Appears that their is somewhat of a plan in place at this point. Still not sure how much sense it makes overall but at least it is a start. Will be interesting see how the markets react as well as how some of the state leaders react to all of this.
Coronavirus
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I like the plan and it seems to be a very reasonable approach. I just hope the NC governor follows it and does not make up his own plan. There are actually counties in NC that could go to Phase 1 tomorrow and Phase 2 and Phase 3 in a few weeks. For example, the county I grew up in (Davie County) is listed as having 23 Covid cases, but I saw today that they only have 1 active case. Two people passed away and the rest of the cases have all successfully resolved. If they have no new cases in a couple of weeks, they could move to another phase, but not clear if counties will be able to move on their own.RunsWithWolves26 said:
Appears that their is somewhat of a plan in place at this point. Still not sure how much sense it makes overall but at least it is a start. Will be interesting see how the markets react as well as how some of the state leaders react to all of this.
Based on the plan and current trends, I think it will be mid-May before we can move to Phase 1. If trends continue after this, I would think by early June, we could move to Phase 2 and by July we could be at Phase 3. The key is to get to Phase 3 by early to mid-July.
RunsWithWolves26 said:
Appears that their is somewhat of a plan in place at this point. Still not sure how much sense it makes overall but at least it is a start. Will be interesting see how the markets react as well as how some of the state leaders react to all of this.
I missed this, do you have a link?
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Here's the link to the guidelines:statefan91 said:RunsWithWolves26 said:
Appears that their is somewhat of a plan in place at this point. Still not sure how much sense it makes overall but at least it is a start. Will be interesting see how the markets react as well as how some of the state leaders react to all of this.
I missed this, do you have a link?
Opening Up America Again
Three phases. To move to Phase 1, we have to have decreasing cases for 14 days and some other things must also decrease. There are also testing guidelines and Dr. Birx outlined today how that should happen. Will use the system used for tracking and alerting the healthcare system for the flu. It will be used for surveillance testing.
How do you get decreased test results if you're continually ramping up testing? Not sure I understand how that's possible if you're constantly expanding the denominator
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Reduction in the percentage of people testing positive. Eventually, you should start to find fewer infected people and when you do this, it will indicate the penetration of the virus is decreasing. Currently, we are seeing 8% of people being tested as positive and part of this is due to the fact we are only testing people who are symptomatic. If you also test people who do not say they are symptomatic, you will get a better view of penetration rates, since you will find people who are asymptomatic and people who are clear of the virus.statefan91 said:
How do you get decreased test results if you're continually ramping up testing? Not sure I understand how that's possible if you're constantly expanding the denominator
That is the thing. You need to expand testing. If you only test seriously ill with symptoms, your positive test rate is going to be really skewed.Daviewolf83 said:Reduction in the percentage of people testing positive. Eventually, you should start to find fewer infected people and when you do this, it will indicate the penetration of the virus is decreasing. Currently, we are seeing 8% of people being tested as positive and part of this is due to the fact we are only testing people who are symptomatic. If you also test people who do not say they are symptomatic, you will get a better view of penetration rates, since you will find people who are asymptomatic and people who are clear of the virus.statefan91 said:
How do you get decreased test results if you're continually ramping up testing? Not sure I understand how that's possible if you're constantly expanding the denominator
Add that into linear over time and it is hard. Hopefully some of the admission and hospital indicators are better than the generic data that is released for the masses to consume.
Being a local elected official in Wake County , the measures that the County has imposed so far have made an impact. The County has involved all of the local towns and cities in the process. The order released today by Wake County was sent to our Council by our Mayor two days ago for feedback. I will Wake County credit for involving everyone....with 12 municipalities in our County, everyone has to be on board for these to be effective.
I will tell you this. Before the first order was announced, the County asked to hear from all Wake County elected officials. I was in on a conference call, just two at a time with our Mayor. I will not list everything that was initially put up for consideration in any stay at home and restrictive order, but some of the suggestions were so extreme that they were ridiculous. It got to the point that I asked our Manager and our Mayor if they planned to purchase some white lab coats and arm themselves with thermometers and stethoscopes at the front door of Town Hall and the Police Station and all of the retail businesses that were allowed to stay open. Just read between the lines. Some folks wanted people who are not medical professionals to gauge the physical condition of citizens in the towns, cities, and the County as these citizens were out and about.
