Literally what #daSieve #daNappy and #daChuckster are voting for.

Democrats would vote for the devil himself if the devil ran for president. #kamalaHarris
💥🔥💥🔥💥🔥 https://t.co/QIPMXkYSmq

— FreedomFightersDaughter🇺🇸 (@FrdmFghtrskid) September 23, 2024

Civilized said:

---

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Civilized said:

---

SexualChocolate said:

---

Presidential betting odds as of 9/23

Bet 365

Kamala Harris: -125
Donald Trump: EVEN
via Covers.com

Bovada

Kamala Harris: -130
Donald Trump: +110
BetOnline

Kamala Harris: -130
Donald Trump: +110
Oddschecker

Kamala Harris: -114
Donald Trump: +122

Slight bump to Harris.

---

Seems like this is mostly driven by the uptick of her polling in PA?

---

I love how some bookie in Europe is somehow the trusted oracle of American presidential politics.

---

Prediction markets are useful tools just like polling and prediction models based on polling.

Crowd-sourcing forecasts just has a different set of benefits and limitations.

I like them because people get real when their money is on the line. All the bull**** goes out the window and you start to get a sense of what people actually think is going to happen, not what they want to happen or hope will happen.

---

I hear you, but polling just asks you what you plan to do, and a prediction is inferred from that data.

Betting markets ask you to predict what you think everyone else will do. I guess I'm struggling to understand the source of these betters' predictive powers... especially some guy in Europe who doesn't even have subjective "what's happening in my community" vibes to lean on.

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Civilized said:

---

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Civilized said:

---

SexualChocolate said:

---

Presidential betting odds as of 9/23

Bet 365

Kamala Harris: -125
Donald Trump: EVEN
via Covers.com

Bovada

Kamala Harris: -130
Donald Trump: +110
BetOnline

Kamala Harris: -130
Donald Trump: +110
Oddschecker

Kamala Harris: -114
Donald Trump: +122

Slight bump to Harris.

---

Seems like this is mostly driven by the uptick of her polling in PA?

---

I love how some bookie in Europe is somehow the trusted oracle of American presidential politics.

---

Prediction markets are useful tools just like polling and prediction models based on polling.

Crowd-sourcing forecasts just has a different set of benefits and limitations.

I like them because people get real when their money is on the line. All the bull**** goes out the window and you start to get a sense of what people actually think is going to happen, not what they want to happen or hope will happen.

---

I hear you, but polling just asks you what you plan to do, and a prediction is inferred from that data.

Betting markets ask you to predict what you think everyone else will do. I guess I'm struggling to understand the source of these betters' predictive powers... especially some guy in Europe who doesn't even have subjective "what's happening in my community" vibes to lean on.

---

We don't have a large enough sample size of efficient prediction market action to know how accurate they are relative to polls, but aggregating opinion smooths out noise and bias and potentially elicits opinions from factions not reached by polling.

The markets predicted Biden dropping out way earlier than most pundits did, and also predicted Walz was going to be the Veep selection when talking heads and pundits were still on Shapiro.

You could argue it's a more truthful or transparent or representative way of eliciting opinions than polling or reporting. Polls just report poll results but prediction markets aggregate polls, news, insider info, expert opinions, etc. and cast their "vote" based on reading those tea leaves.

Again, they're fallible - look at the 9x% chance in the markets that predicted Beyonce was going to make an appearance at the DNC as an unserious example - but it is interesting data that's mined from a different source and from sources that have different incentives than polling, and that, to me anyway, makes it interesting.

Civilized said:

---

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Civilized said:

---

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Civilized said:

---

SexualChocolate said:

---

Presidential betting odds as of 9/23

Bet 365

Kamala Harris: -125
Donald Trump: EVEN
via Covers.com

Bovada

Kamala Harris: -130
Donald Trump: +110
BetOnline

Kamala Harris: -130
Donald Trump: +110
Oddschecker

Kamala Harris: -114
Donald Trump: +122

Slight bump to Harris.

---

Seems like this is mostly driven by the uptick of her polling in PA?

---

I love how some bookie in Europe is somehow the trusted oracle of American presidential politics.

---

Prediction markets are useful tools just like polling and prediction models based on polling.

Crowd-sourcing forecasts just has a different set of benefits and limitations.

I like them because people get real when their money is on the line. All the bull**** goes out the window and you start to get a sense of what people actually think is going to happen, not what they want to happen or hope will happen.

---

I hear you, but polling just asks you what you plan to do, and a prediction is inferred from that data.

Betting markets ask you to predict what you think everyone else will do. I guess I'm struggling to understand the source of these betters' predictive powers... especially some guy in Europe who doesn't even have subjective "what's happening in my community" vibes to lean on.

---

We don't have a large enough sample size of efficient prediction market action to know how accurate they are relative to polls, but aggregating opinion smooths out noise and bias and potentially elicits opinions from factions not reached by polling.

