With the 2026 college football season approaching, it’s time to start buying and selling teams across the ACC.
Every preseason brings teams that look undervalued, teams carrying more hype than their situation warrants, and a few programs with schedules that can completely change the trajectory of their season.
For us, the evaluation starts with three things: schedule, quarterback play, and roster construction.
Those factors lead to two teams we’re buying entering 2026 — NC State and California — and two we have significant concerns about in Florida State and North Carolina.
And then there’s Miami, which may simply be operating in a tier of its own.
BUY: NC State
There might not be a more intriguing schedule in the ACC than the one NC State will play this season.
The Wolfpack avoid several of the conference’s most dangerous teams, including Miami, Clemson, SMU and Pitt. Instead, the biggest early tests come against Virginia, Vanderbilt, and Louisville.
That creates an opportunity.
NC State opens the season on the road against Virginia in a Week Zero ACC matchup. It’s an important game because both programs enter the year as potential sleepers in the conference.
Win that game, and the possibilities start getting interesting quickly.
After Virginia, NC State faces Richmond before traveling to Vanderbilt and then returning home for Appalachian State and Louisville.
Get through that opening stretch in good shape and the schedule becomes extremely favorable.
Six of NC State’s next seven games following the Vanderbilt trip will be played at home, with the lone road game coming at Stanford following a bye week.
That is exactly the type of schedule that can allow a team to build momentum.
And NC State has something else working in its favor: C.J. Bailey.
Is C.J. Bailey Ready to Become an Elevator?
Bailey enters the season as one of the ACC’s most experienced and talented quarterbacks.
The Wolfpack invested heavily in keeping him in Raleigh for a reason.
Now he needs to become the type of quarterback who doesn't simply produce numbers — he needs to elevate the team around him.
Look across NC State’s schedule and there aren't many games where the Wolfpack should enter with a clear disadvantage at quarterback.
That matters.
In a conference where there may not be a massive talent gap between teams two through eight or nine, having the better quarterback can be enough to consistently win close games.
Bailey has already accumulated significant starting experience. If he makes another jump in 2026, NC State suddenly has the combination every potential surprise team wants:
An experienced quarterback and a manageable schedule.
We've seen what that combination can produce in the ACC.
Virginia entered last season with relatively modest expectations and took advantage of its opportunity, finishing 7-1 in conference play and reaching the ACC Championship Game.
NC State has the ingredients to potentially make a similar run.
That doesn't mean the Wolfpack should be penciled into the ACC title game. But the path exists.
If NC State gets through Louisville without a loss, you can start looking ahead and envisioning a scenario where the Wolfpack are still undefeated deep into October.
That's when expectations can change quickly.
BUY: California
NC State isn't the only ACC team we're buying.
California could be one of the most underrated teams in the conference.
The biggest reason is quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.
Sagapolutele showed as a true freshman that he has the ability to elevate the players around him. Cal picked up wins over Louisville and SMU last season — exactly the type of games that demonstrate the ceiling a talented quarterback can provide.
Now Cal has worked to strengthen the roster around him.
The Golden Bears added weapons through the transfer portal while new head coach Tosh Lupoi brings a defensive background after arriving from Oregon.
There are obvious challenges associated with playing an ACC schedule from the West Coast, but that works both ways.
Opponents also have to make the cross-country trip to Berkeley.
Combine that home-field dynamic with one of the league's better quarterbacks, and Cal has the potential to outperform preseason expectations.
We're not predicting the Golden Bears to win the ACC.
But five or six conference wins? That wouldn't be surprising at all.
SELL: Florida State
Florida State is almost the opposite situation.
The Seminoles still have talent. Their recruiting footprint, resources, and brand almost guarantee they'll have one of the more talented rosters in the ACC.
The problem is everything surrounding that talent.
Most notably, the schedule is brutal.
Florida State has to deal with SMU, Virginia, Louisville, Miami, Clemson, Pitt, and NC State in ACC play, along with a nonconference trip to Alabama.
There are very few opportunities to breathe.
That becomes particularly concerning when considering how quickly things have unraveled for Florida State when expectations haven't been met in recent seasons.
The opening portion of the schedule could define everything.
If Florida State starts winning, momentum could completely change the outlook. The Seminoles have enough talent that a rebound season isn't impossible.
But if the losses start accumulating early, the pressure surrounding the program could become enormous.
By the time NC State faces Florida State on November 21, the Seminoles could look very different from the team that entered the season.
That's why we're selling.
It's less about believing Florida State has no talent and more about questioning whether its roster is good enough to overcome one of the most difficult schedules in the conference.
SELL: North Carolina
If Florida State's schedule is difficult, North Carolina's might be even more concerning.
The Tar Heels have to navigate a slate that includes TCU, Clemson, Notre Dame, Pitt, Duke, Syracuse, Miami, UConn, Louisville, Virginia, and NC State.
Finding comfortable wins isn't easy.
UNC opens against TCU in Dublin before an early bye, faces East Tennessee State and Clemson, and then gets another bye.
After that?
There isn't another break.
The Tar Heels will have to grind through the remainder of the season against a series of physical opponents, including Notre Dame, Pitt, Duke, and Miami.
The bigger question is whether UNC has upgraded the roster enough to handle that challenge.
Bill Belichick's first season in Chapel Hill didn't produce the level of consistency the Tar Heels hoped for. Year two should provide a better indication of where the program is headed, but the schedule isn't doing UNC any favors.
There will almost certainly be a game or two where North Carolina surprises somebody.
Projecting enough wins to significantly exceed expectations is much more difficult.
That's why UNC joins Florida State on the sell side entering 2026.
Miami Is the Team to Beat
Then there's Miami.
Calling the Hurricanes a "buy" almost feels unnecessary because expectations are already high.
Miami has arguably the strongest roster in the ACC and added another major piece at quarterback in Darian Mensah, who helped lead Duke to the ACC Championship in 2025.
Now he's being dropped into a Miami offense surrounded by high-level talent.
The Hurricanes also have a schedule that gives them time to develop.
Their first four games provide an opportunity to establish the offense before a major road test against Clemson.
That's significant for a team integrating a new quarterback.
Miami isn't unbeatable. Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame provide legitimate challenges.
But entering the season, there appears to be a gap between Miami and everyone else.
NC State’s Time?
After the Hurricanes, you could probably arrange the next six teams in almost any order.
And that's what makes NC State so interesting. The Wolfpack still have to go win games, beginning with a difficult road matchup against Virginia.
But opportunity matters in college football.
So does quarterback play.
And so does schedule.
NC State appears to have all three working in its favor entering 2026.
The Wolfpack brought back a quarterback capable of becoming one of the ACC's best players. They avoid several of the conference's biggest preseason contenders. They have an extended stretch of home games in the middle of the season.
Now they have to capitalize.
If Bailey becomes the difference-maker NC State believes he can be and the Wolfpack survive the opening portion of the schedule, this could become much more than another seven- or eight-win season.
NC State has a legitimate opportunity to become one of the ACC's biggest surprises in 2026.
