Buckle up. 10 of the last 14 rate cates have resulted in a recession.

Trump will have a huge mess to clean up his first 2 years back in office thanks to dementia Joe and Kamal.

September 18, 2024: 50bp rate cut
September 18, 2007: 50bp rate cut

— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) September 18, 2024

Bas2020 said:

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Buckle up. 10 of the last 14 rate cates have resulted in a recession.

Trump will have a huge mess to clean up his first 2 years back in office thanks to dementia Joe and Kamal.

September 18, 2024: 50bp rate cut
September 18, 2007: 50bp rate cut

— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) September 18, 2024

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I'm aware of that historical parallel but many aren't, congrats for noticing that.its like the market decided to sell the news and the selling began to avalanche. The real question is the time frame…will it start slow into the election, or accelerate quickly?

BOOM!

No crash exactly in 2024 but it's probably that much closer with changed conditions this year. Two problems…fewer takers of US sovereign debt forcing up yields, putting massive pressure on the stock market and a Fed pushed to create money out of thin air to buy that debt thereby accelerating inflation. Precious metals and miner stocks are charting nicely for an epic 2025. Get it while you can. Gold increasingly unaffordable. platinum and silver will be next. Miners are just beginning to report some impressive profits.

Treasury yields soaring this morning….if this continues, the equities markets are going to react far worse than they already are.

Were gonna have to bite the bullet at some point...and probably soon if I had to guess

Oldsouljer said:

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No crash exactly in 2024 but it's probably that much closer with changed conditions this year. Two problems…fewer takers of US sovereign debt forcing up yields, putting massive pressure on the stock market and a Fed pushed to create money out of thin air to buy that debt thereby accelerating inflation. Precious metals and miner stocks are charting nicely for an epic 2025. Get it while you can. Gold increasingly unaffordable. platinum and silver will be next. Miners are just beginning to report some impressive profits.

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Good analysis thanks for posting

Market getting hammered today. I have a feeling markets wont finish year much further ahead than where it is now.

The stupid tarriffs need to go.

erniencsu02 said:

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Market getting hammered today. I have a feeling markets wont finish year much further ahead than where it is now.

The stupid tarriffs need to go.

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Honestly, there are so many fundamentally imbalanced things in both the domestic and world economies, I think tariffs for better or worse, are just another factor whose presence or elimination, won't alter our presence trajectory. Compared to sovereign debt levels, tariffs are small fry in the greater scheme of things.

Oldsouljer said:

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erniencsu02 said:

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Market getting hammered today. I have a feeling markets wont finish year much further ahead than where it is now.

The stupid tarriffs need to go.

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Honestly, there are so many fundamentally imbalanced things in both the domestic and world economies, I think tariffs for better or worse, are just another factor whose presence or elimination, won't alter our presence trajectory. Compared to sovereign debt levels, tariffs are small fry in the greater scheme of things.

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yea so add another wrench in the form of a trade war? Makes no sense.

erniencsu02 said:

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Market getting hammered today. I have a feeling markets wont finish year much further ahead than where it is now.

The stupid tarriffs need to go.

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I'd bet a lot of money the markets are spooked by the new coronavirus found in China more than tariffs.

wolf howl said:

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erniencsu02 said:

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Market getting hammered today. I have a feeling markets wont finish year much further ahead than where it is now.

The stupid tarriffs need to go.

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I'd bet a lot of money the markets are spooked by the new coronavirus found in China more than tariffs.

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yea I dont think so

Who didn't see this coming?

wolf5 said:

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Who didn't see this coming?

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Who didn't think the market was over-heated?

caryking said:

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wolf5 said:

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Who didn't see this coming?

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Who didn't think the market was over-heated?

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And stocks significantly overpriced. Furthermore, breadth is significantly narrowed to just a few "magnificent seven".

I'm not retiring tomorrow so I personally enjoy seeing stocks on sale. Been holding cash for a while now as most are overpriced IMO.

wolf howl said:

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I'm not retiring tomorrow so I personally enjoy seeing stocks on sale. Been holding cash for a while now as most are overpriced IMO.

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Never rooting for the stock market to crash, but I havent bought anything (outside of retirement accounts) since 2021. Granted, Im a buy it and hold it type of investor, but man every stock seems to be way overpriced

I thought COVID would be the dam break, but it keeps trucking along.

wolf howl said:

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I'm not retiring tomorrow so I personally enjoy seeing stocks on sale. Been holding cash for a while now as most are overpriced IMO.