Because of our dense population in some parts of the County, and with a major airport and interstate highways in our area, it would not surprise me to see the order get extended in Wake County to at least mid May. Other more rural counties should see even more relaxing of the rules and conditions very soon. Public schools and colleges and universities are another thing entirely. As are athletic events and ball games. Who knows what July 4th celebrations will look like this year.
around our State and the Country. Might not even have them in some places.
Y'all stay safe out there, wherever you may live and work.
I will tell you this. Before the first order was announced, the County asked to hear from all Wake County elected officials. I was in on a conference call, just two at a time with our Mayor. I will not list everything that was initially put up for consideration in any stay at home and restrictive order, but some of the suggestions were so extreme that they were ridiculous. It got to the point that I asked our Manager and our Mayor if they planned to purchase some white lab coats and arm themselves with thermometers and stethoscopes at the front door of Town Hall and the Police Station and all of the retail businesses that were allowed to stay open. Just read between the lines. Some folks wanted people who are not medical professionals to gauge the physical condition of citizens in the towns, cities, and the County as these citizens were out and about.
Because of our dense population in some parts of the County, and with a major airport and interstate highways in our area, it would not surprise me to see the order get extended in Wake County to at least mid May. Other more rural counties should see even more relaxing of the rules and conditions very soon. Public schools and colleges and universities are another thing entirely. As are athletic events and ball games. Who knows what July 4th celebrations will look like this year.
around our State and the Country. Might not even have them in some places.
Y'all stay safe out there, wherever you may live and work.
I appreciate the insight and it must be tough to balance so many personalities.Tootie4Pack said:
Being a local elected official in Wake County , the measures that the County has imposed so far have made an impact. The County has involved all of the local towns and cities in the process. The order released today by Wake County was sent to our Council by our Mayor two days ago for feedback. I will Wake County credit for involving everyone....with 12 municipalities in our County, everyone has to be on board for these to be effective.
I will tell you this. Before the first order was announced, the County asked to hear from all Wake County elected officials. I was in on a conference call, just two at a time with our Mayor. I will not list everything that was initially put up for consideration in any stay at home and restrictive order, but some of the suggestions were so extreme that they were ridiculous. It got to the point that I asked our Manager and our Mayor if they planned to purchase some white lab coats and arm themselves with thermometers and stethoscopes at the front door of Town Hall and the Police Station and all of the retail businesses that were allowed to stay open. Just read between the lines. Some folks wanted people who are not medical professionals to gauge the physical condition of citizens in the towns, cities, and the County as these citizens were out and about.
Because of our dense population in some parts of the County, and with a major airport and interstate highways in our area, it would not surprise me to see the order get extended in Wake County to at least mid May. Other more rural counties should see even more relaxing of the rules and conditions very soon. Public schools and colleges and universities are another thing entirely. As are athletic events and ball games. Who knows what July 4th celebrations will look like this year.
around our State and the Country. Might not even have them in some places.
Y'all stay safe out there, wherever you may live and work.
In reviewing the agenda of the April 7th Raleigh City Council Meetings COVID slides, I was amazed at how far off they were on their assumptions. Reviewing the meeting on that day I thought the doubling rate was closer to 8 days and they thought at the time they were in a 3-4 day doubling rate for Wake County (again testing is crap). But still using current positive test cases per day Wake County is at a 14+day doubling rate (even with a couple nursing home outbreaks).
Their projected cases (for April 15) for even a 7 day doubling was 1300 cases, 200 hospitalized, and 60 critical. And look how far off their projections were. Actual was 549 (I don't have local hospitalization utilization).
