CRITICAL QUESTIONS: Florida State

Members of the Inside Pack Sports staff answer several critical questions facing NC State heading into the ACC opener against Florida State.

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Last week against Furman, NC State had its best rushing effort of the year, totaling 242 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.  Do you expect the Pack to place as much of an emphasis on running the ball this week against Florida State?

James Henderson: Well, I think NC State will have to be able to run the football some because you are going to want to win the time of possession battle and also limit potential turnovers against FSU's potent offense.

Establishing a ground game can help State's offense and defense in this matchup, so it's certainly important.

Rob McLamb: At this point, it seems as though NC State will be a team that throws the ball anywhere from 60-to-75 percent of the time depending on game circumstances. Some of the short passes the Pack's throws at the opposition simulate a running game in that it is akin to spacing out the defense with wide runs.
 
It will be interesting to see how the jet and orbit running attack fares for NC State. FSU has terrific team speed so the pursuit will likely be strong.
 
Bryant Carson: Yes, I would expect State to try and get their ground game going on Saturday. Obviously, the performance against Furman was a step in the right direction but how much of that was State getting better versus how much of it was simply playing Furman remains to be seen.

I do think having the preferred starting OL in there made a difference last Saturday and will do so again this week.
 
Jackson Williford: I think it’s important that State establish a running game, but I’m not sure what kind of success they’ll have against Florida State’s nasty defensive front.  I honestly expect the Pack to have to set up the run with the pass on Saturday.  You may see frequent check downs and short throws to move the ball in small chunks if they can’t get the rushing attack in rhythm.

James Henderson: I believe NC State has a better passing game than Alabama so it's hard to compare, but for the Wolfpack, they'll work to exploit matchups.

Florida State plays a lot of man defense, and last year State "won" frequently against FSU's safeties and linebackers.  I expect State to try and scheme up some of those same opportunities through the air on Saturday.

Rob McLamb: Basically to be successful in the passing game at any level requires making the right reads. Ryan Finley has completed over 75 percent of his passes, so if he cannot be trusted then the Wolfpack will be in serious trouble.

Bryant Carson: Well, being able to establish a reasonable run-game threat early on would probably help a lot. Past that I think the Pack would be wise to simply make things easy on themselves. Give Finley the opportunity to get going with some quick, high-percentage stuff to the steady play-makers—Samuels, Harmon, Louis, Hines.

I know FSU has some very talented guys in their secondary but State has so many proven weapons all across the offense—you’ve got to trust those guys to do their job no matter what.
 
Jackson Williford: I think the main focus for State’s passing offense should be taking what the defense gives you.  Florida State has an incredibly talented secondary, but State has a wealth of playmakers that can certainly get the job done and win some of those battles.  Getting Kelvin Harmon and Stephen Louis involved, and moving Jaylen Samuels around the formation should generate some momentum early on.
 
NC State also needs to make sure they hold onto the ball.  Ryan Finley needs to avoid forcing throws, and the Pack’s receivers and backs need to make sure they’re possessing the ball all the way to the ground.  I don’t think the Pack can get away with losing the turnover battle this week, and they’ll likely need a significantly positive (+2 or more) turnover margin to have a shot.

After losing star quarterback Deondre Francois to a season-ending injury, Florida State will be starting true freshman quarterback James Blackman on Saturday.  What kind of defensive gameplan do you expect the Pack to utilize to keep him off balance in his first collegiate start?

James Henderson: My No. 1 goal would be stopping the run.  NC State has to force Blackman to be a playmaker... make him win the game for Florida State, don't let the Seminoles win it with defense, special teams, and the running game.

I'm not sure if he's ready to do that in his first ever start, and I think if you put him in position frequently where he has to make plays to win the game, that should benefit the Wolfpack.

Rob McLamb: It will be one of the adjustments. FSU will adjust its offense to fit around Blackman or a potential backup, as the Seminoles were forced to turn to against NC State in Tallahassee two seasons ago. The Wolfpack will have to figure out what threat Florida State represents on the fly and cope with it effectively.
 
The team that makes the quickest adjustments and is most judicious in its decision-making process will likely win.

Bryant Carson: I think the theme for Saturday should be ‘go get him.' Going back and watching HS film on Blackman (keeping in mind that watching HS highlight film can only paint so much of the full picture) he’s a tall, lanky, strong-armed QB that would prefer to stay in the pocket and throw up the sideline (made me think of Brad Kaaya). If Blackman has time and stays clean in the pocket distributing to FSU’s talented offensive skill guys against NCSU’s shaky secondary…well, it’ll likely be a long day in FL for the Pack.

