I don't know - but my guess is that you can't prevent it from spreading without a vaccine, can probably only slow it by people wearing masks, washing hands more, etc.
Coronavirus
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Last: 7 hrs ago by Werewolf
I believe deaths for NC will come in under 250, based on current trends (even with the severe issues in nursing homes). As to the older model (4/9 model), the deaths maxed out at 415.609 (on 5/15) deaths and the peak on deaths per day came on 4/17 with total deaths on that day predicted to be 21.016 deaths. The new model (4/13) shows a maximum of 415.133 deaths and we hit this total on 5/17 - two days later than the 4/9 model. Of course, I am referring to mean deaths and not the lower or upper limits. Below is the graph with the 4/13 model predictions added.Wayland said:
Even with the June assumption, in the IHME model deaths in NC fall to near zero at the end of April. I don't think this is realistic since we are going to be at a minimum fighting congregate outbreaks or stray active virus in the active population.
Barring any extreme outbreaks, huge congregate spikes, I might put the NC death toll closer to 250 at the end of April (instead of 400) but with continuing low deaths lagging along well into May and beyond.
Test-and-Target should be implemented to open up and this, along with new treatments should keep the virus in check. We will continue to have cases and we will continue to have deaths, just as we do with other viruses. The key is to keep it under control with Test-and-Target so the healthcare system does not get overwhelmed. Even when we have a vaccine, people will get the virus and die, since not everyone will get the vaccine and no vaccine is 100% effective.King Leary said:
If everything was to open in mid-May.... what defenses do we have to prevent further spread? Warmer weather, 6 feet apart, masks, sanitizer.
Genuine question to the board: do we think that would be enough? Or would we need further measures like limiting building capacity, certain businesses still closed, etc?
No business should be closed if Test-and-Target are implement. People may continue to wear masks, handshaking should be avoided, and we should continue to wash our hands constantly and if sick, stay home. I also believe sports should return as well. They can start out by limiting fans in attendance (only players, staff, and media), but games should be able to be played in the later Summer and the Fall. Test-and-Target should be implemented to protect the most vulnerable of the population. Schools should be able to open in the Fall as well, including universities.
WRAL has 100 deaths now. Weekend numbers coming in.
Mean predicted deaths for tomorrow is 110. I suspect the official NC numbers will be in the mid-90's.Wayland said:
WRAL has 100 deaths now. Weekend numbers coming in.
IHME was only off about 700 deaths for the day today compared to their estimates.
Daviewolf83 said:Mean predicted deaths for tomorrow is 110. I suspect the official NC numbers will be in the mid-90's.Wayland said:
WRAL has 100 deaths now. Weekend numbers coming in.
Well News and Observer now has it at 108. 19 deaths reported today... Or weekend lag. Still want to know congregate breakdown.
This update likely includes the 2 deaths that are not and should not be included in the official NCDHHS numbers. Also, this likely does include weekend lag, due to the Good Friday/Easter weekend. I suspect after the next couple of days, the daily deaths will return to more normal rates.Wayland said:Daviewolf83 said:Mean predicted deaths for tomorrow is 110. I suspect the official NC numbers will be in the mid-90's.Wayland said:
WRAL has 100 deaths now. Weekend numbers coming in.
Well News and Observer now has it at 108. 19 deaths reported today... Or weekend lag. Still want to know congregate breakdown.
As I said earlier, this will be the worst week for deaths. I still believe cases will peak at the end of the week and daily death rates will likely peak early next week (5 day lag in peaks), due to the nursing home issue. The nursing home issue pushed out the peak by several days. I still think 250 is a good number to focus on from a total number - although we will never really reach a total. We will likely have cases for many years. It will flare up just like the flu does where some years are worse than others.
I also wish they would breakout the congregate deaths and I am sure the modelers would appreciate it as well. It would really help the models, since the congregate population is most likely to have higher mortality rates. You almost have to look at them as two separate populations. I suspect the non-congregate population is flat or declining, but congregate deaths are pulling overall deaths up.
To give people a frame of reference for how NC is doing compared to other states (Worldodata website):
1. NC is in the bottom 12 of all states when you look at deaths per 1 Million people. NC has the same number of deaths/1M as Texas, North Dakota, and Alaska with 11 deaths for every 1 Million people (Worldodata has NC at 107 total deaths).
2. The five worst states have at least 161 deaths per 1 Million people (Michigan). NY has 513, NJ has 275, Louisiana 190, and Connecticut has 168.