Their assessment was that Wake would be between 2400 and 17000 cases with up to 2500 hospitalizations. Is this all social distancing or is there larger data/modelling issues... both?
https://go.boarddocs.com/nc/raleigh/Board.nsf/files/BNFMCV5AA61E/$file/20200407COVID-19PublicHealthCrisisSituationUpdatePresentation.pdf
This was a week ago. I feel like these civic leaders lag behind on the data they use in projections when we more than doubled their most optimistic doubling rate in terms of slowing the spread. Their is no recollection that even a week ago they had things apocalyptic.
I hope Wake County leaders can take a more honest look at the data and not let fear or politics drive decisions. It is a tough balancing act, but they mine as well open parks back up completely (because they are full despite some taped off playground structures).
I don't think Wake County needs to extend, and should be looking at Phase 1 and moving forward May 1.
Daviewolf83 said:I like the plan and it seems to be a very reasonable approach. I just hope the NC governor follows it and does not make up his own plan. There are actually counties in NC that could go to Phase 1 tomorrow and Phase 2 and Phase 3 in a few weeks. For example, the county I grew up in (Davie County) is listed as having 23 Covid cases, but I saw today that they only have 1 active case. Two people passed away and the rest of the cases have all successfully resolved. If they have no new cases in a couple of weeks, they could move to another phase, but not clear if counties will be able to move on their own.RunsWithWolves26 said:
Appears that their is somewhat of a plan in place at this point. Still not sure how much sense it makes overall but at least it is a start. Will be interesting see how the markets react as well as how some of the state leaders react to all of this.
Based on the plan and current trends, I think it will be mid-May before we can move to Phase 1. If trends continue after this, I would think by early June, we could move to Phase 2 and by July we could be at Phase 3. The key is to get to Phase 3 by early to mid-July.
If it is mid July before even half the states are opened back up completely, they will open back up to nothing. And if NC is opened back up by mid July, the harder hit states wouldn't be open until late September at the best. Again, I get what they are saying and trying to do but the edge of the cliff is close and that timeline puts this economy over the edge.
RunsWithWolves26 said:Daviewolf83 said:I like the plan and it seems to be a very reasonable approach. I just hope the NC governor follows it and does not make up his own plan. There are actually counties in NC that could go to Phase 1 tomorrow and Phase 2 and Phase 3 in a few weeks. For example, the county I grew up in (Davie County) is listed as having 23 Covid cases, but I saw today that they only have 1 active case. Two people passed away and the rest of the cases have all successfully resolved. If they have no new cases in a couple of weeks, they could move to another phase, but not clear if counties will be able to move on their own.RunsWithWolves26 said:
Appears that their is somewhat of a plan in place at this point. Still not sure how much sense it makes overall but at least it is a start. Will be interesting see how the markets react as well as how some of the state leaders react to all of this.
Based on the plan and current trends, I think it will be mid-May before we can move to Phase 1. If trends continue after this, I would think by early June, we could move to Phase 2 and by July we could be at Phase 3. The key is to get to Phase 3 by early to mid-July.
If it is mid July before even half the states are opened back up completely, they will open back up to nothing. And if NC is opened back up by mid July, the harder hit states wouldn't be open until late September at the best. Again, I get what they are saying and trying to do but the edge of the cliff is close and that timeline puts this economy over the edge.
Every county save about 10-15 (mostly the metros) should be in Phase 1 tomorrow (if we could actually test worth a damn) aiming for an early May Phase 2, but we won't because government has been dragging their heels and are finally getting around to things they needed to do (and were discussed here) weeks ago.
DC prob wants the Economy to break so they can act like our saviors as elections draw closer, but that's just the pessimistic side of me talking,
Optimistic side of me is that a good chunk of these unemployed go pull a Hong Kong in DC and try to get some actual changes for the working class
Realistically nothing will happen
Optimistic side of me is that a good chunk of these unemployed go pull a Hong Kong in DC and try to get some actual changes for the working class
Realistically nothing will happen
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-remdesivir-trial/index.html
This looks promising. Remdesivir having some good early results.
This looks promising. Remdesivir having some good early results.
