Well, thanks for digging into it. You guys are making me sound a hell of a lot smarter to my family than I am.
Coronavirus
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Last: 3 hrs ago by Werewolf
IMO it hasn't helped that since this started, anyone that questions anything gets shouted down as somehow not caring about people's lives. It happened on this very thread many times. Part of science is questioning the work of others. It is hard when dealing with unknowns and scared people, but decisions need to be made on the best available data, and when that data changes, decisions should change with it.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
acslater1344 said:statefan91 said:
Charlotte continues to push out when the peak will be, now in June? And haven't begun putting together field hospital that they say will be needed.https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article242000486.html?Quote:
PEAK EXPECTED IN JUNE
More than half of reported cases have been released from isolation. The county public health department expects patients will overwhelm the county health care system in early to mid-May, even with increased social distancing, Harris said.
The county is seeing 40% to 50% social distancing, putting the peak demand for hospital beds on June 8, Harris said. The county expects to need 2,579 hospital beds on June 8, she said.
The county has 255 ICU beds available, Harris said. But with a peak on June 8, the county predicts 1,143 ICU beds would be needed.
And the county expects to see a peak in daily demand for ventilators on June 8 with a demand of 574. The county currently has 243 available ventilators, Harris said.
They need to figure out something because keeping people at home for 3+ months isn't feasible and you will have millions unemployed just in NC, last week it was 500k already.
Huh? What the hell is she looking at?
New cases by week in Meck Co:
3/25-3/31: 278 new cases, 39.7 new reported cases per day
4/1-4/7: 390 new cases, 55.7 new reported cases per day
4/8-4/14: 183 new cases, 26.1 new reported cases per day
So again... what exactly are we seeing that suggests even with social distancing, this will peak in June... makes zero ****ing sense to me and I stare at numbers all day long.
4/15 Meck update: 22 new cases
Peak date for daily cases was 4/6 (76 new cases).
Honestly starting to think local and state officials are just trying to buy time because they thought the case count would be worse, and now they're stuck with a prettier picture than expected and no plan to open things back up. Pretty pathetic leadership at all levels, especially here in Charlotte.
They are worried that if they ease restrictions and 1 person dies (which will happen due to a highly contagious mostly asymptomatic virus existing), it will be held against them in their next election and they will lose votes.
People will also die if they don't loosen restrictions but then they can blame others for it.
Mecklenburg will get their cases to spike soon though. They are opening up two public testing centers (good) and they will get higher positives because positive test case rate is roughly linear right now. It will lower the fatality rate, but they will ignore that.
People will also die if they don't loosen restrictions but then they can blame others for it.
Mecklenburg will get their cases to spike soon though. They are opening up two public testing centers (good) and they will get higher positives because positive test case rate is roughly linear right now. It will lower the fatality rate, but they will ignore that.
4 p.m.: Gov. Roy Cooper laid out the benchmarks needed to reopen North Carolina's economy amid the pandemic:
I am glad these are concrete benchmarks and not just arbitrary statements.
- More testing to determine the extent of the coronavirus in the state
- More public health workers to trace all of the contacts by infected people.
- Improved trends in terms of the number of cases, hospitalizations, deaths, the availability of personal protective gear and other measures.
I am glad these are concrete benchmarks and not just arbitrary statements.
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Recognizing that increased testing will increase the number of positive cases, I am working on a testing-weighted case rate that normalizes the number of cases to the number of people being tested. For example, if the number of positive cases increase by 10% and the number of tests increases by 10%, I want to normalize this to take out the effect of the number of tests increasing by 10% and showing if the rate of infection is actually increasing.Wayland said:
They are worried that if they ease restrictions and 1 person dies (which will happen due to a highly contagious mostly asymptomatic virus existing), it will be held against them in their next election and they will lose votes.
People will also die if they don't loosen restrictions but then they can blame others for it.
Mecklenburg will get their cases to spike soon though. They are opening up two public testing centers (good) and they will get higher positives because positive test case rate is roughly linear right now. It will lower the fatality rate, but they will ignore that.
Of course, I do not expect the news media or government officials to look at the case increases in this way. They will just point to the raw number of cases and say cases are increasing, so we have to extend the lock-down. if they do this and the rate increase is only to an increase in tests being conducted, they will just do more harm to the economy.
