NC State Football
OUR FINAL TAKE: NC State vs. Florida State
September 23, 2017
1,704
Several members of the Inside Pack Sports staff predict the winner of the NC State-Florida State matchup and tells you why.
NC State 21, Florida State 17
Going out on a limb here, but I think NC State is capable of going down to Tallahassee and pulling off the upset.
To do so, State must control the line of scrimmage, win the turnover battle, and start fast. I think NC State's going to get that fast start and make James Blackman beat them.
While Blackman is talented, this is his first career start and I'm not sure he's ready to win a game on this level down the stretch.
It won't be easy, but State is in a good spot here and finds a way to pull off the upset.
That's my prediction... NC State beats the spread, but they don't win the game.
There are quite a few big question marks in this game and, to me, they’re not all about FSU’s QB situation or their three-week hiatus... though those things matter. I’m still not convinced that the Pack can successfully pound away on the ground with a team/defense like FSU and if State cannot generate any kind of rushing threat then I think it will really allow FSU to let loose that DL to get after Finley and disrupt State’s offense.
Further is whether or not the NCSU secondary can be effective enough to not only cover the talented FSU skill players out wide but also to tackle them in space—essentially will the return of Mike Stevens and possibly Dexter Wright bolster this group enough give FSU’s offense some trouble?
I would expect that since FSU is about to roll out an undersized, untested true freshman in a division game they will be very careful with him—meaning probably lots of running and easy high-percentage passing stuff—that doesn’t mean they won’t open him up and try to hit some big vertical plays as well, just that I would expect a more conservative game plan overall. That kind of offense and State’s general ‘bend don’t break’ defensive structure allows QBs/Offenses to get in a rhythm and I think that is the enemy you really want to avoid.
If State’s defensive game plan is to attack the FSU backfield and disrupt the young QB AND they have success doing it then I would guess they’ll have a pretty decent shot in this one. At the end of the day there are too many ‘what ifs’ to pick against a well-rested FSU team, at home, with one of the best Ds in the country; however I can see the possibility that the right things go State’s way and they come out with a win.
I would love to pick the Wolfpack here, but I can't quite do it. FSU will present the toughest defense State will see all year. If State is to pull the upset, the outside wide receivers will need to step up.
I see the Seminole defense doing the best job on Samuels and Hines of any defense all year. The running game will be tough to establish as well. Defensively, State matches up well in spots, but the deep ball on the outside has to be a huge concern. FSU will have just enough favorable matchups and the home field in their favor.
This is a befuddling game to predict in regards to Florida State as it's hard to judge any team, albeit a ranked one at that, with just one game under its belt.
The Wolfpack will have a tough line to go against, but if successful, State will have a freshman quarterback with no previous collegiate experience to take down, an objective Bradley Chubb and company should have no problem accomplishing.
This will also ultimately be a test for Ryan Finley as this game should be an indicator for whether he'll have a good, even great, season behind center or if this will be a season where he can surpass Philip Rivers as one of the best Wolfpack quarterbacks of all time. The 'Noles have a historically strong defense, and Finley will have to utilize all of his weapons surrounding him, especially Jaylen Samuels, to make an impact in the ACC Atlantic.
Florida State will undoubtedly miss Deondre Francois, and I expect the Seminole offense to struggle a bit early on. However, James Blackman is no pushover, and Florida State has too much talent surrounding him for the Wolfpack to handle all game.
Ryan Finley has been excellent so far this season, but he'll face a different kind of beast in the Florida State defense. FSU's defense boasts several first and second round picks, and I don't expect the Wolfpack to consistently handle the pressure they'll apply.
I do think State can stay in the game if they win the special teams battle and secure a few turnovers, but I don't see that happening against a well-disciplined team like Florida State.
Normally, I'd like the Pack's chances in this one. A true freshman quarterback facing the Wolfpack's D-line, but the law of Raleigh says FSU's young quarterback will have a breakout performance - breaking N.C. State's hopes of an upset.
I told myself I wasn't going to do this, but I am.
FSU hasn't played since week 1. The Pack has played two games since then and have got into an incredible offensive rhythm. FSU will be with their freshman QB who is a huge question mark. I imagine FSU lends heavily to the run game, and that favors the Pack.
If Street, Roseboro, and Chubb play like they did last week, an upset will be brewing in Tallahassee.
I believe it will happen even with the Pack favoring the run game and Finley throwing about 30 passes.
James Henderson (IPS Publisher)
NC State 21, Florida State 17Going out on a limb here, but I think NC State is capable of going down to Tallahassee and pulling off the upset.
It won't be easy, but State is in a good spot here and finds a way to pull off the upset.
To do so, State must control the line of scrimmage, win the turnover battle, and start fast. I think NC State's going to get that fast start and make James Blackman beat them.