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I agree that many counties that are not badly affected will begin opening up soon with the Phase 1 restrictions. The state of NC has to be pressured into doing more surveillance testing and get out of the mode of only testing people with symptoms. This is the only way you will see a drop in the percentage of positive cases and it is the only way you will know the penetration levels.
People in Wake and other counties will not stay locked up until July when they see other counties opening back up and other states like South Carolina opening up. The citizens of the county will not put up with extended lock-downs when they know there is a way out. North Carolina better get there butts in gear and get the testing increased. Dr. Birx mentioned tonight that there is excess capacity now in the private labs to increase testing by a million tests a week. Her expectation is that the states will use this capacity.
People in Wake and other counties will not stay locked up until July when they see other counties opening back up and other states like South Carolina opening up. The citizens of the county will not put up with extended lock-downs when they know there is a way out. North Carolina better get there butts in gear and get the testing increased. Dr. Birx mentioned tonight that there is excess capacity now in the private labs to increase testing by a million tests a week. Her expectation is that the states will use this capacity.
Some disappointing results on a Hydroxychloroquine trial.
https://reason.com/2020/04/16/hydroxychloroquine-trial-for-treating-covid-19-disappoints/
https://reason.com/2020/04/16/hydroxychloroquine-trial-for-treating-covid-19-disappoints/
^ Why would we believe anything coming out of China regarding Corona virus?
I tend to think that since it's being used across the world there is some success to it. I expect all articles about it to lament side effects, or cases it doesn't work, because Trump.
To that point, they just increased the death total in Wuham by 50% to 3,869, which even that number I find hard to believe. That's a population dense city of 11 million people, with people working and living in very close quarters in the manufacturing plants, and it is the accepted location as the source of this outbreak. Would any of us be surprised if that number was 10 times more? The one thing China has going for them in stopping the spread is that when they lock things down, they can really lock things down, but I still don't believe that the virus is hitting NYC worse than Wuhan.
4/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/14/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/13/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)Wayland said:4/12/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)Wayland said:4/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:38am)Wayland said:4/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)Wayland said:Wayland said:4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc
3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157
4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204
4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184
4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)
NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259
Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.
15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)
2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.
NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271
Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?
Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.
NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261
Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age
4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270
NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354
Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.
The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.
NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987
NC Cases*
3651
NC Deaths**
65
Currently Hospitalized
398
Completed Tests
47809
Looks like deaths now align with media totals for the morning. 82% of deaths > 65
16 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care Facilities, 4 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.
NC Cases*
3908
NC Deaths**
74
Currently Hospitalized
423
Completed Tests
57645
A 2.5% positive test rate is insanely low.
23 Nursing Homes, 6 Residential Care Facilities, 5 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.
7 Additional nursing home since YESTERDAY (and 2 additional residential care). Just goes to show you how ineffective this has all been when we aren't actually protecting the most vulnerable. Time for a shift in strategy.
NC Cases*
4312
NC Deaths**
80
Currently Hospitalized
362
Completed Tests
60393
Hospitalizations down.
Media reporting 84 deaths (so still a gap in reporting there)
2 more Nursing Homes 1 more Residential to add to outbreaks.
NC Cases*
4520
NC Deaths**
81
Currently Hospitalized
331
Completed Tests
62139
NC Cases*
4816
NC Deaths**
86
Currently Hospitalized
313
Completed Tests
63,388
NC Cases*
5024
NC Deaths**
108
Currently Hospitalized
418
Completed Tests
65039
Now up to 30 nursing home outbreaks, 9 residential care, 6 correctional, and 1 other. Continues to explode here.
NC Cases*
5123
NC Deaths**
117
Currently Hospitalized
431
Completed Tests
67827
NC Cases*
5465
NC Deaths**
131
Currently Hospitalized
452 (88% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
70917
Interesting the >65 death rate seems to have spiked. It was around 80% for a long time, and is now at 84%
NC Cases*
5859
NC Deaths**
152
Currently Hospitalized
429 (87% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
72981
Will be interesting to see this report next week.
https://files.nc.gov/ncdhhs/documents/files/covid-19/Weekly-COVID19-Surveillance.pdf
Wake County has reported 9 additional cases day over day (I wonder if DHHS is lagging in their web updating). Where are those 400 new cases?
