Rob McLamb said:
Jtilley said:
You typically don't see a "Hard sign" drafted in the 4th round, not saying it doesn't happen but that typically means there is a deal already in place and Toronto floated him there.
Most of your harder signs will be after the 10th round where teams will draft a guy as insurance incase something happens with one of their higher picks.
Exactly, and there can be guys that go slot or under slot because of preexisting verbal agreements before the draft. One of the more famous ones was Atlanta taking Chipper Jones instead of Todd Van Poppel with the first overall pick in 1990. Jones took less than he had to (I don't know if there were slots then) while Van Poppel acted as though he did not want to play for Atlanta. If they pick you that high, they usually think they will sign you (Mets/Rocker is an exception).
To an earlier point, it is not as common to go below slot earlier in the draft because the picks in the back end of the draft can just be high school guys where it is known that they won't be signed, which is where the allocated money catches up because that portion is not used.
That being said, I am not really sure if most fourth-round picks that are offered slot pay would go to college unless it was an SEC school where there is more NIL opportunity. The slot pay for Maroudis is 547k, which over three years (the amount of time he would be forced to go to school if he turned it down) works out to 182k annually. Who has a job that pays more? Not many folks.
A college degree can be something that a person goes back to get. If he bombs out in six or seven years and is judicious with the money he signed for, the high school kid would then be 25 years old with around a quarter-million stashed. He could go back to school, immediately begin coaching in the minors, or both. I just don't see how most would turn that down, although there have been some who did.
1990? Things have changed a ton since 1990
Sure, $550K is a lot of money but if Landen is as good as we (and the Jays) think he is, he's going to make much more than that in 3 years in the 2026 draft. Ain't got nothing to do with a degree but about betting on yourself if the Jays don't pay up. But, to everyone's point, there's a 99.998% chance there was already a deal agreed upon before that pick was made. IMO, it's going to be well above the slotted number of $547K, (broken record) if not, he's got the worst advisors on earth or was never a tough sign in the first place.
The Bluejays drafted exactly like a team that is going to have to overpay one or both of their early HS draft picks. The did select a HS kid from Victoria, BC but his slot value is just over $175K. I'll wager he gets a hair over that. The 6 college kids will get slot or below. The kid from Oregon will be lucky to get $75K (IMO) as he's got zero leverage as a 5th year kid.
A quick look at last year shows that of the 5 high school SS drafted in the first round last year, 2 signed for over the slotted amount. One was $214K over (Temarr Johnson Pirates) and the other was $7,100 (Cole Young, one time duke commit to Seattle) over. The other 3 signed for much less. Jackson Holliday signed for 656K less, Mikey Romero $676K less and Jett Williams signed for $343K less than the slotted amount.
In the 2021 draft, 8 high school SS were drafted in the first round. 2 signed for slot exactly, 4 signed over slot and 2 signed under slot. The 4 over slot guys ranged from $970K over (Jordan Lawler DBacks), $795K (Kahlil Watson Marlins), $452K over (Brady House Nationals) and Max Muncy to the A's for $109K over.
I love digging into this data b/c I think we get a general idea how this stuff is going to work out. Obviously each draft cycle is different but there's a lot that stays static. Typically right handed HS pitchers are the riskiest draft choices so if they're picked early, they're going to get signed. Otherwise MLB teams leave them alone and they drop. Brock Porter last year is a good example, he fell to the 4th round and signed for 3.7 mil.
Good news is we probably won't have to wait very long to find out.
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