The markets predicted Biden dropping out way earlier than most pundits did, and also predicted Walz was going to be the Veep selection when talking heads and pundits were still on Shapiro.

You could argue it's a more truthful or transparent or representative way of eliciting opinions than polling or reporting. Polls just report poll results but prediction markets aggregate polls, news, insider info, expert opinions, etc. and cast their "vote" based on reading those tea leaves.

Again, they're fallible - look at the 9x% chance in the markets that predicted Beyonce was going to make an appearance at the DNC as an unserious example - but it is interesting data that's mined from a different source and from sources that have different incentives than polling, and that, to me anyway, makes it interesting.

---

#Sieve, this sample size isn't enough? You and most others here just mindlessly gobble those polls up....just like plandemic, ya think? #Sieve, size matters, it's been said.

The “crowd” leaving Kamala Harris’ event at the Cobb Energy Center in GA.

Outside of the controlled journalists, staffers, and local democrat leaders, it was most divine 9 fraternity and sorority members. pic.twitter.com/0EVC2UApxs

— Brad Binkley (@freedomactradio) September 20, 2024

#Sieve, you sucked that BS on the plandemic and jabs with a straw....got every bit and still sucking for me. Open your eyes my friend.

👇

Tens of people
show up for Kamala Harris in Atlanta, Georgia today!!!
🤣🤣🤣

Embarrassing 💀😭🤣

🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/MNSu0TUXK5

— BABS D (@Barbara14130169) September 21, 2024

Civilized said:

---

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Civilized said:

---

SexualChocolate said:

---

Presidential betting odds as of 9/23

Bet 365

Kamala Harris: -125
Donald Trump: EVEN
via Covers.com

Bovada

Kamala Harris: -130
Donald Trump: +110
BetOnline

Kamala Harris: -130
Donald Trump: +110
Oddschecker

Kamala Harris: -114
Donald Trump: +122

Slight bump to Harris.

---

Seems like this is mostly driven by the uptick of her polling in PA?

---

I love how some bookie in Europe is somehow the trusted oracle of American presidential politics.

---

Prediction markets/crowd-sourced forecasting isn't the end-all, be-all but it is a data point.

I like that the incentives are much different than in polling. Putting your money on what you truly believe will happen cuts through a lot of the BS/posturing/what you think or want to happen.

---

Bingo!

Civilized said:

---

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Civilized said:

---

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Civilized said:

---

SexualChocolate said:

---

Presidential betting odds as of 9/23

Bet 365

Kamala Harris: -125
Donald Trump: EVEN
via Covers.com

Bovada

Kamala Harris: -130
Donald Trump: +110
BetOnline

Kamala Harris: -130
Donald Trump: +110
Oddschecker

Kamala Harris: -114
Donald Trump: +122

Slight bump to Harris.

---

Seems like this is mostly driven by the uptick of her polling in PA?

---

I love how some bookie in Europe is somehow the trusted oracle of American presidential politics.

---

Prediction markets are useful tools just like polling and prediction models based on polling.

Crowd-sourcing forecasts just has a different set of benefits and limitations.

I like them because people get real when their money is on the line. All the bull**** goes out the window and you start to get a sense of what people actually think is going to happen, not what they want to happen or hope will happen.

---

I hear you, but polling just asks you what you plan to do, and a prediction is inferred from that data.

Betting markets ask you to predict what you think everyone else will do. I guess I'm struggling to understand the source of these betters' predictive powers... especially some guy in Europe who doesn't even have subjective "what's happening in my community" vibes to lean on.

---

We don't have a large enough sample size of efficient prediction market action to know how accurate they are relative to polls, but aggregating opinion smooths out noise and bias and potentially elicits opinions from factions not reached by polling.

The markets predicted Biden dropping out way earlier than most pundits did, and also predicted Walz was going to be the Veep selection when talking heads and pundits were still on Shapiro.

You could argue it's a more truthful or transparent or representative way of eliciting opinions than polling or reporting. Polls just report poll results but prediction markets aggregate polls, news, insider info, expert opinions, etc. and cast their "vote" based on reading those tea leaves.

Again, they're fallible - look at the 9x% chance in the markets that predicted Beyonce was going to make an appearance at the DNC as an unserious example - but it is interesting data that's mined from a different source and from sources that have different incentives than polling, and that, to me anyway, makes it interesting.

---

It's interesting that Polymarket, a well-know hangout for tech bro libertarian wack-a-doodles, also happens to consistently lean pretty far to the right of the other prediction markets. Apparently having skin in the game isn't enough to overcome their biases... as always in politics I guess it comes down to which expert opinions they trust, assuming most betters really do have access to insider info.

