Some UNC System numbers... 123 patients overall, 37 in ICU... Admission numbers appear to be lower so far this week than last week (so far)

We've got 59 admitted, 9 in ICU, 6 tubed

At cone health: 29252 tests, 1495 positive, 27342 negative

Half that number in ICU 10 days ago

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When we hit 1000 WRAL will probably throw a party.

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Sad but 100% true...

I feel like some of this rant could be used to discuss COVID....

What are we doing? WHAT ARE WE DOING!?!?
And the Brazil reference lol.

I don't know if Covid is causing brain damage, but it is definitely affecting people mentally. Between it and everything else going on in the country, I'm personally experiencing more interactions with people who are just not being nice. In my business, I've had more complaints in the last three weeks than I've had in the previous three years. I've personally noticed that my temper has been quick to flare, and I've found myself getting fairly mad at mundane situations. I already deal with anxiety problems, and I didn't think it was any worse, but it's possible that it is. I see lots of people like myself, out here, working, going through the motions, but the cloud of uncertainty is thick. The psychological affects of the virus, the lockdown, and the rest will be interesting to study if anyone takes the time. I know that it's been particularly bad on the elderly. My grandmother, who is 95, is used to having a steady stream of visitors in her home to talk to, and that obviously hasn't been happening for some time, and she's become melancholy. My business partner's mom is in a long term care facility with dementia, and even though he goes and sees her and talks to her through the window on the phone most days, she lacks the cognitive ability to put 2 and 2 together that it is him she's on the phone with. Her caregivers have called him several times recently because she was distraught and crying and couldn't understand why her family couldn't come see her. It's a part of this thing that I haven't seen discussed much, but there is definitely an impact beyond the medical and financial aspects.

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There are many of us that have probably already "had" it and didn't even know...

Screw all the medical research money at this point and just put it into a national mental health resource.

Hell, if school is remote, fire all the teachers. Hire a centralized 'Khan Academy' like resource and have the best of the best put together lectures. Hire full time tutors as a centralized resource for grading or when kids need to reach out for help. And put the saved money into mental health.

Wife and I both tested positive. Doing everything possible to prevent our 4 week old from getting sick.

Ugh. Scary. Has to be terrifying with such a young child. Your family is in my thoughts.

Awful situation, especially with a 4 week old. I hope that you guys are able to get the support to care for the little one and keep them safe.

Wishing you a speedy recovery..

luckily I'm feeling fine after a couple days of feeling Bad a couple weeks ago. My wife has a nagging cough that she's had for about 4-5 days and hasn't had smell/taste since Saturday. Baby hasn't shown any symptoms and we're getting her tested this afternoon. None of us have had a fever.

My step mom is at Wayne after testing positive and her O2 sat dropped. Currently off mask and to cannula and sats haven't dropped.

I'm thinking I should get an antibody test. The past 3 weeks I've been really, really tired, falling asleep on our couch around 10:00 PM. I thought I was working out too much (nothing else to do) or not sleeping enough.
However, I feel much more energetic since yesterday. I also saw the Atlanta mayor got tested after her husband was excessively tired and both were positive.

If I did have it, I guess I got off lucky

TopsailWolf said:

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luckily I'm feeling fine after a couple days of feeling Bad a couple weeks ago. My wife has a nagging cough that she's had for about 4-5 days and hasn't had smell/taste since Saturday. Baby hasn't shown any symptoms and we're getting her tested this afternoon. None of us have had a fever.

My step mom is at Wayne after testing positive and her O2 sat dropped. Currently off mask and to cannula and sats haven't dropped.

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Really sorry to hear about you and your wife. Hopefully the baby is not infected and it stays this way. I hope your wife is able to get over her cough and her sense of smell/taste returns. I am not sure if that is a permanent issue with Covid or if smell/taste do return. Also, I really hope your step mother is able to recover and get out of the hospital soon.

Since the case reporting is starting to show some increased lag between when the specimens are taken and the publishing of the case results, I will post a daily chart that shows the distribution of the daily announced cases based on the date of the specimen. For example, in the chart below you can see the cases announced today (1,435 new cases) are from specimens taken over 10 days ago in some cases and the largest single date was 8 days ago.

