I would guess most testing done in NC today are to those seriously ill from the disease? FC still has this at the top of their county page and it recommends others not get tested.

I know a few people in the hard hit nursing home in Louisburg. They thought a lady I know well died the other day but it was her roommate that died.
[url=https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/71b809487afe4d7da3262b45ea8ef886/files/Health-Dept/COVID19-info-UPDATED-4-3-20.pdf][/url]
[url=https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/71b809487afe4d7da3262b45ea8ef886/files/Health-Dept/COVID19-info-UPDATED-4-3-20.pdf]https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/71b809487afe4d7da3262b45ea8ef886/files/Health-Dept/Press-Statement---COVID-19-EOC---Long-Term-Care-Facility-Reported-Case----4-18-2020.pdf[/url]

ciscopack said:

---

I would guess most testing done in NC today are to those seriously ill from the disease? FC still has this at the top of their county page and it recommends others not get tested.

I know a few people in the hard hit nursing home in Louisburg. They thought a lady I know well died the other day but it was her roommate that died.
[url=https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/71b809487afe4d7da3262b45ea8ef886/files/Health-Dept/COVID19-info-UPDATED-4-3-20.pdf][/url]
[url=https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/71b809487afe4d7da3262b45ea8ef886/files/Health-Dept/COVID19-info-UPDATED-4-3-20.pdf]https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/71b809487afe4d7da3262b45ea8ef886/files/Health-Dept/Press-Statement---COVID-19-EOC---Long-Term-Care-Facility-Reported-Case----4-18-2020.pdf[/url]

---

Given they are only testing outbreak scenarios and otherwise relatively seriously ill, an 8% positive rating is pretty good.

WRAL is already up to 206 (+2) deaths, DHHS is getting to be almost 30 behind. Will be interesting to see what the distribution is when they hit. WRAL no longer reports their updates (although 3 new deaths did come from Wake)

CLA327 said:

---

This is a fantastic interview conducted with Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, who led the covid testing in Santa Clara. He talks about the results of that testing, and current testing he is doing with Major League Baseball. Additionally, he talks about the actual prevalence of covid in the current population, the impracticability of contact tracing if the infection rate is as high as the testing revealed. He also has some very good ideas on restarting the economy based on what we now know about the virus.

Two very remarkable statements the Dr. makes is 1) that he believes based on the Santa Clara results the covid virus will have no higher mortality rate than the seasonal flu. And 2) there has been no federal money from either the stimulus package or grants allocated to fund any seriologic studies.

https://www.hoover.org/research/fight-against-covid-19-update-dr-jay-bhattacharya

---

That's exactly how it was looking in NY, NJ and New Orleans and the nursing home in Louisburg.....just like a seasonal flu with social distancing. We ain't in it alone; most of Russia, China, Italy, Spain, Germany, Japan, India, Hong Kong, South Africa S. Korea... shut down and did social distancing too. What's it been....just over 4 months past the first person with the disease in China and around 2 months in the US?

It reminds me of playing with fire. It's not the year 1100, it's 2020 and is spread throughout the world very easily.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/africa-coronavirus-cases-hit-10-million-months-200417055006127.html

USC study out of LA, similar to Stanford Santa Clara:

"The initial results from the first large-scale study tracking the spread of the coronavirus in the county found that 2.8% to 5.6% of adults have antibodies to the virus in their blood, an indication of past exposure.

That translates to roughly 221,000 to 442,000 adults who have recovered from an infection, according to the researchers conducting the study, even though the county had reported fewer than 8,000 cases at that time."

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county

http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

Georgia is reopening, starting this week.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-allow-some-shuttered-businesses-reopen-amid-pandemic/jKbtfWKHOvqMStwhPf9oFI/

About the same population as NC and over 3 times the deaths currently. They are moving forward while our state government is confused and stuck in groupthink.

Edit: Tennessee will expire at the end of the month as well. Opening their state parks this week.

https://www.wsmv.com/news/governor-stay-at-home-order-to-expire-april-30/article_f3e452ac-8340-11ea-bf6b-2bfd8a9bb156.html

https://www.tn.gov/governor/news/2020/4/20/gov--lee-announces-safer-at-home-order-will-expire-april-30--tennessee-begins-phased-reopening-next-week.html

Interesting how close those percentages are to the Santa Clara study Wayland

PossumJenkins said:

---

Interesting how close those percentages are to the Santa Clara study Wayland

---

Would love to know what some of the numbers are in the Northeast.

