Thanks for posting. Really good information here. Excited for the season to get here and get the Pack 9 rolling to Omaha!CLTWolf said:
From Aaron Fitt and D1 baseball...
2022 Fall Report: NC State
FALL REPORT Aaron Fitt - October 17, 2022
DURHAM, N.C. For NC State, 2022 was a season of "what-ifs". What if the Division I Baseball Committee had not shockingly snubbed the Wolfpack on Selection Monday? Could NC State have made another run to Omaha? It certainly had the offensive firepower, and it seemed to be getting hot again at the perfect time, just as it did prior to its 2021 run to the CWS.
And what if preseason All-America ace Sam Highfill hadn't gotten injured? With a healthy Highfill, the Wolfpack surely would not have found itself anywhere near the bubble on Memorial Day.
All of that is history now; NC State has moved on, setting its sights on 2023 with an overhauled roster that should be plenty capable of making another postseason run. But the Highfill question lingers. After missing more than half of last spring with a back injury, Highfill has spent the summer and fall rehabbing, and he is the greatest X-factor for NC State heading into next season. We saw what he's capable of in 2021, when he starred on the mound during that Omaha run. If Highfill and fellow veteran righty Matt Willadsen (who is working his way back from hip labrum surgery) can return to peak form, it dramatically improves NC State's outlook for 2023, giving the 'Pack two proven workhorse starters to build the staff around. But with both of them sidelined this fall, it hasn't been easy to gauge how the pieces on this pitching staff will all fit together.
"We really haven't been able to identify what roles a lot depends on Sam and Willadsen. Obviously if they come back, that's starting roles for them," NC State coach Elliott Avent said. "Willadsen will start throwing bullpens soon, he had the labrum surgery with the hip, it went very, very well, got that over with, has rehabbed very hard. Right now he's ahead of schedule, knock on wood, so that is good. Highfill we just continue to rest him and get him stronger. If we have those two guys this spring, which we feel like we will, then obviously we know what those two are capable of doing."
NC State has another established weekend starter back in righthander Logan Whitaker, who made 14 starts and logged 66.2 innings last year. Pitching coach Clint Chrysler said Whitaker had a strong fall, and he figures to improve upon last year's 2-4, 4.73 mark. He figures to be a staple of the weekend rotation, which would be very experienced and formidable if it also includes Highfill and Willadsen.
Ideally, that trio would comprise the weekend rotation, which allows NC State to use newcomers Rio Britton and P.J. Labriola out of the bullpen or as midweek starters, depending upon need. Britton has been a stable in Oregon's bullpen for the last two years, emerging as one of the Ducks' key go-to guys during last year's run to regionals. He's an unflappable lefthander whose calling card is his ability to spin a very good low-80s slider that he can land for a strike or use as a chase, but he also spots up well with a fastball that sat 88-91 with good sink in his scoreless two-inning stint against Duke at the end of fall ball. Labriola, an imposing 6-foot-7, 214-pound lefthander, never put it all together in three years at Clemson, logging just 19.2 innings combined, but he looked good this summer in the Cape Cod League and struck out five in his two innings against Duke. Labriola works downhill from a high slot and showed more velocity in our fall look (90-92) than we saw from him this summer (87-90). His 81-83 slider has improved, and he has very good feel for a tumbling changeup in the same velocity range. That duo bolsters a group of lefthanders that also includes David Miralia, Win Scott, Jacob Dienes, Tristan Sipple and Garrett Moffett, who all combined to pitch just 16.1 innings last year. The Wolfpack would love for a couple of arms in that group to take steps forward and assume bigger roles; the only one who pitched against Duke was Miralia, who located at 87-89 and leaned heavily on a quality 75-77 m ph curveball that he can land for a strike or use as an out pitch.
NC State also returns some quality veteran pieces that likely fit best in the bullpen, including righties Justin Lawson, Garrett Payne, Carson Kelly and Baker Nelson. Lawson posted a 3.82 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 27.2 innings over 19 appearances last year, and he should remain Mr. Dependable in a bridge role this spring. He saw 90-92 with above-average spin rates in the 2400s along with a good 81-83 slider against Duke. Kelly is a wily slot-shifter who attacked at 89-91 with a useful 82 mph slider from a high slot, then dropped down to sidearm and attacked at 86-87 with a 73 mph Frisbee slider. The 6-foot-7 Payne stands out for his angle, which makes his fastball play up, and he's had some good moments over the last two years, but the Wolfpack is looking for more consistency out of him this spring. He could also factor into the starting mix. Nelson, a fifth-year senior, got off to a hot start in 2020 (1.93 ERA with a 7-1 K-BB mark in 9.1 IP) but has not been able to maintain that success over the last two years, and the Wolfpack is hoping he can put it all together and become a bullpen stable this spring. He has a short arm action with some funk and deception in his delivery, and he showed 90-92 mph velocity against Duke, but we've seen a tick more heat from him in the past.