3. NC is in the bottom twelve when you look at cases per 1 Million people with 481 per 1 Million. I actually view this as a negative, since NC's testing rates have been too low. This is demonstrated by the fact that NC ranks in the bottom 12 when you look total tests per 1 Million people with 6,242 tests per 1 Million people.
1. NC is in the bottom 12 of all states when you look at deaths per 1 Million people. NC has the same number of deaths/1M as Texas, North Dakota, and Alaska with 11 deaths for every 1 Million people (Worldodata has NC at 107 total deaths).
2. The five worst states have at least 161 deaths per 1 Million people (Michigan). NY has 513, NJ has 275, Louisiana 190, and Connecticut has 168.
3. NC is in the bottom twelve when you look at cases per 1 Million people with 481 per 1 Million. I actually view this as a negative, since NC's testing rates have been too low. This is demonstrated by the fact that NC ranks in the bottom 12 when you look total tests per 1 Million people with 6,242 tests per 1 Million people.
WRAL has a map that you can click on to find out how many people are in assisted living facilities in each county. I added up the numbers listed and it came to 367 people. I will try to keep track of this number, assuming they keep the map updated.Wayland said:Daviewolf83 said:Mean predicted deaths for tomorrow is 110. I suspect the official NC numbers will be in the mid-90's.Wayland said:
WRAL has 100 deaths now. Weekend numbers coming in.
Well News and Observer now has it at 108. 19 deaths reported today... Or weekend lag. Still want to know congregate breakdown.
The sad thing is 80% of the deaths in NC are people aged 65+. If you assume the 367 people are in this age bracket (highly likely), it means the deaths from this population could be as high as 62 people (assumed CFR of 17% - avg taken from NY data). It could easily contribute to over half of the total deaths in NC.
I heard two things tonight about the nursing homes in NC that are very disappointing:
1. Only RNs in many of these facilities have been wearing PPE and other workers, such as CNAs have not been wearing PPE.
2. People being discharged from hospitals and moved to rehab facilities were not being routinely screened for Covid-19 before being admitted to the assisted living facility.
Like most who have contributed to this thread, I am very thankful for all the input and conversation. Our government has found yet another way to protect me in my rural WNC county with 3 cases of the virus (all of which have recovered). I am an avid outdoorsman. I like to take advantage of our vast public lands here in WNC, especially this time of year. Hiking, camping, fly fishing, etc. the Pisgah National Forest is my backyard, all 500,000+ acres. At what point does it make sense to keep Wal-Mart open while at the same time practically closing the great outdoors? I was pissed when they closed the Smokies, but have seen enough ignorant tourons in my life to at least be understanding to the reasons. But locking the gates on National Forest roads and shutting down dispersed roadside camping? Isn't that the very definition of social distancing? They've "closed" miles of hiking trails. Trust me, I've seen the parking lots at popular trailheads be overcrowded, but it's not like all of those people are headed to some confined space where they're all going to sit in teepee and pass a peace pipe. Sorry for the rant, but this is getting more and more out of control with the more positive data we get.
https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/nfsnc/news-events/?cid=FSEPRD724408&fbclid=IwAR2HhXR_ZKwSfFc7BbUlcfZiWLjMtenoMhUEXq5xohkRSLWqN57ftCr2TA4
https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/nfsnc/news-events/?cid=FSEPRD724408&fbclid=IwAR2HhXR_ZKwSfFc7BbUlcfZiWLjMtenoMhUEXq5xohkRSLWqN57ftCr2TA4
I agree with you. I just looked at the list of places closed by the part service and recognize so many places I also like to go hike, fly fish, and take landscape pictures. For example, they have closed the entire area around Linville Gorge, including access to the Gorge. They have closed some really good fly fishing areas near Brevard and the Wilson's Creek area with these orders and some beautiful hiking areas around Linville Gorge, Graveyard Fields, and Looking Glass Rock. Many of these places are the perfect example of social distancing. I have been to these areas and know how remote they are and how few people you are likely to encounter. I really do not understand the reasons for closing the trails and roads. I can understand closing visitor centers and other places where people would congregate, but so many of the places on the list are wide-open spaces.Everpack said:
Like most who have contributed to this thread, I am very thankful for all the input and conversation. Our government has found yet another way to protect me in my rural WNC county with 3 cases of the virus (all of which have recovered). I am an avid outdoorsman. I like to take advantage of our vast public lands here in WNC, especially this time of year. Hiking, camping, fly fishing, etc. the Pisgah National Forest is my backyard, all 500,000+ acres. At what point does it make sense to keep Wal-Mart open while at the same time practically closing the great outdoors? I was pissed when they closed the Smokies, but have seen enough ignorant tourons in my life to at least be understanding to the reasons. But locking the gates on National Forest roads and shutting down dispersed roadside camping? Isn't that the very definition of social distancing? They've "closed" miles of hiking trails. Trust me, I've seen the parking lots at popular trailheads be overcrowded, but it's not like all of those people are headed to some confined space where they're all going to sit in teepee and pass a peace pipe. Sorry for the rant, but this is getting more and more out of control with the more positive data we get.