Wayland said:

---

Georgia is reopening, starting this week.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-allow-some-shuttered-businesses-reopen-amid-pandemic/jKbtfWKHOvqMStwhPf9oFI/

About the same population as NC and over 3 times the deaths currently. They are moving forward while our state government is confused and stuck in groupthink.

Edit: Tennessee will expire at the end of the month as well. Opening their state parks this week.

https://www.wsmv.com/news/governor-stay-at-home-order-to-expire-april-30/article_f3e452ac-8340-11ea-bf6b-2bfd8a9bb156.html

---

McMaster has announced partial reopenings in SC. Beaches can reopen "if they want to" -- being left up to the communities. I know IoP, Kiawah, Folly, etc had declared they were not going to reopen.

Also some stores, including furniture, clothing stores, department stores, sporting goods, and flea markets, etc.
With restrictions.

Glad to see the re-openings.

The solution and time frame for NY shouldn't be the same for every other state.

What happened in NYC was never going to happen here. Charlotte is the closest thing we have to a "real city" and yeah...it's worse there. And they might should do things a bit differently, but for other counties?

We shouldn't be shut down as long.

I think we're also eventually going to find that this virus has been here much longer than first thought, and that most everyone has already been exposed to it and their body just dealt with it and got over it. Or in the case of the ones that didn't, it got listed as "flu" in cause of death, pre-Covid.

But the point is, this isn't a "one size fits all" solution to be applied everywhere.

Wayland said:

---

Georgia is reopening, starting this week.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-allow-some-shuttered-businesses-reopen-amid-pandemic/jKbtfWKHOvqMStwhPf9oFI/

About the same population as NC and over 3 times the deaths currently. They are moving forward while our state government is confused and stuck in groupthink.

Edit: Tennessee will expire at the end of the month as well. Opening their state parks this week.

https://www.wsmv.com/news/governor-stay-at-home-order-to-expire-april-30/article_f3e452ac-8340-11ea-bf6b-2bfd8a9bb156.html

https://www.tn.gov/governor/news/2020/4/20/gov--lee-announces-safer-at-home-order-will-expire-april-30--tennessee-begins-phased-reopening-next-week.html

---

So 1/3 of the deaths means our state government isn't doing a good job now?

..

Ground_Chuck said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Georgia is reopening, starting this week.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-allow-some-shuttered-businesses-reopen-amid-pandemic/jKbtfWKHOvqMStwhPf9oFI/

About the same population as NC and over 3 times the deaths currently. They are moving forward while our state government is confused and stuck in groupthink.

Edit: Tennessee will expire at the end of the month as well. Opening their state parks this week.

https://www.wsmv.com/news/governor-stay-at-home-order-to-expire-april-30/article_f3e452ac-8340-11ea-bf6b-2bfd8a9bb156.html

https://www.tn.gov/governor/news/2020/4/20/gov--lee-announces-safer-at-home-order-will-expire-april-30--tennessee-begins-phased-reopening-next-week.html

---

So 1/3 of the deaths means our state government isn't doing a good job now?

---

I think deaths have more to do with penetration into congregate facilities, population density, socioeconomic issues with health and access to healthcare, and dumb luck. The state government had nothing to do with people dying or not dying. Everybody shut down about the same time. And I still think they dropped the ball on congregate facilities and have done jack all with regards to surveillance and sampling (what I said they should be doing 4-5 weeks ago).

Despite all their mismanagement, NC is doing alright. Just "shutting it all down" is not effective governance. There has never been a coherent plan stated at any point by state officials. And my issue isn't just with state government, I think the federal government has failed at almost every level. Both have been reactive this whole time and not able to think ahead of the pandemic.

^Has there been a "coherent" plan by the state officials anywhere in the country?

This is an unprecedented situation. "Flying by the seat of their pants" is what everyone is doing.

If anyone knows someone that can speak Korean, we can order some tests from S. Korea. Also, we could up the salary of people willing to take meat processing jobs so everyone can be fed.

Mexico and Canada are saying....keep your butt in the US!

Needed - tests, gloves, masks, shields, suits and distancing by the billions

Even though cases are trending downward, the ole big brain team in Mecklenburg county is at it again now stating with their plug and play model the peak will be June 27th.

Whats the point of increasing testing if you don't bother to use the actual data from the testing you've done previously? Why let facts drive the decision when we have this fancy model we get to stick new numbers in every day?

PossumJenkins said:

---

Even though cases are trending downward, the ole big brain team in Mecklenburg county is at it again now stating with their plug and play model the peak will be June 27th.