I'll say it every day .... I really want the congregate/non-congregate death breakdown.
Found them... 140 new cases in Wayne County. The prison outbreak.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
"Abstract
Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County. Methods On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay. Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics. We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer's data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both. Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections."
Confirmed cases in Santa Clara is currently 1833 with 69 deaths. Puts the fatality rate in direct line with the flu.
"Abstract
Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County. Methods On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay. Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics. We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer's data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both. Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections."
Confirmed cases in Santa Clara is currently 1833 with 69 deaths. Puts the fatality rate in direct line with the flu.
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I can not find the long-term care facility map any longer on WRAL. It has been removed and it appears no one else is tracking it. So our only hope is for the state to break out these numbers. Also, the state needs to be doing a better job of reporting the number of active cases.Wayland said:4/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/14/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/13/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)Wayland said:4/12/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)Wayland said:4/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:38am)Wayland said:4/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)Wayland said:Wayland said:4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc
3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157
4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204
4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184
4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)
NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259
Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.
15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)
2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.
NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271
Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?
Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.
NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261
Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age
4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270
NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354
Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.
The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.
NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987
NC Cases*
3651
NC Deaths**
65
Currently Hospitalized
398
Completed Tests
47809
Looks like deaths now align with media totals for the morning. 82% of deaths > 65
16 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care Facilities, 4 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.
NC Cases*
3908
NC Deaths**
74
Currently Hospitalized
423
Completed Tests
57645
A 2.5% positive test rate is insanely low.
23 Nursing Homes, 6 Residential Care Facilities, 5 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.
7 Additional nursing home since YESTERDAY (and 2 additional residential care). Just goes to show you how ineffective this has all been when we aren't actually protecting the most vulnerable. Time for a shift in strategy.
NC Cases*
4312
NC Deaths**
80
Currently Hospitalized
362
Completed Tests
60393
Hospitalizations down.
Media reporting 84 deaths (so still a gap in reporting there)
2 more Nursing Homes 1 more Residential to add to outbreaks.
NC Cases*
4520
NC Deaths**
81
Currently Hospitalized
331
Completed Tests
62139
NC Cases*
4816
NC Deaths**
86
Currently Hospitalized
313
Completed Tests
63,388
NC Cases*
5024
NC Deaths**
108
Currently Hospitalized
418
Completed Tests
65039
Now up to 30 nursing home outbreaks, 9 residential care, 6 correctional, and 1 other. Continues to explode here.
NC Cases*
5123
NC Deaths**
117
Currently Hospitalized
431
Completed Tests
67827
NC Cases*
5465
NC Deaths**
131
Currently Hospitalized
452 (88% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
70917
Interesting the >65 death rate seems to have spiked. It was around 80% for a long time, and is now at 84%
NC Cases*
5859
NC Deaths**
152
Currently Hospitalized
429 (87% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
72981
Will be interesting to see this report next week.
https://files.nc.gov/ncdhhs/documents/files/covid-19/Weekly-COVID19-Surveillance.pdf
Wake County has reported 9 additional cases day over day (I wonder if DHHS is lagging in their web updating). Where are those 400 new cases?
I'll say it every day .... I really want the congregate/non-congregate death breakdown.
Found them... 140 new cases in Wayne County. The prison outbreak.
I know many of the county health departments are tracking this info, so not sure why the state is not. For example, the county I grew up in (Davie County) only reports 1 active case and it is in a long-term care facility. Two people passed away and the remaining 20 cases have successfully resolved. Of course, the state of NC still shows this county as having 23 cases. This is why I am now correcting people when they say NC has over 5,000 cases. This is the cumulative total of known cases, but it is not the total number of currently active cases.
I am going to start tracking the estimated number of active cases and separating out the number of resolved cases. If you assume the majority of cases resolve in 14 days, the total number of active cases in NC is now 3,766 cases. The number of resolved cases is estimated to be 2,244 cases (deaths+likely no longer infected cases). These numbers are not exact, since I can not absolutely know if all resolved in 14 days, but you can also assume the number of active is slightly off due to reporting delays and people who resolved faster than 14 days (this is also possible).
