Regional pitching plan

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GottaMakeShots
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12:05a, 5/29/25
My 2 cents. … I think the packs opportunity to win the regional follows a very specific path that ideally only means playing 3 games…

Game 1: Mahron. Yes I know throwing not your ace game 1 doesn't excite some folks, but if you're not good enough to beat Stetson without your ace then you're not winning the regional. Dudan first out of the pen. Nance if needed

Game 2: Fritton. Shaffner first out of the pen. Pack has followed fritton with nance lately and following power with power sometimes doesn't work.

Game 3: ideally nance is fresh to start and you're 2-0. If no nance you roll Andrews with a short leash.

Also:…… SWING IT!!
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StateFan2001
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In reply to GottaMakeShots • 7:56a, 5/29/25
GottaMakeShots said:
My 2 cents. … I think the packs opportunity to win the regional follows a very specific path that ideally only means playing 3 games…

Game 1: Mahron. Yes I know throwing not your ace game 1 doesn't excite some folks, but if you're not good enough to beat Stetson without your ace then you're not winning the regional. Dudan first out of the pen. Nance if needed

Game 2: Fritton. Shaffner first out of the pen. Pack has followed fritton with nance lately and following power with power sometimes doesn't work.

Game 3: ideally nance is fresh to start and you're 2-0. If no nance you roll Andrews with a short leash.

Also:…… SWING IT!!
This is where I am as well. All that assumes things go as planned which they probably won't, but I agree with this recipe.
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SportManagementEngineer
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8:12a, 5/29/25
More often than not, you're going to have to beat the top seed twice to win the regional. If Stetson didn't have a certified ace on the other side tomorrow, you could do something funky (Andrews/SVD) and save Fritton/Marohn for games 2 and 3. You'll have to win a game at some point with someone other than your top two to win the regional.

All that said, I'm going Marohn in game one. I worry about how long he's gone between starts and would rather him knock any early rust off against Stetson rather than in a rowdy environment against Auburn.

I thought Fritton was good against Clemson in the ACCT, wish Avent had sent him out for one more inning before turning it over to the pen. Felt he left too much meat on the bone for Nance and Dudan to finish.
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Alex Gee
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9:19a, 5/29/25
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Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.
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Glasswolf
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In reply to Alex Gee • 9:21a, 5/29/25
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.
This all day. Pitching will be fine. Can we score runs is still TBD.
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wilmwolf
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In reply to Alex Gee • 9:30a, 5/29/25
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.


Right, that's my guess as well, they don't normally change things up like that. And while you never look ahead, should we advance, you would ideally want Dom starting the first game of the supers I think.
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GottaMakeShots
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In reply to Glasswolf • 10:18a, 5/29/25
I do agree with this. The scoring or inability to has plagued us much more than pitching.
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Packsd14me
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In reply to Alex Gee • 11:26a, 5/29/25
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.



The positive to this is Fritton should be throwing on the side Sunday as a normal thing between starts. Thus, his side throwing can be from the mound for about 30 pitches, 2 innings max for late Monday if needed.
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StateFan2001
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In reply to Glasswolf • 2:58p, 5/29/25
Glasswolf said:
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.
This all day. Pitching will be fine. Can we score runs is still TBD.
Fine isn't going to be good enough. Pitching needs to be really good all weekend.
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StateFan2001
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In reply to wilmwolf • 3:00p, 5/29/25
wilmwolf said:
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.


Right, that's my guess as well, they don't normally change things up like that. And while you never look ahead, should we advance, you would ideally want Dom starting the first game of the supers I think.
I don't think anybody is thinking about who pitches game 1 of the supers. To me, it is all about who matches up better against Stetson and who matches up better against Auburn. In my opinion, I like Dom's stuff better against Auburn and I like Marohn's command better against Stetson. The only argument I can come up with for the reverse is that Dom does like to elevate the fastball and it is a short porch in right.
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Alex Gee
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In reply to StateFan2001 • 3:05p, 5/29/25
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StateFan2001 said:
wilmwolf said:
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.