Whats the point of increasing testing if you don't bother to use the actual data from the testing you've done previously? Why let facts drive the decision when we have this fancy model we get to stick new numbers in every day?

---

Why won't anyone call them out for using a faulty model? Or at least a model that is easily manipulated by tweaking the social distance input? That model was never meant to drive policy and all but says it on the top of their webpage.

I swear last time they ran their model, they ran something like 45%, 55%, 65% social distancing or something and now they are running 30%, 45%, 60% (almost like they want the longer curves).

Either way, this model is crap and THEY NEED TO BE CALLED OUT. It hasn't even been updated in 2 weeks.

PossumJenkins said:

---

Even though cases are trending downward, the ole big brain team in Mecklenburg county is at it again now stating with their plug and play model the peak will be June 27th.

Whats the point of increasing testing if you don't bother to use the actual data from the testing you've done previously? Why let facts drive the decision when we have this fancy model we get to stick new numbers in every day?

---

They can stay locked up, but I suspect most of NC will have opened up most businesses by late June. I doubt they will be able to stay closed when that happens. They really need to separate Congregate and Non-Congregate in their analysis, since Congregate is likely skewing the model. We should be able to tell more by the end of this weekend, but I suspect NC has peaked with regards to new daily cases for the Non-Congregate population (ie., anyone who is not in a nursing home or long-term care facility).

Absolutely agree with both of you. It's just so frustrating watching. The lack of leadership that has been exposed across multiple levels of government throughout this pandemic is scary.

I have two friends who are former professional athletes who own a leaderhship/mentoring/team building program. We've talked about the erosion of leadership on various levels in this country for a few years now...but still watching it be exposed in so many ways during this crisis has been disheartening.

I have started to e-mail various media people about the Mecklenburg graphs because I really do believe it is dangerous to use a website that you don't understand any of the modelling assumptions and you can plug anything in, to drive policy.

https://www.mecknc.gov/news/Pages/Mecklenburg-County-COVID-19-Projection-Model-FAQs.aspx

Why do they include an IHME link to model FAQ when they are using UPenn CHIME?

Got a response from a TV station in Charlotte

"All models are 1) only as good as the underlying data and 2) designed around a assumptions built in by those building the projections. The county has been clear about this. Yesterday, they released details on the assumptions used to run specific projections for Mecklenburg county, which is hugely helpful. Data on the virus remains limited because testing remains limited. The county addressed this in their model FAQ yesterday. "

Look at the FAQ yourself (which links assumptions to a different model than they use) and see if it answers all your questions. And then go to CHIME and manipulate the numbers. https://penn-chime.phl.io/ Good government, and the media too dumb to understand.

Wayland said:

---

I have started to e-mail various media people about the Mecklenburg graphs because I really do believe it is dangerous to use a website that you don't understand any of the modelling assumptions and you can plug anything in, to drive policy.

https://www.mecknc.gov/news/Pages/Mecklenburg-County-COVID-19-Projection-Model-FAQs.aspx

Why do they include an IHME link to model FAQ when they are using UPenn CHIME?

---

I e-mailed one of the Observer reporters that has been posting most of the COVID related stories,
Alison Kuznitz (akuznitz@charlotteobserver.com), no response so far though. Specifically asked when any reporters will ask the county who is putting the inputs into the model, what training they've had, how it's being peer reviewed for accuracy, and why they're using a model that specifically cautions against using it for long-term planning.

statefan91 said:

---

Wayland said:

---

I have started to e-mail various media people about the Mecklenburg graphs because I really do believe it is dangerous to use a website that you don't understand any of the modelling assumptions and you can plug anything in, to drive policy.

https://www.mecknc.gov/news/Pages/Mecklenburg-County-COVID-19-Projection-Model-FAQs.aspx

Why do they include an IHME link to model FAQ when they are using UPenn CHIME?

---

I e-mailed one of the Observer reporters that has been posting most of the COVID related stories,
Alison Kuznitz (akuznitz@charlotteobserver.com), no response so far though. Specifically asked when any reporters will ask the county who is putting the inputs into the model, what training they've had, how it's being peer reviewed for accuracy, and why they're using a model that specifically cautions against using it for long-term planning.

---

At least they should be challenged, that if they are using the UPenn CHIME that they are in close contact with the website's creators and working with them to create their models. And not just plugging numbers into a website.

But I doubt for one second that anyone has even made a call to UPenn for help.

I just wonder who is advising the policy makers on the city/county level when it comes to these decisions, because frankly, the thought of them trying to understand and interpret this data is kinda scary. I know the mayor here where I live, and he's a nice enough guy, but he's not the sharpest knife in the drawer, and I can say the same thing for some of the city and county commissioners I know also. I suspect that they are at the mercy of whatever their health departments are telling them.