Another returning righty, Jacob Halford, is the big breakout pick to click on this staff. A slender 6-foot-3, 181-pounder with a quick high three-quarters arm action, Halford showed some of the best stuff in the Duke scrimmage, attacking at 92-94 with good arm-side run and mixing in an 81-83 slider with sharp tilt and a big downer curve at 78 with tight spin. He and Britton seem like the strongest candidates to push for weekend starter roles, especially if Highfill and Willadsen suffer any setbacks.
"Jacob Halford had a really big fall for us, after he didn't pitch last year," Avent said. "He was not hurt, just wasn't gonna pitch that much so didn't want to waste a year. He's different right now, he had a good summer, went out and pitched, and gained a tremendous amount of confidence. I think he grew up some last year in college, I think college can be a little overwhelming and overwhemled him at times last year. Now he has a handle on things, I think you're gonna see some things from him."
A few other newcomers to watch on the mound: freshmen Andrew Shaffner, Everette Harris, Derrick Smith and Luke Fritton plus transfer Creed Watkins. Shaffner is an exciting talent, a projectable 6-foot-2 righty who sat 93-95 with elite spin rates into the 2500-2600s against Duke, along with tight spin in his 80-83 slider and the makings of a three-quarters curveball in the mid-70s. He might be a year away from a pitchability and maturation standpoint, but his future is bright, and if he can harness his ability early on he could push for innings. Harris is a three-quarters sinkerballer who worked in the high 80s with a 78 mph slurve against Duke. The lean, athletic Fritton has a clean high three-quarters delivery that produced 89-91 mph heat against Duke, along with a useful slow curve at 73 and a changeup at 83. Smith and Watkins did not pitch at Duke but should bring some power stuff to the mix, as NC State says Smith can pitch at 90-93 with a promising slider and changeup, while Watkins has a bazooka arm that produced mid-90s heat and touched 99 in the Draft League this summer.
Offense Will Pack A Punch, As Always
Year-in and year-out, NC State always hits that's a given. This year will be no exception.
Even after the defection of Tommy White to LSU and the departures of Devonte Brown and Josh Hood to pro ball, NC State returns abundant firepower in the lineup, which should now be anchored by Gino Groover, Dominic Pilolli and another outstanding group of transfers. Pilolli had a solid first year at NCSU after transferring from Charlotte, though he was coming off knee surgery and was still working his way back to full strength Avent noticed he was not running and cutting with complete confidence down the stretch last year, and the Wolfpack is trying to ease him along this fall, so he did not play in the field at Duke, but he did hit. And he put on a show in batting practice, continuing to showcase his enormous lefthanded power potential. Look for a big jump in power production from him after he slugged nine homers last spring.
Groover led the team with a .364 average last year, adding 10 homers and 16 doubles, then spent some time with Team USA this summer. The big development with him this fall is his transition from first base to third, where he showed surprising agility and functional range, actions and arm strength this fall. If he can hold down the hot corner, it allows NC State to maximize its offensive potential by putting another big bat in the lineup at first. Groover has All-America potential, a proven hitter for average who continues to grow into big righthanded power, as he showed with a moonshot homer to left against Duke.
"His work ethic, he's a guy that played some with USA this summer, then the rest of the summer went home and got faster, stronger and better. He did a heck of a job at third base this fall. I'm very comfortable with him at third now," Avent said. "He came in as a second baseman, first baseman, played a little outfield. But we had Josh Hood and Payton Green on the left side last year so we didn't really explore that. The first time I saw it was this summer, coach Mike Bianco told Gino to go to third and take some ground balls. "I'm like, 'Damn Mike, that looks pretty good, I'd never put him over there.' He worked his tail off this summer. He's one of those players who takes practice for practice. he's not a guy who comes and stays at practice, he works at practice."
Green, meanwhile, started out last year at shortstop as a true freshmen but struggled at the demanding position, then swapped spots with Hood (who started out at third). He settled in at the hot corner and gained plenty of valuable experience, then worked hard in the summer, putting on about 14 pounds according to Avent. He also looked much more at home at shortstop, where he has the physical tools to be a stalwart.
"He came in with a lot of extra confidence this year, putting weight on, a year older," Avent said. "He had a good, good, good fall. He's a totally different player, and you can tell it. His confidence is there now."
The Wolfpack could also put Texas A&M transfer Kalae Harrison at short, but he looks like a great fit at second base, where the 'Pack must replace longtime defensive whiz JT Jarrett. Harrison did not provide much offensive production in two years at A&M, put he put together a strong summer on the Cape, hitting .278 and showing good feel for the strike zone and a nice gap-to-gap, contact-oriented approach. He really stands out for his defense, with good hands and actions as well as the ability to make strong, accurate throws on the run.
Another huge key up the middle is the development of sophomore catcher Jacob Cozart, who learned on the job as a true freshman last year, finishing the year with a .240/.337/.377 mark. He handled himself well defensively for a freshman, but he has made a nice progression in that area from freshman year to sophomore year. He showed above-average arm strength against Duke and also swung the bat well from the left side, ripping a double into the right-field corner and lacing a hard single to center. Like Green, he's a sophomore year breakout candidate.
