As No. 11 seed NC State prepares to travel to Dayton for a First Four clash with No. 11 seed Texas on Tuesday night, we’ll break down the Longhorns' roster and what NC State needs to do to win.
Texas Longhorns Scouting Report
Record: 18–14 (9–9 SEC) | Coach: Sean Miller
Texas is an offensive-minded team that has been plagued by their defensive efficiency all year long. The Longhorns play at a slower pace with a 67.1 adjusted tempo rating, which ranks 193rd nationally.
Texas Roster Analysis
Leading Scorer: Dailyn Swain (Jr, 6'8" Wing). Swain is the statistical darling of this roster. With a 9.9 BPM and 26% Usage, everything runs through him. He is a high-level playmaker (20.8 Assist Rate) and is dominant on the glass.
The Frontcourt: Matas Vokietaitis (So, 7'0" Center). An elite finisher (62.1 eFG%) who dominates the offensive boards (11.6 OR%). He is the primary reason Texas ranks 3rd nationally in Offensive Rebounding.
Three-Point Specialist: Camden Heide (Jr, 6'7" Wing). Heide is the definition of efficiency. He has a 140.2 ORtg and shoots 45.9% from three. If he gets open looks, it’ll be tough for the Wolfpack to keep up.
The Backcourt: Jordan Pope & Tramon Mark. Experienced seniors who provide steady ball-handling and mid-range scoring. Pope is the high-volume threat, while Mark is a versatile wing defender.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strength: Offensive Rebounding - Texas grabs 35.7% of their own misses. This is their greatest weapon.
Strength: Shooting Versatility - They shoot 55.3% (Ranking 54th Nationally) on 2-pointers and have multiple threats (Heide, Swain, Pope) who can stretch the floor.
Weakness: Inability to Force Turnovers - Texas is ranked 346th in defensive turnover percentage at 13.4. This struggle has allowed opponents to run their sets comfortably.
Weakness: Perimeter Defense - Opponents shoot 36% from deep against them, ranking 301st. They struggle to close out on shooters when the ball moves quickly. This is exactly what NC State wants.
Keys to Victory for NC State
1. Neutralize 7-foot C Matas Vokietaitis
Texas is 34th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage at 35.7. Ven-Allen Lubin and Musa Sagnia cannot just contest shots; they must "find a body" and box out. If Texas gets 15+ second-chance points, NC State will struggle to keep up.
2. Win From Beyond the Arc
Texas allows a high 3-point percentage of 36%, and NC State is elite at shooting them. Paul McNeil, Darrion Williams, Tre Holloman, and Matt Able need to be aggressive. If the Wolfpack hits 10+ threes, they force Texas to play faster than head coach Sean Miller prefers.
3. Quadir Copeland: Control the Floor
Texas doesn't force turnovers, which should allow Copeland to pick them apart. However, he cannot get sloppy. He needs to exploit Texas’ turnover defense, which ranks 346th nationally, and find Lubin for dunks and McNeil for open threes.
4. Attack the Swain-Heide Matchup
Dailyn Swain is Texas's best player, but he carries a heavy load. Will Wade should use Darrion Williams and Quadir Copeland to attack Swain early, and get him into foul trouble. forcing him into tough 1-on-1 situations rather than letting him facilitate for Heide.
My Prediction: 11 NC State beats 11 Texas 84-81. NC State covers the -1.5pt spread in their favor and their three-point defense is improved from their first meeting during the Maui Invitational. NC State has the advantage over Texas in 3P% 38.8 to 35.3, Ast. Rate, 54.8 to 43.1, and Adjusted Tempo, 69.1 (85th), to 67.1 (193rd), and takes advantage of those on Tuesday night.