Makes me wonder what biases are affecting the other markets. Given that men are twice as likely as women to place a bet, and there's a massive (~30%!!!) gender gap between support for Trump and Harris, that certainly has to show up in the results of all these markets. They're not even close to a representative sample of the electorate.

Of course even if a market really did have a perfectly representative sample of the electorate to iron out potential political biases, there's longshot bias messing with things...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Civilized said:

---

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Civilized said:

---

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Civilized said:

---

SexualChocolate said:

---

Presidential betting odds as of 9/23

Bet 365

Kamala Harris: -125
Donald Trump: EVEN
via Covers.com

Bovada

Kamala Harris: -130
Donald Trump: +110
BetOnline

Kamala Harris: -130
Donald Trump: +110
Oddschecker

Kamala Harris: -114
Donald Trump: +122

Slight bump to Harris.

---

Seems like this is mostly driven by the uptick of her polling in PA?

---

I love how some bookie in Europe is somehow the trusted oracle of American presidential politics.

---

Prediction markets are useful tools just like polling and prediction models based on polling.

Crowd-sourcing forecasts just has a different set of benefits and limitations.

I like them because people get real when their money is on the line. All the bull**** goes out the window and you start to get a sense of what people actually think is going to happen, not what they want to happen or hope will happen.

---

I hear you, but polling just asks you what you plan to do, and a prediction is inferred from that data.

Betting markets ask you to predict what you think everyone else will do. I guess I'm struggling to understand the source of these betters' predictive powers... especially some guy in Europe who doesn't even have subjective "what's happening in my community" vibes to lean on.

---

We don't have a large enough sample size of efficient prediction market action to know how accurate they are relative to polls, but aggregating opinion smooths out noise and bias and potentially elicits opinions from factions not reached by polling.

The markets predicted Biden dropping out way earlier than most pundits did, and also predicted Walz was going to be the Veep selection when talking heads and pundits were still on Shapiro.

You could argue it's a more truthful or transparent or representative way of eliciting opinions than polling or reporting. Polls just report poll results but prediction markets aggregate polls, news, insider info, expert opinions, etc. and cast their "vote" based on reading those tea leaves.

Again, they're fallible - look at the 9x% chance in the markets that predicted Beyonce was going to make an appearance at the DNC as an unserious example - but it is interesting data that's mined from a different source and from sources that have different incentives than polling, and that, to me anyway, makes it interesting.

---

It's interesting that Polymarket, a well-know hangout for tech bro libertarian wack-a-doodles, also happens to consistently lean pretty far to the right of the other prediction markets. Apparently having skin in the game isn't enough to overcome their biases... as always in politics I guess it comes down to which expert opinions they trust, assuming most betters really do have access to insider info.

Makes me wonder what biases are affecting the other markets. Given that men are twice as likely as women to place a bet, and there's a massive (~30%!!!) gender gap between support for Trump and Harris, that certainly has to show up in the results of all these markets. They're not even close to a representative sample of the electorate.

Of course even if a market really did have a perfectly representative sample of the electorate to iron out potential political biases, there's longshot bias messing with things...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias

---

I'll be curious to see it play out.

Right now Polymarket has Harris a 51/48 favorite to win the EC.

Baking everything we know in, including her recent upticks in Penn, that's not a crazy number and aligns with some polling models.

I'm not going to go crazy over it being a little more right-leaning, especially with Trump. We saw in 2016 and 2020 how he's difficult to poll and fairly consistently beats his pre-election polling.

Things are looking good for Trump/Vance based upon mail in /EV in VA, NC and PA. The % increase /decrease from 20 is good for Trump . That coupled with recent reputable polling suggests Trump wins the EC.

Undecided folks always break against current admin. This thing might not be close in the end . We shall see.

Bas2020 said:

---

Things are looking good for Trump/Vance based upon mail in /EV in VA, NC and PA. The % increase /decrease from 20 is good for Trump . That coupled with recent reputable polling suggests Trump wins the EC.

Undecided folks always break against current admin. This thing might not be close in the end . We shall see.

---

LOL I literally just listened to a pod this morning on how poor the science is behind extrapolating from early voting results.

In past elections it hasn't been predictive at all.

I still think KH squeaks out VA in the end but the "trend" will not help her elsewhere. She should be up 5-6 pts in VA not barely winning by 1 pt. The same type of voters that exist in VA, exist in NC, GA and the Rust Belt.

🚨 Bristol City, Virginia has the HIGHEST *new voter rate*... and it went for Trump in 2020 by around 40 points... not a trend you'd want to continue if you're Harris. 40 days to see if it sticks.

"Highest New Voter Rate - Bristol City (9.73%)" https://t.co/U7PaWeKS78

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 25, 2024

Look at the first time voter numbers in Virginia.

Not good for Democrats.

Anyone still arguing high turnout and first time voter presence is good for Democrats, is a dinosaur who needs to retire.

