We may hit for average and steal some bases with that lineup - could be a fun group to watch, but on paper, it certainly lacks a big bat or two... Really need Novy/Serrano/Wiggins/Ryan all to take big steps next year.
Next Season
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Last: 22 hrs ago by JCooke93
I think Ryan could give us 12-15 homers
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I think people significantly underestimate Ryan, whether it's the injury or going cold for stretches, but shortstops with a 139 wRC+ don't grow on trees. That's a first team all ACC guy who will get picked in the middle of the first round
EthanBarry said:
I think people significantly underestimate Ryan, whether it's the injury or going cold for stretches, but shortstops with a 139 wRC+ don't grow on trees. That's a first team all ACC guy who will get picked in the middle of the first round
Yup. Saw a mock (maybe pbr?) that had him going 28th overall next year. If he plays like that, like he showed he can do this year, we could have a big year. Kid is a stud
New RHP to the pitching list
Yeah we are in good hands next year at SS.
May be a big ask Ethan but your knowledge of these crazy obscure baseball stats is super impressive but when I hear them in podcasts I have no clue what they mean. Not asking you make pods longer but could you throw a one sentence synopsis of what they indicate? And before the jerk posts "you have access to internet" I went and looked up wRC and found that 139 means he's basically responsible for 39(100 is right on the average) runs more than his comparable players on the other team. Hell don't even know if that's right but think I got the gist.
It's weird stuff like that though….just make 0 the average and you are a net loss or gain just do plus minus. But that's baseball and there are a ton of stats like that .
It's weird stuff like that though….just make 0 the average and you are a net loss or gain just do plus minus. But that's baseball and there are a ton of stats like that .
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KDHpack said:
May be a big ask Ethan but your knowledge of these crazy obscure baseball stats is super impressive but when I hear them in podcasts I have no clue what they mean. Not asking you make pods longer but could you throw a one sentence synopsis of what they indicate? And before the jerk posts "you have access to internet" I went and looked up wRC and found that 139 means he's basically responsible for 39(100 is right on the average) runs more than his comparable players on the other team. Hell don't even know if that's right but think I got the gist.
It's weird stuff like that though….just make 0 the average and you are a net loss or gain just do plus minus. But that's baseball and there are a ton of stats like that .
Yeah I get it and that's why I try not to get too in depth because it's really nerdy. You're on the right track but it's a percentage compared to league average, not runs. So a 139 wRC+ is 39% better than an average D1 hitter. Any stat with a + on the end is comparing to the league from a percentage perspective. ERA+, OPS+, etc
With the addition of De Jong, what would you guys project as the weekend rotation?
IMO Nance and Lax are decent bets, but who is the 3rd guy? Can choose from De Jong, Chicoli, Sam Harris, Hemric, Gutierrez, maybe Ragusa/Garino, Holbrook?, etc. Going to be quite the competition. Anyone have any thoughts/preferences?
IMO Nance and Lax are decent bets, but who is the 3rd guy? Can choose from De Jong, Chicoli, Sam Harris, Hemric, Gutierrez, maybe Ragusa/Garino, Holbrook?, etc. Going to be quite the competition. Anyone have any thoughts/preferences?
I don't see any of the guys you list that were on last years roster taking a starting role. Don't see that profile from any other than Hemric and I don't think he is ready.
Personally I think Sam Harris is slept on. I think he had a very underrated freshman year and has the starter profile. Needs to gain strength and whatnot, but definitely has the profile.
Not sure anyone we have would be considered "ready" but maybe a JUCO arm takes a weekend spot?
Not sure anyone we have would be considered "ready" but maybe a JUCO arm takes a weekend spot?
KDHpack said:
May be a big ask Ethan but your knowledge of these crazy obscure baseball stats is super impressive but when I hear them in podcasts I have no clue what they mean. Not asking you make pods longer but could you throw a one sentence synopsis of what they indicate? And before the jerk posts "you have access to internet" I went and looked up wRC and found that 139 means he's basically responsible for 39(100 is right on the average) runs more than his comparable players on the other team. Hell don't even know if that's right but think I got the gist.
It's weird stuff like that though….just make 0 the average and you are a net loss or gain just do plus minus. But that's baseball and there are a ton of stats like that .
wRC+ and OPS+ are the two best hitting metrics IMO.
Easiest way to explain wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) is that it measures how many runs a hitter creates per plate appearance, compared to the league average with ballpark factors adjusted (Where the hitter plays home games).
100 is the baseline for average so it is a real quick way to measure a hitter. 120 wRC+ means hitter is 20% better than the league average, 80 means he is 20% worse.
Unlike BA where every hit is measured the same, wRC+ treats a double more than a single etc.
That can be skewed some because you don't want a guy playing first or a corner spot with say a 105 wRC+, you want them creating more than that, but you will take that from a guy playing up the middle.
Alex Sosa is a good comparison from last year. Had a .291 avg, .405 OBP but a 109 wRC+, so he was 9% better than the average hitter in college last year, OK number for a catcher but not really what you want from your 3/4 hole hitter.
Just to put into perspective. I can't remember at what point in the season this year, but I do remember looking at wRC+ for conference games only and State had like 2 guys over 100 and one was Drew Lanphere.
PGAWolf said:
Just to put into perspective. I can't remember at what point in the season this year, but I do remember looking at wRC+ for conference games only and State had like 2 guys over 100 and one was Drew Lanphere.
Fangraphs had him with a 59.
They also have Ryan with a 123 which is not the same number Ethan had. They actually have Nixon leading us this year with a 129 and Head second with a 125.
Not sure what is different.
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While you are there see if d1 has add anyone else lol
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Jtilley said:PGAWolf said:
Just to put into perspective. I can't remember at what point in the season this year, but I do remember looking at wRC+ for conference games only and State had like 2 guys over 100 and one was Drew Lanphere.
Fangraphs had him with a 59.
They also have Ryan with a 123 which is not the same number Ethan had. They actually have Nixon leading us this year with a 129 and Head second with a 125.
Not sure what is different.
Yeah that is weird.
Btw, the Lanphere thing was for like 2 weeks at the beginning of ACC play. It was extremely short lived.
Alex Gee said:
Holy crap WRC+ falls off a cliff. From like 110 to next guy down being in the 70s. Ouch.
Edit: Also man some of those K rates. Double ouch.
Nerd away Ethan. I'm sure not all but I would guess most State fans are math guys. I love the insight, keep it up. If I didn't care I wouldn't have asked.
Wolf
"Spill it", JC93!!! Please…..?!
Two Sr portal targets
Thanks!
Sorry guys
Seems like if we keep adding arms, we will lose some arms.
True but Robinson is cooking
Oh look other SS now following Robinson
Sanders will be on campus this fall
JCooke93 said:
Sanders will be on campus this fall
Good news, he had a very solid season this year at the JUCO level. Could definitely see him competing for serious innings
He also finally put nc state baseball on his bio
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