2026 College Baseball regional projections

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Wolfer79
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11:49a, 4/1/26
#2 seed in Los Angeles
https://d1baseball.com/stories/2026-field-of-64-projections-midseason-edition/
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Wolfer79
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4:20p, 4/14/26
Latest Field of 64 Projections

Another week is in the books and we have our latest Field of 64, which includes three new teams since our midseason field.

#3 seed at #16 national seed Kansas

https://d1baseball.com/stories/2026-field-of-64-projections-april-14/?utm_content=buffer3ed11&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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Wolfer79
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3:35p, 4/21/26

April 21

Not in field of 64
Not in 1st 4 out
Not in next 4 out


Says 8 from ACC but I count 7

https://d1baseball.com/stories/2026-ncaa-field-of-64-projections-april-21/?utm_content=bufferb59b6&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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wilmwolf
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In reply to Wolfer79 • 5:17p, 4/21/26
When I click it says we're still 3 at Kansas regional, one of last four in. Maybe they've corrected it.
Wise men speak because they have something to say. Fools speak because they have to say something

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Wolfer79
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In reply to wilmwolf • 5:29p, 4/21/26
wilmwolf said:
When I click it says we're still 3 at Kansas regional, one of last four in. Maybe they've corrected it.


It appears they did,
Thank you

Update

Last Four In
Purdue
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
NC State

https://d1baseball.com/stories/2026-ncaa-field-of-64-projections-april-21/
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FLWolf
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6:12a, 4/22/26
lets win 2 of 3 this weekend
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ctpack
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3:33p, 4/22/26
We need to at the very least go 6-6 these last four series. With our terrible early season schedule and current RPI because of it, we may need to do better than that. If Marohn is done, getting 6 will be a challenge. This weekend and the Sanford series are pretty must win series. Miami will be tough even at home, and unfortunately the Cheaters appear to be at another level currently. Be good to at least get one against them which will greatly help RPI.
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wilmwolf
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In reply to ctpack • 4:02p, 4/22/26
I don't put a whole lot of stock in predictive metrics, but Warren Nolan has is finishing 15-15 in the league with an RPI of 42 and SOS of 28. Those last two are pretty much in line with where we finished last year. Three of our final four series are against teams above us in RPI, so there should be opportunity to improve there as well. Hopefully that happens.
Wise men speak because they have something to say. Fools speak because they have to say something

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PGAWolf
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In reply to ctpack • 6:08p, 4/22/26
ctpack said:
We need to at the very least go 6-6 these last four series. With our terrible early season schedule and current RPI because of it, we may need to do better than that. If Marohn is done, getting 6 will be a challenge. This weekend and the Sanford series are pretty must win series. Miami will be tough even at home, and unfortunately the Cheaters appear to be at another level currently. Be good to at least get one against them which will greatly help RPI.

I can't see a world where the ACC only gets 7 bids and as things currently stand everyone after State has suspect resumes.

6-6 will get you in 5-7 could go either way.


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EthanBarry
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8:57p, 4/22/26
Staff
If you watch the Nerdcast this week, they actually forgot to include State at the end. The "last team in" designation isn't correct, that's just where they slotted State after forgetting them in bubble talk.
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wbkook
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In reply to wilmwolf • 11:10p, 4/22/26
wilmwolf said:
I don't put a whole lot of stock in predictive metrics, but Warren Nolan has is finishing 15-15 in the league with an RPI of 42 and SOS of 28. Those last two are pretty much in line with where we finished last year. Three of our final four series are against teams above us in RPI, so there should be opportunity to improve there as well. Hopefully that happens.


They can boat race NC A&T and their RPI is going to take a hit. They need to fire their scheduler.
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PGAWolf
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In reply to wbkook • 11:19p, 4/22/26
wbkook said:
wilmwolf said:
I don't put a whole lot of stock in predictive metrics, but Warren Nolan has is finishing 15-15 in the league with an RPI of 42 and SOS of 28. Those last two are pretty much in line with where we finished last year. Three of our final four series are against teams above us in RPI, so there should be opportunity to improve there as well. Hopefully that happens.


They can boat race NC A&T and their RPI is going to take a hit. They need to fire their scheduler.


Need someone to leave the sprinklers on overnight
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Wolfer79
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4:08p, 4/28/26
Last Four In
Texas State
NC State
Pittsburgh
Vanderbilt

https://d1baseball.com/stories/2026-ncaa-field-of-64-projections-april-28/?utm_content=buffer57411&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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Wolfer79
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9:50a, 4/29/26
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Wolfer79
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8:10a, 5/4/26
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wbkook
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In reply to Wolfer79 • 9:55a, 5/4/26
Wolfer79 said:


Yesh I dont trust a lot if that.
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Alex Gee
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In reply to wbkook • 10:23a, 5/4/26
Staff
wbkook said:
Wolfer79 said:


Yesh I dont trust a lot if that.