However, when Blackman was rushed/hurried in the pocket he showed the propensity to get rid of the ball quickly off his back foot—something he got away with in HS but is not so easily done at the college level.

In my opinion, State should mix in blitzes from all over Saturday. Further, this could be a game where you see Street and/or Roseboro slide inside on some 3rd and longs to get extra pass rushers on the field—could be a big opportunity game for a guy like Roseboro—who, in my opinion, may be State’s best and most versatile pass-rusher.
 
Jackson Williford: State has to find a way to get to Blackman early and often.  That won’t be easy, considering Florida State fields a skilled, experienced offensive line that will make it difficult for the Pack to get pressure up front.

Blackman, though we haven’t seen him play a collegiate snap yet, seems to be a quarterback who likes to stay in the pocket.  He has a very strong arm, and if he’s given enough time I think he could do some serious damage to NC State’s secondary, that isn’t yet at 100%. 
 
Regardless of Blackman’s talent level, the transition from high school football to college football is usually a significant one. Blackman’s first test will be against a talented Pack front, and if they can continuously get him on the ground and force him into making throws he doesn’t want to make, I think the Pack has a shot.  In my opinion, State’s defensive line battling against FSU’s offensive line is the single most important matchup this Saturday.

Florida State’s defense is experienced and arguably one of the most talented in the country.  What players on the offensive side of the football need to have a big game in order for the Pack to have a chance in Tallahassee?

James Henderson: It all starts with Ryan Finley.  He's been outstanding through three games, but this will be his toughest test by far.  If he plays extremely well, NC State wins this football game.  It's that simple.

I also believe the Wolfpack's playmakers need to show up.  There are going multiple one-on-one opportunities against man coverage to make 50-50 plays on the ball.  NC State has to win a fair share of these chances to create huge scoring plays.

Rob McLamb: Nyheim Hines running the ball well and catching passes, either in the slot or out wide, will be important. Athletically, he is one player that can match up with FSU.
 
Kelvin Harmon giving NC State any production on deep balls will also be critical.
 
The offensive line probably is of the most importance for NC State when the Wolfpack has the ball. All the weeks of preparing against the Pack's D-Line will have to help State in Tallahassee.

Bryant Carson: All of them. Look, to get this defense on its heels and guessing State is going to have to execute all over the field. The OL is going to need to take a big step forward, particularly in run-blocking. Hines and Gallaspy will really need to grind hard to churn out as much positive yardage as they can muster when their numbers are called.

The outside WRs will constantly have to fight for 50-50 balls and the inside guys will have to create some space and then make some people miss after the catch. To challenge a defensive unit like FSU’s (or Clem’s) State will have to be creative in mixing things up in the play-calls and their offensive execution will have a small margin of error.

Jackson Williford: Everyone on the field for the Pack will need to play well if they want to leave Tallahassee with a win.

In the past against the Pack, Florida State has given up some plays across the middle of the field.  I think State needs to get the ball out quickly to avoid a Florida State pass rush that’s one of the best in the country. State’s offensive line has played one week together at full strength, and they’re going to need to show up and execute if they want to give Ryan Finley a chance. 

Having said that,  Finley will need to be prepared to find guys like Jaylen Samuels and even Nyheim Hines out of the backfield to get some quick completions if the offensive line does struggle. 

State would love to get some big plays through the air to keep the secondary on its toes.  Florida State just so happens to have two of the best corners in the country in Derwin James and Tarvarus McFadden. Stephen Louis and Kelvin Harmon are going to have to consistently battle against both of these talented guys to have a chance at completing the big plays we’ve seen them make.

The Wolfpack welcomes the return of Mike Stevens and Dexter Wright this week to a secondary whose performance so far this season has been that of a roller coaster.  Are you concerned about the secondary’s ability to execute this week, despite facing a true freshman quarterback?

James Henderson: Not really. 

I know a lot of people are, but I expect FSU to make some plays because they are talented and in football the other team will make some plays. 

NC State just needs to make more than Florida State.

Nick McCloud, Mike Stevens, Johnathan Alston, Tim Kidd-Glass, Shawn Boone, Jarius Morehead... I think State will be fine in the secondary. 

