"It was a complicated series of multiple things that conflated that just, you know, went the wrong way. One of them was a technical glitch that slowed things down in the beginning. Nobody's fault. There wasn't any bad guys there. It just happened," Fauci said.

. not the type of comments you want from the lead medical expert here

It will come last to rural areas but when it does, those folks will have the least resources. It's not fair, but we are at the dawn of the single dirty spoon where government no longer has enough flexibility to have differing rules. That means that rules will be propagated that address the most people, but not the most people on a percentage basis.

lumberpack5 said:

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Everpack said:

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lumberpack5 said:

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Everpack said:

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The puzzling part of all of this is why are Americans not dying? These other countries have seen exponential daily death tolls once it hits. The last six days saw us lose 8, 5, 8, 8, 11 and 18 people. So far today it looks like we've lost another 11 with about six hours left on the daily clock. The first death in the States was on February 29th. We're 17 days into this and still haven't breached 100 deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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Deaths in large droves don't start until the local health system is overwhelmed and until those most likely to die are infected.

Population density in the United States is very low, so natural spread is slower even in our urban areas which are quasi rural compared to urban areas over seas


Italy has an average age of 47 and a population density of 532 per square mile
China has an average age of 39 and a population density of 375 per square mile
US has an average age of 38 and a population density of 94 per square mile

Density matters.

Density in China rises in some cities to 9000 per square mile. NYC is the only place in the US that comes close to such density so while the spread from major city to city may be as fast as other nations, the spread within urban areas will be slower because our areas are less dense.

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That follows my thoughts. But doesn't it beg the question of why are we shutting down restaurants in my rural WNC town of 5,000? Where the poverty rate is already through the roof and child homelessness is a real chronic problem?

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Rural areas are **** ed.

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Excellent argument for the electoral college.

Aren't they just asking that restaurants only serve to-go food rather than shut down completely?

Obviously it hurts the bars that don't serve food, but restaurants can still be open.

packgrad said:

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Politico is propaganda.

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Sure, is your point that we actually didn't refuse the WHO tests and have used them to their fullest capacity? Because I'm pretty sure that's not true.

My point was made in my original post.

statefan91 said:

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Aren't they just asking that restaurants only serve to-go food rather than shut down completely?

Obviously it hurts the bars that don't serve food, but restaurants can still be open.

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Yes. They are asking bars and restaurants that don't offer take out service to shut down completely.

Tax day moved back 90 days as part of Trump administration's coronavirus response.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/17/treasury-and-irs-to-delay-tax-deadline-by-90-days.html

A decent, back and forth discussion took place for about half a page. Simple, constructive discussion. Sadly, it only last a half a page before the few people that enjoy making it this party or that party turned it around. Maybe in a few more pages, we can have another half page of good, constructive discussion instead of let's blame this person or that person or this person is so smart until they say something I don't like then they are scary.

University just announced that all students have to move out by Sunday, although there may be a later date that they can come back by to get things they can't remove by then. Since I'm in the area, I'm just going to move my son out tonight.

Stoney35 said:

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University just announced that all students have to move out by Sunday, although there may be a later date that they can come back by to get things they can't remove by then. Since I'm in the area, I'm just going to move my son out tonight.

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That's tough, but hopefully those that are challenged with having somewhere to go have had time since end of last week to start sorting it out.

Doesn't it make more sense to keep all young people together? Why send potential carriers back home to get the older folks in their community sick?

Seems dumb. Right now we need to separate old people and young people as much as possible.

statefan91 said:

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Aren't they just asking that restaurants only serve to-go food rather than shut down completely?

Obviously it hurts the bars that don't serve food, but restaurants can still be open.

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Cool, so the cooks, management, and ownership don't get screwed over while the waitresses, bartenders, and hosts do.

I couldn't bring myself to run by the ABC store Monday at lunch after I ran to the grocery store for some essentials. Any chance they close the ABC stores too? May need to stock up.

Unfortunately I expect death tolls to climb in the coming days.

A lot of people who were infected but in the incubation period will become symptomatic, and some of them will get really sick.

The fatality rate is an issue but so is the hospitalization rate. That's REALLY the issue.

Serious question: I wonder if death tolls from car accidents have plummeted over the past few days?

King Leary said:

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Serious question: I wonder if death tolls from car accidents have plummeted over the past few days?

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Probably.

Somewhat related: everyone should do whatever they can to not need the hospital for any reason right now. Means being cautious, stocking up on prescriptions, etc. The system is about to overflow.

griff17matt said:

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statefan91 said:

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Aren't they just asking that restaurants only serve to-go food rather than shut down completely?

Obviously it hurts the bars that don't serve food, but restaurants can still be open.

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Cool, so the cooks, management, and ownership don't get screwed over while the waitresses, bartenders, and hosts do.

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Yep. It sucks. But this is where we are.