This is what I got back from Joe Bruno when asking about Active Cases:
"As far as active cases go, we only know that 53% of cases as of 2/3 days ago have been released from isolation"
That seems significant that over half of cases have been released
"As far as active cases go, we only know that 53% of cases as of 2/3 days ago have been released from isolation"
That seems significant that over half of cases have been released
Cohen finally said she is putting together which deaths may have come from congregate facilities. I guess it is hard to track to 130. Somehow NY can get those numbers for the 700+ deaths they have daily.
Yeah real groundbreaking strategy there Mr. Governor. But not a word about how we actually plan to implement any of these things.Wayland said:
4 p.m.: Gov. Roy Cooper laid out the benchmarks needed to reopen North Carolina's economy amid the pandemic:
- More testing to determine the extent of the coronavirus in the state
- More public health workers to trace all of the contacts by infected people.
- Improved trends in terms of the number of cases, hospitalizations, deaths, the availability of personal protective gear and other measures.
I am glad these are concrete benchmarks and not just arbitrary statements.
Politicians (and some business people I work with) have a great ability to talk a lot and say effectively nothing.
These elected officials should join this board! There is some great stuff here.
How about IPS decide when to open us back up?!?
How about IPS decide when to open us back up?!?
If anyone cares about my opinion i vote to open back up with some restrictions tomorrow.redsteel33 said:
These elected officials should join this board! There is some great stuff here.
How about IPS decide when to open us back up?!?
- High risk groups (old age, pregnant women, etc., should stay at home)
- Areas with high incidents (Wake and Meck counties) should stay closed
- Keep Nursing Homes and Hospitals restricted
- Keep schools closed for the rest of the year
- Employees should be allowed to work from home if they feel the need still
That's all i got off the top of my head
Are you talking raw counts or % of people? While Mecklenburg has a higher count, it's also the most populated....not sure what its # / 100k is as compared to say New Hanover or Guilford counties?cowboypack02 said:If anyone cares about my opinion i vote to open back up with some restrictions tomorrow.redsteel33 said:
These elected officials should join this board! There is some great stuff here.
How about IPS decide when to open us back up?!?
- High risk groups (old age, pregnant women, etc., should stay at home)
- Areas with high incidents (Wake and Meck counties) should stay closed
- Keep Nursing Homes and Hospitals restricted
- Keep schools closed for the rest of the year
- Employees should be allowed to work from home if they feel the need still
That's all i got off the top of my head
Clearly, the very rural counties will likely be almost case free.
And are you including or excluding nursing homes, etc in those counts?
And what if the business that opens in Union County has a dependency on a business in Mecklenburg County...a supplier, for example.
BTW, Id probably add one to your restrictions -- things that require close contact remain closed -- hair / nail salons and the such.
Maybe gyms and the like as well...where you'd get higher volume of people who are also expelling more body fluids, etc?
ETA: And I'd like to know what the plan is for travel eventually -- airlines / hotels -- how do you keep sick people out?
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Here's another idea for opening up. As we know, 80% of deaths are people who are aged 65+ and the average age of death is 80 years old. In fact, when I look at the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) for NYC, I find the following data:
65-74 years old = 12% CFR
75+ years old = 27% CFR
If you look at South Korea, a country that has done the most testing and likely has the most accurate CFR, I see the following:
60-69 years old = 1.8%
70-79 years old = 6.3%
80+ years old = 13%
In NC, the deaths by age breakdown as follows:
0-17 years old = 0%
18-24 years old = 0%
25-49 years old = 7%
50-64 years old =11%
65+ years old = 80%
To open up and protect the most at risk people, I propose opening in phases. During each phase, the age groups affected are allowed to return to work and go about their lives. All other age groups continue to wear masks, practice social distancing, and limiting trips out.
Phase 1: People under the age of 40 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 2: People under the age of 45 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 3: People under the age of 50 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 4: People under the age of 55 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 5: People under the age of 65 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
During this period, all at nursing homes/assisted living, prisons, and hospitals remain in lock-down until a vaccine or reliable treatment is found. I propose spacing these phases out in two to three week segments. Phase 1 would start after deaths and cases have declined for 15 days straight and after the we have the ability to quickly test suspected cases.
If we can get through these phases without any major flair-ups of the virus, we open the economy up to all ages. We would still need to take additional precautions in nursing homes and hospitals until a vaccine or reliable treatment is found.