https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/nfsnc/news-events/?cid=FSEPRD724408&fbclid=IwAR2HhXR_ZKwSfFc7BbUlcfZiWLjMtenoMhUEXq5xohkRSLWqN57ftCr2TA4
By the way, since these are Federal lands, they are under control of the Department of Interior, so the President can open these and the governor's have no say in the matter.
My brother in Wilmington sent me something that they are supposed to be reopening the boat ramps. Wilmington could probably confirm. Perhaps perspective is beginning to arrive in some places.
Yes. They eased some restrictions, so ramps can reopen. Beaches still closed. Some other restrictions lightened.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
Today and tomorrow are going to be key days for me in terms of total new cases and total deaths. You can clearly see a leveling off the past 3-5 days on new cases and even new deaths. Will that trend continue for another 2-3 days? If so, can we realistically say we have reached the peak truly and are heading down the slope? The next couple of days are critical and imo, the next 5-7 days are critical to see if the government has a plan in place to get things back on track with the economy.
Great points...and sounds like you have an awesome set up there (normally)Everpack said:
Like most who have contributed to this thread, I am very thankful for all the input and conversation. Our government has found yet another way to protect me in my rural WNC county with 3 cases of the virus (all of which have recovered). I am an avid outdoorsman. I like to take advantage of our vast public lands here in WNC, especially this time of year. Hiking, camping, fly fishing, etc. the Pisgah National Forest is my backyard, all 500,000+ acres. At what point does it make sense to keep Wal-Mart open while at the same time practically closing the great outdoors? I was pissed when they closed the Smokies, but have seen enough ignorant tourons in my life to at least be understanding to the reasons. But locking the gates on National Forest roads and shutting down dispersed roadside camping? Isn't that the very definition of social distancing? They've "closed" miles of hiking trails. Trust me, I've seen the parking lots at popular trailheads be overcrowded, but it's not like all of those people are headed to some confined space where they're all going to sit in teepee and pass a peace pipe. Sorry for the rant, but this is getting more and more out of control with the more positive data we get.
https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/nfsnc/news-events/?cid=FSEPRD724408&fbclid=IwAR2HhXR_ZKwSfFc7BbUlcfZiWLjMtenoMhUEXq5xohkRSLWqN57ftCr2TA4
I am supposed to go to Yellowstone and Grand Tetons this summer...which are also closed. Sounds counter-intuitive, but I understand that the concern is all the tourists coming in from all over the world and staying in places like West Yellowstone, Gardiner, Island Park, and Jackson, which have very few year-round residents, and almost no hospitals. So there is no infra if people coming in from London, England, Miami, and Beijing bring the virus with them and hand it off to locals at the local restaurants, etc.
NY is now reporting nursing home deaths. Deaths up today in NY to 778.
I was excited to plan a National Park vacation this summer. Hoping I can still do so in July or August, but there is too much uncertainty now.Packchem91 said:Great points...and sounds like you have an awesome set up there (normally)Everpack said:
Like most who have contributed to this thread, I am very thankful for all the input and conversation. Our government has found yet another way to protect me in my rural WNC county with 3 cases of the virus (all of which have recovered). I am an avid outdoorsman. I like to take advantage of our vast public lands here in WNC, especially this time of year. Hiking, camping, fly fishing, etc. the Pisgah National Forest is my backyard, all 500,000+ acres. At what point does it make sense to keep Wal-Mart open while at the same time practically closing the great outdoors? I was pissed when they closed the Smokies, but have seen enough ignorant tourons in my life to at least be understanding to the reasons. But locking the gates on National Forest roads and shutting down dispersed roadside camping? Isn't that the very definition of social distancing? They've "closed" miles of hiking trails. Trust me, I've seen the parking lots at popular trailheads be overcrowded, but it's not like all of those people are headed to some confined space where they're all going to sit in teepee and pass a peace pipe. Sorry for the rant, but this is getting more and more out of control with the more positive data we get.
