths in Michigan are in three counties that make up Detroit and suburbs. 88% of the Illinois deaths come from four counties around Chicago. If you add Philly, LA, Miami, New Orleans and Boston metros to the above mentioned cities, you can account for about 54% of all cases and 66% of all deaths. Eight cities with about 16% of the countries population has two-thirds of our deaths. Surely someone smarter than me can see this, too. What am I missing? Am I the one that's out of touch?
Nope. You are not out of touch. We are dealing with a government, regardless of party affiliation, federal, state or local that are all clueless. Not a dang one knows what they are doing. Some are doing better then others but thats just a case of one being less dumb then the others.
My anger is towards these politicians who don't have a set of balls on them and can't **** without asking the media and their collective donors if it's ok. That's my anger. If a politician actually stood up and said he or she was going to do what was actually in the best interest of the people and not what the media tells them to do, I may actually respect that. Instead, my grandma, who is in a nursing home, is left out to dry because these dumb ****ing politicians can't get their collective heads out their asses and figure out anything halfass helpful to do. Show me a politician that says screw what the media says and I will show you a politician I can support. And don't say trump. Notice how he has dropped the Chinese virus crap? He conforms to the media as well. Fact remains, ain't a damn politician worth a **** in this entire fiasco. As someone who supported the limiting what you can and can't do when it was announced, I am fully and totally against it now.
Gotta love that IHME model. Went up on total deaths again. Says we've reached out peak for hospital beds, etc but still says we are going to be short before this is over. Makes perfect sense to me.
I think IHME is updated. Not sure I jive with their new numbers. But they love them some NC
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They did update the data and as I mentioned yesterday, I would expect total deaths to move back to a little above 300. The version before this one was running slightly behind the actual deaths, so I expected the new projections to be between the latest two versions and this is exactly what has happened.Wayland said:
I think IHME is updated. Not sure I jive with their new numbers. But they love them some NC
I think we will see tomorrow or Thursday that over half the deaths are coming from Congregate facilities. I believe deaths for the non-Congregate general population are falling. I believe this is the case, since hospitalizations have been flat for several days. It means most deaths are occurring in the nursing homes and not being admitted to hospitals.
Also, I finally figured out why WRAL's and N&O's death counts are so much higher than the NCDHHS updates. There is an article in the N&O and on WRAL's site explaining how they are collecting deaths. They have reporters around the state tracking down death certificates for every county. If there is an indication that a person died from Covid-19 symptoms, they are counting them as a Covid death, even if it was not officially indicated and even before lab results are returned. The NCDHHS numbers are only recorded as a Covid death after a lab confirmation. This is why the main reason the media's numbers are so much higher and why they are ahead of the state's updates.
That's good that they're tracking the death certificates down. Would it kill them to break out the deaths of general pop vs congregate!?
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Thanks for pointing this out. I have watched the local news, followed Twitter updates for some news organizations (I do not follow CNN or Fox News on Twitter - both are too biased and both make crap up for headlines), and watched the national broadcasts and all seem to be focused on Georgia and South Carolina. It is interesting in the Federal Task Force update tonight with the President, the only questions were about Georgia. No mention of Colorado or South Carolina.PackBacker07 said:Daviewolf83 said:It is interesting that media have made a big deal our of Georgia and South Carolina starting to lift restrictions, but there has been no mention of Colorado. They will begin opening up next Monday. Of course, we are told the media are not biased, but it is interesting that the Georgia and South Carolina governors are Republicans and the Colorado governor a Democrat. Interesting how they only mention the states run by the Republicans.Steve Williams said:Your anger at the politicians is obvious and I get it. However, I'd throw in and I know you know but politicians are over-the-top sensitive to public perception and the media has basically backed them in a corner. Either the politician conforms to the chaos and sensationalism being perpetuated by the media or the media goes scorched earth on them to turn public opinion. I can't wait to see how the media is going to blister the governors of Georgia, South Carolina, etc.RunsWithWolves26 said:Everpack said:
Am I the only one who gets on social media and feels like I'm taking crazy pills? People are absolutely scared ****less of this virus and have no reasoning other than news headlines.
