Looking at today's deaths. I couldn't find where they added 3 of them anywhere in the last month. And one day 5/9/2020, I have dropping from 12 deaths to 11 deaths.

So not sure what is happening, but who knows who is QAing this for DHHS.

Wayland said:

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Looking at today's deaths. I couldn't find where they added 3 of them anywhere in the last month. And one day 5/9/2020, I have dropping from 12 deaths to 11 deaths.

So not sure what is happening, but who knows who is QAing this for DHHS.

---

They make crazy adjustments every day for some strange reason, although I see it more with cases than deaths. Late last week, they were making minor adjustments to cases back in mid-April. The minor adjustments seem to be entirely random.

Wayland said:

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NJ just raised its allowed number in outdoor gatherings to 100. Will increase to 250 on June 22nd, and 500 on July 3rd.

---

Wait? What?!?

And didn't I just hear Cooper talking about now adding a "mystical" Phase 2.5 to grant some - but also further delay some of the restorations???

Followed up by his straight out lie about not being able to commit to anything (not my fault?) regarding the previously scheduled Republican Convention in Charlotte for the last week in August... only 1 week before our first football game. Does anybody in the state of North Carolina play at home Labor Day weekend?

But everything in New York is already OK?

Yeah, we definitely get it Roy.

So Jersey is going to 500 on July 3rd but Cooper is reckless by not allowing 19k people in the arena in Aug? Not to mention hospitalizations are increasing right now. Do we see any 19k crowds allowed indoors in the plans anywhere right now In this country or by the end of the summer for that matter?

Yes. There are several states willing to host.

packgrad said:

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Yes. There are several Republican governors willing to pimp out their own state to curry political favor with Trump.

---

FTFY.

Science is firmly on Cooper's side in this.

What evidence do you see that makes you or anyone else think that having a 19,000 person indoor convention in August is medically responsible?

wilmwolf80 said:

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Really don't need this thread to turn back political for the hundredth time. There's no reason a convention has to be inside as far as I know. I haven't seen much if any scientific objection to tens of thousands of people in the streets this week, don't know why any other outside gatherings would be different.

---

And that's why I'm not putting I'm my two cents

wilmwolf80 said:

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Really don't need this thread to turn back political for the hundredth time. There's no reason a convention has to be inside as far as I know. I haven't seen much if any scientific objection to tens of thousands of people in the streets this week, don't know why any other outside gatherings would be different.

---

Really? I've seen a whole lot of media hand-wringing this week about the worry that recent protests may cause a spike in cases.

Has there been talk of moving it outside? How would that work? Outdoor stadium in August?

packgrad said:

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Correct. The science isn't on anyone's side either. If anything the "science" has been highly inaccurate and remarkably fluid. Heck, science told us "very rare" one day then "16%" the next day. Not sure anyone can hang their hat on this "science" anymore.

---

Hell, WRAL was claiming up to 50% of cases being transmitted by asymptomatics. In short, nobody knows.

But we can't just say, "**** it, nobody knows, so let's party like it's 1999!!1"

Even given the unsettled science, I support us all getting back to work and school in responsible, prudent ways.

A gathering of 20k people in August will, at that time, likely be 20x-40x larger than any other gathering in the country in six months. That doesn't feel measured or prudent.

Civilized said:

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packgrad said:

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Correct. The science isn't on anyone's side either. If anything the "science" has been highly inaccurate and remarkably fluid. Heck, science told us "very rare" one day then "16%" the next day. Not sure anyone can hang their hat on this "science" anymore.

---

Hell, WRAL was claiming up to 50% of cases being transmitted by asymptomatics. In short, nobody knows.

But we can't just say, "**** it, nobody knows, so let's party like it's 1999!!1"

Even given the unsettled science, I support us all getting back to work and school in responsible, prudent ways.

A gathering of 20k people in August will, at that time, likely be 20x-40x larger than any other gathering in the country in six months. That doesn't feel measured or prudent.

---

Ok. Don't go.

packgrad said:

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Civilized said:

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packgrad said:

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Correct. The science isn't on anyone's side either. If anything the "science" has been highly inaccurate and remarkably fluid. Heck, science told us "very rare" one day then "16%" the next day. Not sure anyone can hang their hat on this "science" anymore.