https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/nfsnc/news-events/?cid=FSEPRD724408&fbclid=IwAR2HhXR_ZKwSfFc7BbUlcfZiWLjMtenoMhUEXq5xohkRSLWqN57ftCr2TA4
I am supposed to go to Yellowstone and Grand Tetons this summer...which are also closed. Sounds counter-intuitive, but I understand that the concern is all the tourists coming in from all over the world and staying in places like West Yellowstone, Gardiner, Island Park, and Jackson, which have very few year-round residents, and almost no hospitals. So there is no infra if people coming in from London, England, Miami, and Beijing bring the virus with them and hand it off to locals at the local restaurants, etc.
I agree that closing large outdoor recreation areas does not make any sense.
4/14/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/13/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)Wayland said:4/12/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)Wayland said:4/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:38am)Wayland said:4/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)Wayland said:Wayland said:4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc
3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157
4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204
4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184
4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)
NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259
Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.
15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)
2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.
NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271
Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?
Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.
NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261
Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age
4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270
NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354
Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.
The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.
NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987
NC Cases*
3651
NC Deaths**
65
Currently Hospitalized
398
Completed Tests
47809
Looks like deaths now align with media totals for the morning. 82% of deaths > 65
16 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care Facilities, 4 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.
NC Cases*
3908
NC Deaths**
74
Currently Hospitalized
423
Completed Tests
57645
A 2.5% positive test rate is insanely low.
23 Nursing Homes, 6 Residential Care Facilities, 5 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.
7 Additional nursing home since YESTERDAY (and 2 additional residential care). Just goes to show you how ineffective this has all been when we aren't actually protecting the most vulnerable. Time for a shift in strategy.
NC Cases*
4312
NC Deaths**
80
Currently Hospitalized
362
Completed Tests
60393
Hospitalizations down.
Media reporting 84 deaths (so still a gap in reporting there)
2 more Nursing Homes 1 more Residential to add to outbreaks.
NC Cases*
4520
NC Deaths**
81
Currently Hospitalized
331
Completed Tests
62139
NC Cases*
4816
NC Deaths**
86
Currently Hospitalized
313
Completed Tests
63,388
NC Cases*
5024
NC Deaths**
108
Currently Hospitalized
418
Completed Tests
65039
Now up to 30 nursing home outbreaks, 9 residential care, 6 correctional, and 1 other. Continues to explode here.
Looks like the official total death numbers are catching up with the media reporting with still some lag. Not sure you saw my earlier post, but based on the WRAL tracker there are at least 367 people in nursing homes affected and this number is likely higher, since their tracker has some blanks for some counties that have known cases. I would guess total nursing home cases are in excess of 400 and growing. Hospitalizations are up sharply which is likely due to the nursing home issue. Some cases will remain in the nursing homes, but those more severe cases are moving to hospitals. I found some data out of NY and averaged the CFR's of two groups above 65 years of age and came up with a CFR of 17% for people above the age of 65. I am continuing to look for better information on the CFR for the 65+ age group, since this is where I expect we will continue to see the bulk of the deaths.Wayland said:4/14/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/13/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)Wayland said:4/12/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)Wayland said:4/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:38am)Wayland said:4/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)Wayland said:Wayland said:4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc
3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157
4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204
4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184
4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)
NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259
Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.
15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)
2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.
NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271
Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?
Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.
NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261
Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age
4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270
NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354
Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.
The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.
NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987
NC Cases*
3651
NC Deaths**
65
Currently Hospitalized
398
Completed Tests
47809
Looks like deaths now align with media totals for the morning. 82% of deaths > 65
16 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care Facilities, 4 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.
NC Cases*
3908
NC Deaths**
74
Currently Hospitalized
423
Completed Tests
57645
A 2.5% positive test rate is insanely low.
23 Nursing Homes, 6 Residential Care Facilities, 5 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.
7 Additional nursing home since YESTERDAY (and 2 additional residential care). Just goes to show you how ineffective this has all been when we aren't actually protecting the most vulnerable. Time for a shift in strategy.
NC Cases*
4312
NC Deaths**
80
Currently Hospitalized
362
Completed Tests
60393
Hospitalizations down.