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Yes. As Dave Ramsay said in 2020, there's a Covid fire sale. I'm 97% in cash and am not going to buy until equities reach sane valuations again. Exception, I think the miners' time is coming like it's 1982 again and I've dedicated one account to a bag of mixed-cap miners.

Lol

Poor Ernie, he can't see the forest for his tree.

Clown show.

wolf howl said:

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Clown show.

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Trump and his economy is the only clown show in town. You guys are morons.

Dude is heading us right into stagflation. What a POS.

Funny thing is if Trump dropped dead of a heart attack the stock market would have it's best day in years. Thats how I know he's a ****ty president. Even Obama was better than this clown LOL

erniencsu02 said:

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wolf howl said:

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erniencsu02 said:

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hell 4 years of Biden asleep at the wheel was better than this s***


Im not partial to one side and dont really like politics. When I say a president sucks cock then it's really bad because I typically dont give a f***

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You seem totally unbiased. lol

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you act like it's hard for an unbiased non-political person to hate Trump. Im not a registered dem or pub.

Hell most times I dont give a **** enough to go vote. To get me this riled up you had to be a real ****head.

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Edit - nevermind

FlossyDFlynt said:

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erniencsu02 said:

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wolf howl said:

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erniencsu02 said:

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hell 4 years of Biden asleep at the wheel was better than this s***


Im not partial to one side and dont really like politics. When I say a president sucks cock then it's really bad because I typically dont give a f***

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You seem totally unbiased. lol

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you act like it's hard for an unbiased non-political person to hate Trump. Im not a registered dem or pub.

Hell most times I dont give a **** enough to go vote. To get me this riled up you had to be a real ****head.

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If you dont vote, you dont get to complain when things go good or bad

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who spoon fed you that line of bulls***? Thought this was America.

Some countries force you to vote.

It's my god given right to feel like all candidates suck balls and not vote, and complain my ass off about whichever unvote-able ball sucking candidate that wins.

FlossyDFlynt said:

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erniencsu02 said:

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wolf howl said:

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erniencsu02 said:

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hell 4 years of Biden asleep at the wheel was better than this s***


Im not partial to one side and dont really like politics. When I say a president sucks cock then it's really bad because I typically dont give a f***

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You seem totally unbiased. lol

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you act like it's hard for an unbiased non-political person to hate Trump. Im not a registered dem or pub.

Hell most times I dont give a **** enough to go vote. To get me this riled up you had to be a real ****head.

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Edit - nevermind

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yea I thought so.

Definitely been a rough couple months. Markets don't like uncertainty... tarriffs bring uncertainty. Things will get ironed out and better as the year goes on. I'm beat up pretty bad but I'm still optimistic about 2025. I think we will bounce and soon. The global m2 money supply is up and the market usually lags the m2 chart by a couple months.The DXY is starting to break down.

So the markets could be in for a very bullish 2nd qtr. I guess we will have to see if some of this early year destruction has caused a drop in the inflation numbers. It could also force Powell's hand to be less hawkish. Sometimes his stupid speeches have more impact than the actual fed policy or interest rate haha. Also war in Ukraine still leaves some shaky conditions. If a peace can be brokered soon in Ukraine that could be a bullish catalyst.

erniencsu02 said:

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wolf howl said:

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Clown show.

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Trump and his economy is the only clown show in town. You guys are morons.

Dude is heading us right into stagflation. What a POS.

Funny thing is if Trump dropped dead of a heart attack the stock market would have it's best day in years. Thats how I know he's a ****ty president. Even Obama was better than this clown LOL

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I have a feeling that if and when Trump gets justifiably blamed for anything, it will be deflation, not stagflation, although it's not evident yet. Funny thing is, prices will drop (my prediction) during his term as he campaigned-promised but he won't get credit for it, because it will be severe, nasty, and extend past his term. Major deflationary forces at work include…

1. China and certain other countries trying to escape their own deflation with stepped-up exports (neutralized somewhat by tariffs).
2. Baby boomers passing fully into retirement with lower birth rates among the succeeding generations.
3. AI.
4. Mass deportation (loss of cheap labor will be more than offset by far fewer consumers of food, fuel, and services)

Gonna be some fancy footwork to pull it off. We must exit the ponzi scheme, we have no choice.