---

Hell, WRAL was claiming up to 50% of cases being transmitted by asymptomatics. In short, nobody knows.

But we can't just say, "**** it, nobody knows, so let's party like it's 1999!!1"

Even given the unsettled science, I support us all getting back to work and school in responsible, prudent ways.

A gathering of 20k people in August will, at that time, likely be 20x-40x larger than any other gathering in the country in six months. That doesn't feel measured or prudent.

---

Ok. Don't go.

---

You're right.

Definitely, the only concern is the health of the people in the building and not all the collateral damage if it becomes a super spreader event.

burnbarn said:

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So Jersey is going to 500 on July 3rd but Cooper is reckless by not allowing 19k people in the arena in Aug? Not to mention hospitalizations are increasing right now. Do we see any 19k crowds allowed indoors in the plans anywhere right now In this country or by the end of the summer for that matter?

---

To answer your question, these are the cities under consideration.

"Among the cities believed to be in the hunt are Oklahoma City; Tulsa, Oklahoma; Savannah, Georgia; Orlando, Florida; Jacksonville Florida; Dallas; Nashville, Tennessee; Phoenix and Las Vegas."

packgrad said:

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burnbarn said:

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So Jersey is going to 500 on July 3rd but Cooper is reckless by not allowing 19k people in the arena in Aug? Not to mention hospitalizations are increasing right now. Do we see any 19k crowds allowed indoors in the plans anywhere right now In this country or by the end of the summer for that matter?

---

To answer your question, these are the cities under consideration.

"Among the cities believed to be in the hunt are Oklahoma City; Tulsa, Oklahoma; Savannah, Georgia; Orlando, Florida; Jacksonville Florida; Dallas; Nashville, Tennessee; Phoenix and Las Vegas."

---

Apologies because I have just been focused on NC mostly, have any of those States opened up to large indoor gatherings thus far? I know there was mention of NJ opening up to something like 100 in the near future and they were obviously much worse off than we were.

I'm sure LV is ready to get conventions back underway as soon as possible so likely Nevada is looking at large indoor gatherings.

I don't know. I just looked to see what options were being pursued.

Out of curiosity, I just looked. Looks like the Dem convention is scheduled for August as well. I'm guessing they'll find a way to pull it off. I did see it mentioned that large stadiums were being considered. By August all the major sports will be up and running. Some of them are scheduled to have fans of varying degrees. I'm certain we can figure out a way to have the conventions.

wilmwolf80 said:

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Out of curiosity, I just looked. Looks like the Dem convention is scheduled for August as well. I'm guessing they'll find a way to pull it off. I did see it mentioned that large stadiums were being considered. By August all the major sports will be up and running. Some of them are scheduled to have fans of varying degrees. I'm certain we can figure out a way to have the conventions.

---

Will be interesting to see how they work it out.

I'd guess having the RNC outdoors was a topic broached by Cooper and RNC leadership. Would have been curious to have been a fly on the wall.

My completely uninformed guess is that the RNC is not OK with an outdoor gathering. That's a big, visible reminder of corona. I think they want to put everybody in a building as a "look, America's back gesture!" to help bolster Trump's certain claims that he showed the Rona who's boss and we're back to business as usual. The opposite implication will be damaging for his bid, so he almost has to make that claim.

We'll see how it evolves.

packgrad said:

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I don't know. I just looked to see what options were being pursued.

---

Just got an e-mail from the Charlotte Observer, funny enough:

"Report: GOP settles on Jacksonville for its convention, moving on from Charlotte

That would leave business meetings in Charlotte"

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/rnc-2020/article243421051.html

Quote:

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Republican officials has decided to move their national convention from Charlotte to Jacksonville, Fla., according to a report in Wednesday's Washington Post.
Party leaders have been looking at other cities since last week when President Donald Trump tweeted that they would look for another city that could guarantee a big crowd for his acceptance speech in August. The convention is set to run Aug. 24-27.
Trump made his decision after North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said he could not guarantee full attendance at Charlotte's Spectrum Center because of restrictions imposed because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Post reported that "more routine and lower-profile meetings" would still take place in Charlotte.
City officials, leaders of the Charlotte host committee and party officials have been talking since last week. The city and the party have signed contracts for facilities and other aspects of the convention.