65-74 years old = 12% CFR
75+ years old = 27% CFR
If you look at South Korea, a country that has done the most testing and likely has the most accurate CFR, I see the following:
60-69 years old = 1.8%
70-79 years old = 6.3%
80+ years old = 13%
In NC, the deaths by age breakdown as follows:
0-17 years old = 0%
18-24 years old = 0%
25-49 years old = 7%
50-64 years old =11%
65+ years old = 80%
To open up and protect the most at risk people, I propose opening in phases. During each phase, the age groups affected are allowed to return to work and go about their lives. All other age groups continue to wear masks, practice social distancing, and limiting trips out.
Phase 1: People under the age of 40 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 2: People under the age of 45 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 3: People under the age of 50 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 4: People under the age of 55 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 5: People under the age of 65 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
During this period, all at nursing homes/assisted living, prisons, and hospitals remain in lock-down until a vaccine or reliable treatment is found. I propose spacing these phases out in two to three week segments. Phase 1 would start after deaths and cases have declined for 15 days straight and after the we have the ability to quickly test suspected cases.
If we can get through these phases without any major flair-ups of the virus, we open the economy up to all ages. We would still need to take additional precautions in nursing homes and hospitals until a vaccine or reliable treatment is found.
Daviewolf83 said:
Here's another idea for opening up. As we know, 80% of deaths are people who are aged 65+ and the average age of death is 80 years old. In fact, when I look at the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) for NYC, I find the following data:
65-74 years old = 12% CFR
75+ years old = 27% CFR
If you look at South Korea, a country that has done the most testing and likely has the most accurate CFR, I see the following:
60-69 years old = 1.8%
70-79 years old = 6.3%
80+ years old = 13%
In NC, the deaths by age breakdown as follows:
0-17 years old = 0%
18-24 years old = 0%
25-49 years old = 7%
50-64 years old =11%
65+ years old = 80%
To open up and protect the most at risk people, I propose opening in phases. During each phase, the age groups affected are allowed to return to work and go about their lives. All other age groups continue to wear masks, practice social distancing, and limiting trips out.
Phase 1: People under the age of 40 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 2: People under the age of 45 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 3: People under the age of 50 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 4: People under the age of 55 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 5: People under the age of 65 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
During this period, all at nursing homes/assisted living, prisons, and hospitals remain in lock-down until a vaccine or reliable treatment is found. I propose spacing these phases out in two to three week segments. Phase 1 would start after deaths and cases have declined for 15 days straight and after the we have the ability to quickly test suspected cases.
If we can get through these phases without any major flair-ups of the virus, we open the economy up to all ages. We would still need to take additional precautions in nursing homes and hospitals until a vaccine or reliable treatment is found.
This is a well thought out idea but if the phase can't start until 15 straight days of declines, you would be starting the phase around the middle of May. Using 2-3 weeks per phase, the economy wouldn't open back up until sometime in late July/early August. At that point, there won't be an economy to go back to. This is not a knock on you, your work here is incredible and speaks for itself. Just a general observation that the economy won't exist at the point that the phases are over and everything opened back up.
Edited to add. If at day 14, we are a slight uptick, do we start the 15 days period back over? If so, you're looking at sometime in June before the phases start and sometime in September before the economy is back open. I just can't see the economy making it under that scenerio. As I've said multiple times, I'm glad I ain't the one making these types of decisions but I sure wish we had better leaders on both sides making them then we do.
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runs- you're really voicing some of the exact same concerns I have. The interesting thing to me is- if you look at the stock market (which is usually a pretty good harbinger of what's coming down the road) it certainly doesn't look like a doomsday scenario. One could argue that at 2,800, the S&P correction could've been expected even without coronavirus. It certainly doesn't "feel" like a market that's expecting a depression. The flip side is this is uncharted territory so they may be underestimating the impact of the shutdown.RunsWithWolves26 said:Daviewolf83 said:
Here's another idea for opening up. As we know, 80% of deaths are people who are aged 65+ and the average age of death is 80 years old. In fact, when I look at the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) for NYC, I find the following data:
65-74 years old = 12% CFR
75+ years old = 27% CFR
If you look at South Korea, a country that has done the most testing and likely has the most accurate CFR, I see the following:
60-69 years old = 1.8%
70-79 years old = 6.3%
80+ years old = 13%
In NC, the deaths by age breakdown as follows:
0-17 years old = 0%
18-24 years old = 0%
25-49 years old = 7%
50-64 years old =11%
65+ years old = 80%
To open up and protect the most at risk people, I propose opening in phases. During each phase, the age groups affected are allowed to return to work and go about their lives. All other age groups continue to wear masks, practice social distancing, and limiting trips out.