It does appear hospitalizations are now flat, but cases are increasing slightly. This is most likely due to the increasing numbers in long-term care facilities. The percent testing positive is still 8%, so it appears the penetration rate is not changing (to the best you can judge it given the lack of daily testing). Over the past seven days, NC has only averaged 2,200 tests per day and this is just not going to be adequate to get us out of lock-down. I know Governor Cooper has announced plans for increased testing and contract tracking, but he and his administration has provided no specifics and no dates.
Looks like IHME didn't update yesterday like they reported they would. Wonder what caused that delay. Noticed today is parts of the country, people have continued to protest. I think it is safe to say people have run out of patients with this situation and the government response from all parties at all levels. I get the feeling by next week this time, you will see yet another change in the get America back again or whatever the hell they are calling it. Don't think it moved the needle for a lot of people the way they hoped it would.
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I went back and read their notes early this morning. They were not planning on updating the US model. They are updating to add some additional countries and update data for models outside of the US. I does appear they did not update the public models and right now, it is hard to say when they will update the US model based on their update.RunsWithWolves26 said:
Looks like IHME didn't update yesterday like they reported they would. Wonder what caused that delay. Noticed today is parts of the country, people have continued to protest. I think it is safe to say people have run out of patients with this situation and the government response from all parties at all levels. I get the feeling by next week this time, you will see yet another change in the get America back again or whatever the hell they are calling it. Don't think it moved the needle for a lot of people the way they hoped it would.
To get out of the lock-down in NC and many other states, you have to drastically increase testing and test more than those people who show symptoms. Only after you do this, you have to see a 14 day reduction in the number of positive tests. Currently, due to the fact NC is only testing people with symptoms, the percentage of people testing positive has been stuck at 8% for almost five days. It will only come down as you expand testing. Doubling tests and testing more than just symptomatic people should definitely decrease the percent positive. Right now, I do not believe that 8% of people in NC have Covid-19, but this is how many would interpret the test results. The infection rate is most definitely lower than this, based on the number of people hospitalized and the number of deaths.
Based on the slow response of NC to increase testing, I think you are looking at statewide lock-downs until the end of May. I do think some counties in NC will defy the governor and will begin opening up businesses, due to the fact that they have less than five or fewer confirmed cases.
Daviewolf83 said:I went back and read their notes early this morning. They were not planning on updating the US model. They are updating to add some additional countries and update data for models outside of the US. I does appear they did not update the public models and right now, it is hard to say when they will update the US model based on their update.RunsWithWolves26 said:
Looks like IHME didn't update yesterday like they reported they would. Wonder what caused that delay. Noticed today is parts of the country, people have continued to protest. I think it is safe to say people have run out of patients with this situation and the government response from all parties at all levels. I get the feeling by next week this time, you will see yet another change in the get America back again or whatever the hell they are calling it. Don't think it moved the needle for a lot of people the way they hoped it would.
To get out of the lock-down in NC and many other states, you have to drastically increase testing and test more than those people who show symptoms. Only after you do this, you have to see a 14 day reduction in the number of positive tests. Currently, due to the fact NC is only testing people with symptoms, the percentage of people testing positive has been stuck at 8% for almost five days. It will only come down as you expand testing. Doubling tests and testing more than just symptomatic people should definitely decrease the percent positive. Right now, I do not believe that 8% of people in NC have Covid-19, but this is how many would interpret the test results. The infection rate is most definitely lower than this, based on the number of people hospitalized and the number of deaths.
Based on the slow response of NC to increase testing, I think you are looking at statewide lock-downs until the end of May. I do think some counties in NC will defy the governor and will begin opening up businesses, due to the fact that they have less than five or fewer confirmed cases.