---

Thanks. Wonder what the difference is attendance wise for those meetings. 10% of convention amount? More? I'm guessing the financial impact will be minimal.

Yeah I don't think the business meetings will be very much. I think they're probably keeping the meetings there because they've already reserved space and this will probably prevent either the city or RNC from being able to sue each other for breach of contract.

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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6/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
29,263
NC Deaths**
898
Currently Hospitalized
650
Completed Tests
421,908

559 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
72 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

267 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
631 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

162 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)

WRAL is at 923 (+2) and NandO is at 944 deaths

674 positive cases over 5619 new tests. 12.0% positive rate.

3 of the deaths reported by DHHS today are over 10 days old. Expect a spike in hospitalizations tomorrow, hospitals have been slack in reporting on the weekends.

---

6/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases*
29,889
NC Deaths**
921
Currently Hospitalized
716
Completed Tests
434,921

574 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
76 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+23 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

271 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
650 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)

163 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 933 (+2) and NandO is at 961 deaths

626 positive cases over 13,013 new tests. 4.8% positive rate.

DHHS is now releasing updates at noon instead of 11am. Apparently they need an extra hour to process increased testing data. Tough decisions on what data to release on what day to support narratives.

There is that jump back in hospitalizations I called yesterday now that most of them are reporting again.

5 of the deaths reported today occurred over a week ago. The remaining 17 all fall between 5/27-6/1.

---

6/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases*
30,777
NC Deaths**
939
Currently Hospitalized
684
Completed Tests
449,263

585 Deaths are now Congregate (+11)
80 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

274 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
665 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

163 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)

WRAL is at 952 (+2) and NandO is at 980 deaths

888 positive cases over 14342 new tests. 6.2% positive rate.

Every day for the last 8 days contains at least 1 death reported in today's total.

26 of the deaths reported by the media but not reported by DHHS are coming from three counties.
Carteret - DHHS 3, NandO 9, County - 3
Robeson - DHHS 14, NandO 26, County - 22
Alamance - DHHS 20, NandO 28, County - 23

Media reporting that unfortunately, NC has had its first death of a minor due to COVID-19 complications.

---

6/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases*
31,966
NC Deaths**
960
Currently Hospitalized
659
Completed Tests
468,302

598 Deaths are now Congregate (+13)
79 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

283 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
677 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

167 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)

WRAL is at 963 (+2) and NandO is at 997 deaths

1189 positive cases over 19039 new tests. 6.2% positive rate.

Big case day, massive number of tests. Hospitalizations down (85% reporting vs 88% yesterday). Most of the cases are from Monday, maybe they are getting a little quicker at reporting.

Based on my daily tracking of deaths by date starting 5/7. Three of the death reported today either were not added to the DHHS graph or occurred greater than a month ago. 1 is from 5/21 and the remainder are from within the last week.

---

6/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases*
33,255
NC Deaths**
966
Currently Hospitalized
717
Completed Tests
482,147

602 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
78 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+6 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

286 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
680 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

171 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)

WRAL is at 1004 (+2) and NandO is at 1006 deaths

1289 positive cases over 13845 new tests. 9.3% positive rate.

More high case day. Maybe this will be the weekend dump early. Still wondering about the 40 gap in deaths. I wonder if there is something to probably vs confirmed cases. Whatever. Will get there eventually.

---

6/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

34,625
NC Deaths**
992
Currently Hospitalized
708
Completed Tests
497,350

621 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
79 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

292 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
700 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

176 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 1032 (+2) and NandO is at 1028 deaths

1370 positive cases over 15203 new tests. 9.0% positive rate.

Biggest day of positive 'reported' cases. Deaths continue to be driven by congregate facilities.

---

6/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
35,546
NC Deaths
996
Currently Hospitalized
696 <- only 76% hospitals reporting
Completed Tests
511,226

623 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
80 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

293 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
703 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

171 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-5)

WRAL is at 1038 (+2) and NandO is at 1028 deaths

921 positive cases over 13876 new tests.6.6% positive rate.

---

6/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
36,484
NC Deaths
1006
Currently Hospitalized
739 <- new high. still only 77% reporting. Need to watch.
Completed Tests
520,113

634 Deaths are now Congregate (+11)
78 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-2)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

294 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
712 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

171 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)

WRAL is at 1053 (+2) and NandO is at 1041 deaths

938 positive cases over 8887 new tests. 10.6% positive rate.