Cases Announced on 7/8 by Specimen Date:

The problem with this kind of case lag, is that people aren't being notified in a prompt manner if they are testing positive and may not isolate without that test result. Hopefully someone would take proper precautions when waiting on a result.

I know some of the blame is falling on the labs or resource shortages here, but still you want test results to come back in a meaningful timeframe.

Will be interesting if tomorrow will have the "Cooper Effect" on case lag reporting, since it is the most likely day this week that he will speak.

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The problem with this kind of case lag, is that people aren't being notified in a prompt manner if they are testing positive and may not isolate without that test result. Hopefully someone would take proper precautions when waiting on a result.

I know some of the blame is falling on the labs or resource shortages here, but still you want test results to come back in a meaningful timeframe.

Will be interesting if tomorrow will have the "Cooper Effect" on case lag reporting, since it is the most likely day this week that he will speak.

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I agree and this is my fear. People need to be quarantining after being tested, until their test results are known. I doubt many are doing this and it could lead to spread. Additionally, it can delay treatment for people waiting for results. Hopefully, they can get back to turning results back around in 3-5 days.

Updated UNC Hospitals numbers for 7/8... 130 patients, 37 in the ICU... Rex (33 total and 11 ICU) and UNC-CH (28 total and 11 ICU) with the most patients in the network...

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The problem with this kind of case lag, is that people aren't being notified in a prompt manner if they are testing positive and may not isolate without that test result. Hopefully someone would take proper precautions when waiting on a result.

I know some of the blame is falling on the labs or resource shortages here, but still you want test results to come back in a meaningful timeframe.

Will be interesting if tomorrow will have the "Cooper Effect" on case lag reporting, since it is the most likely day this week that he will speak.

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I agree and this is my fear. People need to be quarantining after being tested, until their test results are known. I doubt many are doing this and it could lead to spread. Additionally, it can delay treatment for people waiting for results. Hopefully, they can get back to turning results back around in 3-5 days.

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You think the actual tests are taking that long, or just the aggregation and data reporting? Surely the tests aren't taking this long again. Took 12 days for me back in mid-March and it was annoying, but I knew I was positive once the flu came back negative. Now they are testing with less requirements, it's imperative to get the results to the patients as quickly as possible for quarantine, like you both highlight.

It is the processing of tests by the labs. Cohen has started referencing the lag time in getting results from labs in briefings and interviews lately. There may be some additional lag in reporting, but if DHHS is saying it out loud then they must be concerned enough about it as well.

The antibody test for me took less than a day to get results.

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The problem with this kind of case lag, is that people aren't being notified in a prompt manner if they are testing positive and may not isolate without that test result. Hopefully someone would take proper precautions when waiting on a result.

I know some of the blame is falling on the labs or resource shortages here, but still you want test results to come back in a meaningful timeframe.

Will be interesting if tomorrow will have the "Cooper Effect" on case lag reporting, since it is the most likely day this week that he will speak.

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I agree and this is my fear. People need to be quarantining after being tested, until their test results are known. I doubt many are doing this and it could lead to spread. Additionally, it can delay treatment for people waiting for results. Hopefully, they can get back to turning results back around in 3-5 days.

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You think the actual tests are taking that long, or just the aggregation and data reporting? Surely the tests aren't taking this long again. Took 12 days for me back in mid-March and it was annoying, but I knew I was positive once the flu came back negative. Now they are testing with less requirements, it's imperative to get the results to the patients as quickly as possible for quarantine, like you both highlight.

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It is due more to backlogs in the labs and not delays in reporting. I am sure there could a lag in reporting of a day or two, but most of the current lag is coming from increased testing that is using more of the available capacity (machines, people, testing supplies).

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6/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1343
Currently Hospitalized
908 <- 90% reporting (was 843 at 75% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
910,033

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804 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
146 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

393 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
950 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

216 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
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WRAL is at 1366* deaths

1186 positive cases over 23,728 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

DHHS says they only added 18,676 completed tests, but the actual delta is 23,728 since yesterday.

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7/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
66,513
NC Deaths
1373
Currently Hospitalized
901 <- 86% reporting (was 908 at 90% yesterday) Lower#, Lower%. Still stable
Completed Tests
942,238

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819 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
147 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

407 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
966 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

212 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
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WRAL is at 1376* deaths

1843 positive cases over 32,205 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.