"Up the middle's where you have to be strong in baseball, we know that. Cozart, not only did he catch a lot last year, but he went to the Cape, and it's hard for a freshman to go to the Cape, and he played almost a full season up there, and he grew there as well," Avent said. "He got a lot better. He came back here a lot stronger and more sure of himself. He was already a good defensive catcher, but he's gotten even better. He has turned into a heck of a player, and as a hitter, he's a lot better hitter. He's got a real bright side to him, and he was really impressive this fall."
The other returnee who has really stood out for his improved confidence and production is veteran outfielder Noah Soles, a lefthanded slasher with good speed who is coming off a nice 2022 campaign, hitting .321/.396/.458 with 11 doubles in 168 at-bats. "I guess you could kind of say he's arrived, where he knows what kind of player he is and how good he is," Avent said.
Soles could play all three outfield spots, but he started in left field against Duke, with two Davidson transfers occupying the other two spots: Parker Nolan in center and Trevor Candelaria in right. Avent said Nolan and Candelaria are almost interchangeable as defenders in center, but Nolan seems more comfortable there than in right, so that might be how the alignment shakes out. Candelara also has a strong arm that plays very well in right. Both of them are coming off standout seasons at Davidson, where Candelaria hit .242/.452/.607 with 13 homers, 19 doubles and 12 steals, while Nolan hit .310/.442/.663 with 15 homers and 12 steals. Both are tall and lanky with good whip in their righthanded swings, and both have the athleticism and speed to make things happen on the basepaths.
The outfield looks like a logjam, with the Soles/Nolan/Candelaria trio joined by Pilolli and Old Dominion transfer Carter Trice, both of whom must be in the lineup because of their powerful bats. Trice is an established star who has slugged 31 homers over the last two years for the Monarchs and has seen action with USA Baseball and in the Cape League. He started his career at second base but fits better in the outfield, though he's still developing as a defender in the grass. Avent said he was banged up this fall, dealing with arm and hamstring issues that mostly limited him to DH duties and kept him from running full speed for much of the fall, but Avent liked the instincts he saw from Trice on the basepaths. Whether he's in left field or at DH, Trice's righthanded power bat should be a fixture in the middle of the lineup, and he showed off that juice with a no-doubter home run to left field on a 94 mph fastball against Duke.
With so much talent in the outfield, NC State opted to focus on developing sophomore Will Marcy as a corner infielder, and he could be a candidate for the first base job after earning all-star honors in the Valley League. "We're just looking for a way to get his bat in the lineup because he seems to find a way to get hits on game day," Avent said.
But Marcy faces stiff competition for the first base job in blue-chip freshman Eli Serrano, a lean 6-foot-6, 190-pound lefthanded hitter with a good feel for hitting and serious raw power potential, especially as he continues to mature physically.
"He's a big talent, we weren't sure he'd get here but he wanted to go to college," Avent said. "Eli just keeps getting better and better. His ceiling is so high. When you bring up that he's Paul O'Neill, of course his first question is, 'Who's Paul O'Neill?' But he reminds me of him, and if he can get Paul O'Neill's competitive edge, he has a chance to really do some special things in college and beyond. He's a really good talent."
Serrano is the most likely freshman to earn a regular job, but NC State's freshman position player group looks strong, bolstering the depth of the roster and laying a nice foundation for the next couple of years. Middle infielders Isaiah Barkett and Matt Heaver both have the look of future regulars, with very good defensive actions and arm strength, plenty of athleticism, and a knack for finding barrels. And outfielder Michael Gupton is a very exciting outfield talent with elite foot speed and intriguing bat speed from the right side. He's an explosive athlete who could become a star as he learns to harness his raw gifts and Avent was very impressed with his work ethic this fall as well.
So even though this is a new-look roster, the talent level remains high, and the intangible factors that matter so much appear to be in good shape as well.
"When you lose the amount of players we've lost in the last couple years, with the invention of the transfer portal where players are just going different places every year, we have 43 players on the roster this fall, and 22 of them are in their first year at NC State, and 14 of those are true freshmen," Avent said. "So the biggest thing I was looking for this fall is obviously you want to make sure you have the right amount of talent, because you're not gonna win without talent in college baseball but I was more worried about the work ethic: are these guys gonna get along, get to know each other? Are you gonna be able to build a team through 22 new players on a roster in one year, that's hard to imagine. So what I looked at was how they came together, the work ethic. And the thing that I've been most happy about is the way they came together. they got to know each other quickly, their work ethic, the practices were good almost every day, you don't get perfect on that. but they're learning how to work. So the things I was most scared of, those things got eased a little bit this fall."
"For the strength of the Pack is the Wolf, and the strength of the Wolf is the Pack"
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Follow me on twitter: @d_johnson13/@PackUniforms