I tend to think one day we're going to have a legitimate need to separate ourselves and quarantine, and we're going to come up with a great tagline/hashtag #flattenthecurve, and we're going to think back to this, and all of the people that said destroying restaurants and small businesses was the right thing to do, and that schools needed to be shut down for months, and people could all "work" from home, and we're going to get slaughtered because nobody is going to listen. #theboywhocriedwolf

The unpleasant fact of the matter is a crap ton of people need to get infected and die in the next couple of weeks as we have been told is absolutely going to happen, or there are going to be an even bigger crap ton of people that feel they have been duped and WILL NOT listen next time.

packgrad said:

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I tend to think one day we're going to have a legitimate need to separate ourselves and quarantine, and we're going to come up with a great tagline/hashtag #flattenthecurve, and we're going to think back to this, and all of the people that said destroying restaurants and small businesses was the right thing to do, and that schools needed to be shut down for months, and people could all "work" from home, and we're going to get slaughtered because nobody is going to listen. #theboywhocriedwolf

The unpleasant fact of the matter is a crap ton of people need to get infected and die in the next couple of weeks as we have been told is absolutely going to happen, or there are going to be an even bigger crap ton of people that feel they have been duped and WILL NOT listen next time.

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Yep. Call it what you want, but if this thing doesn't start killing hundreds of Americans per day soon, folks are not going to sit back and watch our society crumble because of what if's.

King Leary said:

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Serious question: I wonder if death tolls from car accidents have plummeted over the past few days?

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~ 35,000 people die in car accidents every year.

This GIS site showing the statistics has been fascinating to check the last couple days.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Really alarming how fast the numbers are climbing.

packgrad said:

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I tend to think one day we're going to have a legitimate need to separate ourselves and quarantine, and we're going to come up with a great tagline/hashtag #flattenthecurve, and we're going to think back to this, and all of the people that said destroying restaurants and small businesses was the right thing to do, and that schools needed to be shut down for months, and people could all "work" from home, and we're going to get slaughtered because nobody is going to listen. #theboywhocriedwolf

The unpleasant fact of the matter is a crap ton of people need to get infected and die in the next couple of weeks as we have been told is absolutely going to happen, or there are going to be an even bigger crap ton of people that feel they have been duped and WILL NOT listen next time.

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Hopefully there will be a clear and coherent message after this has passed as to how the US did / did not lessen the impact of the virus and that can be presented for the masses so they know it wasn't "boy who cried wolf"

Has anyone found a way to see how many active cases required hospitalization? The worldometers.info site shows a serious/critical number, but it has been relatively unchanged for days.

Everpack said:

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Has anyone found a way to see how many active cases required hospitalization? The worldometers.info site shows a serious/critical number, but it has been relatively unchanged for days.

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Pretty consistently seems to be about 20% need hospitalization, regardless of country.

Even a 5% hosp rate would be catastrophic.

packgrad said:

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I tend to think one day we're going to have a legitimate need to separate ourselves and quarantine, and we're going to come up with a great tagline/hashtag #flattenthecurve, and we're going to think back to this, and all of the people that said destroying restaurants and small businesses was the right thing to do, and that schools needed to be shut down for months, and people could all "work" from home, and we're going to get slaughtered because nobody is going to listen. #theboywhocriedwolf

The unpleasant fact of the matter is a crap ton of people need to get infected and die in the next couple of weeks as we have been told is absolutely going to happen, or there are going to be an even bigger crap ton of people that feel they have been duped and WILL NOT listen next time.

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Worst pandemic in a century and you're worried it's a boy who cried wolf situation?

Ooookay.

At this point it isn't even close to the worst pandemic in a century. Technically that title goes to AIDS, and it's not close. There have also been multiple flu pandemics over the last century that killed millions worldwide. We don't know where it will end up on that list when all is said and done. We may be able to project the death tolls, but it's not there yet. And I don't believe he said it was a cried wolf situation. What he said was that your average person looks at the current numbers and doesn't understand the extreme measures being taken, because they don't understand how it spreads. So if it doesn't start getting much worse very quickly, the collective masses are going to stop listening to the experts, which we already know to be true because you have to close down the bars and restaurants to keep people from going out.

GoPack2008 said:

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Everpack said:

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Has anyone found a way to see how many active cases required hospitalization? The worldometers.info site shows a serious/critical number, but it has been relatively unchanged for days.

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Pretty consistently seems to be about 20% need hospitalization, regardless of country.

Even a 5% hosp rate would be catastrophic.

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You got a link?

^
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/17/new-york-state-coronavirus-cases-soar-to-more-than-1300-hospitalizing-19percent.html

This is pretty much in line with what was being reported out of China. I think it's covered in the WHO Mission to China report that I linked earlier.

Numbers look better out of S Korea because more testing==larger denominator and more testing leads to earlier care, I think.

wilmwolf80 said:

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At this point it isn't even close to the worst pandemic in a century. Technically that title goes to AIDS, and it's not close. There have also been multiple flu pandemics over the last century that killed millions worldwide. We don't know where it will end up on that list when all is said and done. We may be able to project the death tolls, but it's not there yet. And I don't believe he said it was a cried wolf situation. What he said was that your average person looks at the current numbers and doesn't understand the extreme measures being taken, because they don't understand how it spreads. So if it doesn't start getting much worse very quickly, the collective masses are going to stop listening to the experts, which we already know to be true because you have to close down the bars and restaurants to keep people from going out.