Clemson is going to be a test on RPI. They finish with Coastal, FSU, VT

They can't get to .500 in the ACC even with two sweeps and are likely going to finish 11-18/12-17.

I dont know how that can get you into the tournament even with an RPI in the 30s
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Tom OBriens Smile
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In reply to Alex Gee • 10:30a, 5/4/26
Alex Gee said:
wbkook said:
Wolfer79 said:


Yesh I dont trust a lot if that.


Clemson is going to be a test on RPI. They finish with Coastal, FSU, VT

They can't get to .500 in the ACC even with two sweeps and are likely going to finish 11-18/12-17.

I dont know how that can get you into the tournament even with an RPI in the 30s


Do we actually know if they care about conference records, especially now? It feels so unimportant as we've gotten more metric based over the years and with super conferences making things even more out of balance.

Doesn't seem to matter to basketball, has the baseball committee stated it does?
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Alex Gee
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In reply to Tom OBriens Smile • 10:45a, 5/4/26
Staff
Florida got in the 2024 tournament with a 13-17 record, but their RPI was very high iirc.
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stategrad06
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10:55a, 5/4/26
I personally think Clemson has to get to at least 12 conference wins to be considered - they do have 7 Q1 games left - @Coastal (1), Vs. FSU (3), @ VT (3) so who knows. But 11-19 and an RPI in the upper 30's seems like a stretch.
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EthanBarry
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11:04a, 5/4/26
Staff
Clemson is way out at this point. As AG said, 13 wins is the minimum to even get in discussion but even that is rare and not sure if it's happened outside of SEC. The craziest part of that projection is UGA not hosting.
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FLWolf
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11:07a, 5/4/26
CU is cooked unless they have an unreal finish
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stategrad06
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In reply to EthanBarry • 11:22a, 5/4/26
EthanBarry said:
Clemson is way out at this point. As AG said, 13 wins is the minimum to even get in discussion but even that is rare and not sure if it's happened outside of SEC. The craziest part of that projection is UGA not hosting.

I really do agree that 13 is probably the number for them - but where they stand now if they get 2 vs FSU and 2 @Vt and pickup a midweek vs Coastal - would be interested to see where that RPI lands.
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Mandras
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In reply to EthanBarry • 1:18p, 5/4/26
Agree. They lead the sec by like 2.5 games i think... no way they're not a top 8 (even if they're 20 in rpi)
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boguesound
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In reply to wbkook • 9:45a, 5/5/26
wbkook said:
Wolfer79 said:


Yesh I dont trust a lot if that.


UGA is #5 in the country.
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Wolfer79
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4:34p, 5/5/26
#3 seed in Tuscaloosa with #11 national seed Alabama

https://d1baseball.com/stories/2026-ncaa-field-of-64-projections-may-5/?utm_content=buffer10d39&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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Wolfer79
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5:25p, 5/5/26
Baseball America

NC State Reenters The Picture
NC State's series win over Miami was one of the most significant results of the week for the tournament picture. The Wolfpack, previously just outside the field, received a meaningful metrics boost and moved back onto the right side of the bubble.

It remains a precarious position, with series at Stanford and at home against North Carolina still to come. A series win on the West Coast and avoiding a sweep against the Tar Heels should be enough for a team that appears to have stabilized its season against Miami.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2026-ncaa-baseball-tournament-bracket-projected-field-of-64-may-5/
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FLWolf
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7:22a, 5/6/26
Clemson making a late push
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ICW Wolf
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In reply to Wolfer79 • 8:27a, 5/6/26
Wolfer79 said:
#3 seed in Tuscaloosa with #11 national seed Alabama

https://d1baseball.com/stories/2026-ncaa-field-of-64-projections-may-5/?utm_content=buffer10d39&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer


Sign me up
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kmb717
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2:05p, 5/12/26
A somewhat favorable projection from BA which is surprising.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2026-ncaa-baseball-tournament-bracket-projected-field-of-64-may-12/
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Wolfer79
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3:40p, 5/12/26
https://d1baseball.com/stories/2026-ncaa-field-of-64-projections-may-12/

#3 seed in Starkville
#12 national seed Mississippi State

Not one of last four in
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Wolfpack91
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In reply to Wolfer79 • 4:30p, 5/12/26
Wolfer79 said:
https://d1baseball.com/stories/2026-ncaa-field-of-64-projections-may-12/

#3 seed in Starkville
#12 national seed Mississippi State

Not one of last four in

Color me surprised. Take it.
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Wolfer79
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8:13a, 5/15/26
The morning of May 15th
RPI 47 per warrennolan.com
#Pack9 predicted to lose remaining regular season games and finish with RPI 53

https://www.warrennolan.com/college-baseball/conference/standings/_/season/2026/conference/ACC
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Wolfer79
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9:01a, 5/16/26
Saturday am
RPI #51
https://www.warrennolan.com/college-baseball/conference/standings/_/season/2026/conference/ACC
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Ltsheets
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In reply to Wolfer79 • 1:06p, 5/17/26
RPI #42 this morning.
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