I spent an embarrassing amount of time yesterday running some numbers based on the top ten hit states. I've said all along that I felt strongly that this virus affects high density urban areas differently. My crude research confirms that. The ten states most affected (NY, NJ, MI, MA, PA, IL, CA, LA, CT and FL) account for about 43% of the USA population, but have 73% of all positive cases and 82% of deaths. Those numbers are insane to me, but if you dive in a little further and look at each state individually you'll see that almost all of the high numbers come from the major metros. NYC and the surrounding commuting counties make up about 5% of the US population, but account for 50% of deaths! 82% of the deaths in Michigan are in three counties that make up Detroit and suburbs. 88% of the Illinois deaths come from four counties around Chicago. If you add Philly, LA, Miami, New Orleans and Boston metros to the above mentioned cities, you can account for about 54% of all cases and 66% of all deaths. Eight cities with about 16% of the countries population has two-thirds of our deaths. Surely someone smarter than me can see this, too. What am I missing? Am I the one that's out of touch?
Nope. You are not out of touch. We are dealing with a government, regardless of party affiliation, federal, state or local that are all clueless. Not a dang one knows what they are doing. Some are doing better then others but thats just a case of one being less dumb then the others.
It's been in the NYT, WaPo, and CNN? All places some criticize for being left-leaning. In fact, I learned CO is going to do this by an article on CNN.
If we're talking about the primetime shows, I wouldn't know because a) they're all trash and b) they're opinion/entertainment shows that people construe for actual news.
But, the info is out there. I also don't mean this to be confrontational!
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I do not expect them to break this out, since the news for the general population appears to be improving. The state is splitting this information out and this is the reason I can safely say the Congregate deaths will exceed Non-congregate deaths. In most European countries, Congregate deaths were approximately half of all deaths. Currently, 85% of deaths are people 65+ and I suspect the average age of death is likely close to 80, based on stats out of other states. NC does not breakdown deaths beyond 65 years of age.statefan91 said:
That's good that they're tracking the death certificates down. Would it kill them to break out the deaths of general pop vs congregate!?
I would also point out that the deaths this week are from people who were infected the first week of April, when the lock-downs went in place. As such, this week will likely be the peak of cases and deaths should peak next week - if the lock-downs were effective.
The problem in the death rate is the state failed where the people are most vulnerable. Congregate settings
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I 100% agree. We knew over a month ago from the data out of Italy and Spain that the most at risk groups are people over the age of 70 and people with certain preexisting conditions. If you protect the nursing homes and lock-down everyone else, you can cut the number of deaths in NC in half. Failure to protect the nursing homes will likely lead to over 150 deaths from nursing homes.Wayland said:
The problem in the death rate is the state failed where the people are most vulnerable. Congregate settings
One piece of good news Dr. Birx announced tonight is the US has one of the lowest mortality rates in the world. So, the US leads in deaths, but our mortality rates are one of the lowest. So, it could have been much worse in the US if our mortality rate had been more like the rates in several European countries.
New earliest US death found.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/22/death-coronavirus-first-california/?utm_source=reddit.com
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/22/death-coronavirus-first-california/?utm_source=reddit.com
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This is maddening to me.Daviewolf83 said:They did update the data and as I mentioned yesterday, I would expect total deaths to move back to a little above 300. The version before this one was running slightly behind the actual deaths, so I expected the new projections to be between the latest two versions and this is exactly what has happened.Wayland said:
I think IHME is updated. Not sure I jive with their new numbers. But they love them some NC
I think we will see tomorrow or Thursday that over half the deaths are coming from Congregate facilities. I believe deaths for the non-Congregate general population are falling. I believe this is the case, since hospitalizations have been flat for several days. It means most deaths are occurring in the nursing homes and not being admitted to hospitals.
Also, I finally figured out why WRAL's and N&O's death counts are so much higher than the NCDHHS updates. There is an article in the N&O and on WRAL's site explaining how they are collecting deaths. They have reporters around the state tracking down death certificates for every county. If there is an indication that a person died from Covid-19 symptoms, they are counting them as a Covid death, even if it was not officially indicated and even before lab results are returned. The NCDHHS numbers are only recorded as a Covid death after a lab confirmation. This is why the main reason the media's numbers are so much higher and why they are ahead of the state's updates.
Netherlands, population 17 million with ~4,000 deaths from covid, are opening schools on May 11th.