I was basing my comment on the IMHE model on the words of the IMHE director who said yesterday, it would be updated yesterday and they expected the death numbers to come down. As for lockdown in NC until the end of May. That won't fly for most and that dumbass Roy Cooper will have a lot of protest to try to arrest people over. He's to stupid to figure out his ass from a hole in the wall.
The reason the percentage is so high is they are mainly testing these congregate facilities. How much do you think 140 inmates positive in one day skews the numbers.
2 PM is the next media update/presser for NC. What are the odds reporters will keep pressing for nursing home info?
2 PM is the next media update/presser for NC. What are the odds reporters will keep pressing for nursing home info?
So I was looking at this again.
https://files.nc.gov/ncdhhs/documents/files/covid-19/Weekly-COVID19-Surveillance.pdf
Page 2. The chart detects: Percentage of all ED visits that are flu or covid like illness. If there is a fear based stay at home order and people aren't going to the ED for otherwise minor things (sprains, minor injury) or sometimes some major things (due to fear) AND are also being ENCOURAGED to seek medical attention for COVID like symptoms ... can't some artificial bumpage occur?
I would also other than pure percentage like to know what the over all ED visit count was during this period for greater context.
And still below 5% of all ED visits for corona/flu like illness, in line with what was peak in February. Lots of ways to interpret this data, definitely needs more. I guess they do acknowledge the data is clouded by change in behavior.
https://files.nc.gov/ncdhhs/documents/files/covid-19/Weekly-COVID19-Surveillance.pdf
Page 2. The chart detects: Percentage of all ED visits that are flu or covid like illness. If there is a fear based stay at home order and people aren't going to the ED for otherwise minor things (sprains, minor injury) or sometimes some major things (due to fear) AND are also being ENCOURAGED to seek medical attention for COVID like symptoms ... can't some artificial bumpage occur?
I would also other than pure percentage like to know what the over all ED visit count was during this period for greater context.
And still below 5% of all ED visits for corona/flu like illness, in line with what was peak in February. Lots of ways to interpret this data, definitely needs more. I guess they do acknowledge the data is clouded by change in behavior.
Wayland said:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
"Abstract
Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County. Methods On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay. Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics. We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer's data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both. Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections."
Confirmed cases in Santa Clara is currently 1833 with 69 deaths. Puts the fatality rate in direct line with the flu.
This feels like a big deal to me. 50-85 fold infections? More contagious than assumed, but far less deadly? To me, this should speed up the process of getting back to normal, right?
Yup. I've been on that bandwagon for a while now. Much more contagious and less deadly than the numbers show because they are skewed by lack of testing and how the testing is being done.
I was thinking 10-20 times, though. 50-85 is a ginormous number. What does more contagious but less deadly mean in the big picture?
It does seem like a lot of initial studies are coming out that support a theory this is much more widespread than known, and less lethal when taken at a whole.
Because of our government / CDCs inability to prepare we are stuck in a cycle of economic downturn while waiting for them to get the proper testing in place to support the theory and open things back up.
Because of our government / CDCs inability to prepare we are stuck in a cycle of economic downturn while waiting for them to get the proper testing in place to support the theory and open things back up.
It should mean that less severe measures will be needed. We would also be less dependent on a vaccine because we would be that much closer to creating herd immunity.
Of course, first we have to determine how long any potential immunity might last. Herd immunity is of limited benefit if the immunity only lasts a few weeks versus years or a lifetime.
Listening to the Governor now talking about just NOW putting together a testing surge task force. I know it is what we need to be doing, but I can't help be frustrated and bang my head against the wall because he is finally getting around to what we should have been doing weeks ago and exactly what I was ranting about then.
He still seems so lost in this.
He still seems so lost in this.
Wayland said:
Listening to the Governor now talking about just NOW putting together a testing surge task force. I know it is what we need to be doing, but I can't help be frustrated and bang my head against the wall because he is finally getting around to what we should have been doing weeks ago and exactly what I was ranting about then.
He still seems so lost in this.
He is lost in everything. Still blows my mind he actually got elected. The state of NC has been and will continue to be in a mess with him. I was truly hoping there were smarter people around him but I'm beginning to realize that isn't true
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