Wayland said:

---

statefan91 said:

---

Wayland said:

---

I have started to e-mail various media people about the Mecklenburg graphs because I really do believe it is dangerous to use a website that you don't understand any of the modelling assumptions and you can plug anything in, to drive policy.

https://www.mecknc.gov/news/Pages/Mecklenburg-County-COVID-19-Projection-Model-FAQs.aspx

Why do they include an IHME link to model FAQ when they are using UPenn CHIME?

---

I e-mailed one of the Observer reporters that has been posting most of the COVID related stories,
Alison Kuznitz (akuznitz@charlotteobserver.com), no response so far though. Specifically asked when any reporters will ask the county who is putting the inputs into the model, what training they've had, how it's being peer reviewed for accuracy, and why they're using a model that specifically cautions against using it for long-term planning.

---

At least they should be challenged, that if they are using the UPenn CHIME that they are in close contact with the website's creators and working with them to create their models. And not just plugging numbers into a website.

But I doubt for one second that anyone has even made a call to UPenn for help.

---

I thought a section of Note 2 in the FAQ for the Mecklenburg Couty model is interesting. It states:

"Commonly cited models prepared for the U.S. and each state by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, differ from the CHIME model in that it relies on information about COVID-related deaths instead of incidence, to project future demand. This provides a more conservative estimate and appears to be tracking well with some states."

I would argue that given the limited testing, deaths are actually a better measure than cases, so the the IHME model has this advantage. Additionally, NC's total deaths has consistently tracked below the IHME forecast (until the most recent update), so the fact it is conservative and NC is tracking below it is telling. NC is tracking below a conservative model, making the more aggressive models appear even worse (ie., the Mecklenburg County model).

Another point they make in Note 4 is the following:

"Because we do not yet have broad testing capabilities (e.g. testing for everyone regardless of risk), our case counts are underestimates of the true burden of disease and these projections are limited by our testing capabilities."

The issue here is the fact you do not have to test everyone. You only need to test a sample. You have to test enough to find 10% infected. If you are finding 1-2% infected in your sample size, you are over-sampling and if you are finding 20-30% infected, you are likely under-sampling. Right now, in NC we are finding 9% positive in the sample size (testing only people with symptoms). So I agree sample size needs to increase, perhaps even double as Dr. Cohen suggests. You definitely do not need to test everyone or close to everyone.

PossumJenkins said:

---

Even though cases are trending downward, the ole big brain team in Mecklenburg county is at it again now stating with their plug and play model the peak will be June 27th.

Whats the point of increasing testing if you don't bother to use the actual data from the testing you've done previously? Why let facts drive the decision when we have this fancy model we get to stick new numbers in every day?

---

I saw that last night and nearly fell out of my chair. June 27th. With thousands of people in the hospital.
What are they seeing that no one else is?

I just can't believe the media sits there in those meetings and doesn't rip them for these #s....because either they are way wrong, or the rest of the state/country are wrong? But I had the impression the majority of the recent cases in Meck and surrounding counties were driven by nursing homes? And that while tragic....shouldn't be in the forecast model for how to get back to work? Does anyone ask them that, I wonder?

Packchem91 said:

---

PossumJenkins said:

---

Even though cases are trending downward, the ole big brain team in Mecklenburg county is at it again now stating with their plug and play model the peak will be June 27th.

Whats the point of increasing testing if you don't bother to use the actual data from the testing you've done previously? Why let facts drive the decision when we have this fancy model we get to stick new numbers in every day?

---

I saw that last night and nearly fell out of my chair. June 27th. With thousands of people in the hospital.
What are they seeing that no one else is?

I just can't believe the media sits there in those meetings and doesn't rip them for these #s....because either they are way wrong, or the rest of the state/country are wrong? But I had the impression the majority of the recent cases in Meck and surrounding counties were driven by nursing homes? And that while tragic....shouldn't be in the forecast model for how to get back to work? Does anyone ask them that, I wonder?

---

From their FAQ:

"On April 13, there were approximately 90 patients hospitalized in acute care facilities in Mecklenburg County about 1 in 4 were ventilated."

So about 22 people on vents. 90 hospitalized. I guess let's get that field hospital built. .....

Packchem91 said:

---

PossumJenkins said:

---

Even though cases are trending downward, the ole big brain team in Mecklenburg county is at it again now stating with their plug and play model the peak will be June 27th.