While Blackman is talented, this is his first career start and I'm not sure he's ready to win a game on this level down the stretch.
It won't be easy, but State is in a good spot here and finds a way to pull off the upset.
Rob McLamb (IPS Beat Writer)
Florida State 38, NC State 28That's my prediction... NC State beats the spread, but they don't win the game.
Bryant Carson (IPS Football Analyst)
Florida State 31, NC State 24There are quite a few big question marks in this game and, to me, they’re not all about FSU’s QB situation or their three-week hiatus... though those things matter. I’m still not convinced that the Pack can successfully pound away on the ground with a team/defense like FSU and if State cannot generate any kind of rushing threat then I think it will really allow FSU to let loose that DL to get after Finley and disrupt State’s offense.
Further is whether or not the NCSU secondary can be effective enough to not only cover the talented FSU skill players out wide but also to tackle them in space—essentially will the return of Mike Stevens and possibly Dexter Wright bolster this group enough give FSU’s offense some trouble?
I can see the possibility that the right things go State’s way and they come out with a win.
I would expect that since FSU is about to roll out an undersized, untested true freshman in a division game they will be very careful with him—meaning probably lots of running and easy high-percentage passing stuff—that doesn’t mean they won’t open him up and try to hit some big vertical plays as well, just that I would expect a more conservative game plan overall. That kind of offense and State’s general ‘bend don’t break’ defensive structure allows QBs/Offenses to get in a rhythm and I think that is the enemy you really want to avoid.
If State’s defensive game plan is to attack the FSU backfield and disrupt the young QB AND they have success doing it then I would guess they’ll have a pretty decent shot in this one. At the end of the day there are too many ‘what ifs’ to pick against a well-rested FSU team, at home, with one of the best Ds in the country; however I can see the possibility that the right things go State’s way and they come out with a win.
James Johnson (IPS Football Analyst)
Florida State 24, NC State 17I would love to pick the Wolfpack here, but I can't quite do it. FSU will present the toughest defense State will see all year. If State is to pull the upset, the outside wide receivers will need to step up.
I see the Seminole defense doing the best job on Samuels and Hines of any defense all year. The running game will be tough to establish as well. Defensively, State matches up well in spots, but the deep ball on the outside has to be a huge concern. FSU will have just enough favorable matchups and the home field in their favor.
Daniel Wilson (IPS Writer)
NC State 17, Florida State 10This is a befuddling game to predict in regards to Florida State as it's hard to judge any team, albeit a ranked one at that, with just one game under its belt.
The 'Noles have a historically strong defense, and Finley will have to utilize all of his weapons surrounding him, especially Jaylen Samuels, to make an impact in the ACC Atlantic.
It makes it even tricker when that one game was against arguably the best team in the country, Alabama. However, I think this game will come down to how State's defensive front will do against the Seminoles' offensive line.The Wolfpack will have a tough line to go against, but if successful, State will have a freshman quarterback with no previous collegiate experience to take down, an objective Bradley Chubb and company should have no problem accomplishing.
This will also ultimately be a test for Ryan Finley as this game should be an indicator for whether he'll have a good, even great, season behind center or if this will be a season where he can surpass Philip Rivers as one of the best Wolfpack quarterbacks of all time. The 'Noles have a historically strong defense, and Finley will have to utilize all of his weapons surrounding him, especially Jaylen Samuels, to make an impact in the ACC Atlantic.
Jackson Williford (IPS Writer)
Florida State 35, NC State 21Florida State will undoubtedly miss Deondre Francois, and I expect the Seminole offense to struggle a bit early on. However, James Blackman is no pushover, and Florida State has too much talent surrounding him for the Wolfpack to handle all game.
Ryan Finley has been excellent so far this season, but he'll face a different kind of beast in the Florida State defense. FSU's defense boasts several first and second round picks, and I don't expect the Wolfpack to consistently handle the pressure they'll apply.
I do think State can stay in the game if they win the special teams battle and secure a few turnovers, but I don't see that happening against a well-disciplined team like Florida State.
Jeff Reeves (IPS Photographer)
Florida State 35, NC State 13Normally, I'd like the Pack's chances in this one. A true freshman quarterback facing the Wolfpack's D-line, but the law of Raleigh says FSU's young quarterback will have a breakout performance - breaking N.C. State's hopes of an upset.
Austin Parker (IPS Writer)
NC State 21, Florida State 17I told myself I wasn't going to do this, but I am.
I told myself I wasn't going to do this, but I am.
FSU hasn't played since week 1. The Pack has played two games since then and have got into an incredible offensive rhythm. FSU will be with their freshman QB who is a huge question mark. I imagine FSU lends heavily to the run game, and that favors the Pack.
If Street, Roseboro, and Chubb play like they did last week, an upset will be brewing in Tallahassee.
I believe it will happen even with the Pack favoring the run game and Finley throwing about 30 passes.
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