North Carolina, population 10.5 million with ~240 deaths, still has no plan.
Raleigh mayor (Wake County has 9 deaths) says "We don't want to rush out and say hey were open for business and then have another surge in May,"
What surge?????? There was no surge??? Protect the damn nursing homes and this thing is a blip in NC. These people have no sense of reality. If this is what Wake County leaders truly believe we have no hope of getting out.
How do we ease restrictions when 'the worst has past' when outside of congregate settings, we never really had a 'worst'? Hopefully the congregate deaths and outbreaks can stop because our leaders can't discern any nuance in statistics.
Nor do they seem to be able to take pause, look around the U.S. and World and go "Look at all these places that got crapped on a ton worse than NC and seem to be pulling it together and starting back up"
North Carolina, population 10.5 million with ~240 deaths, still has no plan.
Raleigh mayor (Wake County has 9 deaths) says "We don't want to rush out and say hey were open for business and then have another surge in May,"
What surge?????? There was no surge??? Protect the damn nursing homes and this thing is a blip in NC. These people have no sense of reality. If this is what Wake County leaders truly believe we have no hope of getting out.
How do we ease restrictions when 'the worst has past' when outside of congregate settings, we never really had a 'worst'? Hopefully the congregate deaths and outbreaks can stop because our leaders can't discern any nuance in statistics.
Nor do they seem to be able to take pause, look around the U.S. and World and go "Look at all these places that got crapped on a ton worse than NC and seem to be pulling it together and starting back up"
Preach!!!
Saw this similar story on WBTV last night, under the lead of "data issues with NC covid cases"....I assumed they were going to talk about what Davie and Wayland keep referring to with segregation of different groups of of cases, recoveries, etc.....but the actual reporter headline was "State of NC under-reporting Covid deaths". The story was that NC was only officially reporting those with lab confirmation of Covid.but that reporters were pouring thru death certificates. It's almost like they want it to be higher. Can't imagine why.Steve Williams said:This is maddening to me.Daviewolf83 said:They did update the data and as I mentioned yesterday, I would expect total deaths to move back to a little above 300. The version before this one was running slightly behind the actual deaths, so I expected the new projections to be between the latest two versions and this is exactly what has happened.Wayland said:
I think IHME is updated. Not sure I jive with their new numbers. But they love them some NC
I think we will see tomorrow or Thursday that over half the deaths are coming from Congregate facilities. I believe deaths for the non-Congregate general population are falling. I believe this is the case, since hospitalizations have been flat for several days. It means most deaths are occurring in the nursing homes and not being admitted to hospitals.
Also, I finally figured out why WRAL's and N&O's death counts are so much higher than the NCDHHS updates. There is an article in the N&O and on WRAL's site explaining how they are collecting deaths. They have reporters around the state tracking down death certificates for every county. If there is an indication that a person died from Covid-19 symptoms, they are counting them as a Covid death, even if it was not officially indicated and even before lab results are returned. The NCDHHS numbers are only recorded as a Covid death after a lab confirmation. This is why the main reason the media's numbers are so much higher and why they are ahead of the state's updates.
When I heard
I will be routing for Georgia and other places as well. Georgia has more focus right now b/c they are taking the most aggressive steps I believe. Correct me if wrong but I don't think SC or CO are opening restaurants on Monday or other businesses like salons and theaters like GA is this week. I hope they are able to find a responsible and successful way to do this. It could be a model for the country. If it winds up a disaster it'll only feed the fear and the lockdown status. But one thing is for sure this whole crisis has become political at almost every level.
You are correct on GA. They are being the most aggressive. I'm all for, and believe we should be moving towards, a staged reopening, but share the same concerns about GA. From what I've read it sounds like the GA gov decided to do this but hasn't had much interaction with the mayors of the major cities in the state. Hoping for the best but just from the little I've read seems there could be a little more communication and guidelines
Absolutely political. Ever since Trump announced he wanted to reopen the economy, the left has switched from flattening the curve to vaccine. Hell, what was it a day after Trumps announcement that the mayor of LA said no events in 2020. Lol. It's infuriating the sacrifice they are willing to make to get a new President.