Media reporting 84 deaths (so still a gap in reporting there)
2 more Nursing Homes 1 more Residential to add to outbreaks.
NC Cases*
4520
NC Deaths**
81
Currently Hospitalized
331
Completed Tests
62139
NC Cases*
4816
NC Deaths**
86
Currently Hospitalized
313
Completed Tests
63,388
NC Cases*
5024
NC Deaths**
108
Currently Hospitalized
418
Completed Tests
65039
Now up to 30 nursing home outbreaks, 9 residential care, 6 correctional, and 1 other. Continues to explode here.
So what is going on in Henderson County? They are #3 county in the state for deaths with 7 according to NandO. They do have one congregate outbreak there (but theoretically only accounts for 25% of their cases).
Packchem91 said:Great points...and sounds like you have an awesome set up there (normally)Everpack said:
Like most who have contributed to this thread, I am very thankful for all the input and conversation. Our government has found yet another way to protect me in my rural WNC county with 3 cases of the virus (all of which have recovered). I am an avid outdoorsman. I like to take advantage of our vast public lands here in WNC, especially this time of year. Hiking, camping, fly fishing, etc. the Pisgah National Forest is my backyard, all 500,000+ acres. At what point does it make sense to keep Wal-Mart open while at the same time practically closing the great outdoors? I was pissed when they closed the Smokies, but have seen enough ignorant tourons in my life to at least be understanding to the reasons. But locking the gates on National Forest roads and shutting down dispersed roadside camping? Isn't that the very definition of social distancing? They've "closed" miles of hiking trails. Trust me, I've seen the parking lots at popular trailheads be overcrowded, but it's not like all of those people are headed to some confined space where they're all going to sit in teepee and pass a peace pipe. Sorry for the rant, but this is getting more and more out of control with the more positive data we get.
https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/nfsnc/news-events/?cid=FSEPRD724408&fbclid=IwAR2HhXR_ZKwSfFc7BbUlcfZiWLjMtenoMhUEXq5xohkRSLWqN57ftCr2TA4
I am supposed to go to Yellowstone and Grand Tetons this summer...which are also closed. Sounds counter-intuitive, but I understand that the concern is all the tourists coming in from all over the world and staying in places like West Yellowstone, Gardiner, Island Park, and Jackson, which have very few year-round residents, and almost no hospitals. So there is no infra if people coming in from London, England, Miami, and Beijing bring the virus with them and hand it off to locals at the local restaurants, etc.
Not to derail the thread, but just because the Tetons and Yellowstone Parks are closed should not deter you from making that trip. You can see the Tetons by driving by and just spending a few nights in Jackson Hole. Making a trip by driving a circle around Yellowstone would be just as enjoyable as the park. Towns like Cody, Dubois, Red Lodge, Livingston, Bozeman, Ennis, and Dillon have more than enough stuff to do and see without the tourist trap that is Yellowstone. I go out every summer and only go into Yellowstone because it's there. Shoot me a PM if you want more specific ideas.
Now, back to trying to make sense of shutting down national forests in a state where 0.05% of the population has tested positive and about 3% of all positive cases are in the counties where said national forests exist.
Today could be a peak day for deaths in the U.S. Some numbers coming in high today.
EDIT: Michigan over 100 and NJ just reported 365. Definite peak coming. NJ's number is lag data per governor.
EDIT: Michigan over 100 and NJ just reported 365. Definite peak coming. NJ's number is lag data per governor.
Wayland said:
NY is now reporting nursing home deaths. Deaths up today in NY to 778.
What is the reasoning for not reporting those beforehand?
RunsWithWolves26 said:Wayland said:
NY is now reporting nursing home deaths. Deaths up today in NY to 778.
What is the reasoning for not reporting those beforehand?
No idea. I mean has been obvious for a while now that nursing homes are a major issue, France started reporting deaths separately well before anyone in the U.S. took any real notice. I think it is now the new 'hot topic', even though government and media are way late to the party.
Maybe he wants to continue with the positive news with the expectations that hospital deaths will continue to drop even in the face of the death traps that nursing homes and other congregate facilities have become.
Interesting is that part of it advances the theory that most cases originate by people being close together for a significant period of time, so lock downs may have also created a short spike by locking ill down with otherwise healthy. And otherwise originating these cases IN hospitals rather in open.