Whats the point of increasing testing if you don't bother to use the actual data from the testing you've done previously? Why let facts drive the decision when we have this fancy model we get to stick new numbers in every day?

---

I saw that last night and nearly fell out of my chair. June 27th. With thousands of people in the hospital.
What are they seeing that no one else is?

I just can't believe the media sits there in those meetings and doesn't rip them for these #s....because either they are way wrong, or the rest of the state/country are wrong? But I had the impression the majority of the recent cases in Meck and surrounding counties were driven by nursing homes? And that while tragic....shouldn't be in the forecast model for how to get back to work? Does anyone ask them that, I wonder?

---

Unfortunately the media only seem to challenge the politicians they agree with politically. It really does a disservice to all of us

Funny. One of the fixes out for the UPenn CHIME model is that it shouldn't be used to predict beyond 30 days out.

Not that anyone is still working on it. It looks almost like they have left it to die.

So looking at the projections that Meck is using, I don't understand why they aren't building the field hospital they had previously talked about or why Novant and Atrium have said they don't foresee needing it at this current point.

The site says Meck has 283 critical care (ICU) beds.

Their model projects a peak of 1,143 if the peak is in late June. So no matter what the peak looks like you have a shortage so shouldn't they be building these beds? Or are they just full of it?

Yikes. NandO up to 224 this morning. Lot's of death somewhere in the state. Now ahead of DHHS. The numbers still don't align with hospitalizations, so this is either backlog or congregate. I wish we would get a clearer picture.

cowboypack02 said:

---

Packchem91 said:

---

PossumJenkins said:

---

Even though cases are trending downward, the ole big brain team in Mecklenburg county is at it again now stating with their plug and play model the peak will be June 27th.

Whats the point of increasing testing if you don't bother to use the actual data from the testing you've done previously? Why let facts drive the decision when we have this fancy model we get to stick new numbers in every day?

---

I saw that last night and nearly fell out of my chair. June 27th. With thousands of people in the hospital.
What are they seeing that no one else is?

I just can't believe the media sits there in those meetings and doesn't rip them for these #s....because either they are way wrong, or the rest of the state/country are wrong? But I had the impression the majority of the recent cases in Meck and surrounding counties were driven by nursing homes? And that while tragic....shouldn't be in the forecast model for how to get back to work? Does anyone ask them that, I wonder?

---

Unfortunately the media only seem to challenge the politicians they agree with politically. It really does a disservice to all of us

---

it surely feels that way at times, huh? But these people can't be that much of dolts can they...I mean, they are as impacted as the rest of us, seems like just a human reaction to doubt those #s when no other agency is talking that long out (and the county just about 10 miles down the road across the border is actually beginning to open up)

statefan91 said:

---

So looking at the projections that Meck is using, I don't understand why they aren't building the field hospital they had previously talked about or why Novant and Atrium have said they don't foresee needing it at this current point.

The site says Meck has 283 critical care (ICU) beds.

Their model projects a peak of 1,143 if the peak is in late June. So no matter what the peak looks like you have a shortage so shouldn't they be building these beds? Or are they just full of it?

---

Thank you -- I wondered the same when I read the hospital #s, and even wondered if I just read it wrong - if you looked at their #s, it seemed to convey a scary shortage of hospital availability -- something that, given the current situation, should throw up even more red flags to doubt the data

When the government is counting COVID19 deaths for anyone who may have possibly been exposed to it or had it, i am unable to believe any numbers or information they release. For me, the beginning of last week was when I threw my hands up. They decided it was ok to count someone who died with or without COVID19 but possibly by COVID19 as a death. That was the end of it for me. I hope the protest continue and people just say screw you to their government. This entire virus has been a cluster from the beginning and here were are, 3 months in and the majority of government officials still have their heads stuck in their asses.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

---

When the government is counting COVID19 deaths for anyone who may have possibly been exposed to it or had it, i am unable to believe any numbers or information they release. For me, the beginning of last week was when I threw my hands up. They decided it was ok to count someone who died with or without COVID19 but possibly by COVID19 as a death. That was the end of it for me. I hope the protest continue and people just say screw you to their government. This entire virus has been a cluster from the beginning and here were are, 3 months in and the majority of government officials still have their heads stuck in their asses.

---

I made a comment to that effect recently. Given the penetration into congregate facilities and the widespread nature, we are now going to be getting deaths of people 'with covid-19' in addition to 'from covid-19'. These are high risk populations with a higher death rate than general population anyways.

But it is what it is. Probably 250-300 NC residents die on any given day.