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) September 25, 2024

#NEW NORTH CAROLINA poll

🔴 Trump: 50% (+3)
🔵 Harris: 47%

Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) | Sept. 11-17 | N=600LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 25, 2024

Bas2020 said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Things are looking good for Trump/Vance based upon mail in /EV in VA, NC and PA. The % increase /decrease from 20 is good for Trump . That coupled with recent reputable polling suggests Trump wins the EC.

Undecided folks always break against current admin. This thing might not be close in the end . We shall see.

---

LOL I literally just listened to a pod this morning on how poor the science is behind extrapolating from early voting results.

In past elections it hasn't been predictive at all.

---

Sounds like a lib trying to cope .

We now have real data and registration #s. I'll take that any day of the week over propaganda polls from left sources .

Kamala 's own internals have her losing hence why she is floundering around begging for another debate .

---

The one coping is the one that only post polls on here that look good for Trump, instead of acknowledging the ebb and flow of the race.

And if you think early voting results are predictive, go find evidence of that and post it on here. We both know you won't be able to because it doesn't exist.

Bas2020 said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Things are looking good for Trump/Vance based upon mail in /EV in VA, NC and PA. The % increase /decrease from 20 is good for Trump . That coupled with recent reputable polling suggests Trump wins the EC.

Undecided folks always break against current admin. This thing might not be close in the end . We shall see.

---

LOL I literally just listened to a pod this morning on how poor the science is behind extrapolating from early voting results.

In past elections it hasn't been predictive at all.

---

Sounds like a lib trying to cope .

We now have real data and registration #s. I'll take that any day of the week over propaganda polls from left sources .

Kamala 's own internals have her losing hence why she is floundering around begging for another debate .

---

Wait, so you have absolute trust in mail-in voting numbers now? Or is it total fraud? I can't keep up.

Ohhh, maybe it only becomes fraud if Kamala takes the lead?

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Things are looking good for Trump/Vance based upon mail in /EV in VA, NC and PA. The % increase /decrease from 20 is good for Trump . That coupled with recent reputable polling suggests Trump wins the EC.

Undecided folks always break against current admin. This thing might not be close in the end . We shall see.

---

LOL I literally just listened to a pod this morning on how poor the science is behind extrapolating from early voting results.

In past elections it hasn't been predictive at all.

---

Sounds like a lib trying to cope .

We now have real data and registration #s. I'll take that any day of the week over propaganda polls from left sources .

Kamala 's own internals have her losing hence why she is floundering around begging for another debate .

---

Wait, so you have absolute trust in mail-in voting numbers now? Or is it total fraud? I can't keep up.

Ohhh, maybe it only becomes fraud if Kamala takes the lead?

---

Early Voting already started in Virginia. In person lol.

You do realize that? LOL

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Things are looking good for Trump/Vance based upon mail in /EV in VA, NC and PA. The % increase /decrease from 20 is good for Trump . That coupled with recent reputable polling suggests Trump wins the EC.

Undecided folks always break against current admin. This thing might not be close in the end . We shall see.

---

LOL I literally just listened to a pod this morning on how poor the science is behind extrapolating from early voting results.

In past elections it hasn't been predictive at all.

---

Sounds like a lib trying to cope .

We now have real data and registration #s. I'll take that any day of the week over propaganda polls from left sources .

Kamala 's own internals have her losing hence why she is floundering around begging for another debate .

---

Wait, so you have absolute trust in mail-in voting numbers now, or is it total fraud? I can't keep up.

Ohhh, maybe it only becomes fraud if Kamala takes the lead?

---

Honestly, the "man these polls really look great for Trump, may be a landslide, we'll see" gaslighting comments when staring at a dead heat virtual tossup data with Harris perhaps having a *slight* lead looks more and more like prep for saying the election was stolen again if Harris wins.

Harris appearing to gain or increase her leads in WI, Mich, Penn, NV in the last couple of weeks is definitely not good news for Trump so it's weird to act like isn't at worst a tossup, that a Trump win is likely.

This race is very, very close and there is nothing pointing towards it leaning towards either candidate in a significant way, certainly not that would make anyone believe a landslide is likely at all.

Bas2020 said:

---

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Things are looking good for Trump/Vance based upon mail in /EV in VA, NC and PA. The % increase /decrease from 20 is good for Trump . That coupled with recent reputable polling suggests Trump wins the EC.

Undecided folks always break against current admin. This thing might not be close in the end . We shall see.

---

LOL I literally just listened to a pod this morning on how poor the science is behind extrapolating from early voting results.

In past elections it hasn't been predictive at all.

---

Sounds like a lib trying to cope .

We now have real data and registration #s. I'll take that any day of the week over propaganda polls from left sources .

Kamala 's own internals have her losing hence why she is floundering around begging for another debate .

---

Wait, so you have absolute trust in mail-in voting numbers now? Or is it total fraud? I can't keep up.