Phase 1: People under the age of 40 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 2: People under the age of 45 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 3: People under the age of 50 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 4: People under the age of 55 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 5: People under the age of 65 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
During this period, all at nursing homes/assisted living, prisons, and hospitals remain in lock-down until a vaccine or reliable treatment is found. I propose spacing these phases out in two to three week segments. Phase 1 would start after deaths and cases have declined for 15 days straight and after the we have the ability to quickly test suspected cases.
If we can get through these phases without any major flair-ups of the virus, we open the economy up to all ages. We would still need to take additional precautions in nursing homes and hospitals until a vaccine or reliable treatment is found.
This is a well thought out idea but if the phase can't start until 15 straight days of declines, you would be starting the phase around the middle of May. Using 2-3 weeks per phase, the economy wouldn't open back up until sometime in late July/early August. At that point, there won't be an economy to go back to. This is not a knock on you, your work here is incredible and speaks for itself. Just a general observation that the economy won't exist at the point that the phases are over and everything opened back up.
Edited to add. If at day 14, we are a slight uptick, do we start the 15 days period back over? If so, you're looking at sometime in June before the phases start and sometime in September before the economy is back open. I just can't see the economy making it under that scenerio. As I've said multiple times, I'm glad I ain't the one making these types of decisions but I sure wish we had better leaders on both sides making them then we do.
Packchem91 said:Are you talking raw counts or % of people? While Mecklenburg has a higher count, it's also the most populated....not sure what its # / 100k is as compared to say New Hanover or Guilford counties?cowboypack02 said:If anyone cares about my opinion i vote to open back up with some restrictions tomorrow.redsteel33 said:
These elected officials should join this board! There is some great stuff here.
How about IPS decide when to open us back up?!?
- High risk groups (old age, pregnant women, etc., should stay at home)
- Areas with high incidents (Wake and Meck counties) should stay closed
- Keep Nursing Homes and Hospitals restricted
- Keep schools closed for the rest of the year
- Employees should be allowed to work from home if they feel the need still
That's all i got off the top of my head
Clearly, the very rural counties will likely be almost case free.
And are you including or excluding nursing homes, etc in those counts?
And what if the business that opens in Union County has a dependency on a business in Mecklenburg County...a supplier, for example.
BTW, Id probably add one to your restrictions -- things that require close contact remain closed -- hair / nail salons and the such.
Maybe gyms and the like as well...where you'd get higher volume of people who are also expelling more body fluids, etc?
ETA: And I'd like to know what the plan is for travel eventually -- airlines / hotels -- how do you keep sick people out?
I didn't think it all the way through...just spouting stuff off the top of my head that made sense in the moment. Can't answer any of your questions...hell..I might not even agree with myself if I think about it for a while
Union County (NC) has been publishing its daily case count -- it's typically been 1-6 or so a day. Today, total was 15 new cases, brining total to 124. But the report does call out that 12 of the 15 cases are due to outbreaks in two long-term care facilities in Union County.
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The economy would completely open for those under the age of 40 in mid-May. This is likely well before the governor of NC is planning to open the economy. When the state of NC opens the economy up, it will still be very limited. Limited capacity in restaurants, large gatherings still prohibited. and social distancing/wearing masks will still be needed for all people. Under my proposal, people under the age of 40 in Phase 1 will not be required to wear a mask or social distance and businesses could operate normally for those people under 40. I hope this helps to clarify my ideas. By the time you get to the end of Summer, schools can reopen and for the most part, we can return to normal - with the exception of at risk people, nursing homes, and hospitals. Given the death statistics, keeping people under the age of 65 still practicing social distancing and wearing masks is not warranted. I am also trying to insure we keep the virus tamped down, to avoid the government instituting another lock-down.RunsWithWolves26 said:Daviewolf83 said:
Here's another idea for opening up. As we know, 80% of deaths are people who are aged 65+ and the average age of death is 80 years old. In fact, when I look at the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) for NYC, I find the following data:
65-74 years old = 12% CFR
75+ years old = 27% CFR
If you look at South Korea, a country that has done the most testing and likely has the most accurate CFR, I see the following:
60-69 years old = 1.8%
70-79 years old = 6.3%
80+ years old = 13%
In NC, the deaths by age breakdown as follows:
0-17 years old = 0%
18-24 years old = 0%
25-49 years old = 7%
50-64 years old =11%
65+ years old = 80%
To open up and protect the most at risk people, I propose opening in phases. During each phase, the age groups affected are allowed to return to work and go about their lives. All other age groups continue to wear masks, practice social distancing, and limiting trips out.
