matracey said:
Having a higher RPI ceiling doesn't mean anything if you don't win the games. Sure if all the teams that are 26-32 sweep their series and we only win 2/3 then I could see us dropping a couple spots.
It's been said before Warren Nolan predictions are not reliable. It predicts Wake to lose 2/3 vs Louisville and move up 6 spots.
Edited: Since I wrote the original post 30 minutes ago now Warren Nolan predicts us to only 2/3 vs Stanford and drop 3 spots lol. Just another example you can't use the predictions because it's literally changing by the minute with no new data.
To your larger point about going 7-2-1 in acc series, finishing 2nd in the acc at 18-10, with 2 great series wins, i hope you are correct.
It's very plausible that RPI is still king in the traditional committee mindset (i.e. look at 11point7 latest field projections, very rpi- leaning). If it's not, and the hosts look more like D1s latest projection, I will be elated.
Re: the portions I quoted above, a lot of it doesn't make sense, as you said (no way Miami is losing 3 to nd). However wake only winning 1 AT Louisville and moving up 6 spots isn't far fetched (I'm not saying it will DEFINITELY happen or anything). It's just that the math works out if the prediction actually comes true.
e.g. we got +43 points for beating unc once last week, and losing to them was -4. Wake might get +33 for winning at ville, and then -6 points each time they lose to them. That's still a net of +21 (all just estimates). Considering they are only 37 points behind us, they could move up 3 or 4 spots with the +21 weekend (maybe 6 is a little(?) outlandish.)
Anyway ill digress on this topic. I just find Warrennolan useful for speculating how our metrics may look IF things come to fruition, because i am a math nerd.
Let's win the first 2 versus Stanford and dare the committee leave the acc 2nd place team in the short end of the stick in favor of an archaic metric like RPI...