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I just reviewed the Federal Health and Human Service's guidelines for recording deaths. In summary:
1. If the patient had an underlying issue such as COPD, pneumonia, heart condition, diabetes, etc, those causes are to be listed first in order on the death certificate.
2. If it is known or strongly indicated that the person had Covid-19, it should be listed on the death certificate, below the other underlying conditions.
3. If the patient did not have another underlying condition and the person died from complications due to the Covid-19 virus as verified by a lab or if it is "probable" or "presumed" to be the cause, Covid-19 should be listed on a death certificate. If listing as "probable" or "presumed" the guidance says "the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty."
4. The guidance also states, " ... please note that testing for COVID19 should be conducted whenever possible."
You can read the full guidelines here: Federal Government Covid-19 Death Reporting Guidelines
What the media are doing is tricky and this is the point of the article I read last night. They do not know the patients medical history and by law, they can not have access to the patient's medical records. As such, they must rely on what is listed on the death certificate. Personally, I think they need to avoid making assumptions, even when they suspect Covid-19 contributed to the person's death, unless they have other knowledge about the patient's immediate medical history.
I will continue to rely and track the numbers being published by the NCDHHS website. They are reporting what the county health departments are reporting and there can be a lag in reporting, due to a need to wait for a lab reports to come back. The media are not waiting for the final lab reports and this is why their counts in some cases are higher for a period of time than what the state is reporting. When the lab reports are returned, the state catches up to the media's reporting. However, I do not think the state's numbers will ever match the media's numbers, unless the state changes their guidelines.
I do understand the media's desire to have the most accurate death count possible. I want to have this information and I would like for it to be as timely as possible, so we could accurately track the curves for cases and deaths. However, I would say the media needs to be cautious to not include any death that they suspect, if they do not have a good indication of the patients immediate medical history.
1. If the patient had an underlying issue such as COPD, pneumonia, heart condition, diabetes, etc, those causes are to be listed first in order on the death certificate.
2. If it is known or strongly indicated that the person had Covid-19, it should be listed on the death certificate, below the other underlying conditions.
3. If the patient did not have another underlying condition and the person died from complications due to the Covid-19 virus as verified by a lab or if it is "probable" or "presumed" to be the cause, Covid-19 should be listed on a death certificate. If listing as "probable" or "presumed" the guidance says "the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty."
4. The guidance also states, " ... please note that testing for COVID19 should be conducted whenever possible."
You can read the full guidelines here: Federal Government Covid-19 Death Reporting Guidelines
What the media are doing is tricky and this is the point of the article I read last night. They do not know the patients medical history and by law, they can not have access to the patient's medical records. As such, they must rely on what is listed on the death certificate. Personally, I think they need to avoid making assumptions, even when they suspect Covid-19 contributed to the person's death, unless they have other knowledge about the patient's immediate medical history.
I will continue to rely and track the numbers being published by the NCDHHS website. They are reporting what the county health departments are reporting and there can be a lag in reporting, due to a need to wait for a lab reports to come back. The media are not waiting for the final lab reports and this is why their counts in some cases are higher for a period of time than what the state is reporting. When the lab reports are returned, the state catches up to the media's reporting. However, I do not think the state's numbers will ever match the media's numbers, unless the state changes their guidelines.
I do understand the media's desire to have the most accurate death count possible. I want to have this information and I would like for it to be as timely as possible, so we could accurately track the curves for cases and deaths. However, I would say the media needs to be cautious to not include any death that they suspect, if they do not have a good indication of the patients immediate medical history.
https://www.charlotteobserver.com./news/local/article242167291.html
Charlotte Observer at it again, not actually asking questions.
And County officials spreading lies.
"As of April 15, because of the local stay-at-home order, positive cases were doubling every six days instead of at a previous rate of every 2.85 days hospital leaders told Mecklenburg County Manager Dena Diorio in a letter at the time."
Actually it had taken 14 days to double to the positive case number on the 15th. The last time the doubling rate was under 3 days was March 26th. Observer really lapping up the misinformation Mecklenburg is selling.
3/26/2020 - 204 positive cases
3/23/2020 - 106 positive cases
Charlotte Observer at it again, not actually asking questions.
And County officials spreading lies.