5 of the deaths added today to the Death by Date chart at DHHS were from over 2 weeks ago. It did make the single highest fatality date to be 5/25 with 27 deaths.

7 of the additional death added to the daily total today appear to have come out of Chatham County. Looks like they had some paperwork reconciliation.

---

6/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
37,160
NC Deaths
1029
Currently Hospitalized
774 <- new high. still only 84% reporting. Expected increase with higher reporting. Stable from ystday
Completed Tests
535,711

647 Deaths are now Congregate (+13)
79 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+23 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

303 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
726 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+14)

177 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)

WRAL is at 1068 (+2) and NandO is at 1068 deaths

676 positive cases over 15,598 new tests. 4.3% positive rate.

Congregate spread continues.

Side note of the day: NY has stopped reporting deaths in their daily briefing because the number is not "significant anymore" since most of the deaths are things like "covid and heart disease". NY reported 74 COVID deaths yesterday. 3 times NC's worst day, but now their daily deaths don't matter. Has to be nice to kill so many that it doesn't matter anymore.

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6/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
38,171
NC Deaths
1053
Currently Hospitalized
780 <- new high. but higher reporting %. stable
Completed Tests
553,650

661 Deaths are now Congregate (+14)
83 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+24 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

309 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
744 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+18)

182 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 1079 (+2) and NandO is at 1089 deaths

1011 positive cases over 17939 new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

As of yesterday ~36 Congregate Facilities were out of the outbreak stage. They are not included in the active outbreak count.

22 of today's reported death are from June. 1 reported death is from 5/8. 1 reported death is either prior to 5/7 or not reflected on the DHHS graph.

Testing % positive has been trending back down.

Wayland said:

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Testing % positive has been trending back down.

---

Good to see this.

One of the more important updates; more telling than new cases because it's always unclear how much of the 'new case' data is just driving by the quantity of the testing ebbing and flowing.

Thanks much for all the updates.

Civilized said:

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Wayland said:

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Testing % positive has been trending back down.

---

Good to see this.

One of the more important updates; more telling than new cases because it's always unclear how much of the 'new case' data is just driving by the quantity of the testing ebbing and flowing.

Thanks much for all the updates.

---

I'd say more often than not, the high positive days likely correlate to when specific hot spot or outbreaks are being caught. NC has remained mostly stable, outbreaks will happen, peaks and valleys will happen.

Local headline "As testing increases and social distancing rules relax, Covid19 cases are on the rise in New Hanove County and North Carolina. The curve is getting steeper---not flatter".

I wish we had more information on hospitalizations. Without it, we are only left to guess what is actually going on. What is the spread of people hospitalized by age? What are the dates of admits for people currently hospitalized. How many are in ICU and how many require ventilators? How many are coming from the outbreaks in the nursing homes and other congregate facilities?

One thing is clear about today's hospitalization increase. The number of people hospitalized increased by 1%, but the number of hospitals reporting increased by 2%. So it appears, hospitalizations may have actually declined overall.

Daviewolf83 said:

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I wish we had more information on hospitalizations. Without it, we are only left to guess what is actually going on. What is the spread of people hospitalized by age? What are the dates of admits for people currently hospitalized. How many are in ICU and how many require ventilators? How many are coming from the outbreaks in the nursing homes and other congregate facilities?

One thing is clear about today's hospitalization increase. The number of people hospitalized increased by 1%, but the number of hospitals reporting increased by 2%. So it appears, hospitalizations may have actually declined overall.

---

Which is why I have to try and use states that seem to be in similar situations and guess based on their reporting.

Texas and Arizona both show some increase in hospitalizations, but when you look at their daily admits they are largely stable.

For NC (due to surveillance report), I think the spike from the end of April to the beginning of May was due to an increase in admits of non-critical patients. I think from the end of May until now we may be seeing an ACTUAL small increase in critical cases, but I still think that is 'mostly' stable.

But NC DHHS doesn't want to be clear with the data because if they did, they would lose control of the narrative.




Experts don't even consider this increase a 'spike'. It is just an increase.