Phase 1: People under the age of 40 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 2: People under the age of 45 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 3: People under the age of 50 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 4: People under the age of 55 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 5: People under the age of 65 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
During this period, all at nursing homes/assisted living, prisons, and hospitals remain in lock-down until a vaccine or reliable treatment is found. I propose spacing these phases out in two to three week segments. Phase 1 would start after deaths and cases have declined for 15 days straight and after the we have the ability to quickly test suspected cases.
If we can get through these phases without any major flair-ups of the virus, we open the economy up to all ages. We would still need to take additional precautions in nursing homes and hospitals until a vaccine or reliable treatment is found.
This is a well thought out idea but if the phase can't start until 15 straight days of declines, you would be starting the phase around the middle of May. Using 2-3 weeks per phase, the economy wouldn't open back up until sometime in late July/early August. At that point, there won't be an economy to go back to. This is not a knock on you, your work here is incredible and speaks for itself. Just a general observation that the economy won't exist at the point that the phases are over and everything opened back up.
Edited to add. If at day 14, we are a slight uptick, do we start the 15 days period back over? If so, you're looking at sometime in June before the phases start and sometime in September before the economy is back open. I just can't see the economy making it under that scenerio. As I've said multiple times, I'm glad I ain't the one making these types of decisions but I sure wish we had better leaders on both sides making them then we do.
Steve Williams said:runs- you're really voicing some of the exact same concerns I have. The interesting thing to me is- if you look at the stock market (which is usually a pretty good harbinger of what's coming down the road) it certainly doesn't look like a doomsday scenario. One could argue that at 2,800, the S&P correction could've been expected even without coronavirus. It certainly doesn't "feel" like a market that's expecting a depression. The flip side is this is uncharted territory so they may be underestimating the impact of the shutdown.RunsWithWolves26 said:Daviewolf83 said:
Here's another idea for opening up. As we know, 80% of deaths are people who are aged 65+ and the average age of death is 80 years old. In fact, when I look at the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) for NYC, I find the following data:
65-74 years old = 12% CFR
75+ years old = 27% CFR
If you look at South Korea, a country that has done the most testing and likely has the most accurate CFR, I see the following:
60-69 years old = 1.8%
70-79 years old = 6.3%
80+ years old = 13%
In NC, the deaths by age breakdown as follows:
0-17 years old = 0%
18-24 years old = 0%
25-49 years old = 7%
50-64 years old =11%
65+ years old = 80%
To open up and protect the most at risk people, I propose opening in phases. During each phase, the age groups affected are allowed to return to work and go about their lives. All other age groups continue to wear masks, practice social distancing, and limiting trips out.
Phase 1: People under the age of 40 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 2: People under the age of 45 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 3: People under the age of 50 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 4: People under the age of 55 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 5: People under the age of 65 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
During this period, all at nursing homes/assisted living, prisons, and hospitals remain in lock-down until a vaccine or reliable treatment is found. I propose spacing these phases out in two to three week segments. Phase 1 would start after deaths and cases have declined for 15 days straight and after the we have the ability to quickly test suspected cases.
If we can get through these phases without any major flair-ups of the virus, we open the economy up to all ages. We would still need to take additional precautions in nursing homes and hospitals until a vaccine or reliable treatment is found.
This is a well thought out idea but if the phase can't start until 15 straight days of declines, you would be starting the phase around the middle of May. Using 2-3 weeks per phase, the economy wouldn't open back up until sometime in late July/early August. At that point, there won't be an economy to go back to. This is not a knock on you, your work here is incredible and speaks for itself. Just a general observation that the economy won't exist at the point that the phases are over and everything opened back up.
Edited to add. If at day 14, we are a slight uptick, do we start the 15 days period back over? If so, you're looking at sometime in June before the phases start and sometime in September before the economy is back open. I just can't see the economy making it under that scenerio. As I've said multiple times, I'm glad I ain't the one making these types of decisions but I sure wish we had better leaders on both sides making them then we do.