"As of April 15, because of the local stay-at-home order, positive cases were doubling every six days instead of at a previous rate of every 2.85 days hospital leaders told Mecklenburg County Manager Dena Diorio in a letter at the time."
Actually it had taken 14 days to double to the positive case number on the 15th. The last time the doubling rate was under 3 days was March 26th. Observer really lapping up the misinformation Mecklenburg is selling.
3/26/2020 - 204 positive cases
3/23/2020 - 106 positive cases
They've really painted the stay at home orders in a light where there's a no lose scenario for the leaders. Anything positive that happens, they point to the orders and say, see, we told you it will work. Any negative turn, and they can say it was because people weren't following the orders well enough. All of these congregate deaths have happened well after the orders were put in place. Anyone contracting it currently has been exposed to it during the orders, and since those people are now infecting the most vulnerable group, IMO the orders are an abject failure. If you can't protect a vulnerable, stationary, confined population, what are we doing here?
Needs to be asked as they continue to parrot 'stay at home is working'. Infection and death rate seems a lot more correlated around the world to congregate population penetration and population density than it does to 'stay at home'.wilmwolf80 said:
They've really painted the stay at home orders in a light where there's a no lose scenario for the leaders. Anything positive that happens, they point to the orders and say, see, we told you it will work. Any negative turn, and they can say it was because people weren't following the orders well enough. All of these congregate deaths have happened well after the orders were put in place. Anyone contracting it currently has been exposed to it during the orders, and since those people are now infecting the most vulnerable group, IMO the orders are an abject failure. If you can't protect a vulnerable, stationary, confined population, what are we doing here?
4/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:35am)Wayland said:
4/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
5859
NC Deaths**
152
Currently Hospitalized
429 (87% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
72981
4/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
6140
NC Deaths**
164
Currently Hospitalized
388 (88% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
76211
4/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
6493
NC Deaths**
172
Currently Hospitalized
465
Completed Tests
78772
66 Deaths are now Congregate (+7 since yesterday)
18 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not
That means 7 of the 8 deaths added to the total since yesterday are congregate deaths
59 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)
WRAL is at 188 (+2) and NandO is at 185. Again, the lag, I am guess is coming in trying to confirm death location. Don't know why the lag since WRAL was in the 180s on Friday.
85% of the deaths are 65+. That number keeps creeping up.
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4/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
6764
NC Deaths**
179
Currently Hospitalized
373
Completed Tests
79484
73 Deaths are now Congregate (+7 since yesterday)
20 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not (+2)
NC Deaths went up by 7 but Congregate/unconfirmed went up by 9.
61 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 196 (+2) and NandO is at 199. Again, the lag, I am guess is coming in trying to confirm death location. Don't know why the lag since WRAL was in the 180s on Friday. Maybe counties are reporting deaths that aren't lab confirmed?
Deaths under 50 down to 4%
Still don't know why the crazy lag on DHHS. They are now 13-16 deaths behind yesterdays media counts.
NC Cases*
6951
NC Deaths**
213
Currently Hospitalized
427
Completed Tests
83331
96 Deaths are now Congregate (+23 since yesterday)
26 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not (+6)
+34 Deaths since yesterday. +29 Not GenPop
91 Deaths assumed General Population
122 Congregate and Unknown Origin.
65 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)
WRAL is at 221 (+2) and NandO is at 233
MASSIVE Congregate Spike
NC Cases*
7220
NC Deaths**
242
Currently Hospitalized
434
Completed Tests
90336
116 Deaths are now Congregate (+20 since yesterday)
29 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not (+3)
+29 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+23 Not GenPop, +6 GenPop)
97 Deaths assumed General Population
145 Congregate and Unknown Setting.
67 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 244 (+2) and NandO is at 261
269 positive cases over 7005 new tests. 3.8% positive rate.
Why aren't we seeing all the reporting and media focus on the true crisis of congregate settings?
Unfortunately it boils down to perceived power by politicians I believe. If it looks like there is a bigger issue than what there really is politicians at all levels of government push that boundary a lot further then they could normally get away with otherwise.Wayland said:4/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:35am)Wayland said:
4/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
5859
NC Deaths**
152
Currently Hospitalized
429 (87% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
72981
4/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
6140
NC Deaths**
164
Currently Hospitalized
388 (88% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
76211
4/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
6493
NC Deaths**
172
Currently Hospitalized
465
Completed Tests
78772
66 Deaths are now Congregate (+7 since yesterday)
18 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not
That means 7 of the 8 deaths added to the total since yesterday are congregate deaths
59 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)
WRAL is at 188 (+2) and NandO is at 185. Again, the lag, I am guess is coming in trying to confirm death location. Don't know why the lag since WRAL was in the 180s on Friday.