Right, that's my guess as well, they don't normally change things up like that. And while you never look ahead, should we advance, you would ideally want Dom starting the first game of the supers I think.
I don't think anybody is thinking about who pitches game 1 of the supers. To me, it is all about who matches up better against Stetson and who matches up better against Auburn. In my opinion, I like Dom's stuff better against Auburn and I like Marohn's command better against Stetson. The only argument I can come up with for the reverse is that Dom does like to elevate the fastball and it is a short porch in right.
Stetson has hit 46 home runs all year. Auburn has 83

This is a no brainer, IMO. AND set up from last week.
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JCooke93
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3:10p, 5/29/25
Dom it is
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StateFan2001
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In reply to Alex Gee • 5:02p, 5/29/25
Alex Gee said:
StateFan2001 said:
wilmwolf said:
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.


Right, that's my guess as well, they don't normally change things up like that. And while you never look ahead, should we advance, you would ideally want Dom starting the first game of the supers I think.
I don't think anybody is thinking about who pitches game 1 of the supers. To me, it is all about who matches up better against Stetson and who matches up better against Auburn. In my opinion, I like Dom's stuff better against Auburn and I like Marohn's command better against Stetson. The only argument I can come up with for the reverse is that Dom does like to elevate the fastball and it is a short porch in right.
Stetson has hit 46 home runs all year. Auburn has 83

This is a no brainer, IMO. AND set up from last week.


lol a no brainer. Hardly. The guy with better stuff is pitching against Stetson. I wouldn't say that is a no brainer.
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matracey
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5:33p, 5/29/25
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Alex Gee
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In reply to StateFan2001 • 6:19p, 5/29/25
Staff
StateFan2001 said:
Alex Gee said:
StateFan2001 said:
wilmwolf said:
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.


Right, that's my guess as well, they don't normally change things up like that. And while you never look ahead, should we advance, you would ideally want Dom starting the first game of the supers I think.
I don't think anybody is thinking about who pitches game 1 of the supers. To me, it is all about who matches up better against Stetson and who matches up better against Auburn. In my opinion, I like Dom's stuff better against Auburn and I like Marohn's command better against Stetson. The only argument I can come up with for the reverse is that Dom does like to elevate the fastball and it is a short porch in right.
Stetson has hit 46 home runs all year. Auburn has 83

This is a no brainer, IMO. AND set up from last week.


lol a no brainer. Hardly. The guy with better stuff is pitching against Stetson. I wouldn't say that is a no brainer.


I have no clue what you're saying.
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Glasswolf
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In reply to matracey • 6:20p, 5/29/25
matracey said:
Y'all keep bringing facts and things like that into the conversation lol
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Glasswolf
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In reply to Alex Gee • 6:21p, 5/29/25
Alex Gee said:
StateFan2001 said:
Alex Gee said:
StateFan2001 said:
wilmwolf said:
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.


Right, that's my guess as well, they don't normally change things up like that. And while you never look ahead, should we advance, you would ideally want Dom starting the first game of the supers I think.
I don't think anybody is thinking about who pitches game 1 of the supers. To me, it is all about who matches up better against Stetson and who matches up better against Auburn. In my opinion, I like Dom's stuff better against Auburn and I like Marohn's command better against Stetson. The only argument I can come up with for the reverse is that Dom does like to elevate the fastball and it is a short porch in right.
Stetson has hit 46 home runs all year. Auburn has 83

This is a no brainer, IMO. AND set up from last week.


lol a no brainer. Hardly. The guy with better stuff is pitching against Stetson. I wouldn't say that is a no brainer.


I have no clue what you're saying.
Neither does he.
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Glasswolf
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In reply to StateFan2001 • 6:24p, 5/29/25
StateFan2001 said:
Glasswolf said:
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.
This all day. Pitching will be fine. Can we score runs is still TBD.
Fine isn't going to be good enough. Pitching needs to be really good all weekend.
We could pitch a one hitter and lose if we don't score runs. I still have nightmares from games Rondon pitched and we seemed to give him zero run support.
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wilmwolf
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In reply to Glasswolf • 6:43p, 5/29/25
Glasswolf said:
StateFan2001 said:
Glasswolf said:
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.
This all day. Pitching will be fine. Can we score runs is still TBD.
Fine isn't going to be good enough. Pitching needs to be really good all weekend.
We could pitch a one hitter and lose if we don't score runs. I still have nightmares from games Rondon pitched and we seemed to give him zero run support.