I follow the market pretty closely. I will say that imo, the market is a sign of the strength of the economy before this all happened. With that said, if it's August/September before things actually fully open back up, there won't be a strong it even poor economy by then. Heck, tomorrow, they are expecting 5 million more unemployment claims to be reported. It can't continue for long like this before it caves in on itself and the global market crashes as well.
Daviewolf83 said:The economy would completely open for those under the age of 40 in mid-May. This is likely well before the governor of NC is planning to open the economy. When the state of NC opens the economy up, it will still be very limited. Limited capacity in restaurants, large gatherings still prohibited. and social distancing/wearing masks will still be needed for all people. Under my proposal, people under the age of 40 in Phase 1 will not be required to wear a mask or social distance and businesses could operate normally for those people under 40. I hope this helps to clarify my ideas. By the time you get to the end of Summer, schools can reopen and for the most part, we can return to normal - with the exception of at risk people, nursing homes, and hospitals. Given the death statistics, keeping people under the age of 65 still practicing social distancing and wearing masks is not warranted. I am also trying to insure we keep the virus tamped down, to avoid the government instituting another lock-down.RunsWithWolves26 said:Daviewolf83 said:
Here's another idea for opening up. As we know, 80% of deaths are people who are aged 65+ and the average age of death is 80 years old. In fact, when I look at the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) for NYC, I find the following data:
65-74 years old = 12% CFR
75+ years old = 27% CFR
If you look at South Korea, a country that has done the most testing and likely has the most accurate CFR, I see the following:
60-69 years old = 1.8%
70-79 years old = 6.3%
80+ years old = 13%
In NC, the deaths by age breakdown as follows:
0-17 years old = 0%
18-24 years old = 0%
25-49 years old = 7%
50-64 years old =11%
65+ years old = 80%
To open up and protect the most at risk people, I propose opening in phases. During each phase, the age groups affected are allowed to return to work and go about their lives. All other age groups continue to wear masks, practice social distancing, and limiting trips out.
Phase 1: People under the age of 40 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 2: People under the age of 45 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 3: People under the age of 50 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 4: People under the age of 55 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 5: People under the age of 65 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
During this period, all at nursing homes/assisted living, prisons, and hospitals remain in lock-down until a vaccine or reliable treatment is found. I propose spacing these phases out in two to three week segments. Phase 1 would start after deaths and cases have declined for 15 days straight and after the we have the ability to quickly test suspected cases.
If we can get through these phases without any major flair-ups of the virus, we open the economy up to all ages. We would still need to take additional precautions in nursing homes and hospitals until a vaccine or reliable treatment is found.
This is a well thought out idea but if the phase can't start until 15 straight days of declines, you would be starting the phase around the middle of May. Using 2-3 weeks per phase, the economy wouldn't open back up until sometime in late July/early August. At that point, there won't be an economy to go back to. This is not a knock on you, your work here is incredible and speaks for itself. Just a general observation that the economy won't exist at the point that the phases are over and everything opened back up.
Edited to add. If at day 14, we are a slight uptick, do we start the 15 days period back over? If so, you're looking at sometime in June before the phases start and sometime in September before the economy is back open. I just can't see the economy making it under that scenerio. As I've said multiple times, I'm glad I ain't the one making these types of decisions but I sure wish we had better leaders on both sides making them then we do.
Completely understand. My thinking was with the phases and the time between them, the time for full opening would be later. Also, if we don't meet the 15 straight days and have to start over, that would hurt as well. I honestly don't see how anything keep moving if this goes to far into mid May. In my response to Steve, I stated that tomorrow, 5 million more are expected to file for unemployment. That's a total of around 23 million in a month. That's unsustainable for any length of time. It's tricky and as always, I'm glad I aint making these decisions.