But again, at this point, we must acknowledge that these holding tanks for the elderly and infirm with barely passable care are where we are going to see the next real surge of deaths.
"holding tanks... With barely passable care." Lol. That's gold right there. I'm gonna use that one. So true in so many instances.
Charlotte continues to push out when the peak will be, now in June? And haven't begun putting together field hospital that they say will be needed.
They need to figure out something because keeping people at home for 3+ months isn't feasible and you will have millions unemployed just in NC, last week it was 500k already.
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article242000486.html?Quote:
PEAK EXPECTED IN JUNE
More than half of reported cases have been released from isolation. The county public health department expects patients will overwhelm the county health care system in early to mid-May, even with increased social distancing, Harris said.
The county is seeing 40% to 50% social distancing, putting the peak demand for hospital beds on June 8, Harris said. The county expects to need 2,579 hospital beds on June 8, she said.
The county has 255 ICU beds available, Harris said. But with a peak on June 8, the county predicts 1,143 ICU beds would be needed.
And the county expects to see a peak in daily demand for ventilators on June 8 with a demand of 574. The county currently has 243 available ventilators, Harris said.
They need to figure out something because keeping people at home for 3+ months isn't feasible and you will have millions unemployed just in NC, last week it was 500k already.
I'd love to see where they are getting their data, I mean state hospitalization rate has been pretty stable between 300-400 the last week or so. What is going to happen in the next two weeks?statefan91 said:
Charlotte continues to push out when the peak will be, now in June? And haven't begun putting together field hospital that they say will be needed.https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article242000486.html?Quote:
PEAK EXPECTED IN JUNE
More than half of reported cases have been released from isolation. The county public health department expects patients will overwhelm the county health care system in early to mid-May, even with increased social distancing, Harris said.
The county is seeing 40% to 50% social distancing, putting the peak demand for hospital beds on June 8, Harris said. The county expects to need 2,579 hospital beds on June 8, she said.
The county has 255 ICU beds available, Harris said. But with a peak on June 8, the county predicts 1,143 ICU beds would be needed.
And the county expects to see a peak in daily demand for ventilators on June 8 with a demand of 574. The county currently has 243 available ventilators, Harris said.
They need to figure out something because keeping people at home for 3+ months isn't feasible and you will have millions unemployed just in NC, last week it was 500k already.
They wanted to build a $70,000,000 field hospital in Charlotte? Have they lost their minds?
statefan91 said:
Charlotte continues to push out when the peak will be, now in June? And haven't begun putting together field hospital that they say will be needed.https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article242000486.html?Quote:
PEAK EXPECTED IN JUNE
More than half of reported cases have been released from isolation. The county public health department expects patients will overwhelm the county health care system in early to mid-May, even with increased social distancing, Harris said.
The county is seeing 40% to 50% social distancing, putting the peak demand for hospital beds on June 8, Harris said. The county expects to need 2,579 hospital beds on June 8, she said.
The county has 255 ICU beds available, Harris said. But with a peak on June 8, the county predicts 1,143 ICU beds would be needed.
And the county expects to see a peak in daily demand for ventilators on June 8 with a demand of 574. The county currently has 243 available ventilators, Harris said.
They need to figure out something because keeping people at home for 3+ months isn't feasible and you will have millions unemployed just in NC, last week it was 500k already.
Huh? What the hell is she looking at?
New cases by week in Meck Co:
3/25-3/31: 278 new cases, 39.7 new reported cases per day
4/1-4/7: 390 new cases, 55.7 new reported cases per day
4/8-4/14: 183 new cases, 26.1 new reported cases per day
So again... what exactly are we seeing that suggests even with social distancing, this will peak in June... makes zero ****ing sense to me and I stare at numbers all day long.
I watched their brief (the modelling is about 30 mins in https://mecklenburg.ravnur.com/live/BOCC). I think they are using this model https://penn-chime.phl.io/ and putting in their own inputs as laypeople and I assume not actually peer reviewing or having any actual stats experts look at this.acslater1344 said:statefan91 said:
Charlotte continues to push out when the peak will be, now in June? And haven't begun putting together field hospital that they say will be needed.https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article242000486.html?Quote:
PEAK EXPECTED IN JUNE
More than half of reported cases have been released from isolation. The county public health department expects patients will overwhelm the county health care system in early to mid-May, even with increased social distancing, Harris said.
The county is seeing 40% to 50% social distancing, putting the peak demand for hospital beds on June 8, Harris said. The county expects to need 2,579 hospital beds on June 8, she said.