They just need to do enough to win the game.

Rob McLamb: The secondary will only do as well as the defensive line and linebackers allow them. If NC State cannot pressure Blackman, he likely will pick them apart. If the Pack also has trouble stopping the run, then FSU will see more man coverage -- which allows them the chance to take deep shots. Defense is an 11-man job.

Bryant Carson: Yes…very much so. Stevens coming back is great—he’s probably State’s best cornerback, but this will be game one for him coming back off an injury so I’m not sure it’s the best thing to expect a polished performance right out of the gate.

Dexter Wright was the chosen starter at the beginning of the season so that says something but he’s started one game so again I’d temper my expectations about how much his presence will change things for the secondary (also, Glass-Kidd did a pretty solid job in his stead). Being able to roll out McCloud, Stevens, Morehead, and Wright probably gives State the best chance of defending the Nole’s WRs but it’s still a tall task.

FSU is going to get open and they’re going to make plays—for the Pack secondary they need to tackle well after the catch and not allow a small gain to become a huge gain.
 
Jackson Williford: I am concerned about this matchup for the Pack’s secondary.  Blackman may be a true freshman quarterback, but Florida State is loaded with athletes all across the board.  They’ve got several 6’3, 6’4 receivers who can get down the field and make plays. 

They recruited arguably the top running back in the nation last year in Cam Akers, and they return all five starters across the offensive line from a year ago.  If State’s defensive line can’t get to Blackman and disrupt his rhythm early on, he has the talent and the pieces around him to take care of the Wolfpack early on. 
 
It’s definitely a welcome sign to see Mike Stevens and Dexter Wright back on the field, but they won’t be back at 100%.  Stevens has yet to play a competitive snap of football this season, and Wright was listed as questionable Thursday afternoon on the depth chart.  Both of these guys will come in and play meaningful snaps, but they will need time and reps on the field to get back into game shape. Even if they play well, it’s possible it won’t matter if Blackman has time to sit and the pocket and make plays.
 

It’s been three weeks since Florida State has played in a competitive football game, and NC State is still hungry after they lost a tight game against the Noles last year at home.  Do you think either of these play a role in the outcome of Saturday’s game?

James Henderson: Well, I think NC State has confidence going into this game because of last year.  They believe they can play with and beat Florida State.  Will they do it? I don't know, but I do think the close-calls give additional confidence.

As for Florida State's layoff, I'm not sure how it will impact.  I've been going back and forth on it and I feel it helps and hurts the Seminoles.  There's going to probably be some rust... you can simulate game action with your scout team, but it's not the same.

However, the time off has given FSU a chance to stay healthy, work James Blackman into the offense, and spend additional time scouting NC State.

Rob McLamb: Florida State's lack of game experience this season and the injury to Francois could both be mitigating factors, whether positive or negative remains to be seen. NC State's performance last season should lead them to believe they can be competitive.
 
The Wolfpack should look back on its effort at Clemson last season as an indication of what it is capable of. NC State stood toe-to-toe with the eventual national champion on the road and should have emerged victorious. That is the past event that is most relative to Saturday's game.

Bryant Carson: I could see FSU’s hiatus since September 2nd having an impact. On the one hand, they should be well rested and raring to go—also any of their players that got a little banged up but not seriously injured in the Bama game have had ample time to recover.

On the other side is missing those live, competitive snaps for three weeks while also replacing their starting QB with a true freshman who has only been on campus since late June. In my opinion that is more in State’s favor than FSU’s…BUT, at the end of the day, I doubt it’s enough to matter.

 As far as last year’s game leaving a bitter taste and State responding—no, I don’t think that plays a part here.
 
Jackson Williford: I’m intrigued to see how Florida State’s break affects them.  You’d think that missing two weeks of competitive game action might be a negative for the Noles, but I think they’ll be chomping at the bit to come out and play on Saturday.  Add in the fact that the state of Florida has been rocked by a hurricane and it’ll be the first home game of the season, and you’ve got a recipe for an emotional environment in Tallahassee.
 
On the other side, I think State will come into this game incredibly driven.  The loss in Raleigh last year was a painful one, and I believe they’ll go into the game thinking they owe the Noles.  

I believe playing Florida State close and nearly upsetting Clemson in Death Valley last year will give State confidence (in this game and moving forward) that they can hang with the ACC Atlantic contenders. One thing’s for sure, though: we’ll find out this Saturday.