The fact that so many care facilities are having breakouts while we are under these guidelines is a clear indicator that way more people have or have had the virus than we are counting. As has been mentioned, these places are typically under staffed. If the few employees are bringing the virus into the facilities, while they are presumably following the social distancing while away from work, it would indicate a much higher transmission rate than is being shown currently.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
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I hope you are right, but I am not as optimistic.There is still too much volatility in the market and institutional investors have not returned yet. I believe the market still has a couple of significant drops left - especially when the states in the Northeast announce their weak reopening plans. Also, if Congress does not pass a Phase 4 stimulus package in the next two weeks, the market will react negatively. I personally believe the economy will not respond like a V, but it will be more like a flat U. I am expecting the full year performance for companies to be horrible. It is going to be a hard slog to restart the economy both in the US and globally.Steve Williams said:runs- you're really voicing some of the exact same concerns I have. The interesting thing to me is- if you look at the stock market (which is usually a pretty good harbinger of what's coming down the road) it certainly doesn't look like a doomsday scenario. One could argue that at 2,800, the S&P correction could've been expected even without coronavirus. It certainly doesn't "feel" like a market that's expecting a depression. The flip side is this is uncharted territory so they may be underestimating the impact of the shutdown.RunsWithWolves26 said:Daviewolf83 said:
Here's another idea for opening up. As we know, 80% of deaths are people who are aged 65+ and the average age of death is 80 years old. In fact, when I look at the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) for NYC, I find the following data:
65-74 years old = 12% CFR
75+ years old = 27% CFR
If you look at South Korea, a country that has done the most testing and likely has the most accurate CFR, I see the following:
60-69 years old = 1.8%
70-79 years old = 6.3%
80+ years old = 13%
In NC, the deaths by age breakdown as follows:
0-17 years old = 0%
18-24 years old = 0%
25-49 years old = 7%
50-64 years old =11%
65+ years old = 80%
To open up and protect the most at risk people, I propose opening in phases. During each phase, the age groups affected are allowed to return to work and go about their lives. All other age groups continue to wear masks, practice social distancing, and limiting trips out.
Phase 1: People under the age of 40 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 2: People under the age of 45 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 3: People under the age of 50 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 4: People under the age of 55 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
Phase 5: People under the age of 65 are allowed to exit the lock-down.
During this period, all at nursing homes/assisted living, prisons, and hospitals remain in lock-down until a vaccine or reliable treatment is found. I propose spacing these phases out in two to three week segments. Phase 1 would start after deaths and cases have declined for 15 days straight and after the we have the ability to quickly test suspected cases.
If we can get through these phases without any major flair-ups of the virus, we open the economy up to all ages. We would still need to take additional precautions in nursing homes and hospitals until a vaccine or reliable treatment is found.
This is a well thought out idea but if the phase can't start until 15 straight days of declines, you would be starting the phase around the middle of May. Using 2-3 weeks per phase, the economy wouldn't open back up until sometime in late July/early August. At that point, there won't be an economy to go back to. This is not a knock on you, your work here is incredible and speaks for itself. Just a general observation that the economy won't exist at the point that the phases are over and everything opened back up.
Edited to add. If at day 14, we are a slight uptick, do we start the 15 days period back over? If so, you're looking at sometime in June before the phases start and sometime in September before the economy is back open. I just can't see the economy making it under that scenerio. As I've said multiple times, I'm glad I ain't the one making these types of decisions but I sure wish we had better leaders on both sides making them then we do.
Roy has 2 weeks to get his ducks in a row. He's going to continue to make non quantifiable declarations dipping his toe into the water until the end of the month. Hopefully he's getting enough negative feedback that we start opening up.
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I actually believe the nursing homes/long-term care facilities did a horrible job of protecting patients. As I posted earlier in the thread, many facilities were having the nursing staff wear PPE, but the CNAs were not wearing any PPE. I have been told this by people working some of these facilities. Also, as I posted last night, the CDC had a guideline that staff who had tested positive for Covid could continue to work in the facilities, as long as they only worked with Covid positive patients. This is fine as long as these staff people did not come in contact with any Covid negative people.wilmwolf80 said:
The fact that so many care facilities are having breakouts while we are under these guidelines is a clear indicator that way more people have or have had the virus than we are counting. As has been mentioned, these places are typically under staffed. If the few employees are bringing the virus into the facilities, while they are presumably following the social distancing while away from work, it would indicate a much higher transmission rate than is being shown currently.
As to the penetration rate in NC, only 8% of total tests are coming back positive. This likely means either NC is doing a bad job of identifying people to test and wasting valuable test kits or the penetration level of the virus in North Carolina is low. I suspect it is due to low penetration rates of the virus.
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He will not open up the economy in two weeks, if today's press conference is any indication. I expect it will most likely be end of May. First, cases and deaths have to drop significantly and this will not happen until mid-May. They also have to hire additional healthcare staff to do contact tracing and get additional testing capacity. I do not see this happening until the end of May at best. When he opens the economy, it will only be in small bits and we will still be required to practice social distancing and wearing masks.packgrad said:
Roy has 2 weeks to get his ducks in a row. He's going to continue to make non quantifiable declarations dipping his toe into the water until the end of the month. Hopefully he's getting enough negative feedback that we start opening up.