By my count, of our 33 wins this year, only 4 wins came scoring less than 6 runs. There are some games were we could have scored less and still won, but that seems to be the sweet spot. Last year, in the post season run, we only won one game scoring less than 6. Our success in the post season will come down to hitting., no doubt.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
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StateFan2001's favorite poster.
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tau06
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In reply to Alex Gee • 8:45p, 5/29/25
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.


This is most likely what will happen. I wish they were flipped. Fritton is our best starter IMo and I'd prefer him against Auburn. Need them both to pitch well regardless. And score some runs!
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tau06
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In reply to matracey • 8:52p, 5/29/25
matracey said:


Fritton could just throw less fastballs if he started against Auburn. Novel concept I know lol
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Alex Gee
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In reply to tau06 • 9:19p, 5/29/25
Staff
tau06 said:
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.


This is most likely what will happen. I wish they were flipped. Fritton is our best starter IMo and I'd prefer him against Auburn. Need them both to pitch well regardless. And score some runs!


Louisville and Auburn offensively are almost identical. Marohn was excellent against Louisville and Fritton got banged around a little.

Stetson is a team that you can't play around with and you can really beat them with the strikeout. They beat you offensively by getting on base while auburn tried to beat you with the big swing.

I just think it's not even a conversation based on the two guys, what they do best, and the opponent. Strikeout guy against Stetson, ground ball strike thrower against Auburn. Plus, I don't really see State as having an ace, more so a 1a 1b. Marohn has not gotten enough credit for what he did in ACC play this year.
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Alex Gee
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In reply to Packsd14me • 9:27p, 5/29/25
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Packsd14me said:
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.



The positive to this is Fritton should be throwing on the side Sunday as a normal thing between starts. Thus, his side throwing can be from the mound for about 30 pitches, 2 innings max for late Monday if needed.


Went back and looked/refreshed. We played a 4th game against Kentucky in 2017 and ran big Johnny P out there for a second start. But he had only recorded one out in game 1.

Didn't re use Reid Johnston in 2018, 4th game.

Did give Brian Brown a second start in the 5th game against Coastal back in 2017

ETA: and of course Carlos Rodon in Omaha, but a little different scenario.
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Bismarck
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9:48p, 5/29/25
Stetson seems less likely to run into Fritton fastballs for homers than Auburn.

Makes total sense to me.

Would love to put up crooked numbers early and throw Kelly/Consiglio/Lucas late to save our most reliable arms.
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CLTWolf
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In reply to tau06 • 9:55p, 5/29/25
tau06 said:
matracey said:


Fritton could just throw less fastballs if he started against Auburn. Novel concept I know lol
Throw less of the best pitch in your arsenal? Bold strategy Cotton! Let's (not) see if it pays off for them.
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James Henderson
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In reply to Alex Gee • 10:27p, 5/29/25
Staff
Alex Gee said:
tau06 said:
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.


This is most likely what will happen. I wish they were flipped. Fritton is our best starter IMo and I'd prefer him against Auburn. Need them both to pitch well regardless. And score some runs!


Louisville and Auburn offensively are almost identical. Marohn was excellent against Louisville and Fritton got banged around a little.

Stetson is a team that you can't play around with and you can really beat them with the strikeout. They beat you offensively by getting on base while auburn tried to beat you with the big swing.

I just think it's not even a conversation based on the two guys, what they do best, and the opponent. Strikeout guy against Stetson, ground ball strike thrower against Auburn. Plus, I don't really see State as having an ace, more so a 1a 1b. Marohn has gotten enough credit for what he did in ACC play this year.
Agree
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matracey
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In reply to tau06 • 10:42p, 5/29/25
I believe FB in this context of this tweet means fly balls
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Packsd14me
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In reply to Alex Gee • 8:13a, 5/30/25
Alex Gee said:
Packsd14me said:
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.



The positive to this is Fritton should be throwing on the side Sunday as a normal thing between starts. Thus, his side throwing can be from the mound for about 30 pitches, 2 innings max for late Monday if needed.


Went back and looked/refreshed. We played a 4th game against Kentucky in 2017 and ran big Johnny P out there for a second start. But he had only recorded one out in game 1.

Didn't re use Reid Johnston in 2018, 4th game.

Did give Brian Brown a second start in the 5th game against Coastal back in 2017

ETA: and of course Carlos Rodon in Omaha, but a little different scenario.