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7/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
68,142
NC Deaths
1391
Currently Hospitalized
912 <- 93% reporting (was 901 at 86% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
971,120

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826 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
149 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

416 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
975 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
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WRAL is at 1400* deaths

1629 positive cases over 28,882 new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

After what Cohen said last night I was worried about hospitalizations, but still pretty stable. One of the highest reporting percent EVER and still staying stable!

Date of Death for today's adds: 6/30(10), 6/28, 6/26, 6/19, 6/15, 6/13, 6/5(2) and one missing.

Hopefully all these outbreaks are just catching staff and before they get bad.

Nothing out of the ordinary in the location data. Just happened to be a day where all the major players had deaths reported the same day (Meck, Wake, Durham, Guilford, Forsyth). Have to make sure to get it in before the weekend.

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7/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
70,241
NC Deaths
1392
Currently Hospitalized
951 <- 89% reporting (was 912 at 93% yesterday) Higher#, Lower# Big jump
Completed Tests
999,293


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821 Deaths are now Congregate (-5)
152 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
973 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (-2)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
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WRAL is at 1417* deaths

2099 positive cases over 28,173 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.

Huge jump in cases and hospitalizations. Would love to have more details on this since surveillance is showing less admits last week. Longer stays?

I can't make sense out of today's deaths. -5 Congregate and +1 overall. Really should identify a data correction.

All kinds of oddness in this holiday data dump. I think I found one of the issues with data. Buncombe lost 9 deaths from their count from yesterday. That should be addressed if you are going to make a change like that. I expect that was user error and those 9 plus at least 1 more will get added back in soon.

Some of the case highlights.
Durham had its first day of over 100 reported cases at 110.
Johnston 71
Gaston 82 cases
Meck 430
New Hanover 81
Wake 198

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7/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
71,654
NC Deaths
1395
Currently Hospitalized
945 <- 86% reporting (was 951 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,018,296


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822 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
154 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
976 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

230 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
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WRAL is at 1420* deaths

1413 positive cases over 19003 new tests. 7.4% positive rate.

So 18 congregate outbreaks the last 2 days. That number is skyrocketing. Not bad if they are catching staff early, let's hope.

Another weird day with deaths.

Deaths were DELETED on 7/4:
5/31, 6/19, 6/30

Deaths were ADDED on 7/4:
6/28, 6/29, 7/2(4)

County downloadable data hasn't been added yet, so I can't find the deltas.

On a fun because media likes to spout random day stats. This is actually the lowest number of reported cases on a Saturday in a month! (Not that it is helpful)

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7/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
72,983
NC Deaths
1396
Currently Hospitalized
949 <- 78% reporting (was 945 at 86% yesterday) Expect a jump early next week.
Completed Tests
1,036,838


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822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

231 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
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WRAL is at 1425* deaths

1329 positive cases over 18542 new tests. 7.2% positive rate.

County level data download never posted yesterday, so will have to pick that back up as it gets cleaned up next week.

Not much to look at today. Hospitalizations up a little with a lower reporting percent. Something to keep an eye on.

I expect a huge case dump early next week. It looks like the state is almost a full week behind on most of its case reporting. So remember as the case data starts to come out the next few days that it is a week lagged.

I also expect a death correction next week to get us back in line with the ~15 deaths a day we have been running on.

County data posted. Deaths removed yesterday were from Guilford, Robeson, and Wilson.

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7/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
74,529
NC Deaths
1398
Currently Hospitalized
982 <- 81% reporting (was 949 at 78% yesterday) New High.
Completed Tests
1,051,846


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822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

421 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+0)

233 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
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WRAL is at 1426* deaths

1546 positive cases over 15,008 new tests. 10.3% positive rate.

Expect a bit of a death correction the next 2 days.

Hospitalizations new high. WE NEED MORE INFO HERE.

Positive rate is high, this is likely because of which tests are being reported. Been trending high on the post weekend low reporting days, will dip again when all the tests come in.