Right, but if only eight percent are coming back positive, the odds would seem to say it would be improbable that so many workers in care facilities would be among the infected. Even if they did a bad job as far as wearing PPE, the general public hasn't been able to visit these facilities since early in, at least not here in Wilmington. So if the patients are getting it, then the employees are at the least the original source for the introduction into the facilities. Obviously once in, it spreads quickly because of the nature of these places. It just seems improbable to me that so many workers seem to have it if only 8 percent of the people in NC have the virus. Even if only one worker per affected facility had it, that would seem to be out of line with those numbers.
Davie, when you get the chance maybe you could talk about viral load and titer.
https://www.sciencealert.com/does-the-amount-of-covid-19-virus-you-are-exposed-to-determine-how-sick-you-ll-get
Just as a guess, it seems the virus that came through Italy is more virulent than what came into Seattle from China but now enough time has passed that you could be getting exposed to both.
https://www.sciencealert.com/does-the-amount-of-covid-19-virus-you-are-exposed-to-determine-how-sick-you-ll-get
Just as a guess, it seems the virus that came through Italy is more virulent than what came into Seattle from China but now enough time has passed that you could be getting exposed to both.
I like the athletic type
Have heard rumblings of ortho physicians in Wilmington preparing to re-start elective surgeries in "early-mid May"
I think your gonna start to see this in a lot of different industries. You can only take away someone's lively hood for so long before people start to take matters into their own handsTopsailWolf said:
Have heard rumblings of ortho physicians in Wilmington preparing to re-start elective surgeries in "early-mid May"
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I checked the long-term care facility map this morning. Currently, it shows 30 facilities in 23 counties across NC with active cases and the total number of cases they report is 528. The good news is the vast majority of long-term care facilities (381 out of 411 total) in NC have no reported cases. Several of the affected facilities only have one or two cases at most, but there are 9 facilities with more than 20 cases and of those 9 facilities, 5 facilities have more than 50 cases (highest case count is 86 in one facility). So in NC, only 7% of of the facilities have active Cofid-19 cases.wilmwolf80 said:
Right, but if only eight percent are coming back positive, the odds would seem to say it would be improbable that so many workers in care facilities would be among the infected. Even if they did a bad job as far as wearing PPE, the general public hasn't been able to visit these facilities since early in, at least not here in Wilmington. So if the patients are getting it, then the employees are at the least the original source for the introduction into the facilities. Obviously once in, it spreads quickly because of the nature of these places. It just seems improbable to me that so many workers seem to have it if only 8 percent of the people in NC have the virus. Even if only one worker per affected facility had it, that would seem to be out of line with those numbers.
So in actuality, it only required 30 people to infect all of the long-term care facilities currently showing active Covid-19 infections. I suspect a few facilities had more than one person working in them that was infected, but it is not a requirement. As we know, this virus is highly transmittable (definitely more than the flu), so it is quite reasonable to assume that a limited number of people could have infected enough people to get it to grow out of control in a few facilities (9 of the 30 affected). This is why it is so difficult to protect people in the long-term care facilities and why surveillance testing needs to be conducted regularly for people working in these facilities.
This was called conspiracy theory stuff in the early days of the virus.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources
I saw that. If true China needs to face even steeper punishments than they already deserve.
Over 22 million jobless claims in 4 weeks. I understand that people are fearful of this virus. I also understand this economy can't continue like this through June or even mid May. Some will say that the decision makers will face backlash if they open things up and someone dies. Someone is going to die regardless. I've said it multiple times. When you have 1 state accounting for 40% of deaths and 35% of cases, you can't punish the other 49 states. COVID19 is going to be here for many years. We can't keep shutting stuff down whenever a new COVID19 comes around.
I say this knowing that the numbers we see are not accurate. The number of people who have already had this, imo, is in the millions. The number of people under 65 dieing from this is very small. You can't have an all or nothing approach to this virus like has been done so far. It's not feasible for the people, the economy or the country.
I say this knowing that the numbers we see are not accurate. The number of people who have already had this, imo, is in the millions. The number of people under 65 dieing from this is very small. You can't have an all or nothing approach to this virus like has been done so far. It's not feasible for the people, the economy or the country.
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