Ohhh, maybe it only becomes fraud if Kamala takes the lead?

---

Early Voting already started in Virginia. In person lol.

You do realize that? LOL

---

You literally just said "Things are looking good for Trump/Vance based upon mail in /EV in VA, NC and PA.".

You do realize that? LOL

Civilized said:

---

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Things are looking good for Trump/Vance based upon mail in /EV in VA, NC and PA. The % increase /decrease from 20 is good for Trump . That coupled with recent reputable polling suggests Trump wins the EC.

Undecided folks always break against current admin. This thing might not be close in the end . We shall see.

---

LOL I literally just listened to a pod this morning on how poor the science is behind extrapolating from early voting results.

In past elections it hasn't been predictive at all.

---

Sounds like a lib trying to cope .

We now have real data and registration #s. I'll take that any day of the week over propaganda polls from left sources .

Kamala 's own internals have her losing hence why she is floundering around begging for another debate .

---

Wait, so you have absolute trust in mail-in voting numbers now, or is it total fraud? I can't keep up.

Ohhh, maybe it only becomes fraud if Kamala takes the lead?

---

Honestly, the "man these polls really look great for Trump, may be a landslide, we'll see" gaslighting comments when staring at a dead heat virtual tossup data with Harris perhaps having a *slight* lead looks more and more like prep for saying the election was stolen again if Harris wins.

Harris appearing to gain or increase her leads in WI, Mich, Penn, NV in the last couple of weeks is definitely not good news for Trump so it's weird to act like isn't at worst a tossup, that a Trump win is likely.

This race is very, very close and there is nothing pointing towards it leaning towards either candidate in a significant way, certainly not that would make anyone believe a landslide is likely at all.

---

Yup, it's the same reason they've suddenly become obsessed with how long it takes to count the votes after polls close. Find the places where Republican precincts are all counted first, and then when they finally add in the Dem precincts use that as "proof" that the election was stolen... "Just LOOK at how the numbers suddenly jumped up!".

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Civilized said:

---

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Things are looking good for Trump/Vance based upon mail in /EV in VA, NC and PA. The % increase /decrease from 20 is good for Trump . That coupled with recent reputable polling suggests Trump wins the EC.

Undecided folks always break against current admin. This thing might not be close in the end . We shall see.

---

LOL I literally just listened to a pod this morning on how poor the science is behind extrapolating from early voting results.

In past elections it hasn't been predictive at all.

---

Sounds like a lib trying to cope .

We now have real data and registration #s. I'll take that any day of the week over propaganda polls from left sources .

Kamala 's own internals have her losing hence why she is floundering around begging for another debate .

---

Wait, so you have absolute trust in mail-in voting numbers now, or is it total fraud? I can't keep up.

Ohhh, maybe it only becomes fraud if Kamala takes the lead?

---

Honestly, the "man these polls really look great for Trump, may be a landslide, we'll see" gaslighting comments when staring at a dead heat virtual tossup data with Harris perhaps having a *slight* lead looks more and more like prep for saying the election was stolen again if Harris wins.

Harris appearing to gain or increase her leads in WI, Mich, Penn, NV in the last couple of weeks is definitely not good news for Trump so it's weird to act like isn't at worst a tossup, that a Trump win is likely.

This race is very, very close and there is nothing pointing towards it leaning towards either candidate in a significant way, certainly not that would make anyone believe a landslide is likely at all.

---

Yup, it's the same reason they've suddenly become obsessed with how long it takes to count the votes after polls close. Find the places where Republican precincts are all counted first, and then when they finally add in the Dem precincts use that as "proof" that the election was stolen... "Just LOOK at how the numbers suddenly jumped up!".

---

LOL yeah the "I was up watching Spectrum News at 11:30 PM on election night and saw Biden's numbers jump in a way that can only be from cheating!!11" as a serious attempt at election security analysis would be the basis for a great SNL skit, except it was used as the reason to riot and attack the capital and try to overturn the election.

Wild.

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Things are looking good for Trump/Vance based upon mail in /EV in VA, NC and PA. The % increase /decrease from 20 is good for Trump . That coupled with recent reputable polling suggests Trump wins the EC.

Undecided folks always break against current admin. This thing might not be close in the end . We shall see.

---

LOL I literally just listened to a pod this morning on how poor the science is behind extrapolating from early voting results.

In past elections it hasn't been predictive at all.

---

Sounds like a lib trying to cope .

We now have real data and registration #s. I'll take that any day of the week over propaganda polls from left sources .

Kamala 's own internals have her losing hence why she is floundering around begging for another debate .

---

Wait, so you have absolute trust in mail-in voting numbers now? Or is it total fraud? I can't keep up.

Ohhh, maybe it only becomes fraud if Kamala takes the lead?

---

Early Voting already started in Virginia. In person lol.