85% of the deaths are 65+. That number keeps creeping up.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
6764
NC Deaths**
179
Currently Hospitalized
373
Completed Tests
79484
73 Deaths are now Congregate (+7 since yesterday)
20 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not (+2)
NC Deaths went up by 7 but Congregate/unconfirmed went up by 9.
61 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 196 (+2) and NandO is at 199. Again, the lag, I am guess is coming in trying to confirm death location. Don't know why the lag since WRAL was in the 180s on Friday. Maybe counties are reporting deaths that aren't lab confirmed?
Deaths under 50 down to 4%
Still don't know why the crazy lag on DHHS. They are now 13-16 deaths behind yesterdays media counts.
NC Cases*
6951
NC Deaths**
213
Currently Hospitalized
427
Completed Tests
83331
96 Deaths are now Congregate (+23 since yesterday)
26 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not (+6)
+34 Deaths since yesterday. +29 Not GenPop
91 Deaths assumed General Population
122 Congregate and Unknown Origin.
65 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)
WRAL is at 221 (+2) and NandO is at 233
MASSIVE Congregate Spike
NC Cases*
7220
NC Deaths**
242
Currently Hospitalized
434
Completed Tests
90336
116 Deaths are now Congregate (+20 since yesterday)
29 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not (+3)
+29 Deaths since yesterday. +23 Not GenPop
97 Deaths assumed General Population
145 Congregate and Unknown Setting.
67 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 244 (+2) and NandO is at 261
269 positive cases over 7005 new tests. 3.8% positive rate.
Why aren't we seeing all the reporting and media focus on the true crisis of congregate settings?
If you tell a population of over 13 million that there is something that only 97 people, outside of congregate settings have died from, you wouldn't be able to get away with shutting down things without a ton of push back...but if you say that the model is showing some crazy high number then people get scared. People get scared and tend to follow the argument of having their rights taken away for their own safety.
The more we learn about this virus and the more data we have, I think it's clear that congregate facilities need to adopt a new approach.
Maybe funding set aside for staff to live on site and receive overtime pay? That will limit the staff's contact to the outside world and help isolate those facilities and prevents the spread.
EDIT: I'm referring to state or federal funding.
Maybe funding set aside for staff to live on site and receive overtime pay? That will limit the staff's contact to the outside world and help isolate those facilities and prevents the spread.
EDIT: I'm referring to state or federal funding.
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Over the past four days, Congregate deaths have averaged 14.3 deaths per day and Non-Congregate deaths per day have averaged 5.25 deaths per day. So on average, Congregate deaths per day are almost three times as many as Non-Congregate (general population) deaths. I agree the focus of the media should be on this factor and not the effect of the virus on the general NC population. I am not sure why this is not getting the focus it deserves.
I have added the latest IHME model data (4/21 version) to the model comparison chart and you can see the results below. The latest update may be the most accurate in tracking the death rate, but we will see how it does over the next few days. I would also point out that the growth in hospitalization rates is basically flat (graph of logarithmic plot is attached). I have just started tracking new daily cases, separating out Congregate and Non-Congregate cases as you can see from the attached graph. The growth rate of new daily cases is also basically flat, as you can see from the graph below.
IHME Model Comparison
New Daily Cases - Logarithmic plot showing flat day to day growth in cases
Hospitalizations - Logarithmic plot showing flat changes in the growth of hospitalizations
Stacked Bar for Congregate vs Non-Congregate Daily Deaths
I have added the latest IHME model data (4/21 version) to the model comparison chart and you can see the results below. The latest update may be the most accurate in tracking the death rate, but we will see how it does over the next few days. I would also point out that the growth in hospitalization rates is basically flat (graph of logarithmic plot is attached). I have just started tracking new daily cases, separating out Congregate and Non-Congregate cases as you can see from the attached graph. The growth rate of new daily cases is also basically flat, as you can see from the graph below.