Quote:

---

But at this point in time, with only 84 percent of hospitals reporting, experts said we're still in good shape should we see a spike.

"We are really far away from seeing these hospitals getting to at capacity levels in terms of beds, icu beds or ventilators," Dukes said.

---

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/as-covid-hospitalizations-hit-new-high-nc-hospitals-ready-to-pivot-away-from-less-urgent-care/19137841/

Don't love reading this.

Dr. Anthony Fauci says WHO's remark on asymptomatic coronavirus spread 'was not correct'


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/dr-anthony-fauci-says-whos-remark-on-asymptomatic-coronavirus-spread-was-not-correct.html

Civilized said:

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Don't love reading this.

Dr. Anthony Fauci says WHO's remark on asymptomatic coronavirus spread 'was not correct'


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/dr-anthony-fauci-says-whos-remark-on-asymptomatic-coronavirus-spread-was-not-correct.html

---

Trusted a lot of what he said at the beginning but I've come to realize he is just about politics and anyone who supports that teddros moron is IMO, messed up in the head. As for WHO. What a joke they have been throughout this entire process. Don't believe a word that comes out of that organization. Fauci was the same guy pushing no school until next year, don't wear a facemask, oh wait, do wear one, etc.

I have a problem when so much of the scientific advice seems to be subject to change based on social pressures, particularly since the whim of the public opinion changes with the weather. I don't much care who it is coming from. If you have hard scientific evidence of something, put it out there, whether people want to hear it or not.

I did notice today that since the protest have calmed down, fox news has made the decision to have the coronavirus **** posted all day on their channel. Guess you gotta get eyes on your TV. I guess coronavirus is a world ender again now.

wilmwolf80 said:

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I have a problem when so much of the scientific advice seems to be subject to change based on social pressures, particularly since the whim of the public opinion changes with the weather. I don't much care who it is coming from. If you have hard scientific evidence of something, put it out there, whether people want to hear it or not.

---

My confidence in the CDC took a hit early.

The one that killed me was the CDC initially telling people that wearing a mask wouldn't keep you/us any safer.

I am clearly not a doctor but at the time, my immediate thought was "there's no way that's true."

We didn't know if masks would keep us significantly safer, but there was no way - zero - that wearing a mask was ever going to hurt anything. It seemed like it was all upside. It just makes sense that if you're wearing something over your face, fewer airborne particles/viruses, whatever will get in and out of your mouth and nose.

Why not start encouraging mask wearing from the jump?

I think the answer was that it was more political/social pressure to not make it seem like the Rona wasn't a real problem.

WHO said healthy people don't need to wear face masks.

https://www.businessinsider.com/who-no-need-for-healthy-people-to-wear-face-masks-2020-4

Well, while wearing a mask, particularly a homemade one doesn't make you significantly safer, you're right it mostly doesn't hurt. The reason why some scientists and health professionals have been against wearing masks is because people relax their social distancing when wearing a mask because of a false sense of security. It's a behavior that's very easy to observe in most any grocery store with people talking in the aisles. So while your cheap or homemade mask may stop a certain percentage of particles, that benefit gets negated if you closely interact with someone for an extended period of time. That's not political, it's just science. But, when an expert explains that, the headline is "expert says no need to wear a mask", and then that person is either championed or attacked depending on the leanings of the mob that day.

Civilized said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

---

I have a problem when so much of the scientific advice seems to be subject to change based on social pressures, particularly since the whim of the public opinion changes with the weather. I don't much care who it is coming from. If you have hard scientific evidence of something, put it out there, whether people want to hear it or not.

---

My confidence in the CDC took a hit early.

The one that killed me was the CDC initially telling people that wearing a mask wouldn't keep you/us any safer.

I am clearly not a doctor but at the time, my immediate thought was "there's no way that's true."

We didn't know if masks would keep us significantly safer, but there was no way - zero - that wearing a mask was ever going to hurt anything. It seemed like it was all upside. It just makes sense that if you're wearing something over your face, fewer airborne particles/viruses, whatever will get in and out of your mouth and nose.

Why not start encouraging mask wearing from the jump?

I think the answer was that it was more political/social pressure to not make it seem like the Rona wasn't a real problem.

---

I think it was also not pushed, due to the limited supply of masks at the time. I really believe they shifted guidance as supply began to improve.