You do realize that? LOL

---

You literally just said "Things are looking good for Trump/Vance based upon mail in /EV in VA, NC and PA.".

You do realize that? LOL

---

EV= early voting

Lord help us lol

TheStorm said:

---

Civilized said:

---

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Civilized said:

---

SmaptyWolf said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Things are looking good for Trump/Vance based upon mail in /EV in VA, NC and PA. The % increase /decrease from 20 is good for Trump . That coupled with recent reputable polling suggests Trump wins the EC.

Undecided folks always break against current admin. This thing might not be close in the end . We shall see.

---

LOL I literally just listened to a pod this morning on how poor the science is behind extrapolating from early voting results.

In past elections it hasn't been predictive at all.

---

Sounds like a lib trying to cope .

We now have real data and registration #s. I'll take that any day of the week over propaganda polls from left sources .

Kamala 's own internals have her losing hence why she is floundering around begging for another debate .

---

Wait, so you have absolute trust in mail-in voting numbers now, or is it total fraud? I can't keep up.

Ohhh, maybe it only becomes fraud if Kamala takes the lead?

---

Honestly, the "man these polls really look great for Trump, may be a landslide, we'll see" gaslighting comments when staring at a dead heat virtual tossup data with Harris perhaps having a *slight* lead looks more and more like prep for saying the election was stolen again if Harris wins.

Harris appearing to gain or increase her leads in WI, Mich, Penn, NV in the last couple of weeks is definitely not good news for Trump so it's weird to act like isn't at worst a tossup, that a Trump win is likely.

This race is very, very close and there is nothing pointing towards it leaning towards either candidate in a significant way, certainly not that would make anyone believe a landslide is likely at all.

---

Yup, it's the same reason they've suddenly become obsessed with how long it takes to count the votes after polls close. Find the places where Republican precincts are all counted first, and then when they finally add in the Dem precincts use that as "proof" that the election was stolen... "Just LOOK at how the numbers suddenly jumped up!".

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LOL yeah the "I was up watching Spectrum News at 11:30 PM on election night and saw Biden's numbers jump in a way that can only be from cheating!!11" as a serious attempt at election security analysis would be the basis for a great SNL skit, except it was used as the reason to riot and attack the capital and try to overturn the election.

Wild.

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Nobody in their right mind would be watching Spectrum News for any national election results... good one there, Civ - and I know it is directed at me also.

I've been here long enough to know that you know better and know more about anything and everything than all the other posters here combined...

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Good to see you, buddy.

Hope all is well down east!

Civilized said:

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Ground_Chuck said:

---

This is the passage from the short story. This is it.

Quote:

---

It was not the summer you fell in love with your cousin Dozie because that happened a few summers before, when you both wiggled into the tiny space behind Grandmama's garage and he tried to fit what you both called his banana into what you both called your tomato but neither of you was sure which was the right hole. It was, however, the summer you got lice, and you and Dozie dug through your thick hair to find the tiny black insects and squash them against your fingernails and laugh at the tart sound of their blood-filled bellies bursting. It was the summer you discovered that the strongest of your emotions developed in direct proportion to one another: that your hate for your brother Nonso grew so much you felt it squeezing your nostrils while your love for your cousin Dozie ballooned and wrapped around your skin.

---

---

This is a run-of-the-mill coming of age piece of literature it sounds like.

I think it's hilarious how putting words to situations that teenagers actually go through as they figure out the world around them, including relationships and their bodies, offends the pearl clutchers. Did any of these people that are offended by this have to read Siddhartha or Clan of the Cave Bear? Did those books irreparably harm their psyche?

Let's burn all the books that reference anything sexual, go back to teaching abstinence in schools, and see if we are better off!

Amanchukwu definitely gives off repressed Mark Robinson vibes.

---

Do you think things improved since teaching some of the stuff you are calling "pearl clutching"?

caryking said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Ground_Chuck said:

---

This is the passage from the short story. This is it.

Quote:

---

It was not the summer you fell in love with your cousin Dozie because that happened a few summers before, when you both wiggled into the tiny space behind Grandmama's garage and he tried to fit what you both called his banana into what you both called your tomato but neither of you was sure which was the right hole. It was, however, the summer you got lice, and you and Dozie dug through your thick hair to find the tiny black insects and squash them against your fingernails and laugh at the tart sound of their blood-filled bellies bursting. It was the summer you discovered that the strongest of your emotions developed in direct proportion to one another: that your hate for your brother Nonso grew so much you felt it squeezing your nostrils while your love for your cousin Dozie ballooned and wrapped around your skin.

---

---

This is a run-of-the-mill coming of age piece of literature it sounds like.

I think it's hilarious how putting words to situations that teenagers actually go through as they figure out the world around them, including relationships and their bodies, offends the pearl clutchers. Did any of these people that are offended by this have to read Siddhartha or Clan of the Cave Bear? Did those books irreparably harm their psyche?

