SmaptyWolf said:
Civilized said:
BigBarryWood said:
Haven't most sane people been saying that for a while. Now that they know they are losing to Trump they are going all in on getting him removed. Biden is about to get the trump treatment if he doesn't back down.
Biden has been losing to Trump for a year.
What changed was after that disastrous debate, many Dems (accurately) think Biden's already-marginal chances of winning took an unrecoverable hit.
To be fair, Dems are a notorious circular firing squad who are always convinced that they're losing if they aren't 10% ahead, and this race is that on steroids. Also worth noting that even after the debate and the New York Times running 10 front page stories a day calling for Biden to be pushed out he's currently only 2% behind Trump (according to 538, a fairly unbiased poll aggregator).
I guess we're about to find out how unrecoverable it was.
Yeah 538 is great. Poll aggregation is the way to go for obvious reasons, it evens out bias via poll sampling from across the spectrum.
Even still, Trump support is notoriously hard to poll and consistently errs towards underrepresenting his actual ultimate electoral support. He consistently outperforms his polling.
Also, with the conservative electoral college advantage, national polls are fine for looking at trends but don't accurately forecast candidate win probability.
Clinton had a 4-point lead in national polling aggregates heading into Election Day 2016, finished with a 2-point lead, and still lost the election soundly because she got crushed in the swing states.
I'd worry more about swing state polling than national polling, and Trump is currently leading the polls in 5 of the 7 swing states
If 538 projections are currently accurate, with Biden trailing by 2, how would you handicap the horse race given polling lessons learned from 2016 and 2020?
Actual handicappers given Biden around a 20% chance to win currently and I just don't see why there's reason to think that's way off given the aforementioned factors.