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I have to say, that's one of the most charitable reads of a packgrad post I've ever seen. Props to you for that.

This is going to be the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu, and it won't be close. The global death toll of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic was under 300,000. A couple in the 60s hit 1-2 million globally. HIV/AIDS was a different animal, because of method of transmission. This is respiratory and airborne. You're right, it killed a lot of people, in the tens of millions.

But have you ever seen a pandemic so concern the entire world that they shut borders down? This is completely unprecedented.

And here's the thing...by the time it's become the worst pandemic of the past century...it's too late to stop it.

And anyway, the story of the boy who cried wolf is of a boy who's maliciously tricking people with deception, and then loses credibility. Nobody's maliciously tricking anyone here.

If a wolf is literally coming to attack people, you don't have the luxury of worrying about "crying wolf." You just have to warn them, and deal with the consequences later.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/17/816880576/white-house-expected-to-provide-updates-on-coronavirus-response?utm_campaign=politics&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_term=nprnews

Never been a fan of this administration, but this is absolutely the right move. Kudos to them. Absolutely the right move.

"He said Trump wants to start sending out checks within the next two weeks, though it was not immediately clear whether that was possible, or how it would work.
It's not clear what income ceiling might be put on the stimulus payments, but Mnuchin said the government does not want to send checks to millionaires.
The administration is also planning to allow Americans to defer tax payments up to $1 million for 90 days."

Do you guys realize how serious something has to be for the Republicans to turn to universal basic income?

Nm. Tire of responding to "the boy". .

packgrad said:

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Tax day moved back 90 days as part of Trump administration's coronavirus response.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/17/treasury-and-irs-to-delay-tax-deadline-by-90-days.html

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This is a very good move.

Hitting April 15 is going to hard for a lot of people for a lot of reasons.

GoPack2008 said:

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https://www.npr.org/2020/03/17/816880576/white-house-expected-to-provide-updates-on-coronavirus-response?utm_campaign=politics&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_term=nprnews

Never been a fan of this administration, but this is absolutely the right move. Kudos to them. Absolutely the right move.

"He said Trump wants to start sending out checks within the next two weeks, though it was not immediately clear whether that was possible, or how it would work.
It's not clear what income ceiling might be put on the stimulus payments, but Mnuchin said the government does not want to send checks to millionaires.
The administration is also planning to allow Americans to defer tax payments up to $1 million for 90 days."

Do you guys realize how serious something has to be for the Republicans to turn to universal basic income?

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Again, you can make your point without singling out a political party. I understand that is your go to but for the sake of the thread, maybe you can refrain from doing it. Yourself and a couple of others will take the comment at the end of your post and turn this thing into a cluster for the next 3-4 pages. Thanks

Got this from a friend who works at a local hospital and thought some here would be interested in reading.






Got this from a physician
Preliminary information, they are studying why the disease pathway in Italy is more serious. One of the factors was that most Italian patients took ibuprofen at home. They combine the virus and ibuprofen in the laboratory and came to the conclusion that the administration of ibuprofen accelerates the multiplication of the virus and that it is related to a more serious course of the disease. They recommend avoiding ibuprofen and other NSAIDS for fever, I guess similar to the association of aspirin in chicken pox leading to Reye's syndrome.

And IF POSSIBLE try and avoid Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) like lisinopril and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers like valsartan see Lancet article.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30116-8/fulltext "Human pathogenic coronaviruses (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus [SARS-CoV] and SARS-CoV-2) bind to their target cells through angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), which is expressed by epithelial cells of the lung, intestine, kidney, and blood vessels.4 The expression of ACE2 is substantially increased in patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes, who are treated with ACE inhibitors and angiotensin II type-I receptor blockers (ARBs) .4 Hypertension is also treated with ACE inhibitors and ARBs, which results in an upregulation of ACE2.5 ACE2 can also be increased by thiazolidinediones and ibuprofen. suggest that ACE2 expression is increased in diabetes and treatment with ACE inhibitors and ARBs increases ACE2 expression. Consequently, the increased expression of ACE2 would facilitate

infection with COVID-19. We therefore hypothesise that diabetes and hypertension treatment with ACE2-stimulating drugs increases the risk of developing severe and fatal COVID-19. "
From one of my classmates

Coronavirus update- I'm on day 9 of this journey. Holding steady with regards to symptoms. Have never had a fever. Still short of breath with walking or talking. Developed an ear infection plus possible bacterial pneumonia on top of the viral pneumonia. Thank God for antibiotics and friends who deliver them!
I have learned that no anti inflammatory agents should be used when you have Covid 19. So no Motrin, Alleve, aspirin, prednisone, elderberry. Stick with Tylenol for fever.
Remember eclinic visits are sometimes possible and an excellent way to avoid other sick people.

Be safe"