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7/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
75,875
NC Deaths
1420
Currently Hospitalized
989 <- 89% reporting (was 982 at 81% yesterday) New high, but higher percent reported.
Completed Tests
1,071,290


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828 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
161 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

431 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
989 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

239 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
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WRAL is at 1438* deaths

1346 positive cases over 19444 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

I still feel like case data is really lagging at this point and we are a week behind on a lot, maybe Davie has more insight into this.

Dates of Deaths reported today.
6/7, 6/11, 6/17, 6/20, 6/23. 6/25, 6/26, 6/30, 7/1(2), 7/3(4), 7/4(5), 7/5(2), 7/6.

Most likely sources of lagged deaths Robeson 4, Wilson 4, Wake 3.

I expect tomorrow's catch up day, to give us a much clearer picture as to where we are on this.

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7/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
77,310
NC Deaths
1441
Currently Hospitalized
994 <- 89% reporting (was 989 at 89% yesterday) New high, same percent reported.
Completed Tests
1,096,682


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835 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
165 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

441 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1000 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

244 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
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WRAL is at 1459* deaths

1435 positive cases over 25392 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.

I know it is silly, but this is the 100th day in a row that I have posted a DHHS update. I think they should just pay me at this point.

New high hospitalizations. When we hit 1000 WRAL will probably throw a party.

Cases still not high, still waiting the case dump. Deaths still in range for midweek dump. Now to dig into the data. Most of the deaths fill in this week. There are 4 or so what were greater than 2 weeks old or not accounted for.

Side note: The 7 day rolling average of deaths by date of reporting (NOT date of death) is the lowest since April 16.

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7/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
79,349
NC Deaths
1461
Currently Hospitalized
1034 <- 86% reporting (was 994 at 89% yesterday) New High
Completed Tests
1,121,811


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844 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
171 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

446 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
1015 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

250 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
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WRAL is at 1468* deaths

2039 positive cases over 25129 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

And there is the Thursday Cooper effect with the case backlog. Remember this is aggregated and in many cases over a week old data.

Re: Hospitalizations. Will be interesting to see CLI this afternoon.

Deaths by Date of Death Reported Today:
6/1, 6/4, 6/14, 6/19, 6/21, 6/25(2), 6/29(2), 7/1(2), 7/2, 7/3, 7/4, 7/6, 7/7(6), 7/8(2)
6/23 had a death removed.

Good bit of backlog in the deaths today with almost half of them coming in June.

The cases announced today are from samples taken over the past 10+ days. Due to the amount of testing being done and impact on testing capacity, it appears to be still be causing an increased lag in data reporting. The largest single day for cases so far is 6/30 with 2,095 cases. The average number of daily cases for June was 1,427.

Wayland said:

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Interesting that they got a good chunk of Monday's testing into today's numbers when there had been a lot of lag.

Like I said, the 'Cooper Effect'. Will be able to use the aggregated reporting in today's briefing. And I pre-quote "A new high in hospitalizations and the second highest day of reported cases yet!"

Edit: I was so close to what he actually did say in the briefing.

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LOL. You called it. Did he say anything about any of the numbers that continue to improve? And I'm sure there was no context added for a near record 25,129 tests reported today either...

To step away from NC for a moment back to random AB study. New Delhi is reporting 15% AB seroprevalence. I haven't watched their situation closely, but knowing just how many people are there it is interesting to see. They may be pretty far along in their curve.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Delhi/initial-results-of-survey-show-high-seroprevalence-in-delhi-officials/article32025471.ece

I have a couple of questions for the smart ones on this board. CDC saying the virus us more airborne then previously thought. Does that make it more contagious or less with it having to travel through air? Also, with the cases going up but deaths going down, does that mean this virus is actually less deadly then originally thought or that it's already killed the most at risk it something else? If deaths over, let's say, the next 3 weeks, continue to trend down and say there are less then 300 deaths per day, what does that mean for the country as a whole as it pertains to doing different activities? I will hang up and look forward to hearing the responses to these because I truly don't know the answers to these questions.

I posted this in a thread on the alpha wolf rising board, but wanted to post here as well as many on this thread have discussed anti body testing:

For those wanting to get tested for antibodies, the Red Cross is testing every donation they receive for free. I went last week and it wasn't bad. Donated blood, got my anti bodies test (negative ), and got a free shirt and a pizza coupon. Overall a great experience I would recommend to others