Not a start Alex, innings. There is a difference. Only on a Monday too. Hopefully, we finish on Sunday without it. But Fritton should be able to throw two innings Monday if needed. The Monday start probably goes to Consiglio. If he only gets 4 or 5 innings, the bullpen will be thin. Piece together innings until we can use Dudan or Nance whom ever is the most rested. Hopefully, Smith can give an inning or two
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Alex Gee
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In reply to Packsd14me • 8:41a, 5/30/25
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Packsd14me said:
Alex Gee said:
Packsd14me said:
Alex Gee said:
Fritton wouldn't have started G1 of the ACC tournament if he wasn't starting tomorrow, IMO. It'll be Fritton - Marohn - Andrews almost 100%.

The most important thing is winning the first game.



The positive to this is Fritton should be throwing on the side Sunday as a normal thing between starts. Thus, his side throwing can be from the mound for about 30 pitches, 2 innings max for late Monday if needed.


Went back and looked/refreshed. We played a 4th game against Kentucky in 2017 and ran big Johnny P out there for a second start. But he had only recorded one out in game 1.

Didn't re use Reid Johnston in 2018, 4th game.

Did give Brian Brown a second start in the 5th game against Coastal back in 2017

ETA: and of course Carlos Rodon in Omaha, but a little different scenario.



Not a start Alex, innings. There is a difference. Only on a Monday too. Hopefully, we finish on Sunday without it. But Fritton should be able to throw two innings Monday if needed. The Monday start probably goes to Consiglio. If he only gets 4 or 5 innings, the bullpen will be thin. Piece together innings until we can use Dudan or Nance whom ever is the most rested. Hopefully, Smith can give an inning or two
Oh yeah I know. I was just looking for examples of guys being used twice, and those instances were two starts.
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PGAWolf
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In reply to matracey • 9:03a, 5/30/25
matracey said:
I believe FB in this context of this tweet means fly balls


Correct. For every 100 fly balls Dom gets you would expect to see 14 home runs.

Just for reference 8% is elite. Mahron against the hr hitting team playing in a hitter friendly park is the move.
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SportManagementEngineer
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2:28p, 5/30/25
Interesting, UNC using Knapp against Holy Cross
Twitter: @JJwith2Jays
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2:48p, 5/30/25
I bet Florida wishes they had a better pitcher about right now versus ECU. They have thrown Johnny Allstaff today. What if, Central Connecticut has a good #1 and Auburn loses. Win the first game.
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StateFan2001
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In reply to PGAWolf • 2:50p, 5/30/25
PGAWolf said:
matracey said:
I believe FB in this context of this tweet means fly balls


Correct. For every 100 fly balls Dom gets you would expect to see 14 home runs.

Just for reference 8% is elite. Mahron against the hr hitting team playing in a hitter friendly park is the move.
Yep just hope we don't see 8 singles and doubles over the first 3-4 innings. There are many diffirent ways to be successful or not. I would prefer to give up 2 solo HRs and next to nothing else because of the quality of stuff then give up death by a thousand cuts. The decision was a tough one as both pitchers are good, but I tend to think Dom has the better stuff to attack an SEC lineup. I also think Ryan is better setup to keep guys off the bases against an aggressive team like Stetson.
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Alex Gee
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In reply to Packsd14me • 2:56p, 5/30/25
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Packsd14me said:
I bet Florida wishes they had a better pitcher about right now versus ECU. They have thrown Johnny Allstaff today. What if, Central Connecticut has a good #1 and Auburn loses. Win the first game.


They started their top dog, Liam Peterson, prob a big leaguer. He just couldn't throw a strike.
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matracey
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In reply to StateFan2001 • 3:37p, 5/30/25
Giving up 8 singles and doubles over the first 3-4 innings doesn't necessarily mean the other team is scoring. Giving up home runs guarantees the other team is scoring. So that's pretty flawed logic.

Last year vs Georgia (SEC lineup)
Fritton: 7 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 2 HR in 3 IP
Marohn: 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 2 HR in 4 IP

So neither were great but Marohn was a little bit better.

We'll see how it plays put but all the stats and matchup vs what Stetson does well and what Auburn does well point to starting Fritton today and Marohn tomorrow.
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