Let's burn all the books that reference anything sexual, go back to teaching abstinence in schools, and see if we are better off!

Amanchukwu definitely gives off repressed Mark Robinson vibes.

---

Do you think things improved since teaching some of the stuff you are calling "pearl clutching"?

---

You talking about reading books with sexual references or my comment about teaching abstinence?

Slightly down-ballot, the Montana race has been viewed as the road back to GOP Senate control. Sheehy does have a significant polling lead there but that's not stopping the DNC from pumping in money to try and prop up Tester. What's surprising is that Sherrod Brown's opponent in Ohio may have a 1-2 point lead there, although the numbers may mean squat for all I know….but the surprise is, and what may be telling, is that the DNC isn't putting money in that race. Maybe they don't think they need to, Brown has been a hell of a retail politician all of his career. But maybe the increasingly red populace is also ready for a change, and the DNC has access to internals suggesting it's time to write off this ex-battleground state.

Civilized said:

---

caryking said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Ground_Chuck said:

---

This is the passage from the short story. This is it.

Quote:

---

It was not the summer you fell in love with your cousin Dozie because that happened a few summers before, when you both wiggled into the tiny space behind Grandmama's garage and he tried to fit what you both called his banana into what you both called your tomato but neither of you was sure which was the right hole. It was, however, the summer you got lice, and you and Dozie dug through your thick hair to find the tiny black insects and squash them against your fingernails and laugh at the tart sound of their blood-filled bellies bursting. It was the summer you discovered that the strongest of your emotions developed in direct proportion to one another: that your hate for your brother Nonso grew so much you felt it squeezing your nostrils while your love for your cousin Dozie ballooned and wrapped around your skin.

---

---

This is a run-of-the-mill coming of age piece of literature it sounds like.

I think it's hilarious how putting words to situations that teenagers actually go through as they figure out the world around them, including relationships and their bodies, offends the pearl clutchers. Did any of these people that are offended by this have to read Siddhartha or Clan of the Cave Bear? Did those books irreparably harm their psyche?

Let's burn all the books that reference anything sexual, go back to teaching abstinence in schools, and see if we are better off!

Amanchukwu definitely gives off repressed Mark Robinson vibes.

---

Do you think things improved since teaching some of the stuff you are calling "pearl clutching"?

---

You talking about reading books with sexual references or my comment about teaching abstinence?

---

Your choice

caryking said:

---

Civilized said:

---

caryking said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Ground_Chuck said:

---

This is the passage from the short story. This is it.

Quote:

---

It was not the summer you fell in love with your cousin Dozie because that happened a few summers before, when you both wiggled into the tiny space behind Grandmama's garage and he tried to fit what you both called his banana into what you both called your tomato but neither of you was sure which was the right hole. It was, however, the summer you got lice, and you and Dozie dug through your thick hair to find the tiny black insects and squash them against your fingernails and laugh at the tart sound of their blood-filled bellies bursting. It was the summer you discovered that the strongest of your emotions developed in direct proportion to one another: that your hate for your brother Nonso grew so much you felt it squeezing your nostrils while your love for your cousin Dozie ballooned and wrapped around your skin.

---

---

This is a run-of-the-mill coming of age piece of literature it sounds like.

I think it's hilarious how putting words to situations that teenagers actually go through as they figure out the world around them, including relationships and their bodies, offends the pearl clutchers. Did any of these people that are offended by this have to read Siddhartha or Clan of the Cave Bear? Did those books irreparably harm their psyche?

Let's burn all the books that reference anything sexual, go back to teaching abstinence in schools, and see if we are better off!

Amanchukwu definitely gives off repressed Mark Robinson vibes.

---

Do you think things improved since teaching some of the stuff you are calling "pearl clutching"?

---

You talking about reading books with sexual references or my comment about teaching abstinence?

---

Your choice

---

Yes, I think things have definitely improved socially in schools basically across the board over the last few decades with the exception of school mass shootings.

Drug use, alcohol use, smoking, teen pregnancy, crime, violent crime, and dropout rates are all down considerably over the last 30 years and college attendance is up.

Civilized said:

---

caryking said:

---

Civilized said:

---

caryking said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Ground_Chuck said:

---

This is the passage from the short story. This is it.

Quote:

---

It was not the summer you fell in love with your cousin Dozie because that happened a few summers before, when you both wiggled into the tiny space behind Grandmama's garage and he tried to fit what you both called his banana into what you both called your tomato but neither of you was sure which was the right hole. It was, however, the summer you got lice, and you and Dozie dug through your thick hair to find the tiny black insects and squash them against your fingernails and laugh at the tart sound of their blood-filled bellies bursting. It was the summer you discovered that the strongest of your emotions developed in direct proportion to one another: that your hate for your brother Nonso grew so much you felt it squeezing your nostrils while your love for your cousin Dozie ballooned and wrapped around your skin.