The county has 255 ICU beds available, Harris said. But with a peak on June 8, the county predicts 1,143 ICU beds would be needed.
And the county expects to see a peak in daily demand for ventilators on June 8 with a demand of 574. The county currently has 243 available ventilators, Harris said.
They need to figure out something because keeping people at home for 3+ months isn't feasible and you will have millions unemployed just in NC, last week it was 500k already.
Huh? What the hell is she looking at?
New cases by week in Meck Co:
3/25-3/31: 278 new cases, 39.7 new reported cases per day
4/1-4/7: 390 new cases, 55.7 new reported cases per day
4/8-4/14: 183 new cases, 26.1 new reported cases per day
So again... what exactly are we seeing that suggests even with social distancing, this will peak in June... makes zero ****ing sense to me and I stare at numbers all day long.
I am almost sure this is what they are using because they said they estimate 40-50% social distancing and you can play with that number and see the dramatic impact it makes in the model. They can't just use a model and take it as fact without really understanding the parameters.
If this is the case with regards to Charlotte, social distancing has been a complete failure for that city and they need to figure out why. Currently, the growth of daily new cases in NC is linear (in other words - "flat"). This is even with the growth of cases from nursing homes and why I have said if it was not for the nursing home issue, new daily cases would now be declining.Wayland said:I'd love to see where they are getting their data, I mean state hospitalization rate has been pretty stable between 300-400 the last week or so. What is going to happen in the next two weeks?statefan91 said:
Charlotte continues to push out when the peak will be, now in June? And haven't begun putting together field hospital that they say will be needed.https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article242000486.html?Quote:
PEAK EXPECTED IN JUNE
More than half of reported cases have been released from isolation. The county public health department expects patients will overwhelm the county health care system in early to mid-May, even with increased social distancing, Harris said.
The county is seeing 40% to 50% social distancing, putting the peak demand for hospital beds on June 8, Harris said. The county expects to need 2,579 hospital beds on June 8, she said.
The county has 255 ICU beds available, Harris said. But with a peak on June 8, the county predicts 1,143 ICU beds would be needed.
And the county expects to see a peak in daily demand for ventilators on June 8 with a demand of 574. The county currently has 243 available ventilators, Harris said.
They need to figure out something because keeping people at home for 3+ months isn't feasible and you will have millions unemployed just in NC, last week it was 500k already.
They wanted to build a $70,000,000 field hospital in Charlotte? Have they lost their minds?
I have a hard time believing any city in NC needs a field hospital, given current hospitalization levels. Currently, there are 7,591 available inpatient beds and 873 available ICU beds in NC. Additionally, there are 2,209 respirators available in NC. I suspect the jump today was due to a lag in reporting and the nursing home effect. Until today, the number hospitalized had declined three out of four previous days.
Additionally, I expect total deaths to fall well behind the projected curve in the next two days, unless something catastrophic happens. Today's official numbers are just below the projection (by 2 deaths) and in two days the projection is 145 total deaths. I find this number to be highly unlikely when the actual numbers come in.
Logarithmic Plot of Daily New Cases
Watch the meeting, look at the model, and see how clueless these people are. They should not be allowed access to that website.
This is the note on the top of that model site:
"Notice: There is a high degree of uncertainty about the details of COVID-19 infection, transmission, and the effectiveness of social distancing measures. Long-term projections made using this simplified model of outbreak progression should be treated with extreme caution."
This is the note on the top of that model site:
"Notice: There is a high degree of uncertainty about the details of COVID-19 infection, transmission, and the effectiveness of social distancing measures. Long-term projections made using this simplified model of outbreak progression should be treated with extreme caution."
I just tweeted this to Alison Kuznitz who is one of the Charlotte Observer writers who is covering this in Charlotte:Wayland said:
Watch the meeting, look at the model, and see how clueless these people are. They should not be allowed access to that website.
This is the note on the top of that model site:
"Notice: There is a high degree of uncertainty about the details of COVID-19 infection, transmission, and the effectiveness of social distancing measures. Long-term projections made using this simplified model of outbreak progression should be treated with extreme caution."
I wish Daviewolf was in charge of leading us through this pandemic. He actually understands the data, unlike some of the leaders across our state.
I posted the article but have no idea where they're getting these numbers from. And they're not going to be in good shape if they keep locking people down and fear mongering like this.
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