IHME Model Comparison
New Daily Cases - Logarithmic plot showing flat day to day growth in cases
Hospitalizations - Logarithmic plot showing flat changes in the growth of hospitalizations
Stacked Bar for Congregate vs Non-Congregate Daily Deaths
Daviewolf83 said:
Over the past four days, Congregate deaths have averaged 14.3 deaths per day and Non-Congregate deaths per day have averaged 5.25 deaths per day. So on average, Congregate deaths per day are almost three times as many as Non-Congregate (general population) deaths. I agree the focus of the media should be on this factor and not the effect of the virus on the general NC population. I am not sure why this is not getting the focus it deserves.
I have added the latest IHME model data (4/21 version) to the model comparison chart and you can see the results below. The latest update may be the most accurate in tracking the death rate, but we will see how it does over the next few days. I would also point out that the growth in hospitalization rates is basically flat (graph of logarithmic plot is attached). I have just started tracking new daily cases, separating out Congregate and Non-Congregate cases as you can see from the attached graph. The growth rate of new daily cases is also basically flat, as you can see from the graph below.
IHME Model Comparison
New Daily Cases - Logarithmic plot showing flat day to day growth in cases
Hospitalizations - Logarithmic plot showing flat changes in the growth of hospitalizations
Stacked Bar for Congregate vs Non-Congregate Daily Deaths
Daviewolf83....doing the work for free that the paid folks here in this state refuse to do.
Thanks for doing this brother
You are much more forgiving for the Unknown Setting category WRT deaths than I am, Davie!
(Sidenote: Cuomo was called out about nursing homes today and basically said 'Not my problem, they are private entities'... ouch)
Next NC media briefing. Today at 3pm
https://www.ncdps.gov/storm-update
(Sidenote: Cuomo was called out about nursing homes today and basically said 'Not my problem, they are private entities'... ouch)
Next NC media briefing. Today at 3pm
https://www.ncdps.gov/storm-update
Compelling data, and to your point...this SHOULD be part of the daily dialog.Daviewolf83 said:
Over the past four days, Congregate deaths have averaged 14.3 deaths per day and Non-Congregate deaths per day have averaged 5.25 deaths per day. So on average, Congregate deaths per day are almost three times as many as Non-Congregate (general population) deaths. I agree the focus of the media should be on this factor and not the effect of the virus on the general NC population. I am not sure why this is not getting the focus it deserves.
I have added the latest IHME model data (4/21 version) to the model comparison chart and you can see the results below. The latest update may be the most accurate in tracking the death rate, but we will see how it does over the next few days. I would also point out that the growth in hospitalization rates is basically flat (graph of logarithmic plot is attached). I have just started tracking new daily cases, separating out Congregate and Non-Congregate cases as you can see from the attached graph. The growth rate of new daily cases is also basically flat, as you can see from the graph below.
Now, playing devils advocate for what this data means....it's easy to look at and say, shouldn't most of society be able to return to a normal life, with of course some newer safety considerations in place.
But...if we do that, and most of us are fine, or even if we contract the virus, go thru life pretty normally w/o symptoms......then go visit G-momma in the congregate facility, and it suddenly becomes a much more serious thing.
Clearly, we won't get to the point where we never allow family/friends to visit these facilities...so do you propose that screening before admission becomes a requirement? Something more stringent?
How do we keep the BAU lives for the rest of us from exacerbating an issue in the congregate environment?
I would hope screening in nursing homes is more stringent no matter how we decide to go with opening things up. I don't think that opening things up will increase that risk. Keeping things closed down just extends it longer that you can't see family in nursing homes. Precautions should be taken either way.
Well I assume opening things back up WILL drive more infections. So then visits to a nursing home could result in the spread.....IF the right precautions are not in place.packgrad said:
I would hope screening in nursing homes is more stringent no matter how we decide to go with opening things up. I don't think that opening things up will increase that risk. Keeping things closed down just extends it longer that you can't see family in nursing homes. Precautions should be taken either way.
So what type of "instant verification" screen is done to keep the grandkids and such, who have been out in restaurants and on beaches and at a gym, who are now visiting the facility?
No visitors of any kind. Might need to keep that policy in place indefinitely.
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