---

---

This is a run-of-the-mill coming of age piece of literature it sounds like.

I think it's hilarious how putting words to situations that teenagers actually go through as they figure out the world around them, including relationships and their bodies, offends the pearl clutchers. Did any of these people that are offended by this have to read Siddhartha or Clan of the Cave Bear? Did those books irreparably harm their psyche?

Let's burn all the books that reference anything sexual, go back to teaching abstinence in schools, and see if we are better off!

Amanchukwu definitely gives off repressed Mark Robinson vibes.

---

Do you think things improved since teaching some of the stuff you are calling "pearl clutching"?

---

You talking about reading books with sexual references or my comment about teaching abstinence?

---

Your choice

---

Yes, I think things have definitely improved socially in schools basically across the board over the last few decades with the exception of school mass shootings.

Drug use, alcohol use, smoking, teen pregnancy, crime, violent crime, and dropout rates are all down considerably over the last 30 years and college attendance is up.

---

"As da Sieve's Matrix Turns"

Manhattan New York Residents Are Losing It On Democrats Over Lying About Illegal Migrant Crime Rates

“They give you all their fake their fake statistics. Well, if you don't arrest nobody, you don't have no statistics.”

“A 100 murders in 466 days in office. Never before are both… pic.twitter.com/OgCZtbAqBE

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) September 25, 2024

Out of control federal bureaucracy by a corrupt tyrannical FBI protecting the status quo. LIsten carefully to the warning of this whistleblower.

When a Whistleblower steps down and asks you to be prepared…please listen…because they know things that they cannot say out loud. pic.twitter.com/jzJ8t6wH2b

— Liz Churchill (@liz_churchill10) September 25, 2024

Some clown that has popped in and out here had a recent exchange with Cary. This clown typifies the low information voter that has this country in the dire straits it's in now. An informed public is essential to the survival of our constitutional republic. Turn off the fake news and remove yourself from the matrix.

Holy shlit. Democrat delegate to the US House of Representatives accidentally says the quiet part out loud.

She admits the DOJ and FBI are weaponized to go after people with opposing views.

The DOJ and FBI "serve as a check against white nationalism, great replacement… pic.twitter.com/KRIVtAwCkM

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) September 25, 2024

Civilized said:

---

caryking said:

---

Civilized said:

---

caryking said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Ground_Chuck said:

---

This is the passage from the short story. This is it.

Quote:

---

It was not the summer you fell in love with your cousin Dozie because that happened a few summers before, when you both wiggled into the tiny space behind Grandmama's garage and he tried to fit what you both called his banana into what you both called your tomato but neither of you was sure which was the right hole. It was, however, the summer you got lice, and you and Dozie dug through your thick hair to find the tiny black insects and squash them against your fingernails and laugh at the tart sound of their blood-filled bellies bursting. It was the summer you discovered that the strongest of your emotions developed in direct proportion to one another: that your hate for your brother Nonso grew so much you felt it squeezing your nostrils while your love for your cousin Dozie ballooned and wrapped around your skin.

---

---

This is a run-of-the-mill coming of age piece of literature it sounds like.

I think it's hilarious how putting words to situations that teenagers actually go through as they figure out the world around them, including relationships and their bodies, offends the pearl clutchers. Did any of these people that are offended by this have to read Siddhartha or Clan of the Cave Bear? Did those books irreparably harm their psyche?

Let's burn all the books that reference anything sexual, go back to teaching abstinence in schools, and see if we are better off!

Amanchukwu definitely gives off repressed Mark Robinson vibes.

---

Do you think things improved since teaching some of the stuff you are calling "pearl clutching"?

---

You talking about reading books with sexual references or my comment about teaching abstinence?

---

Your choice

---

Yes, I think things have definitely improved socially in schools basically across the board over the last few decades with the exception of school mass shootings.

Drug use, alcohol use, smoking, teen pregnancy, crime, violent crime, and dropout rates are all down considerably over the last 30 years and college attendance is up.

---

Ok…

LOL, no way in he$$ this guy wants a hand count....claims a hand count is less accuerate than the digital (Dominion) count.

I bet the hand count is less accurate than Dominion by several hundred thousand votes...............LMAO

Leftist Senator Raphael Warnock Claims Georgia's Hand-Counted Ballot Rules Subvert Democracy (VIDEO) | The Gateway Pundit | by Ben Kew

#relentless #fraud #theft #authoritarianism

WTAF:

"The Democrat Party recently announced its plan to

register 9 million UOCAVA voters

for the upcoming election, despite government tracking numbers revealing

only 2.4 million eligible overseas voters."

That's 6.6 million more than actual voters. https://t.co/AsegxdKc4h pic.twitter.com/zWWyFjMEB4

— Chris (@ChrizDDv3) September 21, 2024